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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 23, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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telling. and modernizing our organization all around the world our u.s. team did a fantastic job to manage through the liquidation of toys "r" us which is complete. we're building bigger programs for the holidays working for the retailers we've worked with for years. adding new retailers and new exciting categories. >> brian goldner sitting down with jim cramer. double-digit move in the stock. >> don't want to miss that that does it for closing bell. you don't want to miss fast money, begins right now. tonight on fast money the bit coin boom continues, the crypto currency taking another leg higher brian kelly says there's a new
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bold case for bit coin he will tell us what it is check out shares for alphabet. the conference call is underway as we speak. we have full team coverage fast money friend and tech guru is monitoring the conference call from the red phone in minneapolis. we'll check in with them in just a bit. normally alphabet will be our top story. as incredible as alphabet is, there was an even more stunning move in the market today that could have a bigger impact on your money the rate shock heard around the world. the 10-year yield surging to its highest level in months. this as everyone awaits the decision this week, the fed next week are we witnessing the potential end of free money around the world,
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and why aren't we seeing more of a reaction in the stock market >> that seems to be a total about face, seemingly out of nowhere. i would submit it reflects back to some of the comments president trump made over the last week. the fact that they're getting away from the stimulus policy that's been in place for quite some time is alarming. it's shocking that the markets don't seem to care people continue on their merry way. i don't think necessarily central bank mrs. steps. but policy changes >> ultimately if you think about central banks, they could be the most dangerous out there the most manipulative are in europe, if you look at what the boj has been doing, they're
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yielding on the long end this is the second largest bond market in the world. i actually think it's those other central banks, i think there's possibly a decent or call if a silver lining, i think this is going to put upward pressure on the end as it did two days ago, i think the central bank different shams will be stuck. >> basically, the big trade out there has been, listen, i can borrow cheaply some place else, japan, i can borrow in europe at less than one 1 it's been the huge trade out here, and as soon as that starts to unwind then you get these big repercussions. to answer your question, why the stock market didn't react? we will decent economic news here today we had one of the highest levels in a long time, you look at the city economic surprise index, it's below zero, if rates
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raise -- raise, and you're getting a strong economy that's not a bad thing >> i don't think the market cares about trade or the rates trump has put a lid on to powell the markets are trying to interpret whether or not powell's hands are tied. i think that's what's going on >> as far as i'm concerned the fed isn't in control of the long end of the curve the good news for banks here, and look how banks have responded to this. you've seen some deep into the curve. let's not get carried away, the curve is back into the two-year. if the curve responds. that's what it does. >> let's game this out, do we think that this is actually a
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steepening that is here to stay. that this rate dynamic is in play and the financials continue their run, if it's temporary, i would say the financials may not. >> i think it's temporary. i think our fed breathed a sigh of relief. maybe you'll see it for the next week, week and a half or so, i think a yield curve that is flattening will continue to flatten over time. i'm not convinced that it can help our yield curve steepen i don't necessarily think president trump's comments tie the hands of chairman powellp it did give president trump an embedded put if the market were to go lower to say, i told you in july, this fed was going to raise rates. >> it's a win win for him but not necessarily for the markets.
