tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC December 6, 2013 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
it's interesting that microsoft and intel have proven to do so well, given the pc projections aren't great and neither one has had great traction in mobile. there are other factors. we'll see in 2014 whether the hopes -- >> citi sees enough to upgrade. let's get back to headquarters and scott wapner and "halftime." >> all right, gentlemen, here's what we're following. 2014 playbook, an investor who's up more than 30% this year gives the xs and os on where your money should work next year. call of the day. upgrade for linkedin sends that stock surging. the analyst who gave the bump gives you the reasons why. we begin with the highlight of the today's first half of trading day. no doubt, a great jobs report and the big market reaction afterwards. stocks are soaring on the better-than-expected new, on track to reverse the five-day slide. certainly raises the question of whether stocks are finally ready to accept good news. it is "halftime," murph, let's
play the action. >> let's do it. >> bring on the taper now, right in. >> you definitely bring it on. i look at today's action, and i'm not completely sold by this rally. we're up over 1,800 on the s&p. we had, remember, down five days coming into today, and a five or six handle bump up in the futures before the number came up. no doubt, this is a great number. now we're going to get taper. >> you're not sold on -- you think the market still isn't ready? >> i think the market is ready. >> you're not a believer in what you're seeing? >> not a believer in this a. i'll tell you why. the financials were up 2% or a little better at the open. and then they started to sell off here, even though the s&p is sitting near highs of the day. i want to see the financials confirm this. i want to see the financials trading up at the highs of the day. i'm long the market. i've been long the market. >> but the financials are right there. the xlf, highs of the day. >> i'm looking -- that's what you want. let's look at citi, if you can pull citi up. citi is trading around 51.60, 51.60, up at 51.99. we're long citi. we want to see it back above 52.
a key level for it. so taper is good. taper will come. and we have the support for the taper now. >> can we finally, weiss, say that good news is great news? >> yes, i think we can. >> we can make that leap? >> and i'm going to find opportunity in murph's confusion, because i think the market -- [ laughter ] -- goes a lot higher. and this will finally -- look, let's go back to where bonds -- where -- >> you say every day the market's up. >> and every day you're confused. >> ooh. >> i know every day the market is down, you say you're short. >> that's just not true. i haven't been short for any period of time. >> okay. >> let's look at where rates bottom -- are you done? >> are you? >> -- the market's up 50% since then, and rates are up 50% since then, trading at 2.9. can markets go up, rates go up, absolutely, for the right reason. the economics news this week was great. i'm going to continue to be long the market. >> dr. j, good news is finally -- we're ready to accept it, aren't we? >> yeah, we are. i think what both the gentlemen
are saying is that we're not seeing the sort of data that would cause a massive jump in rates. that's what we talked about, judge, yesterday -- >> you're at 2.86 or whatever. it's not like a monster spike. i mean, what -- >> no, no -- >> -- yesterday, the same thing, at 2.86 yesterday, and today. >> exactly. that's my point. slow rise in rates is good. if we did get that whisper number, that 2.35 to 2.50 that was out there in the jobs report, you would have seen people sell it, and sell it rather hard. this is not exactly a goldilocks number, but it's a very good number. earnings are up about 2.3% year over year, steven. that's a good thing for the markets, and it means they'll be a little more cha-ching in people's pockets, although i don't think they're keeping up with real inflation with the 2.3% increase. >> simon baker, put all of this into perspective on how you approach this now for the remainder of this year and into next. >> well, you know, we're up 26% year to date. we're up 6.5% for the quarter, 15 trading days left.
and you have to be prudent. i don't see the market going higher. now is when you look at your portfolio, take some of the winners off, see how you want to be positioned in 2014. in our case, we'll line up on the multinationals. i don't like the exposures over there. staying with the same themes -- tech, google hit a new high. financials. we do like financials, and they will lead us out of here. and the industrials. and bringing cash onto it. i don't want to get greedy. >> we're at the highs. dow up 155 points. steve liesman is here to break out exactly what the jobs report means for the fed when it meets in a couple of weeks. i mean, december taper? people are going to start talking about, has the likelihood gone up, even if the likelihood was small, has it increased? >> definitely has increased. they're going to talk about it. they're going to talk long and hard. i think it will ab close-call. i would say right now they'd be undecided. i think they'd wait to see more data. the data has been good, scott. whoever used the term great, i
think that's a little hyperbowlic. -- hyperbolic. >> no, i said is good news finally great? >> it's good news, it's okay. you asked me not to be too complicated today, so i brought the one-month diffusion index. >> i appreciate that. >> take a look at this. and what this tells you here, this first chart, if we have it, one, two -- >> it's so complicated, they can't pull it up. >> no, that's the second thing. that's 203. that's all the stuff. look at that the earnings up. the hours are up. from the gdp. there's the diffusion. what this tells us, it's a numeric gauge of the breadth of job growth. the higher this number, the more industries contributed to the job growth. now, watch how that's come up off the floor in june and july. i know the fade's going to look at this and say, you know what, it's not one industry feeding this. there's one more chart i want to show you that i know the fed is looking at, and that's the long-term unemployed. bernanke talks about that.
