tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 23, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EST
would have brainerd as vice chair. >> there is no distance between the two of them. >> this is a "don't rock the boat" move. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom k: bloomberg surveillance on radio, television. ferro not here, on his way to capri from madrid. thank you for coming in yesterday. kailey joins us as she did yesterday with good, good perspective. i'm sorry, lisa, this is a rich tuesday before the data onslaught tomorrow. lisa: retail sales are particularly important at this moment. how much do consumers continue to buy despite inflationary fears? frankly, in the data we are showing that they do. pushing back against one of the concerns, higher prices. tom k: thank you for watching across america and globally.
mohamed el-erian really talking to me off-camera about the data dependency, where we are right now in looking at the data. greg with a heated note this morning said the inflation hysteria is wrong, this is an indisputably strong economy, lisa. that is what he sees in the data. >> the inflationary data -- hysteria is different depending on who you're speaking with. there is a political debate of "are we headed back to the 1970's?" pretty much every expert says it is not an accurate portrayal of who we are -- where we are. then there is the concern that higher prices could crimp economic growth naturally and create a really difficult situation for the lowest-income individuals. i think we have to parse through those debates. tom k: been there, done that. i was driving a vw diesel the last time we had this discussion. kailey, i'm sorry, the strategic
petroleum reserve is not a big deal. we have six days of global demand in this tiny, teensy weans a strategic petroleum reserve. i think it is all under the state of virginia. kailey: absolutely, but i think president biden needs to be seen doing something to try to curb inflation. even if it is not necessarily true, there is still hysteria around it when it comes to the voting public and you're seeing that showing up in bidens approval rating. his messaging hasn't been great here because he is a democrat, he does not want to toast that the stock market is doing fine, so we have to do something. maybe this is really his only direct option. tom k: before we get to our guest in the data, let's define this word "hysteria" right now. there is inflation, we all see that. there is a wide set of pros that say, you know what, we will get over it. do you buy it? lisa: i buy that we are not
entering a 1970's circumstance but we do not see the same set of productivity, unemployment rates, the same sort of global pressures. there is still an easy population with a big debt overhang which is disinflation area. the issue that people are looking at is what kind of fiscal impulse we will continue to have, what kind of ramifications due to high -- do the high asset prices have on real inflation? tom k: the data here that matters this morning, the two year yield. we have launched up a solid eight basis points on the two year yield. 30 year bonds still under 2%. equity futures churn. what i do want to say, and we will touch on this and moments, the turkish lira, traces, true prices. i don't exaggerate, substantial turkish lira weakness.
lisa: honestly, we saw erdogan come out and praised the move that we saw last week that read -- led to this record weakness. that is continuing today. i really do want to focus on inflation, it is a hot button topic throughout the whole year and we get a new read on it, we get u.s. market manufacturing and services pmi data for the month of november. this follows earlier data that we got this morning from the u.k. where companies reported the fastest pace of inflation going back w decades --two -- two decades. not clear whether that is long-term and lasting and i think that distinction sometimes gets lost. 1:00 p.m., we get an option. this matters, tom. i hear you sighing. yesterday's notes were not good. tom k: why were they not good? lisa: because people are trying
to price in rate hikes, trying to price in a dynamic with the federal reserve with fed chair powell reinstated, with the sense that they have to respond to a highly political tenuous moment of inflation which they have not seen in decades at 2:00 p.m., president biden is delivering remarks on the economy and consumer prices are widely expected to be a speech about how they are coordinated with india, south korea and japan to possibly release some oil reserves. the question i have is one of the right price for oil? why is this the right time to do it, or is it a political calculation in order to feel like he is doing something to bring down the price of consumer goods ahead of thanksgiving? tom k: this is a joy and well-time. the standard bank is looking at so much of the pacific rim frontier and emerging-market economies. their expertise is led by eric robertson, global head of research. we are thrilled that he could join us this morning.
