tv Power Lunch CNBC July 18, 2019 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
not only complaining from the media, or questions from the media, but different companies like microsoft and oracle and ibm. we're going to take a look at it, a very strong look at it thank you very much, everybody >> right this way. thank you. >> and that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" begins right now brian, thank you very much welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathison melissa lee is alongside president trump speaking just now about the defense department cloud contract where amazon and microsoft have been competing. let's bring in eamon javers at the white house. he ended on a busy note, eamon >> reporter: the president is
talking about there the so-called jedi contract, it's about a $10 billion contract related to cloud computing for the pentagon amazon is seen as the front-runner for that contract it is a big, big number. here the president saying that other technology companies are complaining about the way it was handled. he'll take a look at it. he doesn't specify exactly what it is he's going to do about that contract or how it will be awarded but poses difficult business decisions for them. there will be a political overlay onto this as well, tiger. as you know the president is a robust critic of jeff bezos, irked by his ownership of "the washington post" which the president says he feels is unfair to him calling it the amazon/"washington post. this could be seen by the president's critics as an effort to get back at jeff bezos. we'll see where this all plays out.
no guidance from the white house yet as to what steps the president will take here but sending a shot acrowe the bow. >> secretary steven mnuchin. >> reporter: goingses are going on right now mnuchin said there's an increase in the debt ceiling, two years of top line federal spending numbers and recognition any spending increases need to be offset >> we're working hard to reach an agreement if we don't get there in time, i am encouraging a debt ceiling increase >> reporter: the offsets a
source inside the white house tells me they're looking for about $150 billion in spending cu cuts, a number making it tough for democrats to sign on a reason this is such an urgent issue the treasury could run out of money in early september while congress is on recess. lawmakers want to take care of this as they leave for recess. republicans are floating the idea of a 30-day debt ceiling increase if they can't reach a compromise >> thank you, ylan mui dom chu has your debt ceiling playbook get ready for volatility at least near term incidents of budget impasses and debt ceiling increases. in 2011, 2013, and most recently in the fourth quarter of this past year, take a look at 2011
we had the u.s. debt downgrade at the time. the issue whether we could see that happen again. no debt downgrade but the market solidly volatile to the down side, the european debt crisis the markets did move higher in the weeks after these were resolved the other thing to watch is 2013 government shutdown happening in the fall there there was an issue with regard to whether or not we could see something similar happen again, that volatility, tensions surrounding obamacare also weighing in there. markets move lower and then higher out of there and, of course, most recently in the last quarter of 2018 into the first half of this year, the longest partial government shutdown in u.s. history we saw markets take a turn for the worse only to move higher to the record levels we've seen now a lot of other stuff in play now. the fed chair making comments and the interest rate hike, all of these two commonalities, the u.s. budget situation not the only factor in play and the
markets are generally higher in the weeks after they get resolved trade this time the variable >> dom, thank you very much. the debt ceiling not the only thing in focus today but one of the big ones trade talks with china are reportedly stalling and there are fresh concerns about earnings so what's an investor to do? senior investment strategist and shaun o'hara president of pacer etf. welcome to you both. shawn, i'll start with you since you're two steps down to my left here do you expect they will get a debt ceiling resolution this week or into next week >> i think it will get done. you just saw the notification if they can't get anything done they'll get 30 days. there's always this drama beforehand as was pointed out there's potential for short-term volatility >> let's turn to earnings and have you guide us through what you're seeing. the netflix numbers yesterday, it wasn't the earnings but the
lack of subscriber growth. so the market does feel a little bit vulnerable to banana peels in earnings reports. >> we're getting a little skittish it's been ten years in a bull market the estimators are 29-0. 29 straight quarters, they predicted a certain number on earnings they underestimated the earnings i think what we're seeing now with 20% of the companies reporting they were coming in above the consensus. i think until we get the broader issues, the trade thing is still hanging out there. the longer it hangs out there the more pressure it potentially puts on earnings because we're seeing some slowdown we can ultimately get a trade deal then you see some revisions up in earnings. 2020 looks better for earnings >> joe, you're recommending
clients, what's the primary driver of that >> well, when you see just how markets have behaved so far year to date you've had this spectacular rally. this is happening at a time global economic growth is decelerating and the earnings picture has really just been uninspiring if anything. we're looking at modestly flat to slightly positive earnings growth this year and i think when we take a look at 2020 those numbers, while they're going to accelerate, i think they're going to come down a little bit which means everything that we're seeing in the markets right now is driven by multiple expansion. can this continue on the back of the fed cutting interest rates i think you have to proceed with a little bit of caution. >> if you are underweight equities, where is that allocation going >> you go into either cash or into bonds and despite the fact that interest rates have come
down considerably i think this is part of being a little bit more defensive in your portfolio. with the rally we've seen so far this year are risks skewed to the down side? we think you should lock into some of those gains, if you will >> are risks due to the down side >> i think potential risks we have strategies that use trend following mechanisms all of those indexes are currently above. we had a nice fire drill in the fourth quarter of last year. should have given people the ability to prepare for the inevitable bull market. >> what should i buy and what should i sell, joe >> you want to keep your exposure to the u.s.