it could be something -- it took a nice step down at the beginning of the year. it's flattened out. bernanke may come to a conclusion and yellen, you know what, this is not my job here. this is not -- we have good progress on the overall unemployment rate, the five-week, the 14-week, come down nicely. the 27-week has been something of a big concern to him, but then maybe somebody says, you know what, for the fiscal side. yeah, i think increasingly the fog is clearing, scott, and i think it will be a close call in december. i think january's a good bet. >> what's interesting is that by virtue of you even saying it will be a close-call, i think that is a little bit more than people had been expecting. >> i think that's right. >> there will be a real debate inside the room -- >> absolutely. >> -- whether to do this in december. guys, how is that going -- >> i want to add one thing, scott, which i know the fed feels like they've gotten to a point where they've earned this ability here, taken them a long time to get to the place to taper and not have a major negative market reaction. >> in other words, they've convinced folks that tapering is
not tightening? >> i think they feel like they've made progress in that regard. >> steve, what would you say to the people who say there won't be a taper in front of this january -- you know, before what goes on in d.c.? we have to get the budget talks resolved? >> look, they may have a resolution there. >> you may. >> i would -- i would ask how those people -- how well they did predicting the fed in june and in predicting the fed in september. i didn't do a good job at that, and my guess is they didn't either. i would say it's going to be a close call. i'm not sure i would come down definitively either way. >> all right. that will be interesting. if it really is moving closer towards a taper, perhaps even closer than some people expect, the market reaction over the next couple of weeks will be important to watch. steve, thanks. the next guest thinking tamtame tapering is coming next year. we'll talk to him in just a moment. as liesman said, if it's going to ab close call, does that change the way you think about this thing right now? >> i don't think you can say
taper is not starting to work its way into the market. we had a blowout gdp numberment we've had very good numbers this week, and we also had two great jobs numbers, not one. so you gotta believe it's coming, and it's coming for the right reasons. you have to emphasize that, because the economy's improving. we're going to see, in my view, good earnings growth next year, not just margin expansion at corporate -- on corporate business model. >> sarat is here. his core fund is up more than 30%. welcome back. good to see you. >> thank you. >> how do you now approach the market with tapering getting closer and closer and closer? >> so i think what you gentlemen have been talking about is exactly right. you want to look at companies that are going to grow, not just top line but also the bottom line now. and forget about all of the cost cutting. and where you're going to see, to simon's point, take money off the table, take money off the table that have been fixed income substitutions. these 4%, 5% dividend yielders not growing the payout ratio,
trading at 17, 18 times earnings, and you'll find them in the staples, in the other select telecom. you want to move to discretionary, cyclicals, and the industrials, as well. >> it doesn't sound like your investment philosophy is going to change all that much, is it in. >> no, it will be more focused, and this year was a good year. if were you in growth stocks, you did pretty well. and i think we're following that and finding companies that are either going to grow top line or some of the ones that are now out of favor at relatively cheap valuations. >> guys? >> i know two of your holdings, ford and gm. people feel you need to pick one, ford or gm? they've both had the rallies, you see the growth continuing for next year? >> i do. i do. i think gm is at this point cheaper. the analogy is like the delta-united. delta is like the ford. they're there about a year, year and a half ahead of the other two. i think gm's got a way to go. you had a lot of -- it was underowned for the first part because of the government
motors. they've got more restructuring to go, more costs to pull out, but ford has great products, and gm's getting there. >> is europe really the wild card there where they get the kicker in the growth, or is the u.s. enough to carry? >> europe, if it starts turning around, which we're seeing some baseline growth starting, you'll see it in the fords, gms, and also in the auto suppliers. delphi has 40% of its revenue coming from europe. that could be a good base to grow from while the rest of the world is pulling you along, as well. >> can you tell us why ebay is one of your top picks for 2014? >> if you look at everybody -- everybody is into the amazons there, and amazon this and that, but ebay has a great balance sheet. top line 10%, tradings 15 times earnings, paypal within them, worth a lot more than people give them credit for. if you get ebay turned around and get investor sentiment, you could get multiple expansion. >> pay is another stock you like.
