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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  April 5, 2021 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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>> ten more seconds here, mike yields coming back in, does the market believe infrastructure won't happen at these levels or the tax increases will be a drag >> i think all of it is too soon to price in. >> that's something to watch, definitely let's got to the half. >> welcome to h"halftime report" i'm scott wapner joining me bri-- let's go to the wall and check the markets the dow hitting a report pete, our state of play is looking good
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economic data continues to rip all the way over on the right, rates, you know, staying pullet, too. >> and people are very, very comfortable, there's absolutely no doubt about that. the idea that people have been looking at this market, and having some angst at times because of the movements we're getting in specific areas, and i just heard the guys talking about that, some of the names out there that were running to the up side. right now we're seeing the quality namesrunning to the up side it's also financials, materials, a lot of different areas of the market that are participating. you have a vix, like you say of around 17, 18? that's incredible right now. all things curbed, just a few weeks ago we were at the mid 20s, and yes now here we are in the teens. it seems like a comfortable spot for people i would caution a bit, though.
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don't get too comfortable. everything i am seeing right now is extremely short term. what that means to me, scott, i'm not talking about things that are expiring in april i'm talking about options that people are piebuying in droves today, in different categories, but they are all expiring on friday there isn't a long-term bullishness, at least in the derivatives markets. >> you see the new highs today, joe, and the list? we're talking facebook and alphabet, microsoft, so big tech hitting new highs, you have the home builders hitting new highs. kansas city southern, union pacific, j.b. hunt, whirlpool, that's about as brought as you can get. >> the formation of the market is about as perfect and sunny as an investor could ever want. keep in mind, oil is actually
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falling. it's below $60, to your point before, unemployment at 6.4%, ims services with the highest number since 1997, and bond yields are falling the economic optimism is reflected in the good news in the economy. what we are now witnessing, as we enter a new quarter, is, to your point the broadening out. the broadening out is now coming from the establishment growth names. so you have your tesla up 12% in the last five days you've got your alphabet and your microsoft up nearly 8%. nvidia up 7%, lamb research up 7% so technology is participating once again, and this formation is a really strong one heading into earnings. stay invested and enjoy it. >> tell you what, joe, it's the tech names, some of the other names. if you look at the etfs, multiyear highs today, brynn.
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home construction, i gave you some individual names there t. the home crux scherr, itb etf is higher since '96 >> first of all, as it comes to home building, there's more real estate agents than homes for sales. materials are doing incredible what joe just said is so important, sit back and enjoy it you have a goldilocks market i think investors have to remember, where do we know we'll gets consistent earns. lamb research, microsoft, apple, google, facebook, they'll have
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great consistent earnings all year now, maybe the year-over-year comps, people can poke holes in, but that being said, 94% of stocks in the s&p 500 are over their 200 moving day average you have to go back years and years to see that. i think that you have to look and say the market is not thinking this infrastructure bill is going to get passed, because if it does, i think the taxes that have to pay for it, you have to rerate a lot of earnings, it will be a direct impact i think manage your expectations that the back half of the year could look very different that now. >> maybe that's what the market is saying, okay, we'll get some infrastructure, but we're not getting $2 trillion. at least that's the bet the market is trying to put toward the center of the table. whether that's right or wrong, we will find out
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degas, despite all of this, you have outflows from tech for the second week in a row, largest since september of last year, nearly $1 billion coming out of tech is there still a lack of belief that that's the place to be? >> well, it should not be a lack of belief, as brynn was talking about you're looking for more quality in the tech names. all these companies have a valuation tilt i would just add to the whole economy, the economy is actually improving and at a better place today than at the beginning of the year you have to look, the vaccine is ahead of schedule. that means we'll reopen earlier. we also have the fiscal policy i believe that infrastructure bill, a portion of it, not all $2 trillion, but a portion will get passed also during 2020 we had
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companies reducing their operating experience we're going to see a lot of earnings surprises, and that will lead to what we see as the s&p 500 being probably around 4300, if not higher. >> i tell you what, joe, it's not just the big-tech names doing well today over the past week, some of the areas that have been obliterated, or at least hit pretty hard -- maybe obliterated is too harsh of a word the fourth straight positive week there for semis is it too early to ask, is tech back >> i think tech has always been back i think what happened to
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technology is in the middle of february, we began to see a dramatic rotation, the -- you cited outflows to degas previously in the conversation, those are specifically towards end-of-quarter momentum funds, so here's what i would say as it relates to some of the names you mentioned. a lot of those names, scott, they're some of the emerges growth technology stoirps. i'm still suspicious for the long term under to place your hol holdings i'm not going to step into a data dog or some of the high flyers like a peloton here i'm going to lean toward the nvinvindi nvidia, and more established
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names. >> brinn, you ball more microsoft. >> microsoft is my biggest single-security position just last week it was announced i think they'll be making 120,000 headsets for the army, which is about a $20 billion contract they're executing on the cloud, they're executing on xbox. if he do the discord acquisition, that's 100 million people that microsoft has access to i just think they're executing all around they're going to do 40 to 42 billion the next quarter linkedin still has wonderful ad spends there i think it's a must-own name >> you bought more apple calls, facebook calls, even as you cited it's mostly short-term paper.
