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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  April 7, 2021 5:00pm-5:59pm EDT

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>> you're forcing me to reveal that you already know, i failed to go with one knee, in my nervousness i went on both knees, begging her, as it were to say yes but i got the yes and that's all that matters and no, i feel very lucky and thank you guys for the shout out. >> we're so excited for you. >> congratulations we love you both that does it for us on "closing bell", "fast money" begins now >> congratulations, i'm melissa lee this is "fast money" today's trader lineup guy adami, tim seymour, nadine and hopefully hroniss grasu will grasso will join us. game on with tech stocks hitting fresh all-time highs we'll break down the record moves. and career terrific -- terrifi
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terry duffy joins us and space etf from arch is there money to be made in the final frontier, we start off with the roaring 20's break out the bathtub records it's boom time for the u.s. economy. j.p. morgan ceo going all in on america in annual 66 page letter to shareholders, we got your back, here's the "fast money" clipnotes version of the letter. he says market valuations are high but justified due to excess saving deficit spending and strong economic growth. banks are playing smaller rose in financial system thanks to the rise of fin tech and china is on the rise america should get ready for it. bottom line, it's boom time in the old usa. so is he right guy, what do you say >> well, it's interesting. i didn't read the 66 pages
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i'm a cliff notes guy, as you can imagine. i'm sure you frowned on people like me in college, mel. tim's saying the same thing i've said literally in the last year that it's all come to fruition is only the horizon, it appears that way, looking at the economic numbers coming out you see the euphoria and optimism in the market and other areas. a lot of what he says makes sense. i think valuations are st stretched. he's not concerned he's ahead in j.p. morgan so i leave it to him. certainly feels the market is feeling the way he's feeling right now. >> how strong do you think the boom is, jamie saying could last two years therefore valuations do not look stretched. nadine, what do you say? >> one air y5u we agree with him
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is what's going to fuel this rebound is energy. we're long energy, have to agree there. he's talking about a goldilox scenario and we're looking around for the three bears we're not of the view it's going to be lasting that long, but instead we're looking at measuring that being a lot of the gdp data it really comes down to math we see acceleration of gdp diamond's going to be right but if you see deceleration ratio, even if levels are high, if it is decelerating it's not going to come to fruition. >> part of the huge boom we've talked about on the show is extraordinary amount of deleveraging happening on part of cooperations and consumer debt is lowest in 40 years and he says it will unleash extraordinary spending across the board, tim, it seems pretty boomish to me. >> very boomish. talked about a new
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marshall-style plan which we know from history was rebuilding western europe and he talked a lot about infrastructure and rebuilding the foundation of this country that infrastructure so the consumer boom, the pent up demand comes together behind $2.3 trillion in the federal reserve he went out of his way to point out both the government and federal reserve were very proactive and made extraordinary steps in the early stages of covid. heard him talk about cooperate taxes may come up but he thinks they will come up moderately and reasonabilitily. hearing 1yjamie diamond that bullish, i read five different interpretations and got five different answers, especially in the political spectrum what people chose to write but but from market context about the economy very bullish from a guy hard to measure. >> yeah i don't know how exstrap
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late it especially when competition lies outside the banking world. fueled by the lesser regulations that they face versus the bank shadow banking, for instance, online flat forms that lends, fin tech companies making trading and investing easier where do you stand on that, it seems like a big threat, at the same time he's saying we may buy stuff. we're poised for acquisition. >> they have to be poised because listen j.p. morgan is within a whisper of an all-time high, as is goldman sachs, traditional banks have to adopt or become extinct and jp morgan will figure that out, some will be left. there's no question
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day in day out taking over when you have a company like square financial you can run the list of companies that are moving into the space there's huge pressures and huge competition without question for the traditional banks, they're not all going away and to jamie diamond's point they will make acquisitions but the earth under their feet has been moving literally for the last 6 to 9 months. >> yeah, steve grasso is joining us by phone, we're talking about competition in financial services how do you think of the winners on the big bank side and the potential targets on the fin tech side of things? >> yeah, so just to echo a little bit of what guy was saying and to just bring in the fact that this is the epicenter of the value trade that's outperformed since september jp morgan up 70% or there about since september.
