Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  November 25, 2021 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

5:00 pm
>> welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." i'm paul allen in sydney. >> we are counting down to asia's major market open. global stocks rise as signs of a stalled recovery in the u.s., jitters over inflation. goldman protects the fed will speed up its taper timeline due to price pressures. paul: we talked to the rbnz's
5:01 pm
assistant governor for the timeline on more aggressive policy tightening. yvonne: the u.k. revises its travel red list amid concerns of the new governor ivey is variant -- new coronavirus variant in the region. happy thanksgiving. we hope you're getting your turkey in. that is why we have a quiet mood in the markets as we count down to the open in asia. perhaps that is why we are seeing people heading to the shops or online for cyber monday or black friday. you look at the numbers and it is quite remarkable. adobe predicting when it comes to u.s. online holiday sales this year, it will total $189 billion. shattering all previous records. that is equal to two year's growth in one season. does inflation have to do with this?
5:02 pm
you pair that with the data we got out of this week from the u.s. with personal consumption, you can see consumers are overlooking the sticker shocker prices. paul: inflation very much on the mind of goldman sachs, forecasting the fed will be tightening monetary policy faster than expected and speeding up the assets purchasing program as well to the tune of $30 billion per month. that would ramp up the program in march and a first rate rise for june, followed by two more and another two for 2023. goldman getting more aggressive in its outlook for fed tightening. yvonne: and they are saying there is that real possibility that they might hike, that they may as well. it is interesting to see what the markets have priced and, whether it is the fomc minutes.
5:03 pm
you hear from some fed presidents, the dove that has turned more hawkish saying a taper could happen. you have at least 45 hikes before 2024 being priced into this market. -- four or five hikes before 2024 being priced into this market. there is talk that china could be the upper former when it comes to -- the outperformer when it comes to e.m. china could top as the keystone margaret -- the key stock market in 2022 given the underperformance we have seen in china. people are saying it is time for a catch-up. let's talk more about the virus situation. the u.k. has added six applicant countries to a travel red list amid worries about its dramatically different covid-19 variant recently identified. let's get details from our editor.
5:04 pm
talk us through this new variant, how concerning is it, and is this the next delta? >> sure, thanks. it is important to say first that this is very new. this strain was only identified two days ago. i does not even have one of the greek names yet like delta, alpha. the concern is -- the concerns are two. it is unlike other variants they have seen because there is lots of different mutations. the second concern which is much bigger is does that add up to something that could evade the protection offered by a vaccine? at the moment, there have only been about 100 cases that have been fully sequenced in south africa and botswana.
5:05 pm
cases have been shooting up, so the theory is this is a highly contagious -- unclear if it is any more dangerous, this is very new, but contagious apparently. lots of different mutations. worry that in the worst case scenario vaccines won't work against it. paul: this comes off the back of disturbing news out of europe as well, battling a fourth wave. what more do we know there? ian: this has been going on for some weeks now. more and more restrictions are going into effect. the check government -- czech government declared an emergency today. germany crossed over 100,000 cases. they are considering new restrictions.
5:06 pm
the u.k. is not doing so well. france is back over 30,000 cases a day, which is what we saw at the height of the last surge. it's quite bad there right now. deaths -- germany in particular, which has a reasonably good vaccination rate, are going up. the pope would have been that if you were vaccinated enough -- the hope would be that if you had enough vaccinations, you would break that chain between actually getting infected and serious illness and death. that does not appear to be totally the case, although it also must be said that if we did not have vaccination things would be much worse. yvonne: thanks so much for joining us. happy thanksgiving. let's talk more about earnings as well. the regulatory overhang, covert
5:07 pm
outbreaks and a slowing chinese economy are all likely to contribute to the losses to china's biggest tech companies. let's get a look at meituan. stephen engle is with me in hong kong. how are meituan navigating through these issues? stephen: between february peak, they had their peaks in february and went to ski slopes downward. they rallied 42% since then. there has been this growing optimism that perhaps the regulatory scrutiny -- alibaba has been issued a fine -- now we can move on. it has not been the case for alibaba. after their quarterly results, the stock has been plummeting again. tencent under the regulatory hammer again. meituan, they are not out of the woods. they got the $532 million u.s.