eric, your distinction is yes, inflation now, but growth fears in the next year. why will growth ebb globally? we have so many telling if the pacific rim will be better than good. >> good morning to everybody. look, our view is one of two years packed into one. we certainly acknowledge that demand is very strong at the moment not only in the u.s., but globally. we acknowledge that is creating a supply happened demand imbalance that is contributed to the inflation narrative that you guys have been discussing on the show already. but one of the things we are very focused on is if you look around the world not only in a developed, but emerging markets, we have most of the central banks poised either to continuing rates or starting to raise rates and not to mention that quantitative easing is going to be rolled back in most of the major markets. and so what concerns us a little bit is that we will see a loss of growth momentum in the second half of next year.
i want to be very clear, that is not a recession call, that is not a doom and gloom call, but it is a notable deceleration and a loss of enthusiasm from eric we are today. >> although, is it sustainable given how much debt we have, given the growth that a lot of equities have come to lie upon? >> well, i think that is a superb question and i would apply that not only she equities, lisa, but to a number of the more pro-cyclical assets around the world that have become, shall we say, dependent or requiring some of this excess liquidity. we've obviously seen the most spectacular economic recovery from the lows of covid last year that receded many decades and that is contributing to the earnings momentum into the spread narrowing in the credit space. but i do think you are absolutely right to point out that as the growth outlook in the middle of next year starts to become more evenly-distributed, where they will be some downside risks,
there may be some markets where that risk starts to play a more important role in the pricing. kailey: do you not anticipate than that affect growth the celebration does materialize, it will actually feed yield lower and therefore it will still be ok for this assets? -- risk assets? >> i would mention something tom mentioned earlier in your show which is the focus on yields curve flattening which has been in the theme of ours. we expect that to continue next year. again, for both developed and emerging markets. we are going to continue to see upward pressure on short and yields as markets adjust the reality of perhaps a faster pace of rate hikes. but in the back end of the curve, we would argue that the growth narrative is such and in theory and potentially, the hysteria as you guys have called it starts to come down next year, we've been arguing that long-term interest rates should
remain relatively stable in a think that will continue to be the case into 2022. tom k: i've got to ask, i'll look at credit default swaps five years out for turkey today and they are not quiet but they are not a panic. and yet, the currency is clearly a panic. one of the level of instability here for mr. erdogan? >> i think there's a couple of narratives that we want to be extremely sensitive to, the first of which that the weakening currency does not seem to be intruding to an improvement and growth or improvement in trade. one of the themes we have highlighted is that tourism into turkey which has historically been an important source of our currency has just not materialized and if you look at the covid elements across europe at the moment, it is not clear that tourism into turkey is going to improve anytime in the
near future. i think the other more interesting fact is the behavior of the central bank. we are in a world where markets are looking at different currencies and looking at how the central banks of those parentheses are behaving and trying to decide whether to reward them or not for raising interest rates and the central bank in turkey is actually going completely the opposite direction and cutting interest rates. i think this countercyclical policy that they are running is really running at odds with what markets want to see. tom k: thank you for the brief. eric robertson with us. i just did a really fancy chart on dollar-lire. it is shockingly elegant as it unravels. this is not an annualized statistic, it is a 50% depreciation off of september which was a real tipping point toward weaker lire. that is 104% annualized depreciation in lire. i would call that an unraveling. lisa: also the longest streak of
losses in 20 years for the currency. really there is no sense that there is going to be a moment for erdogan to basically say "wait a second, if we cut rates, that is not actually making inflation go down, it is actually contributed to higher inflation." there is no sense that he is going to do that. tom k: we are going to continue here, kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro. we've got that set up on a tuesday towards extraordinary economic data tomorrow. we crammed the entire week of data into wednesday. you need to pay attention to these markets as we approach the holiday in america. right now, the two year yield, i'm going to give you .63%, still nicely higher off the fed announcement. anastacia amoroso coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> president biden is reportedly