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a name like square let's go year-to-date that ran roughshod that is fin tech bulls eye as well, that's only up 12% year-to-date against 1yrks jp morgue up 22% year-to-date for me there's a huge gap between value and growth yes, j.p. morgan is going to have a lot of competition in the fin tech world but i think they have extremely deep pockets where they can, as you mentioned, buy whoever they have to buy to stay competitive. >> another big theme in the letter is china. i wonder what is your take, we call you the ambassador on the show, that's your sold nickname since your sperk of specialty is in emerging markets. is he right on that front? >> well, i think he's pointing out the risks and they'll continue not just geopolitically but control issues around the
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internet, around trade, i think we will continue to find we're on the other side of china on issues on global, economic strategic importance and china is on the way to reserve currency and reserve banking center and reserve market. i get that i think the deficit spending dynamic of what he said is really what i worry most about i think about almost euphoric kind of reaction and something that can't last forever, when you light that piece of newspaper on the fire and that's all that burns and you know, guy referenced his favorite carol king who i know is his top five artist, desert island style feeling the earth under his feet, she feels the sky tumbling down. the sense i get it's going to be extraordinary but there's no free lunch for jp morgue it's going to be
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extraordinary, a great run for banks i think will continue. >> in discussing and thinking about this letter, we thought, if jamie diamond is right, what do you do? as an investor, how do you trade this letter? so that's the game if jamie dimon is right, what do you do nadine, what do you do >> two things one long energy. two, short the dollar. china has its own virtual currency and going straight after to destabilize the dollar. >> steve grasso, if jamie dimon is right what do you do? >> i think a lot of people will have money to spend and back to work, you have to look at consumer-facing names, i would go with west rock, containers and packaging. that benefits from e commerce and then you get a little kicker
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and next week we'll have pricing, people are looking for an upside surprise in pricing in container oard. if you look at infrastructure, that's going to be spread out over four years at the very minimum. stimulus is immediate. so i would look for those retail, consumer names or something that would benefit from that e commerce wrk >> all right tim, what's your dimon trade >> if consumer do well banks do well in the next period or two when jamie dimon talks like i want to own jp morgue. the reserv 1yrks p morgue j.p. morgan. -- >> we were just talking yesterday about credit season everything was so great until
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green sell and archegos speaks to how strong it was for business for banks overall. if jamie dimon is right what would you do >> can't believe you say if, if karen were here she'd correct you and say he's never wrong don't we have something to make it a fun game. >> it's not really a game it's just to be more palettable to you. i knew you'd respond to a game not a trade. >> fair. he talked about trades facing head winds another great bank ceo we don't talk about enough steve schwartzman and black stone is trading at all-time high reasonable valuations and if the environment jamie thinks will happen in the next couple years it will be a golden age of private equity and black stone is poised and for me it has been and continue to be bx.
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>> let's talk more on a "fast money" exclusive from the chairman and ceo of cme. terry, great to see you. >> thank you, melissa, appreciate it. >> are you as optimistic as jamie dimon? >> i kind of agree with guy adami. i don't think jamie's ever been wrong, i do agree a lot with jamie, i think he's a terrific guy and dear friends i think he made a lot of strong comments in that letter, i think it was 62 pages, whatever it was. you know, it's really hard to make the prediction of what's going to happen for the next two years. it's kind of hard to predict what's going to happen next week but again, i think when there's money falling out of helicopters from the government like he pointed out with the stimulus and other things it's kind of hard to say he's going to be wrong. i think some of the other conversation where i kind of disagree with jamie and i shouldn't, it's his business, is the shadow banking and fin tech taking over traditional banking
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space. i think when you look at shadow banking and lending of that nature, it's really easy to get into somebody else's business when the markets are going straight up and there's calm waters but what about when it gets rocky and goes the other way, will those people still be there to replace the traditional banks they do in business today. i think fin tech helps to enable that the shadow banking business i don't know if i would be so overly concerned if i was a big bank it's really easy to be a disruptive when things are going well it's really hard to be a replacer when things are going bad. >> really good point in terms of these companies and funds operating the shadow banking world in fin tech not having existed with interest rates at zero when they are not going to be ask i want you to look into your
