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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  March 28, 2022 10:00am-11:00am EDT

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kailey: it is 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day on this monday, march 28. bonds brace for impact. the selloff continues as the 10-year treasury yield hits 2.5%. in japan, the boj steps in, driving the end to its weakest level in seven years. stealth rally. bitcoin erases its 2022 losses with a climb above $47,000. we will have more on the trajectory for the cryptocurrency and the prospect of a spot etf with grayscale's ceo. the biden administration scrambles to reframe the president's remarks calling for putin's removal from power. the kremlin calls it alarming and says no progress has been made in talks with ukraine, which continue in turkey this
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week. welcome to "bloomberg markets." on this monday, we had our eye on the bond market. guy: we do. trying to figure out exactly what the equity market thinks of the bond market i think is one of the big questions that everybody is trying to get the answer to. we came in this morning, trying to understand this tension, this threat potentially posed by the inversion you just mentioned to the equity market, and the equity market at the moment seems to have a fairly clear answer. we are going to continue to go higher. so kailey and my question of the day, how long can stocks ignore an inverted curve? here's my thoughts on this. our recessions bad for stocks? yes. is an inverted curve a signal of the recession? wendy: i'm not so sure about that 1 -- of a recession?
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i am not so sure about that one. the fed seems to be maybe not instantly, so maybe the market reaction does make sense right now. kailey: that is the view from jp morgan as well. it is still a long time into the future when you get that recession, but it is a question of whether or not an inverted curve is a good signal of a recession or if has lost its ability to serve that purpose. guy: think about the way the fed balance sheet is structured at the moment and you can kind of make that argument. lisa abramowicz, cohost of "bloomberg surveillance," kristine aquino, bloomberg markets editor for emea, joining to discuss. what do you think? the argument is that we've got an inverted curve, we are going to get a recession, yet there are so many competing factors at the moment that the line doesn't seem quite so clear. kristine: i think the signal we
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should read from this curve and version this time around may not be the same as what previous instances of an inversion have given us because the bond market has changed completely. this is not your grandma's bond market anymore. a lot of different factors contribute into that is what we have seen over the past decade, just a tremendous amount of buying that has really influenced the bond market in a singular way. so it is really difficult to mike that conclusion now just because it is such a different signal. as far as how much it impacts stocks or minute will impact stocks, i think it has a long way to go because we have not really seen the impact of higher bond yields yet filtering its way through the real economy. kailey: something else we have not seen is a real inversion of the curve that everybody really watches, which is the twos-tens. is that what will ultimately make the difference to the market? lisa: may be, although i keep thinking about what mike darda
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said this morning, where he said we are looking at the wrong yield curve. if you take a look at the gap between 10 year yields and three-month yields, it has widened to the widest going back to 2016. what does this tell us? it tells us the fed has it actually tightened all that much -- has not actually tightened all that much yet. when you look at credit spreads, stocks, just borrowing costs more broadly, they have gone down at a time when inflation is coming up. they have still been buying bonds up until just earlier this month. looking at all of this, how much does this leave us with truly tightened conditions, and does that mean that stocks will be really vulnerable we actually see some of the hikes everyone is protecting? guy: you have to look at the broad measures of financial conditions. are you now saying that that will be a better predictor of a recession coming forward as well, or just a buy/sell signal
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on stocks? lisa: honestly, i am just telling you what other people are saying. i am looking at other indicators on the ground that are concerning. the win is difficult to say. i will point out on friday, we actually saw a research out of the federal reserve themselves saying exactly this. don't fear the yield curve. it is not indicative of necessarily a recession in its own right. if you take a look at other measures, they are steepening. clearly the fed is trying to explain away the flattening yield curve a lot of people are looking at and raising alarm bells, which makes you wonder, basically this is not don't necessarily stop them from going ahead with some of the tightening plans. how will stocks respond when they start to enact some of what they have basically been saying they are going to do? kailey: we can talk about the stocks' response to that, but in the bond market, it is not even the end of march. how much further could the flattening of curves go as we