5:08 pm
fine. they got another fine for unfair competitive practices. meituan, like all these tech platforms under this regulatory environment, at various bushes by the central government, has been investing in new areas. their operating margins has been squeezed by bad weather and covid outbreaks. yes, they were found to have abused their market dominance. they used special algorithms, special practices to get merchants to work exclusively with them, much like the antitrust action against alibaba. net loss expected to have widened because they are investing in other areas and the margins are squeezing to 7 billion yuan. revenue up expected 37%.
5:09 pm
paul: let's talk about pinduoduo . how has president xi's prosperity push impacted things there? stephen: this is perhaps a strategic direction from the government for pinduoduo to invest more in agricultural technology and to help support and modernize farming in china. that is going to weigh a number of -- to weigh on earnings through 2022. at the same time, they have been adding more users at a breakneck pace. bloomberg intelligence saying they are likely to see 24% year over year gains in active buyers. pinduoduo has surpassed alibaba with the number of annual active buyers on its e-commerce platform. it is gaining users, but also
5:10 pm
seeing rising costs. what is expected, those numbers could result in losses through 2022 and wider losses in this current third quarter. we will have to see when the results are posted before the market opens in the abbreviated session friday in the united states. paul: stephen engle in hong kong. let's see how asian markets are shaping up for the final day of trading for the week. new zealand the only market open right now, currently weaker by more than .25%. we have futures in australia looking kind of flat as well. later on, we will have retail sales for the month of october out for trillion. we also have the news that mask mandates in the state of new south wales are going to be gone from mid-december. look at nikkei futures, pointing
5:11 pm
higher by 1/10 of 1%. later we will have cpi numbers for tokyo for november. kospi futures looking a little weak, off 0.7%. paul: yvonne: dollar-yen trading around 115. we saw a dollar rally. let's get to the first word headlines. china has slammed a u.s. decision to sanction several firms, saying the move violates an understanding formed by president xi and biden last week. companies were added to the u.s. commerce department's list over national security and foreign policy concerns. china says the move hurts both countries and the global supply chain. china's foreign ministry warned germany's incoming coalition not to meddle in its internal affairs, to respect the so-called one china policy when it comes to taiwan. a chancellor in germany unveiled
5:12 pm
an agenda that includes surprisingly strong language on china over human rights, and its grip on hong kong. australia sending troops to help curb violent protests linked to the solomon island's diplomatic change. local reports say a 36 hour curfew has been imposed around the city's chinatown. britain and france swapped reclamation's over the death of 27 migrants after their boat capsized in the english channel. prime minister boris johnson accused france of not doing enough to stop migrants to get to the u.k. from northern france. in reply, the french interior says britain has used workers as an incentive to migrants. those are your first word headlines. paul: next, new zealand leading
5:13 pm
the charge with global stimulus withdrawal. we talk to the rbnz assistant governor about the timeline for more aggressive policy tightening. this is bloomberg. ♪
5:14 pm
5:15 pm
paul: new zealand's central bank raised interest rates for the second time in two months. the rbnz signaled it may need to tighten policy to contain inflation. let's bring in our economic and politics editor kathleen hays. kathleen: he is joining us in hi s role as assistant governor of the rbnz. thanks for joining us today.
5:16 pm
we have a message that the rbnz sent this week, cautious moves, 25 basis point rate hikes in the official cash rate. up to an expected 2% by the end of 2022. how did you select 2%? christian: our productions have the cash rate getting up a little over 2.5% at the end of our projection period. for us, it is a story of where we think we need to be to achieve our policy mandates. the reality is in new zealand we had a resilient economy. we have core inflation running near the top of our 1% to 3% target range. we have an unemployment market through what we think is maximum sustainable unemployment. we have signals that we need to start this process of getting interest rates back up toward neutral.
