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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  July 22, 2019 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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it's 5:00 a.m. here is your five at five. could earnings be the start of something new? more than 130 kanes in the s&p are set to report their numbers this week, including three fang names. also, mideast tensions rising new audio emerging from the moments right before iran seized a british oil tanker in the strait of hormuz last week peaceful protests turn violent. thousands take to the streets in hong kong for a sixth-straight week of anti-government rallies. and dethroned. hedge fund king ray dalio, his
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flagship fund suffering one of its worst first half performances in two decades. disney breaking office in the a box office, this time it's the lion king hauling in the biggest opening for a july movie ever. it's monday, july 22nd you're watching "worldwide exchange," and it begins right now. ♪ good morning and welcome to sh"worldwide exchange" i'm domic chu in for brian sullivan today. stock index futures inindicating the dow will open up by 54 points the s&p would be up by 6 points and the nasdaq up by 20. the major averages all coming off their worst week since may on the treasury yield side of things, we're seeing a slight tick lower in ten-year note
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yields the two-year 1.82% let's go worldwide in the asian trade. japan, this morning, you can see here down by about one quarter of 1% this as shinzo abe the prime minister declared victory in the country's national elections just yesterday it's a win that could ensure his place in history as japan's longest serving prime minister also in china, we're seeing the moves on the shanghai composite off by 1.25%, the country ice new nasdaq style tech index trading just today the star market saw shares of a 25 companies listed soar in its debut. much more on that coming up later in the show. in the european trade, for this monday morning, it's a bit of a positive picture there as well the german dax up by 1 third of one percent. the ftse 100 up by 1 half of 1%
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as well. outside of the world of stock market oil is on the rise over concerns iran's seizure of a british oil tanker may lead to supply disruptions elsewhere in the middle east and news that libya partially shut down its largest oil feed added to the rise in prices for crude that oil field has since resumed production half its normal capacity the markets may play a game of tug of war as well pulled in one direction by chances of a bigger fed interest rate cut. we'll get several numbers from several heavy hitters including the likes of facebook, amazon and alphabet as well but a massive week of earnings as you can see here who will get the upper hand? which camp let's bring in senior investment strategist tim, as we talk about the macro picture for the overall markets and interest rates, versus what's happening with these company-specific reports who wins the day the big macro picture or all
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these company reports coming out this week? >> well, when we think about what is driving markets today in our mind i think the fed's dovish pivot we saw earlier this summer in the subsequent easing of financial conditions has really been one of the most important factors for markets. so, not with standing a big disaster in any one of these key names this wee s this this week are one of the most important factors. >> tim, we talk about the number of companies out there the fed interest rate cuts will be a huge part of this story. >> yeah. >> but we have 130 s&p 500 companies all with their own stories to tell. is there any industry group in particular that you're looking at with regard to that big earnings calendar we're showing right now. is it the likes of caterpillar because of chinese trade or mcdonald's because that consumer story here in the united states or is it a company like amazon or alphabet because of the whole fang momentum trade? >> sure. you bring up couple good points worth unpicking.
