tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg December 9, 2021 11:00am-12:00pm EST
that looks set to be more hawkish next week. the countdown to the close starts right now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is "bloomberg markets: european close," with guy johnson and alix steel ♪ -- and alix steel. ♪ dani: let's get a check on these markets as we head towards the close. we are looking at european equities off of their lows for the day, now just down about 0.1%. this is really being dragged down by energy. those demand concerns about more mobility restrictions, more restrictions in general. what does that mean for those more risky assets? european stocks continuing to decline, matching some of the pace we are seeing in the u.s. we continue to expect, when it comes to next week's central-bank decisions, that we
will get more hawkish and us out of the fed than the ecb. we get news today that the ecb is looking at reinvesting, or how they might reinvest, some of that emergency purchase program, so we are looking at a continued weaker euro, down 0.5%. central-bank divergence continues to really be the story. we are looking at across sovereign bonds in europe, a lot of buying, but most acute in the u.k. to your yields, down by about four basis points so far this morning and starting to ease off a little bit at the moment. but as the u.k. also looks at covid restrictions, bets that the boe would tighten rates next week have been taken off the table. expectations are now that that will be pushed into february, maybe even later in the year. what does this all mean for growth if we are indeed entering another period where we are all just working from home? alix: don't even say it. are we for six weeks behind you
guys? that is really the question. in the u.s., health care one of the are performers in the s&p, down by about 0.3%. the nasdaq is leading the way lower. apple closed at a record for three days in a row. apple a little softer today, so that is definitely going to have an impact on those large-cap stocks. the money flowing into dollar, flowing into the bond market. a 30 year auction coming out later today. the 10 wasn't that bad. yields down by about four basis points. we will continue to talk about it over the next hour, the dollar dominance story. the blue bug -- the bloomberg dollar index up by 0.4%. you continue to buy the dollar? dani: covid restrictions back in focus after u.k. prime minister boris johnson yesterday announced new rules and advised people to work from home. pm johnson: it has become increasingly clear that omicron is growing much faster than the previous delta variant, and that
is why it is now the proportionate and response both in to move. dani: a fantastic piece out. when with about the new research in's and the u.k., we also have to put it in the context of the politics, and this alleged christmas party that happened forget for those of our viewers who aren't more familiar with u.k. politics, how does this complicate the message that boris johnson laid out yesterday? >> his own party is divided between those that oppose any restrictions on people's freedoms, restrictions that would hurt the economy, and those that are worried about the potential of the omicron variant to put pressure on the nhs. news that there was one or more parties at downing street last christmas at the height of the restrictions really come locates boris johnson's messaging. some business leaders have said they think it is cosmetic, these
new masking and other restrictions, and attempt to inflict attention from the downing street parties. in terms of omicron, we've got a little over 800 cases in the country, so for many people that sounds not terribly alarming. but what the health security agency has said is it is doubling every two to three days. that is why the prime minister acted when he did. problem is one of credibility right now. alix: listening to that presser last night was fascinating. with the latest data, 7300 people are hospitalized covid and 148 more deaths as of yesterday. this plan be in some ways makes no sense because you can still go to the gym and go to church and sing, but you have to wear a mask when you go on the subway. omicron isn't going to care about these little mask mandates here. do we get idea if people really think it is going to work? therese: it is continually
confusing when you have these kinds of guidances. there was a moment in the press conference where people were told you could work from home, or you should work from home, but you shouldn't necessarily cancel christmas parties. those kind of things end up confusing people. you can sing, so you can go to the theater you, you can go see a musical on the west end. you should wear a mask in the theater, but you can take it off to sing along with the musical. so those kinds of things are getting debated here. i think what is not open for debate is that the transmissibility of the omicron variant so far has looked pretty alarming. the question is how does that translate into the number of people who end up in the hospital. that is what we don't know yet. the hospitalization rates are still pretty high in the u.k.. they have been tolerated, but they are higher than in many
european countries. alix: it is such a good point, and we will be waiting for that. therese rafael of bloomberg opinion, thank you so very much. alex gorsky, j&j chairman and ceo, spoke to bloomberg's david westin about the progress they are having in combating the omicron variant. alex: we want to start to see how the omicron virus will be impacted by the current vaccine. we are encouraged by some of the data. we need to gather more to determine exactly what the efficacy profile will look like, but right now, we are already working on a nexgen rate and, should that be necessary. -- next generation, should that be necessary. alix: joining us is kate bingham, sv health investors managing partner. it is a sincere pleasure to talk to you today. before we get to the vaccine part, i want to get your take on
the plan b that boris johnson unveiled yesterday. what do you think of this? kate: i think all measures to try to limit the spread of this virus or this new variant makes sense. we do know it is more transmittable. we know that the vaccine is generating lower antibodies against this virus, but that does not mean the vaccines are less effective. what we measure is the antibody response, what way well form the major pastor protection is the cellular response, and we have not seen a huge spike in south africa, so i think it is right to be cautious. i certainly wear masks when i go to shops or to any crowded places, and i think we should continue doing that. dani: there's a lot of drama in the u.k., if you can call it that, over these alleged christmas parties that took place last year.
