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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 23, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EST

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anytime soon. >> we are not completely done with inflationary pressures. >> we keep having the problem of the recession hitting us, it is called covid. >> the market needs to revisit the risk of policy error. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance", kailey leinz, we are in for the others, all of of who are off today. santa claus seems to have been coming to the markets because the rally continues. anna: the rally does continue. we are up .1%. the man in red grabbing hold of the reins and taking it higher. we have good news at least at the margin and at least if you skew -- skew your view towards western economies. we have good news against the fight against omicron.
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we have a trio of data releases about the astrazeneca rooster and it is less good when you look at what is happening in china and that has humanitarian health implications and supply chain applications. kailey: an entire city being shut down and it shows that the covid zero policy might just impact china specifically it could have ripple effects. damian: certainly into emerging markets. i'm going to play lisa and be the bear. despite what we are seeing in equity markets this bull market seems to be struggling. i mean you have treasury yields basically expected to rise, inflation remaining persistent. i'm a little bit sanguine on what we are seeing on what is basically a low-volume day. kailey: damien channeling lisa abramowicz. do you want to be tom bergeron? -- tom or jon? anna: i do not know, you cast me
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in whatever role that you like. we talked quite a lot about this, where on earth are we in the cycle. if we are looking at the economic cycle or when you are looking at credit markets, have we destroyed the cycle. one guess we nationalize corporate credit earlier on. so, where are we in the cycle? it seems like an easy question to ask in a hard one to answer, i do not know if that is normal. damian: for me this is reminiscent of last year when you saw the procyclical shift, the value, markets try to digest it and then it flushed it out. that is what investors are little bit hesitant about. the fact -- the fact is are you going to put that trade on again and we will see what happens. anna: let us have a look at the markets and check on where we are on futures. it is up by a quarter of 1%. we are leaving a little bit of
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steam. we do see this up around half a percent and some of the markets up by more than 1%. a little bit of a santa claus rally in the mix. we have the euro in for you. should we put the pound in? that is up .5% against the u.s. dollar. just in case you have travel plans around christmas. i'm not sure that everybody does this year, it is not quite the year ford. the -- we also has wti crude 74.7 or 72.78. the story around the pound is rate hikes, something that has grown in momentum just earlier on in the month. that is the global story. kailey: the bank of england has lifted off but the question is when the fed -- when will the fed do so? we will get a better read when we get economic data in the u.s..
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it will be streaming in the morning but 8:30 a.m. eastern time we will get much, job spending, and durable goods. we will watch the deflater,, which is the one that the fed watches. we are expecting 5.7%. and it comes to personal income and spending, how much is income lagging behind inflation and how much of that is income as consumers are drawing down there spend -- their savings. 10:00 a.m. eastern time we will get consumer sentiment. how is a consumer feeling. judging by the board yesterday they are doing well and it exceeded expectations out at 1:15 -- at 1.15. we are expecting that number in the 70's. we are doing well in inflation expectations next year and then longer. one note at 2:00 p.m., the bond market will claude -- will close for trading. it is a shortens session for the
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treasury market. anna: let us talk about inflation. mike holland joins us this morning to do just that and to expand the conversation. mike, good to speak to you thank you for joining us. what do you think a central-bank policy can do. ahead of our conversation you says that too much money facing too few goods realizing the taper cannot do much about too few goods that it can do something about the money. what kind of downward pressure can the fed bring to bear about inflation even that some is driven by supply chain issues? mike: such an important question and i am not sure that jerome powell could answer that because he has all of these tools which he employed it brilliantly 15, 18, and 20 months ago, and timed it out as one of the epic salvage of the u.s. economy missions and one of the best
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pricing that it has ever done. right now they are in a period where they are losing a little bit of confidence in addition to their persistence with their word -- with the word transitory and a couple of regional presidents has have to resign because of claims of insider whatever. it is a little bit off the fed, and i think it has shown that it has done what does she has done well and trying circumstances. i think it is pretty well inbred in the population as kaylee was just saying -- kailey that we have the wage price spiral inflation which is so difficult, so it is not cut out for him and i do not think he will be advancing the questions. kailey: well, depending on what tools they use, how high would