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crystal ball and tell us about your business, and how you look at the reopening. we seen a tremendous rise of the retail trader during the pandemic how do you look at business on the other side of things 1234 do you think volumes can be su sustained 1234. >> it's hard it's hard to say what the volumes are going to be and sustainability of anything i will say just when you think you got things figured out they change the fed minutes came out today and talked about rates be quiet for a projected period of time we all hear the story but seen a steep yield turn that no one saw coming just when you get complacent is when you get hurt. so for our business the cost of risk management is so cheap and in a world it changes so quickly, if you try to manage your risk after the event was announced or there after it is too late it's gone. i think people are going to
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continue to look at our products as alternatives to mitigate their risk to grow their businesses >> terry, my question to you -- as always thanks for being here -- what does the retail trader want access to? how are you addressing it at cme? >> that's a great question, guy. you know, it's really fascinating what's gone on with the retail trader in the last several months i think the retail trader has figured out couple things, first, then they don't want friction and they want access to the marketplace like everybody else gets it so how do you give it to them. in today's world the retail trader is not go away, they'll continue to grow and companies like cme and others will have to continue to look at ways they have access to the marketplace no different than anyone else with little friction so they can participate in the marketplace people want to drive their own cars, fly their own planes, call
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it what you want but the retail trader is no different they saw a lot what happened with the robinhood scenario where there's no fees and then they found out there's payment over flow and there's been a lot uncovered by the retail trader in the last couple months and i think they'll use that to their benefit to, again, eliminate friction and gain greater access to the marketplace. >> to that point of the retail trader not going away, terry, and coming out with products you're launching bitcoin mini futures. >> yeah. >> it sounds like a product specifically for the retail trader is there any concern that retail traders are jumping head long into trading into products like this which they may not understand. >> i guess i would ask the question back to you, melissa, are the participants who are retail traders up -- jumping head long into
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gambling around the world when you haventities offering first $2,000 free and keep going so the retail traders is much nor savvy and when you see bitcoin at $56,000 our contract is 5 bitcoin per contract. extremely large contract, several hundred thousand dollars for one of our contract so to go to a smaller one is not just catering to the retail businesses but to the institutional clients because of the value of the increase of the cryptocurrency of it self. >> terry, it's by pleasure to speak to you, we appreciate that you do watch. >> i do watch your show, melissa and guy and the rest of the folks there, you guys do a terrific job and i appreciate it very much. very educational thank you. >> see you soon. >> be well. >> cme ceo, terry duffy. tim, what do you think
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>> for cme it's a stock for couple years that under performed a bit but again trading volumes and where we are in the capital market cycle that's the upgrade for the issue may be valuation be look at the ebit margin north of 60% so terry has evolved with a landscape that's been evolving 20 years and i'm sure they'll continue to be in the thick of it >> grasso, got to go to your trading thoughts post-pandemic. >> yeah i think we've totally tapped 23450 a whole -- tapped into a whole new demographic that is engaged in the marketplace. it's really astounding how this demographic is so engaged. i would caution though that my first knee-jerk reaction is to go where tim went with the exchanges to say they'll have bloated volume the second thing is, there's also a lot of people that have been extremely receptive and engaged because of the pandemic
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and they're sitting at home. so i don't know when we come out of the pandemic if they're going to be this engaged but i will tell you i have twin boys that will be 12 in june and they're interested in trading now. i was not interested in trading at 12 years old. guy adami was, he was interested in trading at five, there was a bunch of stuff going on underneath that button wood tree when guy was five years old, but this is something i've never seen before, engagement level in college, high school and elementary school kids and you have to guess through the exchanges because it will explode going forward. >> nice button wood reference. coming up big tech stocks you probably own hitting all-time highs will it last or weigh in later, why option traders are betting on cool summer ahead for crude oil, ahead when "fast
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sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. welcome back to "fast money. twitter topping the tape, the st stock jumping as and bloomberg reporting twitter
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held discussion for $4 billion clubhouse take over but the talks are no longer ongoing. nadine how do you feel about twitter trying to buy clubhouse? >> i think they've done an amazing job leveraging their space and obviously they've built up a platform and are now monetizing it. whether they get clubhouse or not they're making strategic moves that's what you twoontd back with -- you want to back with a platform you want to own. >> 2k3grasso >> only problem i have with twitter they haven't been able to monetize anybody who is on the platform if they can start doing that where they will have a buy, switch, or as you said with clubhouse. something social like that, i think it's a spring buy. but the chart tells me it's in a downward trend the chart is very similar to snapchat i'd rather if it was a would you