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see the fed actually acting on what it says in the dot plot? kristine: on the question of how much further, i think it is really important to take note of where the fed terminal rate is going to end up. i think that is really crucial for drawing the line underneath this bond selloff we are seeing because that would really give you a sense of when the turn in the fed policy path we are currently on will start to take place. it is possible that even if the peak in the federal reserve terminal rate doesn't come for another year or another 16 months or so, it is possible that the markets will start anticipating that month ahead, so it is really something to keep an eye on for a potential relief here. guy: another thing that intrigues me is the fed is basically signaling that growth is stronger than we first thought, i.e. we will have to step in and be more effective to slow this juggernaut down. lisa: you raise a really interesting question, which is do they think that growth is going to accelerate or that is going to accelerate and be such
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a concern that growth will remain strong enough to justify their moving very quickly. i would argue it is the latter. the question i have is how strong is that economy? how much momentum is there, especially if you get the one-two punch of fiscal withdrawal which we are seeing from the u.s. government at the same time you are getting a stagflationary shock from the war in ukraine by russia? so the stew of factors the fed is looking at an saying all we know is we have to move, they have not yet, of course, but when we asked whether stocks are paying attention, my question is are they paying attention to the fed hiking, or is it that the fed is going to need to slow demand, to slow the economy much more than people expected, in order to affect any kind of dampening of inflation? kailey: that is on the fed side. kuroda and the boj are not.
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that is becoming very very clear. i wonder what you make of the moves overnight to drain jgb? kristine: i think the fact that they felt compelled to ask twice -- to act twice today to cap those bond yields tells you all you need to know about how the boj ultimately moves. the boj has proven time and again it is a central bank that really does not like any markets moving much faster than it is comfortable with, and they have proven time and again they will act against any of those rapid moves. that is what we saw today. more importantly, i think it is really traders turning their sites to the boj on the more dovish end of the central bank sector that we have seen and really daring them to finally get on that normalization train. guy: the other question that occurs to me is clearly there's a carry trade involved in what is happening. carry trades normally work in low volatility environments.
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how risky is this to put on? kristine: very risky because given the broader environment, you usually think of emerging markets as the usual targets for these carry trades. but any sort of environment where the yen is doing what it is, hitting its weakest levels in a decade or more, then the potential targets for those carry trades, which would be emerging markets, are still undergoing a very volatile, vulnerable period because of the broader risk off environment we are in. i think on both sides of that trade, investors would be brave, only the brave ones would be willing to take it this point. kailey: bloomberg's kristine aquino and lisa abramowicz, thank you for joining us. coming up, it was a time of bell bottom pants, vinyl records, and oil embargoes. that is the last time we saw inflation like this. we will talk about what that means for investors with linda duessel, senior equity
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strategist for federated is bloomberg.ming up. ♪
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>> as the shift in the risk
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moves much more towards inflation, equities relatively speaking are more attractive. they are a real asset. the dividends will grow over time with inflation and the overall valuation in parts of the equity market look reasonably attractive. kailey: that was peter oppenheimer of goldman sachs saying that equities can weather the current bond rout, which takes us back to our question of the day. how long can stocks ignore an inverted curve? linda duessel is joining us. linda: first of all, we at federated hermes disagree that we have an inverted curve because history shows you want to look at the three month and the 10 year for clues on whether or not the market is weakening into recession. we don't think you are seeing evidence yet from the yield curve that there is a recession on the horizon.
