tv Fast Money CNBC April 21, 2021 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
netflix today on the back of disappointing earnings dropping more than 7% for its worse day since november netflix is one the first major stay at home high growth names to report. did netflix just shoot off a major warning flare to invest y50rs that we're in for rocky earnings ahead, dan, what do you
now alphabet, microsoft,. >> how idiosyncratic do you think netflix is, tim? to when reid hastings said we had ten years of smooth and silk and now looks wobbly how specific is that to netflix versus high-growth stay at home names 234 -- in general. >> i will weigh in on netflix came into this as a high-multiple stock. it came into covid with a great chart. it wasn't that this was suddenly a stay at home stock it was re-rating around precash flow to maybe pay down some of that debt and break free on some of that heavy cap ex i think the story that la reeve
hal hasting, he's welcome the competition around this. it used to be the fall of linear tv meant the fall of many boats well this is many boats it is a high multiple stay at home stock, very different dynamics to me than zoom and peloton, i think this is a case where the streaming space is incredibly crowded. i think netflix, a lot of people two years ago were saying out of nowhere they had the best content. a year ago that's what we would hear about netflix look at disney can you even keep up meanwhile i think, hey, guess what, disney's content, i think, especially now we're seeing this quarterly crank process by their studio s i still think, the bar to clear yeah. >> yes, i think it's particular to netflix but i think the high
multiple tech stocks are to be watched. kd >> if you remember back two years when reeve also viewed video games and things that get people's attention as competition and with the reopening upon us that competition has expanded, the competition is going to have dinner with a friend, going to a movie, all the things we have not been able to do for the past year becomes netflix's competition. that said, dan, the slate of content is only going to get stronger later this year, they're on track in terms of profitability and pre-cash flow should we look at this dip as an opportunity? >> you said it, that was the thing that got investors excited in january when they announced q4, it was that precash flow
improvement because they invested in all that content now there will be a gap between what has been taken off and gone back to the streamers like peacock and hulu and disney plus so you're talking about attention to economy now we have as kids say we have stuff to do in irl guy knows what that means. we also have, what are we talking about this week with apple and spotify, we're talking about podcasts the list goes on and on for things that are vying for our attention here and reeve was right they're in a very competitive spot and to me the stock remains range bound and tim said it well, they pulled forward a lot of behavior, this company was not growing subs in north america coming into the pandemic so i suspect to see a deceleration ratio a lot of the met emricks people wer
deceleration allot of people were excited about >> look at tim's background i think he'll be going to the beach instead of streaming a french movie pete, would you say that this could in fact be an opportunity in netflix here with this pull back >> you know what, i don't know that i do see it as an opportunity. >> okay. >> i agree with what dan's saying, there's a lot of different aspects with what's going on with netflix specifically and what they did drawing out of the pandemic but out of the pandemic there's sporting events and concerts, a bunch of areas that will attract attention and eyeballs there's so many hours in the day, it's going to be a problem, and we know north america was slowing down the one positive potential for netflix international. we don't talk about that as much but we know over the last few years they've been growing, growing, growing internationally and i think they'll continue to do that but i think we'll have
to expect to see north america numbers to go down faster than expected. >> all right one top technician is starting to see trouble in the charts, chris is here to lay it all out, hey, chris, what do you see? >> you know, yeah, i think we're just at a point where we want to start to be a little bit mindful of the cycle we put out a note this morning to cliechnts time to raise our guard. i want to be prepared for the period that may be frustrated. i brought some charts, first one to show you, a reminder that we're about 13 months off the low and when you look historically at the two historical an lovings we historical -- was roughly in the 14 months off the bottoms where markets ran into trouble none of this proved fatal but
can be frustrating as we move into the weaker seasonal stretch of the calendar we're competing with this collision of expectations and reality in the first year of a new bull market it's very easy to beat expectations in the second year it gets more challenging. the second thing to be aware of, under the surface despite really good data in the last four or five weeks we've actually lost some pockets of the market, seen small caps diverge the 50-day moving average. the s&p. 80% is above the 40. that number is 40% for the russell too so there's a chunk of market cap not on the field last five or six weeks and is something we want to draw attention to in this seasonal period more importantly for us, in context of leadership, look ago the third chart, which is consumer discretionary, relative to consumer staples we printed
10% retail sales and consumer discretionary under perform in the aftermath of that. i think it all speaks to an environment where expectations are pretty big and might not be as easy looking up to -- living up to that going forward i want to focus on names that could offer relative strength, one in health care, amgen which has been essentially dead money for the better part of last 7 to 8 months breaking out above 260 level we think will be a big deal, it's turning relative verse the s&p. we seen the relative improve we seen the stock push against 260. i think it's on the verge of breaking out and going on to the next thing, despite strong data all of the gold stops, here's new mont corp just on the
