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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  July 3, 2019 12:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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>> thank you, aditi roy, in san francisco. >> just want to look at the mark markets. at session highs the s&p is up 18 2991 right now we're poised for a fresh record closes for both of those averages one hour left of trade that's going to do it for us here at "squawk alley. we'll send it to contessa and will for the closing bell. >> good afternoon. and welcome to the "closing bell." a special edition. i'm will fred frost at the stock exchange there's one hour left of this shortened trading day. the s&p 500 already made history with a record intraday high. we're covering all angles of the market as we count you down to the close early at 1:00 p.m. and contessa is here >> is that what makes it special or is it the 1:00 close. >> i'm contessa brewer in for sara eisen today welcome to the "closing bell." let's look at what's driving the action any close higher for the s&p would be enough to make a record and for the s&p, a close above
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26,828, also would set a record. it's the first time -- it would be the first time since october of 2018. the ten-year treasury yield falling to its lowest level since 2016 as we see yields globally fall as well. we're awaiting the key june jobs report as well due out on friday morning. >> nasdaq only just off its own closing. dow and s&p comfortably in that territory. josh brown is with us from ritzhold wealth management >> great to be here. >> you're always here on these record high days you keep the market going higher >> they book me far in advance, though, so i can't take any credit >> what are you watching in terms of the slightly disappointing data does that concern you or not >> i'm concerned all the time. we have a saying that only price pays so you can look at everything that you want and knock yourself out, but at the end of the day, if you're looking at price, it's
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impossible to be bearish you can't -- like what more do you want out of a market s&p 500, new highs more importantly, xly, consumer discretionary, and xlp, the consumer is on fire. home builders made a new high yesterday and then you look at the turn around and even harder hit sectors from last week iyr and xlu, that's real estate and utilities. both of them, big reversals. now the energy starting to move. finance starting to move if you are looking at price, there's nothing in there telling you we're on the verge of a bear market or that this is unsustainable. big, global, renowned companies, disney, mcdonald's, walmart, target, on and on, all making new highs. what else would you fpt you are a market participant what other scenario would you be looking for. yes. look at all the data and say, tell me what the market is doing. >> all right, josh, we'll keep an eye on what the market is doing as we approach record
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highs for the dow and the s&p and the nasdaq not that far off. seema mody has more. josh lipton has details on possible tech deal aditi roy is watching the shake-up at pot giant and ilon myu >> expectations of a fed rate cut continue to rise that's pushing stocks to new highs. bond yields to new lows. november 2016 the lowest for the ten-year yield traders saying a 25% chance the fed cuts rates by a half a percentage point in the july 30th meeting that's a 50 -- that's 50 basis points and inching off from the 20% back on monday now the countdown to jobs friday it is, economists expecting, 165,000 jobs to be added and wage inflation to tick up in may. the u.s. added a lackluster 75,000 jobs back in the may report
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coca-cola, starbucks, mcdonald's and accenture hitting all-time highs. >> thank you meantime, shares of tesla rising on the back of the second quarter delivery numbers late yesterday. phil lebeau has more in chicago. >> wilf, the focus and question is can tesla meet its full-year guidance when it comes to vehicle deliveries for some reference here, look at where tesla is right now they have essentially delivered about 158,000 vehicles year to date, including a record 95,200 in the second quarter. so they've got to come up with about 200,000 in deliveries in the next two quarters in order to hit that guidance of between 360 and 400,000 deliveries wall street, they are not terribly impressed with the numbers yesterday. barclays out with a note saying we continue to expect a loss this quarter as well as a challenging sales/profit environment for the remainder of the year as the ev tax credit drops. it got cut down to $1,875 starting on july 1st take a look at shares of tesla at one point this was up well
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over $240 a share. it's given some of that back but, still, a nice gain of almost 5% today. guys, back to you. >> all right, phil, thank you for that turning to the potential deal news in the tech space. josh lipton has information on the deal between broadtech and symantec >> broadcom is in talks to acquire symantec no guarantee a deal gets done here but the ft reports the transaction could be worth more than $15 billion this is what broadcom's ceo hock tan does, deals. buying companies from brocade to ca technologies to build out his portfolio of products. though investors have questions. with the traditional chipmaker now making such stronger moves in the software market, can he integrate these companies as successfully >> josh, thank you for that. shares of pot company canopy, meantime, lower today following a surprise management shakeup.
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aditi roy has the details in san francisco. >> thanks, wilf. the company's co-ceo bruce linton is out. he says he wasfired. shares initially fell upon the news and have now rebounded in the green. linton hess it stems from constellation brands appointing a number of directors back in the fall and not the disappointing q4 results >> i think, you know, they expect some disappointment there, but i think at the end of the day, sometimes entrepreneurs are entrepreneurs because they're not super employable >> linton's co-ceo becomes the sole ceo while the company searches for a replacement back to you guys >> all right, aditi, thank you turning to the fed president trump announced his attention to nominate two new candidates for the fed's vacant seats. >> those nominees are christopher waller and judy shelton. shelton will be more controversial. waller is the research director
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of the st. louis fed and is close to bank president jim bullard, the lone member of the fomc calling for a rate cut. meanwhile, judy shelton is no stranger to our viewers. she wants to go back to the gold standard and wants the fed to cut rates now. last night she tweeted she'll strive to support the u.s. pro-growth economic agenda with the appropriate monetary policy. both nominees still need to be confirmed by the senate. back to you. >> ylon, thank you for more on those nominees, let's bring in the chairman of laffa associates also co-author of trumponomics and a recent medal of honor recipient. >> it's my pleasure. thank you for having me. >> what is your take on both of these appointments, and how likely they are to be approved >> well, i don't know waller at all, personally. he sounds fine to me sounds just great. i know judy shelton. i think she's spectacular. i don't see why there should be
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any controversy whatsoever on getting these two agreed to by the senate i just don't see any reason why. and they will be really good for monetary policy. >> arthur, i imagine you would have said the same thing about stephen moore ahead of his travails and getting confirmed, and there was some similarities. the mention of gold standard, as well, comes up in various comments from judy shelton do you think that could be something that could cause issues >> you know, steve moore is one of my best friends ever. i co-authored that book with him. i don't want to go back over the issue with steve i don't think there will be any controversy with judy shelton. she's a clear, solid, academic economist. the gold standard worked very, very well for centuries. anyone wanting to do a price rule, gold would play some part in that and the price rule is the way to go. and i think judy shelton would be terrific. i don't think she'll have any problem with the republicans in the senate >> hi, arthur. can i ask you a question about that you don't think she'll have any problems -- >> of course
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>> for technical reasons because the senate is going to wave her through. but she actually stops just short of calling for the end of the fed. and an actual quote which has not been a recent quote but i think it speaks vumgs aboolumest her attitude toward the process. 12 people meeting eight times a year deciding what the price of money should be is ridiculous. i'm paraphrasing to some extent. has she suddenly changed her mind or do you just say whatever you have to say to get in the door and then proceed to follow through with that agenda >> well, let me just say that i would not use the word perfectly ridiculous, but i think an independent fed makes no sense whatsoever you elect a president. elect the congress they should be able to have the tools available to them to do the right job for the economy. we shouldn't have independent people from princeton university running our monetary policy with no recourse to the electorate. it doesn't make any sense to me. when you look at the process of
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what monetary policies were, the best in this world, i think her analysis is dead on. so, you know, academically, there are a lot of economists who agree with her a lot of economists who disagree with her a lot of economists who think the fed should not be beholden to the president or congress but i'm not one of those but i think she's just fine. she's pleasant, affable, she'll get along well she's a different voice but she'll not run the country she'll just be one of 12 and that will be it and she'll do a darn good job. >> when you look at corporate boards across the united states, the research shows that having a diverse point of view, that having diversity of thought, really matters in success rates. here's my question >> yes >> when you say you don't think there should be an independent fed, can you explain why you think it would be better to have partisan politicians making crucial monetary policy? >> well, i guess what i really believe and forgive me, but i really do believe in democracy and people should have a right
