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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 10, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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weaker, down about 0.3%. we will see if that continues. >> everybody is easing, too. >> everyone else is easing so you have a temporary reprieve, exactly, from a stronger dollar of late but only slightly. that does it for today's show. thank you for watching. >> have a good evening "fast money" begins right now. ♪ "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's time square i'm melissa leer. pete najarian, guy adami and steve weiss on the desk. the dean of evaluation will be here to tell you where to find value in the market. plus, tell lse tesla soaring asd e-mails has people running to stocks it was powell-palooza as the chairman gave wall street what it wanted, the dow soaring 300 points the s&p 500 doing the same, breaking through 3,000 five years after hitting 2,000. the nasdaq closing at a record
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high for more on what powell said and what we learned from today's fed minutes, senior economics report steve liesman is here. >> in the house. >> onset in the house >> how am i supposed to cover the federal reserve when you put up a graphic like powell-palo oo, za >> what is wrong with that it captures the sentiment ♪ celebrate good times >> i was doing that. if you goad them in the control room, they will take the bait every time >> yes. >> so i think it was powell-palooza is not a bad way to characterize it it had every opportunity to push back on the market being darn sure there was a rate cut. instead of pushing them back he said, come on, we are going more in terms of -- i don't mean more in terms of more rate cuts, but you can be more sure he emphasized the negatives and down played the positives. >> what i thought was interest ingalls ing is that the markets threw
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into doubt the 50 basis cut later this month once we got the job reports, but powell said to have a hot jobs market we need heat he said tothe markets, look through the strong number. that's the message i got. >> he was as dovish about the job market as i have ever heard him and maybe as dovish as any fed chairman i remember. 3.7% unemployment rate, 3.1% wage gains, all of this stalk about trouble funding workers, and i think the exact quote was, "if something is hot there has to be heat." he didn't -- he doesn't see the heat -- >> is he talking about inflation, the lack thereof? >> the heat would be inflation i think in the first order would be wage growth, strong wage growth he makes a point, by the way, that janet yellen made as well which is wage growth that has inflation plus productivity is not inflationary let's -- let's do the math 2% inflation and call it 1.5% or 2% productivity growth means you could grow wages at 4% and a fed official or chairman should not
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be concerned about the inflationary potential of that >> so if he's not concerned about inflation right now and you have trade concerns on his mind and global growth is weakening -- >> right. >> -- you sound like a skeptic i don't think he should be cutting rates either, but he made the case where it is probably warranted. >> so the first participate of your comment to me you told me the reason why he's okay doing this. >> impolite to point. >> there's very little downside risk, right? you have the low inflation, and a quarter point to the down side i don't think is a big deal. but i want to just -- ask me the question, how dovish was powell? >> how dovish was powell >> you guys are great. >> was it a powell-palooza >> listen to this question from congressman gonzalez when the congressman asked him, are you going to lower rates listen >> would it be fair to characterize based on what we're seeing on those two factors specifically that a strong case could be made for lowering
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>> so, yes, as i mentioned we think that unsercht aroucertaind trade policy and global growth -- it is not all trade policy, but there's growth around the world and particularly around manufacturing and investment in trade. so that uncertainty we think is weighing on the domestic economy. >> so i think he said "yes" to lowering rates i'm not skeptical. i just would think having covered fed chair folks for a long time, he would claw back a little bit of flexibility, want to put a little doubt in the market he was like, you know, full bore ahead. >> i'm not an economist. i'm not that smart i have said it a million times -- >> i just play one on tv. >> and you do a good job but i will say this, the greatest economy in the history of mankind why -- slowdown to me is a natural part of the cycle. why are central banks globally, specifically our fred, so frightened of one?
