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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 31, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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>> it will inform us a little bit at least. >> we should point out all sectors sectors did and lower at the bottom staples down 2% and qualcomm trading down after hours as well. finally a big thanks to david zervos for sticking to his promise and raising $250,000 for charity. >> and getting a haircut on cnbc, i think it is a first, an exclusive for "closing bell." >> that does it for "closing bell" today. >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square this the "fast money" i'm melissa lee, your traders on the desk are pete najarian, tim seymour and guy adami. stock tumibling as the fed raising rates for the first time in -- cuts race, excuse me we will break down the four words that set off the powell plunge, plus instant market reaction from jp morgan's marco kalonivic. steve liesman is live in washington for us with the fed fall-out a big day. >> a big day, melissa.
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we get not only tweets about what the fed is going to do but instant tweets from the president about what they just did. the president tweeting about the decision by the federal reserve and j. powell saying, quote, what the market wanted to hear from j. powell and federal reserve was this was the beginning of an aggressive rate cutting ti cut cycle that would keep pace at usual powell let us down. no inflation we are winning anyway but i'm certainly not getting much help from the federal reserve that's the president of the united states. the federal reserve cutting rates for the first time since 2008 today, bringing the rate it controls for overnight lending among banks down by 1/4 percentage point, the new range between 2% and 2.25% in a press conference powell appeared to dial back market expectations for future rate cuts >> the committee is really thinking of this as a way of adjusting policy to a somewhat
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more accommodative stance to furg further the three ontoives i mention, to ensure against inside risks shall to provide support to the economy that those factors are -- were -- where factors are pushing down on economic growth, and then to support inflation. so we do think it will serve all of those goals, but, again, we are thinking of it as ee sen heal in the nature of a mid cycle adjustment to policy. >> there youth stocks sold off immediately when they heard the term mid cycle. they began to question whether the fed would deliver the two additional cuts priced in for this year. powell later clarified he said, hey, he didn't mean to imply the fed was done after cutting rates. it is important to remember the fed provided further easing, ending the reduction of balance sheet two months early they explained it comes amid a u.s. economy still growing, but with growing concerns about overseas developments and muted. two bank presidents said they
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wanted to hold rates unchanged i asked, how can you know what comes next for the fed he said there's not a lot of experience of central banks in responding to global trade wars. he said, quote, the fed is learning by doing. melissa. >> do you think he put his foot in his mouth when he said mid cycle policy adjustment or did he actually mean that the cycle is actually intact, the cycle, the move towards normalizing rates? >> so i feel like he didn't stick the landing, melissa that's the best way i can put it. >> to say the least. >> and i think he went in with a very high degree of difficulty compare it to a gymnastics routine and it is probably not far from one, at least a verbal gymnastic goes routine he let the market go in with the expectation of three rate cuts and the fed did nothing to tamp it down. then he goes in and he says, look, here is what we did, we cut, and he said, here is why we did this cut and it was kind of okay but the landing is the part about, hey, here is what we're
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going to do next and here is how you can know what we're going to do next. i don't feel like he was completely prepared for that now, you can go in in one of two ways you can go in and say, hey, what i'm going to do is i'm going to be comfortable with where the market is priced and i'm not going to push against it, or, two, i'm uncomfortable and going to push against it he didn't really do either very well i think it is like if you see that powell plunge, that chart you had, you fell off and then you came back and the market didn't know quite what to do with it. i still have my futures trading similar to where they were before i need to update them. they're kind of in flux now i think when the contract turns over, and i'm getting some different readings right now but i think the cut, at least for september, is still baked in but i think there are questions now about why the fed would do the next cut what's the metric to watch >> and i guess i'll ask you this in another way mid cycle implies we are still in the same cycle we were in
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prior to this rate cut. >> right, right. >> the first rate cut in a decade, more than a decade. >> right. >> do you think that's what he meant? >> yes, i do. >> okay. >> i think that's what this is and that's what it always was going to be. compared it to '95, compare it to '98 it is not 2001 and it is not 2018 i think that's what he meant to imply. whether it is one, two or three, but it is not five, six, seven, eight and it is not down to zero. >> steve, thank you. steve liesman in washington for us how do we trade this market? what did we make of jerome powell's comments? guy. >> it was an impossible situation and the president, of course, coming out -- you knew this tweet was coming at some point, whether it was during our show or some point late in the evening you knew it was coming the fact that president said, i am certainly not getting much help from the federal reserve. what does that mean? it is not the fed's job to help the united states, it is to do what is right for our economy.
