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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  January 25, 2022 7:00am-8:01am EST

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♪ >> there is a lot on for the market to digest. >> the fed is more likely to be responsive to credit conditions than they are to the s&p 500. >> i think the outlook for the balance of the year is a bit more constructive. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. -->> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down by 1.3% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, we are down by almost 2%. tom: a different character to yesterday before the fun and festivities of dow 1000. part of it is getting earnings.
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i am seeing verizon come up with a modest beat on first glance. these earnings are not a small issue. again, it goes to what we talked about in the last hour and this market, which is that every story, there's two different stories. there's two different fed stories. there's two different company stories out there as well. jonathan: two views make a market. dan ives of wedbush, "we view this as the most important earnings season for the tech space and potentially the last decade." what do you make of that? tom: to me, it is the partitioning coming out of the pandemic of who is going to win and who is going to lose. i just want to say, this is exciting, and whatever your belief, i love what doug kass said about an hour ago. you alluded to this earlier. the bulls dig in. the bears dig in.
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that's what we've got. jonathan: nothing has changed. jp morgan says the bearishness is overdone. morgan stanley and mike elson say hibernate, winter is here. lisa: a lot of this has to do with what is the main concern driving the risk off feel. is it the fed meeting that begins today? is it a gross concern with respect to the omicron variant, just a slowing down in the economy? is it simply that people feel like valuations have gone to high? that will define how you view this. -- view this period of jitters. jonathan: we need to talk about geopolitics as well. the u.s. putting 8500 troops on alert to bolster the native presence in europe. that is the latest headline of the last 24 hours. tom: i'm going to link that away from equities. i think this got strong link with -- strong linkage in commodities and with oil from russia, but much more in the bond market and watching german
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10-year, watching the dynamics here, the yield curve a little bit steeper in the last 48 hours of volatility. jonathan: back through 1%, going back to chairman powell and that that decision. on the s&p, we are -1.3%. on the nasdaq 100, we are down by almost 1.9%. yields are just a little bit higher on tends to -- on tens to 1.78%. euro-dollar, 1.1268. lisa: it has been interesting to see the dollar move in a rain bound wave -- in a range bound way. at 9:00 a.m., the s&p corelogic home price index comes out. how much does it start to decelerate, and what does that tell us about rent? there's a big question behind the fed meeting that begins today, which is at what point does inflation become constrictive, and how quickly
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does it do that? at 10 a clock a.m. will get the u.s. conference board consumer confidence for the month of january, which has been really showing a deterioration in consumer confidence. art of this has to do with omicron. part of this has to do with the fiscal runoff in terms of checks no longer coming out. the economic surprise index bloomberg has put out has been trending lower. microsoft, the big tech role of earnings, will release. it is going to be a crucial point, as dan ives was saying, to see all of their earnings. how much momentum can they sustain, and how much can they justify valuations as people -- valuations that people think broadly are pretty high? jonathan: netflix, a 200 billion dollars plus stock. just unreal. lisa: netflix is suggesting they
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are still not getting close to the pre-pandemic subscriber numbers. jonathan: what a move. you will hear a lot on numbers like that that the fed is behind the curve. david stubbs says otherwise. the interest rate market is assuming that the fed will be more than enough to prevent inflation becoming out of control. even stubbs joins us, the global head of cross asset strategy -- cross asset the medic strategy at jp morgan -- cross asset thematic strategy at j.p. morgan chase. david: i think a lot has changed in the last couple of months. we off saw the fed pivot away from an emphasis on the labor market and the employment population base and participation rate, and move with a lot of hawkish rhetoric to move the markets toward pricing close to four rate hikes this year versus seven over the next two years. you can then look at the yield curve two years out. it is flat as a pancake, but
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still slightly positive. if you look at a whole range of forward indicators, the indicator is that inflation will come down roughly towards target. the market has priced in quite a significant tightening cycle, and i think the market is also saying that is probably going to be enough. tom: the dow -300. the vix up three big figures. i loved your interview on technology and its effect on society. within investment strategy and stock selection, what is the risk of ignoring the technological divide, the companies that are technology winners and those that aren't? how do you partition that? david: i think you emphasize one of the great drivers of relative stock prices throughout this decade. if you are enabling technology, bringing new innovations into
