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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  April 20, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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ratings. really talking about the fact the company is up and coming company but it's been around 23 years. stock is up 832% >> josh, quick name. >> watching zillow no purchase. >> doc, quick. >> spiker puts >> thank you exchange is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. here is what's ahead this hour apple is kicking off its product event right now. we have new air pads, air pods may be the long rumored air tags we'll talk about it and get the breaking details legendary investor bill miller joins us today he'll tell us what he thinks is the big risk to the market if you're look to hedge the market, look no further than the letter j we'll explain what begins with the market >> we have a down day working on
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two straight down days in a row. maybe not huge the dow industrials, 33,833, below the 34,000 mark. 4131 the last rate for the s&p slightly bigger losses for the nasdaq composite today it's the emergennergy stos the reopening trade. hot for the last six months is now taking very much a breather. look at today. travel and leisure related stocks, reopening type trade stocks united airlines off by 9%. it was a earnings catalyst there. carnival on the cruise side down 5% the live nation for concerts down about 4% as well. even simon property group, big retail mall owner down about 2.25% now. watch the reopening trade coming off profit taking there and kelly, you just mentioned it apple, the s&p 500 off by 1%
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now. nearly doubled in price. that's not since the pandemic lows remember, we are now down roughly 8% from the record highs that we saw at the heights, $2.4 trillion company right now closer to 2.2 trillion in total market cap. we'll see if the product announcements in the coming hour are enough to get csome traders excited about the stock. >> apple is where we begin as the company kicks off the first product launch event josh is standing by with what we can expect >> we don't know what coming but the report suggests that tim cook's company could announce new hardware today the ipad has been a true bright spot ipad revenue jumping 41%
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the key question, ha does growth look like as people are vaccinated and now return to school and work. it's not just the ipad perhaps apple could add the new in house processor idc saying mac shipments search 112% to 6.7 million units in q1. apple could announce a new paid subscription option within its podcast app. that's according to journal that will allow listeners to compensate directly. emphasizing new digital services and capitalizing on a popular trend. this year e marker saying nearly 118 million americans will listen to a podcast, at least once per month kelly, back to you >> thanks and we'll see you again soon as we track th casey newton is with me now. steve, there's a lot of
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spaeksp speculation. they call this spring loaded >> it's really the services front that i'm interested in especially apple tv which has been faltering since it launched at the end of 2019 if you ask me, the only show worth watching on there is ted lasso which is an amazing show but there's not enough there to really keep people subscribed to the service. they have been extending their free trial it was a year and a year and change and now it's a year and a half from the original launch date it's clear apple thinks people won't be able to have enough to watch to start paying for it
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>> that will be really interesting to watch jim is also emphasizing how important wearable had been as a category they may say something about air pods the watch is core to a lot of the different things they have going on how big should that be for them and how ard is it going to be take to take market share from spotify? >> podcast really started as a business on apple's eco system it's a huge opportunity for them for a really long time at the same time i think you can see a lot of backlash to an announcement if it breaks the open eco system that podcasts open in right now. apple will want to play here but a lot is riding on how they communicate and what the exact terms are for these podcasts
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creators >> let's talk about the ios updates that may be coming this would basiaffect users mos unless they are buying one of the new devices and this is the controversial operating system that would shut off add blocking for some apps like facebook, right? >> that's right those on the privacy side or anti-facebook side are really excited about this it remaps to be seen what potential negative affects it could have on other tech businesses >> right we're starting to get headlines in here. i want to quickly mention some of the hardware launches that we're likely to hear how important are they i think it's called mini led screen technology that should have better battery life on the ipad and that sort of thing.
