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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  July 11, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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participation that the rates are tick up slightly and one of the reasons that we saw the 3.6% go to 3.7%. a lot of people are going back to the workforce which is a positive development i was raised by a single mother with a high school education and i thank god that she had the skills necessary to support her two sons, but one of the things we can take away from the numbers specifically as it relates to education is there is power in education these numbers are three or four years old and the person who doesn't finish high school has the average wage around 19,000 high school graduate is around $29,000. if you go to college, you are $59,000. if you multifply that, the numbers are so undeniable,
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consistently speaking throughout this nation, one of the fastest ways forward is in fact education. your comment -- do you disagree with that? >> i totally agree with that >> the comment with senator cotton is a part of the challenge we had with upward mobility in our society that put the focus on education is the importance of understanding globalization and technology and the chasm that it creates for the workforce for those on one side are going to be impacted by the grow iing technology and gap being created. this economy requires a different type of education. it may not be the formal education we are all used to in the figures i talked about from the high school dropout to the person with an advanced degree that still works in addition that one, the reason why myself and cory booker and others focussed on
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apprenticeships is because our nation speaking of someplace like germany, we are woefully behind on using apprenticeships of using a mechanism or vehicle to help folk who is may not want the four-year track to achieve the income that senator cortez masto wants for her constituents and i need for mine as well. is that an accurate depiction around the globalization and technology and the importance of education? >> education for me is a short hand term that includes apprenticeships and trade schools and things like that it means things that enable you to get skills and aptitudes and succeed in the economy >> a lifelong learner will do better than than one who is not. >> absolutely. >> pat toomey talked about the goldie looks economy, which i like the term. i want to compare that against
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the woe is me economy which we hear a lot about i have a question with the number of american who is work multiple jobs. my understanding is that it's somewhere around 7 to 8% of americans. one in 15. i read an article who said the number is closer to 5% can you help me understand what is the number? is there a way for us to discern? >> yes, we can run that number down for you >> less than 10% >> i don't know. i think there is a way to know that it may be just the difference between the household survey and the establishment survey >> i think it's important for the american people to understand what the number is and how many folks are working more than one job. both sides of this aisle have a strong passion to make sure that upward mobility is still alive
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and well and part of the american dream part of that is being able to achieve a standard of living that is comfortable withouttwo jobs it would be important to figure out what the number is and b, see if there are solutions being a lifelong learner orred the standard college track i would love to have more information on that. my final thought is on trade you answered the question on trade and you have been clear on what your role is and is not when you look at around the world, gdp activity is tough .6% or uk at .4 and germany at .5% that plus tariffs and the trade volatility, how does that impact a state like mine where 1 in 11 employees are connected to the exports of our state >> i would guess those companies and people are feeling that weak
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global growth are weighing on that currently things are okay, but businesses are beginning to hold back on investment after having been quite strong in 17 and most of 18, business investment is critical it slowed down and unsrncertain around trade and global growth >> for give my late arrival. mr. chairman, how much economic uncertainty has the president delivers as he tweets about trade and the debt ceiling and multiple issues. does that help >> so i wouldn't comment on trade policy as though we were responsible for it we don't comment on it anyway.
