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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 29, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EST

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we have definitely seen some signs of euphoria. >> a lot of people are looking beyond the virus. >> i think we need to remain reasonably calm. >> the fear that is driving prices, and i would not as get in the way of that, is like catching a falling knife. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting your trading week started. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. -- alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with kailey leinz. tom: we wait for the president speaking. we wait to see if this economic recovery continues. greg valliere saying it is
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humming, but this bounce this morning, it is a great bounce, but not a convincing bounce. we need to hear science news. jonathan: we will talk about whether you should fade friday or fade this morning. we will get to that point in just a moment. the view from jan hatzius, the range of medical and economic outcomes remains unusually wide. that is going to be the case for the next couple of weeks. tom: but how do companies adapt? jonathan: they have done all this year. let's be clear about that. tom: i wonder how the successful stay-at-home companies adapt to this, and the answer is they are going to wake up and say let's go to work. that is going to be the tone. jonathan: it seemed very clear maybe a week ago. the federal reserve the middle of december, the bank of england, the ecb, and i'll of a sudden, we are talking about
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something else. kailey: it is going to take weeks to get a clearer picture of what exactly the obligations are for growth, and yet central mics have to make decisions and about two weeks and change in what they are going to do on monetary policy. do they wait until there is more information, if there is not a clear picture? or do they proceed with what the market has been expecting, a faster tightening given the inflation picture? jonathan: weigh in on this. how responsive will this market the two incoming data? tom: i am just looking at 4.5% of the survey on the unemployment rate. a lot of people looking for a better statistic than that. we will have to see. if we get 500,000 nonfarm payrolls, that is delay recovery. jonathan: does that move the dial? tom: i don't have the information, starting with the president this morning. he's got to talk about getting vaccinated. that is it. jonathan: that is the difficulty
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for market participants on friday. how to respond -- how do you respond to a strong print if you still don't know what the very end means to the economy? kailey: what will the reaction function be if you are seeing a continually recovering labor market, making progress towards that portion of the dual mandate? inflation has been running hot. does that mean central bank's have to react even if there is a little bit of cloudiness on the growth picture? that is the question. jonathan: let's pick up on the price action. here is the bounce. we are up by 0.7% after a move lower in friday's session. you see the move on the 10 year yield, up about seven basis points on tends to about 1.54%, after a move above out -- a move of about 16 points on friday's session. tom: in the weekend reading, is
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anybody talking about an adjustment of the taper schedule after everything we have seen? jonathan: we heard from bostic on friday. what did he say? i'm open to it. kailey: we were talking about jan hatzius and his calls on different growth implications to penning on the severity of the very end on thursday is when he published she expects that come january, the fed will be doubling the speed of its tapering. he also sees left off in june. does he start to think differently about that calculus as we approach the fed decision in about two and a half weeks? as for what is on deck today this cyber monday, i don't know if you buy your christmas trees online, but you could buy a lot of other holiday gifts online. i do be is expecting it to be the number one shopping day of the year. could be as much as $11.3 billion being spent. consumers so far have proven they are willing to pay up. also going on today, speaking of policy and the virus, the president will be giving a speech on the ohmic on variant at 11:45 eastern time from the white house.
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an opportunity not just to detail what policy response will becoming, but to push to get more american vaccinated. how does this tie into the president's economic agenda? fed chair jerome powell will be speaking at 3:00 p.m. eastern time. we will be hearing a lot from the chairman this week, not just today, but also tuesday and wednesday as he testifies before congress on capitol hill. what does he say about the virus and its implications for monetary policy? jonathan: will he be asked about christmas tree scarcity? kailey leinz was promoting whole food down -- whole foods down in tribeca. my perspective, home depot, same-day delivery got it done. tom: on green needles or silver needles? jonathan: green needles with the lights already set.