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rather, which i'm myself would you rathering, i'd rather snapchat both charts are equally unimpressive but i like snapchat because they figured out how to keep the momentum going, millenials love it and i haven't seen the momentum subside with snapchat >> caltrans even on the phone, steve grasso guy adami, you use spaces, i never thought i'd say that sentence, you may be the only one on this panel that uses spaces. >> crazy right. you make fun of me. >> well, you don't buy anything online and yet you use spaces, that seems to be the irony in everything but it does seem it would be the easy and logical next step to monetize that. >> yeah i'm a walking contradiction, no doubt. kals great word. dan was here he'd say spaces
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twitter's to lose and people on clubhouse are looking at twitter, it's probably a good miss by twitter. i think they can monetize this platform will be huge for twitter without question the stock pulled back. i think jack dorsey has done a remarkable job i would buy. >> shares took off of microsoft, ap apple and facebook jumping to new highs and web bush saying tech stock could see another 30% uptick by year end do you think the ever bullish dan ives is right? >> look, if the mechanics of the mega cap tech stocks are going higher, they're going higher and they're leading us top 40% of nasdaq 100 is 22% of the s&p
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having said that, i think the valuation is there in a time people have been questioning that okay what were the head winds for mega cap tech in the last couple quarters some were regulatory some of it was very interesting and appropriate rotation into value industrial cyclicality we seen why google could continue to rerate and could do the same in facebook apple has been language wishing. amazon is a chart that's done nothing since july and may be in the greatest e commerce psych the of their lifetime. cycle of their lifetime. a lot to be excited for companies with not a big balance sheet. as of march 8 triple q outperform s&p by 3.5 ferpercen. >> according to morgan stanley
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10 to 15% is travel related and as it opens up google should benefit. >> i think your point someone of our key aspects which is you have to pick the right tech. if you look at the q's, tim pointed out, they're trading at an applied volatility discount of 30%, people are complacent, so you might want to own tech but choose the right tech and hedge that when you get to these times when people are a little bit complacent we're bullish on the intermediate term. stock presidentiselection is very important. >> we're just getting started on "fast money. here's what's coming up next >> oh, dear, a popular space etf might not be so out of this world after all. a classic instance of know what you own. we'll dig into that later.
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plus is there easy money to be made in the spac market. the spac king joins us to break down the trade that and more when "fast money" returns. ersonalized investment strategies to help you get back to your future. edward jones. cal: our confident forever plan is possible with a cfp® professional. a cfp® professional can help you build a complete financial plan. visit letsmakeaplan.org to find your cfp® professional. ♪♪
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welcome back to "fast money. tonight's big number 549 that's how many spacs have priced since 2020 and in the last year, 134 have yet to announce targets and are currently trading below the $10 floor. so we're thinking, why don't investors buy up these under water spacs and make easy money because you should be getting ten or is that strategy too good to be true let's ask the ceo of accelerate financial technology he money adjectives -- he
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manages the fund to track mergers. welcome back. >> thanks, happy to be here. >> seems like the easy thing to do, isn't it free money buying sub $10 spac knowing it will be worth 10 >> you're right. some are not just worth $10 they have upside optionality, say they announce a business composition with bo ex and we work who would guess it would rally 20% and now that stock is at $13 and change. there's more upside beyond the 10 floor so if you buy these below $10 it's a gift to investors, we refer to it as spac ashitage, i 23 know this is more of a slow money strategy
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generally you could be waiting a 1y50er or two -- year or two to announce it does require patience and while it is free money it does require a lot of attention and diligence to the process because they consider it a strategy that's simple but not easy it's simple yeah buy at $9.99 and get $10 back and hopefully get you to $12 to $15 per share. however if they announce a deal that's not good and you want to redeem but you miss the redemption date next thing you know it's down to $8 and you lost your shirt. so it does require diligence and skill and attention and patient >> time, value and money is important. you could be on this trade for a long time and you have to know when as a shareholder you vote whether to cash in on 10 or proceed with potentially