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you put the odds of a policy mistake? mike: i do not even want to talk about it. it is at historic levels, and historically bad levels. the supply of money, and talking what the fed can do and rate hikes and so on, i think it is the supply of money which has been too few goods chased by a lot of money is what is causing the spiral that will persist long after the services and other kinds of inflation provided inflation is already looking better. i think the virus is, as of this morning, officially being retired by the markets. i think inflation is a big bogey over the next 6, 12, and 18 months. kailey: what do you think would be the bigger event for the
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markets coalesced generic when the fed lifts -- for the markets? when the fed lists or when we rolled off the balance sheet? mike: between the two the balance sheet is the key, the amount of money coming into the system. the market is determined to make it about psychology, psychology has been waning recently, so i think that they have to do smart things. at the end of the day it is the supply of money that will be the key. damian: the proverbial punch bowl. i have one question, our bonds dead? if one more person tells me to maintain ample liquidity i might blow my brains out. what serves as a store of value in this environment? mike: beware the buy market -- the bond market, it is so much baked into the christmas cake that you can lose money in a meaningful way over the next 12 months in terms of interest
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rates moving up. i should say when interest waits move up, the fed has to move interest rates up. unless we go into a serious recession caused by rates going up. the bond market is going to have a very negative reaction, so they can lose money and it is a question of how much. damian: what about the risk of a policy error. do you think the fed can taper without causing a tantrum this time around? mike: i think that jerome powell is very savvy, i think he watches the markets and will do his best to avoid that. unfortunately for us, i think the possibility of a mistake is relatively high. kailey: thank you so much for joining us, mike holland. -- happy holidays to you and thank you for joining us on a holiday week when your time is more valuable for that reason. as we talk about the federal reserve we also have to talk
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about that there are open seats and in theory the biden demonstration is supposed to tell us who they want by the end of the year and we still do not have answers. anna: it is the body that makes these decisions in its entirety rather than it just being down to powell. when we were hearing about powell's renomination there were a lot of names thrown around, we will see whether the names that are then put onto the fomc complement powell or are cut from the same cloth. we will see how that pans out. kailey: i was talking to a former fed governor a few weeks ago and i asked him will it shift the balance depending who sits in the seats. he says at the end of the day the fed is chairman lead. ultimately it is powell calling the shots. damian: u.s. treasuries, we have not seen two consecutive years of negative total returns and i think that is what is coming in 2022. we are having a negative year here and i think we will see the
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same in 2022 considering the path of rate hikes. kailey: the question is when that shows up. i am looking at a 10-year treasury yield south of 150. i do not think coming into this year anyone thought we would be that low aside from steve major. anna: absolutely. maybe we will get steve back on to talk about one week -- where we go in 2022. we got up to 1.7 and that time we were all thinking it was playing save, and it did not turn out that way. kailey: tech is doing very well this morning. nasdaq futures are up .2%. just shy of the 4700 level. the 10 year yield sitting at 147. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: with the first word news. the supreme court will hold a session to weigh challenges to two biden administration policies covering vaccine requirements. the announcement that it will hear arguments in the case is january the seventh comes amid rising coronavirus cases and on an extraordinary fast timeline. they had not been scheduled to hear cases until january 10. the chinese city of xinjiang has imposed a locked down after testing identified 127 covid infections. residents have been told to remain in their homes and designate one person to go out every other day for necessities. it is the biggest such moves since the pandemic started. until is apologizing after its backlash in china. they sent a letter asking suppliers not to ask -- asking
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not to use any labor or products from xinjiang to assure compliance including continuing access to the chinese market is crucial to its growth as it struggles with increasing competition. russia is continuing to build up forces close to ukraine while it is beginning to enter into security talks with the u.s.. european -- the u.s. and its european allies have warned of huge consequences. as a struggled to understand vladimir putin's intentions, the kremlin is denying its -- that it will invade. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ es. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> if i am in the health i am in now, i am in good health, and i
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am back outrunning. if that means a rematch against donald trump, you are trying to tempt me now. sure. why would i not run against donald trump, that would increase the prospect of running. kailey: donald trump, his health, and fate, three factors that the president says will decide if he seeks a second term. to get to 2022, we have to finish out the final six trading days of the year. let us see how things are shaping out on this december 23. the santa claus rally looks like it is continuing after two big updates for the s&p 500. futures up .4%. not a lot of action when it comes to fx and euro-dollar is flat on the day. the 10-year yield in the u.s. picked up two basis points, 147 is where we said. let us head over to washington, d.c. or jack is joining us.