5:17 pm
kathleen: how will you know if you are jeopardizing jobs growth and moving too quickly, or moving too slowly and risking inflation becoming more persistent and getting out of control? christian: it is a great question. it is the balancing act that i think all central banks have to go through. we really look at the balance of risks to the outlook. at the moment, we see them finely balanced. on the upside, the risks are that we had a very strong economy. inflation expectations lift. we can see that calm happening in the near term. on the near side, interest rates have moved a long way here in new zealand. mortgage rates are nearly 2% up from their lowest in january.
5:18 pm
we have to be navigating having covid in our community, which is a very different strategy than we experienced over the last 18 months. we would see things evenly balanced. kathleen: what would tell you that you have to be more aggressive, that the balance of risk have shifted? at the press conference with you and the rest of the team, it was pretty clear that there was a concern that the balance of risk could shift. christian: yeah, that's right. we have the benefit that we meet again and can decide if we want -- where we want to take the cash rate from here. to the upside risks, it comes back to inflation pressures. we have a very tight labor market at the moment.
5:19 pm
we have core inflation heating up toward the top end of our target range. inflation expectations will be key for us. at the moment, what we would expect five to 10 year expectations are near our target. short-term inflation expectations have lifted, but lifted in a way that we would anticipate. i think that is a really key thing to watch for, that development through time. paul: as a fellow kiwi, i remember the days in the early 1990's in new zealand where inflation ran extremely hot. are you concerned you could get into that situation? do you have the tools to stop it from happening? christian: we are in a different environment, you are right. over the last 10 years or so,
5:20 pm
the challenge for central banks around the world has been trying to lift inflation from below. it has felt like quite a foreign environment to be in over the last 10 years. now, in the period ahead of us, and new zealand is probably at the forefront of this, is making sure inflation comes back to the midpoint of our target from above, with inflation running above the midpoint. we think we've got the tools that we need. the benefit when inflation is low that you end up having to use these alternative tools as room runs out on interest rates. now we are back to using our traditional cash rate. we can keep lifting that as far as we need to to get confidence that we do have things under control. yvonne: it's yvonne in hong kong. i hear some central banks
5:21 pm
talking about inflation, it's just transitory, that we might see the supply chain bottlenecks ease early next year, that perhaps there is not a need to frontload these rate hikes. what do you say to that? what makes you so convinced that inflation is not transitory? christian: you really have to look at the different elements of inflation and where the inflation is coming through in the economy. certainly there are a lot of funnels happening at the moment. particularly the supply side disruptions, the supply chain disruptions that are causing these
5:22 pm
these are more prolonged than we had originally anticipated. we see those dissipating through time. our inflation forecast domestically is for inflation to lift from a little under 5% to under 6%, then come down in the second half of next year. it is what global central banks are talking about. we set inflation pressures building as well. we see that in our nontradables inflation here locally. it is those domestic inflation pressures that we feel we need to lean against. we are in a different position from the rest of the world because we started covid at a different starting point. we had a strong economy going into covid. we are now sort of moving out of covid with a strong economy as well. kathleen: looking at some of the global forces, the federal reserve has made it clear they are starting their taper. now signals are they may be in favor of speeding up the taper. on that realization, we've seen
5:23 pm
the dollar strengthened. possibly one of the reasons the kiwi has weakened recently. u.s. bond yields are rising. as that continues, a more hawkish fed, maybe they speed up their rate hikes. could it impact the exchange rate, bond yields, could influence the policy steps you do or don't take? christian: absolutely. that is the environment we need to navigate each time we get together to make our decisions about interest rates. absolutely, the global environment takes us through a number of channels, whether it is the trade channel, financial channel, or uncertainty confidence channel. whatever the fed does with global yields, the liquidity of
5:24 pm