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the first one with caterpillar, industrial bell weathers will tell us a lot about how big this slow down really has been in q2 and leading into now and what impact trade conflict has had more on sentiment and forward-looking guidance so i think we listened to some of those key names that will give us a picture of the extent and the depth of turmoil related to trade that being said, i think on the consumer side here in the united states, we have seen continued really strong news and i think that that will be set to continue and be one of the key drivers for this cycle going forward. i think those are two good areas to watch as we look at this week. >> the strategy you have set out that you're telling clients about right now, factors in a fed interest rate cut, a holding still, 25 bases points if they do, does the fed cut 50 bases points what is the market positioned for? >> we think of positioning for the market, there was anticipation of 50 basis point
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cut this friday earlier in the month that now subsequently been walked back. our base case and what we're talking about when we build our allocations looking forward is 25 bases point cut we don't see this as necessarily the start of capitulation on the fed's part but rather just a gradual easing of financial conditions away from probably some additional tightening that wasn't necessary last fall. >> tim, thank you very much for those thoughts we appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. china unveiling science and technology innovation board or star market happening over night. the new nasdaq style tech index soaring in its debut our eunice yoon is in beijing with the latest. is this really going to be china's version of the nasdaq? >> reporter: that's what the chinese government really hopes it's going to be the board is meant to lure away big listings from places like new york as well as hong kong to here in shanghai
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140 companies, chinese startups, have applied to list on the board. so far today 25 of them made their debut. and this step is really seen as a way to push forward china's effort to reform its capital markets. in fact, it helps to solve two problems that a lot of chinese tech startups have one is that the ipo rules have been seen as very, very restrictive, for example, a company like luck-in, the starbucks rival and chinese startup has to go to the nasdaq in order to raise money. secondly the other problem we hear about here, venture capitalists want to invest in chinese startups haven't been convinced about how they're going to get their money out that's one of the reasons why some of these companies were interested in listing on the board because for one reason the regulations are much looser. for example, a company now doesn't have to prove that it's made profits in order to go
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public so, that's been a very positive thing for people here. one startup that i spoke to said that they are hoping to see more foreign investors, but so far a lot of the international fund managers i have spoken to, dom, said for now they're steering clear because of the volatility. at the end of the day, most of the stocks ended up higher by 140% >> eunice, you brought up the idea that there are trade tensions still on going between the u.s. and china i want to bring your attention to a new york times headline we got earlier overnight about the growing distrust between the united states and china and that it has slowed. the one steady flow of chinese cash and capital into america, chinese investment is plum meting by nearly 90% since president trump took office. and i wonder if much of this is geared towards this idea that china wants to become more capital markets independent from
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the united states. >> reporter: absolutely. in fact, when i was speaking to that particular startup, they said one of the reasons why a lot of these companies are looking to this market is because they see these trade tensions and think that maybe they're not even welcome in the united states. so, for a lot of these companies including the one i spoke to earlier today they say that, you know, china is a huge market we have a lot of potential here. it will be a lot easier for us to list in this market in shanghai >> eunice yoon, live in beijing with the latest there. ray dalio under new pressure this morning under one of his flagship hedge funds rahel, what can you tell us about the performance over at bridgewater? >> good morning, dom bridgewater associates suffering one of its worst performances in the flagship fund in two decades first half of the year the firm saw pure alpha lose 4.9% through june.
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the drop follows a strong year for the fund in 2018 that's when it delivered a return of 14.6% amid market volatilit volatility much of the loss came in january suggesting the fund went into the new year expecting the worst when markets were starting to recover. the fund managed to pair some of the losses is down 1.5% this year through mid july. now last week, dalio wrote a post about paradigm shift. history has shown us and logic tells us that there is no it's the creditor who suffers from the low return the financial times saying the pure alpha fund had a tough start in 2009 and 2016 but did manage to recover those losses >> thank you very much for that. we appreciate it. when we come back on the show, mideast tension on the rise as the uk looks to hold an
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emergency meeting over the seizure of a flagship british vessel out of the strait of hormuz and then, from stephen colbert to ncis, millions of at&t customers are in the dark not because of the heat wave. disney setting all kinds of new box office records over the course of the weekend. a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns right here on cnbc your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.
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♪ a live shot of hong kong 5:13 p.m. closing out their day in hong kong a developing story this morning over the british ship seized by the iranian ref lugs nar guard last week. iran releasing new video of the seizure over the weekend as uk leaders weigh a response team coverage this morning with nbc's matt bradley live in dohar qatar and in london. matt, we'll start with you what can you tell us about what the latest developments are on the ground in the middle east? >> reporter: well, we just got some audio yesterday showing that confrontation between the royal navy and the iranian revolutionary guard core, not so far from where i am in the strait of hormuz then we also saw a shot that was carried live by iran's press tv
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showing the actual boat that was impounded by the iranian navy at the port now reflagged with an iranian flag, which is rather atypical, but here is that audio showing that confrontation take a listen. >> if you obey, you will be safe after your course to 360 degrees immediately. over. >> navy patrol boat this is british warship. >> you must not impair, impede, obstruct or hamper the passage of the mv steno-imperio. >> reporter: that would be a dramatic confrontation because you didn't hear the captain speaking there he was only hearing the iranians saying if you obey, you will be safe which is very ominous indeed then from the british royal navy, instructing that ship to stay the course. so it was a major confrontation with the oil tanker.