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to elect representatives who then have control over policies. now as long as you'll have a democracy, you need to have something like that and an independent fed is beholden to no one these professors, and i'm one of them i've been a professor all my life ph.d. stanford, all of them. we aren't beholden to any electorate there and just do what we darn please. and that's not the way the fed should be run. frankly, my view and i love the fed and love the people on it so don't get me wrong. they are high quality people it should just be part of the democracy that that should be controlled by the elected officials, not by appointed officials. >> but arthur, do you not admit that if that was the case, it would be more likely than not that the economic cycle would end up being four years, and we'd get a monetary policy induced run into each election, and that wouldn't be good for the economy in the long term >> well, let me just say it this way. i think the quantitative easing done by ben bernanke and followed on by janet yellen was part of the real problem of why
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we had the great recession when they brought interest rates down to zero, it meant that no one was willing to lend money to new home buyers who are risky and 30-year mortgages at 2%. it's just not a viable market. they made a huge mistake caused the economy to be really bad for a long period of time. they did it because they believed it was right, but it wasn't right and it caused that, and i don't think that was -- would have been made any worse by elected officials having the ability to control monetary policy. i really don't but they are good people and they are -- >> tried that in the 1800s we tried that. >> and it worked >> no, it didn't work. it was a disaster. >> what happened >> the panic of 1901, 1903, 1907 we did the gold standard game. it doesn't work. >> excuse me, can i just make a statement here >> please. >> we've had panics throughout history and they're cleared up in six, eight months and off to a new bull market. this time we extended the panic for a decade because we didn't
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all aallow people to have losses we made interest so low it wasn't worth it to invest in housing or the goods market at all. i think we extended that just like we did the great depression the great depression was caused by tax rate hikes and very bad monetary policy. and i think the great recession was, too now there are a lot of people who don't agree with me but you can go back and look at my pieces in "the wall street journal. so i was saying it back then as well and i, frankly, think diversity is wonderful and i think judy shelton would be a very diverse person on that fed and would make the fed a lot better but personally, i think it should be in the control of congress and the president, not in some appointed body that's beholden to no one but that's just me i understand different views >> we're nearly out of time. do you think, therefore, the president's got to be careful what he wishes for in judy shelton if she shares some of the views that you have? it might not be lower interest
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rates, qe and a weaker dollar. >> well, i don't know what judy shelton is going to say on the fed board. i've heard her say she thinks interest rates should be lower and monetary standard would clearly give you lower interest rates right now. they'd follow the market, not lead the market. i think that would make sense at present. she may well do stuff i wouldn't agree with she's an independent person. very smart and well educated i've been wrong a lot of times in my life, so forgive me, but i'm not worried about judy shelton on the fed board i'm really not >> arthur laffer, thanks for joining us congratulations on the recent medal of freedom >> thanks. >> judy will be on "squawk alley" on friday we'll be speaking to judy shelton, 11:40 a.m. eastern time josh, do you get concerned when you hear people supporting these types of candidates? >> just doesn't make any sense she's a gold advocate and arguably inflation hawk.
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he tweeted an hour ago that europe and china get to push down their currency. why can't i play the same game what is the policy and then kudlow is mr. king dollar so which do you want you want a lower dollar? that's not benefits and draw backs. or do you want a stronger dollar because i will present you a different menu of -- but not knowing anything at all and just picking people because politically they are at the right country club, okay we'll see how that goes. maybe it will be okay for six months a year later, two years later. i don't know that we want to introduce people who literally are against the institution and how it works >> but that's -- that's been the president's m.o. he has done that multiple agencies >> how has that gone businesswise historically? not really good? chaos for the sake of -- >> can't argue with the stock market performance on a day where we've got record all-time closing highs. >> thank the fed for that. >> insight for the s&p and for the dow, although not quite for
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the nasdaq but strong gains today up 138 points on the dow. s&p is up 0.6% still ahead -- much more on today's record-setting day on wall street. we'll look ahead to the jobs number on friday and what it could mean for the rally plus, we'll drill down on tesla's big move higher with an analyst who has one of the highest price targets on wall street >> as we head to break, a check on the "closing bell" data tracker. the june ism nonmanufacturing index. 55.1 missed estimate to 55.8 private payrolls rose 102,000 in june that missed estimates of 135k. we're back in a couple minutes under this buttonwood tree, is where people first gathered to form the stock exchange which brought people together to invest in all the things that move us forward. every day, invesco combines ideas with technology, data with inspiration, investors with solutions. because the possibilities of life and investing are greater
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we're at session highs now on the dow jones industrials and on watch for a record close for the dow and s&p. if the s&p closes higher, this would be its third straight day of record closes let's send it over to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. hi, mike >> hi, contessa. here's what we have ahead for you. going to get into some self-evident truths about why the market has traded up to where it has and then created equal. going to take a look at how democratic this rally has been impelled to separate
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there are some key indexes that have gone their own way. some key divergences and then the pursuit of happiness which is a check on investor sentiment. that's later on. some self-evidence truths. obviously the stock index at a record high. the bond yields at close to 2 1/2-year lows. almost three-year lows by the way, july 8th, 2016 was the all-time low in the ten-year treasury yield that anniversary is monday here's the s&p dividend yield compared to the ten-year note yield. what you see over here, of course, is we have nosed below it again the ten-year treasury yield is below the dividend yield of the s&p above 2% on a forward going basis. obviously, we spent a lot of time here when you had stocks yielding more than bonds also back here in 2015, 2016 it was a key support it also told you what kinds of stocks were working and growth stocks do well they have very long-term cash
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flows that can be worth more when bond yields are lower it's not the reason the market is up but part of the backdrop helping money stay in stocks or go into stocks from here this would be something of a key dynamic. also keep in mind it's not the same type of investors choosing between these two asset classes but a scarcity of yield and it's going to go up over time the bond yield is not. >> mike, to that point, it's not necessarily the same investors we also get reminded how much the u.s. treasury yield curve is reacting german ten-year, negative 0.4% is probably a closer correlation than, well, certainly based on that chart, the more dividend yields are doing in the equity market >> without a doubt that's the leading edge of where this entire kind of global yield scarcity is starting i do like to point out, though, that there just isn't all that much german government debt in the grand scheme of things to be wagging the entire world around. you add it all together, a lot
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of negative yielding debt. so, yes, it's very important but it's not the only reason that the entire world is in this kind of yield ice age >> that's true, though there's a lot of italian debt for the biggest bull market in the world. 2.7 to 1.6 on the ten-year in the space of about a month so yields generally moving lower globally >> that must mean italy is a safer credit than the united states i learned that in a textbook >> well, greece isn't far off at the moment so maybe the textbook is wrong but -- which i know you're implying anyway. but it goes to the point that christine lagarde is being applauded by bond markets not just for what she'd do for monetary policy but also much safer over the last 24 hours >> the ultimate political fix is something beyond her capabilities, which is a centralized government to actually make rules about how you restructure banks that are failing, et cetera that's a long ways off this will continue >> that's a long ways off but
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fractsi i fractionally less far off than when you had the candidates taking the top two jobs. >> it does take a village. >> it does yields low equities higher. the general theme of mike's chart. >> 37 minutes before the bell on this shortened trading day the dow is right now at -- up half a percent and we're at intraday highs. new record the s&p is now up 6. -- 0.65%. 20 points. >> nasdaq composite not far off its closing high >> it looks like some real enthusiasm heading into the holiday. >> there is indeed we are record close -- >> this is in the context of an earnings downdraft for the second quarter that we are now looking through. whole market is aware. consensus is looking for a dip in earnings and we're rallying despite that you have to take that psychology
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and make this part of whatever you think this second shafl going to bring also still to come, president trump's new fed fex with former fed nominee stephen moore. and fed governor sarah raski ayitusn.
