either way the stock goes. >> i think in all these trades, xlk, you look for a bit of a bounce there. >> looks like our time has expired. see you back here next friday. don't go anywhere. "mad money with jim cramer" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to msae you some money. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. you, you need to be prepared for the kind of decline that comes from a rate hike. something that many in the stock
market clearly aren't ready for. and that was what today's decline was all about, the dow tumbling 394 points. nasdaq tumbling 2.54%. the rate hike's coming. perhaps as soon as the feds' meeting later this month. and i think you need to be ready for cash when it does, because i don't think this selloff's over. you need to understand the risk world here. it is true. it could hold steady. you could miss 2%, 3%, 4% rally. but considering that janet yellen and stanley fisher talked openly of the need to raise rates. and then eric rosengreen joined the course. i think the risk is too great to
risk a possible 2% gain. i don't know why you would want to do it. we've been lulled into accepting the proposed brexit volatility is gone. that, too, concerns me. when it comes back as it did today, it's pretty obvious investors aren't prepared. you know what they do, they panic. nobody ever made a dime panicking. i don't want to you panic, that's why you need to be prepared. you can follow along with my charitable trust, a highly unusual 20% level. we chose to sell some of our absolute favorite stocks, including procter & gamble. being prepared means selling or trimming not just the stocks you're indifferent to but even the stocks you like, betting you can buy them back at a lower level. you've heard my miranda warning.
i'd like to risk that than when the rates were raised in december. the market took a quick hit and then got crushed. it was much worse than what happened today. the big difference now and then is this most people knew and eck peck the -- expected a rate hike back then. this time, far too few people seem to be prepared. many followers say my view's based on nothing, given how weak the data's been of late. but i'm telling you, the fed is only playing lip service to the data. they're concerned that our rates are at uncertain lows. the fed stayed on hold once because of the bear market in china, last august. then they did it once because it was the collapse in oil.
there doesn't seem to be anything overseas staying their hand this time. so i think you need toe accept it, act accordingly, and i get that another cohort of investors are way too sanguine. trust me when i say that you'll hear talk of a fed-induced recession with every piece of weak data going forward. there, you've heard me. now let's go to the game plan. why don't we start were an event i think will nail everything home, a speech by dennis lockhart. i expect him to say we need a hike and we need it now. this guy's wanted to tighten even when it could have been catastrophic to raise rates. you can only imagine how he feels about it now. it can get worse. neil cakashkari speaks.
the last time we heard from neel was at jackson hole. what happens if he says we need one anyway? forewarns is forearmed. after the close, united natural foods. i think it's too high. i believe it will reflect that in the reports. if you want to bottom fish in that beleaguered universe, at least wait until you hear what they say. the selloff started when the european central bank chose basically to do nothing, nothing aggressive to stimulate their economy. i think it's because things are better over there. but we have german inflation numbers coming out tuesday morning, and if these figures are at all stronger, we will have the wind of recession in our faces. i've been consistent with what
i've said in the show. i think when you're walking through a mine field as we are when we get closer and closer to the fed meeting, it pays to know where the mines are. that's what i do. if you ask me what's become among the most problematic sectors, i would say it's the retail and restaurant group. i'm always looking for ways to take the temperature of the consumer. how could it be that we get earnings from crack are barrel that studded along the highways of the u.s. it's at $147 right now it would ring a little louder. one other important piece of information. citi. that's right. citi group will tell its story at an analyst meeting wednesday. if you think the fed's going to raise rates, the biggest winners among the fewest, will be the banks. and my charitable trust owns
