tv Closing Bell CNBC July 31, 2019 3:00pm-5:00pm EDT
business borrows, households are in a good shape overall. leveraging the financial system is low, funding risk is low. overall staff's view has been and my view has been if you look at overall he financial stability are moderate the place that gets all the attention right now is business borrowing we look very carefully at that. the loans have moved off the balance sheets of the banks and into market-based vehicles, which tend to be stably funded, but nonetheless it's clear that the highly leveraged business sector could act as an amplifier, but again if you look overall at the u.s. financial system, you see a high level of resilience, and that's something to take comfort from but i think that gives us the ability to use month tar policy
for its purposes and rely on supervisory and regulatory tools, you know, to keep the financial system resilient >> so you're not doing something today to help today and then it's going to cause problems down the road? you're not worry about that kind of dynamic >> there's very few things i don't worry about at all of course we monitor -- we have every quarter an extensive briefs on financial stable we have that yesterday we look at this on an ongoing basis. we have a great team we liase around the world. we're very much monitoring these things all the time, and we worry about them all the time. we're looking for the thing that we may have missed a lot of the time the things we haven't missed, they paint a mixed picture, but
not one to prevent us from taking monetary policy actions that we think are appropriate to support the economy. >> reporter: you've talked in this press conference about being data dependent going forward and this is not the start of a series of rate cuts, but the financial markets seem to think this is the start of a series, and they're predicting three, four cuts is this your area to try to tamp down that thinking >> let me be clear it's not the series of a long series i didn't say it was just one or anything like that when you think about rate cutting cycles, they go on for a long time. the city is not seeing us in that place you would do that if you saw real economic weakness and thought the funds rate needed to be cut a lot that's not what we're seeing we're seeing it's appropriate to
adjust policy to a somewhat more accommodative stance over time, and that's how we're looking at it it's not a long cutting cycle, referring to what we do during a recession oar serious downturn if you look at other mid cycle adjustments, you'll see -- i don't know that they'll be in the end comparable or not, but you'll see examples of these. >> reporter: you mentioned the difficulty of assessing trade tensions and the economic outlook. could you say how much of a factor the u.s./china trade conflict was in the fed's decision to cut rates and the current stalemate and threat of more tariffs to continue
what would that mean for future interest rates and possible cuts >> i wouldn't bring it down to any one trade thing or any one factor we look at a broad range of factors, and trade uncertainly trade policy uncertainty is one that certainly includes the discussion with china, about i wouldn't be able to tell you how much is due to that. i think with trade we have to react to the developmentic so it's on hard to say we have seen when there's a sharp confrontation, you can see effects on business confident pretty quickly, but then we saw them unwide to some extend you see them return to a much lower temperature, i think again, with trade policy, we'll just be watching, trying to
assess the implications for the u.s. outlook >> you know, the mechanical effects of the tariffs are quite small. they're not large as it relates to the u.s. economy. the real question is, what are the effects on the economy through the confidence channel, business confidence channel? again, very, very hard to tease that out i've seen some research, you notice, which says they are meaningf meaningful, that's to say not trivial, and i think that sounds right, but it's quite -- there's no way to get an accurate measure of estimates i think businesses will tell you that it's a factor, particularly manufacturing businesses that have supply chains that cross international borders. many of them have made adjustments, and they have gotten to a place where it's
okay, but it's been a challenge. >> reporter: thanks for the question, chairman as this press conference has gotten until way, markets declined, dow down as much as 400 points, what i'mhearing is a reluctance to provide more guidance around the future path of rates, and i'm wondering if that reflects a greater lack of consensus on the committee, you know, and how much consensus do you want to see around these decisions, and how split are people about this? >> you're right, there is a range of views on the committee, but the committee is unified, completely unified on our dedication to making the best policy decisions we can make that means people have responsibility to do the best thinking and present that thinking i wouldn't have it any other
way. in terms of the way forward, we will be monitoring the factors as i mentioned we'll be doing what we need to do to support the economic expansi expansion. >> reporter: so it's been about 18 months since the fed issueded enforcement action against wells fargo. i was wondering if you were characterize the progress that the -- has made and the risk management processes, and the determination of a lack of permanent ceo has hampered progress in your eyes. >> so the problems at wells fargo that arose around risk
management and consumer -- the wait they dealt with the consumer work were actually pretty deep. i think the company realizes that, and they're not going -- they haven't been fixed quickly and frankly we didn't expect them to be fixed quickly so, you know, they had will be under the growth cap, our enforcement action, until the board votes to lift it that's not something that we're considering doing right now. the company is working away to address these issues, but they're deep-seated issues, and it just takes time i wouldn't comment on the ceo question i don't really have anything on the that. >> reporter: are you pleased with the progress -- >> i have characterized it
we have an enforcement action in play, the company is working away at addressing it. they take it seriously i think they see it, as we do, something that has to go deep. we'll lift the growth cap when we're satisfied. >> reporter: so when we have our next recessions, the fed will have less room -- it will happen -- the fed will have less room to maneuver cutting interest rates how big of a problem will that be >> you know, the premise is not -- i will question your premise for a second if you remembers, again, one of the purposes of our cut today is to support the expansion we don't know when -- if it really works, if that works well and the economy gets going again, you don't know where the
funds in other cycles, the fed wound up raising rates again again, i'm not predicting that, but i don't think that we floe that we'll have less ammo because of these things. that's one things. >> reporter: you won't be able to cut as much if rates are low, and you will have less ammo in that sense >> but you're assuming we would never raise rates that once we cut the raise they can never go back up again, just as a matter of principle, i don't think that's right in other long, long cycles long u.s. business cycles have sometimes involved this kind of event where the fed will stop hiking, in fact will cut, and will go back to hiking i don't know if that would happen here. it doesn't seem like something that's particularly likely, frankly, but we don't know that.