opportunistically the u.s. appears to be on solid footing and as far as earnings are concerned. second to that look at low volatility strategies. this debt ceiling fore another example of something that could go wrong i think clients and investors need to be prepared and look for ways to capitalize >> thank you very much, we appreciate your time today >> thank you coming up, the new jersey governor joined us yesterday he is suing the federal government along with the rest of the tri-state governors saying new tax rules are unfair. will it work and netflix investors not chill. shares tanking more than 10% after the company posted weak subscriber growth. will the loss of "friends" and "the office" spell doom for stngerthneli
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netflix shares tumbling, down double digits now 17% off 52-week highs. the stream giant posting a miss on subscriber growth netflix also lost about 100,000 subscribers in the united states its first quarterly subscriber loss in at least eight years as netflix continues to lose license content from its library. can its original content keep people watching? let's bring in our analyst who
is bullish on the stock. lowered his price target to $400 a share. and larry, welcome to you both why should i remain bullish at this point >> melissa, we've seen this movie before where the company significantly misses their estimated q2 and they come right back i think for us there's really nothing fundamentally different from the model as we look at the q3 guidance. it was extremely comforting to see they're expecting about 7 million global subscribers and they did point out that thus far in q3 trends seem to have react se re-accelerated we did see, however, i think there's still that potential >> they predict 7 million additional subscribers in this quarter.
>> correct >> what did they predict in the past quarter, and how far off were they? >> they did miss their q2 by 2.3 million subscribers. >> 46% >> which makes you wonder, they're saying 7 million, are they going to get it right this time >> it's a huge miss, no question, tyler. my bet is that we're going to see some reaction. remember the factors they pointed to for the miss entirely makes sense. whether it's the timing of the content slate. >> 9 plus -- >> and very importantly coming off this price increase across regions and did make the point there wasn't any particular region if you have a price increase you will see some attrition. >> we have dom chu with breaking news from the fed. comments, melissa, from the
federal reserve bank of new york president john william speaking at the central bank research association in new york today. in those prepared comments he talks a little bit about what he views interest rate policy should be when you are at near zero interest rates. the headlines from this he believes, john williams, already known as a dove on the street, perhaps even more dovish today saying they should keep interest rates lower for long er, that central banks should take swift action against adverse conditions and make best use of their tools. one of the things he mentions specifically in the context of his remarks is that the key lessons, keep interest rates lower for longer and adapt monetary policies in the context of low natural rates of interest and zero lower zlb those comments dovish from a very big dove on the new york fed. tyler, back to you
>> let's resume our conversation on netflix larry, jump into the conversation here. you are no fan of netflix. why? >> no. i think it's all about the cash. they burn $3 billion of cash you pay $150 billion for that. now at some point the cash flow has to turn around how can it turn around the last time i looked the rating agency for content showed 88 projects under review to see how good or not good they are. the cost of content production is going up. you can burn through "stranger things" in six hours you do "stranger things. at the end of the day you're paying an enormous amount of
money to have someone try to create content having disney or time warner or comcast create content 70 times to have netflix create content. the mast doesn't work. >> would you be short the stock? >> i probably wouldn't own it because it's such a cult that i think it's dangerous to short it it's gone from $46 million >> this was fine to investors as long as they saw the subscriber growth is the second quarter in any way a preview of what is to come next year? was the price hike the last netflix could pass through to raise their average revenue per user
