tv Fast Money CNBC July 19, 2019 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
futures in thin trading. >> yes. >> laying low. >> a little fatigue, sagging into the weekend ere i don't think we will be liberated from the fed debate because the fed owe fills are in a quiet period and we have a little bit of disagreement on exactly what happens so we are where we were going into this week i think. >> it has been great having you with us the last couple of days. we're out of town. that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site, i'm million. traders on the desk, steve grasso, karen finerman, guy adami, dan nathan. facebook, amazon, google all reporting results flex week. how to pro situation yourself ahead of the big reports a major developing story in the oil market, crude shooting higher on news iran seized two tankers in the strait of hormuz. we are watching the reaction very, very carefully karen, you are noting in the after market session the futures
look like it was reacting to this look at the oil market you would think there would be a little bit more to this than what the oil market is pricing in what do you make of in >> too political, it doesn't seem to move oil at all. steve alluded to this a couple of days ago. i don't think geopolitical risk or uncertainty has any effect on the oil market whether it is right or wrong i don't know, but i do think it has -- for the broader market i think it has huge implications, and we'll talk about it quickly. i don't think iran wouldn't do this on their own i don't think. i think clearly they have the backing of somebody out there, and i think this has far greater ramifications. i think the market is underestimating how important this is. again, a vix at 14, even before this, is too low in my opinion. >> you were concerned prior to this how much more concerned do you get because of this? >> i am concerned because of this, but not as much as i was concerned about the other fundamental things being debt, you know i am afraid of uncertainty in the economy. that we're going to start to see it in earnings for -- well,
industrial, we saw that yesterday with uri but just with spending, by how confident ceos feel in the economy, how confident they are spending on the other hand, the consumer is still going gangbusters we are seeing that, that's the strength in the market for now >> oil has been collapsing, so to guy's point, you couldn't have scripted a more bullish scenario, could you? >> oil, yeah. >> yesterday, what did iran want they wanted a deal that's what rallied the market so i think it is a little bit maybe behind the scenes, maybe a little puppeteering i'm not nervous. >> not at all? >> oil would be first to collapse iran wants a nuclear deal. that is what is going on they're trying to maybe pull a trump. >> you know, listen, crude is down 7% on the week. i will say this, if there was a real situation with fatalities or something like that and thinks ratcheted up, you would see crude back above 60 very quickly. i don't know who wants what or who is pulling strings or
anything like that what is clear is that the brits want a deal, the french want a deal, the germans want a deal. that's why they stuck to the deal, you know what i mean it has the sort of thing, a potential from the geopolitical standpoint to splinter a lot of different allies and, i know, adversaries alike. so there's nothing good about this, unless to your point, steve, you think it is just pushing everybody to the table. >> i think pushing everyone to a conclusion, to try to get a deal done i think trade is going to work in with this so i think you're right. i think it is going to be trade. it is going to be crude. it is going to be the nuclear deal, and somehow, some way, i think we all will be okay. >> here is the problem i want to be really serious, i don't mean to sound dramatic but when you start having boats being deployed and this sort of stuff, accidents happen. this is how geopolitical accidents happen we have been fortunate we haven't had this sort of stuff things are as dire as they get i don't mean we have gun boats lined up, but it wouldn't take a british ship and a couple of brit soldiers, you know, to perish and you have a situation. >> you guys are both saying we
are underestimating the potential risk that could come of this situation? >> well, there's two parts there's geopolitical risk in the world, which i believe is real. >> sure. >> however, it used to be that tensions in the middle east like this would cause havoc in the oil market. >> yes. >> but it is not the case anymore because of -- >> demand is weak. >> demand is weak and supply is different than it used to be think about u.s. supply. that sort of changes the dynamic. >> maybe the oil market is giving us a false read on the whole situation. >> i think that's at the crux of it, is that we are no longer dependent on saudi oil we are no longer dependent on middle eastern oil if it were the case, to karen's point, years ago the market would be down, oil would be ripping higher on these type of headlines. >> okay. but let's play this out further because if we are saying that the oil market won't give us the proper read on the level of tensions in this area, then the geopolitical risk that can be introduced to the equity markets could be there without knowing because we're looking at the oil
market, not reacting. >> your premise makes a son tonf sense but i look at it the other way where we haven't seen trump be trump on this we haven't seen his rhetoric ratchet as high as it could have been he has been softer he has been giving iran a way out all through this, tough on nuke but easy on these incidents. >> we will see the night is still young. >> no, the night is still young. i agree. i don't think -- ten years it was a crude story. five years ago it is probably a crude story. i don't think to karen's point it is a crude story now. i think it is a broader market story. again, steve says cooler heads will prevail i hope it is the case. to dan's point, you know, when tensions mount like this bad things can happen. i do think the market underestimates a number of things leading into this, and this is just one more thing in a week where, i mean, clearly a lot can happen. >> yes a long weekend ahead here. meantime, stocks handed in worst week since may the nasdaq falling three-quarters of a percent today as we head into a very big