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the 2024 picture is going to be decided by the midterms in 2022. jack: i do not know if the 2020 four race would be decided by 2020 two, but it will be colored by eight. right now democrats see one last chance to get as much of their legislative agenda of through as possible because there really is an expectation that republicans will pick up at least one of the two chambers of congress in the midterms, especially with the president's tough approval ratings weighing on his party. this, really what you have heard about the tax and spending bill and the pressure to get something done before everybody gets out on the campaign trail is reflective of the expectation that as usual the first midterm after a president comes into office is really tough. it might not be pivotal in 2024 but it makes things difficult for democrats.
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anna: on the build back better and linking that into the vote thing that we are talking about, do the two have a bearing on each other and does the ability to get this through despite the opposition and things not looking great for the fiscal stimulus package right now, does the fact that the midterms are fast approaching, what it make a difference if the democrats prove that they were able to get this through? jack: i think democrats, mainstream democrats and even moderate my credits that have missed getting -- misgivings about the build back better agenda and the process really want that to campaign on, obviously they have the initial stimulus response to the coronavirus, they have the infrastructure bill that was bipartisan. but this bill is a major cornerstone of what democrats from the progressive wing to the moderate wing wanted to be able to campaign on.
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each one affects each other, the time crunch to get onto the campaign trail and the difficulty looking at the polls right now makes it a little bit more difficult to get this across the finish line, but we spoke earlier this week to carolyn bordeaux of moderate swing district member in georgia, who had some problems with the process of this bill earlier, even she said that she was disappointed first -- in senator manchin for holding it up and she wants to see it end up in law, so that is something she is pinning her hopes on. kailey: there are questions about the longer-term stimulus. in the shorter term you spoke with tom of oklahoma on bloomberg radio and he told you there was a possibility of an early 2022 supplemental bill to support the omicron response. could we see an agreement on a different kind of support before we see agreement on build back better or at all? jack: in a limited way that is
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something that could get bipartisan support. the congressman is actually the top house republican on the subcommittee responsible for funding health and human services. he brought up that a few weeks ago before omicron really got going, he and javier becerra, the hhs secretary had a conversation and it was expressed that it might be necessary regardless of new variants to have a new bill looking at hospital capacity and testing capacity. it is the kind of thing that could be bipartisan. republicans would want to reallocate some of the previously appropriated money from the american rescue plan that they opposed. there would be some controversies over how to address that. it is the kind of things that early in 2022 is possible even on a bipartisan basis. damian: do you think president biden's weak approval ratings is one of the reasons we are not seeing a more stringent
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lockdown. should we just pencil in a republican congress in november of next year? what is the story? jack: the political calculus seems to assume that republicans will win at least one chamber and that we are going to have a divided government and that this is the last chance that democrats have to use the budget reconciliation process to get something through on a partisan line, the house, senate and white house while they still have it. there might be some political pressure when it comes to whether to go into a true lockdown, obviously there are substantive differences between where we are now and where we were in march or april of 2020 with the number of people who have been vaccinated. for example when the president says that he might be open to reducing travel restrictions from southern african countries, that was meant as a short-term
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or shorter-term measure to try and buy more time, and at this point they are trying to press people to get vaccinated because it is an obvious solution. there might be some political pressure to say we might not go fully into lockdown that it is the case that there are other solutions available to us. kailey: a policy approach very different in the u.s. and the u.k. where anna is relative to other parts of the world like europe. thank you to jack fitzpatrick. we go to washington and the rest of turkey. this is your wheelhouse, the lira appreciating against the dollar we are sub 11 once again. damian: up 11%, quite unbelievable -- unbelievable. you know that erdogan pass the legislation where the the governments will backstop any lira losses on local deposits. that is what drove the recent rally 11% today where back and attends we were in the 18 handle last week.
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this is almost a doubling of the lira, an unbelievable move, unprecedented. anna: we have heard a lot from president erdogan this week and heard about the new policy and it is designed to persuade average turks to convert their currency into dollars. from what we have heard so far, you think that can be successful? damian: there are 260 $5 billion of hard currency deposits within the current -- the turkish banking system so now the central bank of turkey will backstop all of that. if it all comes back on shore, good luck with that. it will not be good for their fiscal situation. it will probably rise. once the lira does depreciate it means that, quite frankly they will have to print a lot more money and their monetary base will expand and that is not good for inflation. kailey: i did not remember -- i do not remember the last day we did not talk about the turkish lira. the turkish lira stronger against the dollar.
