tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 16, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EST
>> i think we are seeing evidence of the labor market, particularly in the united states is pretty tight. >> stocks at the end of the day are an inflation hedge. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: here come the bulls, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. your equity market in .1% on the s&p. tk goldman, 51 hold dread. tom: no question about it, what a disparity between goldman stack -- goldman sachs and morgan stanley. as you open the show i was looking at the same bloomberg headlines to see if we get a note from the white house, i do not see it yet. jonathan: sherrod brown saying i hear it is imminent, it is
imminent, apparently. we will see -- tom: we will see. i want to dovetail the earnings, all you need to know is that the top line is 6.1% top sales versus an estimate of near 2% which is the kind of that get you up. jonathan: the numbers out of home depot are looking good. lisa: the key question is can consumers demand -- can consumer demand each -- be continued in pace, that is a question that keeps getting answered in a resounding yes. jonathan: margins can keep expanding through next year. lisa: this is a testament for their ability to pass along additional costs and consumers want to buy a lot of stuff. with this stuff, the october retail sales are very interesting to see that dynamic. jonathan: walmart coming up a little bit later.
home depot up by 1%. tom: a nice little left but the transactions number was shaky. i want to emphasize with a massive reset on tuesday, you come back from the weekend, you proofread the spelling and she release on tuesday, it is a really important day for global wall street. but then it reaffirms the costs and the others that this is about, you mentioned this yesterday, consensus. wrong, that is what you need to know about consensus, it has been wrong. ben says it is coming in at twice consensus and he is out twice in the next year. jonathan: the home depot christmas tree is -- at casa fe rro is up. we experimented with home depot. lisa: you already have a christmas tree up? tom: this is un-american. jonathan: guess what, i am
english. lisa: when do you take it down? tom: i am afraid to ask what you do with thanksgiving. jonathan: we have a meal. futures down .1%. yields are coming in at a couple of basis points, 150 nine. what is wrong with the tree being up in the middle of november? tom: it is tacky. you do not see the tree up at rock offend to -- at rockefeller center. do you have little lights that rotate at the bottom? jonathan: no, about 1000 lights on a 7.5'3". the euro-dollar 11361. about .4%. lisa: a lot of people in the retail world hope that everybody is like you and buying their christmas tree with the presence to go under them. we get u.s.-october retail sales. the expectation is for it to
climb but this really is the question. we are seeing some of the issues affecting consumer sentiment leading into what they actually do with their money. 10:00 a.m. we get business inventories. companies are building up so they can have enough goods for the christmas season for jonathan ferro's christmas tree as well as the housing market index, i am curious about the homebuilder sentiment at a time you have higher input costs and they are trying to cater to the lower income bracket. a lot of the entry-level home left -- owners want to get in and cannot because the prices are too high. our homebuilders dealing with days and at 2:25, president biden is planning to speak on the bipartisan infrastructure law from new hampshire. welcome the ongoing advertisement to trying get a message across. it gives you a sense of what the spending looks like in the bill.
for roads and bridges, $110 billion. high-speed internet, 65 billion dollars. power grid implementations get six to billion dollars. how much does this mean to the adaptation to the electric vehicle craze as we try to move to a less carbon intensive economy? jonathan: i am just staring at this newsfeed waiting for the headline to drop and i have no idea when it well. tom: ferro launches christmas tree? jonathan: a big headline about that. we can ask them if one of them gets another term. from credit suisse, patrick, i wanted to ask you if your christmas tree is up. you came up with a year ahead forecast back in august, 5k on the s&p year end 2022, what are the reasons to be bullish going into next year? patrick: good morning, i do not have my christmas tree up, but
it probably will in a couple of days. as i look out over the next 12 to 15 months, really what we see as a backdrop and i think that is uncomfortable for investors. they expect the market to have a headwind. in reality what we see is that since last year, all of the success of the s&p 500 have come from profit, this is a multiple expansion story and in many ways multiples are flat or down, so we still see the corporate buybacks is very capable and that is ultimately going to support the market from here. tom: you guys nailed it with a call in this market, also tech as well, do you maintain a barbell strategy of cross sectors or do? more discrete next year? patrick: we continue to love
cyclical sectors, energy and to a lesser degree financials. those are the areas where backdrop remains quite strong for a lot of what they sell, and wheeze evaluations as decade level cheap relative to their own history and a lot of other alternatives out there. valuations are a problem for the market and in those groups we see incredible opportunities from a valuation perspective. lisa: what kind of interest rate backdrop are you basing a lot of your estimates on to get the returns you are expecting lot -- next year in stocks? patrick: we expect interest rates a little bit higher. i do not know if we see the peak in the cycle at about 1.75 where we were 12 days and a few months ago. i expect we will continue to climb higher and that reflects
options and that is why a lot of these cyclical groups work. cyclical optimism will rise, success for a lot of these groups, and that is really where we expect the trend to go. jonathan: i want to build on this commentary, here are the -- here is the quote. "companies expanded profit margin -- margins. we expect profit margins will rise by 40 basis points in 2022 before declining in 2023 due to corporate tax reform." talk to me about what will happen to tax reform and what will happen to the earnings of these companies? patrick: we think margins will continue to climb higher and it really comes down to pricing power and fixed cost leverage. both of those will allow companies to continue to basically pack on costs down the chain and lever their machinery and equipment, which is a top leverage point. when it comes down to taxes, the discussion we were having a few months ago was moving to 28%,
and we do not necessarily do that as a corporate tax rates even more likely. that is not a big headwind and we have incorporated the number into the 2022 estimate. does it gain a net margin? yes. does that actually impacts the gross margin? definitely not. it comes down to how you split it. 3% on the tax rate will not be as big of a headwind as to cause an overall problem. jonathan: get the tree up in a couple of days, that works for me. thank you very much. what is wrong with that? lisa: it seems like a long time. do you immediately take it down right afterwards? jonathan: just met -- just make the most of it, 68 we -- six to eight weeks.