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welcome back to "closing bell." word on the street loop capital markets upgrading sin mark to buy from hold. they note an attractive valuation and is maintaining a
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$44 price target >> stifel is rising its price target on starbucks. that's hot or cold depending on how you like it. the firm expects second quarter same store sales to come in above expectations it was a really poor excuse for a joke but i've had too much caffeine new street puts out a new note on tesla the firm has a buy rating and a $530 price target and says it expects tesla to meet its full-year guidance pierre from new street research, what's the concern what are the risks for it not hitting the goals you think it's capable of >> it's a very good question you look at the second part, 95,000 cars but more orders. the real issue is to be able to increase deliveries by about 10,000 each quarter in q3 and
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q4 and my view is the most important factor is a shanghai factory. if tesla can stop producing dars in shanghai by the end of the year it will be very easy to meet if they start delivering cars, only the first month of 2020, that will be more challenging to achieve. >> what data points would you like to see from the past quarter that would give you more confidence for the future quarters that's not been disclosed? >> so, i think on the demand side, on -- all data points we can see are actually excellent on the profitability side, of course, we need to make sure the company is on track and can continue to progress without burning cash and being a free cash flow -- >> is there more capital raised in the second half of this year? >> if we don't turn into a
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recession scenario or something like that, are very low to me. >> would you be buying tesla, josh >> no. >> not going to change your mind >> no. this is in my too hard pile. i wouldn't bet against it. this is a stock that rallies on bad news it's like one of the most frustrating names in the world to be bearish about, but as far as being an investor, even if all of the pieces fall into place, and i'd love to hear your take on this even if all the pieces fall into place and they get to profitability, arguably, it's already valued as though they've done it. what's the catalyst from this price if they get there. is this just going to be an oilmaker that trades into perpetuity >> let me give you like a couple of key facts to understand that. the answer in one word is disruption if tesla is a real disruption than it's worth way more if it's just a car manufacturer, i agree with you so why is tesla disruption tesla delivered in the second quarter 50,000 cars in the u.s
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all premium brands altogether in the u.s., delivered 60,000 midsize premium sedan. so tesla is almost as much as the rest of the market >> enterprise value of almost $50 billion. the market is already giving it credit for disruption. >> no, not enough credit >> how much should they get? >> $530 in one year from now >> $530 is pierre's price target thanks for joining us. tesla up 5% or so with 30 minutes left of trade. >> we could see record closes for the dow and the s&p and the nasdaq hitting intraday highs right now. here are three things driving the action on record close watch for the dow and the s&p. the nasdaq just a few points now below record closing levels. the ten-year treasury yield falling to its lowest level since 2016 and we're awaiting the key june jobs report. that's due out on friday morning. >> time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> hello, wilf
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hello, everybody russian authorities say at least 20 people have died, eight are still missing in massive floods in southeastern siberia five of the original 13 people missing have been rescued and the search for those unaccounted for it under way thousands of people had to be evacuated. >> delta airlines is ramping up its service for international travelers flying in economy class. starting in november, the airline will offer new premium extras, including welcome aboard cocktails, hot towel service and bistro style meals at the end of the flight, they'll be treated to chocolates waymo's self-driving vehicles just got the green light to transport passengers on california roads but there will be restrictions. the company cannot charge passengers, and a safety driver must be behind the wheel to take over in case of an emergency and the american cancer society says more than 492,000 people aged 16 to 84 died from cancer in 2015 that comes out to nearly 9
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million years of lost life the estimate for lost earnings is over $94 billion. but that does not include the cost of treatment or caregiving. you're up to date. that's the news update contessa, back downtown to you >> sue, thank you. let's send it over to mike santoli for a second dashboard what do you have >> contessa, we're looking at what would the market look like if all stocks were created equal or treated as if they were equal? this is the s&p 500 along with the equal weighted version of the s&p 500. the etf that tracks that equal weighted index is the rsp. this is a year to date basis they're in lock step you see the rsp has nosed ahead of the market cap weighted s&p 500 by just a touch. it's not always this way this shows it's been a relatively broad advance full participation also at an all-time high a one-year basis year to date. if you look at it over a full year you'll see the largest stocks have had a greater role
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the s&p outforming the rsp by almost three percentage points that's been the case we know small cap stocks have been lagging but right now, i think on a current basis, the market has got full enough participation from the equal weighted version from a lot of other measures of market breadth and you can say this is not too narrow a rally to keep going for a bit. >> mike, thank you as always after the break, friday's jobs report could provide clues 'ldiusthe fed's next move. wel scs where the number could land, next him? let's do it. [ sniffing ] come on. this summer, add a new member to the family. hurry into the mercedes-benz summer event today
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welcome back we are at session highs. pretty much session highs up 0.6% on the s&p. 166 points is the high a moment ago, up 153. we are set for record all-time closing highs for the dow and s&p at 8160 on the nasdaq. we're four points off a record all-time closing high. the june jobs report due out on friday joining us to talk about what investors should watch, mike feroli from jpmorgan and chris cordera, from regent atlantic. a very good afternoon to you
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both i'll start with you. what was your take on adp? are you adjusting your forecast off the back of it >> i think in the realm of how accurate that is, i don't think it's a big enough disappointment to move our forecast we're looking for 140,000 job gains on friday which would be better than adp, a little below consensus. the main message is you look at jobless claims adp. the recent payrolls. is that job growth has been slowing but it's not collapsing. which is what we expect to see continue on friday >> when you look at the fact that may had also disappointing numbers, there was an expectation that we were going to see this as a one-off and now this is setting us up. do you think that we're going to set ourselves up for disappointment on friday >> i think, you know, the estimates coming in are disappointing. and i think we continue to see a slow decline in the economy going forward. and i think that probably sets
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us up for a rate cut >> what do you read into it the fact that small businesses are losing the most? 23,000 jobs. especially construction, mining. >> well, i think that hurts a lot. i think those are small business -- small businesses are what really is the backbone of the economy and grows the economy. so that makes it more difficult. >> mike, just want to watch as well on the appointment of christine lagarde to the ecb does that alter your expectations of how dovish central banks outside of the u.s. are going to be >> it reinforces our call the ecb probably will ease policy later this year. it would be more of a change for our outlook if you had someone like bideman appointed i think with lagarde you have someone who is modestly more dovish than we expected but not so much that it would really change the outlook either for the ecb or the global policy outlook for that matter. >> chris, you've picked out a
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couple of u.s. stocks for us i see what you and josh think about them target you like at the moment? >> i like target a lot i think the retailers have been way oversold you just look at interest rates, too. target is yielding 3%. a lot more than the ten-year treasury i also think that target has figured out the bricks and mortar and online retailer and is in good position to compete >> josh, you in it >> i don't own it but not because i don't like it. and i think target and walmart are virtually the same story they have finally gotten omni channel to click and they've been aggressive digitally. that's what their street has been waiting for both stocks woke up around the same time. both breaking out to new highs walmart is already there target probably any day now. >> gentlemen, thank you very much chris, michael by the way, chris says he's flipping burgers tomorrow. i hope it comes off the grill perfectly medium rare if that's what you choose. >> and doesn't land on the floor. >> i'll be eating burgers tomorrow >> fantastic
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less than half an hour to go the dow and s&p on track to close at record highs. now the nasdaq not far behind. up next, we're coming back with the buzz on wall street. plus, the ten-year yield hitting its lowest level since november 2016 in today's session. we'll dive into that move coming up
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time for today's buzz on wall street. shares of canopy growth falling earlier today after co-ceo and founder bruce linton told "squawk box" he got the boot from his company the stock has now bounced back this morning now trading higher by about 1.5%. josh, you own canopy >> i do.