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powell is in a no-win situation. the president is very tactful and has done it for the last two years. the fed is set up to be the fall guys and gals and if the market goes lower here is your villain, folks. i think they were in a no-win situation. he did what he needed to do. thousand do you trade it i don't know if you look and we can talk about it, but the last couple of big names, amazon reported at the all-time highs, sold off facebook, the same thing we will see what happens with apple but it seems to be setting up for the same thing with facebook and amazon. i don't know maybe the market has finally gotten too far ahead of itself so maybe we're in for the 5% pull back tony has been talking about. >> are things different from what we thought powell would say? i mean 25 basis points, ending the balance sheet run-off earlier by two months, and then sort of -- you know what's next. >> we're going to grade the fed president later on in the show that will be a lot of fun. as guy is critical of the president's statements, i am as well i have to say though, i think
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he's right i think the market was expecting a much more aggressive fed and the market is only going on what the fed had guided them to i think we got to a place where the fed a's pivot for most of 21 is we're no longer in that immediate. three or mowre cuts in 2019 is something firmly on the fed's shoulders. the dow is no longer under control of the fed, and maybe it is not supposed to be once again, but central bank differentials are clearly a catalyst and a driver for dollar and dollar movement. if you look at emerging markets which traded through the 200 today, who are places and asset classes at risk for a higher dollar the impact will be emerging months, it will be commodities and anything dollar sensitive. >> we were showing yields and the dollar these are asset classes that moved in an unexpected way considering what happened today.
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>> opposite what you would expect i will make a point. what powell has done in the pivot over the last seven months or so doing what it smacks to keep the inflation or the economy we have had now recovering for ten years in place. juxtapose it to seven years ago where drahgi coined the phrase, i will do whatever it takes to save the euro, the euro banking zone, whatever look at this we talk about seven years on when drahgi said he would do whatever it takes, the euro box indexes the exact same place it was in july of 2012. >> really? >> think about this. we are doing it in a recovery, starting a rate cycle -- >> it is not a cycle, and that was a disappointment. >> but i understand, but who knows? that's the point about why we had so much volatility no one knows for him to say, powell, it is not a '01 or '08, who the heck knows. i think it is a total failure.
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got pushed around about the markets in 2004 and 2018. >> and do you think he was pushed around by the president >> sure. >> he was going on script and then he went back to script. >> when he went back to script he had a physical piece of paper he was reading off of. >> yes. >> and he was better off for that. >> right, right. so it is interesting to watch what occurred today because we watch this market all of a sudden tumble -- we are down over 400 and some odd points on the lower end. came all the way back and now all of a sudden we are down 300 points the interesting thing in terms of the derivative markets, but a week ago we had vix called bought, 200,000 august 20 calls were bought with the vix trading around 12.5. the derivatives marketing is telling us they've been in front of what is going on and some of the reactions. i think, mel, it is interesting to see how strong and impressive was that somebody out there had
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figured out that we're going to see a pretty nice spike in volatility, 30-plus percent in a week and that's about how long it was 1250, up towards 16, a little above today. that's something that's interesting to me because the derivative markets have been absolutely dead on for the month of july. unbelievable. >> given the action you have seen in the past couple of weeks, how are you feeling today? are you feeling more bullish than 24 hours ago or bearish >> i wouldn't say more bullish, but i would say this the one thing we have seen time and time again, it has been very short term, and i have said it for the entirely year of 2019, everything we are seeing, a week out, two weeks out, maybe a month out. we are starting to see if people feel out the markets and go further out, mel what it tells me is people are starting to get a little confidence about the markets 300 points today, let's be honest, from where we just ran up to in july -- >> record highs. >> yes. >> exactly right. >> because of that, this is a little bit of a blip right now. >> right. >> we will have to see how it digests through the market. >> let's bring in the man who
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moves markets, global head of strategy at jp morgan. it is great to have you back here at the market site. what did you make of everything that went on today. >> we got a 25 bits cut and end of qt. i think net-net it is a positive we just had a strong earning season, so, you know, i think market a little bit overreacted. obviously we had a power press conference before 2:30 market was doing pretty fine, so market was fine actually with decision, with the statement. so i think -- i think market overreacted and obviously we have had this bit of unfortunate communication. so i do think market adjusted maybe and recover. so question does it take immediately one day or few days, we'll see. but i would say, like, look mid cycle, this definition of mid cycle, we tend to believe also we are in mid cycle. so would you rather take a mid