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are these ground brak breaking how important is the apple chip that might be in new computers at a time there's a big chip shortage like josh was saying, ipads have been a huge pandemic gadget for people as people are working and playing from home. these are the devices people like when it comes to the m1 clhips that's a really good point they are slowly moving away. just about every mac will have the apple chip instead of the intel chip inside of it. huge opportunity for them to keep growing that mac business which has languished over the last five or six years >> shares of spotify down. apple is launching a newly designed podcast a which includes channels the find new
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show and paid podcast subscription like you said, it may come down to who is in the eco system and what the details are >> exactly my big question i just learned the seeing the headlines is allow will it work if you don't use apple podcast player is this going to require do you be in the apple app or if you're using an overcast. you'll have to up end your podcast listening. there are a will the questions to be answered here. i think you can't understand state what a significant ship this is for the podcast industry i'm not sprurprised that spotif is taking a dip. >> apple created the podcast category but has fallen completely behind. how is now trying to catch up? >> so, what apple did do was create easy ways for the people who make podcasts to make money. you saw this whole alternative eco system spread up on patreon
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and other channels a will the of people started discord server to have a way to monetize their audiences it's sort of resettles the entire landscape for creators depending on how hard they go into it. it's hard to think of a bigger shift for the podcast mystery than apple deciding it wants to monetize directly. >> a new color for the iphone 12, purple what do you think is the most important for investors at this hour >> what i'm really looking at too is the stuff they're not going to be talking about during the event which is these kind of bubbling threats happening at apple. we know the facebook battle which we mentioned and coming up on may 3rd there's the epic versus apple trial which will hinge on the way the app store works and could.
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>> gentlemen, we'll see you soon as we learn more from this event. take a quick break coming up, legendary bill miller tells us why he's a bitcoin pl believer another payment company get sb s into the crypto space. the exchange is back after this. i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests.
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and with fast, nationwide 5g included - at no extra cost? we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction... ...and learn how much you can save at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. welcome back stocks may be lower again today but they still had quite a run with the dow and s&p up about 10%. there's lots of great concerns out there. rising bond yields, inflation, covid concerns still let's talk about the risk and reward with bill miller. he's the chairman and chief i vester it's great to have you book. the miller opportunity trust is up 17% year to date. out outperforming the s&p. you know are up multiple times since the bottom last year,
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which you called on this show about week before it happened. i just read you sold out of your gamestop is that true before the big run up in january. you had the same narrative before the retail crowd. they were a little too late for you. >> we have gamestop in our deep value product and i think our cost on it was around four or something. >> it doesn't sound like tit's a disaster do you have any opinion on those so called name stocks. sdplp they are not of interest because they are in the grip of the reddit crowd they're not -- it's not able to analyze them in the same way you would other things because the price is dominating on the middles. >> one interesting characteristic of this market is what's happening to the short
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sellers. it's a great piece of some of the major players in this space. their assets are dwindling it's been a difficult environment to short end you're on a lot of the other side of these favorites. you don't mind taking the risks. you have companies like far fetch. you've been an amazon holder forever. what do you think happens as the rally goes on if short selling is becoming unprofitable or maybe they have been betting on the wrong sectors. >> short selling is always a tough thing because the market goes up about 70% of the time. 70% of the year, 70% of months and if you're short and it goes against you then it becomes a bigger problem and if you're long and you're wrong, it's smaller part of your portfolio it's mathematically difficult. >> wa names are you interested in now are you looking sort of through the lens of the post-pandemic period, are there any emerging technologies or growth companies
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that you city are attractive we have been in a lull for the last few months. >> there market is physical therapily valued now those names have corrected they are still expensive on a short term basis but we're not in them for the short term i think in the spac area which i think the game is largely winding down now and many of the spacs that came public came extraordinary expensive valuations but now some of them are corrected. it was 30 and now it's 11 b it's like 3-d printing but the next wave of that.