>> there's no question the price competition will get more intense with disney, et cetera that being said i think there's something to be said about the potential savings they're going to have when you have all these popular shows pulled off the platform whether it's "the office" or "friends. that will make the content even more competitive >> they wouldn't have been paying those license fees to begin with >> they have no choice now that's a great point to larry's point, i would argue the pathway to free cash positive is clear to us. we see inflection. while they're burning through the cash every year, we think that inflection is not too far away the business model in our view is pretty kind of laid out there's still international
momentum upside with the secular trends still favoring the migration from linear to television >> all right we'll leave it there, gentlemen. thank you for joining us >> thank you coming up, we turn the page to today's big after the bell earnings report from microsoft, the trillion dollar behemoth is set to report, and so is a somewhat smaller company called chewy. it's a pet food company. its first report as a public outfit will be today everything you need to know about microsoft and chewy before they come out, those reports trading nationilchk wl econ chips. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪
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when we come together. ♪ welcome back to "power lunch. i'm mike santoli it is a tale of two chip stocks with micron higher and advanced micro lower. which is the better bet now? our trading nation team today, craig, amd was really the clear outperformer among these two for the past year or so, the last maybe month micron has made a
catch-up move. what do you see them doing from here >> from a relative perspective i'm going to be betting on the micron here. it's poised to break out i think micron has the edge. >> obviously these companies operate in somewhat different segments how does that all play into what you would prefer to bet on here if there was one you would prefer over another? >> mike, i like micron as well not only did it go down with the dram pricing glut, 50% of micron's revenues from china so it's extremely susceptible to headline risk. this is a stock now seeing a rebound with the dram pricing should correlate with nice bump in revenue a great sheet. forward earnings are going to be improving.
it can play catch-up we're long micron and i would be a buyer here >> all right i guess headline risk is headline opportunity depending on what those headlines say. we will watch it, craig and quinn. for more "trading nation" follow us on twitter @tradingnation >> ahead on "power lunch" chewy on deck for its first report as a public company plus, clash in cloud president trump weighing in on a multibillion dollar pentagon contract between two tech giants on today's tasting menu why one senator is calling for an fbi investigation into a seemingly harmless smartphone app. all this when "power lunch" returns. here, it all starts with a simple...
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here is your cnbc news update iran releasing video of a ship seized by forces accused of smuggling fuel out of the country. it turned off location tracker early sunday at least 12 killed and 60 wounded by a car bomb that exploded at police headquarters in kandahar, afghanistan immediately after the explosion taliban fighters opened fire the pentagon says it is removing turkey from the program. the decision goes against the spirit of the eye lieiaallianced called on washington to reverse it after a water main break cut water to about 200,000 people in florida, the main was damaged in a construction incident near the ft. lauderdale executive airport.
melissa, back to you we have a little bit of a comeback this hour we're sitting at session highs right now. this 15 minutes after comments from john williams the s&p has been in a tight range of 18 points the dow struggling to stay in the green just down by four points the nasdaq higher by 0.1%. the oil market is closing for the day. let's go to dom chu. tyler, we're watching what's happening with oil prices. wti crude off by just about 2.5%, down by over 3% just five minutes earlier. ice brent down by 2.5% as well what we do have is a hangover from yesterday's down side move.