the estimate plus 1.49. eps be -- 339. tom: what i like about this and steve did this yesterday with mastercard, if you go pre-pandemic and compared to where we are now, home depot with a nod january year end. this is pre-pandemic out to the guesstimate for january 2022, and the guesstimate off of dfa function is up 27% over 24 months through a natural disaster. jonathan: the stock is up by .8%. lisa: this is all around good news the idea that consumers want to buy even if prices are higher. even if you strip out inflation how much higher the figures will be. customer transactions actually declined during the period and that is notable. people are grappling with higher prices and sustaining them for now, but the labor market has to catch up. jonathan: that stock is up by
almost 40% year to date with a 40% gain at home depot. this year looking ahead, retail sales 8:30 eastern time. that is your next big stop for the market. tom: it is bigger than it has ever been, 70% of our economy and that gets our attention. you go to the control group and you take out all of the noise and see where the country is. jonathan: is a case of watching what people do and not what they say? that is what lisa said. your equity market comes in at .10%. tom: that is what you did. jonathan: i felt good and i put the tree up. lisa: you know i think it is wonderful. the correlation. jonathan: did you put -- tom: did you put the tottenham christmas ornament? jonathan: i need a silver star. lisa: surveillance road trip. tom: you jonathan: jonathan: are so domestic. from a beautiful new york, this
is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden and president xi spoke for the need for cooperation in their first video summit. it lasted longer than expected, more than three hours but they announced no major breakthroughs. they discussed a wide range of issues including trade, taiwan, and human rights. a key summit democrat has been told to expect an imminent decision on the chair for the federal reserve. sherrod brown said that he views the decision as already been made. powell's term ends in february. it is another hurdle for nord stream 2, germany has halted the process needing another step before the pipeline operates. this comes as they decided to a
german subsidiary. they say it is bringing as prices up as much as 12%. the labor market strength and the benefit program came to an end. companies added 160,000 people to their payrolls last month. they had job openings to a record high and that might indicate that banks will raise interest rates. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
i think they will go filing after june and a little bit later and then they will go faster than what people think. it will be well above the 1.75%. >> the federal fund could end up at 2% or 3%, and even if it is bill dudley, we'll have to see how things unfold. jonathan: the current minneapolis fed president responding to the former new york fed president. your equity market in four in the s&p. yields at a basis point of 159.91. it is all about retail sales 8:30 eastern time. walmart a little bit later and home depot is already out. the numbers a whole lot better than expected. the stock is a little bit softer in the premarket. -.4%. tom: they will do a consummate -- a conference call. walmart will come out here at some point.