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cycle and 25 bits cut or say end of cycle and 50 bits cut i would rather take mid cycle and cut and decent earnings, retail activity, you know, jobs. so i would rather take that than sort of economy falling off the cliff and then aggressive hiking, you know, from equity side. >> with the statement and the news conference, this lays the foundation for the market to do what >> so i think market will consolidate a little bit, but we do think market will go higher, you know and our price target is 3,200 for the 12-month out central banks globally are cutting. economic activity, we have a promise manufacturing obviously but the other side, services, actually doing quite fine. so we do think that sort of we will go to the soft batch, market will recover and with lower rates and more monetaries in global it can grow into higher multiples we are optimistic. >> the feds lead but sort of
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bury in it is effective. u.s./china talks seem to have broken down, whatever you want to use but not going to talk until september. it seems to be strung out. >> certainly it is hurting global trade, manufacturing and cyclicals. we are seeing if you look at the sort of market, market reached all-time highs recently but it is very bifurcated you know, there are two markets. there is sort of defensive, high-quality growth stocks on one side and other side you have a sort of higher beta stock, valley stocks and cyclicals. so this value segment really is almost pricing as if we are heading into recession for sure and this other defensive segment and growth segment is pricing -- is better. so we do think basically that's the reason, that's a consequence of a trade war. and we think that it is very stretch, you know, it is almost like a rubber, the spread between volatility is between extreme point.
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we think with the more accommodative central banks, hopefully some progress on a trade, you know. of course, that's the biggest risk, still the bigger overhang, but we think actually conversions can happen we saw it little bit with the semi conductors and some other segments obviously today is a bit of a setback but we think the process will continue and maybe stuff that is expensive will not go as much up. there are segments of the market almost priced for recession so we think it can recover. >> with this bifurcation of the market, marko, i wonder if you are concerned at all about positioning and the notion of the crowded trades and whether or not it could exacerbate what could come eventually? >> so we think there are definitely crowded trades, you know, like both on the long side and the short side specifically on the long side we think these bond proxies, you know, the very high quality, low volatility stocks, we think they're very, very crowded on the other side they're shorting value we think value is very crowded short and it doesn't need much
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to converge. if you remember yesterday and day before yesterday, we saw big move in energy look for instance oil and gas names. gas was sort of flattish yesterday. some of these names went up 15%, 20%. you had the short squeeze. some are shorted between some% and 20% of their capitalization. obviously a trade for high quality in growth names, so we think that can snap back. >> okay. marko, great to see you. marko kolonick, jp morgan. what do you believe that >> it is not a bad thing according to marko if you think about the market, there's a lot of positioning in the market that relished today's move and want more of it that's one of the reasons why i'm not sure we get a lot more of this. i think when the dust settles central banks are still unbelievably accommodative we all just said, 3% pull back, who cares? we are up 20% this year. >> how are you sure we don't get a lot more of it, if we do a rate cut, first in ten years,
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and the dollar rallies to a ten-year high and we know we need a lower dollar to keep things going. >> i'm not certain we do. >> how is everyone certain it is one and done at 25 bits? i believe that's the question we have to ponder for a while because to me if they change course and they start to raise at some point because the data gets better, is that good for risk assets? >> all right well, we have been talking a lot about how powell performed and how he did today we're actually going to grade -- >> no, we're not. >> -- chairman powell. >> we have to. >> does he know that is he watching >> he usually watches i understand pete najarian why don't you kick it off. >> i'm throwing up a b-minus. >> wow. >> i think the cut was an "a" but the communication factor was a "c" minus. i put him at a "b" minus i think he's in an impossible situation. i think you mentioned that because of that, he did the right thing. his communication skills sometimes are lacking and i think that's what people had a hard time with today. >> guy, why don't you give us yours. >> go to me because tim is writing. >> tim is writing, exactly.