mobile payments. >> totally broken stock. a new ceo that came in, used to run citi's credit card business. pay is, if you go into any taxi, you'll see you're using their systems. the company is basically the leader, but hasn't had the products that come out. and we think with the new ceo and new management team, this is a company trading 12 times earnings, more in the 15 to 20 times. >> cheap for a reason, right? it's that whole -- >> absolutely. but cheap for a reason in a sector that's growing, and they're already the leader. so if they can kind of just turn it around, they've already got the product there. and they've already got global infrastructure in place. >> market is up 25%, or whatever this year. europe -- your core fund is up 30. what will happen finally when the fed tapers? are you convinced at this point that good news is really good news, that we're finally ready to accept the fact that the party's going to end at some point -- >> absolutely. but it's not linear, and it
never has been. although it seems like it has been two years, a 4% correction, and you're back to the races. i do think at some point -- look, if one of the numbers comes on the other side, you could get a big jump in the 10-year, and then you'll get a market sell-off, whether it's in the financials or in something else. but i think sitting here in a couple of years we think the market's definitely higher. but you have to be in the right sectors, and you can't just say, you know, i want to be in the market, because i think the utilities, the staple, they're not going to get you where you want to be in the next three to five years. >> sarat, thank you, nice to talk to you. dominic chu has a quick run-through of the leaders and laggards. >> the macro markets overall, with the three major indices up, all about a percent, maybe a little under a percent, the dow up about 145, the s&p up 16, and the nasdaq up 30 points, it's at a 13-year high for that nasdaq composite. something to pay attention to for sure. if you look a little bit more down the funnel to the sectors that are moving -- there is not one speck of red on the board here for the s&p 500. all ten major sectors are up on
the day, led by the materials stocks, so something to watch. the laggards, like sarat just said, utilities not doing comparatively as well today. one stock in particular you're going to want to watch is apple, because in this bull-run higher today, apple is actually down about .6%. remember, though, this is a stock that since the lows that we saw in the spring, in april, is up around 47%. so, again, a nice run for apple, perhaps taking a breather in the rest of the market's bull run, scott, overall today. back over to you. >> dom, thank you very much. apple has been an interesting trade this week,aroo it? up, down, up, down, up, or vice versa, but it hasn't gone in a straight line this week. how do you trade it from here? >> had a phenomenal call, second-half story. i think the china news got into it. we're seeing that today. it's going to move up with the market, but i don't look like spectacular forwards. >> if you're looking to play the housing recovery, the next guest says to get specific. bill pulte joins us with the favorite housing plays after the break.
and jcpenney is down again, pushing the stock even closer to a 60% loss for the year. now with an s.e.c. investigation added to the mix, what happens to jcp shares now? not all of our traders agree with the call. that debate and much more is just ahead on "the half." in today's markets, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
welcome back. time for the "trader blitz" making news today, and first up, the gap. the retailer reporting a 2% increase in same-store sales for november. jeffries cutting its rating on the stock to hold following that report. simon? >> yeah, i mean, i read jeffries report. they're concerned about same-store sales growth going forward. difficult comparisons going forward, and they cut it. but i like the stock down here. i'd be buying on the dip, the thing to do internationally. i like gap longer term. >> two calls on twitter today. bernstein initiating coverage with a market perform rating, and a $40 price target. ever core raising the price target to 52 bucks from 43 maintaining outperform rating. the stock is trading higher on those reports. murph? >> it actually just reversed course, judge. it's trading down on that news. and i think twitter, a lot of excitement came out on the ipo,
a lot of people were very excited about getting involved. but got ahead of itself. you can't -- tough -- this twitter, very similar to facebook, it needs to marinade a bit in the levels. i'd be a buyer of twitter under 40. i wouldn't be jumping in here. >> sears has filed with the s.e.c. to spin off the lands' end holding business. it needs the approval of the board. >> and it won't be an issue, because we know the board of directors. it's been widely expected. that's not the issue. the issue is lambert has been a majority holding own erge and he's redeeming them not with cash but with sears stock, which is why they sold it. i'd stay away -- to me, it's not quite the same class as jcpenney, but it's not a great retail. >> let's talk big lots taking a big beating after reporting a wider than expected loss and disappointing forecast. doc? >> well, they missed top and
bottom lines, judge, then they're going to leave canada. that's probably a good move by the retailer, because they just weren't making it there. but the guidance down 25% to 35%, depending on whose estimates we're going by here. that's horrible for big lots, and that basically is why we're seeing such a steep falloff. i bet it trades down to the 52-week lows, that's about $3, $4 lower than where it is now. >> let's talk housing, because the housing industry runs in the family for our next guest. bill pulte's grandfather founded the multibillion-dollar homebuilder that bears his name 60 years ago in detroit. and bill pulte iv is blazing his own trail as the ceo of pulte capital partners, a private equity firm that invests in building product companies. welcome to "halftime." >> thanks for having me, scott. >> what's the state of housing from your vantage point? >> we're very bullish longer term. in the short term, we've seen what interest rates have done. we think tale continue. we're bullish on building products companies. we think home improvement is good, confidence in home
