tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg January 21, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EST
it cuts production. mine in the sand. president biden says russia will pay a heavy price if it moves into ukraine. antony blinken and sergei lavrov meet today in geneva. a warm welcome to the show. i asked myself this question, whether we had an evolution of more implosion in the equity story or are we exhausted as we see stocks tank and bond yields begin to roll over? this is the debate. exhaustion or evolution? good morning. dani: very exciting friday. it does not seem like it is exhausted that is because we are still selling off this morning. for me, it seems like the fear of missing out has morphed into the fear of holding the bag. manus: absolutely. who is the last man or woman standing? he is prescient in his calls in
japan, in the implosion many years ago. he is saying that a super bubble was formed last year. this incredible checklist has run through its phases now. we are ready for a wild rumpus. it can begin at any time and it's talking about stocks dropping by 50%. very vivid memories. good morning, dani burger. dani: super bubble, wild rumpus. there is a lot in store. the bears are in charge. it's not just jeremy grantham. it is individual investors. the most net bearish since 2020. who has the rains? it's those who think this market will turn lower. manus: you have to look at the bond market. there is something a little bit strange in the bond market because i have seen futures rise
10, 15, 30 seconds. yields are rolling down. is it pimco's who are correct? it's coming to fair value. are they correct where he says these bonds, they are just not a haven at all. you can debate the fed puts at any moment. dani: here is your risk look this morning. nasdaq, euro stocks, bitcoin. bitcoin down almost 6%, the lowest since august. it is a big day for risk off. second day in a row. manus: oil crumbles. there is something malevolent in the world. oil dropping. oil rallied away on the back of equities actually declining. now, there is a moment in the oil market, down by 2%. yields roll down.
dollar yen, is that your haven? let's talk about japanese tech. juliette saly is standing by in singapore with a continuation of the wreckage. carnage. carnage. juliette: indeed, manus. encouragingly, it does look like the topix is going to close off the lows of the session. at one point, it was down 2%, taking that downward momentum close to 10%. that was when the index was actually at a 31 year high but japan has been here with a triple whammy. not only the tech selloff on wall street. toyota halting further production. you have the strong yen you pointed to and the quasi-emergencies weighing on the overall outlook for the economy. let's have a look at how the tech selloff has played through. and also the kospi. australian stocks having their
worst session, plunging to their lowest in seven months and that index off by 3% over the course of the week and we have money going into the likes of bonds. the yield on the australian 10 year has been down by as much as 10 basis points. the aussie and the kiwi really laggards. dani: this global bond market story turning into a haven. juliette saly in singapore. manus was just talking about oil and the rally had run out of steam. it's trading close to $84 a barrel following bearish sentiment of a climb in u.s. stockpiles. bloomberg's oil reporter, elizabeth. this is quite the come down here and it looks like a sentiment shift. is it? what has changed in the past few hours to see it come down from its highest levels in seven years? >> extremely bullish. we had strong forecasts.
morgan stanley has been talking about how the dollar was. there is use coming up that it is considered to have not much of an impact as delta. not looking as strong as the previous quarter. incremental opec-plus supplies. there are some fundamentals. the u.s. stockpiles report is just another sector for the market to be correct on. i think just a drawback. market fundamentals are still presently quite tight. >> ok.