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>> i give him a gentleman's "c", for the reasons that pete said impossible situation and he's in this job now how long? about 16, 17 months and he still hasn't figured out how to talk to the media and the market. that should give him an "f", but for the effort i will give him a "c." >> tim >> you have to go on the creativity, the technical score and the overall score. >> like the olympics. >> i give him a "d", i have no idea what the fed is doing anymore. they used to be data dependent i don't know what the fed told us today in terms of creativity, look, the fact they told us a mid cycle adjustment, he could have articulated better but the bottom line is the difficulty factor of this maneuver was 720-degree hamill camel. therefore it is a "c" plus because i am disappointed with this fed and i think they could have handled the entire 2019 fed better. >> dan nathan. >> i give them a "d" because i think what is going on here is pretty shocking when you think about it this far in the cycle
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i said it here he has been pushed around by the markets. he has been pushed around by the president. there is no crisis here. in my adult life every rate cut for the most part has been to match some sort of financial crisis, and this threat of its spreading. the only crisis i see right now are in our institutions and i don't think jerome powell did a good job in instilling confidence in the independence of the fed today coming up, check out sales of retailer nordstrom ripping higher what is behind the big move and how to trade it. plus qualcomm and lam research on the move. more "fast money" right after more "fast money" right after thisble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown
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♪ welcome back to "fast money" we've got breaking news in the ipo market let's get to leslie picker with the details. hey, leslie. >> reporter: hi, melissa mile district club readying an ipo that could raise up to $3 billion according to sources i spoke to, raising up to $1 billion they have a debut targeted for september, although that timing could change, the sources say. smile direct club manufacturers and sells at home teeth
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straightening kits even though the company was founded five years ago, a source tells me they're on track for a billion dollars in revenue in 2019 i am told the company is working with jp morgan, citigroup, bank of america and credit suisse to manage this offering cnbc had a comment from smile collect club the company wrote back, the company as a matter of policy does not comment on market rumors however, we always are exploring financing alternatives to take advantage of favorable market conditions the company raise it at $3.2 billion valuation in october, and i'm told the valuation will likely be significantly higher than those levels, melissa. >> leslie, thank you leslie picker. you think about competitor align technologies and remember recently they had worse-than-expected second half guidance they cited competition from competitors here and also a down tick in business in china. >> right i think going into that side of things, i don't know if this is the time you want to put an ipo
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out there frankly. >> unless they're the competitors gaining share. >> unless they're gaining share. that part will be difficult to figure out because there are multiple different players in this area. i am a player, i used invisalign. >> i was going to say something about you looked spectacular. >> i got a gold smile. i will say this, it was very, very expensive i say that as a guy who has a little bit of money. i am looking around and thinking, wow, i can barely afford this, how do other people afford this? it is an expensive process. >> cooperman who was talking about markets and valuations, you were on the show. >> yes, i happened to be there. >> the only froth he sees in the market is in the equity market, which i thought was interesting. maybe it is the valuations that are getting a little nuts here so to me, you know, is this a fad, you know, doing this sort of thing if it is that expensive? is it a function of economy where it is and a bull market, that sort of thing >> it is a luxury. >> that's what it is. >> i think it is a function of
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private equity markets right now. we are seeing deals that are -- >> and rates. >> and rates when money is free, private equity is an asset allocation that actually sees a lot of interest and i would just say these guys raised $450 million before they ever came to market, so a very well-funded company, like every other ipo that has come through, and i think it is the nature of what we're seeing. >> it is interesting jim cramer coined this it is a selfie generation. >> they want to look good. >> to me, it doesn't matter. >> you already look good. >> you have beautiful teeth. >> i would clean up those chom pers, if i were you. >> hey, come on. >> let me say this align was a $400 stock in september of last year it is a $200 stock now, and it might be more expensive now than it was in september of 2018. what is my point is valuation absolutely does matter. >> all right coming up, sinking chips qualcomm and lam research in the red after reporting earnings we will have more on those names next plus, one social stock flying high today and locking in its
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best month in over a year. the mystery chart will be revealed later on. i'm melissa lee. you are watching "fast money" on cnbc we will be back after this quick break. ♪
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♪ welcome back to "fast money" shares of chip makers qualcomm and lam research moving lower in after hours following reports after the bell let's get to jon fortt with the latest from the companies. jon. >> lam research is basically in line on top and beat on the bottom qualcomm missed on top and beat on the bottom. investors weren't thrilled with guidance from either one qualcomm is a bigger fish so let's start there.