improvement stocks and that's why we're focusing on the private equity fund. >> it's different than the housing market, per se? >> certainly. >> you're not as bullish? >> longer term, i am. i think the stocks have done well. you look at the major homebuilders over the next one, two, three years they'll do well. you look at the amount of capacity taken out of the building products and the market share these guys have gained over the last five, ten years, it's enormous. it will pay dividends going forward. >> is there a bubble in the housing market? >> i don't think so. if you look at the existing housing inventory levels, we've got a long way to go before we're at normal levels. let's say we're at 700,000, 800,000 housing starts, we could get back to 1.4 million. >> i still hear from, you know, experts i speak to in the industry who say people are afraid to buy into another bubble. >> yeah. >> because of what prices have done. >> yeah. well, prices have gone up -- >> the amount they've spiked. >> mortgage affordability is fine, but the price of the home
are what deterring people going into buying homes, we think. >> prices spiked a lot, demand exceeds supply, rates up. those are the types of things that i hear from the folks that, you know, we speak with. >> one of the things we need in order to get the long-term growth is overall economic confidence, job confidencement we have mortgage affordability, we have some of the other things. interest rates are low. but we need the job confidence if we're going to get housing going. >> murph? >> i agree with a lot of what you're saying, but i also think playing the builders isn't the right way to do it. we speak to a lot of people in the industry. we're looking at lumber, companies like louisiana-pacific, where you know, you look at forecasts for 2014, '15, they're off the charts. so i think your call is spout on having the materials names, or things going into the houses versus owning the builders. >> and you see that with home depot and lowe's. and we own a large countertop business, and we couldn't be growing faster. i can guarantee you we're doing some things right but --
>> spinoff? >> maybe one day. you looking to buy? >> massco and fortune brands are the -- you came with stock picks. >> i did. >> talk to me about those names. >> they're competitors of a couple of my business, and what i see, we have the same end market, we're seeing a lot of confidence with their customers. what we're trying to say here with these two picks is you look at fortune brands, had over $100 million increase in volume in the cabinet sales year over year for the third quarter, so tremendous upside with masco and fortune brands. we think the management team at masco has done a great job. and we're not talking huge appreciation, but in masco's case, maybe $5 more a share. >> before i let you go, what was your take on the developments in detroit this week, given your family's history there, given some of the work that you have done there and the decision by the judge to say that the bankruptcy filing can go forward in. >> you know, it's very unfortunately, obviously, detroit has to do that. it's a reality. it's the first time for us to be able to address the chronic problems that face detroit. dan gilbert got involved with an
initiative, in a ever a movemenu know i've been involved with, blight elimination. the mayor is behind it. and the mayor-elect. we're excited longer term about it. we're on our way back up. stay tuned on detroit. >> bill, good to talk to you. thanks for being here. >> scott, thank you. >> let's trade housing stocks. where's the value? >> you see, i don't think the value's in the homebuilders, and why gamble on them. rates have always been the detriment of the stocks, number one. number two, i think it's a mistake to rely on prior single family home creation given that the banks are much tighter, and what they did back then is not going to recur, at least in our lifetime. >> judge? >> so go with the building products. >> ingersoll, rand, i like them because of train and shlege, the lock company. i know it's not as pure a pick as bill likes, but i like these guys and the diversification of the stock, i think, gives you upside well into 2015. >> agree with ingersoll completely, and another way to
playhousing recovery is the mortgage insurers, on a company like genworth, and other ways to play it rather than just owning the hole builders. >> i have to agree with weiss. i like the homebuilders. the demand -- the demand you were talking about is creeping up. and value play going into 2014. >> demand isn't so much the issue, it's the supply. that's one. rising rates, two. prices -- >> well, i think the rates are going to rise at a decent level next year. i don't think it will spook the market. i don't think it will freak it out. we saw how the market reacted with 10 basis points. i think the market -- the housing market looks good for recovery. you know what, we need it if the economy will be stable. we need the housing market to be that. it will be good next year. >> let's go to dominic chu back at the "market flash" desk for what's moving right now. >> this time, scott, american eagle outfitters moving lower, sharply. the teen retailer forecasting weaker-than-expected profits in the current quarter, this due to
intense discounting this holiday season. the company forecasting a midsingle-digit decline in same-store sales, so aeo were up big last time, but this time not so much. >> how do we play all of the names in that particular part of the retail space? >> retail -- look. i'm sticking with my horses where i've been, which are macy's, which is kors, where i did take it off the table, but get back into it. some of the names dom's talking about, i'm not necessarily playing that. >> all right. get this, hedge funds are trailing the market by the widest margins since 2005. some managers are even leaving the business altogether. so does the model still make sense? and the hit his keep coming for jcpenney, now an s.e.c. investigation is added to the mix. how do you play that one? that story is next. if you want to invest in china, deutsche bank has launched a fund they say gives you access to the same markets as the locals, so we're going to talk to the head of their etf business and do much more straight ahead on "the half."