the other thing is, i think by extending the cycle you do have a lot of benefits from that. i think that, you know, we will use the tools that we have, a couple rate hikes one way or another won't -- and you're right eventually there will be one, and we'll use all our tools aggressively when that time comes. >> reporter: can you give us an update on the ongoing reassessment of the inflation framework, and have the discussions so far this year had any bearing on today's decision? >> so the monetary policy review is really for -- it's really there to look at the way we make policy in the longer run it's not something that enters directly into our discussions today. so far we've had a series of
meetings called fed listens, at almost all the reserve banks, and they've been very, very successful hearing from people, not just economists, but people who are not economists, how their lives interact with the fed's work it's been great, i've got to say. even better than i hoped it would be we're just beginning the process of incorporating all of that feedback with a series of meetings, beginning today and yesterday, as we evaluate the questions that we're asking about. it's very early to say where it's going we're setting the table and looking at how it's performed. i expect we'll be atthis a while. i'm are i'm very excited about it i think it's been a good exercise i think it's opened us up to night and perspectives that we
might not have gotten otherwise, and i think it's a good times. you have ten years after the crisis, you're living in a new normal, and it's a good time to step back and ask whether there are some things we can do to improve or framework >> reporter: can you give us a sense of whether the committee feels constrained at all by the market's expectations for more cuts or other developments what we did today was consistent with what we7d we were going to do i mentioned the reasons for it i think they will achieve their
goals. we do know and we think the changes we have made this year have really worked we always to adjust or communications, but -- i'll leave it there just to expand on that point we saw that markets have been particularly sensitive so the fed added language in the statement that they're -- as it monitors implications. i'm wondering now, there's this inflection point about whether or not the downside rink outweighs the fact that you still see a positive outlook, so i'm just wondering if you can
clarify all those things there really is nothing in the u.s. economy that presents a, you know, a prominent near-term threat as i mentioned, there's no segment that's really -- or sector that's really boiling over it's within the economy. it's healthy so i would say that. down side risks are coming from abroad, and by the way those risks from abroad are affecting the manufacturing sector here and business investment, fixed investment >> thank you that was a roller coaster news conference. welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." fed chair just wrapping up his press conference there have been some wild market news in the last hour. the federal reserve did go
through, cut interest rates 25 basis points as expected there were some comments during the news conference that seemed to speed stocks. listen. >> the committee is thinking of this as a way of adjusting policy to a someone more accommodative stance to further the three objectives that i mentioned. to ensure against down side risks, that those factors aresh pushing down on economic growth. so we they it will serve those goals. >> that mid cycle adjustment really senting tos to session lows the dow at one point down 478 points, on this idea that he was painting as a one and done, but then he walked that back in later questioning saying it's
not necessarily just one so he was yo-yoing back and forth. >> it felt a bit like what the market move was off his first comments, which he had some success with if we look at the intraday chart at the low we're now down a still percent. the dow down, if we look at the dollar, moved in the opposite direction, didn't get the same volatility when we got the necessary of the rate cuts. not the same volatility.
it's holden around that point. >> how he wants to frame this cut and how he wants to hint at another cut. it could be as simple as if the data keeps coming in good, we're fine, the market is not taking it that simply we're going to talk to former fed governor sarah bloom ra rasken she's here with many more voices to get you through the close. but first he's here with us to break down the -- josh -- >> i'm opening for jeremy siegel that's cool. i can do it. a. is this a big error? >> if it is, i'm not the one that can opine and tell you that my take from a market perspecti perspective, the first thing i
looked at. i looked at the stop that had big beats on earnings last week, wanted to see if the gaps would hold they did 1 you didn't see selling there, so defense an index thing. >> apple still up 3%. >> it's algorithm. we've come to expect that. >> 100%, because he's saying two things it's mid cycle, it could be one and done, but then maybe it's not. a, i'm not a fan of the press conference anyway, he, he makes one remark that 24th didn't last time -- in my day we have a briefcase with papers falling oaf it we loved it. it was good enough.
they had to give back what they took away in '94 the s&p did a swann dive, totally unprepared for the overnight hike then in mid '95, they had to goif it back you know what? we had four more years of economic expansion, 4 1/2 more years, and they cut three times. >> so why does he have to tell what you he's going to do in december let's see what's goings on maybe missiles are in the ire, in terms of trade terms, or maybe we have resolved it everyone needs to relax, buy your favorite name sarah bloom rasken is here, and brand-new cnbc contributor david vzervos, mike san toldi, art cashin from ubs.
sarah, your first take on how powell navigated that conference. >> it was critically important the communication challenge was really something this was a rate cut that people were scratching their heads saul they were saying, what why now? here you see chairman powell attempting to coalesce around a rationale, okay? the rationale is what the fed has been circling around, this idea of trade tensions, this idea of low global dizzy mand, and an idea that inflation is low. this is actually significant on the inflation front. remember, it wasn't only just -- several press conferences ago, where jay powell was saying
inflay inflations transient. we have a co's lessens around from guidance. the guidance is not particularly helpful we have a new statement in light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook are we talking terafor, trade tensions weak manufacturing not a lot of speaks fitities >> first, i think that's where jay led us before. he didn't lead es very well on that he needed to hear move about the inflation undershoot he punted on that question he could have done a much better job of saying we've missed inflation for so long by so much i think people would have gotten
the gist of what he was doing. i think it's -- this is not the starred of a recession maybe we went too far. i think we've learned something from jay in the last year or so. he's not the best communicator he makes off-the-cuff remarks that don't always work out, and the market gave them a break a bit. >> art, your take from the trading floor? >> first of all, you had two dissents, but they said no cut nobody said 50 basis points, so
that had the markets nervous going in then when he seemed to points out that this was a mid cycle cut, it was not the beginning of a series of cuts, people heard that as oh, my gosh, does he mean one and done? that's when they took the dow down 400 points. he walked back from that about 3:00, and said it wouldn't be necessarily one and done that gave the markets at sense of relax aid they're not that nervousness is still evident. >> rick santelli, what is the reaction in the bond market? has that ironed out that inverted curve >> if you look at 10s to 2s, you can see pretty much what the market thinking. for a while it was trading over 12 11 is the low going back to 2007 it's up make a couple basis
points ten-year note yields might have had if you blinged you missed it moment we're dollar dependent they said a weaker dollar. they believe that trying to run ahead of other central bank policying might get that objective. why they seek that objective should be open for debate. 'story finally starting to get legs, but the best way to think about it is think about a teeter-totter, you have overweight central banks trying to outdo each other, and then our central basket on the other side thinking what they do can possibly make a leveraged difference to accomplish what their outcome designs are. age that's a steeper curve, a weaker dollar.