considering whether to send american military advisers to ukraine according to cnn. the u.s. will go into sending more weapons to ukraine including handheld antiaircraft missiles. a threat of invasion. the kremlin denies any aggressive intentions. the u.s. and other big oil consuming countries are ready to take steps a net lowering crude prices. today, president biden is excited to announce a plan to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve along with china, india, japan and south korea. opec and its allies say they may have to reconsider plans to add more oil production. and a coronavirus battle, the toughest since the first days of the pandemic. the countries doubling down on its strict policy despite rising costs to its people and economy. authorities are taking more extreme measures to contain the delta variant. meanwhile, state media is pushing the line that china is better off closed. tens of thousands of european union citizens are still
applying to remain in the u.k.. it is a sign that many businesses may be in so-called unsettled stages. many are finding out that they don't have the right papers when traveling or trying to change jobs. and a win for the biden administration which once later semiconductor capacity. roughly 30 miles from the manufacturing hub. same sign is open to a more american price and narrowing the gap with taiwan's production. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> this decision really does take some uncertainty out of the federal reserve as an issue. i think that is helpful for all of us. it means that we will be able to spend 100% of our attention and focus on really trying to discern what is happening in the economy. i also say that i think the president made a fine choice. tom k: what is he supposed to say? it's say it was a terrible choice? lisa: how could you? why didn't you pick me, i was just sitting here. he also said something else that was very interesting. he talked about accelerating the taper and possibly ending in earlier. this really reiterates what the fed vice chair was saying. this matters to me. this is all the sudden getting into the zeitgeist. tom k: for those of you not in the game, atlanta puts out great statistics on gdp and inflation and people are really focused on mr. bostic's team and it's great work. jonathan ferro is off.
i think he is shaving today, actually. >> the whole day? tom k: he looked like the guy in bond, and that yesterday. here is the data for those of you on radio. it is a tuesday before thanksgiving day. yields higher 1.63%. the two,, truly spiking up, as they would say, and also spiking up and unraveling, the turkish lira, the chart bouncing off the prime minister's efforts. mr. erdogan want really saying here he is not going to participate in monetary theory and we are out to a 12.51. joe mathieu joins from washington right now as we pick up the debris from yesterday. all in all, a success for the president. >> i was in the room for the announcement, everyone was very carefully choreographed, the
remarks were relatively brief. we heard largely good reviews from capitol hill, or at least, by extension. you expected to hear from progressive like elizabeth warren, like jeff merkley. we knew that they were not fans of jay powell, but it looks like the president certainly believes there are enough moderate democratic republicans make a difference. the grind you do on tom k: tom k: the politics of it all. there is an assumption that the liberals will say we need a more strident vice chairman. one of the power of the left right now with the president of the united states? >> that is a darn good question. i think we are going to find out in a very real way and some have suggested that the president might wait to announce the remaining nominees for those open seats to use it as sort of leverage around the reconciliation bill. all this stuff could come together here. by the way, no one is talking about the debt ceiling as we
have been distracted by the said conversation. reconciliation goes to the senate, comes back to the house. each progressive's to deal with the changes that are coming that bill. he needs them to say ok, mr. president, we are going to take what we can get, and maybe he can sweeten the pot a little bit with some of the folks be considered for those open seats. as i mentioned, we know progressives are not dazzled by what is happening so far. they are hoping to get theirs in the next round. >> he has got so much on his plate. he is getting off at the end of the day for thanksgiving weekend. it is not just the fed, not just passing legislation. it is also the oil reserve release that will potentially get an announcement of today. what is the thinking behind that in terms of what he would like to see with a price response, or is he just following through on what he has already signaled an already priced in? >> i checked the average price of gas on nantucket island this morning, $4.41, that's when the bidens are going to finish their