with fidelity's options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options... evaluate them with our p&l calculator... and execute faster with our more intuitive trade ticket. i'm greg stevens, and i helped create fidelity's options platform. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open anount.
before global opportunities were part of their investment strategy... before they funded scholarships to the schools that gave them scholarships... before they planned for their parents' future needs and their son's future... they chose a partner to help manage their wealth, one whose insights, solutions and approach have been relied on for over 200 years. that's the value of trusted connections. that's u.s. trust. you can fill that box and pay one flat rate. i didn't know the coal thing was real. it's very real... david rivera. rivera, david. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.
welcome back. it's been a rough year for hedge funds struggling to keep up with the broad markets, so are hedge funds the best place for your money? let's bring in anthony who joining us on "the fast line." good to talk to you. >> lou you doing? it's not just this year. it's been five tough year for mostly the long-short managers and the macro managers. but the guys that continue to do well friends of yours like carl icahn, say a dan loeb, janet partner, lee cooperman, omega, they're doing well for a reason. they're in catalytic stories, which are a venture in terms of their orientation. these are m&a spinoffs, asset sales, special dividends. these are the things that are driving the better performing sector, the hedge fund community. you know, my opinion is until the monetary policy of the united states more normalizes,
the long-short managers, the macro guys will have a rough time many but next year could be a year that embarks upon that normalization. >> we might be well on our way, right? if you package together the data we've gotten over the last seven, eight days, along with today's jobs report, you think that day is closer? >> i do think it is closer. i think the gdp is better than expected. even if you pull out the inventory buildup, it's better than expected. you also have the issue of what we call the u-6 unemployment rate, you've heard me talk about that before, the november number went from 13.8 to 13.2. that's something the fed is looking at. as it gets towards 12, it gives them more comfort and opportunities to begin the tapering, stop the purchasing program in its entirety, and that could be the back half of 2014. and so, while we're writing the obituary for the hedge fund community, it could be the rise
of the hedge fund community actually we'll be witnessing in the second half of next year. >> let me get your take on what you've repeatedly called, anthony, a liquidity-driven market. we are debating at the very top of our show today whether the market's finally ready to accept the fact that tapering's coming, that good news is good news. are you ready to change your opinion that once the liquidity is taken away, at least in some respects by the fed, that the market can still go higher? >> well, i actually think it's going to continue to trade higher, but it will trade higher for different reasons. i think it's offsetting what will happen on the fed side, will be obviously good economic fundamentals, and an underpinning of good earnings. and a ton of cash on the s&p balance sheet will drive them to do these things we were discussing. m&a, spinoff, asset sales, et cetera. >> buybacks, et cetera? >> exactly. but one theme for viewers to really think about, you've got a more normalized thing coming. so market's going up 25%, 30% unlikely.
5% to 8%, scott? 5% to 12%, more likely, and, frankly, that's an environment that those hedge fund managers that haven't been doing well, they can do a lot better in an environment like that. we have to accept in life that a lot of our investing is cyclical. and that's one of the reasons why you try to stay schematic. but we're heading for normalization. but i think the market will trade higher next year, just not with the fervor that we've had in 2013. >> anthony, good to talk to you, as always. >> thanks, guys. coming up, intel getting a boost, having a solid year, but still upperforming. so can the stock catch up? a difference of opinion on the desk. linkedin is the call of the day. much more straight ahead. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life.