let's see whether this pain endures on the downside in the oil market. thank you very much, elizabeth low, on this moment in the oil markets. to the diplomatic efforts of the military effort in ukraine. that continues. antony blinken meetings are gay lavrov in geneva. the u.s. warned the kremlin that an encouraging into ukraine -- incursion into ukraine would cripple the russian economy. that's get to maria tadeo in geneva for this round of talks. the u.s. says there still is a diplomatic root. is that window closing or what is the way forward through diplomacy? >> look, as you said, there is time for a diplomatic solution and there is still time to de-escalate tensions with russia and ukraine. it will depend on their next
decisions going next. as you know, russia wants a guarantee that ukraine will never join nato. that vladimir putin will not get from the west. what the west wants is that pullback of the troops. it is something the russians are not willing to do. the solution going forward is very unclear, very muddy going on from here. the other thing i would point to is that morning that was reiterated yesterday saying that sanctions would be huge on the russian economy and that it would cripple the russian economy. what is key is that the united states felt a need to say we mean any incursion into ukraine. there had been confusion a day prior as to whether a miner invasion would count. the u.s. was clear in saying any invasion of those troops, 100,000 men stationed in the eastern border of ukraine, would count as an invasion. dani: thank you very much. these lines from biden was
enough to set off risk markets. that is maria tadeo. let's get to the first word news. jules is back with us. juliette saly in singapore. hello, juliette. juliette: france is to relax some covid restrictions from early next month on signs the omicron variant has already -- some regions including paris. the obligation to work from home at least three days a week is to go along with outdoor mask wearing. the government is moving ahead with a vaccine which will require full inoculation to enter restaurants or get on an airplane. the u.s. house panel investigating last year's riots at the capital has asked ivanka trump to submit to an interview. the committee requested her voluntarily cooperate on what it calls a range of critical topics. ivanka trump was a white house adviser and the committee says she was in the oval office at times on january 6 and the days leading up to it. netflix shares plunged as much as 20% in extended trade after
forecasting weaker subscriber growth than expected. the streaming giant expects to add 200 million customers in the current quarter, blaming a tough economy and lingering fallout from the pandemic. wall street was looking for 6.3 million new subscribers over the period. peloton dismissed reports that it is halting production of its connected fitness products including bikes and treadmills. the company's ceo says he is considering layoffs and taking steps to improve profitability. peloton's revenue narrowly missed estimates in the second quarter. the stock lost about 85% over the past year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus. manus: thank you very much. coming up on the show, entering the correction zone.
december of 2019 so even granted that covid decline, it was a helluva year, a year of acceleration. the nasdaq has started to weaken relative to the -- the russell has started to weaken much more so even than the nasdaq. manus: a confluence of bearish factors. jeremy grantham saying u.s. stocks are in a super bubble. we will see the repercussions this year. the checklist for a super bubble is running through its phases. it is now complete. 10% drawdown in the nasdaq so far. is there a belief? these are rare patterns that he is talking about.
do you think we are at the start of a supernova implosion? >> i don't think so. what is going on is taking place on the back of extremely strong corporate fundamentals. this was yesterday evening. overall, we should have another quite good year for corporate profits in 2022. and i would argue with jeremy that some corner of u.s. capitol markets have exhibited the characteristics. some of it has come up that bubble already. it continues with the current selloff. i would not argue that the oil market was in a bubble condition . look at the nasdaq leaders. the free cash flow production.
there is no sign of a bubble. >> does that mean you're buying this dip? >> no, i am quite concerned about the stance of the federal reserve. we have all seen the minutes published the first week of the earth. even before hiking rates for the first time. i have said and written time and again that it's a very tricky experiment, quantitative easing, carrying more risks than opportunities. manus: so this is the debate. we don't really know what pace of qt they can do. and he questions the scale of the fed put option at the moment. what would were you most from a
risk point of view in terms of the pace of qt? what would concern you about taking more equity risk in terms of qt? >> i think by the time we start shrinking the balance sheet, we should have the second half of this year sufficient evidence that the inflation spike is rolling over. we don't think the inflation increase was caused by the total demand in the u.s. economy. if you look at wages in aggregate, in right of the acceleration, the aggregate amount of wages is still in real terms likely lower before the pandemic so there is no shift, no permanent increase in demand. we are confronted with the