at the end of the day there isn't a communication problem. we have an insolvable problem. so really the test should be what can they do to repel the best they can, rising negative rates, because all of that is affecting capitalism overseas to the point it isn't just very productive >> i think when they talk about overseas riski a spillover into weakness like capital spending from businesses. if they were trying to weaken the dollar -- -- >> you think a quarter point -- >> that's not what i'm saying. i'm saying i don't think they're targeting the dollar. >> you really think jay powell, when he closes his eyes tonight is thinking wow, that quarter point or maybe a couple more
will really address the spongy global -- global, not domestic deflationary cycles we're going through? >> he thinking we're providing insurance if we get more -- >> insurance against what? the spillover is coming through bad policies that aren't addressing the growing ills in europe you're right, the outcome is what you've just sen they're slowing. now we are doing the same thing they are what do you think our outcome will be? does that highlight how little effect this has on me. >> i think there is some of it to what extent will it
actually -- i think that's been the whole challenge. and what actually it's going to do >> it's really a skimming off the top. the market is overaggressive about what was going to come behind that? i do think it leaves investors, traders in a familiar, am bigius and contingent state i think it's also significant that chairmans that the fed has been undergoing all year, which is to change its rhetoric, change its stance, its projections, so it almost feels as if this is a kill minutation
of something, as opposed to the beginning of an easing gesture at this point, it's just an, as maybe some traders wanted. >> let's get to steve liesman. a pretty good question, not sure -- >> well, i think we have a change in regime here. i think that's the key at this point. i was very surprised that i don't think powell was ready to ploy the guidance that he thought he could be sure that reports was going to ask him for. if it's not a data dependent move and we can look at x data to know this is why we moved, he
needed to provide something else i think what he did provide is essential we need to watch headlines. 'em stanafter now will know more and kayla tausche who record on trade for this administration -- look, i think the market went a little crazy with this concern about the statement he made about it's a mid cycle correction i think pretty clearly that if you read the statement, powell probably wants to do another one here i think and have always thought three is too many. the key is we're not headline dependent and not necessarily
data dependent. >> steve, would this a bad conference from powell did he screw up just now >> i think that's a good question, wilf i would say there's a lot more skepticism on the part of the press corps about this move, and a lot more questions than normal i would also say i was very surprise surprised half of the panelists in the fed survey didn't think a rate cut is needed there's two things that go on. these are separate tracks. one is to sell graph to the markets what's coming. the other is to explain to the people who are watching the fed why it's coming. i think they did a great job tell graphs what was coming. the market got what it wanted. they did not even a great job or
poor job of explaining why they do, and we're worried about it we don't know what to -- >> so we did get two dissents, disagreements on the committee both -- he was the boston fed president. he explained to us right before the blackout period why he wo d would. >> we push asset prices only 2e6r7 ratherly up only to be disappointed and have more of a reaction on the negative side when the economy does slow right now it's on the up side president as long as the economy is doing well, if that continues, we don't need accommodation. david zervos, what is the significance >> i think there's a combination there's some politics, and i
think there is, we're way off. i think steve, all of these cnbc survey people came back and said they didn't understand the cut he wasn't great at explaining why they did the cut most of them were forecasting three or four rate hikes those were the economists on the street what the fed did in the last seven, eight months is basically tell you we are looking at the misses a lot more carefully, listening to jim bullard, to those voices who said we have a problemwith the phillips curve and the taylor rule and we have to change the framework. that was the message he went off piece. he did it in the semiannual
testimony and the market loved it i think jay is there, probably for another one, and a framework change sometime next year. that's my base case. i think the folks that were talking about the crazy rate hikes last year and a fed that was going to have to go beyond neutral were not paying attention to what's truly happening in the macro economy. i think these dissents are negative esther george, who is traditionally more hawkish, and eric rosingren, who is typically not. if you listen to jay powell's answer regarding the dissents, he's emphasizing the financial stability concerns, right? he used the opportunity to be asked about the dissents to highlight the fact that the fed
does look at financial stability. this is the reach for yield. so i think it's an important contributor to these discussions, and i think the fact you have these two dissents shows the emergence really of a financial stability perspective. >> hey, art cashin josh brown brought up the whole algo paradigm we live in now, that it's impossibility to go through the news kvrnss with all the jargon the fed-speak and signals and walkbacks, in this environment when you have computers with instant trades, how much does that have to do with the big drop, saw the comeback and once you let the air clear, it's a different environment for stocks >> it's a difficults environment, because the market
is trying to guess where we're going. a lot of people believe you won't get a lot of bang for your buck in this thing, so they're rather cautious. powell, i think -- whether he started with that mid cycle cut, the market immediately said, oh, my gosh, it looks like that will be a one and done. he had to walk it back later, as you said, but the market is still disturbed by it. we're going to have to look at the headlines tomorrow, see what gets played up, and we'll resbermt from the-- reinterpret from there >> rick, weigh back in >> the only thing i can think of ises holding a munich treaty, there were probably dissenters to get issues resolved the agreement was useless. the dissents don't tell me
anything fed fund futures actually sold off every month out to december. now, granted they bounced a bit, but the reactions are clear they're not in sync with policy, because policy will be able to unable to make this is leaks stop leaking what you pay most attention to are 10s to 2s and the dollar index. i why surprised if they hold a 2% mark and we want to pay attention to the low 19 and two-year note yield. >> financials just popped into the green. josh brown, consumer staples getting hit pretty hard, materials down 1%. where would you be buying? yet, the day before, and i think
almost every day and justified by fundamentals. you story i would be telling myself is very confirmed and in fact, 77% of companies that have reported, and we've seen pretty much everyone who matters has come out ahead, which is on the high end of normal, and now we're thinking more like 3% to 6% earnings growth and if you get that on the back of 23% last year, you're in really, really good shape. you have some of the biggest, most well-run companies in the big indices trading at a lower multiple than that and what's the big bad thing we're worried about? whether or not the next cut comes in september or it december is that what we're going to
wring our hands about? or do we say no worry about recession, andthis potential catalyst with asian trade somewhere out on the horizon, and maybe they'll spring it on us sometime before you get close to the election. you have a pretty good setup, and by the way, every other central bank has your back that's the story i would be telling myself >> i think a lot of people agree with you >> we're well off the low of the session as well. sarah, quick question on the politics, maintaining, of course, that not influenced whatsoever by the politics, do you buy that