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we think some of the spacs are attr attractive next wave nuinsurance company is at a 7 now we like that one there's some valuation discrepancies in the overall market i think the big fang stocks are attr attractive >> attractive. >> amazon, alphabet, facebook. we own them. we don't apple anymore we should have kept it i think they are all fine. a name like vroom has a management team with built booking.com is 100 million dollar market cap company. that's name we think you could make multiple times your money in next three or four years. sd >> are you concerned about being invested in stocks in general when talking about 19% budget
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deficits huge debt numbers and open questions about which way inflation and rates are headed >> no. not at all in term ts of you might have asked me before what i worry about and my general comment is i don't worry about much of anything bauds everybody else is worried. they have the cover in the overall market i think we're looking for opportunities in the market. i think there's plenty of them out there. general motors is very att attr attractive gm, i love the line up the valuation between it an tesla is way too big >> do you think interest rates are going higher >> the 30-year treasury was down almost 10% in first quarter. for something that's supposed to protect you and be a bull work
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in your portfolio, that's the worst quarter in four years for the 30-year treasury there's only one other quarter in history that was worse than that and that was in 1980 when inflation was in the process of peaking. i think it's backed off from the 175 but the fed wants inflation to run ot for a while meaning over 2%. it's a negative rate of return there's a massive amount of money that flowed into bonds over the past ten years because we were in midst of a gigantic bull market. >> i want to go back to the deficit issue. how do we get resolve? how do we figure much smaller and is that going to be the kind of resolution that constrains growth or whether it's in particular states or parts of the country? i'm curious if you have any concern about that >> again, i don't because it's unknowable larry summer has only a
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one-third chance the current stimulus program won't end badly one way or the other on the other side is chairman powell and secretary yellen who is not worried about it. you have economic heavy weights out with different opinions and i don't think it's clear what the ultimate outcome is going to be we don't have to wait to see that we know what's going on now. we'll have a big boom with the stimulus and on top of the reopening of the economy >> then let me circle back to crypto which is kind of related to the questions we'll see dollar debasement and all these different things and there are people in it after hearing what you and stan said last fall and realizing the institutional interest will keep growing and growing. they figure they will ride that wave bit coin is up -- i want to say it was around 14 it's up about four times since we spoke in value. how much more upside is there?
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even if you think there's upside, is there a lot more upside, do you think >> it's too bad we had video difficulties i was going to have my bitcoin hat on when you asked me that, baseball cap bitcoin, there are many, many different ways to look at bitcoin. the simplest one is just supply and demand you mentioned the mainstream of it and the institutional acceptance of it i think supply is growing 2% a year, and demand is growing faster that's all you need know and that means it's growing higher it will have these kinds of follow up days it was down 20% over the weekend. back in 2017, which was a bubble i don't think this is bubble at all in pbitcoin. i think this is beginning of mainstreaming of it. even back then during the bubble, it went down 20% on five different occasions. volatility is the price you pay for pmerformance and i think it'
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like digital gold. that's the first stop. it's about 10, trillion dollar asset category and bitcoin is $1 trillion it's infinitely divisible. it can be sent anywhere in world if you have a smart phone. it's a much better version then there's $15 trillion of negative yielding of bonds out there. >> do all of these arguments extend to other crypto whether it's videos on social media or you name it, there's this constant interest in chasing the next big crypto performer and a lot of them are up way mr than bitcoin do you disabble in those or sti with bitcoin
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>> i don't there's exploex of new technologies that come along with it. now we have 8 or 10,000 of these icos those things lock in and there's a dom nants company or dominant entity that's why the trust people are going after amazon and google and facebook because those companies are so dominant. i think bitcoin will be the dominant technology in this e americaning asset category >> maybe in our next chat we can talk about what regulators may or may not do about that it still feels a little ways off. we really appreciate it. >> great, thanks the letter of the day is j you just heard it alluded to if you're looking for a market hedge, look no further than the tenth letter of the alphabet he'll join us to explain mainch
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. welcome back we're getting a lot of headlines out of the apple event going on this hour. let's get right over to josh liptoen. >> let's start with the hardware new iphone accessory, air tags these will be small disks that you can attach to various items. the disks would help you find them and track them. taking advantage of apple's excite existing find me app.