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huge tanker, caught in the middle of two major armies right now, it's looking like tit for tat retaliation. it's almost an eye for an eye. the british now have their ship. the iranians have a british ship and with this kind of escalating back and forth, it's hard to see how this is going to go peacefully. >> matt, live in dohar, thank you for the latest we appreciate it british prime minister theresa may will chair an emergency session today to discuss how to respond to iran and these particular moves steve sedge wick is live in london with the latest there steve, this happens as the british government is convening this emergency meeting what is likely to come out of this is there any actionable item that can come from these particular talks being held in the uk right now >> reporter: dom, it's very interesting because one thing that our viewers would know as well we have a transition nar government at the moment within 24 hours we will almost certainly have a new prime minister
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now, it could well be the current foreign sec tir jeremy hunt who has been commenting about this situation but it could be the former foreign secretary a man familiar on the u.s. air waves boris johnson who we understand is ahead in the polls that closed at 5:00 p.m. local time today yes, there will be a mrs. may cobra reaction today potentially but we will have a new government incoming with potentially a new chance given what we heard from the current one phillip hammond over the weekend. one thing we have heard and this is from one defense minister who is in the current government a man i met on many occasions former officer actually in the army as well and he's saying it's implausible to see criticism over the fact that the british didn't protect all its ships. we do not have that kind of manpower we do not have that many ships available in that part of the world at the moment. we have one destroyer in the region plus four mine sweepers another british ship is due to get to the region imminently as
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well, but it is implausible to look after and protect every ship as well as what tobias elwood was saying. saying that in response to a former admiral making some criticism. the oil price on the back of this, i wanted to make a point, matt made the point about this choke point in the straits of hormuz, narrowist, only 21 miles wide and the point is, of course, that a huge amount of sea bourn shipping around a third of global sea bourn shipping goes through that very small choke point as well, three quarters of it set for asia. so my point for our viewers looking to and fairly enough looking to trade on the situations, look at light sweet crude and brent. yes it's up between 1 and 2% but that's a very small move to up the side given where we have come from and this is a great chart. what it shows you is not only 17% lower over a one-year period that wti the u.s. benchmark has fallen but actually from this
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level on the third of october we were trading around 77 bucks, dom. that means we're down significantly in bear market territory on the oil price to have a blip around 2%, i personally and many oil commentators saying it's not that much. maybe this is also about the demand picture. >> steve sedge wick with the latest there on oil and what's happening between the uk and iran. still on deck here on the show, equifax is going to settle a slew of state and federal investors into a 2017 data breach that exposed 150 million americans accounts, social security numbers, other sensitive personal data as well. later on in the show, forget amazon's hq2, today it's state versus state in the fight of different kind of headquarters in america's heartland the full story when orwi chgecos back after this.
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♪ just past 5:22 a.m. eastern time a live shot of new york city, manhattan in particular. the days are getting a little bit longer each passing one. of course until the winter solsti solstice check of other corporate stories. cbs and at&t are blaming each other for a blackout of cbs stations on directv and u-verse starting on saturday stations in more than a dozen u.s. markets, including new york and los angeles, went dark after
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the company's failed to reach a new contract agreement cbs says it continues to negotiate with at&t but the loss of programming could last a very long time. equifax is nearing a deal to pay $700 million to settle a probe by the federal trade commission into its massive data breach back in 2017. reports say the settlement could be announced today the breech exposed social security numbers, other private information of nearly 150 million people and johnson&johnson is facing a key test in defending itself against thousands of lawsuits over the safety of its talc suits the company is questioning their conclusions. there is scientific evidence that talc can cause ovarian cancer. much more on the mideast tensions and the oil markets
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we'll speak with former exxon executive for his take on this. one of the busiest weeks of earnings on tap. we'll have earnings from facebook, amazon, alphabet and others one top tech analyst joins us with the key things to watch that's coming up
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♪ welcome back to the show