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too much cash in the system, the fed has to really walk a tight rope, and that is what we think is the biggest risk this year is the fed. guy: what kind of odds would you put on that? is a recession is bad for stocks , what chance is there that the fed delivers a recession here rather than a soft landing? linda: of course, the fed is the one who has given us recessions by tightening too far, but now they have to try to take it away as it has been spectacular, so the odds are not good, and i think that is what is going on. even this rally that we have
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seen has been more of a defensive rally, and you have seen areas like utilities break out, as people think it may be best until we can get some sense as to whether inflation comes down. kailey: speaking of the federal reserve and inflation, where you come down on the kind of tina thesis of this moment? linda: we have said tina for quite some time. we would never suggest that some buddy be completely out of government bonds. pretty much everybody is in agreement that yields are coming up. if yields go up, you're going to lose money, and therefore there is no alternative to owning bank
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equities, so the best thing we can do in an environment like this where we don't see recession on the horizon in the near term, when we see interest rates are climbing as they should do and it is taking away the easy money, it is to find pockets of the market where it is less expensive, where we have some things on sale. so we are's adjusting numerous areas. guy: kailey is very excited about the return of flares and bellbottoms. she wants to get back to the 1970's. are we going back to the 1970's? linda: i lived in the 1970's. those were very interesting times. when double-digit interest rates came down, little did we know we would go 40 years without interest rates declining, therefore two whole generations never saw anything like what we are seeing right now. this is not stagflation. it is a booming economy where
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you have record job openings, record numbers of people working where businesses have strong profit margins and are able to push through price increases. stagflation needs on them, to go up. unemployment is going down. we should not worry about that. it is not the 1970's, not yet. kailey: skinny jeans, can confirm, have been canceled, at least until that trend comes back around as well. you were talking about pricing power and the ability for companies to pass on the higher input costs they are facing. do you anticipate that inflation will get to a level that will start to see consumer pushback, and the tolerance for those higher prices start to not be there? linda: absolutely, that is true. one of my biggest worries is that the price of energy and food supplies is going up.
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this is what is really difficult , particularly in a midterm election year. that is very much a problem. you are also seeing people looking to buy homes that are saying sticker shock, there is no way i can do this. we know that there is no better solution to high prices then high prices, and demand goes down, so we are seeing that go down a bit, but service pricing is going up, as we know. guy: on a scale of one to 10, how much risk are you advising? do you want to be all in on growth? you want to be owning stocks with an exposure to that growth? where would i went to be right now? linda: yes, your comment about should we go all in, we are suggesting an equity overweight.
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the amount is really as low as it was when we were just coming out of that 2008, 2 thousand nine recession, so we are basically in a neutral situation right now. what we are suggesting people do a neutral situation is you want to underweight bonds, interest rates going up, but you want to look for areas where there is value, and there is still value in the high quality dividend oriented places of the market place. so you saw the staples sector, which this whole area has been avoided completely. staples started to go up, the energy patch has some pretty good yields in it, and there's the -- and there is no particular end in sight. look at telco stocks. nobody much cares about those either, so these are some of the areas where we think there is still value to be had.
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high quality, dividend oriented stocks, it is a turtle wins the race type of thing. thanks -- banks are kind of back on sale, but we are more in the value camp than the growth camp. guy: good to catch up. really appreciate your time today. what are we going to talk about next? tesla looking for shareholder approval for its second stock split in a couple of years. shares are up on the news, which is jon ferro has been point again -- has been pointing out, seems nonsensical. but maybe there is method to the madness. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: shares of tesla up today. the electric carmaker plans to ask for approval for a stock split. bloomberg's ed ludlow is in san francisco. we need to talk about this, talk about what is happening in shanghai. let's focus first of all on what is happening with the stock split. musk talks about this being an accessibility issue, i.e. split the stock, allow more people to buy it. in theory, this should have no impact. my question is why now. why do this right now? do they feel the stock needs a boost, or is it something else? ed: the timing is interesting. they communicated that they wanted to do a stock split via a tweet. they said they would give more details in advance of the annual shareholders meeting. we don't have a date for the annual shareholders meeting. in past years it has been in october, june, september.