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the field, or an adopter, a large company, an incumbent investing hard to bring technologies, i think the future is very bright not just for market share, but also for debt margins. this technology is about improving the employee experience. that is the kind of unglamorous stuff that is the root cause of margins within companies. i think those that embrace technology will be able to withstand the significant cost pressures that we are likely to see this decade from very anemic working age population growth in the developed world. over 60 countries globally we are going to see falling working age population. it is going to put in place a pressure on the margin, and our next couple of quarters, the margin pressure is absolutely extreme. we see wage increases very
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strong. we see an increase in energy inputs, and now the price of money is rising as well. this going to be some companies and industries that will struggle a little bit in the next couple of quarters. i agree with the statement at the start that this is a very important to earnings season. the next two or three are going to be very important. lisa: will the winners all be big companies that can take advantage of economies of scale, and will smaller companies really fall behind? david: i certainly think today, some of the large caps that dominate the market are high-quality in terms of if you look at their balance sheets, their earnings profile, the return on equity. they have a lot of the criteria that we put in the quality bucket. but i also think that innovation is rampant in the smaller stocks as well, and especially looking outside of traditional benchmarks, we have a few
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strategies we have recently been launching where up to 50% of these companies are outside of our world, and i think a forward-looking projection for markets that is a little lower than we have come to expect in the last few decades, investors are going to have to work harder to find that rapid growth, and that definitely includes companies across the capitalization spectrum, and indeed the private markets, where technology obviously incubates. jonathan: thank you. it is good to see you, as always. i want to turn back to that quote from dan ives of webb push, very well-known tech bubble -- of wedbush, very well-known tech bull. you brought up netflix a few times this morning, after earnings getting absolutely battered. lisa: if you take a look at your to date earnings, and year to date frankly returns, you can
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see the nasdaq has actually outperformed the s&p 500 by about 2%. still the haven trade is some of these big fortress balance sheets, the apples of the world, the amazons and the microsofts. however, at what point do they say they consisting valuations without fed support? jonathan: i have to say, if the stock is down by 1/3 in just a few weeks, it is not just earnings, is it? tom: i differ to paul sweeney on this, who will join me on another property at 9:00 a.m. sweeney is expert on this. all of these people spending on the movies you watch all weekend. what i would point out, do you look at the balance sheet as lisa mentioned, or do you look at the income statement generation of cash? i just looked at 3m and their cash conversion cycle, and the stock got a little but of a pop. you can say the same thing about
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microsoft, that what people are buying is less the cash on the balance sheet and much more the ability to earn cash. then the question is how far out do you extrapolate to justify the evaluation of these wonder companies? that is going to be in play in the coming days. jonathan: goldman had this to say, "driven by a valuation the rating rather than improving expectations." that is the difference between the start of this year and the start of last year. tom: into a chinese like economic boom last year, which i'm sure we don't have that. jonathan: geoff yu of bny mellon is going to be joining us in about 50 minutes. futures down 1.3% on the s&p, on the nasdaq down by 1.8%. yields just a little bit higher, 1.77 60% on tens. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word
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news, i'm ritika gupta. the kremlin warns the u.s. decision to put 8500 troops on alert for deployment in eastern europe exacerbates the tensions. the biden administration says if the troops are sent overseas, they would help nato forces in the region. more than 100,000 russian troops have been deployed near the border with ukraine. moscow denies it is planning an invasion. more problems for british prime minister boris johnson over allegations of those rule breaking parties during the pandemic. london police are now investigating the claims and johnson's office has confirmed that some gathered in downing street to celebrate his birthday during the first lockdown in 2020. a government report on the parties may be published this week. that could add to the palooka pressure on johnson. shares of general electric are lower today. ge's fourth-quarter revenue missed estimates. the company was hurt by supply chain pressures and the effects of the omicron variant. it is a setback for ge ceo larry culp's plans to break up the