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before i even saw the stock reverse higher today, i was going to say, i hope they beat it up. i would buy more of it >> did you manage to buy any this morning when it was down? >> no. i think what matters with canopy i don't have a big position. my intention is to be a long-term investor what matters with -- the two biggest mistakes is look at linton leaving and think that matters. the second is look at valuation. it's 70 times sales. like there's no reason to look at either of those two things. market share is what's going to matter and this company has a huge head start no one is even close to. and the other thing to keep in the back of your head is, this is an investment that's not a passive investment on the part of constellation at a certain point, they could pull the trigger at any point rather. they have an enterprise value like $50 billion this company if you net out the cash, really is only $11 billion. minus the stake they already have so if the company does need to be acquired, it will be acquired so i think there are a lot of
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ways to win here long term i can't tell you if it sees 38 before it sees 42 but i'd be a buyer if i didn't already own it and may end up adding. >> this is the only one you own? >> i don't have an interest in like spreading it out and making a lot of bets. i think this is the one that's going to win in part because it already seems to have won strategically. >> interesting up now about a percent and a half down about 4% or 5% when the news hit this morning during "squawk box. we've got 15 minutes left until the close. we could see -- wealmost certainly will see a record all-time closing high for the s&p and the dow. the nasdaq not far off we're right at session highs we'll see if they hold and get those record closes. last chance trade coming up. and as we head to break, here are the leaders in the s&p year to date we're back right after this. excuse me, where is gate 87? you should be mad at non-seasoned travelers.
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welcome back to the "closing bell." 12 minutes left of trade we are set for another record all-time closing high for the s&p. the dow also set to hit its own record all-time closing high the nasdaq composite just a couple points off. there's the sector heat map.
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all 11 sectors higher today. a little defensive tilt. staples, real estate and utilities. reacting to the lower yields materials, financials, industrials at the bottom but no complaints with all of those sectors higher, up about 0.6% for the s&p 500. josh, let's get to your last chance trade what are you going for today >> i'm going to talk about netflix. this stock has done something incredible over the last nine months it's traded in an obscenely tight range after recovering from the sell-off in the fourth quarter. it's been between 335 and call it 380, 383. but the entire time, we've not seen netflix act that way. and consolidate such a long period i'm going to introduce you to something called a buy stop limit. 385. that would be what they'd call a trigger. stock breaks above 385, i want to be long so as soon as it crosses, your brokerage will process that. you'll be in the trade that's the breakout, 385 has
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been resistance pretty much year to date. if it gets above, there really are no sellers anymore and a lot of people feel they're missing the train. that's where they'd buy. it's a relatively low-risk trade. you'll know if you're wrong very quickly. in the meantime, watch itmeanti. watch it consolidate with nothing at risk and wait until the trade actually happens you don't even have to be present for the beginning of the trade. you get triggered and you have that order in and then keep an eye on it, once it does trigger. >> do you put a floor underneath it once you're long? >> it depends. it may not happen until november and it may happen next week. it is a very tight range and we're at the upper end of that range. i think i would base that decision first on what we're risking, et cetera it's a great setup and one of the few fangs that looks poised to make a new breakout after a long period of doing nothing >> this is technical call. no change in the fundamentals from your perspective. >> i'm talking market action
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i don't know the fundamentals any better than the yycmas. we're on record close watch for the s&p and the dow and the nasdaq, as well. just the dow and the s&p already up there we're covering all angles of the market in our closing countdown. as we head to break, the winners and losers in the dow. we'll be right back. ♪
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welcome back six minutes left of trade. we are on track for a record all-time closing high for all three of the major indices the dow, the nasdaq and the s&p 500. let's trade the close with morgan from market advisors. historic potentially all three about to close in record all-time high territory. the nasdaq is the closest to it as it was talking but maybe could end up high. what are the key things you're watching >> we're watching a lot of the economic data. thanks for having me obviously, adp report this morning was a little disappointing, but i think we're seeing the rally based on increased expectations of a fed cut at the july meeting. possibly even 50 basis points.
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>> what would give you confidence that would get 50 basis points >> well, i'd say possibly 50 basis points i think we're looking at 75% chance of a 25-point basis cut and 25% cut of 50 basis points, but we'll know more on friday. if the friday report confirms this morning's adp then it is likely we'll get 25, maybe more. >> is this all optimism over the fed cut or are you seeing other moves driving this market higher today? >> well, it certainly is the optimism about a fed rate cut is there. and as goes the fed, so goes to the markets. but the reality is the economy is incredibly strong and not that much of a need for a cut, but now we think we're going to get one. add on to that a sub 2% ten year and a recipe for further expansion and prolonging this
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ten-plus year expansionary period >> you're also watching your smart money watch flow index tell us about that >> one thing we look for for confirmation of the way i interpret the economic data is we determine the smart money index. takes the previous day's close and the action in the first 30 minutes of trading and adds the last 30 minutes of trading in. the theory is that in the beginning of the day, you have reactionary traders and at the end of the day, you have more long term serious or smart money. since that bottom in december, december 24th, we've seen that smart money index continue to rise to me, it looks like continued equity accum yulgz >> thanks for joining us >> thanks for having me. barring disaster the s&p and the dow will close at record highs and the nasdaq is half a point off.