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i will say that trade policy uncertainty as you can see from one of the charts in the report is quite elevated. many u.s. manufacturing companies have supply chains that reach across national borders and those companies are facing an uncertain situation. a natural thing to do is to hold back and i think we are seeing that in not making investments >> there is a correlation between the day to day tweets and comments and advances and movements that the president -- >> what we have been hearing for more than a year now is uncertainty going up and down it went up quite a bit in may may was a real month where we saw trade uncertainty spike around various events. i think that will show up in the data >> the economy is doing well,
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but why does wall street expect you to cut rates typically in a booming economy, rates are stable or go up. >> we do see an economy in a good place, but what we see is a number of things weighing on the outlook. we mentioned global weakness around the world you do see really weak economic performance in asia and europe and central banks beginning to address by providing more accommodation and that's a downside risk here in the united states. we see subdued inflation we are in the 11th year of expansion and at 3.7% unemployment and have been there for 15 years and inflation is below target i think many of my colleagues have come to the view that a somewhat more accommodative monetary policy may be
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appropriate. >> let me just change this topic to one issue of importance to all of us. that is recently, more so than the past, the independence of the fed has been questioned and even your role has been questioned as the federal reserve's own website points out, your policy decisions have to be based on data and your judgment and not political pressures that lead to undesirable outcomes what are the outcomes that would be produced if, in fact, the fed became more independent to political forces >> we're have a narrow set of protections that amount to our independence we think those institutional arrangements served the public and the economy well overtime. what we see in countries or
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areas of the united states when those protections are not in place is we have seen bad outcomes in particular with the high inflation that the united states experienced in the 60s and the 70s was a failure to do what they need to do it was incredibly unpopular, but it put the united states in a great place for really for a long period of time having inflation under control. those are the kinds of things. >> that comes back to my question to keep the economy going. it's as much political as is monetary policy. does that influence your decision to lower rates? >> not at all. i would want the public, it's critical that they understand we are always going to do our work objectively based on data with transparency and we will do what we think is right for the u.s.
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economy. that's what we are going to do and always going to do >> so with data, you are prepared to raise rates? >> absolutely. we do what we think is right >> a final quick question and only someone who was here for this legislation would ask, do you believe it's important to know whether they have been developed in the past before you select them? >> it is important and we do dema demand demand the relevant information on that. the question that has been raised, we get that before we make a hiring decision >> thank you, mr. chairman >> senator brown would like to ask another couple of questions and then we will be done
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>> thanks for your patience. two brief questions and a short statement. during the debate of passage, we repeatedly heard from the fed and the sponsors that section 401 would not weaken the standards of foreign keys operating in the u.s. and the fed released an implementing proposal in april that appeared to do just that. what led to that about-face? >> we try to treat similar banks similarly whether they are foreign or u.s. banks. we expect the same for our banks. >> it's not what with we were hearing from many people prior to this. because we made the argument that it could increase systemic risk
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i'll leave it at that. the last financial crisis was caused in part by huge financial institutions and wall street banks that were given free reign to take risks with the sectors of our economy taking advantage of gaps in the regulatory system, you raised concerns about the ability to regulate facebook and what would be the best most effective way to regulate a complex internet-based company like facebook with billions of users with the currency based on a swiss bank account how will you look at that? >> it's a question we are beginning to address we don't want to regulate the social media activities. that's not at all something we would have any interest in
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i don't know what the right way to get at this is, but this is a question we will have to get our arms around and the reason we are working on that now. >> okay. >> listening to your comments that you had with each of them, i want to just -- this is not a question, but i want to make a comment about how important this is we know that unemployment rates for african-americans and latino workers are higher than those for white workers. one economist said the experience of black america is one of permanent recession and one of the benefits of pursuing a high employment economy is opportunities for worker who is face the largest that you said a few moments ago. waiting eight years is not acceptable public policy the black rate of unemployment