>> i think he's trying fallianly to -- i think steve asked the key question, which could point to a little politicians of this vague notion of becoming a mechanism in which politics become the way for this administration to put pressure on the fed so i think -- i think -- >> as long as inflation is a missing target, they have that. >> i guess they do i guess they do. >> 100%. >> to that point, david, if the need for the cut is the international outlook in trade, how on earth does the cut help in a >> i'm not sure it's that helpful. the real story is the domestic story and the fact we have undershot inflation by an average of 70 basis points a year you've got to address that if you want it at the right level
you need to make them go up again. >> he didn't do a great job of that i'm disappointed he did a great job of that and i think that's the point that most of the street missed last year. he was really good about that. i don't know why he dropped the ball on that one >> because there's a growing feeling that low rates for a long time not only are not inflationary, but they're actually deflationary. they fund technological business models that come in, wreck margins for everyone look at pretty much any basis. why is oil at 60 because there's endless amount of funding for more projects and drilling you're going to get more cheap mine how does that reverse the
situation? >> a whole host of other issues. but the point is you have this 2% inflation target, and notice you're missing it in such a sizable way. i was very serious what i said in the last blurb. that's only was to lower real rates, unless they want to go deeply negative is to raise inflation expectations look how hard it's been in japan, europe. that's the great unsuccessful monetary policy. you better get expectations up before we go into the next downturn. >> steve, final word explain in a quick sound bite what the fed is being anchored to right now whether there's a next move. >> i would say it's global growth
in that order is the most important and inflation after that i know jay powell for a long time he's a super-smart guy, and i hate to make this personal, but i think i need to say this i think jay powell thinking he's a better communicator than he is and i know that janet yellen thought she was a bad communicator aened she was very careful she would read from a script i don't think there's any reason for the volatility today this thing should have been thought out and communicated much more clearly in terms of this is what we did, this is why we did it. this is how you should think about what you do next there were only three questions to a little today. i think he did a good job answering one, maybe part of two, but not three that's why you have a market that fell 400, came back 200,
and rick santelli throws up hi hands and says you guys can't do anything right we will hear from all of you later. still to come, we'll have more coverage of today's big fed decision wharton professor jeremy siegel and jim grant will join us to way in. as we head to break, a check on the dow heat map. apple still the leader today also they liked the guidance we'll be rig bhtack down after this down 240, 15 minutes until the close. - stand up if you are first generation college student.
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again essential in the nature of a mid cycle adjustment to policy. >>. >> that spooked the market initially, but then he walked it back, saying it isn't necessarily just one, but it means we're going to see how the data comes in, how the downside risks go let's drill down into how the banks have been impacted by the fed decision today wilfred, this is obviously a sector to watch. >> this is the first rate cut since the financial crisis what mechanism comes into play
typically banks will try to pass on as much of the rate cuts as they can, while keeping lending rates as high as possible. it's a function of competitiveness pressures. the issue on the deposit side for the main deposit rates is that over the course every the recent 250 basis points, they only passed on 60 basis points of benefits to customers in the first place, i.e. there's not much room for them to now cut. thus this rate cut cycle will likely see more changes for borrowers than depositors, thereby hurting banks' interest margins. mortgage rates have already come down alongside longer parts of the yield curve falling. doled man sax estimates each 25 base would hits earnings by 150 basis points on average, with
bank of america and bells fargo most hit there are some potential offsets if you see higher round growth or wealth manage goes up, but that's not instant or certain. interesting, therefore, giving these a net negative that they are off a about is, perhaps bought signal we night not get as many rate cuts. >> last wednesday we did a last changes trade. this was the trade and the technicals told you what was coming and how it would be reacted to, as often is the case we talked about u.s. bank corp look at today, still the best. suntrust, the only regional i could find with a bona fide breakout, extending at 1% today. jpmorgan still right at the highs, looking pretty darn good. the other important point to make, the financial sectors is
not only banks, it's highly stratified there's a great of dis% between winners and losers i went and looks at the financials -- all three of asset managers they're doing horrendously affiliated managers 44%, look at the best performing market access, the bond trading software is up 78% you have to look at the sector, not monolithically you have to ask what are the drivers? some of them have time before they have to raise the rate they're paying while getting a higher rate themselves that is an important consideration. i say be guided by price action, pricesh u.s. bank corp looks outstanding. >> to that point on the fundamentals of the earnings, guys, widely sceneen, if you there's there will be four or five cuts, then you buy the
morgan stanleys of the world it's got wealth management and it's geared, if we do see economic activity picked up, whereas the bank of americas and wells fargo -- >> you know how many tweets it will take to get four our five rate cuts. >> wells fargo, by the way is up there were specific comments about wells faro and whether they would lift the -- my take is he doesn't seem to suggest that was going to happen seen. but we wouldn't have expected to give a definitive he also. >> also interesting to watch is berkshire. one of the worst performing financials not bad as far as the insurance companies, but this is a stock i believe is biding its time when it does make its move it will be because the financial sector is improving, because they have -- yow side of apple,
they have a ton of financial >> and insurance and -- we have until eight minutes to the close they have come off significantly from the lowest levels josh, your last-chance trade >> i could not go off the air and talk about twitter you talk about price action. this is going to sound silly, but it's a real thing. this is a double breakout. they beat earnings last quarter, had a huge gap up, and then nothing consolidated for 9 on days, but held that gap. they just did it again, and it's three days later the stock is extending the gap that's called a gap and roll it's become accumulated. look ago vote. >> i don't see any resistance until last summer's high it could have trouble at 48, but we're not there. 42, the stock is till down over
the last five years. you are not paying up from the ipo. it's almost like a rye said, but now this company is -- next year they could be on a billion dollar revenue run raid. nobody was thinking that. >> and they're not being investigated like other competitors. no tweet from the president in reaction to the press conference. up next we're covering all the angles we've been s mutixines left to trade, down 278 points on the trade, down 278 points on the dow. kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin kevin trusted advice for life. kevin, how's your mom?
