tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg April 27, 2022 8:00am-9:00am EDT
>> what is happening now is such a supply chain stock, you are this inflation come through. >> this is a commodity negative shock. >> it is really more a story for 2023. >> the slowdown in growth will be very impactful, especially a country like china. >> if we have a slowdown in china, definitely bad news for us. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. tom: an interesting day has become a very busy day, an
historic day for global wall street. the united states district court, southern district of new york, bill hwang and archegos are back. jonathan: federal authorities said mr. hwang used archegos as an instrument of manipulation and fraud. we have to break down the charges and see how easy or hard they will need to prove. tom: when i look at this and the follow on, one of the parts of the debris is credit suisse today hit a new low under seven swiss franc's per share. still damaged by the scandal. jonathan: and they'll be watching this closely. the epicenter of this, acquired leverage. was that a legal or perfectly legal? that will be a factor in this
that i'll be pretty interested in. tom: we are looking at the document right now. everybody will wade through the documents quickly. lisa, your thoughts? lisa: it will be interesting to see what they go after in terms of leverage given the fact that he had 1.5 billion dollars in actual ownership, already $5 billion exposure, also how this factors into the banking sector considering a lot of the losses were born by credit suisse and nomura. tom: paul linda and bulgaria cut off from the russian gas. moments ago, the euro down to new weakness. 1.0582. jonathan: just to frame the weakness of the last year, we had a 1.03 handle in 2017. they don't want the dollar at 1.06, but what are they going to do about it?
talk about hiking into the summer with inflation where it is? what about growth? that is the rock and a hard spot that the ecb is in this year. tom: what do you see in the data screens that matters? jonathan: this bounce is not a convincing month. we all got up this morning, saw a move on s&p and nasdaq futures around 1%, and now we are up about a third. apple and amazon coming up tomorrow. tom: we try to speak to people that are truly in depth on a given topic. if you studied german at harvard, that prepares you to arguably the top investigative reporter at wall street. greg farrell has done this at the financial times and for over a decade at bloomberg. his story was definitive 10 years ago. are you surprised to see this legal action against the
founders of archegos? greg: frankly, no. given the events of last year, we were all over this. it was more of, can the prosecutors figure out a way to figure out what the charges would actually be? they were looking to exploit a couple of legal avenues. jonathan: can we go through the charges? an instrument of market manipulation and fraud, that is what they use the company for. the other allegation, they artificially inflated the portfolio from $1.5 billion to $35 billion. explain when acquired leverage is illegal and when it is legal? greg: this goes to securities fraud and transparency with the people you are treated with. this is part of mr. hwang's game
for his counterparts not to see. he was able to amass significant stakes in many companies without the market [indiscernible] second securities fraud charge. credit suisse is reading this very closely right now. lisa: when you talk about credit suisse and nomura and others who are reading this closely, are they looking for their own liability or looking for an offramp, a lawsuit, another way to explain the losses? greg: more of the latter. [indiscernible] for the u.s. attorney in manhattan to bring these charges
to justify their position that they were burned. at least right now, this guy has criminal charges, bill hwang. this will be a support to the legal efforts they make to limit the damage [indiscernible] tom: mr. hwang has enjoyed some quality time in new york federal court in 2012. to be direct, he has left a trail of legal debris in hong kong and america. does his track record matter in these allegations to a judge? greg: i'm not sure it does to a judge, but for a jury, this will be going to trial. clearly, his misadventures with his funds years ago and how the
sec had shut him down, forced to run a family office. the description in the indictment of how he use that family office to basically go well beyond what a family office should be, stepping into an actual investment powerhouse. lisa: can you put this charge into perspective with the u.s. attorney's office, southern district of new york in terms of how they view leverage, how they have been cracking down on securities fraud, manipulation, issues pertaining to family offices? is there a larger context to put these charges within? greg: i think there could be given what is going on with the markets the last 10 years. people bending rules, in this case, going through them, is a sign that the u.s. attorney's office is taking this seriously
and willing to go into deeper waters. it is a complex case, still reading through the indictment, but this is beyond insider trading. we and others have reported there is an investigation into broader wall street. there are a group of investigators there focused on some deep, intricate, complex trading strategies that could be going beyond the elements of the law. jonathan: you are still reading through it, i understand that, but as you go through some of the big allegations, can you explain how difficult it is to prove the case? federal authorities, it is their job to make it sound like this one is straightforward. it is not. how difficult would it be to prove this? greg: in this case, you have the counterparties from the banks
confirming to the court, we thought x, and in fact, it was y. the problem for bill hwang, he doesn't have many allies here. if this goes to trial, a good strategy would be to inundate the jurors with information, market moves in the middle of the day, our come etc., to make a complex enough that one or two jurors will have doubts. tom: you are expert at the partition between criminal allegations and civil allegations. is this action on 11 counts a symbol of how all these aggrieved parties will go after mr. hwang in the coming months and years? greg: yes, i'm pretty sure.