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participating to the upside. there's a lot involved in this is there any scenario in which you would not be returned $10 that you would not have the opportunity to be returned $10 >> so as long as you keep up-to-date with respect to the redemption and they have this liquidation process. that capital just owns short-term treasury bills and trust. so in the very small probability scenario in which perhaps the u.s. treasury defaults on its obligations which i think is nil, that capital is basically guaranteed where you get the $10 plus interest back as long as you have the effective strategy and don't miss that redemption date so be diligent about it this is the type of strategy that you want to be diversified because you never know which will pay off it's like a basket of co-options. >> julian, it's tim, thanks for
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joining us i invest in spac, i have couple in a canvas etf and you listed spaks spacs that you think are interesting, i'm curious how you assess a spac pre-deal you listed companies that i know have established track report in private equity so more color how you're making that assessment. >> you really nailed the main point is that sponsor track record, sponsor reputation, you got to know that they have good deal flow in order to get a business accommodation complete because if they don't and end up liquidating then all you get back is your $10 plus accrued interest and that fraction of a warrant that comes as part of a unit is basically worth it's so that is really like the bad-case scenario. you don't want to get stuck in a spac that doesn't do a deal and ends up liquidating so you want
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to pay attention to sponsor quality, sponsor track record. certainly if they had success in the spac space in the past, ie, are now on the second, third or fourth or fifth one, then that really adds to the appeal. the other thing is price i constantly caution don't pay too much for these pre-deal. you ideally want to buy at a discount to protect your down side that's the name of the game, protecting down side and having exposure to the upside on a good deal and that upside optionality on a good deal you could make the case that that's stronger or more reputable sponsors with good deal flow. >> julian, great to see you, thank you. >> thanks gierkss. >> steve, grasso out there on the phone. nyse, you have invested in spacs pre-deal, how do you do it >> i have. and i agree with everything the guest had said and the problem with spacs now
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is that the environment with that switch and the head wind that we've seen would allow these speculative investments, they've been under tremendous weight so the key is, you have to buy the management team. i bought bill foley's spacs. so i started with the uptake which is pay safe now. and wpf. which is right now they're still pre- -- they announced but they haven't flipped symbol yet, that will be some time before the end of the second quarter. i do it on a timeline, obviously you want to buy like every other stock, you want to buy at a discount but unfortunately and fortunately, you are now getting discounts but you have to buy the management team and the growth potential and you have to above all else be patient, melissa. >> steve, thanks for that. coming up, is this trade running out of energy. options market down side we'll dig into
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. welcome back to "fast money. hungry well, piper sandler put out its
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latest list where teens are heading to grab a bite let's get to the details. >> we all the know teens love their food, it's their number one wallet priority at 23% of wallet share for males the top priority for females number two behind clothing and accessories top brands chic-fil-a and starbucks and chipotle chipotle is gaining traction with average-income teens thanks to marketing campaigns and tiktok it's got a merchandise line and more starbucks is the most preferred coffee company but mine share muted from prior highs it's brand equity is relevant among gen z. mcdonald's mine share dipped and could shift as they lean more
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into engagement and has celebrity partnerships with travis scott and bowman. now they offer social experience with affordability factor and will rebound as mobility and spending patterns return in the new normal back to you. >> in the new normal, shall we expect the casual sit-down restaurants will make a come back, or will it always be qsr. >> the casual names have really been rebounding but as far as the teen survey only olive garden cracked the top five in both those categories so they favor the fast food and qsr but overall investors seem optimistic about casual dining, those names have been moving higher and more are dining indoors so we'll have to see. >> thank you let's trade some of the names. guy adami you've been fan of the
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stock for quite some time, chi chipotle. >> i actually got it last night. number one number two, the an lift at piper sandler is in 2,000 price target end of the month. i think you own the stock. it had a bit of a pull back but 2340u threatening new time highs i think cmg is still best in class in the fast food area. >> chic-fil-a not publicly traded but number one amongst teams how should we think about that as it impacted others like mcdonald's. >> across fast food mcdonald's has done a great job finding more panache and appeal for the
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gen z with kiosk dining. it's a great place for my 12-year-old to meet her girlfriends and there's affordability and some element of cool factor it's amazing i think the stimulus dynamic and reopening dynamic of starbucks and luxury that people can afford, i think they're going to starbucks. if you look at the escalation in terms of where the jack ups and impute that on the next quarter i think it will be a big year. >> coming up, sky's the limit, investors piling into newest space and innovation etf what's inside is hardly out of the world. later, crack open a cold one we talk about beer trade on tap as we head to break we're celebrating financial literacy month all month long here's ceo