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don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis. just three minutes left to trade. mike >> well, if you're hovering around a 1% loss, here is the breadth of the decline it's not that dramatic in terms of up versus down volume not exactly a washout. but obviously skimming a bit off the top. there was a chance off you got this catalyst out of the way, there was a possible of collapse it's not really happened
coming into this meeting, this is telling you the market's not quite settled in for a summer slumber just yet let's move it to the nasdaq with bertha >> that news conference took away about a point of gains for the month of july. the nasdaq up about 2.5% we've seen some of the movers today, which is the leaders, including apple, sliding from their highing. nonetheless still strong going into the close if you sold on chips in may, you would have missed a among terr rally. on over to kelly -- or rick. >> if you really want to see what's going on, all you have to do is look at the dollar indetention, up half a rent. you see the chart going back to
early 2017 next important issue, the only maturity up on the day, is two-year note yields briefly traded 12, this chart goes back to 2007. we're not hovering a little steeper 13 1/2 in the final analysis, the only thing that really matters is that jay powell didn't get the outcomes now we're going to go back to wilf powell struggled to deliver that outcome. we saw that the markets bear some of the blame here nothing in the economic data provided strong support for continuing rate cut narrative here so bank stocks rose today initially on the higher interest rates. we saw cyclicals, they all dropped on the day, but so did many consumer staple names
it highlights that stocks are pricey it's tough to be bullish when the s&p is up for the year, and very little clarity on global growth there's the dow jones industrial average ending the day down 322 points welcome, everyone, to "closing bell. a wild fed day >> we're along tsai mike santoli. let's check in on the market's close. we did have a little batch of the selling into the close, down 1.24%. we're off the lows, but nonetheless clearly a day of selling after fed chair jerome powell said we're in a mid cycle
adjustment the market took that as meaning not as much cuts as expected, and all sectors ended lower. >> he cuts rate today as an insurance cut to protect against a downturn he also said it it's not the start of a long easing cycle, but it's not necessarily one and down >> the dollar i would point out ending up 0.6%, the euro down to the 110 handled, clearly the rate cut not delivering looser conditions. >> everyone will be looser we have an action-packed hour ahead we'll bring you the numbers as
soon as we get them. and jim grant will join us in a few moments to get hi instant reaction plus jeffries' david zervos. remember when he performed to cut his hair when the fed cut rates. he's making good on the promise. he's got all kinds of comment tears from jared leto's references, "game of thrones" characters. >> raising money for charity as well. >> i think he's going for the buzz. >> he's not doing 25 basis points gerb my siegle is with us from the wharton school jeremy is here, josh brown is still with us, and if you're just joining us here's a recap
>> we decided today to lower the target for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 2% to 2.25%. it's intended to ensure gig downside risks, to help offset the facts that these factors are currently having, and to promote a faster return of inflation we're thinking of it as essential in the nature of a mid cycle adjustment to policy >> reporter: are we now more in the realm of watching headlines of trade talks than we are watching unemployment rate and inflation numbers? >> with trade tensions which do seem to be having an effect, they evolve in a different way we have to follow them in terms of the way forward we late that out in the post-meeting statement that's a road map we'll be following.
in other cycle, the fed ended up raising rates. again, i'm not predicting that, but i don't think that we know that we'll have less ammo because of these things. it's not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts. what i said is when you think about rate cutting cycles, they go on for a long time. the committee is not seeing that >> mike, how do you interpret the action and reaction? >> it's acting as if the fed met expectations and missed guyance. i think you had traders too positioned for a much more dovish, friendly-sounding jay powell i whether say on the one practical thing you might have thought the fed was looking to achieve, which is to resteepen
the treasury used curve, not on that the fact that they came down does suggest that the market is not saying inflation expectation are going up, or that essential we're loosening financial conditions in a noticeable way just yet it doesn't change the xwroefrall picture, though. it seems like we could have been due for a bit of a haircut, so to speak >> well, let me tell you, yesterday afternoon you e-mailed me and said we need bullet points, what do you think the fed will do, and i wrote will cut 25 basis points, but not commit to further cut in september, is likely to upset the market that's exactly what happened we saw the two dissents. that's the most chairman powell has ever had that's quite a bit
there's a big contingent at the fed that doesn't want to cut rates hi could not clearly say we'll cut again. i'm on record to say they should have gone down 50. i don't like the inversion i think the short rate should be below the long rate. clearly there's a lot of people at the fed that don't think that, and i think the market is worried about that >> kevin o'leary, does it alter the way you look at stocks now >> absolutely not. i listen the to that whole conference you know, i don't know why he does that. there's no up side to doing that strainly, if you think about what everybody was doing for the whole period is trying to divine was he was going to justify this cut, which i don't think was necessary anyways, and he
basically said 65% on trade wars, it doesn't change any asset collar being more attractive, and frankly the earnings recession we are supposed to be get is we didn't even need the cut. bottom line, i think you stay the course it doesn't help any stories for credits or sovereigns, the banks were miserable i thought it was the stranger press conference >> what did you make of the strandout strong earnings. >> obviously the big index stocks did get taken down, especially in the last hour. so i think that's probably all you would explain. if anything, i might look at
that and say not so much about what it means for apple, but just the fact that it was a repositioning move going into the close in a brought sense, reduce exposure type of move, as opposed to picking out vulnerabilities. earlier software stocks have been weak, so i don't really read that much into the implied rationale for individual stock moves this day. >> earlier today, josh, we got word from beijing, trade talks wrapped up i think they used the word productive or ongoing. what happened to about questions whether a trade deal is being done is it market status quo there? >> we're oscillating between five different stories one of the big ones is the fed, so we did that today instead tomorrow we'll go back to trade and maybe it will be iran over the weekend. look, we've had days like this
before, this is nothing new to anyone that's been trading for more than 20 minutes so i do think the algos did the trading this afternoon for regular people, i would say look, it doesn't matter what you bought or sold the important thing is you panicked so, i mean i really don't think that people are out there making huge changes to their portfolios one interesting tidbit today is the 31st. you do have increasingly money being run on rules-based portfolios, either in separately managed accounts, or in some cases etfs a lot of these rules have to do with moving crossovers, so might even see an exacerbation of this tomorrow, depending on what scripts are being written and who's going to follow what i would just let it settle i agree with kevin i really don't think anything changed. i think the whole press conference is a holdover from where this was necessary to calm people down.