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in the best of times is not much better than the white rate in the worst of times the economic situation of workers. you had talked about subdued inflation. i think we miss opportunities when there seems to be -- i don't think i have seen that in you, but i have seen it in the past a bias over fighting unemployment this disparity in rates between white workers and workers of color in assessing maximum employment with theically hood of unacceptable inflation as it remains remote i hope you will keep that focus as you think about interest rates and your role in the economy. >> thank you >> thank you, chairman i told you those are the last two questions and senator brown's questions about senate bill prompted me to ask a
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follow-up. i think this is self evident, but i want to be sure and let this be made a part of the record the proposal that the fed is looking at in terms of how to treed foreign banks that operated in the united states. they will not introduce systemic risk or increase systemic risk will it? >> no. remember, they only apply to the u.s. entities and they are not of that size or caliber. >> it's the same standards that we apply to our u.s. banks did you want to follow-up on that >> no. >> that concludes the questioning for our hearing. those questions are due to the committee by thursday, july 18th
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we ask you, chair mman. >> that was the fed chair wrapping up and setting the stage for a cut in interest rates later this month stocks have been mostly higher with the dow topping 27,000 for the first time ever. a bit earlier today. welcome to the halftime report, everybody. i'm scott wapner and we will debate this here on the desk john and pete and lindsay bell let's get to steve leesman in washington for us today. steve, if the chairman set the table yesterday, he served the meal today >> there was no daylight between
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powell day one and powell day two. he affirmed the market's view that the fed will cut rates in july and maybe gave us a hint about the need for the federal reserve to be aggressive there was one bit of sound that was not the most exciting, but maybe it gives us how much in july and what comes next here's what he said when asking about it >> you don't want to get behind the curve and let inflation and you get into this unhealthy dynamic where lower inflation is in lower interest rates that means less room for the central bank to react and that's a self reinforcing thing. we see it in europe. >> this idea about not getting
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behind the curve speaks of a potentially more aggressive federal reserve when it comes to cutting interest rates and the market priced in for three rate cut this is year and about a 20% chance of a 50 in july that's the minority point of view and it was about two or three before they spoke yesterday. >> they don't necessarily dissipate and those things stay with you for a while more accommodative and aggressiove policy. >> that's right. the idea of the trade problem is not going to go away it's an issue that has been there for quite a while and will remain out there it's interesting that powell's concern about the trade issue escalated in the wake of a kind of deitant between china and the
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u.s. at the g-20 what's interesting is that the data this morning went against powell huh very good jobless claims out this morning the idea of the economy weakening went the other way the reaction you had in the bond market, you had a little bit on the 10 in the last, i don't know, half our or 45 minutes of powell's speech. if you look at the two-year from the morning, you had a spike up, not huge, but a rise in the two-year yield otherwise it remained flat >> i lost count of the number of times that powell mentioned trade uncertainty between yesterday and today and the impact on business sentiment i got to say, and maybe i'm on an island here part of me wondered whether some of that was a passive aggressive shot at the white house that
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said you know what, mr. president, the problems to the extent that you think there are any problems with the economy are not because of anything that we have done it's because of your trade policy and the tariffs which have caused the uncertainty which powell himself cited so many times over the last two days >> right so, scott, what i said is accurate except for the solution to that is then mr. president, we will cut rates the way you ask. if he was being aggressive, he wouldn't be telegraphing a rate cut. he can say what he wants about how the trade tension may be the result of actions by the president or the administration, but at the end of the day, it being looks like the president is going to get what he wants perhaps as a result of what he created through trade. >> we wouldn't be having this conversation if not for the trade policy and the tariffs that caused the ceo after ceo to come on to the air and say so.