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conglomerate next year. there's is doubt on whether the u.s.'s costliest naval ship can defend itself. tests of the uss gerald ford said that the long-term recovery systems are poor or of unknown reliability. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we have been consulting with allies and deployments for alternate scenarios. we have always said we would reinforce our allies on the eastern flank, and those conversations and discussions have been part of what our national security officials have been discussing with their counterparts now for several weeks. in fact, we have never ruled out the option of providing additional assistance i advance of an invasion. jonathan: jen psaki, the white house press secretary. from new york, with tom keene
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and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. down 1.3% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, down by 1.8%. treasury yields not doing much on the long end. crude unchanged, $83.33. some dollar strength against the euro. euro-dollar, 1.1272, -0.5%. tom: stasis in the last hour is how i would put it, with less of a coordinated tightness. what did you do when you woke up from the "surveillance" map and saw megan 200 dow points? jonathan: i thought -- nap and saw -200 out points? jonathan: i thought, that was quick. to go down almost 5% and finish that a positive 0.5%, pretty remarkable stuff. tom: i take huge value in
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catharsis in that analysis. we have heard some experts speak of their guesstimates. let us move on right now. this is really a joy because i will introduce annmarie hordern different this time. she is our bloomberg washington correspondent, but at an appallingly young age, she has lent the geography of europe to her resume. working out of london, going to moscow. it is all very romantic, except it is mostly plane flights at 9:00 p.m. and taking the gatwick drive into london, which is about as romantic as they drive from o'hare in chicago. you've got great european perspective. just as a general statement as you read the european press, how is biden, his discussion of kiev, how is that playing within paris or london or berlin site diced -- or berlin zeitgeist? annmarie: in paris in particular, you have emmanuel
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macron, the president is going to be conducting his own interview. he wants to have a call himself with president putin. then you have french domestic elections and marine le pen, who is leading quite highly in the polls, talking about sanctions on russia if that is going to hurt domestically. you have a boisterous response from london, as you see from the foreign office. prime minister boris johnson is going to be making a statement on ukraine, even as he is very much under a lot of domestic sure. berlin is wavering. they are talking tough at many times. at the same time, they do not want to supply ukraine with military aircraft, to the point that the british didn't even fly over german airspace to deliver their aircraft to the ukrainians. tom: when we saw the headline of blinken in geneva and he talked about an open door nato policy, how does that play in europe? annmarie: what comes to mind for
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me is finland. just north of estonia, we spent time there together in helsinki during the trump-putin summit. if you remember, finland in 2014, there was a lot of debate within the country following the annexation of crimea. should finland finally make the plunge and join nato? this is something president vladimir putin categorically does not want. the president, interestingly enough, mentioned finland in eight recent press conference, and what did finland do following this escalation at the end of last year on the border of ukraine? in the new year's address, he says we maintain the option to join nato when we want to. right now in helsinki, there's a lot of support for that given the measures and the aggressiveness russia is taking, and not just on the border of ukraine. we are talking about russia talking about wargames in
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belarus, as well as off the coast of ireland. lisa: first several years we have been talking about the u.s. taking a more isolationist and nationalist approach. right now, president biden is trying to put himself out there as a leader of this international coalition. how much has this been informed by what happened in afghanistan? annmarie: you kind of hit the nail on the head in terms of what president putin once. president putin once that withdrawal from the united states. he does not want a heavy american hand on europe. many will point to the fact that potentially, putin is doing this because of that u.s. withdrawal from afghanistan, because the u.s. wants to pivot to the end of pacific and internally. this is the pivot of the pivot. the u.s. was supposed to use these next few years talking about bolstering its efforts around china, and now it is having to retreat back to europe . but the thing is, even though president putin likely applauded the clumsy and chaotic
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withdrawal from kabul, at the same time, this did not deter president putin in 2008 when he rolled tanks through georgia, or in 2014 when he annexed crimea. so i think he is just using the calculus of a potentially weakened west in general. does -- there's brexit, there's merkel, there's a number of factors. tom: the cigar bar in helsinki, i think that was important. jonathan: are you revealing what you two were doing when you were meant to be working? alison: tom --annmarie: tom had a cigar, i had an abril spritz -- an aperol spritz. jonathan: just quickly, were you in the conference yesterday? annmarie: i wasn't, but i obviously saw it. the president was incredibly frustrated, and he let his frustration show.