week for tech earnings facebook, amazon, alphabet, chip giant intel reporting next week. we thought it would be a perfect opportunity to play a game of -- >> trade it or fade it >> that's right. trade it or fade it for a friday we kick it off here with facebook up more than 50% on the year heading into the report. so are you trading it or fading it guy adami. >> given everything i have said for the last three minutes i would say to yourself, self, guy has to fade, right >> guy is going to fade everything sounded like. >> no, i'm going to trade facebook i said it for a while. i want to hate facebook for a number of different reasons, on a number of different levels hopefully one day that will be the case you know what? it sets up really well into earnings everything is thrown against them over the past couple of months, the stock continues to go higher. the last earnings quarter was ridiculously strong. i think the earnings release will be as well and i think we make a push towards all-time highs. >> grasso. >> i agree it is like the oil thing you couldn't have scripted a more negative thing for the opposite you couldn't have scripted a more negative thing or headwinds for facebook, but it continues
to gain market share with ad revenues google continues to lose even if it is incremental, i would say trade it. >> what would be key for you, karen, as a shareholder? obviously you are trading because you are a shareholder. >> i am a shareholder so i would trade it i would agree with everything he said i think the last quarter was phenomenal i think we are going to see another very big top line. i think the question will be what are margins, right? how much are they having to spend? i think getting clarity on anything like the ftc penalty, whatever that may be, i think is a good thing for them like we saw with boeing yesterday having some sense of clarity. so i am long, not that i'm not nervous. i am, but i am long. i think, you know, marcus was definitely in the crosshairs it is over for now. >> margin is participate of this, but it was always the operating expenses when they came out with the bigger operating expense that sunk the stock in after hours. >> look at microsoft, a great quart irla quarter last night when you go to late april when we got the earnings we saw a lot of price action like this in
every one of these names, amazon, facebook, alphabet, all rallied into earnings and all saw 7% to 10% declines over the next month that corresponded with a broad market sell-off in may, but who knows what the tail was wagging the dog here we know what maga is, we know the maga complex is massive. >> and for microsoft -- >> look, look -- >> there you go. >> to my point, listen, i think google has their own specific issues if they have two consecutive disappointing result, they're going back down towards 50 amazon is to the prior highs facebook to me, i think it has done its job i don't disagree on the ftc thing. i do disagree, it is one deal. the thing they launched in early june, it is a totally separate situation here i think the headlines will trouble facebook and google. >> you have to ask, does it meep -- he never said it. >> what do you think >> i know what i think. >> he faded google, too. >> they don't know. >> see what dan has to say about amazon, also surging with
earnings up more than 30% ahead of the report thursday what do you say? >> i just don't think there's any upside again, let's go back to what i just said. you know, buy microsoft at an all-time high. buy amazon at an all-time high after they put up a good number. here is the thing. i think the risk/reward is one up, two down if they get things wrong you have a situation like netflix early in the week. >> you know how jim cramer has buy, buy, buy? >> buy, buy, buy. >> we need fade, fade, fade for dan. >> some of these guys have been around me for a long time. i don't mind fading on stock like this. when google is down at 10.50 i'm not saying sell because it is to break or anything. but to me i think you fade in an event after you have a big run. >> why are you raising your hand >> to back it up, to illustrate a point and give you evidence about what he just said. >> okay. >> i recall recently -- >> yes. >> -- when the -- that electric car company, tesla, was pushing down towards -- >> also reporting next week. >> -- specifically said, you
know what, it feels to me as if all of the news is in, people getting way too negative. >> sure. >> look at it sucking down he was spot on. >> that's right. >> stay tune for "oa" and we're going to talk about it. >> alphabet well off the highs for the year chairwoman, trade it or fade it? >> i am long this one i am most nervous about because the last quarter, unlike facebook, that last quarter for google was really problematic. i don't know if dan alluded to facebook taking share. i think the pie is growing big enough facebook can do -- first of all they need to do a better job on the call than they did. gep, i wou again, i would love to see them do something with the ridiculous balance sheet but i like it is nowhere near the highs going into the earnings. nowhere near, right. so i'm glad that it actually pulled back today. i'm long but i'm nervous another bad quarter -- >> what you would like them to do is return capital to shareholders or buy back stock. >> yes, special dividends. they don't want to be locked into a dividend payer -- >> i don't like it performed so poorly going into the earnings,
so i would be a fader for everything i just said about facebook they've been gearing market share in the ad revenue, google losing it, even if it is incremental and they have macro headwinds to worry about, them being google. >> i understand what they're both saying. i want to trade it because it makes sense on valuation, makes sense because 1300 was a recent high and here we are at 1131 and everything lines up, but it doesn't feel right it doesn't feel right. for those reasons -- fade it. >> got to go with your feelings, guy. >> fade it. >> intel, grasso what do you say? >> intel, you want to tell about who has been eating intel's lunch, amd has been. when we look -- >> would you rather on a friday? a game within a game. >> that's going to continue. that's the trend we've been seeing you are seeing microsoft spatting with intel. they're replacing intel chips, potentially rumored replacing intel chips with amd chips amd is having a stellar year not overbought i would stay with amd over