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futures right now pointing to a 44 point open for the dow. these futures gains hold to the opening bell the s&p would open by five points and nasdaq up by 17 points as well. so a green day coming up straight ahead on the show, faang in focus as three names are set to report. was netflix a sign of things to come then, mideast tensions on the rise and crucial oil supplies are in the crosshairs we'll speak with one former oil executive on his take on this developing situation in the middle east. plus, the king has returned. disney closing out a record-breaking weekend and lion king is just the beginning a very busy half hour ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns after this break
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welcome back and thanks for being with us here on y nbc. let's get a check on the other top headlines nbc the dara brown with the latest. good morning, dara. >> dom, good morning the streets of hong kong once again descended into chaos the march began peacefully until demonstrators vandalized the leann son office and spray painted security cameras the movement took a violent turn with police launching tear gas to disburse the crowd. they are fighting a proposed extradition bill and calling for reforms in the chinese territory. manhattan's longest serving district attorney has died at the age of 99. throughout his tenure he put away mob kingpins and oversaw
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high profile cases including the murder of john lennon but he was best known for his dogged pursuit of white collar criminals. he helped mold generations of lawyers including sewn ya sotomayor. shane lowry turned in a performance for the ages at the british open the 32-year-old turned in a six-shot win to bring home the claret jug he is only the seventh player over the last 100 years to win the open championship by six-plus shots what a game and so well deserved dom, back to you so dara, i know you're an early riser as well. it was a tradition to wake up at 3 or 4 in the morning to watch that coverage from the uk? >> absolutely. i watched it in the beginning then i caught the end of it when he was coming up the 18th hole it was a beautiful, beautiful game. >> absolutely. irishman winning there right in royal port rush in northern ireland a great scene.
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thank you, dara brown. here is how you and your money are shaping up half way through the 5:00 a.m. hour in new york stocks indicating higher open with the dow slated to open by 45 points. the s&p up by 5 points and the nasdaq up by 18 as well. on the bond side of things, we're seeing a slight movement in the two-year treasury note yield 1.816% the last trade year ten-year note yields, 0.239% the last trade. check on the asian markets as well. a little bit of a mixed picture over in japan, just off by one quarter of 1%. the hang sang and hong kong off by .5% and shanghai off by 1.25% as well. general positivity in european markets. the german dax up and cac and france up and ftse 100 in the uk up .5%
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tech is front and center with three faang names rolling out quarter results. joining us now to break it down, managing director of equity research, netflix seems like an inauspicious start for the faang earning season can we expect more of that as facebook, amazon and alphabet report this week >> off to a rocky start with netflix, which i think was a black eye. i mean, we think you'll see a strong earnings faang names specifically amazon. that's front and center. i think you'll also see strength in terms of facebook you know, going forward. and i think that really is the key alphabet will be the trifecta we think a strong earnings from faang this week. >> which of these would be the most important one to watch this week >> i think no doubt it will be
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amazon look at microsoft last week on the cloud side, a lot of strength you're seeing, the question for amazon you're seeing strength on prime, can you also see it on cloud that's really the key to see the stock going up another 15, 20% i think you will see on amazon then a big focus if you look, you have regulatory head winds across the board can these companies fundamentally improve themselves that's why it's a key week for tech in our opinion to see new highs. >> big tech regulation is obviously front and center for many of these companies. which of those faang companies in your mind is the most exposed or has the most potential issue with regulation coming from the government >> i think right now the bright spot is definitely more in amazon and facebook. i think you see facebook going down to the hill, especially with crypto, that's going to continue to be definitely an issue. you're not going to see zuckerberg having candle light
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dinners. amazon is most exposed given the aws and the ecommerce side least exposed would be apple we continue to think that's a name that has significant upside here when they report next week. >> so the leadership we have noted. especially in the s&p 500 and nasdaq composite has come from the likes of apple and amazon and facebook and alphabet the parent company of googling those megacap technology social media oriented companies are they the key to the next leg higher in the market if there were to be one >> we fundamentally think they lead the market higher and they will continue to be the bell weathers for the foreseeable future given the core trends we're seeing you have other emerging technology companies, but fundamentally faang continues to be front and center. netflix is obviously key, it's really these core three and apple in terms of trends that's why in our opinion i see 15 to 20% upside on faang.