shares in citi as a hedge. the regulators now love it. they used to hate it. if the stock goes higher that day after the analyst meeting, that could be an important tell about how the market's feeling about the possibilities of not just one hike but maybe two before the year ends. thursday's a big earnings day of the week. it's oracle day. it's this gigantic software company, it's buying net sweep. and before you hear why they think it makes sense, you can expect sales reports from workday and salesforce.com. i think oracle could hurt more than help the tech group, especially after the sales force numbers. remember how i said there's a lot of concern among some fed members about whether inflation's kicking up. we have double barrel reports. and given the proximity of the fed meeting, these may be the last hope that no action will be
taken. although in the end, i think their minds are made up. september's a go, which leads to friday itself, okay? i think that by then everyone will know what i'm telling you now and what i've been saying all week, which is that we're on the verge of a hike. by this point, there will be almost universal concern that the fed will lower the boom on september 21st. i urge you not to buy anything. we were prepped for that hike and got crushed. history can repeat itself. here's the bottom line. please don't blame the messenger. i want you to be prepared ahead of the fed move. that's all i'm saying. that means taking evasive action because the reward isn't worth the risk. i say wait, wait for another better time to buy. and you want some cash to be ready to take advantage when that time comes. alex in california. alex. >> caller: ba, ba, ba, boo-yah,
cramer. >> good to have you on the show, what's going on. >> caller: i have a stock question. stock is scism ni ifinizar. and who's the best of breed? >> they did say communications equipment was strong. the proper read is cisco, that is the one we'll buy, but finizar is too late. time to be a little cautious here. with the fed up to bat, we could see some serious fireworks. no reason to leave yourself exposed to the action. don't like the market ahead of a rate hike. has the train left the station in or maybe it's time to hop aboard. i'm playing conductor. then worries over retail continue to plague this market, here's one that's the only one that's any good.
ollie's bargain market? i've got a ceo, don't miss my exclusive interview with twilio. i suggest you stick with cramer. don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. tweet cramer, #mad tweets. send jim an e-mail at madmoney.cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. it's not just a car... it's your daily retreat. go ahead, spoil yourself.
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it's time to talk about the improbable rally in the railroads! because until today's market wide washout, these were some of the strongest stocks out there. at the end of january i told you after being hammered for over a year, enough was enough. the rails were finally worth buying, especially norfolk southern and csx, because even
with their main cargo, coal, in secular decline, they represent a good value. i really nailed that call, since it turned out to be very close to the bottom for the whole group. csx and norfolk southern are up. and just since the end of june, csx, norfolk southern and union pacific are up 6%, even ksu has gained 3%. so what is behind the tremendous rally in the railroad names? a remarkable reversal since this market got hit 15 months. and more important, can these stocks continue to run? first and foremost, the expectation got so low that at last they could be beaten. remember the rails are rebounding in the wake of hideous declines and they are still off their highs of 2014. they kept slashing their
estimates, all the way down. and by the beginning of the year, the estimates earnings had been cut to the bone allowing the companies to meet or beat the numbers rather than missing them, even though the railroads are still posting weaker than expected revenues, they're still able to deliver earnings beating. wall street got too negative. second, what else has been driving these relatively robust earnings per share numbers? all the major rails bought back substantial amounts of their own stock when their share prices were well at lows. and that comes on the heels of heavy repurchases last year. when you shrink the number of shares you're increasing the earnings per share, and this can put a floor. and third, the rails were giving you a strong dividend. after january lows, every stock in the group except ksu had in excess of 3.3%. these payouts were perfectly
safe. that was enough to cover dividend earnings twice over. fourth, investors have got and lot more bullish on the economy than they were in january. and since the railroads represent the backbone of commerce they've benefitted enormously. when money managers believe we're in an economic ex-spann b they buy hand over fist. so what do we do with these stocks now that they've experienced such an epic run. you need to look at two things. these are the key metric.