you have the power of the u.s. attorney's office. it will be at least a year or two before this goes to trial. but now they have something they can show. this is comfort, if you will, to credit suisse and some of the other banks that were burned. tom: greg farrell, fantastic work. jonathan: we look forward to catching up soon. you can see where the banks would wanted to go, they wanted to look like they were manipulated as opposed to being clumsy and lazy. tom: i will back to the simple amateur take, this guy has left a trail of debris over a decade. greg farrell is definitive on this with his work on malfeasance. it takes months and quarters to do this, but it is not the first time this guy is showing up in american court. jonathan: when they allege the
fraud inflated the portfolio from 1.5 billion dollars to $35 billion in one year, bramo, that does not pass the smell test. that gets your attention. lisa: there is the civil aspect tom was touching on in terms of how credit suisse and nomura can absolve their losses. in a broader sense, basically, what does this mean in terms of how they understand legal and illegal leverage? not from the wall street perspective but the investor community. jonathan: the latest this morning, the archegos founder hit with criminal charges this morning. futures up 0.6% on the s&p. facebook after the close. amazon and apple reporting tomorrow. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. federal agents have arrested the
former owner of archegos capital management. bill hwang's former cfo was also arrested. thought have been charged with fraud. the archegos collapse led to a big loss for a number of banks. natural gas prices in europe jumps 20% after russia made good on my threat to turn energy into a weapon against ukraine's allies. they halted gas flows to poland and bulgaria and will keep the flows off until the countries agreed to the russian demand to pay for the fuel in rubles. russia supplies gas to 23 european countries. xi jinping is calling for an all-out effort to boost infrastructure spending. it is the latest attempt to rescue economic growth. but the strategy may prove less effective this time around because of lockdowns being used to keep the coronavirus under control. the world's richest person cannot afford many days like tuesday. elon musk's stake in tesla
plunged more than $32 billion. shares of tessler were down 12%. he has sold some of his tesla stake for the twitter deal. boeing hopes to restart deliveries of the 787 dreamliner. the company filed a certification of plan with u.s. authorities. work has been largely halted for more than a year because of small structural flaws. meanwhile, boeing and through more than $3.2 billion in the first quarter, worse than analysts expected. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg.
jonathan: i live from new york city, good morning on tv and radio. the nasdaq 100 positive by one third of 1%. the s&p up .5%. yields higher by three basis points on the 10 year. the german bond market does not participate. euro-dollar, 1.0583. look at these numbers coming out of germany. the government cuts the forecast from 3.6% to 2.6%. here is the inflation glide path over the next 18 months payment 6.1 inflation in 2022. 2.8% in 2023. tom: how do you get there? the gdp is back to what we will call german normal, fine.
inflation plunges 6.1. i get it, politically, socially a challenge. then what is the number after that? jonathan: 2.8 in 23. all of this is dependent on the war in ukrainian gas supplies from russia. we are hearing from ursula von der leyen saying the russian gas cap was not a surprise. paulette and bulgaria are now getting their gas from eu neighbors. our response will be immediate and coordinated. the kremlin is using fossil fuels to try and blackmail us. that is the latest from the europeans. tom: incredible newsday. we have barely talked about meta, this afternoon. thank you, greg farrell, for joining on mr. hwang and federal indictments. 11 counts? jonathan: i have not counted.