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this week will be a step in the right direction. >> it's fair to say you're bullish here there's a downside thesis to these names. we saw them fall in the fourth quarter of last year what is the scenario in which these companies could really stumble this earning season? >> when you look at sort of mau for facebook in terms of fundamental user growth and advertising on google, i think those two combined there's a lot of worries about what's happened on the advertising market especially given more of a spotlight in terms of privacy and how these companies are focussed like a facebook that's the biggest risk for facebook in terms of on the advertising side that balancing act. for amazon, it definitely comes down to on the cloud side are they losing share versus microsoft, which reported gold numbers last week. when you look at alphabet and google, it comes down to the advertising. they'll continue to be underpromised, overdelivered specialists in the second half those are the keys right here.
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sensitivity given the black eye we saw from netflix last week. thank you. we appreciate it. beyond earnings, the fed also a very big focus for investors as well the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates next week and perhaps no industry will be impacted more than real estate joining us now is ceo. commercial real estate has done fairly well as has residential interest rates are key when it comes to real estate are you scared as a real estate ceo of what could happen if rates are not cut? >> actually no and i'll explain why we have already seen a fed reversal from a year ago when all of the talk and momentum was about rising interest rates and the fed having to be aggressive against inflation, which we thought was overdone and the markets also thought was
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overdone in the fourth quarter and a big reversal has brought down the ten-year treasury yield. that shift has gone from becoming a head wind last year to a tail wind it takes a few months for the markets to absorb all this, but the fed is now so accommodative in terms of messaging that they are going to be facilitating the life of this expansion and not becoming a head wind to it that the real estate markets are responding very favorably and the lower rates really helps lubricate the market. >> real estate and investment as a sector have done remarkably well technology has been far and away the best performer you look up there and see a yield play in real estate doing really well, what's the runway like at this point people would say that the valuations have become very stretched over the course of the past eight or nine years. >> sure. that's a normal reaction in a lower interest rate environment, rates are going to perform much better than rising
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interest rate environment. that's the first shift from a year ago but most importantly we have to remember that we're not overbuilding commercial real estate office space, for example, has been adding about a third to a half of new product compared to the prior peak of the cycle. if you look at retail space, in reaction to what's happened with ecommerce, the volume of new stores being built or any retail built is less than a third of what it was for year after year prior to the last recession. same thing with every other segment of commercial real estate, that lack of overbuilding plus an economy that's adding over 2 million jobs a year consistently in a low interest rate environment all spells pretty good outlook for commercial real estate. >> you noted right now that the strength of the economy, where there is strength overall, are there particular sectors or parts or industries within commercial real estate that you think are poised to outperform you mentioned ecommerce.
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is it warehouse space? is that the place we should all be investing right now >> ironically the ecommerce effect has been very tough on traditional retail which is reinventing and having to rebirth, but it's been a boost to distribution and warehousing space. that's why industrial is one of the favorite sectors, if not the favorite sector. you're talking earlier about faang companies and those tech leaders, those five companies combined have consumed over 14 million square feet of new office space just in the last 12 months so technology while creating some downside to the traditional real estate brick and mortar real estate in some ways, it's creating new demand for office space, for warehouse space and all these tech companies in the major tech oriented metros need workers who need housing the apartment market for portland, oregon, denver, the bay area, austin and many other markets have really been boosted
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by demand for the rental market. >> thank you very much for joining us this morning. we appreciate it. >> great to see you. >> thank you. coming up on the show, oil prices rises this morning amid major tensions in the middle east and a shutdown or at least a partial one of oil field in libya. we'll talk to a former exxon arabian gulf president, jerry bailey, coming up next. then, there's a big battle brewing in the midwest and it pits kansas city versus kansas city kate rogers joins us with that story. we'll explain. hey, dom that's right the usda is coming to town, but which side of town remains unclear. we'll eak brit all down for you coming up after the break.