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>> absolutely, scott as a matter of fact, the bullish sentiment is across just about everything we saw today in terms of the unusual, and it's back. we have a bit of a pause last week it's a shortened week. so that was part of it i think the reality is we are seeing a market that is really skies to up up side. we talked about the specific names in technology, how these paused for a while when you had the great run with these names, they had that healthy pause. now it looks like they're ready to rear up again and start moving to the up side. the quality names are the quality names. they have that pause, biotech had a pause, we had semiconductors having a pause, so we're seeing more of that move to the up side. it's been the last four or five
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days has been absolutely impressive gains of 3%, 4%, 5%, it's just been something where it looked like everybody wants to get back into a variety of different areas, specifically when we're looking at nasdaq, we're talking about technology, talking about semiconductors and biotech biotect was getting beaten down, and then we saw a bit of strength coming back so i think the fact that we are seeing some of these outflows, i find that interesting. everything that we're seeing are inflows, and some of that might be stock replacement i can't tell for you sure. >> degas, where is the negative? you get earnings coming up in a week or so obviously they better be good. expectations are they're going to be good the economic data continues to blow the doors off
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ism services backs up a powerful nu number. >> we're actually reallocating that to more of an infrastructure and small-cap focus. so basically you want to position your portfolio and take advantage of this up market. >> maul caps and energy is where tom lee is talking about a face ripper to continue into april, let by the small caps. energy, brynn, you bought the xle also. >> i already have. >> announcer: exposure chevron and exxon are close to
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50%, so i felt like i was a little under weight, but i think you have to understand where all of this green energy and all of this switch to, you know, ev, it's a very dirty business to go to the electrical market you're going to need a ton of fossil fuels there's been no cap ex, so i think after ten terrible years in the energy space, you can't get a good year. do i think it's a great five, ten-year investment? no, but i think you need exposure to these companies. it's going to take fossil fuels to get us to an ev market. >> what do you think of this tom lee note i told you where some of the money was coming out of. you buy that
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>> i do think that the markets will be well supported through the remainer of the month. the debt has always been a concern. >> the interest in addition to that, the traden environment continues to be an excellent one. two holdings that i have, i'm very confident they will be reporting capital market trading activity that will -- thought to be one of the best quarters. >> i totally get the fact there's a lot of optimism in the market the next logical question is, it's a good seg ways, whether the market is finding a sweet spot, or is this as good as it gets, right?
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both are good, it's just one has the potential of being more powerful and lasting longer. >> and nothing says things can't stay good for a while. it's been dangerous to overlook the positives in front of us i don't think -- the market is not telling you that there are stress buildups that we have to be concerned about the markets is not net exhibiting any evidence that well culminated. however, up to be asking the questions. there's economy outlooks being raced. is that, you know, what gets priced in, is the big question the fed has been resolute we will not push back against the good news for a long, long time. does the market try to predict
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that sweet spot? that's the question. when the ism has exceeded 60, the forward returns are not typically all that good. usually stocks versus ants pailepail -- anticipated that time. maybe that's going to be a case, but that hasn't caused much when we bumped up against that line it's an orderly, well supported bull market. i think the question is, has everybody basically become allocated to the upbeat case i think you're increasingly moving in that direction. >> i don't know. i'm trying to think, historically how many times can you say we are at the beginning of a powerful new economic cycle? which i feel like we are, and yet that's as good as it gets.