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8. 816 is for the level you're watching for the nasdaq. >> i will try to bar disaster in the last three minutes or so here, guys calling this impelto separate. some disagreement among large chunks of the global markets and here is a picture of some of them we talked about before in the s&p 500, all stocks are in gear. the equal weighted version is fine and here is the s&p and, sorry, this is the s&p 500 against the all-country world index. so, everything in the world that trades except for the united states market. you can see the s&p 500 here over the last year has a nice, let's call it 8% or 9 percentage point advantage. this is persistent for a long time a lot of asset allocaturs in there saying, how can you not like the cheaper, global markets especially if the dollar is coming off for a little bit. all makes sense. but for now this trend has remained in place. even if it has stalled out a little bit also by market cap, did want to
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look at the russell 1000 against the russell 2000 the large cap universe and the 2 2000 and up 10% even though the market clicks to a new open. looking at a one-year basis. that's something that is not holding the overall marketback it is interesting to note. rick santelli is back and giving us a look at the bond market rick >> it's not only buy, buy, buy for stocks but for sovereigns. look at the two-day of our tens. yes, we hit .193 today and down two basis point where the two-year notes are unchanged look at boons, they hit minus 40 and closed at minus 38 think about the italian economy and look at a two-day chart of italian tenures and basically close to 30 basis points to our
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tens more than just weakness going on with respect to dropping rates as much buying going on in the nasdaq, bertha coombs. the record close two months ago. what was driving it the software names. symantec thatterested in buyingm here on the nasdaq and in the chip sector and as we look at the nasdaq back at all-time highs. what's still sitting it out, biotech in correction and chips still have a ways to go along with a couple of the other tech sectors. over to seema. >> bertha, record intraday for the dow and three record highs in three days. not bad for a holiday shortened week conagra and kellogg leading the
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s&p to the upside and up 5% and 6% and mcdonald's and coke both hitting all-time highs the staples playing a role and there's the closing bell the s&p 500 adds 2,995 just about five points of breaking 3000. the dow new high 26,961. today here at the stock exchange record all-time closing highs for the dow and s&p and nasdaq good afternoon, if you're joining us, welcome to "closing bell." mike san to the s&p ends the day at a record high and the nasdaq ends the day at a record high and taking a look there at the russell 2000 up 75% on the day
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a big day for all the indices. both here on the floor and in the broader markets. >> absolutely right, contessa. we finish at the session highs 7.6% high for the s&p 500 with all the sectors higher led by staples, real estate, utilities and not particularly in that se sense but with yields moving low, all 11 sectors high and the russell also taking part today. it has lagged in recent trading sessions all of them essentially higher by 0.75% >> not every day you get fireworks at the new york stock exchange at least not literally exactly. just all celebrate joining us to talk about the market day, jim bianoco is the president of bianco research and investment and retirement job and josh brown great to see you all all right, let's start with you, josh what's moving the markets higher >> i think mike was pointing at international stocks and pointing out small making a
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comeback those, to me, don't get a lot of the headlines, but those are two of the most important factors. the broadening out of the rally says only one thing. there is more confidence than there was at the start of the year even germany is up 18% shanghai composite is up 25% these are big moves and big international markets where the economic news has not been great. you couple that with the idea that value is coming back a little bit finance, energy and those are the two most important sectors for value. you couple that with the indices catching up and that will take a while and start to move higher small caps doing better which is also a financials story. that is important for market confidence and important for technicals for a lot of reasons that, i think, will be a bigger story as the umsummer progresses. if it continues, it bodes well for everyone >> mike, your take on all of this >> the kind of day that the market is going to go in the
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direction of least resistance, which clearly was and is up. and it seemed that once we got past the g-20, all a matter of people feeling a little underinvested. a rate fed cut no reason to look in the eyes of the record-low bond yields just about and do anything but try to add a little bit of risk. i also think that we're talking about these huge year to date moves. we're no where on a 9, 12-month basis. the market is a little bit less overstretched to the upside than it would otherwise be if you're pushing a 20% year to date gain. all that is the context. i think we're going to get this up a little bit higher and probably, 3,000 on the s&p is too close not to touch and probably go beyond a little bit right here then we'll see if everybody gets a little overexcited and everyone is expecting the fed to be their friend. that's when you might get your pull back if you're looking for one. >> nick, talk me through some of the signs that are not so optimistic here.
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you have an ism manufacturing number that is showing some weakness you've got some durable goods trends that are weakening and consumer confidence numbers taking a hit and that adm number that came in today are you seeing warning signs here that some of this optimism may be misplaced >> we are. based on what josh has talked about and mike has talked about, all of this is being trumped by the fact that we have a fed that is expected to be very supportive of the markets and if we look at today's moves and actually last night's move of the nominees to the federal reserve who appear to be in president trump's camp to support further rate hikes like the old saying goes, don't fight the feds we had weak durables and weak ism on service and manufacturing side combined with the weak adp number although wasn't as weak as last month. again, i believe all those are trumped by the fact that the fed goes at least a quarter point in july not to mention if we have a really, really soft number
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coming out on friday, potentially go half a point. i don't believe he will. i don't think he will need to go 50, 25 in july and then another 25 in september would probably do it. >> jim, does this record closing highs on the stock market make it less likely thatwe'll get a rate cut later this month? >> no, if anything, it will make it more likely i agree with nick. what is powering this market higher is, negative earnings growth and the economic numbers are slowing down and the down tick 1.3 these aren't disastrous numbers and these are not the numbers that they power to new high unless you have the prospects of easy money if the fed doesn't deliver what the market wants, i'll remind you the dow fell 3% in the one hour that jay powell talked at the december press conference. you can look at something like that, again, if the market, if the fed doesn't give the market what it wants. right now it wants 25 and it may want 50 before we get to july
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31st and that's really what the benchmark is we're debating whether or not it will be 50 >> hi, it's josh brown does your opinion change if we have a blowout jobs number does your opinion change that the market amust hamust have 25 basis points to stall the next correction >> the jobs number will be, if it was a blow out, remember, last month was bad 75,000 jobs and it wasn't good and it will be perceived as an off set in the marketplace now, yeah, if we were to see some kind of signs that the economic data, the earnings numbers are coming in way better and a bunch of guidance upgrades, then maybe we could talk about that the economy is just doing well enough that we don't need a rate cut. but right now, that's not what we're getting. we're getting downgrades in the data and we're getting the, mat falling in yields. the yield curve getting more inverted the three-month ten year getting more inverted and demanding more and more it needs
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monetary stimulus to keep going. >> nick, we're seeing a big rush on bonds, not just the treasuries, but on municipal bonds, as well yields are falling across the board. how do you play that >> yeah, i think if you look at a combination of factors would be tax plan that passed last year and the beginning of the year you know, more and more investors are looking for avenues and areas where they could pick up tax benefits where we lost the majority of oour tax deductions and states you can no longer deduct and state income tax. and chasing munies and talking about a fed that is very investor friendly and stepping to the sidelines it makes a lot of sense, especially in the high networth space to be investing in municipal bonds. >> jim, i just wanted to ask for your take on the president's nominees for the fed and the fact that i believe you said you were interviewed recently as to potentially being one of the candidates i guess you're disappointed.
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what is your take on the two picks? >> i was interviewed in late may for one of the fed government positions and i think that both of these are potentially good picks. judy shelton has a bit of a problem in that, you know, she talked one way until a couple months ago and she's been talking a lot more dovishly since and she needs to square that away. christopher waller is going to be pressed on the idea of whether or not he's a company man. he may have opinions, but at the end of the day, he will be told what to do because that's how the fed works andvote along th lines that the fed kind of wants him to vote and not along the line of his opinion. does he have the ability to push back, say no and decent. if they can answer those two questions. i can explain my differences, i think they could be very good picks for the fed. >> jim, how in the interview were you asked if you would vote to cut rates or not? >> well, i am a dove i do think that rates should be cut. i made the case that there is
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low inflation. that was definitely one of the hallmarks of what i stressed when i was there and that's not new i've been saying that for well over a year. so, that's been a well-known fact about what i have been saying about the fed >> we'll leave it there, guys. jim, nick and josh, thank you all very much. happy fourth to you all. coming up, much more on the record close for all three of those major averages stephen moore and sarah bloom raskin will weigh in whether they will push for lower interest rates bob johnson gives us his look for media stocks and whether disney's streaming service could deliver a major blow to netflix. -driverless cars... -all ground personnel...