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tom: the ones my grandmother had, where they turn different colors? jonathan: no, white lights, seven and a half feet tall. home depot is up more than 50% this year. tom: do you keep it? jonathan: we keep it. i'm very conscious about climate change. tom: you are a sensitive guy this morning. i am on high alert. jonathan: we will talk about this christmas tree scarcity throughout the week, as tom tries to hunt down a christmas tree in new york city. jim b uncle -- jim b anke -- jim bianco joins us now, resident and founder of bianco research. do you fade today or friday? guest: look, i don't know much about viruses and i am not a virologist, but i will say what is the biggest problem the
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economy has right now is the great resignation and the supply chain problem. this, with all of the restrictions we are about to get, is not going to help that situation. it is going to make it worse. that probably means some constraints are going to get worse. you are lucky you got you christmas tree when you did. it is likely to get harder in the coming weeks as well. that might mean more inflation. we got record demand for durable consumption, record demand for retail products, but yet we don't have those products to meet them. they are either stuck in the los angeles port or we are just not going back to work to make them. this is not going to help that situation, and it is not going to be resolved anytime soon. tom: you synthesize like nobody. i put you and michael garda on -- michael darda on top of that. can you say that even with this news, corporations will adapt?
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jim: they will adapt, no doubt. but what is different now versus january of 2020 or even when we got the delta variant in may, we've got the economy humming. we've got people wanting stuff. we've got inflation. we did not have inflation in may, or if we did we were firmly convinced it was transitory. we were worried about deflation back in january and february of 2020, so this is going to change the calculus quite a bit, especially for the federal reserve, because it is easy for them to say if there is any kind of restriction in the economy, we will just ease aggressively. that works when you don't have inflation, but when you do have inflation and you try to stimulate, especially an economy already suffering from a supply chain problem, so let's stimulate even more demand, you might end up making it worse. jonathan: are you anticipating a fed put with this kind of backdrop? jim: the fed put should be
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questioned when you have inflation. when you don't have inflation, then you don't have to question it as much because the fed put would and if it both stocks and bonds. but now if they start stimulating, the bond market might not like it because it might perceive it is going to accelerate inflation. the stock market might like it, but you won't get the same reaction out of both markets like we have every other time. tom:tom: if i have a longer-term perspective, forget about the traders scalping us weeks out, if i am out quarters, do i change anything today? jim: you don't change anything today and you might not change anything this week, but if we get enough restrictions, you are going to see higher and faster inflation because there is one way you can fix the supply chain problem. you raise prices enough to cool demand, so everything comes back in the balance.
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that is kind of the losing way to fix it. that is what i would be most concerned about long-term. does this potentially mean i can restrictions? everybody wants the same amount of stuff, so therefore it means higher inflation. jonathan: i'm willing to sell the tree fully decorated. there's always a price. i am willing to go there. what would you pay for it? thousands? are you willing to go into the thousands? tom: i would whether -- i would rather put the christmas ornaments on vet bill than get a fake tree. jonathan: you don't want a victory? tom: fake -- a fake tree? jonathan: fake trees are un-american? kailey: you know he's not american, right? jonathan: jim, good to catch up. tom: can you see me with vet bill with the antlers on like the grinch?