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>> i do think it's a win win for the markets. no, no, the market does not want a fed who's hands are tied #. >> it's because the economy is doing well there's no real threat from the trade war. i think he's painted him into a corner >> unless the fed is more boxed in because of that president trump tweet. >> i think right now our fed is an independent fed and the jury of proof will be that they're responding to pressure from the white house there's been enough pressure on the fed to say, hey, you know what, you're moving too fast, even though we have inflationary pressure, and i think we do, you can make an argument that you
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had fed powell twice last week you had a chance for him to stay in his lane, he got asked about trade tariffs. and the fed responds to fiscal policy, they don't lead it and i think that's what you're going to know about this fed >> the bigger concern is not the bond market, but the currency market this could be a reaction to it we saw the dollar drop in reverse today, if you get another strong dollar bought here, that's the biggest concern. the market can handle higher rates as long as there's growth. the market can't handle a higher dollar the higher it goes, the more risk in the system >> remember we did a tv show >> yes, we were doing power lunch. >> delivering alpha. >> some huge business people were there >> yes, what did i say >> you're always just in the
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gutter, out of the gutter and back into -- >> mary talked about the dollar. >> the thing that concerns them at jpmorgan is the speed with which currencies are moving. >> there you go. >> that's the biggest risk to the global market right now. >> i tell you what, if you look around the world, fundamentals, which currency would you say is trading off its mark if any of them, it's probably the yen. >> surging rates sent the banks soaring today. which our next guest called two weeks ago on this show >> we know it's their reversal that caused the reversal in the market, especially as tech started to falter. my hunch is, they're telling us we had all the selling for now, we're going to have. >> it was a great call, and chart master, conner werth is back at the plasma
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>> where are banks going now what does it mean for the markets. >> they're outperformance is a function of their proceeding underperformance here's a chart, no judgments or an notations by me i think one way to draw the lines is as follows. what we know is, you've come out of the apex of this well defined triangle a moment of indecision, and then it comes to life, that sort of breakout move. let's put that in the context of the bkx index. it hasn't quite broken out yet, but the presumption is it am back to the yield chart. this has broken out, the bet is the banks will, in terms of yields and where we sit in relation to the long term bottom there's a lot of prospect that this is a major head and
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shoulders bottom we're at the neck line and we've been stuck here. do we get above? i don't think so my hunch is we're going to stay in this formation still a bit longer billion attempting to go higher my real thinking is, rates can never get much above 315 and we've set the floor at 275, and that sometimes things are fair priced. and that's the case i believe with 10-year yields. and that's enough for banks to continue a bit higher. >> carter comes over, come on over, carter >> same with the 10-year yield, assuming the fid raises interest rates, it sounds like that spread will narrow, so in terms of the spread, i mean, is that a different chart that you can chart or do you have to -- >> there's a couple things
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presumptively there's more there. banks were one of the worst areas of the market. down 15% from their peek the s&p and tech have held up more in some respect it's a mean reversion trade. at some point it won't last much longer, but for now we have momentum, and again, it's a money center bank, it's jpmorgan, bank of america. it's not so much the regionals and super regionals. >> we have a lot of bank analysts coming on, they say, it's not about the money you suggest the market doesn't think that or doesn't care what is the difference between that and what you're see something. >> it all depends on your time frame, the time frame right now, is that these oversold sort of abandoned assets are being embraced after their initial earnings prints, they followed through
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dramatically because of rates. long term, yes, if rates were back at 16, banks don't profit in that kind of environment. i think the rates move a bit higher, back toward 3:05 we're at 2.95 today. enough to keep the momentum going. >> financials can keep the momentum going does this mean we're set up to test the january highs isn't it just math that we have the two biggest sectors doing okay >> you need the dead middle. we heard from staples, utilities, what we haven't heard from essentially are industrials, financials and health care. and they collectively would need to improve dramatically to exceed the highs of that friday january 26th >> so you're saying no >> carter, thank you >> thank you
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>> we're at the cornerstone macro. do you agree with carter in terms of the goal post >> i think when i look at the s&p 500 cash chart, i see draw downs since april. i'm looking at another draw down of that, it's going to be hard to do. i'm still looking for a draw down that gets us around the 100 day moving average i'm looking to sell the markets. >> i got to tell you, i don't think industrials have been getting us bad numbers, i think the market has been punishing them, where they are in the cycle of the economy again, you have gm reporting on wednesday. i think they're going to they're not going to blow you away all they have to do is reaffirm they're going to make 650 a share and you'll realize how strong this business is. that's the story with industrials. >> i think there's a major double-talk. we talked about it going back to '07. 30.5, 31 if you're looking for a cheap bank
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even tangible book and citi is trading at 1.62. a lot of people think citi is the cheapest one out there. >> coming up, check out shares of alphabet. the conference call is underway right now. is it a race for cash for tesla, reports circling that the electric vehicle maker may be in more trouble than we think the automaker disputed some of that bit coin is back surging to $8,000 there is a new case for bit coin what could it be live from times square in new york city. much more fast money right after this this scientist doesn't believe in luck. she believes in research. it can take more than 10 years to develop a single medication. and only 1 in 10,000 ever make it to market.