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welcome back another record day on wall street with the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq all closing in unchartered territory. seema mood moody, rick santelli falling treasury prices. seema, let's start with you. >> stock shrugging off weaker data points to push ultimately higher
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factory orders fell for a second straight month and president trump selecting two nominees to the fed. both are expected to be dovish that is fueled expectations for a fed rate cut in the july meeting. both the dow and s&p 500 closing at new highs on very thin trading volume just about half of what we normally see by the close. some notable sectors not participating in the rally trade sensitive chipmakers are still higher for the week, but keep in mind, they're now given back about 75% of their monday gains following those g-20 talks. back to you. >> seema, thank you. let's get over to the nasdaq and the big movers there >> talk about closing out with a bang decisively moving to a new all-time record close. along with the nasdaq 100, as well, which put in an all-time record intra day this was definitely a tech-led today despite the fact that we had softness in chips, software, very strong. symantic high and broadcom might
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be interested in buying the company. meantime, microsoft has been what has led this market on a round trip may 3rd was the last time we closed at a record and take a look at microsoft. up over 6.5% over that period. take a look at the faang names they underperformed although we started to see some traction in amazon and facebook. apple and google, though, continue to be down in correction territory back over to you guys. >> bertha, thank you. the ten-year treasury yield falling to the lowest level and rick santelli has the details on that >> we showed it a lot, it's quite important. we bounced a little bit and 195 still a fresh close and going back to the next chart november of 2016, you see it there. everything in the market does have logic to it we had our june read on nonmanufacturing and the service sector at 51.5, it was the weakest number since, you guessed it, the fall of 2016
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a lot of comps are going there italian ten year going back to october 2016, the last time it was under 160. at the end of the day, whom the bell tolls, but at the end of the day, we are still part of that weakness that is being exported back to you and i hope you have a nice independence day. >> thank you very much, rick i'm not sure what is going on in the background there, but well done for playing on through. meanwhile, wall street is reacting -- >> go ahead, rick, you want to explain what it is >> s&p futures always close a little later than the big markets. you have fair value that last 15 minutes could make a big difference the futures closed early, but not quite as early as the big board. >> all right i like that explainer. thanks, rick. wall street is reacting to president trump's latest round of picks for the federal reserve board of governors the president tweeted last night he intends to nominate christopher waller director of
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research at the st. louis fral reserve and judy shelton the director at the european bank for reconstruction and development. >> to discuss, stephen moore heritage foundation and former fed board nominee and joining us on the phone sarah bloom raskin. federal reserve governor very good afternoon to both of you. steve, if i start with you, you disappointed you're no longer in the running or are you pleased with these picks >> i sure am i happy that judy shelton is going to take my place on the federal reserve i have known judy for 25 years and an outstanding economist probably more, you know, has a better background and knowledge of these things than i do and i know a lot about it. i want to shatter this narrative that i've heard on cnbc and other, you know, business reporters saying that somehow judy is a dove, she is not a dove, she is an inflation hawk
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i think judy and i share this belief, the fed has been way too tight for way too long one reason the economy is faltering a little bit when you have a 2% ten-year treasury bill, that's a sign that you don't have any inflation in the economy why else would people buy ten-year treasuries at 2% interest rates so, we do need the rate cuts now. not because, you know, we're doves, but because we think, if anything, the fear right now should be a deflation in the economy, not inflation >> what do you make of her previous support for going back to a gold standard >> well, look, i am one who always believed we should make the dollar as good as gold and you want the dollar anchored to something. i think, judy, i can't speak for her and i have had discussions with her that one good way of measuring where the dollar is headed and where prices are headed are to look at standard commodity indexes and that's where you see the deflation. as you look at the numbers just today. commodities are down about 12%
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or 13% in price over the last year ladies and gentlemen, that's deflation, right when you have falling prices of everything from soybeans to copper and, so, i don't, i would not characterize her as a dove, i would characterize her as someone who wants stable prices and someone who does not believe this philips curve nonsense that when you get economic growth, somehow that raises prices >> sarah, what is your take on both nominees and their likelihoods of being approved? >> so, i agree with steve that we all serve at a particular point in history both these potential nominees would be joining the board of governors at a time when the economy is lackluster. where business investment is low and wages have been slow to produce prosperity where independence is being questioned where a lot of people feel stuck. now, it is true that judy does
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have some unorthodox views i don't find those unorthodox views necessarily disqualifying. but she would be joining a system that she has stated that she doesn't believe in and, so, what does that involvement look like? will she ush for disabling the fed tools for dealing with down turns? what does it mean essentially to be a gold at this time i think when she comes before the senate banking committee, those will be the views that she'll want to lay the foundation for and show how they cohere and that will be, i think, a welcome discussion as for christopher waller, he comes from a place where the st. louis fed, which has produced some rich data sets on household well being and on household debt. those data sets come from the
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st. louis fed and one of his challenges will be really how, how that data fits into the fed's models and whether that, and whether fed policy is delivering the expected results the optimal result all households, to all corners of the economy and, of course, both nominees really will need to say something about regulation, as well governors are different from the rest of the fomc in the sense that they have to work at the safety and soundness of the banking system so one question will be whether these nominees, what do they think of the regulatory setting. are they appropriate for now >> steve, i do want to ask you about the president tweeting today that china and europe are manipulating their currencies and perhaps it's time for the united states to match them. is that good monetary policy >> well, first of all, let me go back i don't agree with a lot of the
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stuff that was just said we have a blockbuster economy right now. i understand the factory orders -- >> your last answer by saying the economy is weakening >> it is weakening but the main -- >> it's not both >> from very, very strong growth that we had in the fourth quarter, third quarter of 2018 and the first quarter was very solid this year. i think there are two factors that are holding back the economy right now. one is the fed has been too tight and in my opinion knocked about half a percentage point off of growth and the second factor is the china/trade war. the economy is going to explode with growth and equities will continue to go up. when you have 7.5 million more jobs than people to fill them. you have a pretty darn good solid economy for workers. and my point is i think judy is going to be a very solid hand at the fed. i don't know mr. waller, so i
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can't speak for him. what you want at the fed is stable prices. somehow the fed stabilizes the economy is nonsense. the fed is the one that caused the great recession in 2008 and 2009 by building up these huge bubbles in the housing market. so, the fed hasn't been the anecdote to recessions the fed has been the cause of recessions >> steve, what takes you to the white house today and to contessa's point, were you correct that today europe hasn't done any currency manipulation they simply made some new appointments in the way that he has. >> i don't think we should worry about what these other countries are doing with their currency. we should worry about what we're doing with ours. the dollar has been slow in my opinion and i think that is hurting growth a bit if you have the rate cuts that i want, i want to see a 50% rate cut reaction
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i think you'll see the dollar normalize and that's the best way to get back at the chinese, if, indeed, they are man manipulating their currency. >> sarah, i have one other quick question going back to judy shelton and some of the comments she made about monetary policy recently saying she believes the fed should stop paying excess, sarah, what is your view on that >> i think that is an interesting provocative statement. i think it is something that is worth exploring. i would not dismiss her arguments as being frivolous at all, but she should explain them and communication, of course, and the ability to communicate well is a strong feature of board governors. so, it will be good to hear how she explains what that problem is and what, you know, different ways in which it can be addressed. and i think that that is something that should be, should be explored and senators can then determine whether or not her position has coherence and
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whether it's relevant right now. >> i think, by the way, i talked to judy shelton about this issue and, you know, again, she and i think alike. when the feds started paying interest on reserves, had a very negative effect on lending and the recovery from the great recession back in 2011, '12, '13 was so weak. i don't know if i would go to zero on interest reserves. i don't know if that is what she is talking about when fed cuts rates it has to cut reduction or the feds fund rate will have no reaction whatsoever >> a lot to unpack in that conversation thank you, both, for joining us today. >> thank you >> thank you and be sure to tune in to "squawk alley" on friday the show will be speaking with judy shelton at 11:40 a.m. eastern time. still ahead, the dow, s&p 500 and the nasdaq breaking new records. brand-new highs and a brand-new survey from goldman sachs finds
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wall street inthks this rally has more room to run details coming up.