i am wondering if you are concerned whether the rollout and the continued encouragement to get vaccines to follow these rules is potentially under threat, along with government credibility. kate: i hope that what goes on politically will not strike people from going to get their boosters because the booster dose, that data is very compelling, that these provide improvements and protection. so i think everyone offered the opportunity to get a booster should get them, and billions and billions of doses have been given now around the world, so i think the whole issue of safety is well understood, and the power of these booster shots are very strong, so everyone who can get a shot should. alix: using we will be in a situation where every six months, we will need a booster? kate: no, but i am not a
physician, so you shouldn't really be listening to me. i think where we will end up is this will turn into a flulike annual shop for those who are most vulnerable. i think the data we are seeing, the third shot is so strong, we don't know how long the durability of that protection will be, but i would expect this to be an annual shop for the most vulnerable, and then to be confirmed as to what you do with younger people whether it needs to be annual. dani: i wonder how you weigh the importance of getting the booster versus making sure that developing markets have enough for initial vaccines and for second vaccines. how do you weigh the two? kate: i think it is an incredibly important point, this is the reason we've got omicron. it is exactly what was going to happen, and it looks likely that omicron developed in a severely immuno compromised individual that enabled these radical mutations to take place.
but if you look at the stats, 6% of africa has been vaccinated. that is 78 million doses out of a population of 1.3 billion. that is not a good step. we will continue seeing variants if we cannot get vaccines shipped, and the vaccines taken. it is not just a matter of access. it is also a matter of having credible organizations within those countries actually ensuring that people take the shots. and astrazeneca has done a phenomenal job. the latest stats i saw show that they have more vaccines than any other country in the world, more than pfizer, more than the chinese. alix: people need to want to take them, and he developed world seems to once the mrna. what using the future is for
the astra vaccine? kate: i think it is a very strong, powerful vaccine. if you think about the way our bodies evolved in terms of our immune system, they evolved to get rid of infectious agents, including viruses. so the immune response you get from a viral-based vaccine is likely to be broader and more durable than the immune response you generate from an mrna. so i think the two vaccines working readily well together, so you get the very rapid ability to manufacture these new mrna vaccines, i think they will be first out of the block. but followed with a broad set of boosters, i think adeno will play an important role in that because we are likely to generate these broader responses that are more durable, and the data on where you mix-and-match vaccines has been very encouraging, supporting that whole view of combining
different types of vaccines. dani: what do you make of the who saying that if you can, you should not be missing vaccinations? kate: that is just not with the most recent data says. the data came out in the last few days has suggested that you get an improved immune response if you do mix. ab the who wants to see bigger trials and trials done elsewhere. i don't know. but i was persuaded by the data ice all. dani: on top of the data for us. really appreciate it. thank you for joining us this morning. coming up, we are going to talk more about these markets, more about fx markets and the dollar dominance. we are going to be speaking to -- of bank of america securities next. this is bloomberg. ♪ g. ♪
♪ dani: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." the dollar continuing to hold onto its gains today as we look forward to cpi tomorrow and a fed decision next week. we are higher by about 0.4% on the bloomberg dollar spot. so do you buy into today's strength? joining us to discuss is the head of g10 fx strategy at bank of america securities. thank you for joining us this morning. help us work through this question. do you want to buy on this uptrend the dollar is currently on? >> absolutely. we believe there is more to go. our euro-dollar forecast for next year is $1.10 for further dollar strength.