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>> scott, i think that's right you have to take seriously the underlying effects that the chairman is worried about. he talks about a lot of deep concern about what's going to happen with the capital spending that companies are holding back. now it looks like the trade on the global and the u.s. economy and capitol spending is now the driving force of federal reserve policy >> we're appreciate it as always we will see you in the hours ahead throughout the day that's steve leesman the sound byte that leesman played is the most apropos for our conversation and the dow move backs that up if there was doubt that the fed was going to be a one and done, maybe that's melting away a bit
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as the market thinks it's going to be as aggressive by the virt ul of the sound. >> no doubt that they have that interpretation with all the uncertainty talk about trade you talk about capital investment, the uncertainty factor and how many times yesterday did chairman powell talk about uncertainty multiple times they continued to bring up the topic and that plays out for a long time. the vision is not going to get any better until we get a lot closer than we are right now to a deal that uncertainty is going to be there. mr. powell will control things with this quarter point. i think 50 is out of it. the 20% -- >> morgan stanley makes a case for 50 that's what they say >> there is a lot of folks that jumped on board of that potential idea i think it's a quarter they will wait and see, but opening up the door is something
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bigger than expected >> you will get in july. powell told you that today without doing the action today what more do we need to keep the rally going? is one and done acceptable or not? >> no. it's not acceptable for what the market is anticipating the most important thing about what we have seen out of december actually is that he will not be communicating poorly i guarantee that he is going to every testimony like we saw here and every press conference making sure that what he says is going to be properly interpreted by the market. what you take out the last two days is that the fed is not done of course if things change, they could be done. what's important -- >> it doesn't sound like he expects things to be changing that quick he expects a manufacturing pull back and things dissipate in a matter of weeks. >> japan had negative rates and
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there is no inflation there. here's what's interesting. the market is still up and -- >>ing the market was up and came back and the market is up big again. i think in many respects because of the sound that leesman played and the fed is going to be as aggressive as the market wants it to be >> that's interesting, but not as interesting as the fact that the 10-year is trading at the highs of the day from the yield standpoint the bond market priced this conversation in 100% completely. equities haven't and with the global easing, marks will continue to move higher. >> how do you see it >> i almost wonder if the fed chair is using inflation as an excuse when trade uncertainty is really his major concern >> he said it so many times i couldn't even count. trade uncertainty.
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sentiment, business sentiment. >> look at the data that came out this morning it was decent. they are seeing prices increase and able to pass that along to offset the tariffs, but they are seeing inflation in their costs. this is something we had been hearing with the rise of prices and transportation and labor these are coming through >> maybe for the first time we are starting to see it in the data we had these anecdotal things from ceo after ceo and those on the other side would say it's not showing up in the data it's not in the data today it was in the data >> the whole imports of a bunch of goods to avoid that increase in prices. maybe now we will find blowing through. >> how do you see it >> it's our job to respond to what the spls going to be. i don't think it's our job >> that's what the market does
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and what it's doing. play by the rules you are given. >> the market is reacting to the fact that it's not just a one and done it might be on the precipice of a rate television cutting cycle. keep in and additionally in prior years we argue for the need of fiscal policy. they got fiscal policy in 17 and were able to begin to tighten. you heard chairman powell talk a lot about the need for fiscal policy i don't know what that policy might be or look like, but if he is offering we need more policy, then i think we have to as investors and stewards have to say this is not a one and done
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>> i go to the four words that have been mentioned. don't fight the fed. >> that's right. it's true. paul tudor jones said it and we were lucky enough to be playing that and commenting on it when he said it >> is it that simple in buy stocks, buy tech, buy cyclicals and everything >> we have unusual activity and we have a lot of activity out in the september -- 325 calls for the spiders. the spiter is 300. they are betting that it goes through 325 in the not too distant future are we capped out? is it the highs? we have our buddy over at guggenheim this guy was bearish as heck