remember, it was tied to the department of energy data showing a bigger build in gasoline and inventory for crude it's the third straight day of losses in a row trading below its longer and medium term averages leading to technical down side in the shorter term it seems as though markets are shrugging off the geopolitical tensions around the middle east given iran's seizure of a foreign oil tanker back over to you >> dom, thank you. a big spike interday in bit coin seema? >> it jumped $1,000 in a matter of 30 minutes, right around 10:30 a.m. eastern breaking above 10,000 which is seen as a psychological level. up about 9%. keep in mind ever since facebook announced its libra project, bitcoin has been on a tear challenging libra's ability to
get to market we've seen bitcoin and other crypto currencies come under presentation bitcoin was down 7% and then down another 11% yesterday -- excuse me, tuesday yesterday it came back up by around 1%. today we're up again even though libra and bitcoin have different attributes, the market seems to be attaching libra success to bitcoin success. amazon and microsoft vying for a cloud contract president trump weighing in on that earlier this hour >> it's a very big contract, one of the biggest ever given having to do with the cloud we'll be asking them to look at
it i've had few things with such complaining, not only from the media, at least asking questions from the media, but from different companies like micro sofs and oracle and ibm. >> with us now to discuss is timothy. welcome. good to have you with us explain. >> this is a very large contract $10 billion, one of the largest ever given out amazon seems to be the front-runner there everyone else is trying to compete. amazon is upset because they want a piece of the contract >> what is their beef with amazon here? they're too big, they can't do it >> they feel they had an unfair advantage. >> that's the origin of the issue here let's turn to the earnings and
we'll come out later today what are you looking for >> well, it's the cloud. >> azure, right? >> they are moving the customers hardware into the cloud. we're looking for that to continue the cloud continues to grow. the legacy business is seeing a one-time upgrade because of end of support, windows 7 one of them a quick migration as a result of that we're looking for a very good quarter with microsoft
>> that will pull forward? >> only 4% or 5% of sales. they're going with a 10% tax instead of 8%. that will help. >> when you look at microsoft, what sort of growth -- if we're assuming cloud is going to grow and be a bigger part of their business, what kind of growth overall in revenues are you projecting and what kind of margins will we be seeing? >> so cloud has been historically a lower margin business they cannot hire the people to keep up. it's been our thesis, it's very high >> a lot of leverage we look about 100 basis points a year revenue growth can stay in the 10% range for a couple years the base is getting so large it will go down to the high single digits
particularly as some of their legacy businesses do start to decline. >> what's the one number you should be looking at this afternoon that you'll have to pay the most attention to? >> we carry the most about revenue. they've been beating on the guidance, they've been beating on the operating income about 600 basis points year over year. >> where does the stock go from here >> well, that is the one concern on the stock it's gone up a lot and it's getting close to 30 times earnings we do think it can get to the 30 times earnings number. >> historically, what is the multiple like? 8.9 is the high in the past five years and we're at 8.6 right now. we're butting up against the high end of where they should be >> totally the p/e was more like 20 times and we're getting to 30 times.
>> timothy, thank you very much. are to the bond market now and new york fed president john williams making headlines about rates and inflation. you're very dovish >> reporter: i am reeling. this was a complete abdication of what many thought the fed's mission was to keep rates firmer, hold that base, the policies overseas. many pointing to jay powell's speech in paris where he looked like he would march right in line with the extended past crises living life near the zero low bound talking about something under 1% as maybe being closer to neutral it isn't even 2s are down
several basis points on the day. they were up on the day when they fell. look at the ten year, same way we'll see if it lasts. definitely putting 97 handling question we could all debate what should be done with the fed but this was like pushing a red blanket in front of a bull with respect to how swift the markets reacted. the equity markets responded in a positive way what's at issue here is i never would have thought 50 could be on the table back to you, tyler >> rick santelli in chicago. up next, new jersey suing the irs to get residents tax relief will jersey and other states that are part of the suit also
suing win? they have a chance we'll take you inside the hamptons home of a fashion icon. the powerhouse is next people know aflac. aflac! but not when to use it. do i use aflac when the kids get slime in the plumbing? no. that's home owner's insurance. slime in my motorcycle. no. that's motorcycle insurance. slime everywhere? ughhh nooo, there's no insurance for that. do they help when i have bills health insurance doesn't cover? yeah! that's it! aflac! gross guys. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. get to know us at aflac.com - stand up if you are first generat(crowd cheering)ent. stand up if you're a mother. if you are actively deployed, a veteran, or you're in a military family, please stand. the world in which we live equally distributes talent,