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two things are hurting them, fresh love for huawei in china and slowdown here is the ceo on the call. >> as a result of the export ban, huawei shifted their emphasis to building market share in the domestic china market where we do not see the corresponding benefit in product or licensing revenue in addition, our customers in the china market are working through their existing 4g inventory and deemphasizing their second half 20194g launches as they shift priorities to their 5g launches in early 2020. as a result, we do not expect the typical seasonal benefits given unique market dynamics. >> i was told before the call he is seeing the impact around the world waiting for 5g qualcomm saying business should pick up in first calendar quarter of 2020. 5g momentum looks strong they say. lam research saying the same, naturally feeling some pain in the memory market with ceo tim archer saying spending there is tracking lower than saw last
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quarter. foundry is doing better thanks to 5g ramp lots of choppiness, the execs are talking about on chips on both cards. >> jon fortt back at headquarters on the trade of these. and the big move we saw on amd today. >> hold off on amd for a second. qualcomm, it is amazing. for the size of company this is, since the beginning of 2016 the moves in this stocks over a six-month period is staggering i am about to say something, everybody probably will disagree, but $70 here, you might want to look at this fourth quarter guided. >> i love that. >> it was a disaster. >> you really -- >> no, but this was a $50 stock in january. >> enough. >> it was a $90 stock like a month ago, and here we are at the midpoint of that range tomorrow is going to be a messy day. i get it but 70 is a really interesting entry point. >> apple now, you know, buying intel as part of the business for the smartphone chips, do you want to be in qualcomm >> they might have lowered guidance enough for this current
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quarter it is worth a do somewhere in the 60s that is probably going back towards 65 before it bottoms out. if you think about that, expectations lower, one thing we know is that they settled a long-standing license dispute with apple apple we know will not have a 5g phone until 2021 they are locked into using qualcomm's chips right now guy talked about why qualcomm came back in it had something to do with intel just sold their chip modem business to apple. that's where the fear is they might have lowered earnings enough, it is cheap trading. >> you have someone agreeing. >> but i will kwquasi agree that -- >> you either agree or don't agree. ex plane. >> i will explain. the smartphone cycle is no big surprise, oem market share no big surprise, huawei no big surprise you can make the argument huawei is transitory. it has gotten through some of its bigger existential issues with apple in the short term
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i think if you look at the chips more broadly, we got to a place if you look at the semis as measured by smh or whatever you want to look at, at a 94 rsi one week ago where as over bought as they've been in two years and we pulled back 6% in five days because we should have pulled back 6% in five days. >> yes, and when i look at these names and i brought it up last week, i think there's a lot of tradeable names out there and there are other names i don't mind holding intel is one of my favorites after earnings, post earnings, 56 and change, and immediately fell to where it is, i still am a believer in that company because i think that they can still deliver. i think the rest of these are almost all trades for me, whether it is micron or amd. i mean amd is constantly this extremely volatile trader, and i look across micron, same thing $39 to $49 i mean in very rapid fashion so i love those as trades. i think they're a nightmare to hold on to in terms of trying to figure out what you're going to do with this stock longer term i think it makes it really difficult. but i look at lam research, that
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seems awfully cheap right now but it started off the year, it was up 50-plus percent coming into earnings. this pullback is not enough. if it gets under 200 it gets to be interesting for me. >> coming up, more on the wild day on wall street, stock sliding on major eyebrow raising comments from fed chair jerome powell we will break down those moves option traders is betting it is ce ua. e sqre >>omon. >> i will tell you who is so bullish on this stock. more "fast money" right after more "fast money" right after this i want etfs backed by research. is it built for the long-term? my reputation depends on it. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confide before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, read it carefully.