global markets, so you could see our monetary conditions tightening through those channels. equally there will be impacts on the exchange rate as well. we need to feed those through each time we get together and do what is right for the new zealand economy with a laser focus on what our mandate is. kathleen: you said at the meeting that you will be looking at your plan to manage down the emergency bond purchases. at this point, do you have any sense of the optimal size of your bond holdings as you get through that process? again, how significant of a part of your policy strategy is this? christian: we haven't got to the point of devising the optimal
5:25 pm
balance sheet size. that will be something we work through. we do know we need to start gradually reducing the size of our balance sheet from where it is. we halted our large-scale asset purchase program in july. we completed that taper process and have our balance sheet now constant at the moment. we are looking to gradually reduce the size. it is part of a broad process of removing stimulus. we will do it in a way that supports the smooth functioning of markets and the practical decisions for us are about reinvestment of maturing bonds and eventually questions about whether we sell down assets. the key thing for us is we want the main focus to be on what we are doing with the official cash rate. we think that is what will have the biggest impact on monetary
5:26 pm
conditions for new zealand. kathleen: if inflation expectations keep rising, it seems to me that in announcing this recent rate hike you put a lot of emphasis on that. inflation expectations rising, if that persists, is that something that could cause you to hike rates more aggressively this year, to speed up the process? christian: it's absolutely one of the risks that we see when we look at what would make us go faster, what would make us go slower. we are in a position where we feel like we can take considered steps for now. that has been consistent with the 25 basis point move made in october and now in november. there are things that could make us slow down and pause for a while, gigolo lee the impact on the tightening of monetary
5:27 pm
conditions. there are things --- particularly the impact on the tightening of monetary conditions. inflation expectations is one channel we may need to go faster. we gave ourselves that optionality. we revisit that in the future. kathleen: thank you so much, rbnz assistant governor christian hawkesby. the next time we talk to you, you will be the deputy governor of the reserve bank of new zealand. thanks for talking to us today. christian: thanks very much. kathleen: nice conversation we just had. paul: very good. some interesting insights from mr. hawkesby, particularly how inflation will be managed by the rbnz. let's look at the day ahead for australia and new zealand. we had anz consumer confidence falling to 96.6 from 98 in
5:28 pm
october. australia's october retail sales growth picking up according to an estimate in a bloomberg survey. australia reporting blackstone renewing its push for crown resorts. plenty more ahead. this is
5:29 pm
5:30 pm
paul: the australian state of new south wales is reportedly planning to abandon masks, qr codes and vaccination certificates in some settings ahead of christmas. let's get the details from our managing editor. what are the new rules? emma: when they reach 95% double backs or the middle of december, a whole bunch of restrictions and curbs will be eased. you no longer need to use
5:31 pm
vaccination passports to get into places like cafes and pubs. there won't be restrictions in terms of numbers of people except in situations like big music festivals and other large capacity venues. there won't be any school closures, which is an interesting one given they have not started vaccinating children in australia under the age of 12. yvonne: that is from new south wales. i am looking at the latest headlines from victoria today, recording new covid cases in the past hours. what is the situation like for the rest of the country? is there a risk of easing these restrictions too soon? emma: i think you hit the nail on the head there. there is quite a lot of diversions in australia between what the different states are doing. new south wales is much further ahead than others in looking at this post-covid future, as they
5:32 pm
refer to it. victoria is seeing a significant spike. it does not plan to ease yet. new south wales has seen a pretty good period with not so many cases. they have come down from their peak, but it remains to be seen whether this easing does fuel over the coming months another uptick and how they respond. yvonne: emma o'brien, our managing editor in sydney with the latest on new south wales. good news for our folks there when it comes to wearing masks no longer. let's talk about germany. it is warned a low rate of business failures during the pandemic should not be seen as a guide for future risks. we asked the central bank vice president about its latest financial stability review. >> typically in all of our forecasts, there is a strong temporary component. nobody knows how long that the temporary effect will be and
5:33 pm