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>> he's on the program on monday on the halftime report and perfect timing >> he has flipped completely on to the bullish camp. i believe he said and i thought i heard 3500 for the s&p 500 >> based on what you were talking about. >> that's why i ask what i do in the manner in which i did. don't fight the fed. it's that simple why get complicated. if you talk to big time money managers, it comes down to that. that's what i hear from them don't fight the fed. i don't want to be short i don't want to be out that's what you hear >> it's not always that simple, but it's that simple for a bunch of reasons number one, you have a good base line u.s. economy. i don't think they are going to say it will get the economy back, but it will support where
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we are additionally you have the foreign european markets and the asian markets which are dicy europe is a complete mess. the u.s. is what's attracting capital and you have a 10-year or 2% which is in the a good alternative. with global easing, yes, it's that simple right now. you get a freebie on this earnings report this month >> you get this point. you get earnings starting with the banks. maybe they don't -- maybe everybody doesn't have to deliver expectations on the numbers because of what weiss just said. it's all about the fed and earnings have to be decent enough >> nobody is going to be surprised if the ceos are temp rate in terms of outlook we don't know because of the trade issues i think it's a freebie in terms of the report. >> low expectations and eps is down about 1.8%. there is going to be a profit
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margin squeeze to your point, there is upside potential leer particularly on the financials if you are going to get reports. they don't look as bad >> don't be surprised if you get note after note saying it looks too conservative com bee r lee said it looks conservative and earnings will be good enough to not drag it down >> i think earnings will be good enough you will see positive earnings for better than the 1.8% decline that's expected. i think that the fed could be enough to move the market forward. the question mark is really what what happens with trade? if it does esksilate and gets dicy, we saw the tweet from trump today while the market is ignoring that, if it does get
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dicy, we see these numbers come down today like the stock got hit on that. other stocks got i think you will see the individual probably industrial and tech stocks get. not the whole market >> maybe not yet s&p, let's call it 3,000 we went across that again. we have been holding there the dow is higher by about 200 amazon goes over $1 trillion fangs have been performing are those the trades you want to stay with? the amazons? >> those are the games i don't know that i shifted away from those names, but when you look at the names, fang names. expand it more and look at what microsoft has been doing and look at cisco. they have been performing. part ofs that that when we look at the companies and you look at the growth perspective and the guidance from the various names,
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by the way, i know when we are talking about the earnings and everybody is concerned about the numbers in the past or whatever, there were names out there that absolutely crushed it. they crush it on their revenues and you are seeing some of it in the semis as well. a lot of these names, there is a lot of different areas right now that you can put your money. financials is the biggest let. everybody knows that it has been that debt stone that when does that finally kick in it still hasn't. >> this is going to be the question for the next many weeks. whether the market is expecting too much from the fed. let's bring in mike at the new york stock exchange. maybe we got more clarity today if powell was as aggressive size some of sound and commentary would suggest. maybe part of that question gets an answer today. >> it showed no interest in
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calling the market's bluff they got to a point and he has not decided to fight the market. don't fight the fed. he is not fighting the market on this you have to keep in mind it's very, very unusual for the fed to be one and done that happened twice in the 60s we have to keep in mind that we are in a zone where it's judgment calls among human beings they are deciding that they would rather err on the side of getting easier sooner. did the market already figure it out and price for the position maybe we will get to that and the market is not taking what powell as said as a surprise
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unh is giving 100 points keep that in mind. it's a gentle boring rally which is how they act. they are boring on the way up usually. you have a hard time finding too much fault with it unless we get to the point when everyone feels like nothing can do g wrong. you raise a question of 50 basis points in a couple of weeks. >> i think there is a case of where bonds have traded. even if it's not about where it's about to end, at some point the fed is going back to zero. if at some point when it gets dicy, the fed is going to zero, you have as about o bias and yields are starting to pick up it also affects the psychology
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of people thinking that the fed is going to be more aggressive i feel like the game theory stuff will get distracted away from it. when you have people cutting it off, i don't know how to handicap that if i were to try to trade that outcome, but i think when it comes to the equity market, what's next you are pushing 18 times forward earnings estimates don't come up during this season. it will be a noisy season even if it's not a truly negative one. they will beat on aggregate and there is a lot of back and forth. the index gets trapped in the currents while the underlying stocks sort it out >> speaking of trapped, what do you think about the idea that we came back 20 basis points off of the lows basically for the