supply constraints and bottlenecks. these should eventually yield. we have seen the consumer pulling off so there should be evidence that inflation is no longer as acute a problem as it is today. >> i don't mean to put you head-to-head with your peers but you are talking about inflation not being a permanent shift. does that mean when you look at bill ackman, who says we need to shock and awe markets, you have jamie dimon -- are they off their rockers? >> i think so. [laughter] i think by the time the fed hits rate hikes, the s&p 500 will feed his prediction. at the end of the day, the wealth effect has not disappeared. we are in a highly leveraged context in the real economy and
the financial system. ontario policy still transmits primarily to asset prices. the s&p 500 at the end of the day decides when and by how much to tighten monetary policy. manus: i mean, by the way, i love him. the only person in the world who will say jamie is off his rocker. dani: i'm so sorry, mr. di mon. don't mean it. manus: he's asleep. he is in a different time zone. you have decried the inflation punch up higher as being something which is structural and enduring. so the question then becomes, if that is the case, have we over reached and gone over our skis, to quote pimco, in terms of our
expectations to what happens to rates? maria: when you look at -- >> when you look at u.s. two years, it's 1%. the tightening is fully priced. i don't expect the financial system to be able to wish them more than what is currently priced in the market. that is already a lot. in a way, it's quite scary that you have a market that exhibits such fragility at a time when central banks are still buying assets. as we speak, their balance sheets are expanding. risk assets are under pressure. just because they are suggesting they will shift stance dramatically in terms of monetary policy. i think most pundits way overestimate how much they can tighten in a cycle. if you look at u.s. household wealth, an estimated 150 some
trillion assets held by u.s. households, compared to 70 trillion before the financial crisis in 2007, the asset value, we have become more sensitive to changes in asset prices then we were to begin with before the pandemic. asset prices, if anything, matter more today. if jeremy grantham is right and we go to 2500 on the s&p 500, i can assure you we have a big recession ahead. dani: thank you so much for playing ball with us. we have a few more pictures to throw your way so don't go anywhere. chief investment officer at julius baer. coming up, biden says putin would "pay a heavy price" if any russian troops crossed the ukrainian border. we will discuss how the markets are reacting to this geopolitical risk. this is bloomberg.
dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. president joe biden said russia will pay a heavy price if any of its forces move across the border into ukraine. that is after suggesting earlier that western allies might struggle to react to a small-scale attack. those comments got a lot of attention and they, head of a meeting between antony blinken with his russian counterpart, sergei lavrov. back with us is the chief investment officer at julius baer. i know it's a lot of balls to juggle at this moment. we were talking about some of the macro risks and the fed risks but how are you evaluating the j risk of a potential
conflict with russia and ukraine? >> my understanding is these are caused by the western attitude towards the ukraine situation more than russia and i see the russian response as aligned with russian interests. we don't expect the whole thing to blow up into a crossing of the border. things should calm down. it's difficult to trade these things and i don't think you can tactically protect yourself from this. i think it's basically your risk framework. it protects you against these shocks. i would not change my stance on trade on this. manus: you talked about the fragility of markets even as central banks continue right now
with qe. f, has barely tightened. what is it that perhaps is the biggest morning to you? is it that we have an entire group of people who have never lived through a rising interest rate environment and beyond zero, as it were, in terms of rates? are we struggling with a mind shift in risk? >> yes. we have witnessed a major shift by the u.s. central bank. the narrative until early autumn was we will not try that. invasion is temporary. we continue to buy assets, etc. suddenly, they stopped to freak out about invasion. invasion in the short-term is a huge issue in the united states. real wages lost here.
declining due to inflation. we have midterm elections in november. and we can see the intensity of the political pressure on the central banks to do something about it. president biden even said it a couple of days ago. the fed has to do something about this. i don't believe the nature of the current inflation can be addressed by monetary policy. the fed would have to destroy way too much demand in the u.s. economy to impact inflation. they cannot get that in control. think that is what we want, just exiting the pandemic. it is a narrow, tricky path to navigate. manus: it certainly is going to be a very difficult path without an implosion in equities and the risk of recession. chief investment officer at julius baer.
yesterday, china reduced interest rates. today, we understand there is a bloomberg scoop that china urges the banks to boost lending after a slow start to 2022. they issued window guidance this month. people every day in business brin something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.
dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. 6:30 a.m. in the city of london. i'm dani burger alongside manus cranny from dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." tech tanks as risk-off pummels stocks. treasuries in the yen as investors rushed to havens. netflix plunges as subscribers disappoint. peloton slums as it cuts
production. president biden says russia will pay a heavy price if it moves into ukraine. antony blinken and sergei lavrov meet in geneva today. fear of a more hawkish fed punishing u.s. markets but over in china, it is the opposite. a bloomberg scoop. china urging banks to boost their lending after a slow start to the year. manus: this is what they call the window of the pboc. encouraged to lend more credit to companies and households. all equities around the world under pressure. the csi down by 1% at the moment and this goes back to whether you believe there is more downside risk in the equity market to come, most especially in tech. jeremy grantham is calling about crazy behavior in the equity market and we already entered into a correction, having way, in terms of the nasdaq?
he said there is no imminent implosion. that's two to one at the moment. dani: we have a correction in the nasdaq composite, a correction in the nasdaq 100. it has become clear that this is more than just high yields. we had bond buying yesterday. nasdaq down nearly 1%. europe playing catch-up. bitcoin down more than 6%, manus. manus: yes, that's pretty much in lockstep with the nasdaq. the correlation is .4. there is a chart on the bloomberg. the relationship between the nasdaq implosion and the bitcoin, below a five month low. oil rolling down. oil catching a little bit of cold from the risk-off sentiment globally. 10 year yields. however, we are seeing buying on the futures, buying on bonds. money goes into the end.
.21%. dani: it does seem yesterday that sentiment really shifted after we got news out of peloton so let's get into the corporate earnings. we had netflix and to peloton slumping. new customer estimates have disappointed while peloton revenue missed estimates and it is slashing their employee force, reportedly. that's get tom mackenzie. netflix and peloton, these were kind of stars of the stay-at-home trade. people really liked them. let's start with netflix. what is leading to the disappointment? tom: the headline number. that compares to wall street estimates of 6.3 million so that huge gap between what they are saying they expected for this quarter versus the previous estimate from wall street. if you look back at 2021, they pulled in over 18 million
subscribers, 50% below the previous year, 2020. they said we are going to be pulling growth forward because of that incredible pandemic demand. the concerns come through in terms of the executives and their inability to pinpoint why growth has slowed. they had a pretty good run up in terms of the pipeline. we know that pipeline will start to get weaker until march. the executives say maybe it's partly the economics, partly the pandemic, partly a stronger dollar. we have not broken into india, worried about that. they had some success but they have not been able to pinpoint why the growth has slowed as much as we are seeing and has missed those estimates and that is the concern. manus: good to see you. a brutal after-hours performance but when it comes to the other side, peloton.
this is the very personification when everyone looks back in history, they will get one product that personified covid-19. they are cutting production. the ceo says we are rightsizing our production to evolve more seasonal demand curves. tom: it was brutal. i did not have to go through multiple lockdowns when i was in china. dani burger is back in the gym. manus cranny has been flexing. we will be back in the gym. that is the problem. let's get back to the numbers. a market cap of 50 billion to 8 billion. they have to convince the executives that this isn't just a fad, passing fad. there were reports of cutting production. they pushed back on this. we got mckinsey in to look through the books and help us
restructure the business to account for this slowdown. it was brutal in terms of the selloff. what they are hoping to do is line up new products. that will take time to come through so the pressure on this company, they had all the scandals. it's been a terrible 12 months. and then they try to rewrite that with a marketing push that did not work. they are hoping to come out of the gate for 2022 with a stronger setting but they are a long way from that. dani: what a wild ride. manus: all three of us are available. you are already in that video, mckinsey. who is that chiseled job? it's mckenzie. we get dani burger. i can get you all a good contract. dani: manus, your next career
move. i'm feeling it. peloton instructor is in your future. manus: the producer of the show knows how to call me down. you are so young and thin. tom is ready for action. juliette saly is in singapore and ready for action. she can be the brand ambassador for singapore. juliette: that is a tough act to follow. france to relax some covid restrictions on signs that the omicron variant has already peaked in some regions including paris. the obligation to work from home at least three days a week is to go. micron is going ahead with a vaccine pass which will require full inoculation. serbia blocked rio tinto's plans for europe's biggest lithium line. the prime minister says she is halting the planned project which has become a big environmental issue ahead of serbia's general election. the decision is a blow to the