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wall street analysts seem to think it will be in october. you're right that it is about lowering the barriers to entry. elon musk and others have talked about how the retail investor, which are often people that own tesla cars, tesla products, understand the company so much better than wall street does. he does not really give a lot of credit to institutional investors on how they analyze the company and its different units. so did the -- so they did this in august 2020. a subsequent run-up in the stocks followed. kailey: let's talk about tesla's actual business, which is at the end of the day producing cars. that will be harder to do in china this week. that shanghai factory had to close because of covid curbs. can you text allies how important that is to the company? ed: tesla's shanghai plant accounts for almost half of annual production at the moment. new plants are coming online,
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but we don't know what their capacity as annually and how many vehicles they are going to produce in the near term. what you have in shanghai is the first phase of a lockdown, four days through april 1, and sources tell us that in shanghai, tesla has halted production east of the river where tesla is located in shanghai. the reason your question is so good is because tesla has spent a lot of time on localizing supply chain in china. it is not just about the volume of vehicles that tesla produces there, but also the profit profile. the margins on model y and model threes out of china are much higher than out of california. so if they are to halt for several days, it could have a substantive impact because they've had a lot of momentum there in building cars not just for domestic markets, but enforcing them as well. kailey: thank you so much. we did not get a chance to ask ed about it, but elon musk
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tweeting today that he supposedly thinks he has covid. it is not a great feeling. guy: not a great feeling, but he seems to have his mind focused elsewhere. i don't know as an investor how you look at tesla. it was really interesting what ed said about people owning the cars may be have a better understanding of the business than wall street does right now. wall street must be really confused, getting tweets out of left field, trying to figure out what is happening out of shanghai. does elon musk haven't covid have any material impact? i don't know. kailey: and should tesla be trading at the multiple at his? i think an open question -- multiple that it is? i think i nope and question. terry haines, pangea policy founder, will be joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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kailey: we are in our end of the u.s. trading session. bloomberg's abigail doolittle is tracking the moves. stock action not all that exciting as it seems to be another asset classes. abigail: first, taking a look at what is working for stocks, tech performing the nasdaq 100 -- tech outperforming on the nasdaq 100. a possible stock split makes it more friendly to retail investors, helps the optics, takes it from $1000 per share to some lower number. a amazon up 1%, no higher on the year. tech helping out as yields fall. the 10 year yield done about three basis points at 2.43 percent. still unbelievably high. oil down 7%, wti weighing on the commodity index and many of the energy movers, including a patchy halliburton.
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it still seems as though we have a parabolic uptrend. at about $95 per barrel, it seems as though oil will very quickly go down. it really seems like, as have been the rsi, we could see crude oil go back to its 200 a moving average. it is rising, right below $80 per barrel, but many continue to think you could see oil go even lower than that. stay, but certainly another tailwind for stocks. guy: thank you very much, indeed. let's talk about what is being perceived as a gaffe over the weekend from the president. the biden administration basically spending the last few hours backtracking after the president made this remark at the end of his speech in poland. pres. biden: we will have a
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brighter future routed into -- future routed in democracy and freedom of possibility. for god's sake, this man cannot remain in power. guy: bloomberg's annmarie hordern is in warsaw for us and joins us now. was it a reflection maybe of what the current thinking is within the white house? is this what is now within the corridors of power within d.c.? annmarie: i'm not sure we can say that just yet because the white house has done a lot to not exactly say they don't agree with what the president was saying, but say this is not u.s. policy. secretary of state antony blinken made that very clear yesterday while on a visit in israel, saying this is not u.s. policy, that is not what the
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white house is trying to reflect. one u.s. official offered up this was the president may be speaking a low but from the heart after the fact that he had just met refugees who have fled ukraine, who have fled the assault, and also president biden, when asked what he now things are president putin, he said he's a butcher. this just goes a little bit further from that already heightened rhetoric. kailey: i vesely the allies were not pleased with these -- obviously the allies were not that pleased with these remarks. did it do any damage to the diplomatic efforts and advancements that had been made in the prior days on his trip to europe? annmarie: that is the concern of some of these leaders in europe, especially emmanuel macron.