one is the volume of cargo that they're moving, and the other is the price they're getting on that volume. those are the two metrics of rails. at union pacific, the declines have accelerated versus last year, the volumes are down 9% year-to-date. coal down 27%. the only bright spot here is that the revenue per car, the key metric on pricing was only down 2% versus a 6% decline before. on the other hand, they're seeing double-digit declines in revenue per car for automobiles. whoa. bad sign. csx is the same thing. revenues, declines, accelerating from last year. csx has a ton of coal exposure, and the coal volumes are down 32% for the year. just like union pacific,
pricing's getting a bit less bad. csx down 3% versus 9% the previous quarter. see the pattern? the auto business is holding up. not too great, but okay. how about norfolk southern? their revenues are down 8% for 2016, better than 2015. but volumes are getting worse for norfolk southern, worse than the 2.6% decline in 2015. norfolk southern's revenue per car dropped just by 3%. much better than 7% last year. the trajectory's down. as for kansas city, their volumes are down by about the same. notice all these numbers are bad. however, kansas city southern's automobile business isn't just
bad, it's been crushed. revenue per car down 16%. meaning they're making a lot less from their automobile cargos. so business is still pretty weak. although the recent expansion in the panama canal should start to help with cargos. and there's been an increase in coal from china. they're buying a lot from us. one of the reasons why the baltic freight's -- when the economy starts to improve, they are going to make a killing, but if you believe we could be headed toward a slow down, that means pain will continue. the yields are less attractive, and the fed could be tightening in the very near future. so listen up. let me give you the bottom line.
the railroads have roared higher this year, because the expectations got too low, and the stocks became too cheap. and the dividend yields too big. however, listen. i don't think this rally is sustainable, given the fundamentals i just described. they are far from strong. the stocks are no longer cheap. the dividends are a lot less impressive. i say it is here right here rate now to ring the register on all the rails after a magnificent run. we can revisit them at lower prices. ron in new jersey. >> caller: hey, jim, how are you. >> i am good, how about you? >> caller: very good. basically what i was calling about was you had mentioned, recommended, i guess, alcoa. >> yes. >> caller: a number of times, and now with this reverse split, i was a little concerned in terms of the fact that that usually means bad feelings. >> you're absolutely right. that is the usual meaning.
my charitable trust which you can follow, you've got to read what we're saying about this. that reverse split is to try to keep both companies in the s&p, because the s&p doesn't like stocks that are below five. it is khai mayor cal. we think the valuation of the proprietary, we think it is worth almost the whole price of the company. i think that's the way it is. it's a bad market. much more "mad money" ahead. in a world of brick and mortar that's seen their outlook threatened, how does ollie's bargain market fare. and are investors still shopping, with many on the sale rack, i'll tell you what is to happen this sector to see a turn
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at a time when the dollar stores are languishing in the doghouse after some truly hideous numbers, what are we supposed to make of a discount retailer that's shooting the lights out? i'm talking about ollie's discount outlet holdings, it sells brand name goods, including everything from household goods, power tools, food at cut rate prices. they report add tremendous quarter. and the stock is now up at an astounding 48% year-to-date. that's an outstanding run. i think the company's still got a lot going for it.
consumers may not be trading down to the dollar stores, but they adore this off-price model. and selling at a 70% discount to what you'd pay at a department store, that's right, i said 7-0 i was leery that their private equity backer, and i wanted to wait for a pull back from their selling before you did any buying. since then, the equity overhang has been taken care of, so we can now focus on what's working here, and the answer is everything. ollie's has a terrific business model. not only do they have off-priced merchandise bought from other retailers, it only costs about $1 million for them to set up an
any location. they can generate $3.7 million per year. you know from "get rich carefully" how much i look for those situations. they have about 200 stores, east of the mississippi river. and the company started moving into a gigantic state like florida this year. look where they're located. it's like when dollar general hadn't been to california yet. when they say they think they can expand, i'm inclined to believe them. and they've got a great growth track record. from 2010 to 2015, they added 120 new net stores and entered nine knew states. even without investing in any distribution centers, imagine if they can get to at least 400
stores? that makes them the textbook example of the story that wall street adores. they've already got a successful concept. the growth here could be fabulous. and that's why the stocks are on fire. now the last time i told you about ollie's, there was one major true back at the time, ccmp, capital advisers, still owned 59% of the company. now i never like to see that level of private equity ownership, because it means you can get absolutely slammed by a tsunami of selling as these guys decide to take profits, which is really their business, by the way. sure enough, ollie's has gotten hit with a wave of private equity sales. on june 6, ollie's did more than a $12 million secondary. stock tanked down 3.2% the next day. two days a the sweep. they did another block sale.