tom: i don't have the document yet. my entourage is trying to get the documents. jonathan: when you get it, pass it over. tom: right now, we are going to stephen gallo with bmo capital markets. when the big economic numbers, data, currency adjusts, do you need to readjust your 12-month forecast on euro-dollar? stephen: i will not give you a 12-month forecast at this point. i think we are just going through this one day at a time just like policymakers, just like investors globally. going back to the point that you made about economic data moving currencies, probably more so than in any time in recent history, perhaps going back to the 1990's, 1980's, we have
never seen monetary policy divergence that could cause -- in the foreign exchange market like we think it will do for the remainder of 2022. that is a key theme that is poised to drive the fx market, maybe already. when we look at the dollar strength recently, i wouldn't say it is all due to expectation that the fed will increase the speed of monetary tightening. i would say that as part of the story. you also have pretty negative flows picture for the euro, both on the trade side and also on the investment side. at least data we have through the end of february. then you have got the geopolitical discount. even though we have not seen
investors really piling into short euro-dollar positions, the data does not suggest they are overly short euro-dollar's, there is definitely underlying close but the mental distinctive for the euro. it looks like it will remain that way. it could get worse if the fed moves as fast as it is telegraphing, the ecb is unable to move, or moves very slowly. jonathan: what is the more important driver right now, the fed or the situation in china? stephen: the most important driver for euro-dollar? jonathan: for the single currency. stephen: well, over the last couple of, since the end of last week, the more important moves in fx have been in the rmb. to the degree that has move the asian currency complex, effectively the rmb moves with
weakness happening in other asian currencies before hand. the way the euro has treated subsequently to that move in the rmb, you see it has been parked for the near term by pboc. the way the rmb has moved -- the way the euro has moved since the rmb has been parked, very limited if any reserve demand for euros. if that is true, that is telling on a number of different fronts. jonathan: great to catch up. stephen gallo bmo capital markets. i am sure, lisa, that will resonate with a lot of people. lisa: especially as you see the euro breaking down. just to bring you some of these headlines, i have been looking at these. it is fascinating to hear some of the comments out of ursula von der leyen, including one that throws a bit of shade at
germany, it's a reminder to work with reliable partners. basically saying that russia is not reliable. but ruble payments are a breach of sanctions. those paying in rubles, those companies that have set up accounts, how much can that continue? jonathan: there is a mechanism to pay in euros, converted to rubles. when gazprom says they are receiving in rubles, i wonder if that is from the european side? are they sending in euros and they are ultimately converted at gazprom to rubles? i am sure there is a mechanism that they have agreed on networks. the big question is what happened with bulgaria and poland. what were other countries able to do that these countries were not? lisa: or is it an issue of these countries being more vocal against russia and russia is punishing them. i wonder where they will be getting the gas, eu neighbors?
how long can this continue before they are forced to have some sort of ban on russian energy? how much of that will that be the immediate action that the european union takes? jonathan: i think this is embarrassing from ursula von der leyen, we have been working since march to reduce dependency on russia. since march, when they have been warned repeatedly over the last few decades to do more than they have done. tom: i think everyone needs to look forward hear. i have been studying this, but the storage capacity in europe to me seems to be the critical feature in the summer months, using it along the way, of course. but where does it sit in october or november of this year? i don't have any expertise. jonathan: you have to learn from the lessons. what they had done repeatedly in germany is look like they are going to do something, georgia,
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jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning on tv and radio. price action on the s&p, nasdaq. nasdaq 100 up just .2% after being much lower in yesterday's session. the s&p up .4%, yields higher by two basis points. we have gone through the charges with bill hwang from archegos. there will be a news conference at 11:30 eastern time. u.s. attorney's office for the southern district of new york. that will take place at 11:30 eastern time. tom: amateurs like me, real pros like greg farrell will go through the document. thank you to sonali basak for that. buried in the document will be a few sentences that are telling.