intel. i would fade intel. >> dan >> i am also fading intel but not aggressively here. i think if you see the stock back in the mid to high 40s, i think you buy it i know there are high profiles with chips, amd caught market share. i saw their ceo earlier in the week and he sounded optimistic about all of the things we spent a lot of time talking about, internet of things, autonomy, and the acquisitions they've made i think they're thinking about a much better second half of the year you have to go back to taiwan 70 and what they said, they called the bottom intel is probably a quarter or so behind that. >> coming up, your call of the day. one analyst is making a big bet on movie theaters, but is there still gold on the silver screen? we will debate it later. celebrating the 50th anniversary of the moon landing with out of this world trade four names that can rocket your portfolio higher live from times square in new york city. much more "fast money" right after this that move us forward.
welcome back to "fast money" amc getting a touch of movie magic today, jumping more than 9% after credit sweeps on the chain. with our out perform, it is the call of the day -- scares me too. amc having a rough go over the past year, but a big rebound at the box office could drive the stock higher what do you think, dan >> listen, i think it is
interesting because sentiment has been so bad about with all of the streaming and the original content coming on platforms like amazon and hulu and direct to consumer the notion is theaters are going away we know millennials like experiences but they like netflix to chill i think calling the death of the theater is too soon, especially when you think about how much good content is still made for the big screen. >> grasso? >> i feel like i have to take the other side of that only because if you look at the chart -- >> as he said it. >> no, i mean, what was the last time you went to the movies "old yeller?" >> he's in a different age group. >> when i look at it, i don't know if there's enough moviegoers to keep it alive. >> aren't children born every day? >> they are, but new people. >> a lot are grabbing my phone and watching netflix or watching amazon prime. >> five movies in the last year that grossed over a billion dollars. >> exactly >> but last year -- that's part
of why they under perform because they had such from last year -- >> 12 months -- >> they're always chasing the last greatest hit which makes it tough for them to stay alive, and they have to perform construction on the movie theaters. >> good for them it is a bold call. there is debt here, so there's some risk there. but if you look at disney with their slate and still, right, if it is not the best environment to go to the movies i don't know what is. >> "the lion king", you know, we have have a great, new ep, kevin. he sort of whispered in my ear -- that sound sort of creepy, but "the lion king" -- it is hot out there. >> are you going to "the lion king"? >> i'm not going, but a lot of people will. maybe i'm taking the other side of the other side, but there's an interest in amc. >> we're on the same side. >> we're into earnings, you have seen what happens in stocks. look at that, that's like a real lion right there. >> here is another -- it wasn't a creepy conversation that i had
with kevin earlier. >> oh, look at you, bringing kevin in. >> think about this, right what is disney doing bringing all of their content off every other platform, that's marvel, lucas, pixar, they need blockbusters and they continue to have massive blockbusters built for theaters and keep them there and they get you to subscribe so they have the catalogue for life they will do a one-two punch it is what the company is good at it will be igor's legacy. >> check out shares of dillard's, topping the tape, more than 22% today, its best year in a decade karen. >> yes although it was a year's worth of move for dillard's today. i have no idea why the stock moved. it is extraordinary actually i think dillard's, you have a duty to say something to your shareholders even if it is, we don't know what is going on or we don't comment on market rumors if there is something going on you can say that >> is there a market rumor >> i haven't heard one. >> okay. >> there is a short interest
here maybe it is a plain, old fashioned squeeze. i don't know dillard's management, you need to say something to shareholders before monday morning. >> 48% short interest in this stock. but i don't see why a short squeeze would be triggered unless there's a market rumor that would trigger it. >> you get this frenzy, right? >> right. >> it could be lemmings say i don't know what the news but that guy seems to know the news, and he's buying so -- >> okay. grasso. >> sometimes short squeeze can be triggered by levels in the stock. it doesn't have to be news somebody puts out a sloppy order. if you have a blind algo that chases another blind algo, you hit a trigger price and get leveraging and positioning. >> when do you get bought in, day one if you are short >> it is not even about -- >> i understand. i am talking about another level of force buying in. >> it could be the day after it is not a real exact science. >> we will watch it on monday. be sure to check out today's big movers right now on our website,
cnbc.com i'm million. you are watching "fast money" on cnbc here is what else is coming up on the show. >> it is one small step for man, one giant leap for manned kind >> it has been 50 years since man first stepped foot on the moon coming up, we have some out-of-this-world trades that could power your portfolio for the next 50 years. later, it is tesla time. we're handing over the keys to what's sure to be one of wall street's most watched earnings reports. asmoy"with us. "ft ne rolls on after this quick break.