verge of breaking out relative to the s&p i think an environment we're working towards a more difficulter pa the of the -- difficult part of the calendar and comps are aggressive we want to be on board >> can we broaden that statement and say amgen or health care, xlp is multi facetted let's say. >> absolutely and some of the big weights they're all getting better remar rema remarkable since the vaccine pause j&j should have gone down but didn't and there's a collection of big-cap health care names and collection of gold stocks here as well. firming. >> chris, thank you. >> thank you >> i asked because as you remember health care is
defensive area of this market. two strategist of the past week, not just strategist or technicians but two in the pan theon of technicians have recommended health care, karen >> yes, i like health care i focus mine on big cap pharma just a collection of lily, abbey pfizer, m erk because in the hunt for value these aren't always value stocks there's a bear case is the government going to negotiate prices more heavily, i don't is this they're much of a target any more. i don't buy for dividend yield but won't hold it against them if they have a good yield. i like this space. it's moved a lot in the last two weeks but i still think it has room to go it's hardly close to frothy. >> chris, like the minors a hat tip, i have to go to tim for the
action on these two. >> i like j&j it's not just pharma, upper single digits -- the gold call is really cool the great irony is everyone is talking about bitcoin as they should have we've seen consolidation there. gold's been left for dead. a lot of the low-hanging fruit in terms of balance sheet clean up is out of the way gold is dead money since summer down 13% or so i actually like the chart on gold getting back above the $100 about here we get to a off the record where we get to a period we have concerns with the broader market i think gold will outperform silver as well. >> we have chipotle company call under way let's get to ka trks e with the numbers.
>> the company sounding very upbeat on that conference call, big epsv this quarter with revenues coming in right in line, stores sales increase 17.2%, comps were highest in march and april off to a good start ceo said on that call. digital sales growing 134% year-over-year, accounting for 50% of sales slightly above the covid peek the company saw last year chipotle comp sales in the high 20's, 30% in the second quarter not giving fulg numbers due to ongoing uncertainty with covid cauley flower rice continuing to bring in new customers quesadilla are performing well along with c arne asada. it hoped 46 new companies in the
quarter and -- said the company will continue to make tech investments in the future and highlighted it's recent investment in robotic delivery company neuro that works guys domino's as well. we'll talk with brian niccol tomorrow on cnbc back to you. >> thank you, let's trade chip chipolte, do you think it's moving as it should. >> i'm surprised it isn't moving faster because brian niccol ever since he stepped into his role he's a satya nadel nadella did t like at microsoft came in and trans forred the company -- transformed the company digitally and he changed the cul
culture. that's why they are where they are today. and getting more tech. that's exactly what they are, they're becoming like a tech company in terms of the digitalization going forward i think it's a really, really interesting concept. yes they traded premium value that will come in a little bit because they're getting so much growth at least we'll start to see the valuation level drop down a little bit. if you look at the full year, raymond james came out few weeks ago very bullish on the numbers. they didn't wait for everybody to react the next day like on netflix today everybody seen the numbers and everybody down grades it. this particular analyst has a lot of positive talk about what's going on at chipolte and i think he's exactlyright. >> in terms of the full year how can analysts be sure s covid uncertainty is what the ceo said and i love the phrase
the collision between expectation and reality. are we going to see that this year maybe with chipolte, dan? >> yeah, well, we've already seen it this year, mel when you think about it last time the stock traded at an all-time high was mid-february and the stock sold off nearly 20% over the next few weeks. i think it's really important. you asked feet a great question ar you asked a great question of pete are you surprised the stock isn't moving after that guidance, point is, it has a text book guy adami top in around the 15, $1600 level so it will take even better news to break out a fbove the prior all-time highs and will take a market with better breadth. coming up, bitcoin bullets beware one sees bitcoin losing, get this, half its value straight ahead
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moving after hours let's break down the results kick-off it off now more on whirlpool quarters. >> housing boom continues to fuel the companies earnings doubling its operating profit. on "closing bell" it's ceo pointed to the underlying strength in the housing market driving demand for appliances like washing machines and sees an multi-year upside in the market and said the consumer focus on the home is not going away mentioning inflation pressure and higher cost and in response the company is raising prices 5 to 12% joining the likes of kimberly clark, proctor and gamble and coca-cola also hiking prices due to the raw material situation we're in right now. looking at shares of whirl 3pool about 30 up year-to-date >> tim you fast pitched this one, look at it now.