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 where others see fads... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...you see opportunities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're here to help tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 turn inspiration into action. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 we have intuitive platforms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you discover what's trending. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and seasoned market experts to help sharpen your instincts. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so you can take charge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of your trading.
the shares getting a boost today. by citigroup, upgrading that stock to a buy, citing stabilized corporate pc demand, so should you bet with citi, and buy that stock? let's debate it. john najarian is the bull, mike murphy is the bear. doc, the case is yours to make. >> and i know murph's going to come after me on this one, for sure, judge. and that is, he's going to say what about the death of the pc? these guys are going to sell 40 million chips for tablets next year, murph, because that's their big expansion area. take a look at what android's doing right now with phones and, of course, android tablets. they don't have 64 bit, but intel does. apple has that. everybody wants it, because it renders faster, makes the experience better, that's why intel will be a great pick for next year, that and a 4% dividend, and i like the stock, it's nice and cheap. it will move fast. >> i love you pulled a maj out of eminem's book "eight mile" movie. but i'll disagree.
up at $25 a share is not the time to buy intel. it rallied off the $23 number. >> true. >> the kicker, the company told you what will happen for 2014. this could be a turnaround story, and there could be more to intel. about you it's not right now. the reason is the pc shipments that make up more than half of the revenues, they'll be down. the company told you this, down 3.5% -- down 3.5 billion for next year. >> so they've priced that in already. >> they haven't priced it in. >> they told you that. >> they told, the stock got hit and rallying on, what, an upgrade from citi. whether you get real numbers, the reason intel hasn't sold off more is people think management was conservative in their guidance. i don't think it's there. they haven't made the full shift over to mobile yet. i think it may be a 2015 story. >> they won't make a full shift to mobile. neither of us think they will. >> right. >> the death of the pc is overstated. people that have smartphones can on do a certain amount of work on those, and the tablets. they're going to still buy pcs. >> simon baker, who made the more compelling argument? >> i have to go with jon.
when was the last time you heard pc sales stabilizing? i nearly fell off my chair when i got that note. i think it's great. you can start to understand what the earnings estimates will be from intel. 40 million chips, as jon said, looks strong. and new tech, old tech, intel should be a core piece. >> tell us who you think won, tweet @halftimereport, use #bear or #bull. let's move on to another high-flier, linkedin up 100% this year, getting upgraded to outperform at bmo. it's our call of the day. s dan salmon is behind the call. welcome back. >> good afternoon. >> why the upgrade? >> with linkedin, it's a story that's been really strong. and, you know, it is a high-flyer value, valued very highly. when you look at store ares like them, it's about new stories to move on to for investors, and
after so much attention being focused on the talent solutions and work with human resources departments, big enterprises, you know, there's some new stories emerging here, and in particular, a new focus on salespeople. you know, the company thinks that they've got about six times as many salespeople using the platform as hr departments. that's something that is a new opportunity that they're starting to pursue, and we expect to see more on. moving towards more mobile tools. that mobile recruiter product is now evident on the markets. so you always want something next to speak about with a stock like this, and we feel those stories are starting to emerge. >> you had a market per teform today, and are you surprised at all that linkedin has managed to move as fast and as high as it has? >> not really. i think it took us a little while to get our arms around the
story. we feel a little bit better with it. but oftentimes, the phrase disrupter, i think, is thrown around a little bit too much in the internet space. and this is one that is really disrupting the space. i co-cover the stock with our business services analyst, jeff silver, here, and his work around what they're doing in recruiting and talent management suggests that, you know, they really are -- really are changing the way that enterprises do business. and so, i think it is one that is really, truly disruptive. >> i think what's interesting in your note, in part, at least, based on a belief that linkedin is preparing to formally law enforcement in china. what's the timeframe? and how -- how much is your price target predicated on that timeframe being in the short term? >> so no timeframe, and i wouldn't say that our price target's predicated too much on that. right now.
it's an opportunity that the company has always, you know, talked about, you know, several million members using the english language platform in china. and so, we don't really see any specific timeline to it. but i've always felt that linkedin is a u.s. social media property. you know, really should have a good opportunity in that market as it does sort of jive with where the chinese government is trying to take that country. and so, clearly a market that involves a lot of technicalities, a lot of constituents to get on board with it, so we wouldn't expect it to be something that would be rushed at all. certainly something that would take their time. but we feel like that's something that in the next few years, at least, we could start to maybe hear a bit more about. >> hey, dan, good to talk to you, as always. thank you so much. >> take care. >> let's do the biggest "pops and drops."
electronic arts getting a pop. >> yeah, down yesterday on the downside, but now back up six. >> good data on a stimulater they had, showing very good relief for back pain, lower back pain, upper back pain, that's why it would be great. >> murph, family dollar. >> family dollar, got a downgrade over at stern a.j., and the stock is getting hard. it's in no-man's land, but it's sitting near the 200-day average. you could jump in, use a tight stock. >> doc, alta salon? >> yeah, they took this thing apart. everything was wrong with this, and from the top line, bottom line, guidance. there was nothing good in this report, and they are continuing to hit it. it hasn't had any bounce. >> if you're looking to invest in china, there's a new fund that offers the retail investor access to that country they've never had before. we have the head of etfs at
deutsche bank right here live to explain how next. we're at session highs right now. materials, industrials, financials leading the way. there it is. green on the board on our heat map. dow's up nearly 170. we're back after this. screech ] ♪ [ male announcer ] 1.21 gigawatts. today, that's easy. ge is revolutionizing power. supercharging turbines with advanced hardware and innovative software. using data predictively to help power entire cities. so the turbines of today... will power us all... into the future. ♪
new business owner, it would be one thing i've learned is my philosophy is real simple american express open forum is an on-line community, that helps our members connect and share ideas to make smart business decisions. if you mess up, fess up. be your partners best partner. we built it for our members, but it's open for everyone. there's not one way to do something. no details too small. american express open forum. this is what membership is. this is what membership does.