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10-year? when you come from 194, 195 to 210 and 211 and are pushing like that, don't you think that the market is kind of reassessing exactly how far it got to the downside and basically making it so it's not a by the rumor, sell the news >> for weeks you have been able to look at a lot of indicators that bonds are really overbought and rate of change has been extreme. you said that every single day for the last two weeks and you got the release and it's a sell the news event when it came to powell ratifying the view. you are resteepening the curve and you are at a moment where the stock market should be able to lift a little bit quite a bit from here perhaps. who knows. you get the steeper curve and the fed has to do less from keaching the market from being
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upside down. i think that looks like it could gather up a little bit of steam based on how tightly the yields had gotten compressed. corporate credit cards have been low. as pressuries go up, what does it mean for the multiple to get the pe higher if yields are going up not sure >> we're appreciate your patience and taking part in that conversation let's not forget we haven't had a blow off top. we have not had a traditional blow off top u forric feeling in the market >> i think it gets you to calm down and worry less about it
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>> if they go 3300 like some say, it will feel like we got there. >> that's what the news is over the last week. we need to focus on once we get earnings and how companies are on the ground. we somehow in some respects already there. >> i think we are there given where the markets are. i don't know why we can't get to a 22 or 24 multiple. >> that's kind of what i suggested. >> i don't think that's the blow off. we have been there before. euphoria happened after that as everybody thinks they are coming
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in we see the market in the nasdaq. we are not getting there and i would be worried if we did the base line economy. we can get to 22 or 24 >> i ask you then to go back to stock picking ways and i want to address kramer's new watch list if you want to call it that. the guy who coined the fangs has the watch stocks wal-mart, amazon, target, costco and home depot let's dissect this you want it first, pete? >> i think across the board probably like a lot of these names. from a valuation perspective, we get more nervous from the amazons of the world target remains inexpensivnexpene earnings don't really have it. they were up 15% year over year. there is earnings out there.
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the guidance was good and all of the numbers in terms of the growth across the metric was good i look at the company that was still trading of the names that stands out the only other name on there that is nerve racking and i look like it's a little bit inflated as well. they continue to execute and be able to battle the internet world that everybody is so fearful of and costco is doing a great job. >> how about depot housing markets have been suffering. you get a pick up. >> it is exploding to the upside and that's with ludicrous folks saying boycott this or that. they are doing almost everything right. and if you take away some of the same issues that lindsey mentioned and their chairman was talking about as far as how china and imports impacted them, they were able to pass it on,
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but it's cutting into the margins. if this one, if you get past a trade deal, this one is 15% higher very quickly. home depot >> i'm not sure it matters what i'm going to say in any way. the market -- i opened myself up >> he knew it. >> i didn't know that some people are able to interpret appropriately. >> you knew i was not going to lay off. >> it's a rising tide. it's lifting the ships it doesn't matter what the fundamentals are if they are a leading participant, they are going to rise. with passive funds owning more than 50% of the large cap stocks, your value in generating out is going have to come from other stocks home depot is not up because of the big news and neither is
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wal-mart it's up there because it's a leading participator wal-mart is more than 50% owned by them. >> new 52-week high again today. 115.72 that's a two-week high this stock has been on a run his credit has been talking about it a lot it has been a fundamental case to make. a technical break out that the stock has been witnessing. it has been two or three years in the making that the stock had the turn arounds the five consumer names and measuring the strength of the consumer you look at home depot, they benefitted and not so much about new home purchases, but the ability that is powering the consumers. you are going to have to go for
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a shift. the cycles help you. we didn't think we were going to see. poor. >> he did change his name to cornell. that's a different story i wanted to be more exposed to the consumer that's it. let's face it. going over 2,000 i think is psychological. i'm not so sure. >> the news in the cosmetics >> let's do this the s&p is right at 3,000. dow crossing 27,000 for the first time ever today. we will take a quick break and talk about another stock that