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>> i would not make this a long answer, but i will go back and tell you this. there is always a feeling about central banks. they can't pick their unemployment rate, but they can pick their inflation rate. it was the one thing the central banks thought they could do, and we are finding out they can't. what's going on now is inflation around the world is not hitting the target you should be able as a central banker to put enough money out there in the economy to create inflation, but there are massive forces going on that appear to be very difficult for them to do that so i think if i had to make a list of stuff that why are they cutting, it would be continuously not hitting their inflation rate, it would be the global growth problem, and probably trade up there as well. there was an interesting aspect to this testimony by powell which was a clarion call to president trump to get this trade stuff out of the way he kept coming back to the uncertainty created by trade >> all right steve, thank you >> my pleasure
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this was great. >> steve leishman. it was great, this palooza can you jump on this federal ray or are the gains priced in >> i think there's upside. i think people are wanting reasons to be in this market and they continue to find different reasons. once again, if the fed is going to do what they're going to do and people are searching for rates and everything else, i think we will continue to see people pile in towards the market does it mean it is the right thing? i'm not so sure about that, but i think the reaction will be that people will be buying into the idea that this market can go higher i think you and i were down there earlier, i think scott meyer was talking about the idea that, hey, 3500 is not that far out of the question at this point in time. he said 3,500. we're talking about 3,000 today. >> wow. >> are we going to see those kind of numbers? i don't know that we'll get that high, mel, but it feels like people are willing to jump into the market and have that exposure. >> tim. >> if you think about the move today, it gives you reason to think it could go higher amazon is there, it is at all-time highs if you think about the qqqs,
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they outperformed. if you think about the things that underperformed, it was transports, industrials, things that have not been performing. when you tell me we have a market, i will steal pete's vix thunder, if it plunges, which is one of the most important things you could get on a day like today which the fed put is back, everything gives you reasonable growth at a reasonable price, it is something that is going to continue to move >> the volatility that was just brought up, we are already at the low he end we are at the lower end of volatility and we went further we got into the 12s on the lows today, in upper 12s but still in the 12s. >> you said a lot of people are pounding for the market, people want a reason to be short in the market they have plenty of reasons to be short, just not working. >> right. >> i think it will add to the upside potential i think we break above 3,000 incredibly. >> what is staggering when you read through the testimony, you hear powell, he is outlining all of the reasons why the economy
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is on a threat maybe that's a little dramatic >> but the deficit. >> the debt ceiling. >> brexit. >> all of these worries, he is just ticking off, check, check, check, and yet here we are market is to 3,500 all of a sudden, it is crazy. >> but the vix is closing basically at 13, to your point levels that have typically been warning signs. you can't deny the fact s&p goes up effectively every day i'm one of these people that tries to fight against it unsuccessfully, but i point out things that continue to be warning signs. look, gold continues to move to the upside yes, a week off last week. big move today small caps do not participate in this rally i don't know what it means, but i think if the rally was broad based you would have them there. transports had a pretty miserable day today as well. the banks in europe, all of a sudden magically get better on the back of this i don't think so with all of that said, the market is telling the piece point and i think the piece point to tim's point wants to go higher the warning signs will matter. i thought they mattered 150 s&p
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handles ago. >> that's the problem. >> they don't. >> that's the problem. shorts got hurt, and now they have every reason to be short yet again, but the problem is every time you lay a short out there you have to scramble to cover. the markets been up hundreds of handles in your case. >> financials, didn't catch a bit today. >> we had a ten-year auction today. tough day for a ten-year aukts with powell out there and european bond yields move higher we saw the ten year move higher. i think the banks in the short run digested the worst of the yields flattening. if you look at the financials since june when we had the rally, they're underperforming in the market slightly but not a disaster we have talked about their ability to give capital back to investors. i think the worst of the yields flattening are probably behind us for now they're cutting rates, steepening the yield curve. >> we thought consumer staples would do well, a top-performing sector in the s&p 500. how do you read that >> on many of the different names, i think you still -- i
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don't necessarily always agree with it, but you still see people reaching for some kind of yield, right i mean you look at a lot of these various names moving to the upside, they have great yields so people are still looking for that, so there's a -- i hate the word defensive, but there's a defensive stance by some. >> yes. >> and then there's the aggressive side going after the tech names they think aren't done tim mentioned amazon, i would say netflix, amazon, apple people are still coming for those names, and the semis today were really active they had a nice day once again you look at micron, you look at some of the names moving to the upside, amd, another strong day. all right. the s&p may have hit 3,000 today, but the next guest says don't get used to the record highs. let's bring in scott rand, senior equity strategist at wells fargo. great to have you with us. >> hi, melissa. >> the market got what it wanted. >> it did. >> why wouldn't there be upside here >> you know, for us -- and i think, you know, we could be in the very early stages of some chasing here typically when you are later in the cycle, you know, chasing