day as they resume their family tradition of thanksgiving brakes on nantucket, of all places. but this is an optics problem. i don't know if you guys pump your own gas, but have you seen these stickers showing up on gas pumps around the country by buying critics? they show his face and his finger pointing the price and it says "i did that." this is the great fear that this white house has, that this is joe biden's fault even though he doesn't have a heck of a lot to do with rice's going up or down. what do you do? you try to be caught in the active doing something in that is going to be the case today as we have been oregon bloomberg. a likely coordinated announcement with some other countries on the release the sdr. the question is really the more than optics? could this have more than a short-term impact on the markets? >> not just that, but one of the unintended consequences? we heard from opec-plus that they would consider reducing the output in response to the potential release of these oil reserves how much tension is
rising geopolitically in response to the moves that joe biden is trying to spearhead? >> it really underscores how little impact this white house or any white house can half over gas races. we've seen a lot of administrations going back your time releasing the sdr. it makes for a good headline. it's particularly if opec is going to start hitting the gas and pumping more to offset things. this is optics. the white house simply wants that to say, you know what, uncle joe is doing something about it i know it is expensive this year, but maybe prices are going to come down. >> if it all comes down to the perception of inflation, we know that has been an argument point for the republicans in opposition to president biden's economic agenda. the bill back that a plan still has not passed the senate. could there be pressure on some of those virtual votes to not actually pass more spending and given some of the pressures in the economy? >> there absolutely will be
viewed they are already talking about it. joe manchin was ardently have the curve in any patient as one of his biggest worries about the spending the democrats are proposing here. this is why we've watched the price tag come down and it will likely need when the senate once everyone is done with that debate and comes back to the house, looking very different than it did the first time around. this is the reality. the president mccullough compromise. republicans might call it a reality check. tom k: thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. this is hearsay political talk. -- piercing political talk. lots of going on on this tuesday. steeling ourselves for data. >> we are going to get a personal consumption, durable goods. personal income and personal spending, i'm watching that very closely. also the key inflation read that
the fed watches very carefully. this, to me, might be one of the most interesting aspects. university of michigan sentiment survey. we have seen that survey. this could potentially indicate some real weakness that other people are not predicting in the economy is that the case? are we going to continue to see it fall? do we see that consistently? tom k: we have got to set it up right now. in his time as we always do for soccer talk. i'm looking at the gains this week and i'm sorry, manchester city against united, steve is a diehard west ham. that has got to be the game of the weekend. kailey: i'm waiting for you to come talk to me about nfl football or college basketball, something i actually know about. tom k: come on. steve majors, the rates are walking away from steve major right now. west end needs a victory. >> november 28, i looked it up
tom: good morning everyone, " bloomberg surveillance." right now we need to go to the data, we adjusted the obligatory soccer talk, i think it was well done. kailey: people just keep writing in. tom: the data on tuesday is important and will be more important at 8:30 tomorrow morning. the yield is the story. the 10 year was 1.57. the two year was a .5 for up to .62. let us talk about curve flattening, it is happening. lisa: it is not back to predominate -- pre-pandemic, but you see these -- this idea that a higher rate hike includes a
lower pace of inflation. this is not what the fed wants to see but it is not reaching alarmist levels. tom: american oil 71.85. this is a fancy title, global macro director at fidelity investments. far more important for the street, he is technical research analyst, because he is one of the acclaimed charts at fidelity, i have personally seen them over the year and they were an act to the whole decades ago and we are thrilled that he can join us this morning. you talk about a conundrum that continues, what is it. jurrien: the conundrum is inflation is running at six plus percent in the 10 year nominal yield is at 1.6% the economy by many accounts has fully round-trip back to full -- round-trippped backed full
capacity whether you look at the unemployment cap. the fed is lifting off strategy and we will be doing that whole dance for the next couple of years that we do every four or five years, and so, nominal's are not trading where the tips break even, so they seem to be too low compared to where the api is, and that is a conundrum and is the market right and we are going to go to 2.5 percent, which would be around where neutral, where the long term median is of the dot plot? or is the market right and will the fed tightening because actually a deflationary response and with -- and will the cpi rollover? tom: when you look at the trends in place and i will go a little bit physics. when you look at the technical trends, do they indicate junk conditions to come or it -- or is there an emerging force that