>> well, it's extraordinary the tailwind in the sector that has legs it to it and this isn't about a stay at home dynamic this is about a cycle that for most of covid has been highly constrained if you look at sales year-over-year even well through the end of 2020 they were down based on constraints and you're starting to see alleviation. some regional growth, emea is global not just north america, it's up 33 merpercent. north america up 19.8% they added buy back $2.5 billion roughly in a buy back. so, stock already going to these numbers, i think the bo barr is high, they crossed the bar, well every. >> karen if there was any sort of benefit of people at home during the pandemic and people using their appliances more, when that goes away there's no
impact on whirlpool, you think >> i think there will be an impact eventually but i don't know when that is going away remember, home building also right. so home builders are still in a huge bull market so i think we're going to see that for some time, this continued demand and remember there's also -- this is worldwide, so air y5us like latin american are behind us before they come back, we're a lot closer to coming back. on so many metrics this quarter was phenomenal, the bar was very high, it made me a little bit nervous given what great housing numbers we seen and yet they stepped over but to me the most important thing, it's broader than just whirlpool is the giant expansion in their margins despite raw material cost up 5% they were able to get a 6 plus percent improvement in their margin by
pricing and mix. so that to me is what i think is going to be the theme of this ee earnings season. what can companies do with the higher cost. >> yeah do they have pricing power. let's get to las vegas sands moving after hours, let's get to the details. >> the call just wrapped up and chairman and ceo blamed the quarterly results squarely on the pandemic and says it is impossible to predict when air travel will return to singapore because neighboring countries are still struggling with surge in infections we're told vaccines are starting to return to something more normal in march, mckhouw started to pick up. the junk its, the vip have been slow the coo says it stands at 20% of pre-pandemic levels.
premium mass, the big lenders that deal directly with the casinos, that's now at 50% of pre-pandemic levels and expecting that trend to t. on the boarder of hong kong tent i on the call. and las vegas is booming we dived into that good news for apollo and v 2 which are buying the operations and real estate here one more note. the lady sheldon used to start the calls with yay dividend it stood at 79 cents last year before it had to get yanked because of closures but the coo said it is the corner stone of the plan to return capital but the dividend can't be restored until operations return to a baseline level, they're hoping that will be some $500 billion -- $5 billion rather, not $500 billion -- in asia. melissa. >> allison was very
anti-internet gaming, i wonderfuler how much that changed under the new leadership. >> on the coal, quote, we have . >> on the call, quote, he says we have a voracious appetite in north america, potentially europe or south america not in asia he said because we sold the las vegas properties and operations we have the capital to invest and we're going to go into it in a way that is smart and targeted >> contessa brewer, thanks how are we feeling about lvs stocks >> lvs international exposure is what we're talking about that's where the revenue really comes from so they're still dealing with a lot of different headaches and variants and everything else. i do think however when we start to see that opening start to really accelerate which i believe we will, we'll see the vaccines distribute much faster and going forward, i think the sky is the limit quite frankly
for a company like this. i love your question about the internet gambling, mel i think that's the real key. they got to get themselves logged into that spot and they have the cash to do it, they can do it, they will do it, sounds like it's an absolute automatic they're going to do that that combination means the stock can go a lot higher in the future. >> would you rather be more exposed to a vegas casino operate y50r opposed to the -- operator opposed to the u.s. internationals with the reopening, dan >> great question. pete hit it we know wynn and lvn have that exposure but once it's more global when we get herd immunity mckhouw will be a rocket ship and you want the most 1k3 explosion there in the u.s. you get trickle back to vegas, you got legal gambling
and specific plays online but i think you probably want to be in a win at that point and play for a move back to peek sales which hopefully comes sooner than two years is what consensus is expecting right now. >> we got a lot more ahead on "fast money" here's what's coming up next. >> the alibaba blues, what's got the stock stunk in a funk, the details in that trade ahead. but first, we've got to reach for the stars, over the fence, world-series kind of fast pitch for you. karen and dan are both taking the mound making their bull case for the same stock grab your cracker jacks because you're not going to want to miss this we've got that and a lot more when "fast money" returns. ke, is the same company we'll trust to bring us back together. cisco. the bridge to possible.