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if we are going to call a spade a spade, i think you would have seen that clip rolling and it would have gotten a lot of heat if this was the former president, and i do believe some of the press also wants to take that heat up on this current president, but i would say a very adult like in classy fashion the president called that reporter from fox news, and they talk it out, and i think he handled himself well, that reporter. jonathan: citi just publishing, i want to read this in full, "in recent years, market volatility has been a reason for the fed to become more dovish. that logic knew longer holds, while fed officials will want to minimize start movements and markets. a tightening of financial conditions is now the desired outcome. if anything, hawkish risk at tomorrow's meeting has increased given some investors now expecting dovish reaction to the decline in equity prices." that is the game, tk. tom: it is a parlor game.
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i'm sorry. we've got geoff yu coming up. it will be great to dive into this with him. jonathan: we are down 2% on the nasdaq, down 1.4% on the s&p. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: i love that line from citi this morning. a tightening of financial conditions is the desired outcome for this federal reserve. "if anything, the risk has now increased of a hawkish tilt to tomorrow's meeting because most of us to expect a dennis reaction." -- a dovish reaction." the nasdaq 100 is down by 1.9%. the moves have been absolutely unreal. we have had six of these where we have dropped more than 4% and finished in positive territory. six of these since 1988. just look at the moves in the last 24 hours. absolutely brutal. at the lows in the middle of the session, then bouncing back and
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finishing positive on the nasdaq by 0.5%, zero point 6%. we have talked about this rotation are the first three weeks of this year. for some, a reminder of what happened last year. goldman sachs coming out with a key distinction for me. this time, the valuation story has been critical. this rotation has been driven by a valuation derating and not a repricing of growth expectations. that is the difference between now and last year. you just wonder whether that is the next fear. you start with inflation, then you move to the policy response, and the growth fears and apple to -- fears naturally come down the road. tom: i've got on the bloomberg a des screen of 35, estimated up to june 2022. on the valuation derating, do the big defensive get pulled in, even if they do well? jonathan: some of that driven by
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what is happening at the front end of the curve. twos, tens and 30's, twos up five basis points through 1%. we backed away from that level in the last couple of days, but we are breaching it once more. this curve is flatter. it has been flattening over the last couple of weeks or so. that is an important view. if you believe in that story that grace risks are down the road, and mike wilson of morgan stanley does, that is what you're looking for in the bond market. lisa: although other people say this mark it has been so heavily influenced by fed policy, it does not act as the same signal it has in the past. ask people about yield curve contraction and you will get 10 different responses if you ask 10 different people. jonathan: lisa, i'm with you. tens right now, 1.7760%. let's get you some single names and say good morning to romaine. romaine: keep an eye on microsoft and ibm, two names prior to yesterday that were
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really talked about for their defensive properties. we got earnings out of ibm last night, about 6.5% growth on the top line, but the gains the company made in its cloud business provided a lot of optimism that some of these old-line tech companies have supplies. shares lower in the premarket. microsoft one to report earnings after the bell. the shares are down slightly today. they have been doing well prior to yesterday's selloff. this is pretty much a cloud-based company now. more than 1/3 of their revenue comes from that cloud division. investors and analysts looking for about 20% growth for microsoft. keep an eye on nvidia as well. shares down 4% in the premarket area bloomberg reporting the company may be abandoning buying chip designer arm. flip up the board. american express beatings earnings -- express beating
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earnings in the most recent quarter. they also raised their guidance, projecting right now 20% growth for the year on revenue, more than double the previous forecast. shares only up 0.5%. ge, which is splitting into three companies, down 3%. the only growth they had was from that aviation business, which is going to be the strongest business, but even with the growth you had, that was well below what analysts were looking for. all of the other divisions had a decline in growth and a decline that was worse than expect it. j&j down almost 2% on the day. they did eat on a few main metrics, but investors want to see a little bit more growth there. tom: romaine bostick, thank you so much. right now, i'm going to ask one question and get out of the way. winnie cisar joins us from credit sites -- from creditsights, global head of strategy. what is fascinating here is the dynamics and the things we can