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29 bucks a four pack for $99. i would not sleep on this hardware if it works as advertised, you can see how it solves a pain point for people especially as we get vaccinated and go out in the world, offices, gyms and schools. apple tv 4k. apple promises a new level of performance. massive upgrade. complete he redined. remote apple like every other tech giant this is not a big revenue generator and another way to market the company's streaming service. starts at 179. available the second half of may. also talking about the mac apple adding its new custom processor to more macs that's the company's new faster, more efficient chip. apple introducing the m1 equipped imac. it's been on a tear due to the work from home trends and tim
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cook wants to keep the momentum going with his new machines and new subscriptions as well. apple launching the podcast subscription next month. e-marker says 118 million americans will listen to a podcast. that's up 107 million in 2020. you can understand the enthusiasm here. >> can we stick the air tags on our kids >> i know. it's a good question maybe they give you a discount if you do that i think it's new hardware. i do think it's interesting. if it works as advertised especially right now as people are going back into the world, it's something everybody can relate to. you're misplacing these items around the house, i could see how that could be a winner for a will the of consumers. >> i think you're right. josh, thank you. we'll see you soon let's check on markets now
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dow is down 350 at the lows. it's been a tough market stretch the last day or so we're down 300 nasdaq the worst performer let's check the sectors real quickly as well where real estate and consumer staples are leading the way today. it has a rates sheen to it, if you will energy and consumer discretionary are lagging. we're seeing individual movers shares of kansasson are higher after they got a $325 a share workhorse and lords town all downright now about 2 to 6%. tobacco stocks are under pressure that the biden administration could target nicotine levels.
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philip morris is positive by 2.5% let's get over to rahel for cnbc news update this hour. >> the biden administration is taking steps to protect the nation's electric grid from cyber attack it's calling for a public/private effort over the next 100 days. nordstrom has hundreds of positions to fill throughout the state. white visiting a construction site, prime minister british boris johnson threatening to support legislation that would stop the planned soccer super league. johnson likened the new league to a cartel that restricts competition and does not benefit fans with pandemic restrictions easing, weddings are back in big way. many companies are getting ready the tie the knot now you can follow one couple on their trip to the altar tonight. the fall is kpp xpected to be t busiest time of the year love is back in the air. so happy the see it.
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>> it's going to be tough for a lot of the businesses who had no business last year they will have double or triple. >> it's a good problem to have venmo gets into crypto p and g is raising prices. it's all ahead in rapid fire - welcome to three brothers bakery. - we have cinnamon, apricot, and raspberry. - we have a location that has experienced four floods, a fire, a hurricane, and obviously now we're in the pandemic. this is during hurricane harvey. the water was like a river. - when you talk about nasdaq, people don't think about insurance or catastrophe risk but that's a product they offer. we have 12 companies that build these models. for example, we have fathom. they are experts in building flood catastrophe models and we get it through our nasdaq platform. so insurers would be able to provide the right guidance to janice and people like her project forwards the risk and actually use that to advise the policy holder
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where they buy their house or where they buy their next commercial property. - now we have this predictive flood modeling that we can go to and find out if it's gonna flood there or not. and if it's not, then guess what? we get to sleep easier. we get to go on a vacation. we get to grow.
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welcome back let let's catch you up it's time for rapid fire here to break down the head liliepheadline are julia and michael. i think we can say earnings now instead of just results. you know where i'm going with that we're keeping an eye on subscriber growth and on that controversial password crackdown. stocks been on pause this year but it's been up so much since disney plus launched, netflix is way ahead of the competition. mike, where are we on the netflix story after such a humongous run up in pandemic
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what happens next? >> even before the pandemic. it's up say 450% or something like that. it's really just consolidated those gains. i would amend the point about the launch of disney plus because if you date it to the april 2019 investor meeting that disney had that detailed the strategy and things like that then disney has outperformed netflix. there's been a bit of a push/pull and it's developing as these two or maybe the core of somebody streaming menu. there used to be a concept of core and explore you play around the edges and i think the market is viewing it that way with the two players. >> mike's point about disney is more impressive because we had a pandemic in the meantime netflix is the pure play if you want the subscription business and not deal with the real world stuff. >> absolutely. if you look at the chart, it's like comparing apples an fruit salad.
