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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 26, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EST

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♪ >> is not the end of the world, but we have to deal with tighter financial conditions, and that means lower multiples overall. >> the fed will only go as far as the markets can handle. >> we have definitely seen signs of euphoria, signs of risk in the short-term. >> we saw a pretty dramatic shift in hedging. >> the world will be less correlated than it was and there will be a lot of divergence. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: go back to sleep. you do not want to be awake for this one. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ."
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jon and tom are off today. kailey leinz and anna edwards both with us. i am not saying go back to sleep because of the show or my cohosts, who are fabulous. i am saying it because we are dealing with a market that is assessing the risk of a never-ending pandemic. why won't it go away? kailey: when someone has the into to that question, please come here to "bloomberg surveillance" and tell us. it is were markable how things can turn on a dime. the can mike that i had slid five bets on the fed lifting off mid-2022. this morning, entirely different story. we are pushing those expect asians further out. -- those expectations further out. lisa: we are looking at oil prices falling, but then it is just one input. we are also seeing food prices increase and a whole host of other elation or pressures -- other inflationary pressures. do we greet these with lifting off? anna: indeed, what difference does this new variant make, if
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any? what difference does it make to the ecb, to the bank of england, with the ecb in mind? we're just hearing from the chief economist at the bank interest rates will need to rise in among months. that is not a new message, but the fact the bank of england is saying it again is perhaps interesting. lisa:lisa: especially when you have the give you a choke saying we have asked to give you ho has no need -- the who has no need for travel restrictions. they are trying to encourage people to use the tools that we have available, but basically saying we can't stop life. travel restrictions have not been shown to work in the past. kailey: and a lot of the places putting in restrictions actually already have confirmed cases, a lot belgium which has one confirmed case now. that came from an outside visitor to the country, but they have now halted incoming
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travel from south africa and that area, so it is really interesting to see that europe is doing this very quickly as they battle a wave of delta. it will be interesting to see of the u.s. follows suit. dr. fauci saying we will make for more information before we make a decision on that. lisa: it is so predicable, the winners and losers on a day like today. you are seeing the idea that the haven stocks are doing well. zoom communications, the stay-at-home sector is soaring, while the rest of the reopening areas are actually getting crushed. you are seeing the s&p down 1.8% . you are seeing a little bit of euro strength. 10 year yield off the earlier lows, but you are seeing 1.54% on the 10 year, down nearly 10 basis points, as much as 11 basis points earlier today, and crude catching my eye, $73.69. an oil reserve release was not enough, but perhaps the idea of travel restrictions is.
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anna:anna: and just as we were hearing from kailey, certain european countries not waiting, or not listening to the who. travel and leisure down by 6.6% today. the banking sector down by 5% in europe, if that gives you any sense of what to expect from banks stateside as we open up. energy stocks down by 4.8% as we reflect on a weaker oil price, down by more than 5% today. all sectors in europe and negative territory, even health care, and even the sector grouping that includes those stay-at-home stocks. overall, those are negative. we were just hearing some clips before we started this hour, and one of those recorded before today's announcement around the new variant, but talking about how things are going to be really uncorrelated. well, things seem to be pretty subtly correlated again. lisa: so what do you do with this? charlotte ryland is joining us now, cohead of investments at
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ccla. after deciding what you are willing to take on with respect to risk, do you actually trade or do you just take a step back and look at the potential risks percolating and run some new models? charlotte: i think it is important to not just have a knee-jerk reaction, and at this stage we don't have a great deal of detail on what this variant is. is this a mutation which means vaccinations do not work, or some of the other treatment we have in place? does this lead to greater cases, greater hospitalizations, and your for driving need -- and therefore driving much -- drive much more need for drastic government action? if it is just more vaccinations, that is considerably less of an issue for the economy. anna: a lot of the lockdown
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measures in europe went beyond just masks. we are still in a lockdown situation in austria, and there's numbers of the new soon to be german government not able to rule out a lockdown in germany. we've got tougher measures coming in belgium. arc it's really sailed through some of that, and coming off a little perhaps, but close to highs. it was this news from south africa that has really shaken markets. does that get of -- does that give a sense of things? charlotte: possibly so. i think there is clearly a correlation between places like austria, where vaccinations have been less successful, versus somewhere like spain, where vaccination rates have been very high. so i think you had one piece of news the market managed to cope with. there is certainly no evidence the u.s. is moving into a lockdown. but another piece of new slow may push some people over the edge today. but i think we need to remain reasonably calm and make sure we
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work out they have the facts, rather than reacting just to the new slow -- the new slow -- the news flow. kailey: will central banks have to move because of inflation even if the growth outlook may be deteriorating? charlotte: it is a bit of a difficult conundrum for the central banks because continuing with these rhetoric's is not actually going to help situations usually. so the bank of england have been talking very hawkish running up into their decision in october and november, and then didn't actually act. so if we continue to see these supply bottlenecks, that does