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the dollar broadly is slightly weaker. we are seeing futures in positive territory, up another .25% or so just shy of the 47 heaven -- 4700 level. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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kailey: santa claus might not be coming down the chimney until tomorrow night that he has already come for the equity markets because the santa claus rally is underway and we are close to all times high -- all-time highs when it comes the equity markets. the s&p 500 about three -- .3%, right at the 4700 level. gains across the benchmarks including outperformance for the small caps. the russell 2000 is up .6%. take a look at the bond markets, some movement in yields but we are taking -- ticking higher on the 10-year yield. there is movement once again at the longer end than at the short end. on the two year yield up to 67.79. one other story we are -- we
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have what is going on on the others of the atlantic which is a lot of volatility in european natural gas prices. we have seen so many wild street -- wild swings, down 18% but that just brings it up to essentially still higher prices on the week because you saw the big movement upward earlier this week. it is cold where you are and there is a lot of concern about russian supply but lng might come to the rescue. anna: the function working overtime. not going to asia as they so often do but coming to europe where they can get higher prices. let us start the conversation around currency markets. this is the global head of currency strategy at brown brothers harriman. i want to start the conversation on the turkish lira and then i will hand over to damien and then you guys can carry on because there is a lot to say for sure. i remember a day when 10 lira to
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the dollar was considered sort of weal and then we got -- weak and then we got to 17 and now we are down to something with a 10 handle. i do you think the turkish lira is heading? there are a lot of banks and fx houses that have stopped covering this currency. what are your thoughts? >> it is a good point and the liquidity is very thin. not a lot of participants will stick their neck out on prices on the turkish lira. i would say that the policy taken earlier this week has at least moved out of the overshoot territory. it is a typical sort of em playbook, policy steps lead to weakness and it gathered steam. there is nothing to pop the balloon and some of the air out of it. but nothing has changed fundamentally. i think damien touched on it earlier, we basically
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transferred currency risk from hospitals and firms onto the government. it is not addressing the underlying problem which is monetary policy and high inflation, the lack of foreign investment. this will persist so i think we will get overshoot, we saw overshoot on the upside and the downside. it will be somewhere in between, but i look for continued weakness. you might've gotten past the exponential stage but nothing has me confident that turkey has turned around a been -- around again. damian: let us talk about the greenback, it has been a thorn in the side of international investors for the past 10 years, you name it. what will it take to knock king dollar off of its throne? win: just go back a year, backed in december 2020 everybody was so negative. i looked at all of the bank forecasts looking for continued weakness, and it obviously did
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not happen and we had a big surprise with the georgia elections, the u.s. economy was doing very well. for now, i am confident about 2022. the same drivers for most of 2021 remain intact in the u.s. economy remain strong. the fed contributed to a hawkish stance. i think three rate hikes are priced in. to me, the reason i am still bullish is that none of this is priced in. i think they are underestimating the capacity to tighten. right now the market pricing of the terminal rate of something just under 1.5, and even if inflation returns to its target and that is a big if, we are talking about a negative real policy rate. that seems highly unlikely and almost unheard of in modern times. so, the fed is much more hawkish and they are talking about 2.5%
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and looking at rates close to 2% in 2023. we saw this unfold during the last tightening cycle where the fed was more hawkish than the markets and the markets go back and forth, but the trend in labor market wages prices, so i feel pretty confident that the fed is more right than the markets in terms of tightening. damian: further to that, everyone and their mother is tightening rates, every central bank and markets. there is one that is not, the pboc. what are your expectations for the yuan in 2022? win: go back to the central bank story, and that is the big driver for 2022 carrying over to this year. the biggest is the u.s.-china story. again, we have seen this happen in china time and time again when they talk about structural
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rebounds and structural reforms and all of a sudden growth starts to slow and the policymakers panic and all of a sudden there is a foot on the gas pedal going back to credit fueled growth. that seems to be playing out again. to me that is negative so that you on -- guan -- yuan -- i like dollar yuan higher. and for the most part it is less dependent on official pronouncements and it has become trading more and more with wider em currencies. i like em as you pointed out, we are seeing massive movement of liquidity in 2022 and beyond. so two risk assets that are dependent on cheap liquidity will suffer. so i have a greater sense around em and the yuan should reflect
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that. kailey: we can talk about the policy differences but the ecb is not necessarily going the same way or far from and quickly as western central banks. i am wondering how that will play into further weakness if we see tightening in the u.s. and the ecb to -- keeps it easy? win: that is a ski -- that is a key part. i would add the bank of japan and the swiss national bank. they went into this pandemic fighting deflation, and obviously the pandemic has been another headache, but i think when all is said and done, those central banks will be extra cautious about accommodations. they realize how tricky it has been. the ecd -- the ecb has a history of removing accommodations quickly. i think madame lagarde will not be the second french head of the
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ecb to remove accommodation early. europe still has to go lower because of this, and the dollar-yen should go higher for the same reason. and i think the bank of japan is more careful than the ecb, they fighting inflation for decades and it is clear that they aren't in no hurry to -- are in no hurry to move accommodations. kailey: if the -- is the end still the haven currency and if it is not what is acting in that way? win: we have seen a lot of haven buying for the yen, swiss franc, and the dollar. if we risk on and omicron is not so deadly and global growth is not impacted, if that sort of risk on environment, i think that will go higher. that is to talk about some highs in 2015 around 1.1865. it came from a far way off, and it had bouts of ups and downs.