jonathan: which ones have you picked out? the one that people keep bringing up, to take the portfolio from $1.5 billion to $35 billion in one year is pretty phenomenal. jonathan: that is -- tom: that is bad but what i want to know is the paper trail they must have of the deceit along the way that they allege. that to me is more interesting of how they manipulated -- let's say there are 20 parties. how did they manipulate the 20 parties that got hung out to dry? jonathan: will be interesting to see the evidence that mr. hwang presents on what the banks did or did not know. tom: a moving target. look for a trial a year out or more. it is never a trial to speak to edward yardeni, president of yardeni research.
has enjoyed corrections and bear markets such as we are in right now. i know it is not 1974, but what is the character of this downdraft? edward: the key characteristic here is the stagflationary environment that we have inadvertently walked into. two years of helicopter money, and that was the easy way to deal with the crisis of the pandemic, but now we are paying for it with higher inflation. the stock market cannot have a tapering tantrum and expect that the fed will respond because inflation is much more severe than the past three tapering tantrums. tom: how will corporations adjust? we will speak to mary barra from general motors in a minute. whether it is autos, facebook, the rest of it, how do corporations adapt given these economic events? edward: i know there is a lot of
concern that the risks of recession have increased. in my mind they have come up from 50% before the war in ukraine up to 30%. one of the reasons i'm not convinced that we will fall into recession here is the consumer sector is in very good shape. the corporate sector is in phenomenally good shape. they raised over $2 trillion in the corporate bond market, nonfinancial corporations have. they refinanced a tremendous amount of their debt at record though interest rates. as the fed is raising interest rates, there is plenty of liquidity left over of the past two years. lisa: you say 30% chance of recession, has gone up since the start of the war. in the u.s., next year, what is your timeframe? edward: if you ask me about europe, it is more like 50%, 60% going. for this year, yes. for the 30%, i think it is more
next year than this year. leading indicators are still at an all-time record high, telling us there is no immediate risk of recession, although the stock market is certainly acting like it. lisa: do you agree with bill dudley and others that if this ongoing momentum continues, it will result in a more severe crash later on simply because inflation will not be contained in will become more entrenched? edward: not really. if you look at the history of inflation, it doesn't just keep going up and up. it is very spikey, even in 1973, 1979, spikes of inflation and then they moderated. when they are increasing at a very rapid rate compared to the past, at some point, the arithmetic starts to slow them down. i think we will see some moderation in considerabl --
consumer durable goods. i think we are satisfying a tremendous amount of pent-up demand. services have been relatively moderate. the problem is within the services area, the rent inflation over the next two years will be going higher. i think we are looking at a higher for longer inflation. tom: unfair question but i want to send the rise the original study of fiscal economics, which was literally a franchise of new haven for decades. we have the mother of all fiscal stimuluses, and then we bring it over to the monetary side to an inflation study. what is your perspective of the duration of excess inflation given the fiscal impulse we have lived? edward: my forecast is higher for longer inflation, but that doesn't mean that it will not come down. i seriously doubt we will see 2%
inflation anytime soon again. will it come down to 3%, 4%? i think so. tom: i don't mean to interrupt, but this is critical. can this nation, can our viewers and listeners survive a sustained 3.5% inflation? edward: i think we mail -- may well learn to live with it, we have lived with covid. but it is not necessarily something that will persist forever. that hasn't been my outlook for next year, financial markets, the bond market. just seeing a peak in inflation let's say by the middle of the year, early summer, would be helpful. lisa: as we talk about these macro developments, the idea of the fed hiking rates, i go back to this case against bill hwang, the idea of leverage in the system.