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welcome back let's head over to mike sante i santelli. >> pursuing happiness, contessa. we'll talk about the theme in a second one of the questions when the rally is going for a while, are investors getting too happy, too optimistic and too giddy and greedy not just yet
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the orange line is the number of bulls in the weekly minus the bears. this is the margin of bullishness right here what you see is it's up there. it's, obviously, well above where we were in december. but we were definitely higher back here towards the highs of early 2018 matter of fact, even last year higher so, i think the interpretation here is there are still room for investors professional and retail to get more invested before you have to worry that it's a major head wind for stocks >> one point where the bears are higher than the bulls? >> absolutely. now and then itp happens. usually a time when the market prepares to bottom because it is so hated and oversold. >> you're clear on the theme >> i am. pursuit of happiness >> the whole theme for the entire four dashboards they're all quotes from something called the declaration of independence. >> i am afraid i didn't pick up. if you put them back up, again
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>> didn't learn that in school i did but just didn't memorize it >> very good >> well done, mike i should have picked up on that. that was poor. my apologies in america. time for update with sue herera. i try to quote our constitution, but we don't have one. it's lose/lose on every level. >> there is a lot going on at this hour, everybody two bradley fighting vehicles are in place near the lincoln memorial where president trump will deliver a speech on july 4th. under the white house's direction, the pentagon is scrambling to arrange for a b2 stealth bomber and other warplanes to conduct flyovers during the celebration china's foreign ministry lashing back by remarks of britain's foreign secretary saying the territory's former colonel master had no right to
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weigh in on the city's affairs it accused jeremy hunt of indulging in the illusion of colonelism and in the response the uk summoned the ambassador saying it was unacceptable and inaccurate, end quote. britain's prince harry describing how fatherhood has helped him realize how important it is to have a good role model in life. he spoke at the youth mentoring summit in london >> as a father knowing my son will always be watching what i do, mimicking my behavior. maybe one day even following in my footsteps >> you are up to date. that is the news update this hour guys, have a wonderful fourth of july >> all about democracy and that's what jeremy hunt is saying, i believe. we'll see. >> absolutely. sue, thank you very much happy fourth of july to you, as well up next, we will ask b.e.t.
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founder bob johnson whether he thinks he will see more media mergers in the second half of the year we're back in a couple minutes
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♪ well a big way to end this july 3rd with record highs on the dow, the s&p and the nasdaq. the first half of 2019 has also se seen a lot of media mergers. what should investors expect in the second half of the year. joining us now bob johnson great to see you today, bob. >> thanks, contessa. delighted to be with you >> still a lot of room to see major mergers happen this year >> well, first there is a lot of money out there, i think, that would back them if the companies are willing to take on that amount of debt on the other hand, you know, the bigger getting bigger and the littler getting scared so, they have to look for a
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place to go if they're going to go some place and stay viable in the market but the big companies have to decide, are they willing to pay up for some of these other assets so, i think there's some things out there that people would buy. just not a lot of it and it's going to be expensive >> bob, what about content is that still expensive or do you think this rush of dollars into buying the best want tent has peaked and we'll start to see a plateau come down? >> you know, i'm a firm believer that content is king now, the question is, do you buy content to be part of a different channels like the streaming services that amazon or buy your own content back in essence by denying it to the netflix or hulus and bring it on to your own streaming service that disney plans to do.
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either way, is there going to be a cost there is going to be a cost by not getting the license fees or there's going to be a cost by creating original material i still believe that people don't watch just technology, they watch content they watch programming so, i think content is still king it's also a question of how do you promote and market that content so you get consumers to stick around you have to worry about the technology of identifying what engages your customer so they don't click off and click away and that's a challenge >> and, bob, so many content options now. you get overwhelmed with it in just one streaming service netflix, amazon prime video. you've got now at&t warner media that will launch a streaming service and all of these cost money. if it's a stand alone, $16, $17 which is what at&t says it is
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going to cost. big deal but you try to bundle those altogether and try to figure out content. is this a scenario where those who are late to the party miss out entirely if you missed being on cable in the '90s >> well, you know, i don't know if that's the case but what i do know is that there are several content companies out there that could be very attractive to somebody who want to bundle or somebody that want to add to their content. >> like what >> well, there's discovery out there which is, great assets you deal with john malone to get it or lion's gate and that kind of thing also amc which is a very attractive asset in terms of content creation and audience. also, i think there's an opportunity for what i call targeted content companies to find a place and build a brand and ultimately may be acquired we have one within our partnership with amc called a
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corn media which distributes british mysteries and dramas of course, umc urban movie channel. so, there are ways to create brands that could one day become arequired. but i think when you look at the landscape, the big companies that have merged, merged because, in this case, buying is better than trying to build. the question is, how many of those can survive in the world of choices where consumers are going to decide how many dollars they want to put for somewhat similarly related content. there's only so much library stuff that they haven't seen and original programming is both expensive and challenging to make >> bob, that being the case and with everybody seemingly focusing on scripted content and bundling these channels of tv series and movies together, i wonder if you think there is an opportunity in the middle.
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for example, the big companies selling these regional sports networks that seem like low valuations newsnetflix had a hard time getting into sit comes and orphans categories that still have some value in the future >> i believe there are orphan, what you call orphan content and i call it more targeted content or more emotionally engaging content that appeals to an audience that is willing to pay up for it. and as i mentioned british mysteries and drama is one of those. where high-income audience love that kind of content sports is another. but there's so much sports out there and sports tends to be live and if you want really quality sports, you want the live stuff, not the replays of old series or old games. and, so, to me, i think the challenge for the mergers is if
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i'm going to buy it, can i afford it and do i have to also augment it with significant original programming if i'm going to compete with the netflix of the world because once you start taking content away from netflix. netflix has no choice but to increase its 12 to $14 billion of content to be able to compete. the issue comes down to how much money can you throw at an audience that has a multiplicity of choices that they have to make to be satisfied that this director in the consumer world is of interest to them >> thank you for sharing your considerable expertise >> thank you, guys have a good fourth >> you, too. up next, a pot stock shake up the ceo of canopy growth unexpectedly leaves the company. he says unceremoniously.