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>> now, you can have things go according to this positive story on main street not necessarily have is it priced in dollar for dollar i'm not saying that's going to be the case, but i think we're in a strange, compressed economic cycle whether it was just an idiosyncratic crash last year, we've gone from early cycle to mid cycle already and we're less than a year into this recovery so i think you have to be careful about deciding where we are. you've got in some strange combination, and financial market valuations, whereas you had early cycle, fed policy and economic forces. so somewhere in there, maybe you're going to get some storminess, but it's not showing up right now. >> the other sort of unknown
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here, too, is that if retail investor is feeling flush and is feeling this optimism about what lying ahead you have that as a potential engine. >> whatever you want to look at, b of a wealth manage, pretty much a record high the investor group 70% stocks, so yes, they continue to support this market, but it's not at if they'rium it's continue to go up if you owned any. >> that's for darn sure. stay with me, mike i want you to hear what the gang has to say sweet spot for stocks
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>> i would say it's the sweet spot. >> have we had a great run so far? since november, take a look at obviously energy, financials, industrials, materials, all having a great return. but it's -- i do think that right now we still have plenty of runway, so i'm going to say we're in the sweet spot. at we rotate into different areas, i think that would make sense to me. i still think there's ways for the materials. it's not just that we're focusing on one, but i think
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that overall, we have a pretty broad market that's trading right now very well. the consumer does have some money in their pockets they are going out and spending at various areas so i think it's a good combination for all. i would say we are in the sweet spot right now >> this would suggest, mike, for pete to be right that you, you know, maybe you haven't reached cruising altitude yesterday, and you're not going to reach it for some sometime >> i don't think i would argue with that. i think it's partially because each of the past three months we've had something blow up or at least come as a big surprise that caused people to back off, whether it was the short squeeze/gamestop thing that blew up we've had something that caused a 4% to 5% shakeout that caused
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people to go back on their heels. you go a white, all you do is melt up, melt up, then you get to that moment, where we're all in the other positive is valuations in the s&p have not gone up, because forecasts have kept pace the s&p was up -- s&p first quarter forecasts with yere up the runway is perhaps longer than some people suggest degas, the sweet spot? >> definitely the sweet spot we've had that pullback in the.
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>> this is definitely the sweet spot we're actually at a better play economically than at the beginning of the year. growth is our focus. >> if you agree, joe, how come no new moves from you? as someone who is reasonably active in the market, is this a sit back and see where we go >> i think last wednesday i was pretty clear what my expectations were. this is never as good as it gets we are in clearly the sweet spot would i be surprised to see a super pause? no, i wouldn't understand something, scott. i look at positioning all the time we are seeing significant flows into -- into assets that are domiciled in the united states you know why
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we are so far ahead of the rest of the world in terms of the distribution of the vaccine. the rest of the world is struggling right now summer puause yes, we can see that. >> we could get hit by a bus walking across the street. is it likely or not? why could we have a summer pause? for what reason? >> if the rest of the world begins to recover and covid cases decline there then you'll see some then you'll return. you'll find opportunity in europe, so i think you'll get that geographic dispersion last point i'll make janet yellen reintroduced
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globalization. that means ultimately relaxing the tariffs. i will tell you, in the next six months, the market will have to price in relaxing the existing tariffs. >> the idea of a sweet spot get more, i guess, gusto behind it if it remains the case, where europe is just so far behind the u.s. those dollars will continue to flow here. >> that's absolutely true. it's not necessarily a sign we're early in the trend let's put it that way. >> thank you, mike let's go through a couple
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moves before we take our first break. roku calls what is that about, brynn? >> that's not working out so well today i bought roku calls. >> i wouldn't follow me on the trade. it looks to be wrong in the short term that being said, whether netflix or at&t, whether viacom, all fights to streaming, they have one bottleneck to go through, and that's roku. right now it hasn't been a good exposure we'll see how that trade goes over the next few months. tell me about the jpmorgan jepy >> they buy about 80 underlying
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names. they sell calls against them, trade about 7% to 10% via the calls, and then some capital precious it's just a great long-term hold >> degas, tell me about avav >> just recently went to mars as the first drone to demonstrate the viability of area road -- to do investigation we also like it because of the profitability. it's going to grow as we get in -- it's going to benefit. >> a nice move for that. coming up, and both are trading higher today why? the investment committee weighs
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ylan mui has a news alert on senate democrats' proposed tax