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[laughter] jonathan: jim points out the fed going into this meeting in a couple of weeks. kailey: it is going to be interesting to his he how the jobs day informs what the fed is doing because this could feed more into inflationary forces. at what point does the fed have to react to that no matter what? jonathan: that meeting a couple of weeks away. .4 hours after that, you will hear from the ecb and the bank of england. can you do that chainsaw impression again? [mouth noises] [laughter] jonathan: excellent. can we do this through the morning? tom: it is a skill. get? -- get it? skill? saw? jonathan: a bit niche. tom: you sound like the guys -- it is like, "get back" is like
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you. you can't understand a word of it. jonathan: up 0.75% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it warning from the world health organization. it says the new omahan variant could lead to surges of the coronavirus with severe consequent is. the variant was first detected in south africa. the who assessed omahan's risk -- a micron'-- oh micron -- omicron 's risk as extremely high. opec and its allies will discuss the impact of the variant at their meeting this week, according to russia's deputy prime minister. it is another sign that the opec+ coalition may consider a production increase in january. choppers returned to stores in the u.s. on black friday, but
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traffic remained well below prepend pandemic levels. visits to stores and shopping centers rose 48% from a year ago . still down from 2019. in new york, final jury selection and opening our events are set today in the trial of ghislaine maxwell. she faces as much as 40 years in prison. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: 90 day jail time for
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cutting christmas trees in central park. is that true, tom? tom: 90 days, or up to $15,000. i would be getting a smaller tree so it wouldn't be as large. jonathan: you would take the cash fine? probably cheaper just to buy mine, but he is so against fake trees, he will not go there. here's your price action in the equity market. the s&p 500 with a bounce from friday's crater. tom: we cratered. we are on hilar. -- we are on high alert. jonathan: yields are higher by seven basis points to 1.54%. crude at $71.54. tom: we have come back a little bit on the bounce up here. i'm watching the vic's. 25.10 on the vic's. it was a 24 handle -- on the
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vix. it was a 24 handle when we started the morning. what is the power of the middle of the democratic party this morning? the president will be speaking to the nation and to the elections of 2022. what is the power of that middleground? >> i think the middleground today is going to be covid. this has been a massive distraction. if you're going in terms of the midterms here. the way the president is dealing with this is going to be key. i think he's going to call for calm and point to what has already been done. if we are going to extrapolate this and talk about dental successes or failures with the midterms, a lot of it will come back to the way this president handled covid. you have to remember today we have pretty good protections with international travel. you have to be fully vaccinated. the president will point back to
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his six pronged plan that people , including me, made fun of at the beginning of september because why three prongs aren't enough, we don't know. but it included this employer vaccine mandate. this president might look fairly well prepared as he speaks to the american public. tom: you and the president had a scone or whatever they are called at wicked island bakery this week in nantucket. what he would have talked about is he doesn't want to do a george bush. i would suggest that all of washington, both parties are hardwired off the failure of the katrina response which is to get out front of it. that is really what we are dealing with right now. joe: that is right. this president says we have been in front of it. we got you through delta. we have handled travel. we are dealing with maxine's and basking despite the political implications. america is in a fairly good place to deal with it instead of saying we need to shut down the
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airports and start creating policy. the biggest obstacle for this president has been politics, the politicizing of masking and vaccines when it comes to covid. kailey: but speaking of the politics, between messaging between republicans and democrats, is there any party that is not on board with this, or is there consensus in washington among the executive and legislative branch, does not among the populace? joe: when it comes to covid, i don't have to tell you that the idea of masking in schools, masking at work, mandating vaccines has been very controversial, and resulting in litigation as the president tries to pursue this mandate for companies that have more than 100 employees. he already put one in place for federal contractors. it is difficult to answer that specifically with regard to legislation or how most of the mainstream parties are handling it. but when you get to the local level, the state level, the discourse we've heard between