the u.s. recovery will continue being stronger. u.s. inflation higher. the fed normalizing monetary policies even faster than marcus expect while the ecb is stuck with qe and negative interest rates. the dollar has done well this year, so from this point of view , there's definitely room for the dollar to strengthen against central banks such as the euro and the yen. alix: how much longer do you think the central banks can continue to diverge? the ecb is potentially working on extending its pepp program. the fed looks set to announce some kind of faster paper next week. how can this happen? thanos: we believe the moment of
truth is relatively early next year, starting with the fed meeting next week. the market is already pricing in more than the dot plot, and we believe the fed will need to do even more than what the market is pricing. we believe there are three hikes next year, or even four, and then one hike every quarter, which is eight hikes in the cycle. for the other central banks, the market may be pricing too much, we think. in particular, we believe we continue with qe next year, keeping rates on hold, but the moment might come middle of next year if inflation does not drop below the target which is what markets expect. at that point, the market will start pricing ecb normalization in 2023, but we are not there yet. dani: your argument isn't too
dissimilar from what bill dudley said, which is the fed is not going to be just talking about tapering more quickly in next week's meeting. they are going to be talking about raising interest rates, and the market isn't prepared for that. just how surprising with that sort of scenario be to markets? thanos: i think the announcement of a faster pace is expected. the market expects the fed will move towards the two hikes the market is pricing. the question is, will they start pricing three hikes or even more and a faster pace afterwards? i think this is very likely because inflation is well above the target, and the fed needs to go through the communication and their policies and correct the mistakes they have been doing this year. they have been dealing with this crisis as if they were dealing with the previous crisis.
we have seen much higher inflation, and the fed i think is too cautious. they found themselves overshooting the inflation target. so the fed really needs to change, and the big challenge for them is how can they do that while supporting equities, not actually triggering a sharp market correction even though the market has been relying on the fed policy put. alix: and i wonder what the after affects of that are because that is going to affect asset classes over the world, which brings me more to the u.k. as we are talking about the fed paring back some support, i wonder if we need to start talking about the governments and the bank of england putting in more support. if you wind up having restrictions, are we going to see that? are we going to start hearing about that? thanos: the bank of england
confused people recently. to be fair, there are a lot of upsetting forces here, so they are trying to strike a very delicate balancing act. for now, they will be on hold. there's a lot of uncertainty with the new covid wave, the new restrictions. they are also dealing with surprises, but we do believe they will start harking next year at a slower pace than markets expect. the market is pricing three or four hikes next year. we have two. although we also have inflation in the u.k., the economy is not overheating as we see in the u.s. in a way, it is affected by negative supply shocks and by competitions from brexit, which causes higher prices, so although the bank of england will be moving towards normalization, it will be a much slower pace than the fed, and most likely will not be able to
go as far as the market is pricing. alix: fair enough. thank you very much. we really appreciate your time today. thank you for joining us. some breaking news for you. the fda is expanding the covid pfizer vaccine eligibility to 16 to 17-year-olds, so expanding the eligibility for father/biontech boosters to six -- for pfizer/biontech boosters to 16 to 17-year-olds. we know now that the booster is quite important when it comes to fighting omicron. this is bloomberg. ♪
authorities accused the company of harmful practices. amazon says it will appeal. the company has expanded its shipping services in europe. it is europe's stem vicious payout plan. the italian bank unicredit plans to extend it least $18.1 billion to shareholders by 2024, part of the strategy to revamp unicredit. bloomberg has learned the u.s. justice department has told borja bank it may have violated a critical settlement. the german bank agreed to pay more than $130 million to settle charges come abroad foreign officials, and disrupted the market for metals futures. that is the latest business flash. dani: thanks so much. it is really fascinating. it seems like deutsche bank is yet again the problem child, but i think it is really fascinating