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i'd agree with you then we'd both be wrong. >> remember that iconic "fast money" moment. now karen and dan are teaming up to pitch their idea, they arm wrestled to see who would go first, karen is the starting pitcher, take it away. >> our collective fast pitch is viacom, obviously a lot in the news lately. it was an innocent bystander in a speculative frenzy the stock went slightly north of 100, they take the escalator up and elevator down this was a rocket ship up and elevator driven by a margin call down, the likes of which we've never seen to me, i always come back to valuation. here we are at ten and half
timeouts earnings and linear business we know there's a secular decline but this still has tremendous value and we'll see improvement in ad spending as the world reopens and there's a lot of value in that legacy business, they've signed a lot of new cable bill so it's not dead yet the other thing is paramount plus is a new streaming access they're going to start $4.99 subscription in june. if you take out some reasonable valuation of the legacy business you have streaming business that strayeds at -- trades at a significant, significant discount to netflix and disney, as it should, it should trade at a fraction of those but not at this fraction which is tiny that's another chance for 1r58
value i'm long viacom. i would buy it right here. >> let's bring in relief pitcher, dan, what's your case >> always relief to karen, i'll take that spot listen, i think the valuation case she makes is a great one when you think of that paramount plus business and you think of the stock trading at ten times and you expect earnings and sales to be rising in the next few years you have a stock that isto be really cheap and if it were to be revalued on that one portion of the business you have a stock at least $50 if you look at the chart innocent bystander but they took advantage of that move at $85 they sold over $2 billion worth of stock they have that on their balance sheet here and if you also look exactly where this stock stopped to the penny as our friend carter would say it's right at the break out from early january so really good technical
support, they just raised cash and have favorable valuation i like karen's set up. i think it makes sense playing for a move back above 50 in the not so distant future. >> tim has a question for somebody either karen or dan. >> i think i got to talk to the starting pitcher who was painting the corners early you talked about the absurdity of the move. how much of this, dan's talked about this too, how much of this is just the chaos of the capital markets versus a streaming business that i think the market doesn't impute enough value relative to where they are people didn't think they were going to be here a year ago. >> right well, first i want to establish, was a taken out -- do i have a relief pitcher because i was taken out of the game? or i just did such a good job. >> you know, it's our only
metaphor for two people, aces on the mound, all sorts of mixed metaphors going on, just look past it, what's your answer? >> all right so this shake out, we saw giant puke out end of march and then more dribbling of puke out i think that's what this last bit was, they don't tell us exactly why but i think this dynamic was so much more the unwinding of the archegos and everybody who lent money to them disaster than it was a commentary on streaming so we haven't seen that yet and i hope it gets more credit than what's embedded which is not a lot. >> no more questions, time to vote, are you buying karen and dan's pitch on viacom pete what do you say. >> one thing i would add to this is the short position is still very large, these guys are right on it, and i think the stock could move quickly i'm going to say viacom is a buy. >> could have been a three-way
fast pitch tim what do you say? >> yeah i'm a buyer of karen and seller of dan. which -- [ laughter ] all right, i'm a buyer of the whole thing. what can i tell you. just kidding i think the streaming business with 35 million subs is well, well under-valued here you know how i felt about the legacy players growing streaming business i think it's worth something. >> all right, time to vote, are you buying karen and dan's double play fast pitch that didn't work either vote on our twitter pole on cnbc "fast money" we'll get results at the end the show up next attention all hodlors a 50% haircut is what one crypto is calling for next power, we can harness the energy of the tiny electron. we can create new ways to connect.