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he said there should be no escalation, verbal or not. it does not replica what nato think in terms of regime change. when it comes to the kremlin, while they say this is narrowing the windows of opportunity for diplomacy and it does not help, we should note that president putin already thinks this. he has thought this for years. there were mass protests in russia in 2011, and he directly thought the united states was behind this. hearing this would not be something new, but there is concern that potentially, at least when it comes to the coverage of it, what the president said, those last nine words really overshadowed the entire speech. kailey: thank you so much for your great reporting over the
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last several days. joining us with more is terry haines, pangea policy founder. how much damage did that one were mark from the president over the weekend? terry: i'm sorry to say that i think it is a big deal for a variety of reasons. presidents should always be precise about what american policy is, and the best thing you can say about this is it was imprecise, but it was imprecise on a very grave matter, on whether regime change or not. it is not a small thing if you look back historically at the entirety of the cold war. we had normalized relationships with russia. we had a normalized relationship with china since 1971. we have not called for regime change lightly, so to do it
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off-the-cuff is worse because then you've got the backfilling and all the rest. you come from a nato summit, which actually compounds it, because all the allies thought they knew they -- thought they knew where they were going when they left the summit. it has consequences. guy: do you think it was a mistake? i asked with relation to the sanctions policy going forward. if we were to see a cease-fire, if we were to see the war in ukraine coming to an end, using the fact that putin would still be in power -- to using the fact that putin would still be in power would mean that sanctions would largely remain in place? to get sanctions lifted, does
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the war have to end, or do we need to see regime change ultimately in russia? terry: i think it is the start of the end. the policy is that dissensions continue until president putin is no longer there. now the white house is backpedaling and saying we are no longer interested in regime change. the question of what united states policy is [please stand by]
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-- some sort of drug pricing regulation. there will be a very small build back better piece of legislation that will be paid for in part by some sort of tax on the wealthy, and i think it will be less grandiose than the one the president has proposed now, which isn't even particularly big. it is a $36 billion tax hall. but all democrats are aligned on the question of, i think for
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maybe senator sinema, being ok with additional taxation to do some small things. i think today it is likely that they get it. guy: bashing billionaires into millionaires maybe even something that gives a good idea. grade you get your updates. really enjoyed your note this morning. terry haines, pangaea policy founder. bitcoin has had some thing of a steady rally over the last couple of weeks. we will talk to the ceo of grayscale, michael sonnens hein, joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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angel: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm angel feliciano. coming up, libby cantrill, on "balance of power." this is bloomberg. ♪
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keeping you up-to-date with the news from around the world, here is the first word. i'm angel feliciano. the city of shanghai will be locked down in two phases to conduct a mass testing blitz for coronavirus. the outbreak is challenging china's zero-tolerance approach like never before. residents will be barred from leaving their home. public transport and car hailing services will be suspended. there have been a number of requests recently -- the u.s. is reassessing the political cost of reviving the 2015 pact. the agreement limited iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sections relief, including on oil exports. a stunning moment at the oscars.
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actor will smith slapped presenter chris rock and was later awarded the oscar for best actor. rock jokes that smith's wife could be in the next "g.i. jane" movie, a reference to her short hair. she has alopecia, a disease that causes hair loss. smith later apologized, but did not mention rock. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm angel feliciano. this is bloomberg. kailey: thank you. i would love to discuss will smith and chris rock and everything that went down at the oscars, but and fortunately, we do need to talk about the markets and focus on cryptocurrencies in particular because bitcoin has now erased all of this year's losses. that has the cryptocurrency bulls predicting it could go past $50,000 soon. joining us is the ceo of grayscale, michael's on -- michael's on chin -- michael's
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on and shine -- michael sonnenshein. what is your production about the trajectory through 2022? michael: it has been a choppy year across all asset classes, so i think it is an exciting morning in the crypto community to see losses erased. i think what we are seeing is a couple of native crypto buyers by for their own reserves, as well as now we are actually seeing in the cme futures all-time open interest on that side as well, leading to a bit of a short squeeze in the futures, and thus the bitcoin prices this morning. guy: there was a lot of talk about the fact that institutions will be stepping into this market in a big way. what are you seeing from institutions? which ones are stepping up? which ones aren't? michael: what is really
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encouraging is some of the traditional players continuing to get into crypto trading. some new firms like cowen and others have begin trading and offering crypto services as well, and on the investor side, there is no question amongst investors that crypto as an asset class is here to stay, so all of the firms they work with for advisory or custodianship are all beginning to offer crypto products and services, and that is leading to greater adoption, as well as investor appetite to diversify into the asset class. kailey: speaking of how investors can get into this asset class, there obviously is an etf for that. what there is not is a spot etf, and that is obviously something grayscale has been actively pursuing. you have asked people to write into the sec. what do you expect the consequent of those letters to be in ultimately how this is going to come up when it comes to sec approval? michael: we are putting the full resources of our firm behind converting the flagship fund into an etf.