suggests smooth futures and curves to come? jurrien: i think it is mostly the latter. as you know i have been an ardent believer that we are in a bull market and has been since -- and have been since 2009 and it is far from complete, but we could see 8000 before this is all said and done in five or so years. so financial conditions even though the fed has put the markets on notice and we see that through the flattening of the yield curve, actual conditions remain extremely loose even though the dollar is strengthening. it reminds me of the 2015 period that i am sure you remember well. yellen was trying to enlist off of the zero lower bound and china was going through all kinds of issues with its currency. the eurozone were going through -- was going through its debt crisis. we had this policy divergence
between central banks and different economic conditions, and then chairwoman yellen did grant off rates in december of 2015. nothing happened and it was quiet and on the first day of the next year, all hell broke loose and energy credit spreads widen and financial conditions blew out and the fed had to black off -- back off. that was seen as a cycle extender, and the late cycle scare went back towards midcycle. my guess is that the powell fed hopes to see a repeat, and by the time they are done tapering, mid-2022, but the base effect on the cpi has gone in reverse. my guess is that is what everyone is keeping their hopes up for. kailey: i am not going to let that 8000 projection go, how
long will it take the s&p to get there in the scenario that you see? jurrien: i am basing this off of the charts, i am a chartest first in full most -- foremost. if you go back to the 1800s, the long trend for the total return is around 6.8% or so. along that trendline, the market has big waves and super cycles both bearish and bullish. the 70's and to thousands were secular bear markets, the 50's and 60's, 80's and 90's and post-gse era are secular bull waves. they last about 18 years, they produce a compound annual growth rate out of about 18% compared to the 11% average that is nominal. by just that simple metric and extrapolating, which is always a danger of the game, back into
thousand nine the s&p was 47% below that wong -- that long-term regression trendline. if we get to 100% above in that time span, which is what the last few secular bulls have done, we would get to 8000 in five years. kailey: can you see the three rate hikes at the market is pricing in happening, and the s&p still reaching 8000 on the trajectory jurrien: we have to distinguish between secular trends. bull markets have many individual business cycles including tightening and they are markets, the whole thing. i do not want to compare what is happening over the next six to 12 months so what a secular view is over the next five years. kailey: specify how high rates could go and maintain this trend that you are seeing. jurrien: implied is that the fed
is in do no harm mode, which i think is generally where it has been in recent years. and that the fed will listen, as it did in 2018 and 2015. it will look at the real economy and what is happening with employment and inflation which are lagging indicators but also what is happening in the financial economy as measured by the bloomberg financial index and by what is happening with the spreads, rates, stocks, currencies, and my sense is, and the long end of the bond market is sensing this as well is that the fed will only go as far as the markets can handle, and in that respect the markets will win for the lack of a better word. kailey: america is bearish on the year ahead and they say we are in for a rate shock after the inflation and growth shock of 2020. do you see an actual shot or the
fed will only act in a way that the market can handle? jurrien: i think the fed will only act in a way that the market can handle. inflation could become a more political issue and one could question whether the nomination of the fed chair, the renomination, if there was a political other tone in terms of whether inflation is going to be a political hot potato or not. my guess is that at some point the base effects will come in and maybe the cpi goes to three, or maybe it goes up after that and becomes more structural. my sense is that the fed will have some time as it tapers to allow some of these excesses to come down, and this will be on a slow and steady rate track and 1617 and 1618 and then we will try to get an estimate of what happens to r-star. at this point you look at the
curve u.s. or -- you assume 3% inflation and even by 2026 the fed is not back to neutral. the bond market would need to reprice itself pretty significantly to get to a super hawkish outcome. lisa: you mentioned that the fed will have time but you have officials and rafael bostic saying that we might need to do that more quickly if they are accelerating the timeline, code that not get them into some kind of policy mistake? jurrien: that is a tricky question because normally the fed will taper and then be done and maybe take a six-month cooling-off period, before it starts raising rates, and that as it starts raising rates may it then starts to shrink the balance sheet, so maybe that cooling-off period will not happen this time and it will go right from taper to raising rates, and the curve is pricing that in.