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plan hi, ylan. >> they're out with a new framework for overhauling how companies -- they're calling for a dramatic increase in the international rate senate democrats said it's an open question whether the international rate should be the same as what they're discussing for the domestic rate. either way, this does move our tax system closer to the global minimum tax that secretary yellen talked about this morning. the plan is backedably the chairman of the finance and banks committees the framework would also get rid of the tax exemption for overseas and force them to calculate their taxes on a country-by-country basis instead of blending profits. moody estimates that it could raid $670 billion over the next decade, but scott, president
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biden did talk to reporters as he returned from camp david today, and he did not think that higher corporate taxes will hurt the economy. >> i did see a headline relating to senator martialing, do you know anything about that >> yeah. what he said is he would be supportive so this is part of those negotiations that will have to happened, and the administration will have to convention senate democrats to go along with that higher number, or risk having this infrastructure package ar to the deficit they were clear about saying they would have to pay for this, and take the corporate rate down to -- that would mean higher
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debt. >> a big voice, though, senator marti man manchin weighing in. here's your cnbc news update the head of the cdc says the current rise in new covid cases is being driven by higher infection rates among young colts. dr. w-- adults. the emergency doctor testifies that he believes george floyd died of suv station. he also had been told that no police or bystanders had tried to resuscitation floyd vladimir putin has signed a law that potentially allows him to hold power until do 26. in israel, protests for and
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against prime minister netanyahu. he slammed prosecutors saying, quote, thus what a coup attempt looks like scott, back over to you. let me get you up to date on the market we are at the highs of the today, new records for the s&p 500 and the dow jones industrial average on the back of that blowout jobs report. more encouraging economic today from the ism, services report, too. ism services highest on record that's just adding to the economic optimism. we take a look at shares of general motors and ford, they are up big this year overweight, and that's our call of the day we have ownership from degas and joe. degas, a lot of up side left here, you think? >> definitely. we look it at these levels
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we're seeing about a 15% to 20% gain around here we see this getting to $70, because of the fab the of valuations it's about 30%, so still a lot of up side here. the profitability, as measured by cash flow to return on invested capital is around 20% the forward expectations, they're actually investing about $27 billion in next-gen ev they also shall a partnership with autonomous vehicle to work with microsoft, using the azure platform >> joe, better late than never for you, right >> yes certainly i'm one of the last to get in, but i'm okay with that i believe in buying high and selling higher, and the story is
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as degas rightly describes it. it's a positive one, and a secular story. there's clear policy in this country for evs. you're talking about a company that's really done a good job in terms of guiding what their balance sheet is going to look like degas talked about the free cash flow, what the expectations are there, what the cap ex is going to be, but they her guided forward what their corporate tax rate is going to look like at 24% under the new corporate tax structure. i think this company is getting ahead of the balance sheet manage and introduction into evs, 30 vehicles by 2025, fully ev by 2035 i don't know, certainly it seems to me that they are positioned to take some market share from tesla, which is i know is very
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complicated and controversial to say. >> i would hope so that the stock would double this year it's up 230% over one year, and it's doubled year to date. i'm just wondering, thank you very much for this call but tell me something i don't know, right? let's take a quick break april is financial literacy month. we are committed to sharing mention from business leaders. here's acorns' ceo noah kerner >> in money, as in everything, knowing is power, and remembering at the right moment so you make the right decisions. we they'd to remember the power of sticking with it during difficult times. you need to remember that every downturn in history has turned in an upturn, and if you can
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bob pisani here, welcome to the etf edge portion of the "halftime report." jamie weiss is the founder of b-u-z-z, buzz. he used artificial intelligence to pick stocks jamie, we had you on a month ago when buzz lost with dave portenoy as your manager it's weighed toward the old-school tech names, but you have a smattering of square, tesla, whatever inv-- what are investors saying >> certainly there's technology and growth-oriented names, but
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they're not necessarily the drivers of performance, and what's unique is its dynamic -- and understand whether it's growth or value, so far this year buzz is up about 13%. when we look at the names driving performance, it's a lot of those older names, names like ford, american airlines, that are in the top performers. we just rebalanced the index we do see that tilt continues where we have names like costco, target, objection denial petroleum, even united airlines. >> aieq continuing to have very -- your top picks here.