new ceo who approved a project for one of his first big decisions. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani. dani: thank you so much. juliette saly in singapore. efforts to avert a military conflict in ukraine continue with antony blinken meeting sergei lavrov in geneva. maria tadeo is in geneva on the ground for us. the u.s. says that her is still a diplomatic breach so what is the way forward here? >> that is a big question ahead of this meeting that will start in about four hours here in geneva. in terms of the way forward, what is clear at this point is that this situation is a deadlock and has not moved even after two weeks. very strong back and forth
diplomacy trips. what russia wants is a guarantee that ukraine will never join nato, and the russians will not get that. what the united states wants to see is something that vladimir putin at this stage is not willing to give them either so it is unclear where we go from here. what i do -- what i can report is that overnight, the united states was saying it believed they could de-escalate. still a diplomatic move forward, unclear what that looks like, but if it doesn't work, reminding that there could be severe sanctions that would cripple the russian economy. another thing worth noting is the fact that the united states had to clarify what an invasion of ukraine would look like, saying that any type of incursion would be considered an invasion of ukraine and that would trigger this package of sanctions. manus: thank you very much. i would love to be a fly for one of those negotiations.
area today tracking the negotiations. joining us now to talk about the impact on markets that these tensions are having, we will dig into the european gas market with the principal research analyst for the gas markets. thank you for being with us. many times people, bloomberg and say russia is not holding europe ransom, russia is not responsible for keeping gas prices inexorably high. can you please start with defining the scale of russian gas that your abuses and is russia holding european gas markets to ransom? good morning. >> that is a good question. europe is reliant on russian gas . in 2020, the e.u. consumed 35% of e.u. was coming from russian
pipelines. at the moment, russian supplies are much lower than what we saw in 2020. the market is about balancing, just about. the price is still extremely high. potentially, russia can add additional flows through europe. the pipeline going through poland, through ukraine, or put additional volumes on the electronic sales platform. dani: also, what would be the consequences if -- let's walk through the scenario here. if we get what president biden warned about yesterday, if there is a line crossed of russia into ukraine, heavy sanctions fall on into russia. such an event on these gas markets. tom: when it comes -- >> when it
comes to gas markets, we don't believe there will be this nuclear scenario of shutting down europe from russian gas. if we think back to 2013 when russia first invaded ukraine and the sanctions cane, the trend still continues in russia continues to fly into europe and transit through ukraine continues. what we are considering of course is if there is large-scale military incursion, there is of course risk of disruption of ukraine transit due to some technical issues as a result of military actions. manus: have you got an assessment of the scale of that disruption and the other thing that everybody is talking about is could nord stream 2 become a target, let's say, for -- in this dispute? a physical target? is that it risked people are talking about? >> to address your first question, yes.
we are looking at how the market can balance if the ukraine transit is disrupted. technically, there is a lot of free capacity. potentially, if there is goodwill on the russian side, they can redirect gas through europe. they can redirect more than half of what they are seeing through ukraine. this will leave europe short but we are looking at different additional options that europe can choose. there can be some upset from norway, from the change in the strategies of suppliers. there can be some upside from netherlands but it is very politically sensitive issue. there is potentially some upside from switching back into coal and nuclear but it is extremely politically sensitive. dani: katerina, sorry for
jumping in. in terms of the other options, how much can we look to china, how much can we look to north america, how much do these regions help fill some of the gaps? kateryna: we already see actually some of this happening. for example, this month, we expect more lng in european systems then russian gas. there is more from asia and the stocks are high. when it comes to the overall volume of global supply, at this price, everything that has been squeezed out can be squeezed out. it is about the redirection of this lng from asia. a lot would depend on whether -- if we see mild weather, we could see potential lng coming into europe. dani: katerina, thank you very
manus: this is daybreak europe. i am manus cranny in dubai. let's check in on the markets. over the past two hours, the debate is this. whether we are at the beginning of an implosion, supernova implosion, super bubble, we are off the lows on the nasdaq. reporting for four days in a row and i can tell you that that
really is a correction territory but we are of the lows of the morning. the risk is a wild rumpus can begin. dani: at one point, we were down 1.6% on the nasdaq futures. my fun fact of the day is that for do days in a row, the nasdaq was closing down 1% and that has not happened in 20 years. let's look at gmm. we have been talking about all this morning. that third column, yields lower. investors fleeing to them. bonds back at the haven. pimco says they are inattentive territory. jp morgan raised jamie dimon's pay by 10% for 2021 after the firm's most profitable year on record. joining us now is paul j davies. look, it's not like jamie dimon -- jamie dimon is struggling for money. what does this pay rise mean for him? why give him this vampire?