the dollar is stronger, that is not a straw -- a strong idea. turkey is a basket case. this is truly uncharted territory. jonathan: look at sterling too, back to 1.3434. the governor of the bank of england sounding like he will hike interest rates again and i say this with a smile. tom: we will have to see. what i know for certain is we talk about jonathan ferro putting up the tree far too early as we shared the tree unveiling at the prudential center in boston where it was 24 degrees below zero, and we were there because we had to be. john joins me on the rough-and-tumble new england politics. you are in washington, how rough-and-tumble is it right now for the president of the united states? >> they are putting the christmas tree up directly across from the bloomberg bureau, so we are just trying to keep up with mr. ferro this
morning. rough-and-tumble will bring the president to new hampshire today, woodstock, new hampshire where joe biden will make the case for this reconciliation bill that speaker nancy pelosi has promised progressives will get a vote this week. we are wondering if that will be around saturday or sunday or into next week because we are waiting for the scoring. we are waiting for the bureau that will tell us if this is paid for. tom: i am sure that the cbo will deliver. do they actually read it? how do they receive that document from neutral authorities? joe: it is a fascinating process and they are all hands on deck right now. imagine if we were preparing for a massive election night coverage where all of the reporters get into a big room and get their marching orders and they go. the good news is that they have started the scoring and have been working on this for weeks as different components come out
from committees, but they are waiting for quite a bit of the bill to arrive and there will be some overnights while they get this done. speaker pelosi made two promises, one to progressives, we will give you a vote the week of november 15 and prominent -- promised moderates that the cbo score will be here, it is not likely that we will see it thursday or friday and it will show that it -- that the bill is not actually totally paid for. lisa: the narrative have moved on and we are focused on inflation and we hear few people talking about additional spending. any likelihood that it will get past? are the democrats too late to get anything done? joe:joe: eight it is entirely possible. the holidays can be a motivator. when we talk about the different details on what might be in the bill and whether it is completely paid for or not it goes to the senate where will be dismantled and the house has to realize and leaders have to realize that that bill will come back in a different form, so leaning into the vote and
getting it across to the other chamber would be considered progress. remembering that on december 3 they have deadlines on government funding likely to be kicked down the road a couple of months and the debt ceiling and democrats say they are not going to put that in the reconciliation bill. it is not just social spending it is another very important matters including a potential default, the story we have been talking about for months. lisa: talking about being late, a fed chair nomination that has not happened in the potential imminence of some sort of announcement. what does it say that we are talking about some tea leaves about who could be nominated for a seat when there has to be somebody thereby february? joe: we are getting bored of reading the same news and board of waiting period it is like making over such a big deal that this meeting for president xi went for over three hours. the white house has been consistent behind the scenes talking about an announcement by thanksgiving. navy you consider that imminent,
but with some people putting up christmas trees i do know if any -- everyone has the patience for that. tom: this is a boston question. it is noted that the holly -- highly qualified husband of governor baynard is in the biting capacity -- administration in a capacity and is a distinguished academic and military presence in democratic party politics. is that an issue? is it a distinction that her husband is in the administration? joe: i do not think so, it is not getting a lot of talk in washington, although it is a footnote in a lot of stories. this is something that you are aware of. i think the politics behind this, the progressive approached first is a president trying to cling onto the center into the midterms, that is a much more important factor in making that decision. jonathan: good to catch up as
always, looking forward to sounding on a little bit later on bloomberg radio at 5:00 p.m. eastern. these were the words of sherrod brown, i will redo the quote. "i hear it is imminent, i will not speculate who it might be right now. i assume a decision has been made and they have not announced it, but i do not even know that." it seems on the hill not many people know much at all. tom: it is a tradition, i would suggest that the president kept it close to the vest. it is an important and discrete decision by the president and it has always been that way. it goes back to the hallmark of fed independence and the upper war in 1965 with lbj and onto the greenspan tenure and frankly, on from that. it is sort of business as usual but i take your point, this time is different. it is more politicized. jonathan: more politicized and we have to wait longer.
lisa: that rhetoric indicates the conversation that must've have been had. senator sherrod brown called the white house and said what you are waiting for, what is the latest? they were probably saying it is imminent. so that is what leads to the sense of sort of knowing something but not knowing anything. everybody wants to understand the delay, i think that is a takeaway. jonathan: we could all make that comment. a few decisions have been made and they have not announced it. tom: you misunderstood, we are not getting a fake tree. jonathan: they want a tree already. what is wrong with a fake tree? i used to be against it to. light a candle that smells like a christmas tree and get on with it. tom: the dogs want a real tray. jonathan: do you wantjonathan: to tell them the story? they buy a tree and leave it in a corner until two days before christmas. tom: december 23.
when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. so many people are overweight now, and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's release from golo. it naturally helps reverse insulin resistance, stops sugar cravings, and releases stubborn fat all while controlling stress and emotional eating. at last, a diet pill that actually works. go to golo.com to get yours.