like clockwork, the stock sank another 3.2%. the private equity investors from ccmp, they've now cleared out. that last block sale represented the remainder of the position in ollie's, which means you no longer have to worry about getting killed. knifed in the back by your fellow shareholders if you own the stock. beyond that, i find ollie's to be encouraging. i invited the ceo to be on the show, he's so terrific. the ceo believes it's got more room to run. more important, without the private equity overhang we can focus on how well this company's doing, and ollie's is doing very well indeed. ollie's delivered off 18% basis.
steady 3.5% same-store sale growth. even better, ollie's raised its revenue forecast. and only a handful of retailers have been able to do that. health and beauty, candy, food, housewares and pets. and the quarter improved with each month better than the last, oh, boy, this was some call. what else. ollie's still plans on opening 28 to 32 new stores. put it all together, and it's no wonder it jumped. but after the big block sale earlier this week, ollie's is trading back to where it was before reporting. getting that whole quarter for
pre, that mea free. as far as i'm concerned, it means you can start buying this stock right into the selloff i expect between here and the fed meeting. that said, ollie's isn't cheap, trading over 24 times next year's estimates, but ollie's has a heck of a lot more growth potential. most of those have saturated the country. i told you that ollie's has barely touched the company. i have been a fan for months. we've been waiting for that equity sponsor to finish selling, and as of tuesday, the pesky equity guys are out. the latest block sale has pushed the stock where it was. if this is the best retailer i can find, that doesn't say much about retail right now, but i think it does say something
about ollie's, it's the one that's still working in a difficult retail environment, specifically, and through the entire market in general. now there is much more "mad money" ahead. from uber to netflix, i have a company that's powering things every day. i'll have an interview with the ceo of twilio. you like companies like dollar tree, what do they have to do to turn it around? if it's a thank god it's friday edition of the lightning round. it's a very specific moment, the launch window. we have to be very precise. if we're not ready when the planets are perfectly aligned, that's it. we need really tight temperature controls. engineering, aerodynamics- a split second too long could mean scrapping it all and starting over. propulsion, structural analysis-
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we get hit with a big market hch wide selloff like we had today sometimes it's an opportunity to start looking at the stocks with the biggest winners through a rare moment of weakness that has nothing to do with the companies themselves. take twilio, it's aiming to do for communications what amazon web services did for storage. they make it incredibly easy to manage communication processes via the cloud. they want you to see twilio as your one-stop shop for text messages and even video.
for example, when uber sends you that text message letting you know that your driver's arrived, that's them! that's twilio. what's happening is twilio verifying your phone number to make sure your actions are coming from you. ever since it became public it's soaring 92%. i still like it very much. now when twilio reported its first quarter, the company announced new capabilities who help them win new -- i spoke with the ceo of twilio. i am delighted to have mr. lawson on "mad money." thank you so much. have a seat. thank you. i look at your conference call, which is one of the most transparent of all that i've ever seen and i love that. our mission is to fuel the
future of communications. big claim, you doing it? ? that's right. that's our goal. and it's a long road to get there, and that road is going to be an interesting bunch but that's our mission. we see ourselves and the world overall at the earliest days of a transition of our communications from a legacy-based hardware in copper wires, into a future which is software. as such, the software developers of the world are going to build that future. and we're here to power their ideas, their dreams, all the applications that they're building, but that's a tall order. >> this is your first time on tv. let's talk about nordstrom. it's a fabulous website. why are they different? and you power it. >> nordstrom is this amazing use case. they want their personal shoppers to be able to text with their customers. they didn't want to say hey, every salesperson use your phone and text with customers because
it's a lot of privacy and things like that. so they created an app. every employee has the app and a twilio phone number. and they can use that app and it keeps all the customer's information private. they don't get the phone number. and it keeps the personal shopper private. and they can integrate it with crm systems so all that activity is tracked and they can recommend you great products that you'd be likely to buy. because it's all integrated. >> a bricks and mortar app has an edge because of you. >> every company wants to compete. and part of how you build great software is having building blocks and having these composable services, whether they are compute and storage like amazon or storage like twilio, these are the fundamental building blocks that we use every day.