welcome back to "fast money" 50 years ago this weekend history was made on the moon with neil armstrong taking his historic giant leap forward for mankind. 50 years later, what next for the final frontier morgan brennan joins us live from the condition di spakennedi florida with a look ahead. >> it has been 50 years since that historic space launch space angels calls this an entrepreneurial space age. >> we have gone from an dozen privately-funded companies in the world to now 476 companies today. they raised 22 billion of equity capital over that period of time we really have a robust market economy happening right now. >> reporter: morgan stanley estimates that the space economy could pass a trillion dollars by
2040 and other estimates go even higher than that elon musk's spacex helped lead the way with reusable rockets driving down launch costs. jeff bezos has a rocket factory down the road from here, poised to become a major and formidable player in the market overall companies are focusing on everything from 3d printing to small rockets to habitats, even space tourism while there are established airspace and defense names that are traded names like lockheed martin, boeing, north up grumman and aero jet, this new space era is poised to get its first test from wall street, likely before the yearst out when virgin galactic becomes the first publicly traded commercial human space flight company melissa. >> thank, morgan brennan let's talk about that. i mean we talked about that the day that they announced that
they were taking it public. >> they're buying it using the shell company and merging the two companies together and so sir rich and branson will be the chairman what is interesting to me is the size of the deal it is a billion and a half enterprise value, it is small. if they get the smallest things right and you invest in that over the long term horizon, you probably will have a nice piece of something in the space era you just can't access right now. you can't get blue origin or spacex. >> don't tell me that you don't believe man -- >> of course we did, 50 years ago. >> you did not believe -- >> stop, i didn't tell you you know what would be interesting? we do remotes, we go to chicago. >> oh, sure, everywhere. >> imagine from a space station. how fun would that be? "fast money" from space. >> oh, yeah. >> right >> some might argue we are already there. >> all right in argue of the moon landing anniversary our traders are bringing their own out-of-this-world stock. grasso, kick it off. >> i'm keeping the same theme.
northrup grumman, on a tight leash, exit if it trades down about 314, but i think you have 15 upside from here. >> i love this music. >> my wedding song how did that work out? >> or highway to hell. >> chair woman. >> i end up going with the most moon shot thing i can think of which is bitcoin which could be spectacularly stratosphereic or burn up in the atmosphere and leaving guys at computers crying and very, very sad both of those two outcomes are possible, so just for the biggest -- the moon shot of it, bitcoin. >> i like how she brought out the metaphor. >> i got a metaphor for you. >> okay, yes >> let's do lyft i think lyft is lifting off here. >> nice. >> it is quite at 72 bucks in april, trading ben 55 and 65 since then it is breaking out right now i think this thing gets back above its ipo price prior to earnings on august 7th. >> i will tie a rivet around the whole thing. >> do it >> 50 years ago probably one of the premiere u.s. companies, what was it?
yes, it was, general electric. right? you talk about it is going to take a while to get to mars, it might take a while for this company to get it together larry cope is your astro thaupt. >> that does it for us don't move, "options action" is up next. od for the world. but i feel like you have the potential to do so much more. can we build ai without bias? how do we bake security into everything we do? we need tech that helps people understand each other. that understands my business. we've got some work to do. and we need your help. we need your support. let's expect more from technology. let's put smart to work. ♪ ♪
hi there live from the nasdaq on this exploration friday karen was so excited she decided to stick around for the big show here is what is coming up. ♪ the countdown is on to big tech earnings, and there's one faang name mike khouw says is about to shred it up he will tell you how to trade it plus -- ♪ -- tesla earnings are on tap next week. don't get too giddy, elon, because dan nathan says it is setting up for the short of the century. he'll explain. >>