what is the long-term evolution of inflation. there are certainly higher upside risks. that is something monetary policy has to take care of. what we are saying is monetary policy needs to act, but also we have to make sure the financial sector can deal with future contingencies. one of the things is higher interest rates. if this increase in interest rates comes gradually, i think that is something the financial sector can deal with. if the increase in interest rates comes more abruptly, we have weakness in several parts of the financial sector. that potential abrupt increase in interest rates could also be a marked increase. risk premium can change. this is something we are aware of and making sure everybody manages interest-rate risk very
5:34 pm
well. >> i imagine that is so hard because there is this huge debate as to whether this is a one-off or this is permanent. not getting too much into the politics, but from a policy perspective, how are you able to prepare yourself for both scenarios? claudia: it is hard for everybody to accept probabilities to either scenario. if you can't exactly attach probabilities, you have a lot of uncertainty. from a regulatory perspective, from a financial stability perspective, what are the measures to take if you have uncertainty? you need higher buffers to absorb potential losses. this is why we are saying this is the time to take precautionary measures to increase the counter cyclical capital buffer that can fluctuate over the cycle. that is the measure you have to take to protect the financial
5:35 pm
system against whatever the future contingencies will be. claudia: >> we are here at the german central bank. the vice president is going to leave. there is speculation who could be -- your name has even be floated. what message do you want to send to the central bank, even if names change, to guarantee the solid nature of the institution? claudia: i don't comment on those decisions. what is really important is we have a very stability oriented culture. the german bank has to make sure prices are tapered. we have a very important mandate when it comes to financial stability. financial stability is the backbone for price stability and all the other policies to work
5:36 pm
as intended. >> this is always the image the central bank of germany related, the number one focus is inflation. this is your core mission. this is where all the efforts go. claudia: take the example of climate policy. for all the climate policies to work, we need stable prices. in the end, what these prices try to change, to steer the economy to a greener production of goods and services, for that to happen we need stable prices. it is even more important in these days. >> whoever gets it, that is still very much the message of the german central bank. claudia: yeah, absolutely. paul: the bundesbank vice president speaking with bloomberg. up next, we hear from aco about
5:37 pm
how the italian power company -- from a ceo about how the italian power company is looking for midsized opportunistic deals. this is bloomberg. ♪
5:38 pm
paul: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." a check of the first word headlines. the u.k. is adding six southern
5:39 pm
african countries to its travel read list as it investigates a new coronavirus variant. the cites a health minister saying flights will be suspended from midday friday from countries including south africa, namibia, and botswana. south african scientists say the newly identified variant carries a large number of mutations. the european union is said to propose a time limit for the validity of covid vaccinations for travel within and into the block. it will give priority to vaccinated travelers. the eu governments are pushing for the block to smooth out internal deficits -- out internal differences. goldman sachs economists expect the fed to tighten policy faster than expected next year. goldman forecasts the central bank will double the pace of its withdrawing and asset purchase program to $30 billion a month from january. goldman expects the fed to start
5:40 pm
raising rates from near zero from june next year, more hikes in september and december. those are your first word headlines. yvonne: more on the global supply chain crisis, the ceo of the italian supply chain -- francesco starace told us technology is working to make logistics more efficient. francesco: there is a tension on raw materials, a tension on congestion on ports. there is clearly an inflationary trend. this is not the first time in this business, we have in the solar business in particular twice this economy in the past. typically it has resulted in two months. i think this will drag until mid-2022, but after that we
5:41 pm
don't expect any more tensions. technology is working the other way around. it is pushing down costs and making these technologies more efficient. we see this trend to continue in the next 10 years. it's a blip. it's not the reversing of a trend. what does this mean? there is probably going to be people suffering in this predicament for the next 12 months, but companies like us just push it. >> give us a sense of your expansion plan, how much of that is organic and how much is you doing m&a and how much do you have to spend on that? francesco: this money that we set aside is all organic growth. it is basically networks, roughly 45%, and at the other 45% renewables. the rest is on other technologies. most of that is organic.