you need 1,000 points down going in this is unnecessary now, but it's like tonsil, so we're going to keep it. >> i don't see the need for conferences for every meeting. >> i don't get it, but they'll keep doing it. we're going to hit pause on the fed, because we have qualcomm numbers >> it's a miss on the top and bottom qualcomm turns in 4.89 billion in revenue verse 5.08 expected earnings per share and non-gaap. it should be noted that apple's payment on the settlement was not included in that revenue number if you add that in, the number would be higher. the miss there versus expectations is really on the qct unit, the chip unit. it was expected to turn in around 3.8 billion, came in at 3.57 not out guidance that's also
light. the street was looking for 5.63 billion. they're dieding to a milt appointed of 4.7 million also on earnings per share the street wanted 1.0. quality dom got into a range that would be 70 cents, of course, at the midpoint, guys. >> jon fortt, thank you. the stock has a on underperformer, qualcomm is gown for july. >> yeah, it doesn't really ride the sakele the same way, so a big of a mixed result. not too surprised. >> it's event driven it trades on lawsuits. anyone who thinking they have an edge is out of their mind. >> it's a patent litigation play. >> it will be interesting to see what they think of the apple and -- >> does that mean you're not touching it? >> what do i know?
this is lieutenant rally going to go up down 10 to 20%. >> what would i be doing with that if you're in chip land, you're paying much more attention to amd. those markets are way more important to your confidence or lack thereof. >> if you look at the losers today -- >> that's on gaming, right by the way, micron up this month, 16%, actually one of the biggest winners for july, which we should note, josh said last day of the month, it's an up month. more than 2% for the nasdaq. >> so they backed off today. that's a bit of a corrective move the d-ram index has crawled higher i think that's why it had strength recently. back to the fed.
professor siegle, what is your take now about which central bank will be able to do more than the other and what it means for the u.s. dollar? >> well, we saw the dollar because, you know, powell said i'm not sure about a september cut, it soared to two-year highs. that would about a challenge for international stocks the s&p stocks get nearly 50% of profits from their sales they're in euros, the dollar goes up. the dollar numbers then go down. you know, we have seen some recent strength finally in the russell 2000 small stocks which are more domestically oriented a rising dollar will challenge the international stocks, which is something that has to be taken into account, and we all those they would be tepid this year it looks like they probably will be tepid this year
we had a big surge last year this is not unusual. i'm not saying the bull market is over, but, you know, gains grinding out in the second half are probably certain much harder than the first half of this year. >> i'm curious, jeremy how you think the -- if we continue to get strong data, will the market embrace that good good sign? means we're not going into a recession? or is it the market going to say, all right, maybe the fed's not going to move as much? >> you know, there is that good news/bad news. >> i think basically, you know, a good economy is good for the stock market you know, the history says that, even though that might mean the fed will pause in terms of its cutting. the question is how much will the market -- will the economy heat up? will, the unemployment rate down
go 3.6, 3.5. will there by inflationary pressures? thank goodness there aren't. they haven't hit the target, powell's main argument for why he's cutting rates i think he are didn't mention is the term structure there, i was a bit surprised. i know a lot of people on that board are worried about the inversion, this puts it a bit better than it was, but not all the way, but i think basically good economic, non-inflationary, good economic news is going to be good from the storm, as long as the dollar doesn't soar to really put the pressure on the internationals, you know, you know, the market can continue to move ahead kevin, you said this doesn't change the fact that equities remain the most attractive what exactly are you looking to buy in. >> i simply look at a manager that says, okay i have to deploy
capital. if i put it in a basket of s&p stocks i can may 2.4 yield if i buy triple h before credits, i'm lucky to get 2.9 that's not some of of a spread i think it's kind of per verse, you know, if it's true that trade wars are 50% of the reason that powell is giving us a cut, not inflation, not unemployment, which used to be the primary mandate of the fed, trump has got his wish he's basically using politics to squeeze the fed's head i think we're not going to get a trade deal given by that quick lunch and everybody's left china. we're going to keep getting cuts almost because trump keeps saying i'm not doing a deal until i get a great deal, which is what i want him to do, but now the fed is playing into that it's a strange situation, really
unusual. >> as long as he doesn't raise tariff -- i don't think the market minds a delay on when they settle it as long as the tariffs aren't raised. if they keep on pushing that deadline back, that's okay for the market >> you're right. that's what the market actually -- it might not want it, but that's the scenario, we have that carrot off in the distance. >> i don't think you want to resolve the trade war, but having that fear is keeping people from acting like complete lunati lunatics >> we already have a lot of tariffs in place it's obviously hurting -- >> it's hurting the farmers, some of the automakers and the thread of 25 -- >> and the anniversary of the tariffs, i've said for a long time the best time for a trade deal is soon, but not now.
same point. >> keep pushing it. thank you all for joining us up next, jim grant will discuss whether he thinking the fed made the right move, and if another cut could be on the cards for september. later, we will discuss whether quality dom's disappointing revenues are a red flag for the chip stocks
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welcome back stocks plunging after the fed cut interest rates chairman jay powell said $no plans for a series of cuts bob pisani is having a look. bertha is doing the same at the nasdaq. >> extremely dovish outcome, the chairman did not quite liver that banks moved up a bit not as much as the rest of the market big industrial names and material names, cyclical names notably weak, but even the consumers names stayed down.
they were all on the down side as well. of course we didn't get hell from mondeles and moulsen. >> bob, thanks bertha >> apple was the highlight, ending the month on a strong note, even still, that fed swoon here took about a point of gains for the month. nonetheless that was a big factor the rest of the faang names not so much except for alphabet. netflix a big decliner chips were the strong performers, but the swoon teak about a point or two off the monthly gains. nonetheless a very strong performance. back to you.
>> bertha, thank you very much the federal reserved announce a 25 basis points rate cut, but the market seemed unsure jim grant, founder and editor of grant's observer what's your take on the press conference and what that implies? >> my main thought is if he had one thing to do over again, it would be not to have a press conference ever again. >> because he's not good at communication in general >> no. he has a difficult hand to play. >> i mean, the future is a closed book for each and ever mortgage at being, but the fed somehow is bedecked in clothing of press yen if not -- they seem to impugn foresight into in body
of perfectly well-intented, but absolutely ordinary people. >> agreed, he had a tough challenge when it came to forecasting. >> and also he is the heir to the manner of all doctrine that he doesn't necessarily write the idea there ought to be 2% inflation, where does it came from i know where it came from. it came from a great between chairman greenspan and former chairman yellen. does that make it something we all -- i say 2% inflation, i heard that all afternoon why? what does does inflation do us >> should we have not seen any cut at all >> well, as the "wall street journal" noted, and as judy sheldon has noteds and greg ipp -- am i touching all the
bases there? the fed is only the third worst. the other boj and -- >> the bank of england, we passed that era in history >> what do you mean, jim >> bank of japan and ecb have killed their,ive bond markets. they would be under indictment if the market was a human being. i'm talking about aty tiff death, sarah the central banks have killed the risk sensors of these markets. if that weren't enough, we have the two leading lights of wall street, layry fink and rick reider saying the ecb really ought to buy equities. how about price discovery for a program?