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has been powering this market higher our call of the day is next. back after this. >> amazon's prime day is next week our data partners have shown since 2015 when bought a week before and sold on prime day, the stock performs well. up an average of 4.83% for more go to cnbc.com/upon kensho that created the stock exchange. just the right elements coming together. it started when scores more people came together, just down the street and traded bonds that helped pay for the revolution, and the nation it created. it started in an office on the corner where the right people witnessed the telegraph and brought information and humanity together forever. it started with the markets, bringing together steel and buildings and silicon and medicine and rockets. we believe the possibilities of life and investing are greater
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welcome back microsoft hitting a new all time high today on the heels of a a bullish call they initiated coverage and outperform the ratings. >> and by the way, we want to say windows is dead. that continues to grow as well across the board, five years ago when he took over this spot as the ceo had a plan in place. that plan was to transition to where it is now. can it continue to the upside,
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but it's getting a little bit loftier in terms of the pe do i own it? yep. do i have call spreads i do when i look at the stock, at some point in time, i love the growth, but i think they have to start making better headway in terms of imploding what amazon has owning the space right now they own the cloud space microsoft is a deep distant second if they can get that market share back, absolutely, the stock can go higher. they have to do that >> everybody owns options or bullish options in here or the stock. >> i own the stock and pete said here's what i think. this company is going continue to do well, but they have to perform. if they don't, there is no safety net here. i recently bought a new ipad when you go to by a microsoft product because apple doesn't
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have products like word, the licenses have gotten more expensive. they are charging more you have to buy word power point. microsoft and apple doesn't compete with the products. you used to be able to get multiple licenses and now they charge skmoer more ibm's acquisition is not going to help them compete they are still going to be open, right? still open source. you have the same two winners. amazon and microsoft and google is coming on. >> isn't ibm coming off the base that doesn't need that much? why do you have to win is it all about win something. >> it may be important i don't think they are capable of winning with current management right now >> i like what they said about early days for the cloud clearly even though joe which was the only one on the desk that can pronounce azure as far
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as how they're doing that. i think it's all about linked in for my mind and my money from here rather than just focusing completely on the cloud. the note was almost exclusively on i like the linked in part of this an awful lot. >> they threw out $100 billion revenue by fiscal year 2025. the stock is something you have to own >> oh, yeah. >> have to own it anyway it's the market leading software cloud producer that's very well run. >> all right well, u.s. steel shares have lost more than 60% of their value over the past year but bullish options traders are betting on a short-term bounce jon and pete have unusual activity doc, you go first. >> stock about $13.50 this morning. scott, $13.50. they started buying upside calls. 14 strike. not a big reach. but it's a short period of time. it's basically a two-week out option because they're buying
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julys. i bought these options trading for 22 cents they've almost doubled already and i think they'll double or triple with any kind of up side move here. so i'm in those. and again, that's a short-term trade. second one, car. huge volume in this one. i think 21,000 august 41 calls went off like that one an awful lot as well gives me more time to be in that trade and perhaps to have the stock climb and be able to sell a higher strike against the calls that i own, which i will probably own for about a month >> okay. pete >> for the second time in the last couple of weeks, allied financial. so something is going on there something is sniffing out something. we see a huge buyer of 15,000 of the august 33 calls. stock trading underneath 32 at the time very large trade there about 50 cents, 55 cents is what they were trading in these options. i'm already there. i own options in there i didn't have to add today it gave me more confidence to hold on to those calls for longer and see how this plays
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out. i'm already in august as well from the previous buying we'd seen micron hit yesterday and hit again today. very aggressively once again and they're going for the 45 strike calls in micron and going in august. so aggressively buying yesterday. aggressively buying today. are the chips under fire i think they are because we not only had buying yesterday in micron we had amd buying, western digital buying across the board a trifecta of looking for up side over the next three to four weeks not necessarily today. three to four weeks is their upicide. they're positioning for the semis to make a move >> i went back to the smash, smh. the way it plays ourkts there's been a lot of up front buying. so they should have big quarters and advance of tariffs and more tariffs and huawei and what they'd say about the future is not really going to matter so the next quarter, the current quarter we're in should also be good so i think those continue to move higher with the market moving higher. >> let's talk about another market, natural gas. futures rallying as tropical