he is being accused by the u.s. attorney's office of criminal acts, but it raises the question of what else is out there with respect to leverage, our visibility. how are you giving that in terms of what we can expect in the upcoming months? edward: as we all know, the federal reserve is increase the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, in a range of 25 to 50 basis points, but the markets are already discounting that something will break here when the fed starts to move more aggressively, when everyone expects in the may meeting that the fed will go ahead with a 50 basis point increase. the market has jitters like something will break. i see $3 trillion of excess liquidity left over from the past two years of helicopter money. but markets have their own agenda. lisa: to take that a step further, do you think the
safeguards in place to avoid something catastrophic, meltdown stemming from leverage, our secure enough to prevent that kind of action that people are taking the wrong lesson from previous times, because the system is much safer? edward: at the risk of being dead wrong, that is my interpretation. the system is more robust, the banks are in great shape, corporations are in great shape. consumers are sitting on a tremendous amount of m2 in demand deposits. not everyone is well-off and doing well. inflation is eroding everyone's purchasing power. but in terms of something breaking in the credit system, i don't see it. i am watching the junk bond yields to see whether that will signal some serious problems. so far, it is pretty calm. tom: we are going back to arthur burns rate moves, some people
talk 75 bps. did that work out the last time? edward: the burns environment is what we go to to look at the fed raising interest rates too little too late. eventually, volcker came in in the late 1970's and just let interest rates go up to levels that cause recession. we know that recessions always bring inflation down, but whether we can achieve a soft landing is the big controversy here. i suspect we either do or we get a real short and moderate recession. again, because i think the system is relatively robust. jonathan: ed yardeni, thank you. there was a note from deutsche bank in the last 24 hours. i read through the whole piece. this idea that they believe a hard landing is the base case
for them, the fed have to get the fed funds rate potentially into a range of 5% to 6%. that is not the base case on wall street right now. lisa: however, what would that do to an economy, the idea that inflation is so hot, that is what they need to do to curtail it? it is an outlier call, not only is it a recession base case, but severe recession resulting from that type of tightening. jonathan: futures are just about positive on the nasdaq, up a quarter of 1%. more so on the s&p. it's been an ugly 24 hours on the nasdaq. terrible month, difficult year. on the month, down 12%. coming up shortly, bob doll of cross mark. he was bearish. i wonder where he stands now? and then you are catching up with mary barra of gm. tom: i cannot say enough about
this interview. it is about the onslaught of electric vehicles and what it may mean for the single provider , mr. musk. all my research says no. jonathan: anyone trying to buy a car? bramo knows how difficult it is to get the car, how expensive it has become. lisa: not just expensive but difficult. there has been an issue with supply chains. jonathan: bramo drives all of us around because she is the only one of us that drives. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. the european union called it black male.
gas prices on the continent surged more than 20% after russia stopped natural gas flows to poland and bulgaria. moscow made good on a trip to cut off buyers if they didn't pay in rubles. some european companies have already paid rubles for gas. in china, there are signs authorities are starting to bring two major coronavirus outbreaks under control. shanghai hinted that locked on measures may be eased as infections dropped to a three-week low. the number of cases in beijing have stabilized. spacex has launched four astronauts to the international space station. it is the first nasa crew equally made up of men and women. it includes a first black woman making a long-term spaceflight, jessica watkins. t-mobile reported first-quarter profits that beat estimates. the second largest wireless carrier in the u.s. also raised its subscriber growth forecast. it is the strongest signal yet that t-mobile is capitalizing on its lead-in 5g.
shares of deutsche bank are falling. germany's largest lender signaled at cost reductions targeted for this year i'm being eaten up partially by wage inflation. that overshadowed wage gains across all operating divisions. and bowman has taken a long-awaited step to restart deliveries of the troubled 787 dreamliner. the company filed a certification plan with u.s. authorities. work has been largely halted for more than a year because of small structural flaws. meanwhile, bowen burned through more than $3.2 billion in the first quarter, worse than analysts expected. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg.
raising the shades of paul volcker and a deep recession we had then. i think that is very, extremely unlikely. tom: the former vice chairman, alan blinder, out of princeton university. lisa abramovitz, tom keene, an important conversation on general motors, much more with mary barra, the chief executive officer. you came out of general motors institute when we were kids in the midwest. then you got the job in the midwest, a co-up job at gm. you been doing this for a long time. i want you to talk about the manufacturing quality of general motors going back to 1937 and that classic movie on gm tolerances versus what we see from, for example, tesla.