how about price discovery? implts appointing a -- >> you're not a fan of the central bank buying stock. >> i'm not fan of that point of view >> so it sounds like you don't agree with the rate cut -- >> i don't agree with the regime i have no opinion on 25 basis or points what i emphatically have an position on, is the this improvisation of conducted by people who -- for example, if chairman powell had only said this is our policy, now let's look at some of the perhaps unintended possible consequences, it's a -- we all see these medication ads, right? when will we hear one word about
side effects of these doctors of money? to die of the doctor and the world markets are dying of these doctors. when does it end >> ten years ago i really don't know. it ends with the consequences of price discovery and the done trick, the adulteration of interest rates playing out nobody gets a yield, everyone strives and reaches and grope for something called a yield. >> do you thing judy shelton on the fed, if she gets confirmed, starts to raise these questions? >> yes she may or may not have much
influence, but she could have terrific influence outdoors. he can invite people to consider the unintended consequences it's like here are the drawbacks ofiesteryear, here's what we have today, let us think about what we have now and i think she will. >> doesn't she also have to do what the president wants >> of course she's part of a collegial organization, but the fed has a thing called the office of inclusion and diversity. >> surely there is room for someone with a diverse point of view still ahead, qualcomm shares falling off missing qualcomm's
selling price decreased 19% to $86 per device, and fitbit says that's due to the introduction of more affordable devices now, on guidance fitbit now expect a much bigger than expected loss for the year saying wheel we're disappointed, we remain confident in our los angeles-term transformation strategy, but clearly investors rye view the numbers president stock was down as much as 19% position come off the lowing, but still down about 12%. >> seema, thank you very much. >> different performance, in and out unrelated to apple's success most likely, and probably pointing up why apple is better positioned that was a $42 stock, fitbit it looks very much like go pro charts kind of a single gadget, somewhat faddish time for the news update hi, sue.
>> here's what's happening at this hour. a massive refinery fire outside of houston has injured 37 people and forced local authorities to issue a shelter in place order for residents. smoke began billows earlier today after an explosion. lawmakers used a hearing today to blast f.a.a. officials over their handling of the boeing 737 max jet which has been grounded since march. the agency has come under fire for only issuing a warning to pilots after the first incident. connecticut has become the latest state to open an investigation into juul. in an effort to curb the rise in youth vaping, attorney general william tong will look at the company whether it was illegally advertising products hyundai says it would make the reseat warning standard on all models after the vehicle is park, the
technology uses sensoring to detect weight or movement and will display an alert to check the rear for a passenger as much such as sleeping child. >> you forgot you left your child there? >> it has happened, especially in extreme weather conditions, unfortunately fatalities, people forget they have the kid in the backseat of the car. you know, thougher in a hurry. if it's extremely hot or extremely cold, obviously the consequences pretty severe hyundai is one of the first to make it standard. >> there we go sue, thank you very much. still to come we will discuss how stock and bond investors should be putting their money to work in the first of a fed rate cut in more than a decade. plus david zervos is about
we're getting fresh comments from the qualcomm ceo. jon fortt has more. >> i showed a 5% beat. i just got off the phone with the ceo. he said they had good execution in a weaker market, and that the softer market was due to reaction in the china market to the ban on huawei. just customers loyally going to huawei, shifting market share away from other companies. he also said there's another effect going on, where handset makers are burning off their existing 4g inventory. he expects that continue throughout this calendar year. he also said that oems are paying them licensing fees
he said they have a patent agreement, but a multigeneration product agreement on mod manies, so some period of years there, not necessarily six, but he feels good about their ability to compete, i said even though this is an apple that went half intel before he said yes, he still feels comfortable. he thinking on 5g we'll see how that works out, guys thank you, jon the if earl reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade david zervos, if you don't know, david hasn't always had the long hair he's had recently he's been growing it for some time and if the fed cut rates, he would act accordingly.
>> the world wants to know when you're going to cut your hair. >> fed rate cuts. >> still not cutting your hair in. >> we're in a lot better position to get a haircut after this last might. >> we may have to get an appointment at my hair studio. >> the hair is looking lovely and long today how confident you will keep it >> it was a bit of a protest, as sarah kept pushing me. >> but a promise that david is going to keep. he's going to cut his hair sarah, live with him. >> it is that time, david. you've had a lot of looks, the
curls -- we have a makeshift -- you raised a lot of money with jeffries, quickly from clients and colleagues, goodtoday.org. they promote giving on a regular basis, so a bayly basis. we were able to -- jeffries kicked it off with $100,000. we raised $150,000 additional dollars. this comes with a $250,000 donation to goodtoday. i'm excited. i agreed to the buzz cut if we crossed the $250,000 market. we got to $250,966 so we made it just by a hair there were some great clients at the end that came through for us to make sure we got over it. >> by a hair so you're going for a buzz
>> we have a celebrity hairstylist who will do the hard work, but i feel like i get to make the first cut i'll left it to the professional it's very soft, david. >> thank you. >> there you go. that was a long time coming. you're not leaving yourself much room for further rate cuts we can talk about the beard whether we get to the qe stage. >> i this was that was about a 40 basis point cut there david, kudos. up next how to best position your portfolio following the fed's cut and the major market
as usual, powell let us down but at least he's ending quantitative tightening which shouldn't have started in the first place. we winning anyway, but i'm certainly not getting help i've been test iing the official tested me two words -- not enough this is the president who feels that the federal reserve is moving too slowly and not going far enough the president expressing frustration here on twitter in the past couple seconds, the question whether his ongoing campaign against the fed for rate cuts will continue. we saul all that activity in the run-up to today's rate cut will he tun to criticize jay powell and push for even more. there's an election in 2020. this president feels like he's being put in a bad position in terms of the economy, because
rates are too high >> i think you have already answered that with that tweet. >> that's right. >> i think the question is, can the president do anything about it i never really have a clear answer on the legality jay powell says, no he intends to finish his term president trump has said that he has to the to demeet him. >> reporter: right remember, the president appointed jay powell, this is his guy, but he's frustrated he's not going far and fast enough the question is a gray area, whether the president could fire a fed chair. the rule is he can fire him for cause, and it's never really determined what "for cause" means? does it mean not lowers interest rates fast enough? maybe in the president's view maybe yes, in powell's view maybe not. >> eamon, thank you. >> reporter: you bet. let's discuss what investors
should be do nest after the fed rate cut today thank you for joining us good afternoon dan, does this change your outlook when it comes to recommending stocks and sectors? >> no, it doesn't change the outlook at all i've been saying for a while people are making too much of a big deal on the fed. ultimately they can't come in on a white horse and save the day i think that's why the market is selling off a bit. just a quick point on what you were saying with regard to trump's comments, i think what people need to be recognizing is this may -- those comments may be less about sort of the economy today and more about that reelection campaign if you think about it, you're setting yourself up with a nice insurance, by saying if the economy goes south, i've been saying we should cut rates
it's not my fault, it's the fed's fault. if it doesn't happen, the economy is doing well because of my policies despite what the fed was doing. i think people need to be thinking about it through more of a reelection viewpoint. >> tom, the cut was not enough to soften the dollar. >> no. it is market has gotten ahead of itself on what the fed is likely to do. 100 basis points of price cuts prior to the meeting and i think powell poured k08d water on that the meeting in one word was hawkish. you had two dissenters wanting to keep rates exactly the same, then you had the subtle change in forward guidance to suggest that the impending cuts that the market is expecting may be less certain in the fomc's mind in isolation, the statement had a lot to do with the u.s.