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welcome back to "fast money" check out archegos space exploration seeing $440 million inflows in first four days of trading on pace to top $1 billion in assets in days. don't think this etf is out of this world just yet. deere, the tractor maker, is among the funds top 15 holdings. is this a classic case of know what you own netflix is in there. lockheed martin is in there. boeing and other manufacturers are in there guy adami what do you think
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1234. >> they're going to need a lot of roto 'tillers on the moon and you got to watch something so netflix. know what you own, absolutely. i'm not going to cast a spirgss on the etf but the stock is amazing in earning whether in space etf or not, deere and company makes a lot of sense. >> yeah. nadine 1234 -- >> when we own etf we want a specific exposure. i am not looking for cross asset potential correlation. in kathy's etf they also own 3d printing etf in it that makes me nervous. she's a smart lady and i wish her well but when we use etf's it is to gain specific exposure
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so i prefer things more clean. >> tim, the case can be made that deere has technology and is innovative but you could make that case for almost every case in the s&p 500 because everyone uses technology and sensors, you could make a lot of cases that a lot of companies are innovative. >> yeah i think part of this is a dirth of pure play ideas to bet on space defense names are going to be involved obviously you talk aerospace we could just go with that etf so i think, yes, there's a lot of unknown congrats to kathy wood who minted yet another great product. we seen this with blockchain and other thematics. again, i run an etf. it's a pure play i think that's what investors want know what you own. totally agree. >> crude closing in the green but options trader believe could lose power that's next. plus it's always 5:00 here on
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welcome back here's a sneak peek with the cramer cam, check it at the top of the hour. oil finishing green and despite the trading down 2% this week and options traders are gearing up for what could be a cruel summer for the space, tony what did you see? >> today on xle, the etf that tracks the energy shares we saw some sizable, unusual activity xle trades actively on average about 210,000 contracts a day but today was fairly quiet, only half of that traded, but we did see one large trade a trader laid out quarter million in premium to buy 1,347 contracts of the september $44 puts paying about $2.02 for those puts
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keep in mind this -- >> all right, we're having problems with tony's audio, bottom line, oil, xle, could have a rough couple months steve grasso how do you feel on this trade which went from way underloved to very loved. >> yeah, this is one especially as major secular head winds, obviously we're going to a greener world for alternate energy but the biden administration was supposed tot toly -- to be the death nail for fossil years and that hasn't happened xle having its best in five years. you have to say with fossil fuels it's most nonconsensus trade and worked tremendously. >> our thanks to tony. for more options action tune in
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on friday, at 5:30 coming up beer stocks have people bubbling with trades "fast money" back in two risk, and all the ways schwab can help me invest. this is andy reminding me how i can keep my investing costs low and that there's no fee to work with him. here's me learning about schwab's satisfaction guarantee. accountability, i like it. so, yeah. andy and i made a good plan. find your own andy at schwab. a modern approach to wealth management. find your own andy at schwab. labradoodles, cronuts, skorts. (it's a skirt... and shorts) the world is going hybrid. so, why not your cloud? a hybrid cloud with ibm helps bring all your clouds together. that means you can access all your data, modernize without rebuilding, and help keep things both open and secure. that's why businesses from retail to banking are going hybrid with the technology
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welcome back to "fast money. crack open a cold one because it
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is national beer day anheuser busch and others all having very different years which one of these stocks would you party with. >> i love constellation. although i prefer a moulson. sorry coors light or miller lite that's how i roll. in terms of stocks ste showing volume is rolling even in contracting times. >> guy >> with stz you got the kicker cannabis for sure. i'm not necessarily a beer person as you imagine but i will go yrks ingling the oldest family-owned brewery in the country i did a shootout back in the day. >> that's a classic, you need to go in the way-back machine to see that footage that's for sure.
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-- absurd amount of money we're getting back there capri holding. >> 100 . >> back to starbucks, think the stock is $125, $130, love it, been good friend in good types and bad, stay there. >> nadine terman. >> going back to jamie dimon we're seeing inflation, even if it is moderate inflation got to go long energy i pick exxon there's a-symmetry to the name, i've pitched others in the past but exxon look

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