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once it kicks in takes you to the high in the intermediate term, we have done the last couple of months -- i talked to you guys the last time i was on the show was, you know, we lightened up we have been leaning hard toward stocks for years we backed up, we took a little money off the table. we put a little money in some short-term bonds, at least temporarily we're willing to give up a little upside here but for us, you know, we think there's going to be a trade deal we think it is pretty far out into the future probably we think we will see some negative trade headlines here in coming months. so we're not convinced that, you know, it is up, up and away, but certainly the action, the technicals, we're gettinga little bit of chasing here certainly it wouldn't surprise us if the market moved a little bit higher. >> what do you think is the -- is the down side catalyst? what is that major catalyst for the down side? >> well, i think it is gloenl growth and trade you got 40% of the s&p revenues
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coming from outside the country. you know, our concern has been -- has been global growth the trade frictions certainly play into that right now it seems to us that, you know, we have a sector lean on in other words we're not completely neutral we're in it. we like consumer discretionary and industrials and technology, financials, those kinds of things, but, you know, in the near term it seems like good trade news, a bunch of it is surprised into the market -- not all of it, but enough of it. it seems right now you get some trade headlines and the market will trade down today. we have the 200-day moving average, a couple of hundred points in the s&p below here so you have to give your position a little time to breathe here because certainly we could trade down on negative trade headlines and still be in an up trend. >> scott, it is tim. we are talking a lot of top down give me the bottom up.
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we have earnings starting next week you said you have a sector lean, a little about the consumer names. what do you expect some major upside in a world where nobody is expecting guys to be good >> i don't think it will be, tim, because none of these companies -- especially the ones reliant upon trade and global growth, you know, these guys are not going to go out on a limb and say, hey, everything is great. they're going to be cautious i think the last time i looked, the consensus was down 2%, 3%, something like that, year over year we are at flat, which i mean obviously that's a poor result too. but i think really the market -- the market knows first quarter earnings were going to be lousy. they know second quarter earnings are going to be lousy really, i think when we look ahead it is these macro issues you know, we know the fed is not going to tighten rates, so the fed to some extent is on our side at least. but it is this global growth story, and it is this trade friction story which, let's face it, you know, we've had a lot of back and forth in trade
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negotiations we could certainly see some negatives before the positives, and right now for us, you know, after this big run -- i mean we're up 27% from the christmas eve low. we thought taking a few chips off the table was probably a little prudent. >> scott, brate great to speak you. scott wren, wells fargo. >> thanks, guys. pete, i toss it back to you. to scott's point, can the fed outweigh the impact of trade on s&p 500 earnings >> oh, boy you know, it is a great question i don't know that i have the answer. >> isn't that the crux, right, of everything, of a call to 3,500 -- >> yes that wasn't my call, by the way. >> but to believe the markets go higher -- >> right well, i would say this it was interesting because when you really go through the testimony today, how many times did he use the word "uncertainty?" >> more than 20. >> right so because of that i still think that's one of the biggest factors that are there now, is it a trading market? it continues to be a trading market, i think it has been a
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great trading market matter of fact, some of the stuff i was putting on yesterday i was taking off today that's how actively fast things are moving today we have great trading environment today right now. investing wise i think it is more difficult because some of necessary names are pushing to the upside and they do seem like the valuations are getting a little bit stretched. >> but since she brought up trade, it is important you know the president -- i'm not saying he is watching right now. >> he may be. >> we know he watches the show. >> exactly. >> if he's watching, we want to say hi with that said, he has a dovish fed in his back pocket theoretically. i think in his mind he says he has ammunition. >> and leeway, too. >> -- to play hardball with the chinese in terms of the trade. i actually thinks it works to the opposite to get a trade deal done it actually works to the detriment of a deal, which at a certain point -- back to scott's point -- is probably negative. >> you know, we got these comments about huawei two nights ago which were on, you know, the eve of powell coming in and giving some more gas to the fire so i agree with you, guy
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i do think this is a case where there's a delicate balancing act between your political constituency fighting china right now is politically popular, it is bipartisan to that extent showing -- going into a season that you have actually stood up to a guy that people think globally is the biggest issue for the country is very important that's not going to let up. >> coming up, with stocks hitting record highs the dean of valuation is here to tell you where to find value in this market plus, tesla shares revving up as an internal e-mail from the company sent e-mails soaring we will tell you what was found to have investors excited. netflix is losing "friends" and "the office" as rivals strike back. live from mesqretis ua in new york city, much more "fast york city, much more "fast money" right after this.