5:42 pm
we will have some m&a, particularly acquisitions during the period, but we are talking about opportunistic deals. when i say midsize, i mean in the range of $5 billion, $10 billion, no more. paul: that is enel ceo francesco starace speaking to francine lacqua and tom mackenzie. australia often gets a bit of heat for its record on climate policy. now we've got a few numbers to pin to that. a government report from the department of industry, science, and energy and resources shows the cost of capital increasing if australia has no net zero policy of 100 basis points. if it has no net zero policy and is the only country -- yvonne: that line was buried in
5:43 pm
a whole bunch of language. our team found it. it is the first time they are tying climate change to sovereign credit risk. it is the first time some say they have seen it on print. it goes to show how investors are looking more into this, that these green bonds have this g reen premium, able to keep borrowing costs cheap. that makes it have more market implications. australia at the top of the list when it comes to that default probability by 2050 if they see that disorderly transition scenario. you have australia, south africa, poland, and japan ranked fourth as well. paul: greenium. [laughter] on the subject of climate, things are pretty ugly in sydney at the moment. we have several states in a strong on flood watch. -- in australia on flood watch.
5:44 pm
how bad are these rains? >> as you know, it's pretty yucky in sydney today. more broadly, it's pretty wet across two thirds of australia. there is two big tropical systems that are bringing rain of epic proportions down onto the east coast of australia. australia is a big country, so that is a with spinning -- width spanning 2,500 miles. the bureau of meteorology says this is one of the wettest novembers. yvonne: what type of damage are we looking at right now? sybilla: in terms of general damage, the emergency services have already recorded a spike in phone calls and are expecting more over the weekend. for farmers, rain is not always a good thing.
5:45 pm
we had a deluge of rain batter crops along the east coast of australia, which is devastating for farmers. droughts or flooding rains in australia. we were expecting to have another bump of crops in australia because we had great weather conditions up until now. the rest of the world was hoping for lots of good crop from australia too. we have huge scarcity growing with droughts in north america, russia, and not great conditions in europe either. the rains have come at a terrible time for farmers. paul: it was just a couple years ago that most of the east coast was on fire, struggling with record bushfires. suffice to say that will not happen this summer? sybilla: no. the bureau of meteorology officially confirmed we have a la nina weather event, meaning
5:46 pm
we are set for a muggy summer. we should be prepared for more flash flooding as well because we had a pretty wet spring. if you are heading out on holiday across the east coast, make sure you check flood warnings. yvonne: and wheat prices are off the charts. we are talking about nine-year highs. our asia agricultural reporter in sydney with the latest on all things with the weather. watch us live to talk about the story as well. the big story has been inflation. look at your terminal for the latest news and updates. you can find that on your bloomberg anywhere app. you can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
5:47 pm
5:48 pm
paul: australia will send soldiers and police to the solomon islands to help quell violent protests linked to the nation's diplomatic switch from taiwan to china. let's get more details with our sydney bureau chief. this isn't all about that diplomatic switch. there are a number of factors at
5:49 pm
play in this outbreak of violence on that island. >> it has been unclear as to what the outbreak of violence -- all the factors involved. the switch from taiwan to china is the main thing that is being cited. they are calling for the prime minister to step down there because of that switch. there is part of the country that is still loyal to taiwan and that is causing friction at the moment. yvonne: how likely will this impact more broadly australia and china relations? ainslie: the government here in australia has been careful to say this is a domestic issue for the solomon islands. they are only stepping in because they have been requested by the solomon islands to quell the riots. they have been clear they will not way in on the china -- weigh in on the china diplomatic relationship, which is cautious on their part. paul: to what degree is this
5:50 pm
symptomatic of a problem between the main island and the smaller island of guadalcanal and the division of resources between those two? i understand the main island feels a greater affinity towards taiwan than the rest of the country. ainslie: i do know that they have remained very loyal to taiwan and are displeased that the main central government has made the switch from taiwan to china. it's been an ongoing issue. china has opened an embassy there in recent years. it is coming to a head now, it seems. yvonne: thank you with an update, our sydney bureau chief. amazon is trying to delay the planned takeover of india's future retail by mukesh ambani with a fresh legal challenge. amazon challenges billions of
5:51 pm
dollars were channeled to a company including one of its founders. it has written to india regulators demanding an investigation. daimler's north east asia chief says chinese demand will be positive next year. demand for premium luxury cars remains high in china amid generally strong buying interests for models including their mercedes s class, g class. blackstone has reportedly begun direct discussions over its crown resorts bid, with the casino operator's largest shareholder consolidating pros holdings. he has yet to make any public commentary about this offer. crown has also not responded to the bid. time for morning calls ahead of the asia trading day.