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i think the trend there is weaker for the yen. anna: we are seeing a substantially stronger panel, cable 1.3418 against the u.s. dollar. it seems the market is growth -- is joining together and treating the pound as a rich asset and reflecting on the news around the reduced hospitalization rates for omicron and saying that this will mean less chance of locked down. do you go along with that kind of analysis? win: reading the bank of england this past couple days has been tough, and very tough on traders and markets because even a couple of head fakes, it is really uncalled for in this environment of forward guidance, and that is the whole point of forward guidance to make sure there are no surprises and mistakes, and i think the bank of disappointing. they are in a very difficult
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situation but you have to be upfront and massage explict -- expectations but look for the risk. i think the markets are expecting 100 basis points of tightening, about once a quarter. want comes in now is that the kicker is when the policy rate is 0.5 they stop reinvestment. when the policy rate reaches 1% and they start actively shrinking balance sheets. that is a lot of monetary accommodation getting removed. we know the fiscal accommodations are falling off. the chancellor is trying to get the outlook back to normal. so, there is a lot of headwind for the u.k. and then we also have to talk about brexit. if there is one more thing that we are sick about talking in turkey, we are talking about brexit. here we are a year later and it is still a big risk. trade numbers have shrunk the trade between e.u. and the u.k.
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has collapsed, and it is a real drag on u.k.. so, it is information and there are pros and cons, but overall i remain negative, i think the real sector outlook for the u.k. remains problematic. the energy crisis is another thing that is probably going to fight the u.k.. i'm sorry for bringing the bear -- for being the bearer of bad news, but that is how the weather looks like from across the pond. kailey: thank you. bringing up brexit deal, i remember that christmas eve of last year. i was the only person in the office and of course it was the biggest news day we had gotten in several weeks. oakley will not get a repeat. we are seeing some positive price actions with futures trading. s&p futures back at .3%. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritkia: third dose of astrazeneca's covid-19 vaccine boosted neutralizing antibodies according to studies at the university of oxford. the company says the vaccine has antibodies rising to similar levels against two doses and a booster shot against the delta variant. omicron seems to be less -- associated with a two point -- a two thirds lower risk of hospitalization, although it is 10 times more likely to infect those who have had covid. it shows people are less that 80% less likely to be hospitalized if they can -- catch it compared with other variants. german health officials say they expect a surge around the new year's and the country is warning people that they will likely need a fourth vaccine shot to maintain the best immune response.
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the government is urging germans to limit contacts over the holiday period. 75% of the population and 35% has boosters. unti -- intel plans to add facilities in france and italy as well as a major production site in germany. it will cost tens of billions of dollars. the ceo also wants to bring more production back to the u.s. and europe. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> no country can boost its way out of the pandemic.