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so you save hundreds of dollars a year on your wireless bill. xfinity mobile has the best network. best devices. best value. simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today. welcome back to "fast money" shares of tesla spark today as a leaked e-mail from ceo elon musk got the street excited for the details let's head to phil lebeau in chicago hey, phil. >> reporter: we are actually in atlanta. we will talk more about that, why we're down here. but the story about tesla can be
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told from anywhere the leaked e-mail was sent last night from the president of tesla, and while it didn't have any details it had a couple of important point in there that the tesla bulls definitely grabbed on to. first of all, he said in terms of production they are preparing for an increase in production. he didn't give a time frame. he didn't give any numbers in terms of how much production would go up, but he also said that the china plant, the one that's being built in shanghai, they are making progress there, rapid progress remember, they've already said by the end of the year they expect to begin production there. so if you're a tesla bull, you look at this leaked e-mail and say, fantastic news. one reason why the stock moved higher today but it has us thinking, we have seen a number of leaked e-mails, ten going back to the end of march. what happens to the tesla stock performance the day after those e-mails come out or the morning, you know, if it is leaked in the morning, what happens that day we're not going to show you all ten but we pointed out a few of them here. let's start first off, april 19th
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there was an e-mail that came out, it was not terribly significant. no big catalyst within it. there were no details. stock was only up, what, 2.29%, but two e-mails stand up one of them being on may 17th, elon musk sent out an e-mail saying that they need hard-core cost cutting or they're going to run out of money in ten months stock dropped more than 7% less than a week later he came back and said, look, we have a chance to have record deliveries in the second quarter, but by then the trajectory was going on tesla shares and it could not stop it from sliding another 6%. then there was another e-mail at the end of june, basically saying things are going well, improving. but, again, no details stock didn't really react. today the stock was up, what, 3.85%. you take a look at shares intraday, and if you look at the stock over the last three months, melissa, we looked at the average volume only twice the day after one of these leaked e-mails did the volume exceed the daily average, that was on may 17th as well as
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may 22nd ot wise, ye otherwise the stock has moved a little bit, maybe up or down a percent, but not as dramatic a swaying as people might expect. >> so a conspiracy theer ips might think that the so-k5u8d leaked e-mails were leaked on purpose because elon musk's hands are tied when it comes to tweeting as he did before. >> right. >> based on your research of the e-mails, it doesn't appear that that would be the case >> it is not getting a huge reaction. >> yes. >> basically it comes down to this, melissa. our data team at cnbc did a great job pulling all of these numbers and it comes down to this, if the e-mail has something substantial either in terms of numbers or in terms of something that an investor can grab on to, like elon musk saying, look, we're going to run out of money in ten months, these hard core cost cuts are needed, that moves the stock when it is something like, "we're doing a great job, have a
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chance for a great quarter, things are going well," doesn't really move the stock. might make people feel better but doesn't move the stock as mel. >> phil, thanks. phil lebeau in atlanta, ahead of delta's earnings and his interview with the ceo tomorrow morning on "squawk box" at 7:00 a.m. thank you, phil. what do you make of the whole thing? >> what i make out of everything, jeffrey had a note out, said demand in china is up 40% year over year that's encouraging i don't know if it is real or not but that's the numbers reported what do i make of the whole thing? i think we did a good job towards the bottom part, pointing out an entry stock on the one side good job i thought you needed to take profits at 225 that might still be right, but you look at it for the first time in a while it seems to have broken out above a trend line. i still think there's significant down side risk here, but then you look at it today on the back of this news, you wonder is it going to make the next run i sort of favor the down side, but you have to sort of be encouraged if you are bullish with your stock. >> where are you on your
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conviction meter >> my conviction hasn't changed. you have to talk about good news when it comes out. the second quarter deliveries were good news, they were able to pull a lot forward. the fact that it sound like there's momentum there, still below annualizing to 360 to 400. it is difficult to listen to anything the company says, two words, funding secure. you know all you need to know in all that is going on. >> a shortage of 31%, you have 35% in 26 days tough for a short, but i'm still on the short camp. >> on june 4th, stock is trading 180. they bought 10,000 at the august 2, '50 call look at the calls with the stock trading at 230 on july 8th, they rolled up to the august 2, '60 call i continue to hold on to the call i'm in the july calls, haven't rolled to august yet but for now -- i'm not long stock but certainly long these calls. i like what i'm seeing right now. continue to look for upside on tesla. >> for more on ses law's next move head to i'm melissa lee. here is what else is coming up on "fast money." >> it is wonderful to be the