the market and the fed are in agreement for 2022 and 2023 as to how far rates can go up, and they should. the output gap is gone and the employment gap is gone. there is no way that the fed should be at zero and buying $120 billion a month. everyone is on board with that, but they need to tighten slowly enough or not to quickly enough to get financial conditions to seize up. they are very loose and credit spreads are tied. so far so good, but it will be the stance that we do every cycle. tom: thank you so much, we greatly appreciate it. with fidelity investors. i got out the fancy hp 12 c calculator, you get out to spx 8005 years out, s -- spx 8000 is 11%. lisa: a lot of people say it is
doable, this i found fascinating, the market will win when all is said is done in the fed will not disrupt the status quo. to me that tells you why he feel -- yields are why -- are where they are and the real did -- in the real basis for why people think that they stay there. tom: here's the headline the ramifications of lira. one your paper in lira sold at 20.77%. that is the real world rounding. lisa: the borrowing costs for that nation are skyrocketing dust gate skyrocketing. tom: kailey leinz inferred jonathan ferro. today, as always, on radio, and television. lisa, it is a beautiful new york city morning. lisa: a good one for shaving. ♪ ritika: the latest coronavirus
wave in the new yet -- in the u.s. is taking its toll on some states intensive care units. several are dealing with outbreaks that are as bad as ever with patients can -- with confirmed or expected covid are taking up icu beds. michigan has the highest rate per capita in the u.s.. resident biden dodged the risk of a summit -- senate confirmation fight the to reappoint jerome powell for another term of the chair of central banks. some progressive senators are opposing it. the president selected lowell brainard to be vice chair. the china rate has dropped. there were 8.5 births towards 1000 -- per 1000 people in china. this data is going back to 1978. as of june, the conferencing company reported a broader than
expected number of customers for a second straight quarter raising concerns about customers after stores are opening back up. there are no immediate plans to go public from the president of strike. they say that they are early in the journey. the company raised $600 million in march and is valued at 95 billion. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg ♪
the best thing is to take precautions. obviously getting everyone vaccinated now matters and that people in close quarters with others who are not vaccinated wearing a mask during the winter is sensible. tom: we are thrilled that he could join us through this continuing pandemic. it was issued in 1921 and if you grew up in a science household every basement across this nation had piles and piles of scientific american magazines that were so valuable you could never throw them out. to write in one issue was extraordinary. my father had that privilege and so to did this guest's with a heat -- with a heated opinion piece. he is a senior scholar. congratulation on your opinion piece for "scientific american." let me read from the piece, let
me bring it up, a short snippet. "within the next few weeks we will have two new antivirals and a fear that if highly effective treatment stand at the ready people will have -- people who have shown the vaccine will likely not get vaccinated, how close are we to that? >> we know that they are making them through the fda and one is approved in the united kingdom, and we have seen that with monoclonal antibodies, people who are not vaccinated were willing to take the monoclonal antibodies. we have these unvaccinated who shunned the science but accept the science of the monoclonal antibodies and the viral -- antivirals. we know that preventing infection is always better than treating it, and that has to be what we continue to emphasize, even though we are excited about how the antivirals will be engaging. tom: let us not dive into the weeds of david baltimore. mrna is what seems to be
working, how is a monoclonal antibody different from pfizer, or more during a mrna? dr. adalja: they are basically taking an experimental animal or synthetic cell and making it produce antibodies about the spike protein of the virus. there is not a genetic element to it in the sense that you are not getting an jetix -- injected with mrna. but it is important to remember that with those people who do not want the mrna vaccines we have a johnson & johnson vaccine that is not mrna, many people do not take advantage of that. it is just general opposition to the vaccine, not the mrna vaccine because we would see more people lining up for the j&j vaccine. >> given the fact that we are seeing a surge, we are also seeing the surge in europe, you think that lockdowns are