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this president and a number of republican governors has been less than productive. kailey: at the federal level, this is not the only item to consider, as congress returns from recess. they only have 10 working days in theory on the calendar before their next recess. are we just going to kick the can down the road before they come back for the new year? joe: we'll kick one big can, and that is government funding. there's a resolution they will deal with by the end of this week. here we are again was really no progress on this. the question is what happens to the debt ceiling. that was also supposed to expire on december 3, but it looks like, according to the treasury and the bipartisan policy center, that lawmakers will have a couple of weeks to play with here. are democrats finally going to handle this on their own through reconciliation? that is the big question as mitch mcconnell stands by his guns and says he will not go near it. there could be maybe some backroom negotiating as chuck schumer and mitch mcconnell have met on this, to at least create
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a scenario in which republicans don't try to slow the process through extended vote aromas -- photo rama -- vote-o-rama's. jonathan: joe, always good to hear with you. bloomberg's joe mathieu. don't miss "sound off" on bloomberg radio, weekdays at 5:00. looking forward to that one a little bit later. here is a call that would have some big political consequences, from j.p. morgan in the equity team. brent prices will reach $125 a barrel in 2022, $150 a barrel the year after, due to a lack of severe capacity. brent will reach $125 and 2022 and $150 the year after on spare capacity. tom: this is a complete shift. what is so important in this
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statement from jp morgan is who it comes from. this is christyan malek off the equity desk. it is different from edward morse or francisco blanch. it is synthesizing their global economic view, the global commodities view, right down to the granularity of what it means for the oil complex. jonathan: they say that true opec+ spare capacity next year will be 2 million barrels a day, below the consensus estimates of four and 8 million. that is one heck of a number, basically double where we are trading this morning. kailey: to be fair, you have seen that reflected in the production hikes that opec has put into place thus far. they actually have an produced as much -- have not produce as much. so i wonder how much that translates into what jp morgan is saying here. i think it is also interesting the u.s. part of this is predicated on $150 a barrel oil, is lower response. so those shale papers -- those shale players may not be pumping
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of much either. tom: the supply and demand on oil, that is not news. the key sentence here is opec+ depends on the efficacy of the spare capacity, set to fall to a 25 year low of 4%, down from an average of 14%. that is huge delta. jonathan: opec+ will beat a little later this week. could you imagine the politics of what 25 of wondered $50 would mean right now? tom: we are at $80 and bouncing around here. isaac we have framed out $90, maybe $100. that is it. jonathan: where are we? $71 44 sent -- $71.44. your equity market this morning up 0.7% on the s&p, advancing 31
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points. yields higher by seven or eight bases its to 1.54%. tom: don't cut down a central park -- a tree in central park. you have to go up north. jonathan: how far up north? tom: into canada. jonathan: just keep going north until you find a tree. until you find a tree.
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jonathan: i can't get the idea out of my head of cn ve -- of seeing vet bill with antlers on in central park in the middle of the night, tom with a chainsaw cutting down a tree. tom: really, the city takes it very seriously. i went a couple of years ago to the north side, just be on harlem. jonathan: just having a look. tom: just looking around. the officer stopped me and said we don't care that you work for mr. bloomberg. jonathan: i hope that is not a true story. from new york this morning, good morning to you all. jonathan ferro, tom keene. kailey leinz sitting in for lisa abramowicz. lisa will be back next week. on the nasdaq, up 0.8%.
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switch up the board and get to what is happening elsewhere. we talked about crude already in this turnaround, up by four pointed percent. it is not a big move. aussie-yen had a move of 2.6% in friday's session. take that good risk proxy, the haven status, -2.6 percent on friday's session. today, a move 0.1 per 5% -- a move of 0.5%. tom: it is a huge pacific rim proxy, along with asia dxy, and the answer is we don't know. you mentioned it earlier, zero covid is the theme in asia. you wonder with oma krohn -- with omicron, how are they going to handle it? jonathan: as you have set all morning, we've got to wait for more information on this virus.