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bell come bawelcome back to money" a big day for the markets after jerome powell said today's cut was not the beginning of a cut cycle. that sent the dow plunging more than 400 points at the lows. bob pisani live at the stock exchange to take us through a wild day on wall street. hey, bob. >> it was a lot of fun but confusing. now, powell said his actions today were well-telegraphed and, indeed, the 25-basis point cut was well telegraphed but he did not provide the guidance the market wanted. traders levitated himself into believing a series of rate cuts were coming and powell's press conference started poorly when he implied the rate cut was a
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mid cycle adjustment which markets took to mean it could be one and done not good since most were expecting two or more rate cuts sometimes this year. the s&p dropped as you see here almost 50 points on that, about 1.5%, but then rallied off the lows as powell tried to clarify his comments by announcing, quote, i didn't say it is just one. well, that just confused things even more. what does this all mean? it highlights that stocks are pricey and there is very little room for missteps. it is tough to be bullish right now when the s&p 500 is up 20% for the year, earnings are essentially flat and there's some little clarity on global growth in tariffs and trade. what has made it easier for the bulls to stay bullish is the direction of interest rates. the markets are becoming more dependent on the belief that dovish central banks will provide a back stop to slower global growth and it is true, lower interest rates help in these situations the markets though were tilted to be in extremely dovish
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position in the outcome, and powell essentially struggled to deliver the outcome. the markets bear some of the blame here, melissa. nothing in the u.s. economic data or comments from fed officials of late provided really strong support for a continuing rate cut narrative. ubs said it best after the meeting. title of their note, the data won. back to you, melissa. >> thanks, bob bob pisani at the new york stock exchange it was an interesting take on bob's part, blame the markets for this reaction. >> well, again, i think the markets for the first five months of 2019 were really under the view as long as the fed gets out of the way and is not providing a tail wind force in terms of additional easing we're in a better place. i think the blame is purely on the communication of the fed we've been particularly critical tonight on this desk and i don't think there's anything that powell could have done having said all of that, we just were 90% through second quarter of earnings season we have gotten a relative i
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think upgrade to expectations. we do have a case where macro is mixed at best. you can't tell me that the macro is good in this country, that chicago pmi, you look at the ism numbers. we are back at 2016 levels in fact we may be back to where we want to be from a fed perspective in another six months. >> that freakout might have taken a chunk out of the markets but the next guest will tell us what could happen next time to go off the chart with mark newton. take it away. >> thanks, melissa let's look at what s&p did today and put the move in perspective. we held back where prior highs are with last september. this is important to the broader trend. that's 29.5 had. a move under that level means we will start at least a 5% to 8% correction in my view over the course of august through october. as of now it has not happened. we did see some warning signs in recent days. we saw semi conductors down 6% over the last week and the vix
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up 15% number of new lows on the nyse it almost doubled from 34 to over 70 as of yesterday. so all of this happened before today. so certainly there were a few warning signs of the market slowing a little bit, the breadth of momentum stalling that in general, today was a surprise for a lot of people and momentum gradually will turn down which i think will bring about a pull back in the market finally, which a lot of people have been waiting for for some time let's look at the dollar we moved to the highest level we have seen in almost two years, so a big, big spike in the dollar today that's coinciding with a lot of weakness in commodities along emerging markets that's something to put into perspective the huge move in the dollar most european markets obviously we're seeing those currencies start to sell off more rapidly you would think a dovish tilt by the fed would cause the dollar to stall and we have seen the opposite emerging markets bore the brunt of what happened because of the dollar you see ecm breaking down under
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the key level of prior lows. that's a negative. >> tim: we are seeing emerging markets down 1.2% today, the s&p down about a percent i'm thinking the dollar spike should lead it to under perform further. we pull down to 40, 50 or 40 that's something to watch. the start in general of momentum getting a little bit more negative on s&p after a big move and then a stall out. >> mark, i feel like the dollar is sort of the linchpin in terms of how other places and markets move so in terms of how high the dollar could go, what are you seeing where is the next resistance point? >> you know, i'm thinking we are close to a level of existence. i'm starting to get trends of exhaustion, we are getting over done quickly i'm not certain we go over to 99 and over 100 i think in the next few weeks the dollar will start to stall out and start to backtrack any sort of pull back would really coincide maybe with the em space tarting some stabilize. for now it looks early going into august. i think we will see a little bit