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center of attention. >> enjoy it, michael scott, because netflix is about to lose both "the office" and "friends" as the streaming wars heat up. we will tell you what it means plus -- >> libra races serious concerns regarding privacy, money laundering and financial stability. >> don't worry, zucker berpg, we have some advice for you about getting into the crypto craze. much more "fast money" right after this
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welcome back to "fast money" five years ago the s&p 500 closed above 2,000 for the first time, and now it has finally reached its next milestone, the long-awaited 3,000 level what exactly got us here bob pisani is at there to break
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it down for us hi, bob. >> i wish it was a broader rally but it is not. what a difference five years make the s&p has moved 50%, less than five years it was august 26, 2014,, but the market is very different than it was in 2014. investors have played favorites in a big way big tech and faang dominate the winners. these have become enormously influential. also influential, semi conductors, dominant, big gains, nvidia, amd, broadcom. there's a broader trend in general. the biggest companies keep getting bigger, particularly the tech-theme companies visa and mastercard, that's the fintech base, cisco as well. there are a few outliers like united health and home depot that have been big out performers that are not tech, but not many have moved the charts
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most consumer names, look at this, they're in the middle of the pack remember the s&p is up 50% pfizer, walmart, proctor gamble, coke is towards the bottom, only up 25% you see there not a lot of out performance here there's a few exceptions j.p. morgan and bank of america outperformed a little bit, but most of the banks have been notable underperformers. then there's the outright losers and two big groups dominated from 2,000 to 3,000 on the down side first, energy stocks no surprise. remember, oil was 100 bucks five years ago. it is $60 today even with the rally. the other big losing sector are retailers like macy's. so what does it mean that a handful of big cap tech stocks have come to completely dominate the stock market to me it means technology is where the growth is. that's the story growth is really hard to find around the world, so everybody pays up anything they can for growth wherever they can find it melissa, i wish the rally was broader, but that's the facts. back to you. >> all right
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bob, thank you bob pisani, a disappointed bob pisani when it comes to the rally. does it disappoint you >> no, because i think we all no -- first of all, a tech company looks different than a tech company used to look like amazon is a retail company but a tech company you have to buy these four to six numbers or even eight names he discusses here. energy has done nothing, it is zero but it doesn't mean youcan't make money or lose money day-to-day in that space it is very volatile. >> pete? >> i agree amazon is one of the names i missed out on, and i think i missed out because i looked at it as more retail, ecommerce that's not what they are i have been fooling myself too long it is a cloud company when it comes down to it because of it, yes, they're tech along with microsoft and a lot of the names i like and follow and own those names, i still think there's upside i think it is still too cheap, in facebook, in apple, in some of the other names i think there's plenty of upside because of the vertical. >> we have gone over the big winners but where can you find
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value with stocks hitting more records. let's bring in the dean of valuation himself, finance professor at nyu stern school of business professor, great to have you with us. welcome back. >> good to be here. >> given interest rates are so low, does a fed cut of 25 basis points, does it factor into your view of how the market is valued >> i think the fed is strange to me because i think that we've gone through waves of the fed watching for the last decade in looking back, i think it is more smoke than any real effect. i think ultimately this is going to be about growth and earnings. i think next -- the earnings report is coming out next week, they're going to matter more than what the fed actually does. in the short term the fed might have some effect, but if those earnings don't come in then i don't think the fed can do much to keep the market sustained. >> we were just talking about the big winners in this month from 2k to 3k in the s&p 500, and technology hand down is a
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big winner a couple of names that you bought recently are in tech knowledge, and some would say have very high valuations. can you walk us through, for instance, zlau whitesla which yt four weeks ago around 180 at this point >> i think value cannot come from looking at existing earnings it has to come from look imat future growth as well. at the right price i would buy some of the high-growth companies. i mean my problem with amazon is not that it is not a great company. i think it is an amazing company. the question whether you can pay the price you pay for amazon right now and get value from the company. so i think the way to look at the tech companies is not to think in terms of pe ratios or price-to-book ratios, but to look at what kind of value they can deliver given future growth, and to watch for the price at which they can become bargains i think that even though they might look highly priced, they can still be cheap on a value basis if you can get them at the right price. >> hey, professor -- >> i think the key is to be patient and have the right