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produce a difficult situation. but the same time, if we are locked down, the demand picture begins to change. anna: as you mentioned the bank of england, i will get to some of the news coming out of the bank of england. on the subject of the labor market, because we were waiting for further information about the end of furlough, there is strong evidence of spike. then there's quite a lot of conversation here around the way that mpc comments are worked into markets. he says there a danger that guidance is interpreted as commitment, and i suppose we have to remember the conditionality of all of the statements we get from central bankers now. charlotte:charlotte: if you look back through the market reaction of what has been priced into bond markets, they didn't to react far more in terms of actual actions. things like consumer confidence in the u.k. has not been
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particularly strong, and maybe that is due to things like a petrol shortage, worries about supplies running into christmas, and terms of business sentiment, that is somewhat mixed. you can see why the bank of england has a degree of caution. there was this wait for the furlough and the impact of about one million people coming into the workforce, whether they would actually be observed -- be absorbed into the bond market. lisa: charlotte ryland of ccla investment management, thank you so much. i am shocked when i go through the price action of what is the bigger risk to markets. the idea of material slow down in the wake of another covid spread, or complete acceleration and we get an inflationary surge? i am struck by the binary nature of both of these outcomes, and the frankly significant risk to markets with either. anna: absolutely, and i am struck by how much we are going to rely on data from biontech,
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pfizer, and who in two weeks because it could be around that time horizon, december 10 or something, where we might have more information because at the moment, we don't really have the facts available, and in the absence of facts, markets reacted, investors react, and ask questions later. we seem to have some evidence that it is fairly transmittable, but we are told by colleagues that we need to wait for more detail there, and about the severity. lisa: the other thing striking me as i looked through all of the news headlines and the stories is the idea that we knew about this variant on wednesday. we knew about this variant earlier. what does it take to trigger the psyche of markets when we have a sense that cases are surging in the united states and there is a lower vaccination rate in germany? when did that reach the public consciousness and actually affect were things trade? kailey: it is an interesting
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question for markets, and anna has brought this up a few times today. in european equities, they have largely through austria returning to lockdown, more restrictive measures, but today they do so. i wonder if that is a question of liquidity, given that it is the day after the thanksgiving holiday in the u.s., but we have seen a dramatic repricing and faye rate hike expectations -- repricing in fed rate hike expectations. lisa: it also highlights the uncertainty and how quick people are to reassess a backdrop that is incredibly quickly moving, something we have never really seen in our modern lifetimes. still, we are seeing a risk off feel, and crude deteriorating further, $72.98. from new york and london, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: a new variant of covid-19 is stoking fear in government and markets worldwide
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and uncertainty abounds about how far the mutation may have already spread. the variant was first edified in south africa. the private enterprises commissioner spoke with bloomberg television today. >> i am sure that in the next 10 days or so, after a bit more work and more discoveries elsewhere in the world about whether this particular variant has been seen other than in hong kong, botswana and south africa, so i suppose there will be a period of uncertainty which is being reflected in the markets at the moment. ritika: the world health organization's meeting in geneva to determine just how dangerous this new variant may be. it is crunch time for u.s. retailers as masses of shoppers returned to in person shopping for black friday, but the new coronavirus variant is adding to a long list of concerns facing the retail industry, and analysts say deals are shaping up to be underwhelming. discounts on sporting goods and appliances will be lower than
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last year amid inventories and rising inflation. iran says the nuclear deal can be revived quickly if all parties return and all sanctions are removed. they say it needs guarantees that the united states owned exit the agreement again. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the rhetoric you saw from chairman powell and vice chair brainard portends a new year for
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the fed. i think the question the fed is now managing is not do we have an overheating problem, can we bet with team transitory. lisa: that was a different time, when we were still worried about inflation. today we are worried about lockdowns and the additional surge in covid variance that we are seeing right now and south africa, with one variant in particular catching some concern. the issue right now is how much is this really going to affect policy, how much is this going to affect and move the needle over a longer time when people are back in their seats and not still with her thanksgiving hangovers. joining us now is greg valliere, chief u.s. policy analyst at agf investments. just give us the idea of how you manage something that could be concerning, encouraging people to get vaccinated, and for the threat that is significant, while also saying to people don't be alarmed, we continue to
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recover and emerge from this pandemic. greg: it is tricky. obviously this is a wildcard. i would just inherently be a little bit cautious about a wild card like this on a thinly traded day. our markets will close i think at 1:00, and this i think could be an overreaction. that said, it could be a game changer. we will have to see over the weekend what dr. fauci says on the talks those, scott gottlieb. right now, it does look like it could change some policies. i think it mix a little more leslie that we will get more stimulus, that we will get it eventually something on social spending. we have to get the debt ceiling done. we have to keep the government open. that expires on december 3.