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welcome back to fast money check out shares of alphabet soaring after crushing earnings. in the past hour, it's added nearly $50 billion we have two of the four stocks reporting. netflix was down 9% from the time of its report alphabet is surging, so is google >> i think it's a buy. you look at revenue streams, it says google 109 billion. then you look at other bets. still not enough to move the
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needle no one complains about valuation. everyone thinks valuation is a problem, which is one you'll never run into a valuation problem. >> you're growing 20% a year on a multiple no one is more focused on innovation i think what's going on at youtube, improved roi's. this is another example of this company becoming a core part of our lives while we weren't paying attention i think they continueto do it. >> generally, i don't like buyer things that are up at all time highs and gapping higher people are concerned about europe, and what was going to happen with the changes there for advertising. it appears it impacted it positively now you have some investors that may be off side, plus, a really good fundamental tail wind i think you do buy this one. >> let's bring in gene munster,
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who's been monstering the conference call from prips what are the headlines so far in your view. >> you talk about that revenue growth i think that is the interesting piece. they grew at 14% in 2000 then it stepped up to 20, 23%. we've had this steady increase in the face of large numbers, what that means is investors can rest comfortably, knowing that google is the oxygen of the internet the second takeaway is tack. it moderated they said it could increase in the future the third piece to this is what
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they're doing around -- the greater regulation it didn't come up until the 5th question but he basically dodged the analyst, and said he doesn't know how they're going to navigate some of these potential changes. not a big negative on the last the clear takeaway is the revenue continues firmly in tact >> was that related to the android operating system or regulation in general? >> exactly >> that find -- when it comes to the gdpr, there was some thinking the larger platforms would see a larger benefit over the smaller platforms, did they address that at all? have they confirmed they've been a beneficiary of that? >> no, all he would say is that it was rolled out recently and said it remains determined d it's going to have a significant impact on google and its partnerships
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the two big questions, they were left largely unanswered in the q & a. >> you look at paid clicks up 58%. it seems they have amazon like concerns in terms of their dominance. why don't they get a valuation they deserve >> it comes back to growth is going to deteriorate every quarter they continue to show that they can keep growing, i think that multiple is going to inch up. that number has been a little
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below cost. >> what's your grade on the quarter at this point? >> so far a minus, reluctant given the call is going on, to give it a straight out a >> thank you, get back on that red phone. tim, what sort of multiple do you think? alphabet should have >> i wish gene was my professor in college >> you think he's inflating the grade? >> no, you know what here's what he said that i think is the most important. if there's a little margin compression, that's the most important thing for the company that people were questioning whether they could do it i think the impact on network is going to be real, and i don't think it matters, i think the bottom line is, these guys continue to dominate where they spit >> i think the fine leading into
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this, as b.k. touched on was the real unknown that's why you saw the stock pop, people got out of it thinking you were going to see a verbal addressment of it i do think you're seeing an over reaction in the pot, maybe it settles back in, it is amazing to me. if you would have bought a handful of knees names that are responsible for the profitability, you would have a killer portfolio i've traded in and out of these names, i should have held on to google, facebook and amazon. >> you're telling yourself to shut up. >> you mentioned the fact that some of the bigger platforms may have an easier time. the thing about the gdpr rules, they impact everybody. so everybody's going to have the same type of struggle, companies like facebook and alphabet will
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be able to absorb those costs a lot better >> give him a 20 multiple, you have a $4400 stock which is higher than it is now. >> coming up, more on alphabet we'll get the first reaction from a number of analysts. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> up in the sky it's a bird, it's a plane. >> no, it's just bit coin and something happened today that suggests there could be more gains to come. >> one surging industrial is up 9% in one month. and guy adami says it's going even higher. he'll give you the name in his pitch when fast money returns. you always pay your insurance on time.