[ male announcer ] this december, experience the gift of true artistry and some of the best offers of the year at the lexus december to remember sales event. this is the pursuit of perfection. a confident retirement. those dreams, there's just no way we're going to let them die. ♪ like they helped millions of others. by listening. planning. working one on one. that's what ameriprise financial does. that's what they can do with you. that's how ameriprise puts more within reach. ♪
all right. coming up on "power lunch," a broadcast that promises in its own way to be as epic as last night's live performance of "the sound of music." we'll talk biotech stocks, hot, hot, hot, and the question is, can they continue their strength? we have the hottest biotechs in 2014. can stocks and interest rates rise together? we're going to ask the ceo of cantor fitzgerald. usually rising interest rates poison for stocks. we'll explore that one. and from cars to bikes, nascar's leading lady take agnew turn. danica patrick will join us to explain in a "cnbc first." >> ty, look forward to that. najarians have a knack for seeing stock moves before they happen. jon najarian is looking at a stock that could be poised for a big move. which one is that today, doc? >> today, one of steven's stocks, macy's. macy's, the 55 calls in january, they bought them, 10,000 lot,
all at once. that's 1 million share equivalent in macy's. it says that they're not going to get coal in their stockings over there. they're going to do very well. that's a big bet. the stock's already moving and the options are moving along with it right now, judge. >> the stock is moving now, as we were seeing, the stock getting a nice bump today. let's shift to emerging markets now. our next guest overseas roughly $14 billion in management across multiple asset classes, and recently launched the first etf to provide u.s. investors with direct access to china equities. mark joins us here on the set. good to talk to you. >> good to be here. >> why is this a good idea? i think a lot of people are looking at it and saying, i'm just not sure. >> there are a few things to be considered. first of all, china is the second largest economy in the world now. if are you going to international equities, you should have some allocation to china. recent reforms enacted by the chinese government should
provide a good boost over the next two, three, four years. >> i think it's the lack of transparency in the market. it's the risk of investing there. it's the volatility that we've seen in shanghai that leads one to be concerned about what the trade really is going to be over the next 12 months. >> i mean, those are all fair points. whenever you're investing in emerging markets, it's about risk versus reward. and here you have to look at what is a risk. the index we're using, the 300 largest stocks. so you're looking at the large to midcap range. there's not small cap, not doing anything that's too kind of out there. and i think, also, when you look at the reforms that have just been passed, certainly our economists believe that the chinese stock market is looking at a 20% to 25% rise over the next 12 months or so. and so, you have to think, okay, what is my risk? there is volatility, but it goes both ways, and if it's to the upside, that's where you'll make money. >> it seems like china -- i went
over there to look at companies, and i couldn't wait to get back and sell everything i own. it seems like china is a stock-picking market. why would i want 300 stocks in china with the risks out there on it? >> i think for a start, that's changing now. and there's a lot of market reforms going through. the ipo market is getting very hot at the moment. and i think, you know, over the longer term, you will want exposure to china in general. certainly the moment there is no way to get exposure to individual market -- >> just own yahoo! right? >> that's maybe one way of doing it. but i think over the long term you will want exposure to the broader chinese market. the growth is still strong, and still a very, very, you know, boosted e.m. trade. >> it's a great way to play it, long or short. i've been on both sides of it, because i can't do the work, and most regular investors -- unless you have boots on the ground, or you go back continually, it's very difficult. it's great way to buy the bond market, the tbf, the u.p.,
playing the dollar. are there others that really give the average investor a way to play a theme similar to those three? that you can think of? >> in terms of other etfs that are out there? >> yeah. >> etfs are you want commoditie currencies, mlps. you name it there are maybe 2,000 etfs available in the market. you will be able to find the exposure you want. they're great risk management tools as well. current trade going on the fact that the asian market is trading to a 5 % market to the offshore hong kong listings and a lot of traders in hong kong are going long asia short h shares to see that discount disappear. >> it's great to have you on the show. thank you very much. >> thank you very much. >> interesting product. i wonder if anybody would be an investor in it and i also wonder the issue of passive versus active investing in a region that carries, perhaps, a greater amount of risk.