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welcome back to the show an early analyst call to tell you about this morning what you're seeing there, shares of micron, the semiconductor company up by 3.5%, upgraded from buy from neutral by
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analysts at goldman sachs. the firm says it's taking a more positive view on memory stocks and believes that micron is the best stock to express that view. those shares up sharply 3.5% premarket trading. a developing story this morning over the seized british vessel by the iranian revolutionary guard last week. iran releasing new video of the seizure over the weekend as you're seeing there. uk leaders are weighing a response right now oil is gaining ground on the news along with reports that libya has partially shut down its largest oil field. as for right now, wti crude $56.59 up nearly 2%. ice brent crude futures 63.72 up 2% joining us now, current arizona energy partner ceo jerry bailey. thank you very joining us this morning. >> yes, good morning. >> why is oil not up more given all of this tension around iran? >> well, there certainly has
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been enough tension to cause a rise, but i think it's been built in over the last six months probably with all the instability not only in libya but also venezuela and then the iranian business, so, i think it's kind of setting there on the edge ready to jump one way or the other here. so it's poised for a problem. >> jerry, is there a scenario you can see developing, and you have years of experience dealing with this kind of transit issue in the middle east, is there a scenario where the military both on the u.s. side of things and perhaps allies around the world become more active in policing international waters around the strait of hormuz >> well, i think there's definitely going to be more attention and policing as you call it in the region, but i think a lot of it will be local countries in the gulf region, so that at least if tensions continue to rise, they can be in
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the forefront and save space on the iranian side so that they're not in a direct confrontation with the united states but definitely the straits have to be protected. this is vital and otherwise we will have some severe effects on world global markets not only in oil but all the things connected to it. >> is there historical precedent in your years kind of managing around the arabian area, is there a precedent for the kind of tension that we are seeing, and if so, how do you think this ultimately resolves itself >> well, i haven't seen anything -- go all the way back to '79 with the iranian revolution, then of course you have the problems with libya in the '80s, but nothing that would ever come across where it would threaten the flow of product out of the gulf, so i think that cooler heads will probably prevail, i should hope so here
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i think there's diplomatic ways that will probably go on behind the scenes, but a lot of pressure will be put on by the gulf countries because, again, they -- it's a cultural thing. it's a regional thing. and i think they know the effect on their own markets and the needs for supplies but it's something that's really reached a new level of tension that we have not seen. >> what does this mean for oil prices are we heading higher or lower is demand more of a concern? >> well, the supplies needed out of the middle east there's no question about that the price will go up if things continue to escalate i could see numbers easily reaching back to 80 and the worst case scenario actual military confrontation comes across, you could be pushing numbers up toward $100 who knows.
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it's geared by people guessing as opposed to true supply and demand need. i don't see it going down. i think we're poised for points upward. >> thank you very much we appreciate it. >> thank you well, the states of missouri and kansas have been in an economic border war for years at this point jockeying for jobs across state lines but the kansas city region recently won a relocation bid to become the new home for the two usda research agencies as they move from washington, d.c., which both states governors marks a truce in this on going battle but which state will land the jobs overall and where is there pushback kate rogers is live in kansas city with more kate, which kansas city are you in right now >> reporter: well, right now,
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dom, i'm in kansas city, missouri you can see beautiful downtown behind us here, so the usda says this relocation will save it some $300 million over the course of a 15-year lease and it says it will get its researchers closer to stake holders within the agricultural community by reloir relocating to the midwest. it this border war truce is under way. governor mike parson of missouri has signed legislation governor kelly of kansas has pledged to do the same locations in both kansas and missouri are now being considered by the usda both governors say the move is a benefit to the region while admitting they would like those jobs for their own states. >> i think everyday you're trying to sell your state. the governor of kansas is trying to sell her state too. it's always competitive. that's a good thing. it's good for us to be competitive to see which side of the border that lands on at the end of the darks i want to stress, it's a win/win for both states. >> now, the usda's relocation
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has also been controversial. one watchdog group called it reminiscent of the amazon hq2 relocation. >> this is uncle sam imitating jeff bezos running the amazon hq2 auction except that these are federally funded taxpayer jobs the taxpayers of missouri and kansas already pay federal taxes. why should they also give a hand out to the department of agricultural >> now the moving of these agencies out of washington has been controversial, dom, for another reason a lot of workers have pushed back on going. the usda said last week that more than half of the 400 workers that were offered these relocation bids either declined to accept them or did not respond. some of these workers turned their backs on the agricultural secretary sunny purdue when the move was first announced back in
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june back over to you. >> kate rogers we appreciate it live from kansas city, missouri. i'm shufr we'll see you in kansas city, kansas later on as well. on deck on the show, a huge week ahead for earning. plus, can you feel the love this morning disney's "lion king" roaring at the weekend box office those big box office numbers when "worldwide exchange" returns right after this th wipe? try new mr. clean magic eraser sheets. just wet, squeeze and erase icky messes in microwaves and on stovetops for an amazing clean, get the power of mr. clean magic eraser in new disposable sheets. we like drip coffee, layovers- -and waiting on hold. what we don't like is relying on fancy technology for help.