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highest level since the end of may. up over 30% since bottoming the end of june. a bit coin etf was filed on june 26th this is a reapplication new form of an old one that was rejected last year, it has some bells and whistles but is essentially the old one. the sec takes 45 days to make a decision a lot of people are assuming we'll get a decision on or before august 15th or so a positive verdict would lead to another runup on bit coin. i don't think so i've interviewed the chairman of the sec and they've made it clear to me, they are taking a go slow approach on the whole bitcoin thing. they're not going do take the
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risk of being called up on charges in front of congress my guess is that the sec will not deny the request, but they will extend the comment period they will cite their previous security concerns about break-ins and threats of wallets. by the way, there's also some very real custodian questions that have not been settled here, other parts of the bitcoin juggernaut keep rolling on back to you, melissa >> thank you, bob at the new york stock exchange. is the bit coin rally here to say? >> b.k. hopes so he's making his way over to the plaza to give us the latest. >> i hope so i also hope there's an etf i think the chances of etf in
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2011 are relatively low. there are quite a few things, that doesn't stop speculation on that that's one reason we've seen this bottoming process here. institutions are starting to get serious. people in december didn't like the price, they're coming back saying, this is not going away we need to understand what it is, coin base has secured a $20 billion hedge fund for their custody service. what are the institutions saying why do i care and how does bit coin fit in? bk has a chart for you here. this outlines the different types of web we had web 1.0 that was the beginning that was a big global library,
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everything in books got dumped into a giant database we call the internet then we have web 2.0 they gave you a global publishing platform. you could create content and put it into that giant database we call the internet. and here we are in web 3.0, we're removing from a database to a data bank, what does that mean the date that that is in the internet is valuable we found that out. look at googles earnings, you think they earned that off of selling ads? they're selling data, and monetizing the ads web 3.0 is the new internet, and improved internet where the data can be monetized how do you send that across the internet with a crypto currency institutions are seeing how this fits into a portfolio of web 3.0 stocks >> i agree i'm also a trader. i feel the reason bit coin is
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higher, because people are more comfortable buying at 7800 than 6000 >> the more value becomes, the more value becomes that's true for bit coin and other currencies >> the three reasons you said this is here to stay, those are the same reasons you could have said five months ago or in december why are they more real today versus before, when bitcoin was on a decline >> the madness of crowds is something we try to figure out all the time i would suggest five months ago we had head winds, we had a lot of selling there were big sellers out there, that appears to be over, now you've had this positive news flow. i talked about it when we were at 5800, i was shocked that people weren't getting it.
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sometimes it takes a while for people to get it >> it's not just crypto that's surging. check out cannabis in the green today. the stock price is $17 closed today at $29. acreage holdings, the pot business backed by john combiner closed a 1$119 million funding round and plans to go public >> a guy on their board sat right next to me and i think there's going to be a reality check that a lot of these great companies and states need to do commerce again, u.s. listing, big deal last friday. dave knows when that deal this is a space where you have the global story, rumors that
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there's a medical shortage in australia. right now, between the capital markets activity, the true end demand and the legislative process, the asset class is going higher. >> gw pharma, we reported on this a while back. we can make all the marijuana jokes you want about them going higher the reality is -- >> still sounds like a toilet to me but. >> noted >> the science behind this works, and people are starting to understand it they're realizing it's going to disrupt farma. >> can we just call it cannabis. it incorporates the full implications of what's going on. >> medical and recreationally. >> if you're just joining us, alphabet hitting an all time high, the one thing about the
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stock that has everyone scrambling is another capitalace st rju around the corner? we'll explain.