>> i think there's unbelievable risk in the market. we keep reading what's happening with the banks and ignoring the same news that's actually worse news than we ignored here over the year. i've been more short, long the fxi, because to me that -- i don't have single stock risk and don't know enough about the single stocks. >> i would be an investor in this and martin put together a great group of companies here but not necessarily from the long side. as he was saying you can use this to hedge bets or get a short exposure against a longs you have. it's a specific vehicle that i think does exactly what you want it to. >> financials are the biggest weighting within the eft. that's what's looking at. financials, industrials and discretionary materials the top four weighted tech s.e.c. tors. coming up the traders are on the hot seat answering the questions you tweeted. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade
and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction
with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. ask me what it's like to get your best night's sleep every night. [announcer] why not talk to someone who's sleeping on the most highly recommended bed in america? ask me about my tempur-pedic. ask me how fast i fall asleep. ask me about staying asleep. [announcer] tempur-pedic owners are more satisfied than owners of any traditional mattress brand. tempur-pedic. the most highly recommended bed in america. now sleep cooler with extra cooling comfort on our bestselling tempur-breeze beds. visit tempurpedic.com to learn more,
welcome back. dominic chu is keeping track of all of the big market movers today. got a special flash of something or someone on the move. >> oh. >> i mean scott, the stock market is not the only thing that's hot today. multiple reports have new york yankees second baseman robinson cano headed to the pacific northwest saying that this year's hottest free agent is siping with the seattle mariners for a deal reportedly worth $240 million over ten years. this contract would be the third richest in major league baseball history. first and second places reside with another yankee alex rodriguez who signed a ten-year, $252 million deal in 2000 with the rangers and a ten-year extension worth $275 million with the yankees. the other big winner newly minted sports agent jay-z, his rock nation sports in conjunction with caa sports represents robbie cano.
>> thanks. bubble in baseball? >> i don't know. >> i don't know how those big contracts have worked that size. >> pujols, signed a massive one, that hasn't worked out all that well at all. >> they don't work out. i don't get it. >> more power to them. >> they should go for every penny. as an owner i wouldn't want it. >> final trades up next as well as the winner of the debate. ya know, with new fedex one rate you can fill that box and pay one flat rate. i didn't know the coal thing was real. it's very real... david rivera. rivera, david.
[ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. who found a magic seashell. it told him what was happening on the trading floor in real time. ♪ the shell brought him great fame. ♪ but then, one day, he noticed that everybody could have a magic seashell. [ indistinct talking ] [ male announcer ] right there in their trading platform. ♪ [ indistinct talking continues ] [ male announcer ] so the magic shell went back to being a...shell.
get live squawks right in your trading platform with think or swim from td ameritrade. get live squawks right in your trading platform so when my moderate to severe chronic plaque psoriasis them. was also on display, i'd had it. i finally had a serious talk with my dermatologist. this time, he prescribed humira-adalimumab. humira helps to clear the surface of my skin by actually working inside my body. in clinical trials, most adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis saw 75% skin clearance. and the majority of people were clear or almost clear in just 4 months. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal events, such as infections, lymphoma, or other types of cancer have happened. blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure have occurred. before starting humira, your doctor should test you for tb. ask your doctor if you live in or have been to a region
where certain fungal infections are common. tell your doctor if you have had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores. you should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. make the most of every moment. ask your dermatologist about humira, today. clearer skin is possible. all right. we've tallied the results and you've spoken. the people said that dr. j, the bull, on intel. >> it was the m&m argument, right? >> kind of surprised, actually. >> people love to hate that stock. >> not against the argument. people love to hate that stock. >> they love to hate microsoft. >> microsoft has performed. >> love to hate hewlett-packard. >> we said they're moving away from dividend play. >> i didn't bring my a-game today and i apologize. >> doc, a final trade. >> range resources, rrc, i
bought it this morning on unusual call activity. >> steve weiss. >> tbf like the third time. >> murph? >> sticking with the gen worth, great way to play housing. >> bakes. >> deckers outdoor. >> that does it for us. have a great weekend. we will see you on the other side. follow me on twitter. "power" starts now. >> "halftime" is over. "power lunch" and the second half of the trading day starts right now. >> all right. 203,000 jobs created in november. that, of course, is the headline. unemployment down to 7%. the big question then, is what does this all mean for the fed and for everything else? here's what it means for the markets today. right now the dow is up 178 points at 15,999, a tick below 16,000 againp. and, of course, there are 18 shopping days left before christmas and if that has you stressed out, some big name high-end stores may have a so