time now for powerhouse. inside the hamptons estate of a fashion icon robert frank has more. today's powerhouse is the home of the fashion designer's beach front property located in the hamptons this mega home has a unique history because it used to be an old barn in vermont. check it out when fashion mogul elie tahari fell in love with a 200-year-old barn he saw in vermont, the multimillionaire uproot it had
uprooted it. you're enjoying oceanfront on one of the most beautiful and serene beaches built in 1998 the fashion icon transformed the old structure into a 4,500 square-foot three-bedroom summer compound that overlooks a 60-foot-long heated swimming pool >> the historic barn has been reconfigured into the central living area of the home so you have a massive dining room table, a beautiful living room with a wood burning fireplace and a true chef's kitchen. >> reporter: up on the second level is the designer's barn house chic master suite. >> it has a beautiful spa bathroom, and you step out directly on to a private porch and viewing area that overlooks the atlanta ocean. >> reporter: now a days tahari says his work schedule is making
it tough to visit so he made it available to rent for $1.1 million a year it's been a tough market in the hamptons this summer, sales down 19% in the first quarter, prices down 1%. inventory almost doubling. you can still rent this house for august for a mere $450,000 >> still available >> still available >> call my realtor right now >> exactly >> thank you, robert we want to ask you about the lawsuits on taxes where governor murphy and the governors of two other states are trying to set up charitable funds into which you would pay an amount equal to your taxes and thereby be able to deduct that amount as a charitable contribution. >> one of the reasons the hamptons is suffering is because of the issue those states, the governors of those states filing a lawsuit against the trump administration to rule back the rules on state
tax deductions they have been hit hard by $10,000 cap. the suit focuses on a work around that the states were trying to use to get around the charitable fund where taxpayers could pay in to pay for schools, local governments, and get a state tax credit and take the charitable deduction from their federal taxes. new york collected $93 million in its charitable gifts trust fund connecticut and new jersey connected millions treasury suddenly said last month all of that is illegal the lawsuit said that decision is arbitrary and outside treasury and the irs' authority. what the three governors are not saying, because they're democrats, is that 96% ofthe benefits of repealing the salt cap would go to the top 26% of taxpayers. phil murphy telling cnbc there's no conflict with taxing the rich of new jersey with his
millionaire's tax and trying to cut their taxes with the salt changes. >> this is all about tax fareness it's not an us versus them we welcome the millionaires but want them to pay more to help us reinvest in the middle class, in education, transportation and all the stuff that makes the middle class in our state as strong as it is. >> we want the revenue not the federal government house ways and means ranking member kevin brady says the lawsuit will fail and, quote, the real solution ought to be cutting those brutally high taxes at the state level >> there were two things he mentioned. one i disagree with. the idea people were leaving new jersey has not shown up in the data he may be right. it has not shown up in the data but has shown up in my eyes. you hear about people who are leaving and you see it and you see a lot of houses on the market in my little high tax town
he mentioned other states have this these charitable funds. >> yes >> used for similar purposes >> that's such a smart question, tyler. this could be the achilles heel of the salt changes. georgia, north carolina, all these states have had the programs for years you could pay usually into a scholarship fund and get a state tax credit conservation easements, widely used, is the same structure. federal government, you've been allowing this in these other programs now suddenly you're saying you can't. and that's where it could be arbitrary. >> or, what could happen -- >> the rest say no more. >> that's what all these other
states are worried about, these private schools and conservation companies are pushing to say no. somehow carve us out they may do that >> thank you, robert russia wants your face and a lonely lunch ple idea to get rid of peoe. don't go away. lots on the tasting menu is next on "power lunch. key portfolio events. all in one place. because when it's decision time... you need decision tech. only from fidelity.
welcome back to "power lunch. here is a taste of some of the stories we're watching today chuck schumer calling for an fbi investigatio senator chuck schumer face app russian viral owned alters users photos to make them look old deep will he troubling that details of american citizens could go to a foreign hostile power. >> everyone has used it in the last 36 hours. >> yes you see all the photos of everyone looking like their grandfathers have you done it >> i have not. i look old enough. i don't need to look older but my son appeared with a beard last night. >> did your son look like you? >> no. no he looked like an older version of himself >> all right interesting. berkeley, meantime, will no
longer have policemen, chairmen, man holes, at least not by those names. old gender terms will be replaced with "they. other banned words, maiden, manpower, now human effort and watchmen should be called guards. >> okay. >> going too far here? >> this is -- if it makes some people feel better i'm fine with it. >> i don't like using "they" a plural pronoun to replace an individual. >> that is not -- >> that really bothers me. it's grammatically incorrect. >> that doesn't work for me as a gram attical purist as i am. >> me too. are you eating at your desk right now? more than 60% of office workers eat at their desks i do, practically every day. >> every day. >> common here at cnbc there's our producer.