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it's a business that's done well during the pandemic and the theme park which has truggled. back to netflix, it's interesting looking at the stock's pmerformance because it' under performed the nasdaq the company has warned a lot of subscriber growth could be a pull forward in growth it would have seen this coming year it will be interesting to see just how much the subscriber growth slows in q1 and in q2 how much should investors be watching netflix results and the share reaction as a lens on what happens to the hwhole part of th market or the market overall in is it a bellwether >> because the dynamics of netflix, consumer pay for it,
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it's a little less a play on the long term kind of net worked economy that facebook and alphabet are good information it's first one to report in terms of that response reflex. i wouldn't say it's going to color it >> let's talk about procter & gamble conflation being such a hot topic. price hikes. p and g shares up about 1% they said in the fall they will bump up prices on baby products and feminine care brands others are hiking prices scott toilet paper, hormel turkey products and smucker raised prices on jif
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have you noticed prices going up >> it's interesting you mention that i think of e-commerce. i live in san francisco which couldn't be more expensive i feel like i'm on the other side of the spectrum you think about e-commerce to come in and subsidize what would be expensive you could come in and game market share and offer cheaper prices which amazon has done and they may end up doing that here. they could subsidize that business and make a ton of money on aws we'll see. >> we have seen this with some companies like brandless or others where they say or look at the success of costco and k kirkland this is the risk the companies are running. either they will raise prices and get under cut where investors willing to finance the losses or every one will be raises prices across the board and having a different conversation in six months >> yeah, i think it's interesting because procter &
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gamble said as they raise prices they will try to add more bells and whistles, more features so people feel like ta are getting more when they buy the pack of diapers more expensive i think it will be interesting to see if that works there's only so many technologies you use to improve diapers as the prices go through the roof i think that will be the question if they have a sense some company will be making a value play and others will be playing up the premium nature. >> it's a great point. the stock itself up 14% over the past year. it's not that great. is this going to be a catalyst for them if you're entering a better margin environment. >> i think it's a pretty good reminder that stocks and consumer stocks have been a great hedge against inflation in the very long term they capture the price increases. over time they are able to c
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compounds food companies i think all those things together suggest they aren't necessarily going to be leading the market higher. we have great cyclical expansion story but they can hold their own. >> do you want to bet against oprah. this company has some super star backers. the wall street journal said they sold 200 million dollar steak that included oprah, former ceo of star buck, howard schultz and jay-z. what do we think the valuation could be now >> it's all about the total addressable market that's ha people are talking about. how big is the opportunity for o oatly aside from oat milk.
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you might have celebrities replacing dairy milk with oat milk how far can you expand into other food products with just oats unless they get into meat subst substitutes. i'm a big oatly fan. >> you're required it's like showing a driver's license when you open your fridge >> the hemp milk, cashew milk. i've tried them all. oat milk is my favorite. >> i would say los angeles is plastered with ads for the yogurt and ice cream i think there's opportunity for these plant based ice creams can get pretty expensive one estimate the retail value of the dairy industry is expected to hit 7 billion dollar by 2025. if companies really invest in these other things like the ice creams or the cheeses, that's where they will be able the grow that addressable market even
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larger >> mike, there's tons of dairy and gluton do i think this will be a huge category, absolutely why does oatly have to be successful in that category? >> there's a brand head start is not worth nothing. there's oatly in my fridge i have a gen zer at home who uses it in her ice coffee. the way we get the revisionist stories about have you seen this stuff about the process of making oat milk results in a high sugar product >> is that true for steel cut? >> i don't think so. i think it's just the oat milk my point is what american food industry does is it creates kind of a sugar delivery system out of what started out a healthy thing whether it's yogurt or cereal or anything else.