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learn from the credit market and particularly high-yield. there is this phrase, yield to worst. we have yield to worse and out worse now. there's a point where you step in and by the price for yields to come down. are we there at this moment? winifred: we're just about there. have been telling investors that 5% yields to worst for high-yield was the level we thought was much more attractive . we got there yesterday with the market volatility that we saw. high-yield is off to a pretty rocky start to start the year. this was the worst january performance on record at this point, worse than the 2016 commodity selloff, worse than 2008 as well. we think at this point, given the amount of cash still on the sidelines and the need to generate some income in this
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inflationary environment, 5% on high-yield doesn't look too shabby. lisa: let's talk about the credit markets as an important functioning tool that the federal reserve looks at. they are not going to get that concerned about the stock market selloff if you see the fixed income market, in particular credit, behaving. you talk about the 5% level, but if you look at credit spreads, the extra premium investors charge over benchmark rates has stayed incredibly tame for the riskiest securities. what is the message you get from that? winnie: the message we get from that is that investors need to expect a very low default environment this year. nobody has expect of economic growth to really rollover yet, and with that, borrowing conditions and the credit market have remained pretty favorable to issuers, which means companies are going to continue to enjoy access to at levels that are still very attract relative to historic norms, despite the fact that we have
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seen yields move higher overall. so the price action we have seen in the credit gets has been much more collateral damage from equity and rates volatility rather than the credit market sending a signal that liquidity is really drying up across the financial markets. we view that is generally constructive. lisa: talk about what this means as rates are expected to continue to rise and become more normal, whatever that. at what point does that become a serious problem given the $1 trillion of corporate that that have been issued over the past couple of years? winnie: there is a point where we will reach this tipping point where borrowing costs very much exceed what issuers can ultimately pay, especially as you point out debt loads have increased pretty sniffing and lee. we are still a far cry away from
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that, with investment grade yielding about 2.7%. we are still 100 basis points below the average coupon on the index, and that average coupon is at all-time lows. so you still have 100 basis points to get back to that average level. so long as we keep growth good enough for credit, as we like to say, then issuers should be able to continue to operate pretty nicely. tom: i saw a blurb the other day in the blur of the moment were it was trying to calculate how much of a debt deal microsoft could do. microsoft is the antithesis of your world. i believe they are aaa, as far from high-yield as you can get. when you hear the ability of any company in your world or in the technology world to raise $10 billion, $20 billion, $30 billion, how do you respond to that size of number? winnie: those sizes have become
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much more normal to investors over the past few years, where we have seen more and more jumbo deals in the investment grade market, but also in leveraged finance. issuers have a lot of avenues to raise very large tranches. i would also like to point out there is still a lot of cash on corporate balance sheets that needs to be used for something. companies like microsoft and other very highly rated technology companies are some of the issuers that have the most cash balances. so i would be a little bit less focused on jumbo transactions that could get pushed through in the investment grade market, whereas the high-yield and leveraged loan market are really primed for these massive issuances over the course of this year. jonathan: thank you. an important insight. this headline from cnbc, the president weighing curbing chip in sports -- chip exports to
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russia. there's been talk of export controls of some kind. the reporting from cnbc, the president weighing curbing chip exports to russia. tom: it is out there within the zeitgeist, and maybe before that among people like mark gurman or someone like that in los angeles. the question here is specificity of sanctions. i did not get a lot of infection from dan tannenbaum, a true expert on that. are these supposed to work? jonathan: it is supposed to work. dent had about what -- dan tannenbaum would question whether they have. tom: i don't know. i look at the blunt instrument of banning from russia iphones. i'm just talking out loud here. i don't know what you do to get their attention if this is centuries and centuries of culture you're talking about. lisa: it shows how little