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more in the next couple of weeks, and, you know, we will have to wait and see for now it is premature. >> can you tell from the charts at all whether the pullback in the dollar will be a pullback or a stall to the upward trend? >> that's a great point. until we see it, you know, you need to see movement down under the prior year's lows and the broader trend in the dollar has really been very, very range bound in the last year so we haven't really seen that kind of evidence that we're going to see the big pullback in the dollar for now it has been stronger than people anticipated in recent weeks. >> mark, great to see you. thank you. mark newton of newton advisers guy, what do you think >> 2750 was the low on s&p on may 27th ride up to 30 on the 25th or so. if you look at the s&p where it finds support i think it comes in about 2890 or 3% from here. number two, you mentioned the dollar i'm glad you did because if you are looking for risk out there, don't think that the president isn't convening his inner circle, talking about,
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oh, now is the time to intervene in the dollar. let's take matters into our own hand because the dollar is like a runaway train. if it were to happen, it might work in the short term in terms of what it means to the market, i think it could be problematic. >> it is interesting here. the fed told us they lowered the insurance rate cut today because of global fears and tim mentioned the data we had that has been coming in weak, generally u.s. corporate earnings the dollar is at multi year highs, bonds go up what are they? they're safety trades. we are seeing crowding in the safety trades because flip side -- >> safety trade or is it a rotational trade >> it is a flight to quality is what is going on it is very clear. >> it is okay to be out looking for quality. i think you brought it up earlier. >> but things become very clouded. >> maybe so. i don't know we're crowded he yet. lee cooperman, you brought him up and i'll bring him up again he said, look, we are not in a bear market. i like what we're seeing, blah,
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blah, blah, but when asked the question, have you added anything, he said no that does say something to what you are talking about right now. here is a guy involved in the market, deep into it, and he's not finding the opportunities he is looking for that says a lot.i took away fro hey, you know what i got to get some more put protections out there and continue to trade but less long in terms of stocks them. coming up, twitter taking off today and up 20% on the month. is now the time to chase the rally? we will discuss. while twitter flies high, the company reports as always after the bell options traders are betting the stock will check all of the boxes. we will break down the action much more after this
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welcome back to "fast money" check out shares of twitter, up 3% today, up more than 20% in july, making it the best performer in the s&p 500 this month. will the social butterfly fly even higher? tim? >> if you look at revenue trends we have a couple of quarters of fx neutral north of 20% growth for a company people said was not growing. now, if you want to look at this on a multiple relative to a facebook and other social media, it looks really expensive and hard to justify. but relative to itself, relative to where we were on dau growth and revenue growth, i like twitter and you have to like the
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trends going into election season, world cup, all kind of other things, olympics i don't know, whatever people want to tweet about. dan? >> are you saying dan because he tweets a lot >> i think certain individuals are going to ruin twitter for the world here but one thing is interesting, you can name all of the catalysts but they're not growing in a material factor here in the such we know our average revenue per user is more in north america than in the other places to me, yeah, they're going to do $3 billion in sales this year, they've been profitable for six, seven quarters, stock breaking out. i think it is fine but they're never going to get the scale they need to be talked about in the same vein as a facebook. >> i don't know they will, but they're showing some growth to tim's point. i like what they're doing and they're showing more monetization because of that the other thing that's interesting is the call buying we saw today really short term. they expire friday but they're
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buying the 44 strike calls for $0.30 today. it looks like twitter wants to break out higher we see more and more of the trends where stocks are trying to bareak out, they use the option and they used them today. >> the other jack dorsey stock square is killing it this summer, up more than 30% since the beginning of june. options traders are expecting the payment stock to pay off dan, why don't you head to the plasma and break it down. >> let's talk about this one square reports tomorrow after the close. the options market is implying about a 7% move in either direction. that's basically in line with the move over the last four quarters and since its 2015 ipo. so the stock has been very active like mel said, it is having a heck of a year it is up 40% of the year, up 60% since december call volume ran really hot today. it was two times that of puts. interestingly in a week we are seeing some volatility in the broad market, a lot of the call activity was centered around short data calls weekly, that looks like traders playing for