how are gm cars built better than what elon musk is doing? mary: really appreciate the opportunity to be on today, thanks so much. before i dive into quality, i want to thank the entire general motors team, all of our partners for working hard to deliver such a strong first quarter. we continue the momentum on our ev and av journey. quality is an important part of that story. we have a demonstrated quality system with our global manufacturing system. i was just at the springhill plant last week looking at the cadillac we rick, and the vehicle is building perfectly. tom: i don't mean to interrupt but people want to know, do you have demonstrable evidence yet that people will move away from tesla to other electric vehicles because of manufacturing integrity? have you seen that in the research? mary: we know from the customer that by our bulk av and ev's,
they are some of the most satisfied in the industry. with our reservations with the silverado ev, about 60% are new to gm, coming from the east and west coast, where we have not sold as many vehicles. those are early indicators that, yes, we have great products now and the customers have responded. the interest, whether it is the hummer, lyriq, they are coming. tom: lisa has an order on the hummer. lisa: i don't, perhaps if there was space in new york city. you talked on the call, you expect to make 25% to 30% more vehicles this year than last year. how much of that relies on a reopening in china, continuing momentum in the u.s. economy? mary: definitely from a wholesale perspective, we see strength with the consumer especially with gm products.
we are watching this carefully with inflation and interest rates, but again, when we deliver vehicles to plants, most of them are sold or sold quickly. less than 12 days supplies of trucks in the u.s., which is extremely low when you look at our franchise. we are seeing strong demand. we think there is a lot of pent-up demand from the consumer, but we are watching it carefully. as it relates to china, we are seeing what we see as green shoots, cases coming down. so far it has been minimal impact. if what is happening now continues, we should be able to manage through from a supply chain perspective. lots of moving pieces but we are very optimistic, looking forward to be able to wholesale 25% to 30% more vehicles this year. lisa: have you shifted any of
your supply chain dynamics out of china in response to the roman lockdowns we have seen over the years? mary: when you look at the supply chain, it's a very complex supply chain. we are looking at lessons learned from semiconductors, covid, on how we need to strengthen our supply chain, make it more resilient. there are steps being taken on balance to make sure that we are not constrained like we have been for the last year and a half. tom: the new general motors institute, you go in there, there are all sorts of courses, electrical engineering, kilowatt hours. we want to know your battery trend in physics, in kilowatt hours, versus what others including tesla are doing. you have to build a better battery. i need an update. mary: we think we are very competitive with the batteries we have right now. with the chemistry we are launching right now with ultium,
we are in a leadership position. the silverado will have 400 miles of range, and that is less than one year away. we think we are in a leading position with our battery chemistry technology. we are working not only with lg but with solid energysolutions, and other partners. i have been in several meetings over the last several weeks talking to new battery makers. we want to make sure we have the best technology from an energy density, efficiency, cost perspective. the beauty of our ultium platform which is the base for our vehicles going forward, it is chemistry agnostic. as we see opportunity to use new and validated chemistry, we can do that with minimal disruption. lisa: i wonder if you see an opening for general motors to gain a competitive advantage
while tesla is dealing with elon musk's bid for twitter. is this an opportunity or more complication around the ev space? mary: we are focused on our plan of executing. today, we offer a full portfolio for all customers. when you look at what we will have from a chevy perspective, gmc -- lisa: sorry to cut you off, but do you have a response to the twitter issue, elon musk's bid? mary: no. as a company, we are going to see how the dynamics change, but right now we are focused on our ev execution. i don't think it plays into it. tom: running out of time. what do you see on the wage dynamics at your factories? what do you see in terms of wage inflation over the next 12 months? mary: first of all, we are very
proud that we have very competitive wages, from agm perspective in our facilities, we built the middle class from an automotive perspective. we are proud of that. as we bring people in, we are evaluating to see that we can bring people into our factories. it is not causing as an issue right now. tom: i want to come to detroit, i need to see the lions play. mary barra, chief executive officer at gm. she is trying to make a transition from auto stodgy over to technology, will she have to offer technology wages? lisa: that is the question across the board as everyone tries to compete with technology wages. interesting to see that they expect to produce 25% to 30% of vehicles. tom: more on bill hwang through the morning on radio and television. euro breaks down to 1.0553.
set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. quarterly beats getting little reward. >> earnings are not that bad. >> individual company earnings look solid. but that is not helping the share prices right now. >> we are seeing many different types of reaction depending on earnings. >> any slight earning guidance, weakness, they are sold. and they are sold hard. people are not asking questions, they are just saying adios. >> it was already pessi