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leverage they have right now, the idea that we are talking about possibly restricting chip supplies at a time when you have true buildup on the border of ukraine, and you are reluctant to go militarily to target in a surgical way. tom: ban doritos. jonathan: thank you, tom, for that value add. the president weighing curbing chip exports from russia, not doritos. i think lisa is going to have a word with you. tom: i am in the timeout chair. jonathan: when 'bramo let's rip on us, seriously. you come back after a couple of minutes and you just feel beaten up. it is brutal. tom: crushed. jonathan: that is why she is so angry when she comes back. lisa: am i angry? i always say it with a smile. jonathan: down more than 2% on the nasdaq, down 1.5% on the s&p. from new york, this is
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bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden has what he said was a great call with european leaders on coming up with a unified position on russia and ukraine. he tweeted that they discussed joint efforts to deter further russian aggression. the u.s. says as many as 1800 troops could be sent to europe to help bolster defense against russia. north korea has testfired more missiles this month then at any time since august 2019. it warned the u.s. it might end its five-year halt on tests of nuclear devices and long-range missiles to deliver them. johnson & johnson forecast 2022 sales that beat estimates. the drug unit accounted for more than half of sales last year.
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unilever plans to cut about 15% of senior management roles, roughly 1500 jobs. bloomberg reported earlier that ceo alan hope believes the number of managers at the consumer goods giant has slowed innovation. the cuts come at a time when activist and pal -- when activist nelson pal has taken a stake in unilever. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the problem is that the pandemic has introduced certain structural weaknesses into the emerging markets, including high debt levels. until get resolution from the fed as to what it is going to do , it feels very difficult to imagine traders jumping back into foreign-exchange and abandoning the dollar. jonathan: that was the mccoury interest rates strategist. -- the mccoury interest rates -- the macquarie interest rates strategist. you mentioned dan tannenbaum of oliver wyman. writing in and saying the following, "the u.s. and its allies have a delicate balance here. while russia has troops built up on the border, since this is a crisis of their own making, they don't have a real rationale to invade. any escalation in the of limitation of sanctions would give them that because." it speaks to the issue you were alluding to moments ago. tom: thank you, dan, for watching this morning. right now is an important point
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here. we've got kriti gupta with a chart of the day. what do you have right now? kriti: we've got to talk about emerging-market equities. we know there has been a selloff in the developed world. what about e.m.? where is the cash going? it brings me to my chart of the day, where you are comparing emerging-market stocks of the developed world. after 10 years of underperformance, you are actually see them outperform, or as damian sassower would say, perhaps perform less badly than the rest of their peers. one of the major reasons for people to actually happen to emerging markets right now is because they think that these countries have front run some of the rate hikes you are going to start seeing in the developed world. mexico, for example, was one of the first countries around the world to start hiking rates, and they were not doing it to hike energy or commodity prices. they were targeting food prices, which is their main driver -- which was their main driver of inflation. tom: this is the strength of bloomberg, to go from could group to come of this -- from
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kriti gupta, this sums like a new program on netflix, from sassower to yu. now on e.m., damian sassower, emerging-market credit strategist for bloomberg intelligence. "in. there is so much going on. jerome powell is central banker to the world. which country's most adhere to that? damian: what is so important about what will happen over the next two days is we will get some runoff in the u.s. you talked about citigroup mentioning financial conditions and how important that is. current coupon yield spread is 87 basis points. that is kind of what we saw during the last tightening cycle of 2018, 20 19. expect that to rise, to explode to the upside. we certainly do internally. if we get spreads start to move higher, forget about it.