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timing. >> it is tim seymour, proffersor as you look around the world for value, u.s. in a heavy dominated fed environment seems to have outperform nerve if the tre if the trend continues u.s. is going higher. >> european companies look cheap but deserve to be cheap. if you look at european companies, many of these companies are walking dead companies. they're companies in sectors with very little growth, where there's not much capacity to create value so i think the u.s. is still where the value is going to come from, even though it might look expensive on a pe basis. i mean i look at asia, and asia is actually much more expensive than the u.s. in terms of what you're paying for even earnings and growth so i would pick, you know, u.s. companies over indian or chinese companies right now in terms of a purely value basis. >> i want to ask you about boeing, professor, and how you value boeing when so much of its problems are something that can't be put in a model, the 737
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max woes. >> i think that ultimately though you have to face the reality there are only two companies in this space, boeing and airbus neither is going any place so you will have the pain of something like the 737 max play out with both of these companies. so i think if you want to hold boeing you have to accept the fact in the near term you're going to get some pain, but it might be a company that ultimately will be able to get around that pain and deliver the return so i know i would not be worried about investing in boeing long term, but i would be worried about trading boeing short term. >> are you invested in boeing right now? >> yes. >> okay. professor, thank you so much for your time. we appreciate it >> thank you >> of nyu school of business do you like any of the professors picks which includes nvidia which he bought at -- >> i think you have to like nvidia obviously they were hit with that brush of the bitcoin production cycle, so that is kind of waned off a bit. i think if you want to be there with the connected homes, the connected car, the connected office spaces, i think you have
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to be there. but i do also believe the fed has a bunch of bullets left. earnings aren't going to matter for quite sometime and when the fed is out of bullets, guess what they can do again qe after they reverse qt you would be selilly to short ts market right now maybe it is 3,500. >> amd, we have talked about it for a while, but it is stock that basically doubled since the beginning of the year. it had a huge run. i mention it because it is up against levels we last saw in september of 2018. so i think the amd run can continue on to be clear. we also should be aware we could potentially have a major top here so to take some money off the table in amd now makes some sense to me. >> when you say qe, you are meaning an easing cycle? >> no, i'm saying -- >> or further measures like in financial crisis >> i heard him today when he was talking to a congress woman when she said, what happens during the next downturn. >> okay. >> of the economy, what would you be willing to do when you're out of bullets he said, we can still use the
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balance sheet when we're out of bullets. >> okay, look, a couple of things winding in earlier to, bob pisani talked about how the companies outperformed, software over hardware clearly will continue to work in this environment. i would argue europe with all of the walking dead companies -- one of the reasons europe underperformed massively is there are no tech plays in europe if you buy the deck, you are buying industrial companies, you are buying bank, nothing high growth that's weighting the indices down structurally. it is never going to change. still ahead, tipping the libra scale, bitcoin soaring 30% since zuckerberg announced their own cryptocurrency we will bring you comments net flex losing legacy swsho "friends" and "the office" from the line-up. one top analyst says it could mean big trouble for the streaming giant. those details when "fast money" returns. ylan
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welcome back to "fast money" shares in netflix hanging in there despite a warninged to investors after the streaming service lost "friends" and "the office." as more streaming services launch, netflix is going to
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continue to lose their high quality content making success of their own content important the note pointed out that "friends" and "the office" accounted for 25% of streaming hours in 2019. so as netflix's biggest rival strikes back, can it keep the momentum going, keith? >> i think they can because that mode is that big this is not something they haven't been focused on for a long time. they've focused on content, not just here but internationally. we talked about the international expansion they've gone through, that has taken over they've done an unbelievable job there. i think as it gets bigger, mel, it makes it that much more difficult. there will be content they're going to lose obviously over time. we know disney and everyone else is moving around and shifting thingsaround, but netflix has done a great job i talked to my friend that live in hollywood who talked about, hey, look, we love working to netflix, for amazon, for these various, so the competition is there. but if they can develop that content at netflix, that's going to be the winner for them.