5:52 pm
looking at the snow when it -- this note when it comes to ratings. price pressures pose a greater test for emerging-market sovereigns, because they are exposed to greater currency instability. fitch says pressures will ease in early 2022, but inflation could remain elevated in many markets if services prices continue to pick up. paul: i have been looking at bank of america's research on the chinese economy. it is seeing weak momentum in october. bank of america says more effective easing is warranted. analysts see another year of monetary easing in 2022, with the pboc reducing the rrr and boosting credit expansion. yvonne: a lot of debate on the policy actions from china coming up. we have been talking about it is thanksgiving in the u.s. and
5:53 pm
markets have been closed on a thursday. new zealand is slightly lower. you look at futures and australia, they are pretty much flat. nikkei futures is slightly higher. we could be seeing some pressure in seoul this morning as we deal with the week that was when it comes to central banks. the fomc signaling perhaps a faster tapering. the bok and rbnz hiking rates as well. next week we have a jobs report out of the u.s., pmi numbers out of china, europe as well, and the opec-plus meeting that will be front and center after the fpr release. everyone is looking at their crystal ball for 2022. it is interesting what they think in terms of china. given what we have seen in the lack of performance this year, next year could be different and quite positive when it comes to socgen, if the msci could lead in their forecast for next year.
5:54 pm
they are talking about above 10% when it comes to growth for msci china. compare that to the nikkei, out beating even europe, japan, and the s&p, which is at the bottom of that chart. potentially we could see these darling trades start reversing. paul: south korea and the u.s. vying for your hearts and wallets through pop-culture. we explain what soft power is all about. >> south korea is having a moment. between the netflix show squid game, the boy band bts and the oscar-winning film parasite, its culture suddenly seems to be everywhere. this is the attention economy, where i try to get under the skin of the ways the business world is fighting for your attention. squid game is a massive hit for netflix, 111 million views in its first month alone. it is also an example of a
5:55 pm
korean cultural way that seems to be enveloping the world. parasite, the movie that won oscars last year. bts, the massively popular boy band. people also talk about korean soft power. hard power is where you literally force the country to do what you want. soft power is more subtle. it is a way of demonstrating the benefits of your society, of your cultural and political values. in 1990, when a harvard academic coined the term soft power, he wrote cultural ideology -- when cultural ideology are attractive, other countries will follow. hoping that coops others into supporting the goals you have. the u.s., you have levi jeans, coca-cola, hollywood, all those are things that might make
5:56 pm
people go i want to be like that . when you think about squid game or parasite, they are bleak depictions of society. in squid game, the aim is to win a prize pot of close to $40 million and if you don't win it you die and your organs are harvested. squid game is pretty similar to parasite, a film that won the best picture in the oscars last year. it shows a family on the poor side of town which really wants to get a piece of the life of a wealthy family. they are pretty much willing to do anything and clear anything that gets in their path. it does not depict a society that you might want to emulate. korea has a lot of other mega hits. its content industry is one of its 10 biggest exports by monetary value. that may be the point. u.s. exports helped sell u.s. values. for korea, the exports themselves may be enough.
5:57 pm
the korean democracy is sort of modeled on the u.s. one. if it can help samsung electronics or hyundai cars, that could be a benefit. you don't want to emulate korean socioeconomic values, but you might want to buy some of their goods. the cultural value may lie in the economic value.
5:58 pm
5:59 pm
6:00 pm
paul: good morning. we are counting down to asia's major market opens. >> our top story this hour, a bet on central bank tightening. goldman sachs says it is seeing the doubling of the federal
6:01 pm
banks taper.

20 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on