what they are accused of doing here. it has to with greenwashing. there was a whistleblower saying their active management arm was essentially lying about their promises on esg, and the regulators here, the doj saying this is something you should have alerted us to. alix: i have to wonder how long ago was this. i feel like it is important to distinguish what are probes from a while ago and probes that new management's response before. they can say we are doing things different now, etc. dani: a fresh review into these claims happened back in october, but of course, the reason this is getting doj scrutiny is because in january, they had to settle a different issue, so it is kind of like the stacking on top of each other, where one snowballs into the next. alix: but aren't they reducing their office space to save some money? there is a headline right now that deutsche bank and natwest are telling london staff to work from home. dani: it kind of gets back to
the question we had when the work from home thing was more prevalent. can you save money and cut some of your office space? it looks like that is what bojo been plans to do, specifically here in london. alix: again, that headline that deutsche bank and natwest tells staff to work from home. jeffrey's also made that announcement. it is coming. dani: and we are heading into the close, and the mood isn't great, perhaps because of those concerns of what this all means for the economy. lower across the board, most severely in the dax, were deutsche bank lives, so perhaps not a surprise that is underperforming. the close is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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some of the enthusiasm we have seen running out of steam and reversing. most of the different benchmarks in the region lower by about .2%. underperformance from germany. it is a banking story there. also a banking story in italy. markets just closing. the u.k. index down .2%. overall not a lot of opportunities to end in the green. looks a lot like what happened in the u.s.. slipping as we got further into the session. we started the day with little bit of optimism, but we cannot hold onto any of those gains. late in the day trading as we pushed lower into the weekend. we have the ecb next week. you really want to be holding on when the trade seems to be this
divergence between the u.s. and europe? here is grr digging into some of the sectors. the worst performing sector is energy. that fell more than 1.1%. if you're worried about omicron, and means people are staying at home. lyft is staying at home. deutsche bank staying at home. what that will mean for demand for oil? technology not acting as a safe haven in the equity space. that is your second worst performing sector. at the top it is these more safe haven bond proxy indices. consumer goods as the best performer, up .6%, followed by health care, then media and utilities as well. it does give you a good idea, the textbook risk on/risk off. the jumble of them together
means we end down .1% on this equity index. let's dig into some of the individual stories as well. while the benchmark itself was flat and it was a big macro day, we are worried about demand, economic growth, looking at a poe that perhaps will be on hold next week -- a boe perhaps on hold next week. we did see weakness in the cable rate. the euro declines. that translates into u.k. benchmark that can sometimes outperform but everything dragging it down. we came into the morgan hearing from j.p. morgan that they expect another investment banking bonanza. they expect investment banking revenue to keep on rolling. at the same time citigroup warning they are might not be as strong. in that context we got the news from unicredit, planning $18
billion in planned return to shareholders. this is double the amount they had estimated previously. because of that we are looking unicredit up 10%, an opposite story when it comes to deutsche bank. some of the mood music unable to help deutsche bank. because of the settlement they had earlier in january, they have to disclose any potential misconduct. the doj saying they might've done so by not disclosing a whistleblower complaint. finally, looking at deliveroo, it was weaker through most of the day, coming off the stay-at-home trade being put on. concern has to do with the new eu rule that people who work for food delivery services, you now are presumed to be an employee. it is the onus on the platform to prove their part-time worker. though shares down .9%. alix: let's get more on
deliveroo and how these platforms will be affected by the eu labor rules. giles thorne joins us now. he has a buy rating on deliveroo and moonlighted as a deliveroo driver. drivers want to be classified as full time workers? giles: i cannot account for all drivers. for my part, from working within the gig economy and having worked at multiple jobs throughout my life, everything from investment banking to delivering papers when i was a kid, this is a very different type of labor. it was infinitely flexible, infinite discretion to me as the individual, i worked when i wanted to. i could have sat on my couch and done nothing all day there
would've been no repercussions against me. this is definitely something that is a progressive model and calls for progressive regulation. dani: such a fascinating study you did. the big picture, if this is going to change these markets in europe you have to look at these drivers and bike riders as employees, how much is this likely to cause the deliveroo's of the world? giles: i think we should be reframing the debate. the eu's intent according to the press release today, the eu intent is to create a more social digital europe. the intent is not carte blanche reclassification. the opening statements of the commissioner were very favorable language around the impact digital platforms have on overall eu industrial ambitions.