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street journal, that sparked the selloff. essentially, tesla had sent a buyout to some of its flairs key components for tesla you look at that report, people said, what's interesting is the wording that suggests tesla was linking those efforts to be profitable in the second half of this year. tesla responded by saying, we asked fewer than 10 suppliers for a reduction in total capex product spend that began in 2016 but are still not complete any changes with these suppliers would improve our future cashflows, but not impact our ability to achieve profit
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ability in the third quarter we're not going to talk about the stock here, we're going to talk about the tesla bonds, the reason we're showing you the tesla bonds is because that's what worries people, when you start talking about the ability to improve your profitability through these negotiations, that's what's spooked not only the tesla stock investors, but also the bond investors you saw that with the move we see in the bond yields rising up as bond investors are clearly worried. tesla reports earnings on august 1st, i talked with a number of people in the auto industry. almost everyone says the same thing, this is common between automakers and suppliers sometimes it can be vicious, rarely do they spill out into the public it's the fact that this one went public and because of this suggestion
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or the wording linking this to profitability, that's why this has become a story today >> did tesla show you the memo itself >> no, was it a platter of interpretation i guess they're not going to -- >> i guess they're not going to comment. >> i have not seen the memo itself, it is the wording there, one person who has seen the memo said, i'm not sure i would have worded it that way they said, this is common between automakers and their suppliers, this is not a tesla specific issue >> phil was showing us the bonds, the yields on tesla, they have a lot of convertibles coming due 9$920 million in converts next month, if the stock isn't at
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359.87 >> i think the credit markets have been the greatest tell, i will say, yes, it's easy to make a lot out of is this article one interpretation from the street said, we thought the language applied that it was essential that the suppliers cut a deal. that's what got them more concerned. the credit supply terms are critical to automakers balance sheets >> elan musk says he's a carmaker now we wanted him to be a technology company. i thought today was constructive closing above 300 was constructive today what i'm fearful of is what you just said, we have to raise money, they have to raise money. this is going to take place whether the bulls like it or not, there's got to be a race.
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>> i think he's trying to pull every string. >> they should be able theoretically. >> over and over again you. >> think that if the company went out to market overnight -- that they wouldn't be able to raise money. >> i think they would be able to raise money -- >> the market is still open to them >> we had one little spike here in the bonds nobody thinks this is a profit that's supposed to be making a profit you're buying elan musk. >> he wants to be a car company, though that's the problem >> what's the problem with being a car company? >> we don't want it to be a gm multiple >> all i know is, here's the point -- look at the top holders in the stock, they're not short term people. they're in it for the long hall, ron said he wants to make 4, 5
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times the money on it. >> my concern would be, would the stock react as well as it has in the past. i think the fact that it continues to make lower highs is concerning i think we all may agree with that 280 is the level it wants to gravitate toward >> we'll hear from the street, and get instant reaction >> guy getting ready to pitch one to the radar an industrial name that's up 10% in just the past month, the name and much more. you always pay your insurance on time.
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in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. welcome back to fast money time for an instant replay back in march, guy stepped up to the plate to pitch cleveland cliffs >> it's too compelling to ignore, and there's a high short interest what does that mean? i don't think president trump is going to back down from this tariff thing for quite some time which means the shorts in the sector are going to be forced to cover. the stock closed at 7.75 credit suisse just put a price target >> guy was right about. >> since that call, cleveland kwlifs up 40%.
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>> we didn't really crush it, we got it right in retrospect, but the steels were under a lot of pressure there march into april. they're probably being aggressive, the quarter was good, i say stay with all the steel names. >> cleveland cliffs was a home run. give us another pitch? >> it's all baseball, right? >> when i was a kid. i was a kid once, hard to believe, i liked playing with trains, lionel trains. if you look now, csx all time high norfolk southern all time high what do you do you go young stream. slide it, earl you go to trinity industries, they service the rail sector, they report after the close on the 25th 9 times trailing, 20 times forward.
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the economy continues to grow, what does it mean? rail demand continues to grow. i think it's going to show itself this quarter. what does it mean? they believe in their company. i think they've paid a dividend the last 217 quarters, great balance sheet if you believe that the economy is doing better if the railroads are telling you something, have you to go down stream i'm sure we have a chart somewhere, we're bouncing up against levels we last saw right around here. sorry about that, folks. there you go what do i think is going to happen we're going to take out that previous high in a meaningful way. this stock has a $40 handle on it >> when you talk about going downstream, this is a marketplace that rewards the leaders.