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♪ shares of canopy growth ending the day higher after a morning slump. after its co-ceo bruce linton said he was fired from the canadian pot company
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what are you learning aditi. >> a big shake up with the public face behind the most publicly traded in the sector. his firing stems from consulation brands holding a majority of canopy's board seats as part of the deal between the two companies. that is a $4 billion deal he helped broker. he said he doesn't have any regrets. >> when you bring a big check and change the board, unless you're living in la la land always some perceived risk >> he doesn't think the company's disappointing earnings in q4 factored much into the decision co-ceo becomes canopy's sole ceo while they search for a replacement. >> aditi, thank you. still ahead, rally on. the s&p hitting yet another record at today's close. but can markets keep going we have new data from goldman sachs that may give you clues. that exclusive analysis coming
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♪ welcome back stocks closing at record highs on this shortened trading week goldman sachs releasing its marquise poll for july which found investors feeling more confident in the market. nearly half of those surveys have a bull or slightly bullish. tony head of market at goldman
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sachs. thanks for being here. >> good to be here >> what is your view of risky assets 35% came back saying slightly bullish. that was quite a big turn around from the previous month, right >> a reasonable pick up from the previous month what i find interesting is more than half of the respondents identify neutral or bearish the markets. as we make a higher high and new all-time high today a detectable level of investor sobriety in our client base. >> where we were with the result earlier and what might have resulted >> so the prior month actually recorded near record levels of bearish sentiment. when we know sentiment surveys get that one-sided or that extreme, it could also serve as a very good contra indicator which happened with the 7% rally in the month that followed >> in terms of positioning despite that kind of switch in sentiment that you saw over the course of the month, did we see
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people change their positions or ride out the bounce back >> this surprised me quite a bit. june saw some very powerful and significant moves in equity and fixed income and currency and commodity. if you look at the data, very little transfer or risk addition by the trading community in fact, only 13% so they added to the portfolio and underscores that investors are quite restrained in the risk taking. >> the consensus here at closing bell has been the optimism or the certainty that the fed will cut rates has led to the market performing like it did today when you did the survey, what is the view on the fed and what will happen? >> so, contessa, when you look at the survey data, 91% of our clients believe the fed will cut rates one time this year the bond market is telling you it will go three cuts of 25 basis points where the market's price but not
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full convergence less than 10% of our clients expect the fed to go that full 75 basis points. >> the clustering of expectations for where the s&p goes was drifting just a touch higher is that xwbasically safe to characterize >> yes i say the market performance during june and what followed ever since has lifted sentiment. i still think in the end we can look and identify a very clear wedge, michael, between the performance of the market and positioning sentiment of investors. i'll give you one data point the best start since 1987. best start in 22 years and yet we've seen near record outflows from etfs and mutual funds >> what do you think takes a significantly higher whether it's the short term over the next month or so or over the year what do investors want to see? >> friday looms large on this question and a payroll report on
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friday i think the market is clearly relaxed about the rate relief priced into the market and following a peaceful outcome to the g20 and the markets will ask quite a bit. and now the big question, the $64,000 question, how about growth the pattern of u.s. and economic growth has been very, very uneven the more reassurance you have that the labor market continues to perform well, we're at 50-year lows in the unemployment rate >> remember, you also asked about who would win the world cup. 14% said england it is notp haeni happening now >> more than half of oour clients expect the u.s. to win the world cup. now, again, in the spirit of contraindicators, you might want to slide a few chips between netherlands or swedens. >> i bet it is a bias set of people polled. >> we're a global company. >> i'm sure. but, anyway, listen.
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just as a side point, england just qualified for a different semi final >> is it cricket >> it is cricket you win some, you lose some. tony, thanks for joining us. >> thank you for having me. your wall street look ahead. the key things every investor needs to watch as we head to the enofd this shortened trading week "closing bell" will be right back ...all while helping you to and through retirement. can you help with these? we're more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help... voya. helping you to and through retirement. tell him we're flexible. don't worry. my dutch is ok. just ok? (in dutch) tell him we need this merger. (in dutch) it's happening..! just ok is not ok. especially when it comes to your network. at&t is america's best wireless network
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welcome back now for your wall street look ahead. the key things to watch out for. ylan >> a lot of people bracing for disappointment here. wall street is predicting a job market rebound in june from a dismal 75,000 jobs added in may to a forecast of 165,000 last month. but this morning's miss from adp makes that prediction sound rosy beyond headline number watch for wage growth. 3.1% last month and seems to slow down after a big jump in february that could factor into the fed's decision on whether to raise rates or cut them at the end of the month. back over to you >> all right, ylan thank you. agenthony former economist.
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what are you expecting friday? >> we'll get a weaker number and i'll tell you why. if you look at official unemployment claims those numbers are going higher it's not just a supply that the unemployment rate is so low they can't find workers we are starting to see sluggish demand for iworkers. hard to get that number pop down and the worst number, and the biggest plunge we've seen in this expansion they're getting softer on the wage numbers, we might see that number not as weak because less days in the month when you have less days and you think of monthly salary, that pushes the numbers weaker but stronger than last month. i'm looking for about 140,000. >> what do we need to see for the rate cut to be nailed at the end of the month or is that already the case >> i think the markets are pricing in 100%. unless you get a splashy number above 300,000, the federal reserve is going to argue that it's an insurance.
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not necessarily a panic cut, but just something in case something goes wrong anything near the consensus certainly if you get my budget of 140,000, the federal reserve could easily justify an insurance cut. >> would it be one or two cuts in that case you mentioned the pickup from very low levels. is there any fear that that is a real inflection point that will continue >> i don't think so. we still see that in the second quarter and third quarter. we'll get economic growth probably averaging 1.5% to 1.75%. it is slowing down from the first quarter. so, i think it's too early to say. people will argue the yield curve is inverting but even if you look at the ten year at a three-month, that's inverted for only 30 days and the research shows you have to have it. they'll do that more as rates. that's right >> a lot of times on tariffs a lot of the business owners i'm
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talking to are saying they're not hiring because they're uncertain how the trade situation will play out and resolve. is that a factor when we're looking at the job's numbers domestically >> you're spot on. all we have to do is look at business confidence. actually plunged not just in the united states, but really around the world. that is one of the reasons why overall capital spending is slowing down that uncertainty because of tariffs. but, again, as you get closer to the election, i think politicians will scramble to try to resolve this and that will be all set. >> it's a good point even when we heard what peter novarro had to say yesterday about agricultural products being sold yesterday and clearly there is an appeal there to the political base anthony, thank you for joining us >> great to see you, anthony. mike, record all-time closing highs for all three of the major indices closing at the high of the day. all sectors higher >> all sectors higher. full trading day friday. it is an interesting little
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interruption in this trend you have to say, look, the trend is up. i would call it traditional consumer growth companies are what are mostly taken here along with technology and i do think that what the market really wants to look for is that we're going to get relief from the fed but it's not because we acutely need it. therefore the job matters. >> the other point today big move lowering yields led by europe and actually, therefore, today's equity marketing rally was also led by europe 2.5% >> global valuations and i always keep looking at credit markets as a little bit of a check and make sure that is not telling you a different story. it's not right now conditions are pretty firm and i guess you couldn't really complain about all that. >> do you agree with anthony that only a very, very strong number would be bad for markets because it would -- >> i would think it would have to be super strong and probably have upward visions from prior months so you can wipe away last month's weak number.
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it's an unlikely scenario at this point >> interesting to look at volumes on friday and see who is around to go ahead and play the markets. >> of the three of us, we'll be around all day. that does it for the day today, contessa thank you for joining us a very happy fourth. that does it for the special edition of "closing bell."arks. this is "shark tank." ♪ whee! whee! my name is david mealy, and this is my wife dominique. "nique" for short. look at me! we live in tampa, florida, with our son austin, and we are expecting our little girl caroline in about two weeks. nique and i have been married for five years. i met her my very first weekend here in florida. i landed a job with actually two of the largest golf companies

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