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what is in your model is continuing to recommend a heavily weighted model. >> this has really benefited the last 12 months aiq is up over 80%. tune in at 1:00 p.m. eastern time etf edge, we'll go deeper into using artificial intelligence. we'll be joined by todd rosinbluth he
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etf edge at 1:00 p.m. eastern time stay with us pete's unusual activities are coming up next on the half ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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we've been saying all hour long we are at new high territory. we pushing 4100 or thereabouts on the s&p >> pete, unusual activity? >> absolutely. they're expecting in in jetblue as well. there's a pretty aggressive buyer of 5500 of the april, the regular expiration april calls. obviously with, you know, the talk about vaccines and -- they
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are certainly one of those that sits in that spot. ults beauty is one of the other ones we have a buyer of about april 9th, 325 calls the stock is already starting to move a bit since they started buying those calls last i like it was about three above higher don't forget, second half of the year, scott, ulta and target got their partnership as well. so just continues to play out of all the partnerships for target. i think this works well for ulta as well. next send us your questions by video we'll put th on emthe air. we're bulack in two minutes endl. in other words, we want a hybrid. and so do retailers.
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and showing you care... because now, each time you order online or tap in-store with your mastercard at restaurants and grocery stores, mastercard will donate to stand up to cancer, one precious cent at a time, up to 5 million dollars. together, we can start something priceless. joe mentioned this earlier in our show today. take a look at crude oil it's down nearly 6%. it's below $60 a barrel right now. something to keep an eye on as we follow a big market day in terms of the dow and the s&p 500. both hitting new record highs. the investment committee answering your questions now brynn, transition spac can i please got your thoughts on that? it's set to merge with stem. what do you recommend for the long term in. >> i have a small position in
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this stock it will issue ipo in the second quarter under the ticker stem. it will be a pure play in the emer energy space i own it the stock could go lower in the short term i would wait to establish gnaw position once the ipo is behind them it could be a huge winner over the next few years it's real company. >> degus, leleslie, what's up wh merck? >> leslie, we sold merck last month because of two head winds. they even under performing because of expiration that impacts drugs like novaring the pipeline had some set backs. trials of hiv and diabetes drugs. it's had a lot of setbacks and head winds against the stock now. >> thank you for that. joe, lenanar. i mentioned some of the home
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builders best to hold it or take profits? >> you hold it there are no homes out there now you've got partnership ons the rental market for lennar besides that, private equity is entering the home construction market you might just be selling your house not to an individual but to a pension fund or private equity stay with the home builders. >> you say the quality momentum index. is that better >> yes, sir. >> just making sure. pete what do you think about expedia. >> this is not one of names that come up. we talk about the cruise ship, airlines, a lot of different things expedia will benefit immensely
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it's room to the upside. i think they test those highs. it's still well off the highs. i like this name a lot i'm not in it but i do like it >> it's a big one year to date up 32% you saw it there on the screen meick break. co back. we'll do final trade, next we see breakthrough medicines getting to patients in record time. at emerson, our automation software is empowering pharmaceutical companies to accelerate their production of critical vaccinations for the world. emerson. consider it solved.
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the lexus es, now available with all-wheel drive. this rain is bananas. lease the 2021 es 250 all-wheel drive for $339 a month for 39 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. trades i want to start by talking about a call at citi on medtronic. $133 is the price target that happened to be your final trade, right >> yeah. i've owned the stock for a long
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time i think they do everything right and navigated through the pandemic well. when you look at elective procedures which had pause for a while, that will come back i al look at the second half of the year in terms of the product pipeline that will be released as well. i think there's a lot of different catalysts that make this really smart trade. i think there's plenty of room to the upside. i think 133 is too low >> joe, this stock is the third largest holding in something you just bought. the u.s. medical shares etf. better known as the ihi. >> correct i'll give an assist to heidi on the conversation talking about medtronic and pete's ownership here it took me to the etf which i've owned in the past. it owns abbott labs. >> you taking stock advice from our senior producer now? that's where we've gone. >> probably better than me
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>> degus, final trade. >> hanesbrands doing outstanding based off of online sales >> brynn >> lots of upside as we get vaccinated dow up 400 points. the exchange starts now. scott, thank you for that. we're going to talk a lot about the travel turn around this hour on the exchange. one company would benefit whether people take ship, plane, tr trains, automobiles. the ceo of bookings holdings will join us round three of checks hit american's bank accounts we'll look at where they will likely spend the money wall street falling in love with roblox

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