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i think the need to do all of these things become the low more urgent if this new variant is a really serious story. kailey: that is a fairly long list considering congress only has two weeks left before they are scheduled to be in session for the new year. what is priority number one? greg: i think the debt ceiling, they've got to do that. i assume we will get the government staying open on december 3. we will resort to an old washington tradition. kick the can down the road. kailey: that's what we did last time. greg: of course. i think we will probably have to wait into after new year's for a final deal on the budget, maybe even for a final deal on the debt ceiling, but i do think the sense of let's get something done as increased over the last 24 hours. kailey: does that give the president a little more of a tailwind he returns from his thanksgiving holiday? greg: it does.
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i think it makes his argument a little more credible. but we just talked about at the beginning, this is a tough one to message because the message over the last few weeks was the u.s. economy is in great shape. we got to worry about inflation. the fed may have to speed up its tapering. now i think all of those things are a little less certain. anna: we were worrying about inflation, and the president was worrying about oil prices. maybe that changes a little bit. is that one political battle that maybe he doesn't need to fight so much now, that whole confrontation with opec and opec-plus at the beginning of the week from the united states, but other consumer nations as well? is that on the back burner now politically? greg: i think it does change the dynamics to a certain extent. it will be interesting to see what happens to energy prices. they were slipping already in the last week or so.
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oil had gone down by quite a bit. i think now the scenario that we've got a red-hot economy is somewhat brought into question if this variant is as serious as some people think. i'm not convinced, though. i would reiterate, i want to wait until we see the weekend talk shows, and we get into early next week before concluding this is a genuine game changer. anna: we have heard from some voices suggesting it will be a couple of weeks until we get some answers around how quickly this spreads and how vaccines stand up to it. politically, that will be the important thing to know, how much the vaccine rollout will protect the u.s. population if and when we see this variant on u.s. soil. greg: yes, i think so. you also have to say a key player on so many issues is jerome powell. you have to wonder why he would want to take this job again for another term. it is so difficult. it has so many variables that
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creep out of nowhere. but he think the scenario now that the fed has got to taper right away, that the fed will be raising rates by june or july, i think that scenario is a little less likely this morning. lisa: how much political capital to president biden lose by announcing and and out -- announcing a release of the strategic oil reserve just before we got new fears of a new variant that ended up driving prices down much more anyway? greg: good point. he didn't know, of course. i don't think he loses a lot of political capital on this. he lost a lot of political capital in the late summer after afghanistan. he still has some major issues. i talked to a lot of democrats who are convinced the house will slip back to the republicans. joe biden has a lot of work to do if he wants to keep the house. lisa: thank you so much. we will get a read on policy when it comes to how much this does push forward the democratic
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agenda. we will also be sticking with amrita sen, founder and director of research at energy aspects come on some of the travel curves that could trickle into the crude market. right now we are seeing crude down about 6% on nymex. the idea here, people looking at less travel, less activity. we are seeing oil now down 5.7%. we are seeing a similar move in brent. really, what is catching my eye is the bond market, the retracement of rate hikes. i do wonder, the binary nature of how trades are happening. right now in china, for example, you are seeing a huge slowdown. how much does this trickle into all of the in points, defending on the zeitgeist of the morning? anna: we will certainly and i on how china on. if we do see a new variant, how does that rub up against our
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western vaccines and the ground in china? also watching the swiss franc. the haven safety of that currency putting it at a six year with no sign of s&p response. that is one of the signs we are looking at in your -- in europe. lisa: i walked in this morning and kailey leinz said, what about bitcoin? [laughter] kailey: i would just note that other assets are very positive, you're seeing that show up today. it is a decidedly negative day for bitcoin. bitcoin is down about 7.8%. it is 20% off of its record high that we reached just a few weeks ago. i know you care a lot about the bond market and we are watching oil, but this one is for tom keene, who is definitely watching. lisa: i will give you this. back in march 2020, we actually saw bitcoin gaining. we saw it acting as a haven in a
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certain way, and we are not seeing that in any way, and we haven't any while. we are speaking about oil with amrita sen coming up. lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz, anna edwards over in london. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪
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lisa: this is "bloomberg surveillance. tom keene and jonathan ferro off, kailey leinz and anna edwards in. we are looking get the markets facing the potential of another pandemic wave. the s&p down 1.7%. the stoxx 600 down almost twice as much as we have had some curves on travel in the european region come also assessing when the fed will hike rates with that pushed back significantly. the 10 year yield down to 1.53%, the two year yield down to almost .5% after being as high as almost .7% earlier in the past few months. crude is getting your attention,
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down 5.7%. how much to travel curbs change the backdrop? amrita sen joining us now. happy thanksgiving. thank you for being with us. what is your chance of how much of a game changer the entrant of the south african variant could be? amrita: happy thanksgiving to all of you. i think this is a huge overreaction in terms of the market. the market is fearing the worst. the calculations we have done so far with all of the borders closed globally, we're just talking about 15 barrels a day of lost fuel. europe could come up with the baker blanket ban for travel to south africa. even then you're talking about 10,000 to 20,000 barrels of jet fuel demand. the big routes remain open, that is the biggest driver for a lot of that jet travel.
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asia, we have not seen that start of between long-haul flights between asia and other parts of the world. that will not be affected to begin with. this is the market price me in the worst possible scenario. lisa: where should oil be if this is a blip and this is comparable? amrita: of course there are lots of ifs, but if it turns out the vaccines are perfectly effective against this new variant, prices should give up $80. we have had 55 billion barrels of global as pr outside of china and prices row like two dollars. compare that to 2011 when libya announced 60 million barrels and prices went down. it tells you how how prices are and how low stocks are. if these concerns persist it is likely the group will continue
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pausing output increases. that puts a floor on prices. fundamentally we should be above $80 if demand takes a hit. anna: expanding on that, the market moves we are seeing in the risk to oil demand demonstrated by the threat of this virus variant, that plays into the opec argument that there are risks of oversupply in some parts of 2022, doesn't it? amrita: absolutely. this is why opec-plus has been cautious, this is why opec-plus has been only using production by 400,000 barrels per day, even though the white house and others have been calling for a bigger increase in production. they have been talking about the winter, there could be potential mobility restrictions. you have had the spr release
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which balloons the q1 stock to 3 million barrels per day. this is why opec-plus has been cautious. i think today's move justifies their actions so far and does call into question why the white house and other consumers release spr in a season which is bound to have uncertainties around demand. anna: as we are thinking about things could influence demand, i want to draw your line -- draw your attention to the ecb line saying the eurozone economy has lots of dynamism. is there any sense demand disruption has been taking place above $80 a barrel? amrita: i would say for europe it is the higher gas prices more than oil prices that have had a big impact on industry. you have seen industrial demand cut back.
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that is where some of the comments are coming from. the biggest risk to the year is going to be around the supply chain issues and high energy rises in terms of the downside risk. we still think in terms of gdp growth asmara 2023 story, but you cannot ignore the fact those are your bottlenecks going on right now. there's so much demand across the world. asia is just opening up. there's a lot more upside demand as long as this variant does not prove to be you cannot use the existing vaccine against it. that is a different story. otherwise demand has more upside. kailey: something that gets lost amidst all of this talk is they are still talking about an iranian nuclear deal and iran is attending a meeting in vienna we understand from a phone call they had that they say a quick return is possible if sanctions are lifted.
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if that happens, what is the impact of that crude coming back onto the market? amrita: it is a big if, if you will get a big pullback. it could be $10 or $15 lower. i will stress iran has been dragging its feet for a long time at this is no. we do not think you will get a quick resolution. we do not think iranian barrels come back in 2022. the reason it would be a big drop is because iran has 60 or 70 million barrels of oil sitting in tankers and that could come to the market quickly. i could see crude in the 60's. this is not an iran ready to do a deal overnight. there'll be a lot of headlines
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into year end around this, but the demand they have are difficult for europe or the u.s. to meet. kailey: it is funny you said that because my next question was going to be does it matter if opec-plus can counteract that. if that is going to be permanently true in the oil market that the only factor that matters is the policy of opec-plus? amrita: it is great you ask the question because of and analysts have said opec-plus does not matter anymore and they've ruled out their importance in the market. i think you're exactly right. opec-plus, particularly the alliance between saudi arabia and russia has stabilize the market. that alliance is going to continue. of course it only goes on until the end of next year, but there will be cooperation and some form of market management, depending on the situation. i think the market continues to tighten from here into 2023.