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jonathan: let's talk about the bond market. your 10 year yield down 14 basis points in friday's session, now up just five to about 1.55%. that meeting for the federal reserve is going to be fascinating. we still don't have the information we need to get some clarity on this mutation. kailey: the fed may have to make that decision without information. do they decide to stay the course, stick with the pace of their tapering of asset purchases, or do they decide to accelerate over the course of the week, including on friday -- or over the weekend, when raphael bostic spoke? he did not seem that worried about what it would mean for the pace of tapering. jonathan: december 15 is in the diary, the meeting for the federal reserve. now we can get some stock movers with growing nest -- with romaine bostick. romaine: in a couple of weeks here, we came into this month
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thinking about the idea that stocks were basically searching for some sort of direction. it had a lot more to do with inflation. now it is about omicron and that covid variant, and how folks are going to respond. a note out this morning providing a mixed guidance here. some folks saying you really need to reassess where you go. what is moving today, moderna higher by about 10%. we started this month with moderna seating its crown as the best stock in the s&p five -- the s&p 500. both companies talking about that they could be digitally have -- could potentially have an omicron variant ready in a couple of months. tom: did you see any capitulation of the s&p 5000 people? romaine: most of the people bullish said we would go into next year in the range that
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basically set their guns on that. they said this is probably a little bit overblown, and the short-term pain in the markets and even potentially in the economy will be short-term. you can see some of the rebound we are seeing in the airline stocks. carnival cruise and a lot of the going up stocks, the great treasuries rally we saw last week, that has kind of reversed itself, and that has given a boost to some of the bank stocks. tom: thank you so much. i am looking at the vix, 25 .01. a little bit soft in the last hour. maybe some steadiness right now. et al. husseini -- ed al- hussainy is global rates strategist for columbia threadneedle. i love what you said about money shall -- about money shall -- about minutae. how do you keep a big picture if
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it is minutae monday? ed: the context here is the virus and the evolution of the virus has shaped everything in the course of the past 18 months . shaped policy on the fiscal and monetary policy front, shaped labor market outcomes, and it has shaped how the consumer incorporates have responded over the course of the last year and a half. this is a good opportunity to refocus on those themes and take a look at how they are likely to evolve over the next six to 12 months with this new risk that is front and center right now. tom: it is a global rates theme to make money, or to not lose money? ed: at the moment i would say it is more not to lose money. we are starting with levels of yield, particularly in the longer end of the curve, that are relatively low. 30 yields -- 30 year yields
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closer to 1.80%, which is the low for the year, then even they were in the first quarter, when we had that significant move higher. inflation is closer to 6%. we have had significant fiscal stimulus working its way through the system. when you look ahead, i think we have several scenarios where rates move higher, particularly if inflation turns out to be more persistent and the fed is more forceful in squeezing it out of the system. at the same time, we have the economy likely to slow as fiscal stimulus steps back. there's a balance between these two factors that doesn't give us a lot of directionality, so i would say it is going to be quite defensive. kailey: are you seeing it really doesn't matter how quickly the fed tapers if they finish halfway through next year or three months from now? ed: i think it matters. it creates a lot of room for them to tighten earlier and potentially a little bit faster,
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but i think it matters a lot for the front end of the curve and the belly of the curve than it does to the long end. delong and has not moved that much, even as we have priced almost three hikes into 2022 over the course of the last quarter or so. the flattening theme in the curve i think has cut a lot of people off side. i think people expected the curve to steepen as the fed brought forward hikes. kailey: how much of that do you think is concerns around the virus that outweighs whatever happens with policy because there will still be a bid for treasuries? ed: i think definitely that. it is a balance between two things. first, rates can rise in the short to medium-term as the economy recovers and the labor market recovers in particular, and as we get a look at how inflation will settle over the course of the next year. at the same time, the longer-term structural forces that have been bringing rates down over the course of the past
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three decades, they are still with us. if anything, accelerated in the course of the pandemic. so it is these two forces coming together that will determine where rates settle over the next one or two years. tom: i am catching you unawares here. that is unfair to you. jp morgan modeling out a persistent $80 plus brent crude, with surges as high as $150 a barrel over the next 24 months. what does that do to your world if and when we would see that outlier call? edward: it is interesting. any rates space, you start to think about breakevens. that is the closest proxy we have for oil moving to those sorts of extremes. rates will remain elevated. right now, the starting level of breakevens is relatively high. we are consistent with inflation
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averaging north have 3% over the next decade. that is if the fed reaction function remains intact. if oil is close to $100 plus, particularly if it does so quickly in the next one or two years, you could see those breakevens remain relatively elevated. jonathan: good to catch up. good to your from you, as always. it was a week ago we heard chairman powell will get a second term. it felt like a life ago. when week ago. tom: you go to the jobs report, and who knows what we will see there? i am getting the details on this jpmorgan note. this is somebody who would field by field to try to calculate that spare capacity, and the normal is 14% spare capacity. for percent spare capacity at 25 year lows, stunning. jonathan: you're right to go back to it. it gets your attention.