we need to reframe the debate. the intent is to create a better social contract between myself, the restaurants, the platforms come in the individual that brings me my lunch. the one with the weakest power has been the rider. the eu looks at that situation, finally grasping the gig economy and saying that individual needs better protections. this is not about carte blanche reclassification. alix: fair enough. what is priced into the stock? giles: the stocks are doing what they like to do, which is price uncertainty. i do not think these stocks are particularly pricing an outcome where there is a huge unmanageable amount of cost inflation. any cost inflation that did come through would not necessarily be
fully subsumed by the platform. there are more stakeholders around that. what the platforms are doing -- what the share prices are doing, i think they're a bit confused. there is two minutes volatility around the stocks, there is uncertainty around the business model, it is already a lossmaking business model in europe. that would be my best characterization. at this point i think they're probably discounting more downside risk than is actually going to happen. dani: i want to hone in on that and try to understand how the business model is impacted by this decision? if the framing is incorrect, if it is about giving the worker more power, does the business model need to change or is it something different that is underway?
giles: the business model is constantly changing because the runway for secular growth is so large something new is already coming along. his challenge for investors. they are dealing with a lot of flux. if we were to paint in black-and-white, if you had to reclassify part of your rider base, there are cost inflationary aspects around. particularly holiday pay, pensions, those type of things. equally the unit pay the individual get will probably go down. when i was working for deliver00 i was earning about -- for deliveroo i was earning about 16 pounds for delivery. if i look at a business that is paying minimum wage -- the inflation around benefits and protections and the deflation or
tailwinds around the amount these individuals are paid. if the overall net result is cost inflation, the second order would be how that cost inflation shared across state borders to contribute to that box being delivered? that will take us down to a discussion around competitive dynamics in any given mark work -- in any given market. at the end of the day come this is about getting me the consumer to have a better social contract with the individual that is bringing me my box. five to pay an extra 25p on a delivery fee, it is likely the consumer will just subsume that. behavior will not revert to the old way of doing things. that is the history of the internet. dani: willing to pay up for the comfort of getting the box straight your couch. so great to have you.
reframing the conversation process. that is giles thorne of jeffries. let's check where markets are settling. we are looking at declines across the board. underperformance from the dax. a lot of that has to do with the drag from deutsche bank. the cac 40 outperforming, down just .1%. alix: in the u.s. you have stocks off the lows of the session. we will break down all the market action on "the cable" at 12:00 and new york and 5:00 in london. find it on dab digital radio if you are in london and if you're not, find it on spotify and apple podcast. guy will be joining me from his location. e-commerce grossly platform goes public. we will talk to the ceo and cofounder. this is bloomberg.
ritika: this is "the european close." coming up, an exclusive interview with brian moynihan at 2:30 in new york, 7:30 in london. this is bloomberg. let's check it on the bloomberg first word news. president biden has infuriated some eastern european nato allies with an offer to europe. the president has proposed they could meet with russia to discuss the military buildup along the border with you rain. -- with ukraine. there is concern what kind of concessions the talks could lead to. in the u.k. business groups are calling for government support after force johnson tightened
pandemic -- after boris johnson find pandemic rules. the new limits could cost the economy -- force johnson mandated the use -- boris johnson --the panel says the party failed to properly report a donation used to refurbish the prime minister's home. the find more than $23,000. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: is a soggy take, but some stocks are outperforming. online gradually platform boxed is up -- online grocery platform boxed is up 42%. it went public with a merger. boxed cells consumables and licenses its e-commerce software to retailers and delivers anywhere incognito u.s..