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storm barry expected to make landfall this weekend. there's the map. there's futures now. hey, seema >> the futures climbing today and now up 7% in the last week let's bring in jim and anthony joining me from the cme. anthony, what do you make of this move in nat gas >> certainly the storm is a big part of it, but 90-degree days over the next three weeks is increasing demand for natural gas, and we haven't seen that in a couple years about 5% below supplies this time versus last year. and i think you -- as long as we stay above the 245.20 area, a 50-day moving average, we'll trade higher because demand has exploded >> consumers will be watching this closely jim, what levels are you looking at >> i look at it absolutely opposite from a technical standpoint this has been a nice move but hasn't broken out of the down trend going on i think it would have to go above 260 to have any confidence
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if it trades below 240 then it heads back to 210 because supply is still the issue tune in to our digital show 1:00 p.m. eastern, futures now.cnbc.com meghan shue will reveal what has her worried about the market and wells fargo's michael schumacher halftime guys give us their final trade after this break this is my headquarters. this is where i trade and manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities - trade confirmed - and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you. is where people first gathered to form the stock exchangeee,
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this group of stocks is flashing a serious warning sign. we explain what it is and what it means read pippa's story now, trading nation.cnbc.com. back on the halftime report. time to answer some of your questions. peerkts from david in ohio kinder morgan, what do you think? >> i own the stock and have for a while. >> i love the discipline they represented when they cut their dividend now slowly dividend yield is just under 5%, and near 52-week highs. richard kinder continues to buy his own stock because of that. i feel very, very comfortable holding on to this stock >> from jim in seattle, keysight best play for 5g >> one of them you have to focus on the enterprise component of 5g had a recent high july 4th with 94 bucks a quality name a mid cap. steven mentioned before the ownership of active on large
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cap, mid cap you're only around 20%. go back to 1995. mid cap is actually outper formed small and charge. so i like that component of it and this is the way i'd play 5g. >> doc from john in connecticut. disney good question here overvalued or still a buy? >> still a buy and i think netflix isn't going to be tossed aside i think disney and netflix will be the two winners and disney, obviously, is coming up from a zero base up towards disney. but i think -- i mean up towards netflix, but barry diller said the same thing that's the way i think this plays out. netflix is still going to be the king but disney will be number two. >> steve weis for you from robert in cambridge, united kingdom. what's wrong with the kiss downtown brokers schwab and etrade i hold both. should i dump them or stay with them >> it's very simple what's wrong with them. interest rates so they need to make money off
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rates. bless you. >> you okay? >> that was him. >> that was jon. >> i know we look alike, but -- >> it's difficult to tell them apart, but when they sneeze -- >> i was writing >> schwab's exceptionally well run. etrade, i haven't looked at that carefully. i don't know why you'd want to own etrade when you can own schwab do i think there's a lot of down side no but i don't think there's upside near term either final trades >> one oak oke, natural gas play. >> thought you were talking about that place in the city hanging out. one oak. been there >> hey, man, no. all is good. i'm going to give you a final trade of micron. not only just talk about it unusual. they bought more calls just now. micron technology. >> doc >> enterprise products, epd. bought that today during the show >> xpi biotech index. drug stocks are down no reason for it to be based upon the news. it's an opportunity to get in
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again. >> let's show you the markets here in the last 15 seconds or so that we have for you today. the s&p 500 is right at 3,000. the dow has crossed above 27,000 today. for the first time ever. the fed chairman testifying on capitol hill today setting the table once again for a rate cut later this month "the exchange" picks up that story right now. >> thank you, scott. hi, everybody. here's what's ahead. a record-breaking rally. the dow above 27,000 for the first time fed chair jay powell has affirmed the hopes for a rate cut even as inflation ticks up today. the cpi report we'll dive in to all of that plus, france is taxing america's tech giants. the white house is about to hold a summit to air their social media grievances and tech hearings loom next week on the hill one trader says with all this happening, it's time to dump faang. and who has the fastest growing music streaming service? the answer may surprise u.

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