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and, boosters cannot be seen as a take it to go ahead with the plan celebrations without the need for other precautions, blanket rooster programs are likely to prolong the pandemic rather than end it by diverting supply to countries that already have high levels of vaccination coverage, giving the virus more opportunity to spread and mutate. kailey: that was the director general of the world health organization warning against the overused of boosters, but they really seem to be the focus at the moment because we are getting more data of the efficacy of them against omicron and astrazeneca is just the latest. anna: yesterday was about the antivirals and today we are back about the boosters. we got news from astrazeneca about the effectiveness of their shots against omicron. if you have a booster in there as well. from a u.s. perspective, not much relevance and maybe not for
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a european perspective. it became a political football, and then it was you -- at first it was used a lot and then became a political football. if we are talking about spreading boosters around the world in this type of technology could be cheaper than others. kailey: let us continue the conversation on boosters and bring in a professor and epidemiologist at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. as we have this conversation it is no longer about the third booster now i potential fourth. you are seeing israel do that. what does the science tell you about whether or not it is necessary? >> the reason why there is so much enthusiasm for boosting is because we have seen that vaccine-induced immunity wanes over time, and you get a tremendous reinvigoration of the immune response with boosting. the israelis just this week published their data on preparing -- comparing people who had two doses of messenger
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rna with people who had a third boosting done, not a fourth, but a third, and that showed a 90% reduction in mortality. that is just really significant and dramatic. the astrazeneca data is also important because even though many countries are not using it and as you said many used astrazeneca early on. the fact is now, and the w.h.o. is working on this, many countries will have later doses. that is with the new vaccine coming along or with mrna, this is what happened in south africa. they started in south africa and now they are moving the mrna. the mixon mass -- match boosting strategy looks good. anna: that is the booster and the rollout of it. talking about how long immunity
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lasts, when we get the vaccine, is this unusual that the immunity lasts as little time as it seems to or fades as quickly as it seems to? is it unusual or is there a chance that signs moves on quickly to produce something that does not wane quite so quickly? dr. beyrer: this is the biology of coronaviruses, and with coronavirus group a that causes the common cold, you do not get that again in the season but you are vulnerable to next year. that is just how immunity to coronaviruses works, it wanes. it is not surprising. but what it means, probably is that we will have more regular boosting to keep that immunity up as long as the virus is still circulating. now, it is true, as he said that the big challenge, a huge challenge that we face is that so much of the world still has not seen their first doses and that we have to fix and that we
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have to fix in 2022. it is looking likely that we will have enough vaccines to immunize everybody and get that done by may or june. and then it will be a logistical operational challenge to immunize the rest of the world in low income countries. anna: thinking about the variant , how encouraged are you by what we have heard in the early studies, the scottish, english, and south african study pointing to lower hospitalization rates from omicron, which given the spread is either relief, but how comforted argue by that kind of data? dr. beyrer: it is encouraging, and we are always looking at science or things that are consistent. since you have data from three different looking populations suggesting the same lower risk of hospitalization of disease, that is encouraging. the data from south africa is the most compelling, that showed a two third reduction in hospitalization.
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that is a population with a high rate of having just recovered from a very serious surge in delta, so there was a lot of pre-existing community. -- immunity. we will have to see how that looks in other populations. it is both the bear -- the variant and the population that you have to look like -- look at. in the u.s. we have about 25% of the population who are just not immune eyes that all, and many of those people have been relying on the idea of natural immunity having recovered from covid. what we have seen from omicron that is not working. part of the reason is so infectious is that it is able to infect people who have already had covid including delta. damian: i would like to draw on your experience as the former president of the international aid society. any people are pointing to south africa as a precursor to improving conditions. for me, we all know south africa has a preponderance of immunocompromised individuals.
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how can we think that we are going to go on the same path of a country that many people have had aids and the virus, those that have not been boosted have probably had it already. what are your thoughts? dr. beyrer: it is a complicated picture. one thing to remember, south africa is 10 years younger than the u.s. and the u.k., a much younger population. and old age is a major cause of covid death and disease. but there is no question that south africa has the world's largest hiv epidemic. one in five adults. when we looked at immunizing health care workers in a study done with johnson & johnson, we immunized half a million health-care workers and proved to be robust protection against the delta variant, and 10% of that workforce is living with hiv. what we take away from that is that it is really important to prioritize people with
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immunocompromised for vaccination and boosting, that is extremely important for people living with hiv and tb and south africa has a huge tb problem. we have to do better with using our platforms, like the program that the u.s. supports in africa as a vaccine platform to protect those people. that is really important. kailey: really valuable, thank you so much for joining us this morning. it has been great to host the show with you all week. you get to enjoy the holidays. anna: i absolutely do. we have had that trio of reports around reduced hospitalization of omicron and that is all the news i can do in 2021. i am going to shut my ears and enjoy the festivities with the sound -- with another sound. kailey: there are a couple more hours for damien and i and we will joined by the investment
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solutions director at ubs active management america has. we will talk about the markets that continue to rally and the s&p futures up point 25% shy of the 200 level. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are looking at a more hawkish fed. >> we are in a chronic labor shortage that is not going away anytime soon. >> we keep having the problem of the recession coming back and hitting us again. it is called covid. >> we risk a policy error at this point. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. kailey: good morning on tv and radio. kailey leinz, damian sassower, and guy johnson in. santa claus has already come to this market. guy: he was always going to arrive at some point. it is being delivered on big volume. i think we will probably wait until the beginning of next year for we get an accurate gauge on what is happening. but the news

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