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>> i mean the issue here is whether or not the stars will actually turn away from the service because it is all about subscriber numbers at the end of the day, right especially in the u.s. where it is a mature market if there isn't a new season of "orange is the new black" out or "stranger things" right now i might switch to another streaming service because you don't have "the office" or "friends" to sort of put on default to fill my time with. >> as a guy that's not been bullish on netflix and doesn't understand the valuation, i will say it is not a crisis moment for netflix. it was 1996 when they lost "friends." think about when disney said they would take all of the content by 2019, 2020, it was a big moment to, a moment to test where netflix was a content play or a portal. while i am critical of -- i think it is dubious to say they can compete in content with the biggest players in the word. they so far seem to be. >> they're just going to hold a basket full of these -- >> how many services can you -- >> well, think about it.
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if you are spending "x" on your cable per month, what are you spending on cable? i spend an egregious amount on cable because i have four kids, so it is 300 bucks on cable. the average person probably plays 80 to 100 bucks on cable but they haven't cut the cord on cable. once they cut the cable, you will have -- >> so the real losers are the cable companies? >> yes >> as long as you get "sonny and cher" reuniversitiruns, you are >> first of all, it was a great show "redd foxx show" outstanding >> redd fox? >> he had his own show. >> he did? >> yes i think net flex goes higher they report on july 17th they had so many bullets shot. i think it makes a push to 411, the high we saw in july 2008. >> did you see "hogan's heroes?"
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>> i did. >> i love it. >> giving mark zuckerberg advice on how they're navigating the crypto craze oil jumping today, on the longest winning streak since february we will tell you how to play the move much more "fast money" right after this (soft music)
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libra raises many serious concerns regarding privacy, mon aye laundering, consumer protection and financial stability. these are concerns that should be thoroughly and publicly addressed before proceeding. that's why at the fed we've set up a working group to focus on this set of issues we are coordinating with our colleagues in the government, in the united states, via the regulatory agencies and treasury we are coordinating with central banks and governments around the world to look into this. that was fed chair powell on capitol hill earlier today, speaking out on facebook's new libra coin, offering as concerns surrounding the regulation of the cryptocurrency heat up sat down with how the libra coin could shake up the rest of the market seema mody joins us onset. >> reporter: as we know the wink will boss twins sued mark zuckerberg claiming he stole their idea for facebook in the
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early 2000s. while speaking with the two last night, they said they're optimistic about the libra and i.t. impact on the broader energy. >> very positive for crypto. a company with the stature of facebook actually talking about crypto demiystifies the word. it makes people feel comfortable. our prediction is every social company will have a cryptocurrency in the next two years. >> i asked the winklevosses what advice they would only zuckerberg and his team as they prepare to face off with regulators on capitol hill >> work with regulators, talk with them. we definitely went through the front door and we tried to educate the regulators and help shape the regulation in a thoughtful manner. if you get the regulation wrong it can stifle innovation, but the right regulation allows innovation to flourish we think we have achieved that
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right balance with it. so the healthiest markets in the world are thoughtfully regulated. so we're fans of thoughtful regulation >> but achieving that level of trust is not easy, and that's why, melissa, libra's success is not guaranteed. >> what do they think of the actual coin? because it is simply backed by a set of currencies, not a true cryptocurrency as bitcoin is >> it is interesting they launched their own stable coin, gemini dollar, in 2018 backed by the u.s. dollar. so it is tied to the u.s. dollar versus libra which is tied a number of currencies including the colldollar and the euro. they think it has a way to run giving facebook's 2 billion active users. >> seema mody with the latest on that so we saw bitcoin -- i looked at you. >> why i'm an easy one to look at, easy on the eyes. >> bitcoin, it was a north 13k
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but the bug says below 12k what do you think of the clart >> i think the chart is fine i think the move has been good you don't want it to explode to 15,000 and 4ed back to all-time highs. i think you want it to go to 14, 15, back to fall down to 11 and make the next move higher. if it was stock and we play the game all the time, i think it sets up really well. in terms of facebook very quickly, we get a lot wrong. we got this one right. you know, back on june 3rd, trace down to 164. perfect retracement of the entire move we have seen over the last year or so. we said sets up to take on new heights. i said this many times i don't want to like facebook for a myriad of reasons but you have to be true to yourself and the stock sets up well into earnings probably at an all-time high of a year ago. >> in terms of the all-time run, is there a reason to like facebook >> from what we heard from the analysts it is not if anything, it diverts attention off some of their security issues and the regulatory dynamic coming at them from other faces where they're too big to fail.