appropriate? dr. adalja: i do not think they are. if you are going into a lockdown you have a failure of all other policies. using lockdowns in an era of rapid test does not make sense. it is not surprising you are seeing a backlash in europe and it will only get worse. what new york should be doing is encouraging vaccines and using rapid test for people to know their status so they can go about their life. and then, lots of private businesses should be trying to have vaccines as a condition of employment, that is a better thing than lockdown. >> considering the fact that there have been violent protests, what is the reasoning behind health officials backing these kind of policies? dr. adalja: it is unclear. i think they are nervous about hospitals getting into crisis, and for certain places in europe, austria, romania, and bulgaria are worried about hospital capacity and that is
likely what is driving it. other places we saw cases not translating into hospitalization. people do not understand that we will always see evidence of this virus and it is not going anywhere. as long as we keep the spectrum on the mild side, this is a manageable problem. i think we have mixed messaging on what the overall goals are in the united states with covid-19 because a lot of people have not come to grips with this is here to stay in the vaccines are the best way through it. >> if this is going to become pandemic and something -- endemic, what point do we treat this virus similar to the flu where you could have the flu and stay home from work if you are not feeling well but you do not quarantine for 10 days. are we ever going to be able to treat it differently? dr. adalja: i think we will get there and i wrote a piece about off ramps and we have to start thinking about them. we have the ability to test people to know whether or not they are contagious and that
might actually replace self isolation. but you have to get hospitals not worried about their capacity. that is the biggest turning point from the acute phase of the pandemic, when a hospital is not worried about capacity and in the united states many hospitals have gotten there but there are many places where they have 30% of their inpatients are covid-19 patients. you cannot have that been -- be the case and operate normally. that is the biggest hurdle that we face, adding that hospital capacity to -- getting the hospital capacity to dissipate. >> do you see any kind of guarantee that you will -- that they will not have to be concerned again. dr. adalja: if you are in an area of high levels of vaccination and you have a lot of prior immunity in the community you will do ok. you will see cases but they will not translate into hospitalizations. covid has become a regional
problem rather than a systemic problem due to the vaccine and immunity of the population. the rest of the country is getting there but there are places in west virginia were 41% of people are fully vaccinated and it will take them time to get to the status. uc vermont a surgeon cases, but that is not turning into hospitalizations. tom: thank you very much and congratulations on your essay. he is with john hopkins university. i learned more in six minutes, five minutes with the doctor on mrna versus monoclonal that i would have reading for hours. lisa: the idea that people dismiss the non-mrna vaccine perhaps prematurely and the distinction between the two productive qualities is not necessarily there. i wonder how much the lockdowns will reverberate into people not getting vaccinated or fact --
vaccinated in europe and how the u.s. will look into this as they head into a winter of discontent if i will quote tom keene. tom: i was forced at gunpoint to read that. lisa: every day, for an entire winter? tom: how about those spr stored sites? we are getting up to speed on the strategic petroleum reserve and as ben said, the real issue is that there is not much oil. kailey: india will only sell 5 million barrels, we are talking about hundreds of thousands of barrels a day being pumped, and how much does that make a difference and how much does it translate into prices at the pump and what consumers are paying. it will not happen at this matt -- at the snap of a finger and all of those issues will be solved. tom: a typical cavern holds 10 million barrels, almost as much as you have in the living room. lisa: you should come over and
>> the markets expected that powell would be reappointed, he would have brainerd as vice chair. >> there's no difference between the two of them. >> this is a no-brainer move. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, a simulcast. we dive into an interesting hour and a day where we consider oil in america. lots going on. we will get to all of that. anastasia amoroso with us any minute. but salt caverns in the bayou, and maybe we will release the oil, maybe not. is it really going to move the needle on a barrel of oil? lisa: if the u.s. does alone, not. but if the u.s. does