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time for yur executive recap. the headlines you need in 60 seconds. the remake of disney's "lion king" roaring to box office, they brought in $185 million in u.s. ticket sales during its opening days meantime, disney's avengers end game smashing its own
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records. it added $1.5 million which means it has surpassed avatar as the highest grossing film ever in history. a new report finds chinese investment in the u.s. has dropped by nearly 90% since president trump took office, among the reasons the u.s. china trade war, slowing economy rough 2019 so far for ray dalio's bridgewater. the ft reports the fund paired its losses meantime, bridgewater managed all weather fund was up 13% during the first six months of 2019 big week ahead on wall street with earnings set to dominate the agenda more than 130 companies in the s&p. to look at what investors need to watch this week is stephen whiting global chief strategist at citi private bank is it earnings or is it the fed?
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which is more important right now? >> it's got be both. i think earnings will be first we have to digest the impact of very key earnings results. i think the really interesting thing right now is that the federal reserve, the ecb this week in terms of setting out what they will likely do in coming months can have a very large impact on valuation. we have seen massive easing and financial markets. 100 basis point drop in italian bond yeelgds 200 drop in brazilian bond yields central banks can have a large effect on valuation and have a marginal positive impact on economic activity. the question is what happens after this quarter's earnings. we don't think we'll have a problem here earnings estimates as usual have been lowballed and will beat, but when you get further out and all that impact of easing is in the marketplace, what then we have 11% expected eps growth for 2020 in consensus estimates. >> let's talk about that easing. the markets right now are
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predicting somewhere between a 25 basis point and 50 basis point cut from the fed this month. >> right. >> which is it going to be, if anything at all? >> so just guessing i'll say 25 over 50. i think that the fed is really debating this. you saw on cnbc friday, you know, one fed president a voter have a point of view and you've had these comments about what are the tactics if we really wanted to make certain that we preserve the expansion, that we boost activity to have a higher command rate, higher inflation right right now, why not ease a lot right away and perhaps preserve the power to ease more later by not having to, right? the problem with all of this is that we have had two decades of reactive monetary policy to any sign of weakness and still had two fundamental bubbles and busts and had more disinflation. so it's very, very difficult place for the federal reserve to be. >> we had two decades of markets, traders and investors reacting to this type of
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monetary policy and intervention by the fed. >> yes. >> how is it reacting right now given those historical precedents and what will the markets do if they get what they want or don't get what they want >> so my speculation is that we have become quite sensitive, more sensitive over time and willing to jump in advance and speculate that monetary policy will be there to ease more so you tend to have more front loaded effects so what we have seen again especially in fixed income markets where there's been a very big rally, look, if we don't do 50 bases points at the end of july, we could probably expect some slight setback, at least, right some rise in bond yields, some potential strengthening in the dollar, if it's 25 and so you can imagine this, we have a currently strong economy. we have very legitimate signs of future deceleration and worry. if the fed is making mistake now, it's making a smaller mistake than last year when we had tightened four times plus qt
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for a whole year, quantitative tightening but this environment we could end up with disappointment even with easing right now. >> stephen whiting, disappointment, we hope not. thank you for joining us this morning. my pleasure. futures up right now "squawk box" picks up the coverage and begins right now. good morning and it is going to be a big week we'll get you ready for the earnings landslide more than 130 s&p companies are set to open their books this weekend, including three faang names. plus, the first look at second quarter gdp first then second. get the second then the first and the third. developing story the british government is deciding at this point how to respond after, as you know, iran seized one of its oil tankers. we'll show you the video of commando's landing on the deck. and disney breaking records. this is a critic-resistant film
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"lion king" hauling in the biggest opening for a july movie ever highest grossing movie of all time, avengers end game. it's monday. avatar used to be. july 22nd today, 2019. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> announcer: live from new york y business never sleeps this is "squawk box." hey, good morning welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm ross sorkin. bekesy is off today and it is a very big week. we'll be hearing a lot of numbers but we want to show you the u.s. equity futures at this hour because we're looking up and are looking higher dow jone


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