>> you have a thing called usage-based revenue model. that's new for me. i was shocked to see, when your customers do well, you do well. explain that to people. it's so exciting. >> this is a unique part of our business model. we charge a very small amount of money. i'm talking about a penny or fraction of a penny, right? but the thing is those frabsing build up. it starts off very small. customers are experimenting, identify greating on a new idea. you need low barriers. if you need to spend a million bucks right up front, you get very few. it makes it cost-effective for a company to say we have a new idea. let's build it in a very quick way, get it out there. if customers love it, great, if it doesn't work, we can shut
that experiment down, because we didn't spend a lot of money building it. it also aligns our success with our customer's success. this isn't the old enterprise software model. you cut me $10 million check and you never implement the software or hardware. >> that was the way. >> theis is better for our customers. we have to focus on customers to be successful ourselves. >> what would uber be like without your company? >> i think the magical thing about uber is how great the customer experience is. we take for granted that, you know, when you call the driver inside that app, the drive just answers the phone and says hey, jim, where are you? you say i'm on the corner, i'll be right there. but think about what that would have been ten, 15 years ago.
i call a 1-800 number, tell us your mom's dog's baby name to authenticate yourself. they've gotten rid of all that. >> because of your company. >> and because you can integrate the context of what you're trying to get done. it noknows where you're trying go. and we see that as a powerful future of what software's going to do to make our communications more relevant in the fullness of time. >> and also netflix, facebook of people are worried about concentration. you seem to have everybody. no one else seems to be doing what you're doing. >> we did, you know, i think my perspective as a software developer, we're a company by developers for developers, by meant that we had a unique perspective on communicationcom. if you think about it, for 100
years, the industry has been digging ditches and launching satellites. they're good at those things, but those are the opposite of software, which is listening to your customer, adapting the road map constantly. we ship updates to our production systems over 30 times a day. >> wow. >> that's the agility, the pace at which software moves as opposed to the legacy approach. >> one last thing, one, one, one, from day one, you were involved with 111. request y can you explain that? what do they do just for the companies. >> the 1% pledge is an important part of our company. we've committed 1% of our pre-ipo revenue to sustainably
funded twilio.org to improve w society. there's so many out there that nonprofits were finding these great ways to use communications to improve the world. crisis text line. an amazing organization that has an sms-based hotline for people who are experiencing emotional stress, suicide prevention, and you can text 741741 and it's staffed 24/7 with volunteers, and they are constantly helping people with need. and we're excited to partner with them to help them see their mission through to help people in need and using our technology. >> that is very important for all of us. that's jeff lawson, founder, chairman and ceo of twilio. the market's going down, nothing to do with twilio. maybe this is the way you get in. back after the break.
how can good paying jobs disappear? it's what the national debt could do to our economy. an an an an an an an an a /* to secure our future. pln remember here at ally, nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. who's with me? i'm in. i'm in. i'm in. i'm in. ♪ ♪ one, two, - wait, wait. wait - where's tina?
and then the lightning round is over, are you ready, ski daddy. time for the lightning round. starting with carl in alaska. >> caller: boo-yah from our largest state in the union. >> you bet, man. what's shakin'. >> caller: jim, i've been watching you for 25 years. when you started. >> thank you. >> caller: i told them you can call me anytime up here in alaska. anyway, jim, i'm calling about semi conductors. >> i like the ratio. a lot of semis are coming down. let's have the dollar down side first. margie in washington. >> caller: hi, jim. >> how are you? >> caller: fine. black rock. >> it's a really, really good company. had a real big spike this week. i think it's got room to decline before you have to pull the
trigger. kathryn in ohio, kathryn. >> caller: mr. cramer. >> yes. >> caller: i'm a big fan. i'm reading your book "sane investing." cabella's. >> i don't really care for retail. i like to shop there, retail's not a good place to be right now. stephen in texas. >> caller: yes, sir, thank you. you had a segment about charts, and you said when you see this distinctive head and shoulders, not to ignore that. >> i'm staying away from the steel stocks. they had a big spike now they're coming down. that's a little dicey for me. let's go to mike in florida. mike. >> caller: jimbo, acacia. >> their is is a red hot stock.