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some near-term pop after results tomorrow after the close and just basically the most active call strike were the august 2nd weekly 82.5 calls, about 2,500 of those traded for an average of about 240. so looking for a breakout even up near 85 bucks if we just go to the chart, it is actually kind of an interesting setup here this stock -- wow, it looks pretty range bound it is the one-year chart it actually hit a bunch of technical resistance in and around 82.5, $82, the result of the strike the down side moving average looks like support down about 10 bucks let's go to the long-term chart since 2015 ipo and obviously once the story became know it broke out. it has been holding this up trend. we obviously had some extreme volatility, some peak to trough decline. there's that resistance right there. if you think that this company is going to post a beat in raise it is still 20% in front of the 2018 highs, playing with the fine risk calls, isolating that
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range above resistance makes sense. >> thanks for that, dan. i will do the obviously. >> would you rather? >> yes. >> you're dorsey. >> would you rather? >> yes. >> twitter or square, dorsey, is that right >> yes guys, take it away. >> brilliant! i love that. >> it is easy for me twitter, i'm telling you right now. i think dan could be right on the square but twitter is a peace point. it goes back to $47 which is the level we saw last july i think it goes higher there twitt erk twitter there, sister. >> i appreciate that call. if he is right, gitty up. >> jim >> choker, choker and a triple i have to go with twitter myself that's the one to own, even though i own both. >> for more "options action", check out the full show friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. dana is weighing in on the fed decision afterhe t day's market. that is at the top of the hour
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much more ahead. >> "options action" is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪
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you thinking what create some pain.? brace yourself. i got him. no i got him. no i got him. i got him. welcome back to "fast money" check out shares of nordstrom topping the tape today, jumping 8% on reports. the nordstrom family plans to
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increase their stake in the retailer this comes a year after they planned to take take it private. if you are a loyal viewer of the show you might recall this bold call guy made on the desk earlier this week. >> jw nordstrom report the first week of august i think squeeze it into that. >> guy, what do you do >> brilliant usually they play it brilliant. >> brilliant >> thank you they just played. >> why not >> it is almost as if the nordstrom family -- what is today, thursday? like they were watching on monday. >> they might have been. >> i will mention again, now if you are short this stock in this environment, in the earnings, you are saying omg i know what the cool kids say. that's what they say i think it goes higher from here, even still there, mel. >> really? >> yeah, really. >> we're heard this before a couple of years ago. >> speaking of nordstrom, you should get a new shirt >> okay. >> the shirt -- >> guy, it doesn't look good on
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you. >> that was not going to a good place. >> will somebody talk about nordstrom, please? >> i just did. >> besides you, guy. >> let me say this to be buying nordstrom based on what you have been waiting in line for the last two years for them to take themselves private, it is not a reason to jump in tomorrow. >> let they ask you a question. >> sure. >> the last couple of quarters they've been absolutely as bad as they possibly could be on their earnings call, and who is trying to buy them again who potentially wants to -- >> on sell. >> just throwing it out. it is kind of an interesting thing. are they somehow -- >> i don't know. >> they're telling you something. >> are they telling you something? >> i don't know. we'll find out. >> yes what are they telling you? >> well, does it seem a little who had -- >> does it seem odd they're the only ones willing to buy them? >> i think it is a little specious. >> specious? >> specious. >> s-p-e-c-i-o-u-s. >> yes. >> retailer, mel. >> i think it is interesting this stock was trading multi year lows the other day. when we talk about the consumer,
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it seems to be a huge bright spot right now. >> yeah. >> we have seen good earnings. the fed chair mentioned consumer spending we haven't seen department stores yet. >> why would you see them as a bright spot when their business is basically in danger >> structurally it looks like a race to the bottom likely we will see a combination of these things and then sales and all of that stuff. >> macy's, nordstromal, l together. >> dillard's, throw it in there. >> dillard's, throw it in there. >> up next, "final trade." let's go! ♪ ♪
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final trade time pete >> i got to tell you, the humana earnings were absolutely outstanding. this is going higher gitty up. >> tim seymour. >> with subscription services at square growing, it has been a great 18 months. square also is a name i think you can play here. >> dan nathan. >> yes, ea electronic arts up 9% this morning looked like it was off to the i races. only closed out 4% i think you trade this one with a 90 stop, back to 100. >> i want to say great call by you last night, mel. you don't even realize, but i said to you, mel, will thor be a met this time tomorrow you said sure, he will. >> of course.
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>> i mean your baseball acumen is incredible. >> it is. >> it is something -- you never cease to amaze me. >> inside baseball, you get it here. >> final trade >> that does it for us see you back h . my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all invest tors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica people want to make friends, i'm trying to save you money my job is not just to entertain but educate, teach you and put things like today in context why don't you call me at 1800-743-cnbc or tweet m me @jimcramer. what happened today.

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