economy, and if you read that piece in a vacuum, you would say the fed is pretty confident. so i expect the fed action to be less over the next 12 months than what the market is expecting. i think that would be a headwind for risk the price action today that. >> dan and tom, thank you very much for your perspectives up next, we'll look at seasonal patterns for the s&p 500 as we close out the month of july and as we head to break let's check in on david's fed cut haircut. looking good going for the full buzz. going for the full buzz. we will be back in a moment. ♪♪ ♪♪ davi
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here, hello! starts with -hi!mple... how can i help? a data plan for everyone. everyone? everyone. let's send to everyone! [ camera clicking ] wifi up there? -ahhh. sure, why not? how'd he get out?! a camera might figure it out. that was easy! glad i could help. at xfinity, we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. so come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. last trading day of july just wrapped up. let's send it back to mike
santoli for the final dashboard of the day. >> yes, sara down beat closed for the month of july for stocks today, but still a positive month overall here is the historical distribution of performance by months in yellow is all year since 1950, this is the average monthly return, and this is the past ten years after a july tendency you have weakness in august, so on average over the past ten years you had about a 1% decline in august before perhaps later in the year things pick up a little bit. you can look at this, another way of viewing it, which is this year's pattern for the second half of the year against the average of all years from the stock trader's almanac and preelection year here again we are sort of outperforming the average year in the second half, and that's what august has tended to look like, maybe a little bit of mean reversion. these are obviously broad patterns, broad tendencies, not necessarily predictive, not every year goes along with this. this is preelection years which tend to have more volatility at least through november of the
year so we will see if these have any bearing on how we go from here, guys. >> still, if we get an extra couple of percent by year it will be a positive year? >> exactly it tend to finish higher with volatility beforehand. david zervos promised to cut his hair when the fed cut rates and he delivered we will unilve the new haircut after the break. ♪ give me the hair ♪ shoulder length or longer (lively music)
♪ it is time for the big reveal jeffrey's chief market strategist david zervos promised he would cut his hair if the fed cut rates and he delivered let's see how it looks ♪ i whip my hair back and forth ♪ >> here he comes. >> there, david. okay so he had a celebrity stylist, one of the most famous haircutter in new york city. >> so we hear. >> he looks pretty good. david, looking sharp no more jared letto references, no more "game of thrones." >> does he have his ear piece in or not or not? he does? or not >> it doesn't look like he can hear. >> it doesn't look like it is. >> there it is, the cut after the fed rate cut and we raised $250,000 for an amazing charity,
and i have an absolutely fantastic hairstylist, edward tricomey, who nailed the new hairstyle. i'm excited and that we got the fed cut as well. >> thank you very much to you both thank you for keeping your promise. i mean i just wonder, sara, where it goes from here for the next rate cut because there's not much left. >> he has facial hair he says. >> right he can't hear us so we're making promises for him at the moment. >> that's fine. >> the futures market says possibly two more. >> two more? >> for this year. >> yeah. >> so didn't really change actually. >> i think it is lower probabilities for exactly how sure a thing it is in september and such, but it is still more likely than not according to the bond market that we get. >> and despite all the -- all of the hubbub about the communication and what was he really trying to say and mid cycle adjustment, blah, blah, blah, it shouldn't have altered that outlook. >> not very much, no exactly. i think he conveyed enough flexibility but i don't think it seemed there was a firm bias to
look for excuses to cut. i think that maybe in the very short term the market got greed pooe fgreed for confirmation. >> lots of global data, think it was clear that would be important. >> absolutely. it remains to be seen how the plays out on the global data front. in fact you could argue it is going to hurt trade in the eurozone and lead to a stronger dollar. >> with the dollar going up, exactly. >> and tightened conditions a little bit. >> that's the frustration in perhaps listening to the press conference or something, that there was not criteria on the next decision. what are we watching here? what is the reaction function in market terms >> what is the fed anchored to right now? >> exactly. >> because a truly data-dependent fed, i don't know if there was call for a cut today. >> exactly he hardly gave you a sense that inflation presents any kind of emergency that requires drastic action right now. >> we are getting a jobs report on friday. >> on friday. >> it will inform us a little
bit at least. >> we should point out all sectors sectors did and lower at the bottom staples down 2% and qualcomm trading down after hours as well. finally a big thanks to david zervos for sticking to his promise and raising $250,000 for charity. >> and getting a haircut on cnbc, i think it is a first, an exclusive for "closing bell." >> that does it for "closing bell" today. >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square this the "fast money" i'm melissa lee, your traders on the desk are pete najarian, tim seymour and guy adami. stock tumibling as the fed raising rates for the first time in -- cuts race, excuse me we will break down the four words that set off the powell plunge, plus instant market reaction from jp morgan's marco kalonivic. steve liesman is live in washington for us with the fed fall-out a big day. >> a big