you let the whole market take it down to a level where it might have been before it reported that great quarter and then you do pull the trigger. tom in pennsylvania. >> caller: hi, jim, first time caller from elwood city, pennsylvania. i wanted to begin by thanking you for your reading list in world war ii magazine last year. >> geez, you read that. thank you so much for saying that. that was a fun piece for me to write. that's my true passion. >> caller: my stock is dyna vax. >> that is the conclusion of the lightning round. the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade.
when they dcome back down fr the high valuations i would steer clear. clean up in aisle six. an lebron james-approved pizza chain. hey, good job taking mark sanchez in your fantasy draft. >> not true, not true! next caller! >> it's all a big battle ground. get me? >> oh, come on. children. >> no, is it bad? this is how you don't get good guests on anymore. well, there's a week that was. e. kid's a natural.
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this market cannot have a solid rally as long as we keep losing retail, and we're losing retail big time. the sudden decline is untenable. and unless you believe the whole sector's resting before its next move higher, which sounds like wishful thinking to me, then you should be concerned too. let me break it down. first the retailers have found themselves with headwinds that
are unbeatable. the fastest retail i travel is ulta. when you're trading at 35 times the earnings, you need to blow away the numbers, trounce them. it didn't happen. the second and third strongest momentum names, dollar tree and dollar general practically collapsed. they missed by miles and dollar general had to cut its guidance because of competition. it is just disastrous. then there's the players like l brands, footlocker and dick's. i still like them, but i'm wary, because they can be pulled down by the rest of the group. trades like a giant etf. we thought that the safest sector was housing-related. but the stocks of home depot and lowe's have been crushed, in part because of hd supply spun
out of home depot, but risk from tractor supply. nevertheless, no one cares for now. how about discounters and closeouts. we just bought some tjx. it's a solid play going into the holidays and then into the disposal merchandise from 100 macy's being shut down. maybe some untold sears stores. tjx home goods is still strong. ross stores is still good, but tj can pull down the stock of its competitor pretty easily. big boxes and target, it seems down for the count, costco has been rocked by sellers. both companies have been hurt by food deflation. you want nasty? check back into those don't stores.
macy's is wallowing, nordstrom's seems to have lost momentum. it's now just going down. which leaves two that are doing well. walmart and amazon. the problem is that both are zero sum. walmart's delivering, they've cut prices, but doug mcmillen is doing a better job improving merchandising and less work turnover. amazon, total zero sum. when they win, everybody else loses. not as important as health care or finance, punches above its weight. the stocks are so visible, the numbers so disturbing, price action so horrendous, i would be kidding if i said i wasn't concerned. all i say is this group needs to snap out of its funk. we heard some positives about back to school season. all i can think of is king midas in reverse. that's not the directions you
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the suv that dares to go beyond utility. this is the pursuit of perfection. each name a life, etched in bronze. a lot of them were firefighters. lee's brothers. >> here's a squad, 288. the first name starts here and goes that way. so when you look that way you have to go until you see the next company, and that will tell you how many people died from squad 288. and i can go like this. and i can do that. on my son's name. because that's my son. my son came here with his company and hazmat.
that's 19 men from one firehouse. none of those men went home. jonathan, 29 years old, married with two little boys. >> that's one of the more poignant moments from a documentary i helped work on. ground zero free tomorrow versus fear. and it re-airs on the 15th anniversary of 9/11. i invite you to watch it. but the rebuilding has taken a lot of work by thousands of dedicated men and women, and it's an extraordinary tale of resilience, recovery and respect. i had a chance to meet some of the people involved, and i feel honored to let them tell their stories. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to find it right here for you on "mad money," i'm jim cramer, and i will see you monday.
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