>> adrianne, hey maria. >> but she's happy overall happy. >> she looks happy. >> there is one possible health benefit. eating alone can, in some cases, cause you to consume less than you would if you ate in a group. most people do eat at their desks here, i would say. >> especially for our show since we're on -- >> at lunch. >> at 2:00 you have to really eat beforehand. >> good. officials in palm beach are playing a loop of children's songs, including "baby shark" and "raining tacos" to keep people from sleeping on a city-owned rental facility. >> i feel like leeaving the set just hearing that. >> very catchy, though very catch i don't know this "raining
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like amazon and walmart marking their territory in the pet business, is chewy at risk of being chewed up by the competition? i've run out of puns we welcome in seth can you borrow any of those in your next research report. >> okay. >> you're not expecting lunch either but it's the first time that management actually has a conference call, the first time that management talks about its guidance and its outlook what are you looking at as, particularly, amazon stepped up its competition in june? >> that's right. it will be nothing to sniff at we expect guidance in the second quarter and/or for 2019. that will be scrutinized guidance will likely be in line with the consensus estimates for the top line the reason being, as you alluded to, we're seeing a more
competitive environment since the company went public. amazon is their prime competitor they have the same amount of market share in the u.s. we'll see amazon layer on the promotions. >> bulls and chewy, chewa fans, customers will say the customer service is amazing is that going to be enough of a moat if you can buy the same goods? by the way, chewy doesn't have any exclusive products at this point. they're still selling all the stuff that you can buy elsewhere. you can buy all that stuff on walmart or amazon for free shipping and for less. >> yeah. they have some exclusive products out there, represent some 5% of their sales that helps ultimate ultimately, price and delivery will be key drivers of differentiation and right now we don't see them having the advantage in those areas. >> what does the average customer spend on chewy?
>> they haven't disclosed that figure it's arnold $60 and the majority of their sales are driven by customers who buy on their auto ship program. >> you keep getting the same cat food, kitty litter or dog food on a subscription and that would be a nice way for them to monetize. >> that's right. that's one of the biggest benefits to their business model, auto ship business, representing such a big percentage of their sales, customers keep getting their subscriptions and that drives profit if a customer seal sooes a more enticing deal somewhere else, amazon or another competitor and jumps ship, you lose that stream. >> is their demographic any better is there a lot of overlap, say, with a prime member versus a chewy customer >> we've not done survey work to confirm that but i think there's a high degree of overlap. >> where do you see chewy in a
month from now when the competition starts to ramp up? >> whether amazon retains their 50% off, discounts on repeat and subscribe orders than chewy does assuming that takes place and they maintain that aggressiveness, i think chewy's revenue and/or gross revenue, and the stock will be a bit lower than it is today. >> if the stock is a bit lower, will that bring a buyer out? >> that's a good question but i don't think there's a buyer out there for this asset right now it's a stand-alone business. obviously there's a big ownership stake from pet smart i don't see another buyer out there for this asset. >> we'll be watching chewy thank you for your time. >> you bet. >> don't miss cnbc exclusive interview with chewy ceo sumit singh. >> i like the sound of that.
that's funny, chewy ceo. but i'm simple did you see the story about this passenger who tried to open a door mid flight. >> and the airline is going to -- >> bill her. >> -- bill her for that? >> $100,000. through go don't do that midflight. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to the closing bell. i'm courtney reagan in for sara eisen at the delta post as ceos prepare to meet with the president in this hour that and everything else investors need to know before the market closes. >> and i'm wilfred frost pressuring fang and media stocks outperforming and odds of a half-point rate cut rising the fed needs to, quote, vaccinate the economy from too low inflation. let's check in on what the ma