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they think we get a lift, and that left sticks, and more. kailey: i have to wonder if this assumes you won't get any kind of iranian crude coming back under the market because we also have to keep in mind those talks are resuming again in vienna today through proxies. we have seen many rounds of talks that have come to know fruition of any kind, but do you end up seeing removal of sanctions? ? that would bring a lot of capacity back onto the market. tom: what is so important here, i look at the chainsaw we were talking about earlier, and f got a 9.5 ounce gasoline capacity and the steel saw. you say it is not a lot, but you've got to refill that puppy. jonathan: do you want to explain this to our listeners on radio, what i can see on the screen right now? tom: you are advantaged on radio right now because it is the beautiful walkway of central park, which i have had the privilege of sitting in during a snowstorm like that, and folks, they've got me with a chainsaw
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out there. guys, this is rachel in the control room. rachel, those are oak trees. those are not christmas trees. jonathan: you wouldn't go there. that is just one of the entries. i believe we've got a second one as well. tom: thank you for listening and putting the out of a job. can you see the mayor looking at this and saying, i am not amused? [laughter] jonathan: i think this particular mayor might be disappointed for more than one reason, perhaps. tom: he's got a whole list. jonathan: and i don't think that list is going to end here. i think you will keep adding to it over time. your equity market is up 36 on the s&p. we turn around a little bit. we are up 0.8%, and we wait for more details. are you going to take that call on the break? up seven basis points on tends to 1.5466%. and crude, $71.73.
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jp morgan looking for crews to go next year to $125. coming up, peter hotels, the baylor college -- peter hotez, the baylor college of medicine dean, emmanuel want to hear from later this morning. ritika: the world health organization warns that the new omicron variant could fuel coronavirus surges with extreme consequences. the agency calls the risk extremely high. scientists said it appears to spread more easily. a number of patients have imposed travel restrictions to try to contain the transmission. -- shares rising. biontech trying to adapt its covid vaccine to handle omicron. the german biotech and pfizer tried to ensure a new version could ship within 100
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days. new steps to clampdown on people smuggling in the english channel. last week, 27 migrants died trying to reach the u.k. the european union border force will begin flights over the channel later this week. the most high-profile -- in fashion has died. lvmh's star designer has battled cancer. he was known for his influence on streetwear and sneaker culture and for his success in revitalizing louis vuitton. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> if it turns on the vaccines are perfectly effective against
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this new variant, i think the market continues to tighten from here into 2023. they will continue to bring back production, and the market is going to need it. we don't have production anywhere else. jonathan: and rita send, energy aspects -- amrita sen, energy aspects founder and director of research there. your equity market up 0.8% on the s&p. yields higher by seven basis points to 1.54 66%. euro-dollar just south of $1.13. a move in crude, a bounce back of 5% and change $71.69. here is the call from j.p. morgan and the team of the london desk in europe. "we see long-term $80 a barrel brent as the marginal cost to deliver a balanced market the on 2024. incorporating our model of true capacity, we expect to shoot to $125 in 2022, $150 in 23."
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that is a big call. tom: they really go field by field and tried to count up the spare capacity, the microeconomics of supply and demand within this, and they say opec-plus is in charge. jonathan: questioning the spare capacity that opec+ actually has. in crude, $76.14. they are looking for $125, then $150 throughout the next couple of years. tom: this is a market of 5, 10, 20 stocks, or maybe the cyclicals and the banks doing well, and everybody else having a really tough go of it. david wilson has gone back and looked at a mexico and south that harkens to 1994, 1998, and on and on crisis to crisis. it is about the latin american equity markets, and i see the colombian market, where they are down 9%, but currency adjusted, they are down 22%. dave: absolutely, and that is
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part of the mix here because we are talking about a comparison between the msci latin american index, which is indeed dollar denominated, and the s&p 500. i saw this originally in a report from michael harden at bank of america, their chief global equity strategist, and it really jumps out in terms of historical comparison. the msci latin american index starts at the end of 1987. let's put that in context. it is now at its lowest level rose into the s&p 500 since january 1988, so just a couple of weeks after the calculations began. it is down 89% from a peak in october 2010. at least it was a couple of weeks ago when the ratio said its record low, got close to it on friday, closed just above it. nonetheless, it's weakness has been going on for years and years, and there is more of it showing up this year. it isn't just colombia.