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credit spreads are going to blow out. financial conditions are going to tighten. a lot of the heavy lifting for jerome powell may be taken up by equity valuations and credit spreads. tom: this is really important in the market. i have no clue what damian is talking about. price down, yield up, is there cash out there to step into that and whatever the eem vehicle is? damian: not yet. i think you still need to see real rates rise. we have not seen that yet. what we are calling for as the second half rolls along, i am not as convinced that u.s. and developed market inflation will come off to the extent of e.m., but the tightening that has happened off the back of that, we saw singapore last night, we will see hungary into minutes, we will see south africa, columbia, chile this week. you see curves flattening in e.m., which means we are getting to restrictive territory. so at some point it is going to be a good opportunity to receive. not just yet, and not with the
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political overhang, but at some point it is going to be a good opportunity to receive in e.m.. lisa: where you looking for to say lisko? -- to say let's go? damian: to see real policy rates turn positive, first of all. we do see growth moderating, but not so much. we see inflation falling in 16 to 20 of the major markets i cover. that is kind of a good thing. the extent to which inflation comes off is the key metric here. that is what we are most focused on. lisa: people you speak with are investing in emerging markets. how do you hide? do you just go to china and say they are going in the upper sick -- the opposite direction? damian: i am going to stay away from that one, but the market is applying a premium to welcome letter rest, short duration cash flows. so what does that mean? it means structured credit,
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clo's, all of that stuff should outperform a current market. you basically take a risk-averse approach. we were this morning on a low volatility approach to e.m. credit where you kick out all the high spreads, low duration bonds that have historically performed well in this environment. tom: the only reason you're on is rams-49ers. what do you think? after the incredible weekend we saw. come on. damian: i like the rams in that battle. but far be it for me to judge. last year doing the super bowl, i was the outlier who picked the tampa bay bucs to win it overall. so come back to me before the super bowl. i am thinking we might have a little bit of an underdog situation like last year. tom: i have no idea what he said on that item. [laughter] thank you so much. jonathan: tom, you are special. damian sassower, thank you very much. tom: he bought a place in turks
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and cato's. desk in turks and caicos -- in turks and caicos. he's a genius. did you have the packers losing? damian: i did not. my son did, though. draftkings is legal. we can talk about that kind of thing now. jonathan: everywhere i go right now on twitter, it is betting in new york city. what is going on there? damian: i am not very good with stocks. i am not really good with the markets, to be honest with you. i only kind of invest in what i know. so if i don't understand the markets, i'm going to be looking at sports. and real estate, by the way. jonathan: what are the odds that brady retires? damian: i thought it would have been higher if he actually won the super bowl, but now he's got a reason to come back. it is really a question for giselle. lisa: spoken like a true husband. jonathan: that is what i hear, that giselle has had to give up
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a lot of her career in the last 10 years, and tom needs to get home and do some of the family work. lisa: is the market environment so uncertain that you would rather bet on sports, you would rather that on football outcomes? damian: look at this volatility. the best risk-adjusted bets are in -- assets, sports being one of them. we could talk about the brazil elections. right, let's talk about giselle. jonathan: let's do that. damian sassower, as always. -- 'bramo says there is something going on in this market. there is. conditioned maybe by the massive turnaround yesterday. lisa, you don't know what to make of this anymore. lisa: you don't know which direction is going to go, but you get the sense that people are just searching for the narrative to guide them right now.
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jonathan: trying to look around corners. really focused on downside risk. tens at 1.77 percent. yields unchanged. coming up shortly, geoff yu of bny mellon. did you say it was genetic? [laughter] is it really? ♪ ♪
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>> i see inflation largely continuing this year >> they do not want to raise interest rates too soon and slid down the economy. >> i very much agree that the labor market is tight. i very much disagree that the labor market is strong. >> we are seeing a slowing down of the economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. deep into 2022 come on radio and televisi

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