where prices are going >> given the massive month of in bitcoin things are very frothy and i think we're going to have to have a major correction in bitcoin. i said it before, i think we can pull back to 20,000 to 30,000 on bitcoin which would be a 50% decline. >> you might recall in november googlen heim disclosed it's macro opportunity fund held the right to invest 10% net asset in gbtc gray scale asset trust so where do we think bitcoin is now, dan >> if you look back at the history of bitcoin it's had no shortage of 50% peak to trough declines and is still much greater this year it's up 100% year-over-year, largest peek to trough was in january 30% and got smaller each month since 26% in february, 18% in march this
one is about 15% now so i think there's a lot of hodlors as they say who would welcome a healthy pull back and get out the weak hands and let them reload. these people, you know their price target is much higher than $65,000 where it was just last month. >> and minerd is overall bull on bitcoin this is short-term phenomenon he's forecasting. what's interesting something goes up and there's search for atascadoro 5set with gsh -- asset with other alt coins if you take out bitcoin and ethereum the market share gone up to 34% from 16% in the past three months an interesting phenomenon we're interesting. i won't even bring up doge coin, there's plenty other alt coins not created as jokes, there's
plenty other places to go on this >> i'm not going to comment on doge pan ter pantera, incredible heavy metal band >> i have no idea. >> if you look at the broader market, the validation continues to grow. so scott could be riot and i think -- right and i think dan is right if you look at january, february and march we had pull backs of 20 to 30% in each month we all kind of said, yeah, so what. so look, i think the broader digital universe is really the question of where is the efficacy and what are truly underlying and i think evening e.r.a.ium has a lo ethereum is the back bone behind much that will be built, whether true or not, that's an argument not
terribly frothy. >> if you believe in defi you probably believe in ethereum pete your thoughts on crypto. >> if you are looking for volatility that's where you look, we're trading at 17, 18 vix and staying tight in there. if you want volatility it's certainly there. scott minerd i have all of the respect in the world for him, i think he's one of the smarter guys on wall street and he's very, very accurate as well so for him to say that i don't think he's just throwing it out there. i think he actually believes that, i think it's a possibility, don't know if it's a strong possibility but the move this last week 51,000 to open at 56 shows what kind of volatility we're talking about. >> yeah. coming up bye-bye baba, the traders are breaking down the move next and vote on our fast pitch are you buying karen and
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today, down 4 mercedes percen today, down 4% in the past week. karen what's your take on this weakness. >> this is a thorn in my side not only alibaba but ten cent all down specific to alibaba one they lower their fees for merchants part of the anti-trust settlement we saw last week. the second week i just mentioned. the raising $10 billion peloton want to compete with alibaba they're kind of the alibaba services thing thing, jack ma there was a story i don't know if it's officially denied he would be selling i think isolating him from the story is a positive if that happened. one thing soft bank increased margin loan backed by alibaba
stock to $10 billion so we're all sensitive to the idea to stock that's being collateral for margin loan. i don't know if that was weighing on it as well i think the stock was so sick of going down it managed to end the day only down very slightly. i put on this today a 242 61 call spread for may earnings maybe i will call it into "options action" on friday and see what people think. maybe peek and opine i wanted more exposure. >> that would blowup on the twitter verse. tim, do you think it is at anti-crack down beijing is imposing on dozens of internet companies there? >> yeah and i think you remove the value of some of the investments in the end and even ali pay and i think, look, i love the fact that there's a fine that's been paid and a page turned and i think not a lot of
look back on this. i think they're gmv, their dominance is not really rooted in pushing merchants around, i mean if you want to do a sum of the parts on this just their e commerce business and just the cloud business $250 stock doesn't account for the balance sheet or $40 a share in media assets or $10 a share in some of their broader investment services of i think there's naturally concerns about big brother in china i think it's over done but the stock trades awfully and it's been frustrating for shareholders. >> coming up, intel earnings are on deck and traders are betting on a major surge we'll bring you the trade. stay tuned
so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. wawrinka . welcome back to "fast money." intel stock just about doubled gains in the et f this year so what should we expect from this report pete you mentioned satya nadella i mean is pat gelsinger going to be the satya of intel? >> he might be
honestly, i think he's the right guy for the job. they've had to go through some ceos of late and a lot of stumbling along the way. i think he's the right guy he came back to intel, rejoins them, they have $21 billion in free cash flow this guy, they will pay for the manufacturer cost just on cash flow i like what he's doing so far early. >> let's get a preview for the set up for intel on the options pitch. mike, what do you see? >> yeah so despite the fact intel has lagged the broad market and semis in the last month call option outpace put option in the last month and true again today calls outpacing puts by two to one options action, weekly seven calls 97 trading for 44 cents implying more than 60% move to the upside seems some institutional traders are betting the languishing stock could turn around in
earnings >> thanks for that more "options action" on friday at 5:30 eastern time it is the last call to vote for karen and dan's fast pitch do you think viacom cbs is a buy? head to twitter. we got results after this quick break. you run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. could've used that before i hired my interior decorator. voila! maybe a couple throw pillows would help. get a strategy gut check from our trade desk. ♪♪
final trade is sponsored by interactive brokers the professional's gateway to the world's markets. welcome back it is time to finds out if you are buying dan and karen's tag team fast pitch on viacom. and grand slam another misplaced sports metaphor, more than 68% of you voted yes. congratulations dan and karen. time for the final trade, karen? >> i'm going with my power trade viacom and thanks to my dan rivera closer there. >> your metaphor is fine, mel, alibaba is also fine >> all right pete >> i'm going with facebook, mel, i think it's going higher. >> dan >> yeah, i like the call on amgen i like the s&p --
>> thank you for watching "fast money" see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now . my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. who gets the benefit of the doubt? when you look at today's action, dow gains 31