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>> yeah. we'll have a documentary if we keep going it's like you avoid one problem and fall headlong into another are they a 2 billion dollar company still? do we know yet >> what i was reading this morning, it looked like 7 billion. it varies. the last probably valuation was two billion. >> finally, another big name is jumping into crypto today. venmo will allow users to boy and sell four different coins. why does venmo need to get involved >> venmo needs to hit
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profitability. through scare aquare and othersa sk coin base. that's an extremely profitable business they already have the partnership. it's relatively easy to launch it with venmo. a lot of crypto traders are excited about this it does peg them against square and cash up. those are the two rivals in the peer to peer payment space you can send crypto to other people that's a feature that could be in the works venmo and paypal have been seeing this as an opportunity to bring crypto to the masses once you can start sending,
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doing everything on venmo, in crypto that's when you know crypto hit the mainstream you can watch your friends doing things with crypto that might make even more people excited to get into it. >> as robinhood is cracking down but it's okay for venmo to use social to enecourage more crypt. >> social apps generate more engagement it's true here, instra gram and everywhere else. we know people buying something because it seems like the thing to buy you separate from the high mind and long term vir stues of the crypto block chain economy >> so well put we'll lever it there thank you. it's great rapid fire. coming up, there may not be a better market hedge. why he's expecting continued
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dovishness out of the fed. it's financial literacy month. cnbc is sharing messages about the importance of financial education. here is bridgewater's ray. >> when i was a kid, i did odd jobs i cadsdied and mowed lawns i put my money in the stock market because stocks were lot at the time. the first stock i bought was a company that was the only company i ever heard of that was selling for less than $5 share it turned out the company was about to go broke. somebody acquired it and it triple wahoedd. plap
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. welcome back stocks hover your all time highs, experts are worried the rising inflation could not only crash the party but maybe stick around for a long time not my next guest. he says there's no better hedge
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against risk than the jerome powell and secretary janet yellen david, it's great the see you again. i want you to come on for everybody and this includes every one for some folks buying crypto to larry lindsay who laid out a strong case of why he's concerned about inflation. why don't you agree? most people would say of course the ten-year should be at 3% would you agree with that or no? do you think that is unlikely? >> no. i don't agree with that. i think there's a chance with some of these base effects and a few of the short term reopening issues that we could get a pop in inflation we'll get that base affect pop we're comparing to march, april may when the economy collapsed we lost 22 million jobs. prices collapsed, activity collapsed. now we'll lose those pieces of ma march, april may so the comps will look amazing against such a
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terrible backedbackdrop that's for inflation and other economic activity i understand ind -- indicators we'll be back to where we were back in january, february of 2020 we had a 3.5% unemployment rate. 8.5 million people more employed, and we still couldn't hit the fed's inflation target we had been missing the target like something like 60 to 70 basis points since 2012. i do understand, people love it, because it's a good story. it's not a good story to say, hey, inflation will be denied because of technology and economics and excess debt levels. >> and i'm sitting here saying i could totally see your argument and totally see the other case i can see why you're saying we haven't hit the target and the
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thing is if we do have a bigger labor force it probably will be a much better outcome for so many other reasons. >> what if we don't? what if there's a scenario that we're not going to get labor force going back up, we're going to get big wage pressures. i mean, could this, even if it's lasting, still stick around for several years' time? >> what's really interesting, kelly, is actually low labor force rates, as labor forces tend to contract in places like japan, scandinavia, northern europe and eventually in china, we see demand go down. we don't get the worker shortages, because you don't hire someone if you can sell the product you're making that was
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the same kind of category of size, we just saw a huge demand increase i don't worry about the shortage of workers story the other interesting thing, and i think about this a lot you have a lot of ceos coming on, talking about how the pandemic has changed their business, how technology has changed their business i worry that a lot of the technological advances that will take place over the next decade all started to take place much faster in response to the pandemic as they go to hire back who they need, those companies that have an internet strategy, a tech strategy, are the ones that survive, they're going to plow more into that and won't need the same amount of workforce they needed before that 4 million down to zero, that might be a harder thing to get down in the second half of the year.
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i don't think people are thinking about it that way they're extrapolating these trends of, like, millions of jobs a month i don't buy that. >> with the 30 seconds i have left, is it as simple as you're long the stock market that we teased the js, janet yellen and jay powell, but they're going to get it right, this is not going to be them chasing the inflation curve, chasing bond yields, this is all the god i lox outcome >> yeah. remember we have an income fixed hedge for when things go bad there was no benefit for that, so we really just had to tay a, you know, a stand and say, okay, janet and jay will be the backstop this year, if there is something negative, and i think we learned from how they reacted, they will go big, go early if something does happen, god forbid, that takes us back to a
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darker place, i'm betting on them but for now, i like the js >> thank you, the z, david zerbos check out ahead this mystery chart, with barclays calling this name the az oamonf retail we'll tell you what it is. right after this.
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it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours?
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...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. gloom barclays calling the retailer the amazon of retail with a $19 target. they're cease threadup's business model is like amazon in is the early days. that does it for us here on "the exchanges. i'll join tyler on "power lunch" after this quick break
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welcome to "power lunch. we're glad to be with you, the company updating the ipad, the i mac and apple tv most important to many of us, a device to help us find all your stuff when you misplace it, your backpack, wallet,

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