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it is really important that investors know that we will continue to advocate for them, but their voice can be heard through this process as well. the sec has opened up this commentary for investors to advocate why they want an etf, why it will offer greater protection. this is a really important part of the process. it is owned by investors and there is now over 800,000 accounts in the u.s. waiting patiently to have it converted to an etf. guy: what do you think gary gensler actually wants hair? what is his objective in terms of what happens next with you, with the market? do you think he needs or wants control of the underlying market before he's willing to take the step of giving you guys that option? terry: the sec -- michael: the sec has encouraged a lot of crypto participants to come in and register with them, and gary in the current sec administration has moved the
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ball forward. it was really a very exciting announcement that we now have bitcoin futures etf's in the market, but unfortunately that has forced investors into those bitcoin futures products because those are the only ones that exist. so we are really encouraged by that, as well as the recent executive order causing more federal agencies to focus on crypto, and ultimately we believe it is a matter of when, not if, a spot bitcoin etf is approved. kailey: if it is denied, would you look at the option of an apa lawsuit? michael: i think all options are on the table. i think it is important that between now and the end of that process that the sec hears from as many investors as possible, as well as academics, policymakers. everybody has an opportunity to weigh in on this issue, and all of that is considered as the essence e-waste -- as the sec weighs the issue in front of them. guy: in terms of the most likely route to get to an etf getting
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approved, what do you think the most obvious trajectory that we are on now is? what do using is the most likely outcome here? if you were to pick an outcome of how you get to where you are now with that etf being approved, what does it look like? michael: gb tc today has been traded since 2015 and it has been an sec reporting company since january 2020, so every single day it is trading, it is being bought and sold by investors and not being folded into the familiarity and the protections of the etf wrapper. we don't feel that the sec is doing everything they can to actually protect investors. what is missing is the last to key components we are seeking from the sec. they could have that simultaneous creation and redemption process that would keep the shares trading in line with its net asset values. kailey: it has traded at a 25% to 30% discount for the entire month of march, has that
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influenced demand at all? terry: i think what is so exciting -- michael: i think what is so exciting for investors is when they think about putting on crypto exposure, they can take a dollar and put it into the spot market or take a dollar inputted into gbtc and buy bitcoin exposure, so investors understand that over time, if and when gbtc converts, that will converge poser to the net asset value. for most investors there is a trade-off, and those that have the longer-term time horizon for their bitcoin exposure actually see it as a big and exciting potential for them. guy: is that an opportunity for you? how do you take advantage of that in some shape or form? michael: it is an opportunity for investors. if you have a long enough time
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horizon, you have conviction that the sec will approve spot bitcoin etf applications, then you do have the ability to buy at an exposure to the market. you have seen that be the case where gbtc is held inside bejewel funds and retirement accounts. kailey: michael, thanks for joining us in the studio today. really appreciate it. if you're interested in more crypto conversation, tune into "bloomberg crypto," tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. new york time. we will be speaking to katie stockton, founder and managing partner of fairly strategies. -- of fair lead strategies. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: the clocks changed in
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europe this weekend. we are back to the five hours between new york and london. what are we looking like here in europe? stocks up by 0.4%. we are now trading at 455. . take a look at the front end of the german curve as the 10-year portion of the curve, a bid when it comes to the bund, one basis point. carlsberg which of the two big brewers in europe today, saying it is abandoning europe. could be a big financial hit. we will talk about that in the next hour. bilal hafeez is going to join us, macro hive ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> monday the 20th. european stocks are higher. the countdown to the close
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starts right now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: 30 minutes to the close here in europe. the carmakers actually having a fairly good session today. the london market is flat. oil is down. commodity stocks under a bit of pressure. the cac and the dax both higher. we are on offer at the front end of the german curve. keep an eye on what is happening with these curves. more and more companies continue to be forced to exit russia.


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