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they will continue to bring back production in the market will need it. there will be cooperation between these countries for the foreseeable future. lisa: we are with amrita sen of energy aspects. you said you think this is a huge overreaction to what we heard out of south africa. how much of a buying opportunity is this, especially considering the fact that people do shift their minds on policy reaction, look at europe, the united states, asia, they want to see the price goes lower. amrita: this is great. from a policymaker point of view this is what they hoped for after the spr but they got it because of the variant. they still got what they wanted. the fact that it is thanksgiving and liquidity is low is exacerbating the price move. in a normal trading environment we would not have gone down as much because there would be some bias.
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right now it is fear that is driving prices but i would not get in the way, it is like catching a falling knife. once we get more clarity around this variant and it is not just speculation, that is when it becomes a buying opportunity. that could be early next week or maybe even mid next week. you do need that clarity first. lisa: amrita sen, thank you so much. we are also seeing the credit markets roiled just a bit. i am watching in europe the credit default index search to the most since last year. you're seeing a similar move in the united states with indexes trading at their highest levels going back to november of last year. the significance of this is people are pricey and more credit risks for the first time in months. how much does this ride with the russell 2000, with the small caps, with the idea all the sudden there is a risk of a slowdown that is not priced in
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that could be perilous to certain corporations? anna: than the support available from fiscal authorities and monetary ones they say involve markets they were planning to leave to try to provide a cushion in those markets. we are seeing reaction in credit markets. many would remark we have not seen the levels of bankruptcy you might expect to see in any kind of typical risk action. this has not been any typical recession. that leaves us in a strange place for credit markets as we try to factor in another leg to this story. lisa: the idea that policy risk is really the main list -- really the main risk. how much volatility can you see? the highlight the bifurcated nature of this market, the risk factor is not only the idea of a slow down, but also thinks accelerating so much the fed and the other policymakers pullback. kailey: the conversation we were having on wednesday was economic news was confirming the idea the fed would be more hawkish that
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could be bad news for the equity market, today it is just bad news being bad news for the equity market. what if inflationary pressures made tightening has to, even if you see growth accelerating because of the persistence of this never ending pandemic. lisa: what we all feel right now. coming up, we will continue the conversation. in markets, we are seeing the soggy tone perpetuate into the market open. a 1.7% decline on the s&p. fruit -- crude is steady, down 5.4% as we adjust to the future -- as we reassess the future of post-covid travel. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: global health officials
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are holding a special meeting in geneva to discuss a new coronavirus variant first identified on november 11. the world health organization spoke to the gathering. >> it will take a few weeks for us to understand what impact this variant has. researchers are working to understand more about the new tatian's -- about the mutations and what it means for how transmissible or purulent this -- or vera lent -- or virulent this variant is and how it may impact vaccines. ritika: several airlines are stopping flights from southern africa on news of the potentially more transmissible covid. . oil is following as the new covid strain raises questions about demand ahead of the key opec-plus meeting. the group has been under
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pressure from the u.s. and other nations to tap strategic stockpiles to contain the energy prices. blackrock is offering to reinforce -- to reimburse some employees to help offset the cost of hotel quarantines days. jp morgan and morgan stanley are taking similar steps in hong kong. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it has a number of mutations which are predicted to evade antibody responses.
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it has a few that are conserved, so this will not be something that is completely able to evade vaccine-induced immunity, but it has more variants and we have seen so far, which on paper is what is concerning to us. kailey: dr. andrew pekosz speaking to us earlier. anna edwards and kailey leinz in for tom and jonathan today taking a long weekend after the thanksgiving holiday. this is not the black friday we imagined. the market digesting news of a new covid 19 variant first founded south africa that appears to have many more mutations than the first virus. the market is not taking this well this morning. there is a lot of fear. how worried as news of this variant make you? >> is obviously a matter of concern.