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why do you think it's not going to be that case with the stock this time. you have to go back in their history and see they have a history of earnings surprises. the market options are pricing in at a 6 1/2 move i would bet that is to the upside i think the environment we find ourself lends this stock to go higher into and post earnings. >> no more questions, time to vote >> are you buying guy's pitch on this >> i do like the technicals looking down on my computer. i do believe it can move higher from here. >> i think this thing is a buy i started the show talking about this, the economy is getting better, you buy trinity.
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>> i hate to do this my friend, and you are my friend. 23 there's an industry that has a bull's eye on its back, i think it's these guys. it's going to be a difficult time if we stay on these tracks. i'm sorry. >> two buys, one sell. the desk has spoken. we want to know if you are buying guy's pitch for trinity the stock is up more than 3% right now 37 vote on our twitter poll, we have the results later on in the show, plus, alphabet is at an all time high let's get a sneak peak into mad m ney. jiis sitting down with the hasbro ceo in the meantime, much more fast money still ahead. highest in investor satisfaction with full service brokerage firms...again. and online equity trades are only $4.95... i mean you can't have low cost
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finally, dan nooiz, we believe q 2 advertising were healthy in a good barometer of potential strength heading into 2017 and 2019 fielding questions about a range of topics. take a listen. >> i think we're investing for the long run we're definitely seeing traction a lot of effort from a product and technology standpoint, we're definitely there and appreciate it, it's been a lot about investing in our go to market efforts. and as we do it, we're developing our in house strengths, we're partnering, those things are beginning to pay dividends. >> you didn't hear a lot of hard numbers there, he did mention some wins here, he mentioned dominos, price waterhouse, target is migrating key areas of its business to google cloud 34r59 form as well
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we know cloud services do demand big up front investments >> well ahead of the street, which was at 4.2 billion melissa, back to you >> in the past, google has bee punished for their capex they are spending a lot of -- they have spent a lot in capex this time around >> we don't care about margin. somewhere you have to start thinking about some of the guys that are giving credit in cloud. microsoft, but i think this is a very important listen to those clients, they're coming >> is this a good read through for the microsofts of the world, the crm's? >> anything you can apply cloud to, that's something that's intangib intangible, that everyone overestimates. i think it's a good read through for the rest of the space. >> if there's a risk, it's that there are a lot of competitors now in the cloud space to your point there may be some market compression the market doesn't care about it
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today. i don't want to worry about this tomorrow facebook, as we mention before, up more than 1% on after hours sessions fresh all time high. mike is in san francisco with the action hey, mike. >> the options markets implying a move of 5 1/2% for facebook by the end of the week. perhaps that's not surprising given the market cap of the company, at over 600 billion where we saw most of the activity was in the weekly 215 and 220 calls. most of that was the result of buys they were paying anywhere from 150 to 1.75 for that that suggests the options market is implying. targeting that 220 or higher
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price by the end of the week >> thanks for that, mike >> guy, what we saw with netflix, we thought, the rest of the thing will trade along with it but it traded idiosyncratically, which is a good thing. >> will the halo be stronger >> it was netflix specific and netflix got punished the rest of these stocks have traded in kind this dragup, it shouldn't have any effect on netflix, the extent people put these things in a bucket, it gives florida netflix a bucket they didn't get that close maybe netflix is impervious as une, na >>p xtfil trades (indistinguishable muttering) that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh.
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you know, to play toni braxton would be an insult to toni braxton instead, it is celine dion time. ♪ all by myself >> i know what it -- >> that's a ripoff >> it's a new song >> good song >> time for the final trade? mlp, good on tax deductions. >> you know what
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bond market moved today, banks look good, regional banks look excellent. >> tesla, stay with it >> god awful >> if you're feeling bad >> no, i feel great. that will get you done >> see you back you back tomorr. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want the make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not necessarily to entertain, but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc, or tweet me @jimcramer. the

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