joining us is chieh huang, boxed cofounder and ceo. congratulations. this is a big deal on a tough day. how are you feeling? chieh: what a morning it has been to have the trade halted three times already on the way up. we feel blessed. we just announced this google partnership. nothing but great news. when you go -- alix: when you go public like this any you have all of this extra cash, where you going to do with that? chieh: we want to be a management team where we go out with a plan and tell everyone what we will do and execute it. in our original investor presentation we laid out that plan. additional headcount for our b to b business to be ready when the world goes back to work. you just mentioned before we licensed our software all over the world, including to the largest brick-and-mortar
retailer, or second largest brick-and-mortar retailer in asia. additional boots on the ground will be very important for us to continue to deliver software growth we see ahead. dani: great to speak to you. congratulations. i wonder what it is like, the prospect of going public in this environment where we see very volatile markets. at any point did you contemplate putting it off? chieh: absolutely. i watch the news, i watch your show like everyone else does. seeing the chop in the market, it is very difficult. we have a lot of growth ahead of us. as people go back to work, and the state wonderful partnership we signed to continue the growth path in our software. now is the time for us in the market reacted. alix: fair enough. let's go to what you are noticing on the ground. can you walk me through how your business has evolved in the last
year and a half during the pandemic and any trends you're noticing now as certain areas of the globe are starting to do work from home and have more restrictions? chieh: we are starting to see some folks returned to the office. not in terms of five days a week but people are starting to experiment with hybrid work and that is going to be very important. we sell not only big consumables not only to consumers, but also to businesses. that is comprised 25% of our business before covid. we are seeing that growth earlier this year and we are hoping as we get past omicron and covid in general and learn to live with it people will return to work and we will be the beneficiaries of that. dani: have you seen any trends that would suggest because of omicron people are ordering more online at this moment? chieh: certainly we are seeing supply chain challenges, not only from increased ordering but also the supply chain challenges in general you have covered
quite broadly on your show. overall i would say it is anecdotal. in some ways we are hedged on both sides. folk stay-at-home order more in our business will say -- will see explosive growth. as people go back to work we will see the b to b business come back. alix: what we have heard our price increases because of supply chain issues and passing them on to offset the higher cost stop how do you negotiate that environment? chieh: it is not an easy time for the industry. when you look at all the raw materials going into it, prices for manufacturing, cost for manufacturers will go up. everything we sell is made in the u.s.. we see all of those ships docked off of l.a., it does not affect us as much. consumer packaged goods, most of what we sell is made in built in the u.s.
dani: i was going to say perhaps you do not have the problem of your brick-and-mortar your cosco of needing to start chartering your own ships and planes. what about prices, is that something you are thinking about raising and passing on to consumers? chieh: a little bit of inflation is probably good for the industry. the levels we are seeing now is what we have seen traditionally. we have a close eye on it. if it goes higher that is something that will affect the consumer quite a bit. for us we are trying to absorb as much as we can and pass on when we absently have to. if you come into boxed and you buy eight items, that basket will still be very compelling. apples to apples to other online retailers when you look at how much you're getting when you buy in bulk. emily: -- dani: you are also -- alix: you are also expanding into more fresh goods.
does that come with different costs? chieh: joking aside, we can deliver 20,000 granola bars to your studio if you really like that. we have done that before. we'll address it to you. food comes with new challenges and new opportunities. we just close this acquisition of max delivery in new york. we also did not position as we were going public, and that business is wonderful. wt -- w-2 employees with the at those of our mission. giving people a path to a career. the ito's is there. the average -- that those -- the ethos is there. alix: it was really fun talking to you. lots more trends to uncover. chieh huang, boxed ceo. stay with bloomberg all day
u.s.. bloomberg's pretty cooped up -- bloomberg's kriti gupta is with us. not a pretty day. kriti: i want to focus on the airlines, a lot of pain if you are invested in the airlines. american airlines said they have to trim their international lights because they do not have enough -- their international flights because they do not have enough 787 dreamliner's, saying boeing has delayed producing those. a similar story in southwest. he did see price cuts from jp morgan and a downgrade from jeffries. those airlines, can they recover their balance sheets, let's go over to ev. those are struggling. massive spending plan. you do have that weighing on the entire sector. tesla is down 3.3% after their chinese sales dropped.
lucid dropping 10% after their floating their convertible bonds. alix: that is the lay of the land today and there is still a lot in the next 24 hours. today president biden is holding a call with the president of ukraine on the russian troop buildup we have earnings from oracle, broadcom, and lululemon, plus the starbucks union vote count. i'm interested in this one. it does see -- it does feed in to whether we will see unions get more power. dani: tomorrow we have cpi in the u.s. and the royal dutch shell shareholders meeting. alix: coming up, "balance of power." this is bloomberg. ♪
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westin. joe: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide , welcome to "balance of power." i am joe mathieu along with emily wilkins. we are now counting down to the end of the year on capitol hill. welcome to the last gasp. we have some big votes today on the debt ceiling. after that it is anybody's guess. we talk about supply chain bottlenecks. capitol hill has its own bottleneck. the question is will anything else get done? emily: that is a huge question. we have the deadline things done, the government is funded, the debt limit is on track to be raised.