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it is not something the day after thanksgiving i am thankful for. this is a new variant that has cropped up in south africa it is starting to spread around johannesburg. the major questions the investigators are looking at does it spread as rapidly or even more rapidly than delta and could it make more severe disease if you do become infected, and number three, kennett evade the protection and if so, how much, that we currently get from our vaccines. kailey: the who and biontech does partnered with pfizer to make one of those vaccines has said it will take more time to study it and then we should have more information. we are seeing countries like the u.k. cutting off flights from south africa. is that the right approach? dr. schaffner: they are certainly coming in fast and hard. this is a matter of enhanced
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concern. we learned from delta. delta started in india and now it is the dominant strain throughout the world. these are countries that are quickly trying to prevent the spread of this new variant, perhaps we will call it mu that will move around the world. there is already been one transmission from a traveler to hong kong. anna: and we found out this morning it is already in israel and belgium. good morning to you from london. it seems to spread a little already and we are seeing the travel bans. you talked about the severity of the disease and that could be one of the missing parts of the puzzle. when we see other variants emerge, have they varied in their intensity in terms of how severe the disease is? dr. schaffner: that is still a matter of some debate.
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there are data on both sides of the question regarding delta. by and large, most of the variants we have seen have caused a comparable level of severity, affecting older people , people with underlying illnesses, and who are immuno compromised more severely, children and young adults less severely. that is been a standard pattern. we have to see what happens with this new variant. anna: it is interesting that the variants have not produced much difference. kailey, can you tell us your experience of the vaccination of under 11's in the united states? europe has just introduced the product -- israel encouraging people to vaccinate people in those age groups. what has the u.s. experienced in vaccinating those age groups? dr. schaffner: from five to 11 it has started rather slowly.
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we only have about 10% of the children in the united states currently vaccinated in that age group. parents, mothers in particular, still have caution, and emerging them to speak to their pediatricians and family doctors who they know and trust they can get good advice from them. kailey: the fact of the matter remains there is still a large swath of this country and frankly it remains the case in countries in europe and a lot of the developing world, that there are a large number of unvaccinated people. i would imagine a certain portion of those are not going to get vaccinated. how could we break this cycle of new variants emerging, the virus being around -- being allowed to mutate, as long as that remains true? dr. schaffner: we have to change that equation. we have to do more in the developed world to get vaccines to the developing world and get people vaccinated. all of the variants we have been concerned about have originated
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outside of the united states. for both humanitarian reasons and reasons of self interest, the suppression of variants, we in the united states and other developed countries need to be concerned about what is happening in the developing world. anna: are you concerned about areas of the united states come in before we talk about this variant we were talking about delta through europe and to some extent in the u.s. as well. are you concerned about icus being overwhelmed in any parts of north america as we head through the winter? dr. schaffner: before we talked about the new variant i was concerned we would see local surges of infection due to the fact there are still many people who are unvaccinated, 60 million adults alone in the united states are unvaccinated. people are getting together for the holidays as they have over thanksgiving.
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when that happens they take off their masks and there are wonderful reunions, hugging and kissing, what the virus will be in some of those reunions and spread. kailey: dr. william schaffner, happy holidays to you and yours even if this is not the happiest day after thanksgiving. the question remains as we think about this new variant and the implications not just for government policy but monetary policy. how to government policymakers react? what are the implications for what central banks to? we are hearing from the boe chief economist who says a new lockdown would change the view of the recovery. anna: this conversation he is having today, it might be reflecting on the new news about the new variant first identified in south africa. the comments could also be attached to the delta wave across europe. for many complex reasons it
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seems the u.k. is a different stage of the pandemic and has a different response function from its governments. at the moment there is no talk about locking down in the u.k. but there is talk about whether lockdowns will spread in other parts of europe. will they do something similar in germany? we know they are nervous about the unvaccinated levels. in belgium we had those lines a few hours ago about the belgian health care system crumbling. worth reflecting on the state of the european fight against covid even before we add in the complications of a new variant. kailey: belgium putting more restrictions in place, nightclubs and bars having to close by 11:00 p.m. the flight restrictions are in place and we are seeing the european equity sessions. the travel and leisure index now about 7% in the european session and we are approaching the u.s. open and it does look like it will be a deeply red run. the s&p 500 futures down 1.2% as
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we are seeing a safe haven bid into the bond market. the 10 year yield down 10 basis points. will be talking more about the locations of all of this and what it means for monetary policy later on wall street week with former u.s. treasuries very tech -- former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers. this is bloomberg. ♪
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lisa: from new york city to our audience around the world. 30 minutes until the start of trading. it is a different day. severely risk off in the face of
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new covid headlines. the s&p down 1.7%. the russell 2000 down more than 3% ahead of the open. i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: let's begin with the big issue. covid returning to the forefront. >> entering a bit of a risk off day. >> unwelcome news. >> could not have come in a worse time. >> the back of thanksgiving. >> it make sense for investors to take risk off the table. >>

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