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i think ultimately as we talked about on the desk, with facebook one of the benefits they have is actually more regulation is going to make it harder for anyone to get close to their critical mass and their footprintfully of any time still ahead, energy letting up today as the best performing sector and one trader de ama $2 million bet the rally is about to surge higher. that's coming up live from the nasdaq in times square, much more "fast money" square, much more "fast money" still ahead. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis. join us for a walk? i'd love to, but my legs and feet are so tired and achy. walter, you need revitive ! it's the circulation booster! it really got me moving. i use my revitive every day!
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welcome back to "fast money" crude oil surging 4% today as u.s. stockpiles dropped by nearly 10 million barrels or triple what was expected that's not the only thing driving prices higher. a tropical storm growing in the gulf coasts meteorologists think could be causing a hurricane causing major flooding in new orleans. one-third of production in the gulf has been shut down and a storm could wreak more havoc on rigs and refineries as it continues to move west one trader just spent more than $2 million that energy stocks are about to surge higher. mike is in san francisco with the options action what are you looking at? >> we are looking at xle, the energy etf it was interesting today we saw well above average options volume, most as a result of a single trade. somebody traded 10,000 december
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55/64/75 call spread risk reversals. so what did they do? they sold 10,000 of the 55 puts, bought 10,000 of the 64 straight calls and sold another 10,000 of the 75 strike calls. net/net spending $2.25 a share, times 100 multiplier times 10,000 contract, that's how you got to the $2.25 million in premium outlay this is a good trade to take a look at, because if you are looking at it one of things this you notice is the 55 puts they sold close to the december '18 lows and the strikes they sold not far off the change in the xle high in the course of the past year. this is giving this trader exposure above the current level. basically from 3.5 up to 17% appreciation in xle without facing all of the down side risk if it actually was going to approach the december 2018 lows. one of the reasons you look at spreads like this is unlike f 2y xle options are 40% more expensive. >> mike, thank you mike khouw in san francisco.
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steve grasso, what did you think of the moves >> i'm looking at the screen year-to-date xle is up 12% one year back, down 14%. five years i said it was flat, i was wrong. down 6%. you can invest in these longer term, despite what the d.o.e. numbers were today, we are in oversupply of oil. ultimately, the macro, we are going lower in oil you couldn't have scripted a more bullish scenario with everything -- with the backdrop from the storm, from iran, from venezuela, to everything for the price of oil, and it still hasn't been able to breach those all-time highs. >> ywe did a thing at the smart board with a power pitch. >> it is actually a fast pitch. >> 75/25. >> thank you >> i like that they had a nice day today and i think it rallies in earnings i will take the other side of steven, but i think energy sets up well especially if banks are putting a blow torch to the
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currencies. >> it didn't go very well. >> what would you think if you had bought it? >> i have a call from devon right now and one of the names i power pitch, fast pitched actually, kmi. >> thank you. >> all richard kinder does is continue to buy back his stock look at the stock. pushing on the 52-week highs once again i think it is a name that could continue on its way to the upside in the meantime, you are getting a great dividend. >> all right "options action," full show, friday, 5:30 eastern time. friday, 5:30 eastern time. up next, final trade exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds p see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪
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time for the final trade pete >> i'm giving a trifecta tonight. we're dooing micron, amd, wd -- >> what! >> i'm telling you, these hit today with unusual option activity i bought all three. >> i don't know if it is value for your money or being -- >> no one has ever given three final trades at once i will give you one. amazon, fresh all-time highs, underperforming last six months. take it now. >> grasso. >> you know what has no impact with trade or anything going on? >> match >> match group. >> what match? >> match group. >> whoa. >> up 71% year-to-date if you want to hold back, wait
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until it reaches 75. >> are you on that >> steve knows a lot about that. >> final drad? >> soar industries. >> interesting. >> for a my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you money. my job is to entertain, educate, teach you, explain it all. call me or tweet me @jimcramer that's it. okay i have had enough, right i keep hearing at today's rally dow gaining 77


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