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you look at brazil, you look at mexico, they have certainly had their share of weakness. tom: does mr. harden mentioned that this is a value trap to avoid? dave: that becomes the question keep. it was more of an observation then a reservation. at what point do you get any kind of reversion to the main? that is an open question as to the mean cash to the mean -- to the mean? that is an open question at this point. kailey: latin america obviously encompasses a number of different countries. where is its biggest point of weakness? dave: there is a lot of it to be found across the markets. you look at brazil and the challenges that country has had under its president jair bolsonaro. that is certainly one of the biggest markets in latin america in terms of stocks.
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that is an area of weakness. mexico, you could argue, has oil prices doing ok. nonetheless, having its challenges as well. the sb 500 is up more than 20%. kailey: latin america is tightening quickly, trying to combat inflation. is this gap going to only get more wide once the u.s. starts tightening as well? dave: that becomes the challenge. it is more of a matter of pace of increase is down the line. at this point, what we are seeing is a number of countries in emerging markets, not just latin america, that are moving to raise rates to try and rein in price increases, so it becomes a matter of when the fed finally ratchets back on bond buying and starts raising rates. how do they move relative to the rest of the world?
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in this case, latin america? tom: greatly appreciate it this morning on latin american dynamics. it has been a huge call. to me, it is always waited back to u.s. dollar, and we have had that david blum, mark mccormick resilient dollar this year, and that doesn't farewell for em. jonathan: people think things will slow down again. you know what is going to happen? the dollar will get stronger. we can see that all over again. i am looking at this equity market now, a close of 4600. 5300 on the s&p the call from bmo. lori calvasina, 5050 on the s&p. at the low end, we are looking for 4400 over at morgan stanley. servetus subramanian has been -- savita subramanian has been less constructive. there call, 4600 for year end
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2022. just a flavor of some of the calls coming out on this benchmark going into next year. tom: to see revision not only off the president's comments this morning, but the science we see read i just did a loose extrapolation. i just eyeballed it on a monday morning. you can really do that on bloomberg radio. the extrapolation of the bottom of 2020 out to $150 a barrel on oil is late summer of 2023. that is if we keep this trend going. jonathan: to be clear, i have not seen anyone change any forecasts off the back of what is happened in the mutation to this virus over the last week. the only thing we can do is go through the incoming information , the information so far suggesting the cases and south africa have been mild-to-moderate. that is the good news so far. if we get any change to that, we will change things. for market participants, they can't wait around. we wait for the third questions
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-- for the questions later this week. kailey: we saw places like the u.k. barring flights from south africa and neighboring countries before we have those answers, so i wonder if you start to see a reversal in some of that policy response because again, there is so much that we don't know, that doesn't apply to just markets, but policymakers across the board. jonathan: so you need a pci test to go into london now, and before your second day you need another pcr tests, you should self-isolate into you get a negative result. that is what your entry into the u.k. would look like later this week. tom: i am a current on this. do you carry pcr tests with you in your luggage? jonathan: you have to preorder a pcr tests of the government knows you have already paid for one and ordered one when you land in the u.k. i am not sure you can carry it with you. i think they have to deliver it to the address you are at. at least, that is my experience of it. tom: i'm sorry, folks.
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i am amateur at this. we have got to get ready. jonathan: we are all trying to figure it out for the christmas holidays. your equity market with a lift, up 0.8%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are in a tricky situation. >> we saw a pretty dramatic shift in hedging. >> pent up demand will drive the economy forward next year. >> the fed will have to make a decision based on data that is not perfect. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. we do economics, finance investment, virology, and we will do it in this hour.

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