>> good morning. i think it is to do with the pay pressure throughout wall street. there is a lot more money going in. the basic salary. as well as this year, you know, a huge increase in bonuses across the board's, really. for a lot of investment bankers. i guess this comes on the back of some relative restraint in 2020 when people were not sure exactly how the pandemic was going to play out, how it was going to affect the economy, whether the kinds of revenues the bank was making were going to be sustainable. it was relatively contained in 2020. we have seen a boost everywhere. special bonuses for jamie dimon. special bonuses for jamie dimon. we have not seen so much of an increase going out to shareholders which is one of the interesting things that has gone
on this earnings season. manus: we have obviously seen the bump up in junior banker pay as well. $110,000. look, wall street sometimes sets for the french trading banks for the swiss. but how do you think the street is setting up the european outlook for the bank season? >> it is down to be quite similar to what we have seen in the u.s. in terms of the revenue performance. fixed income, fixed trading division heavily. the mna and advisory work and ipo's and so on will be ok. it will not be as good as the u.s. players. what we have got is a forecast across the big europeans, up
about 4%, which compares to 28% improvement in revenues for advisory of u.s. banks. the interesting thing will be equities and the reason i say that is because it has been quite a mixed picture in the u.s. it was not as hard for many of the u.s. banks as it was for fixed income. some banks did very well and in europe, what we have had is dmp taking on the prime brokerage business from deutsche bank, taking on a full earnings and revenue which is one of their divisions and they are going to do much better than they did in 2020 in part because of that. there equity division has drawn level with their fixed income division for the first time. and then ubs of course, similarly to morgan stanley, is
much more exposed to the wealth market, much more exposed to asia. they're revenue might be quite good as well. manus: hsbc have had a cracking run, the most overbooked since 1986. bloomberg opinion on the outlook for european bank earnings coming up. oil's red hot rally. we will discuss what is behind the slide at the moment of reprieve in the brunt markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
assets and commodities is not immune to that. we are looking at wti something the most in a month. $83 a barrel. we are nearing 84 and looking at aluminum, copper, also coming under pressure this morning but this is a significant about-face. earlier this week when oil was at a seven-year high, so what has changed? martin ritchie in shanghai. let me put that to you. what has changed in the past few days that we are following multiyear highs? manus: we are just going to come back to martin in a moment. we will try and latch into his sound. have we got you, martin? maybe in just a moment, we will get to that. dani, when you look at that oil market -- i started the show just over 50 minutes ago. are we at a moment from grave
exhaustion? are we running downside rhetoric on the equity markets? the oil market, as you saw, down one point 75%. are we exhausted? talking about $100 oil and above. are we at the evolution of a much bigger reassessment of risk in the equity market, as jeremy grantham has said? dani: it does feel like a lot more bears have emerged from the woodwork, no pun intended, but it doesn't feel like there has been a sentiment shift. when you look at surveys that have sentiment at multiyear lows, does that mean -- is it a contrarian sign? has it gone too far? are we oversold in some places? certainly pimco thought that with this bond market. manus: absolutely. 2130 is the aaii. that is about investor sentiment