♪ jonathan: live from new york city on bloomberg radio and tv, good morning. equity futures slightly negative, 0.04% lower. the s&p 500, in and around 7400. goldman sachs looking for 5100 year-end. they are bullish and expecting margins to keep growing even of cost pressure continues rising. at the front end of the yield curve, the bond market, twos, tens, and 30's, we are starting to think about rate hikes. the front end of the yield curve was whipsawed in the last month, not by the federal reserve but by the bank of england and governor bailey. governor bailey in the last 24 hours saying he is increasingly uneasy with the inflation
profile. how is the labor market doing after the u.k. support program for the labor market rolled over and closed off? the labor market is doing ok in the u.k. so far. the cable and the fx market, sterling just a little stronger, the panic against the u.s. dollar. positive 2/10 of 1%. we are having a conversation with governor bailey and the bank of england hiking interest rates next month. tom: give us some color. how unusual is it for them to drive the conversation? there are some people upset. jonathan: every statement is conditional, we understand that. no statement is unconditional. the market focuses on the emphasis and it is clear where the emphasis was from the communication from the bank of england. they are blaming the market. some people agree. they are doing it again a move potentially in the middle of next month. tom: we welcome you all on radio
and television and we are on the watch out of the white house for a new fed chairman. kit juckes joins us now. usually a broad conversation, but with your morning note and dollar dynamics, i need to go right now to the ramifications of dollar strength. what are the significance of euro right through 1.14 to 1.13? kit: we've accelerated. we went down through 1.14 much faster than 1.50. positioning is still light so there is a danger that this accelerates from the downside. there is an armageddon case if this catches on more broadly because a super strong dollar is not good for the world. by and large, it will end up tightening global monetary conditions. the people who have helped world out to a significant degree as other currencies have weakened would be the chinese, without a doubt.
when the euro was really strong back in 2018, dollar-you on -- dollar-yuan was as low as it is now and they turned it around and that forced the fed to stop hiking. the chinese are doing everybody a favor and we can buy the dollar. tom: the distinction is the unique u.s. fiscal policy. how does that trillions of dollar policy play in manila, play in warsaw where we just saw bloomberg headlines on poland upset at their dynamics? how does that singular fiscal impulse play? kit: it just provides extraordinary demand for goods from around the world. in this sense that in the u.k., we have a scheme that kept people employed and allowed employers to keep their staff on even when there wasn't much work. in the united states, folks were handed a check and that check
burned holes in pockets as soon as the outlook improved. we can see that and what we call supply-chain difficulties and some people call just really, really strong demand. we've got the retail sales numbers coming down the pike in a few hours to show us where the latest is on that and that's the big difference. jonathan: you mentioned u.k. whose fault was it in the last month, the markets or the communication -- communication coming out of the bank of england? kit: it is always a bit of both, but i don't understand why we have to have unscheduled speeches that came out sounding very aggressive, even if you say the caveat was always there. they didn't have enough information to hike in november because they hadn't seen this morning's labor market data that show or give a glimpse of what happened when the furlough scheme ends. there is a strong case for the bank of england to be saying we
are waiting to see what happened -- happens after furlough ends. they chose not to do that. i put some blame on them and of course we got overexcited and the market because we are those kind of people, really. jonathan: that's what we do. how credible is the latest communication from fred naito street? kit: that's a bunch of people giving their opinions in front of the select committee so they had to. we've seen the data. the u.k. has gone from that set of data about 230,000 more people in jobs than the pandemic start, pretty good, but a lot of price pressures. weighing the price pressures against the state of the economy, the needle moved in favor of the hawks on the mpc. there are more of them. bailey seems to be one of them. the chance they get the win in december is pretty high.
lisa: there is a muted reaction in fx market. how efficient our foreign exchange markets pricing in differentials and central-bank policies given the growth in particular? kit: fx is never supposed to be just a bland reaction to interest rate differentials so you have to take a more, if you like, holistic view. if we raise rates a lot because our growth inflation trade-off has deteriorated after brexit so that we have bigger supply-chain impairment than other countries, we will end up with higher rates but an economy that weakens more. i don't know that that makes me like a currency as much as the u.s. dollar where you will get higher rates to tame a booming economy. one of those seems better for the currency than the other. i think if nothing else, it is a lesson that fx isn't only about rate differentials. lisa: how much are people
pricing in a scenario in which the fed is forced to hike rates in an economy that is not booming? this is what the bank of england faces, that higher prices require some sort of response, the employee mark marking -- employment market is booming -- how do you see that scenario? kit: not unlikely. one feature of an economy that gets too hot is it blows itself out. if we continue to believe the fed can't hike until they are done tapering, it would be really hard to be done tapering before july at this point in time, then there is a danger that they don't get many hikes done before it becomes clear that the excess heat in the economy is destabilizing it. that's not at all impossible. i generally think the argument that people make if you start raising rates too late you have
to go further, can be wrong, but if you start raising rates too late, you have an unstable economic cycle that's very easy to tip into a dangerous place. jonathan: favorite currency pair to play through next year? kit: still a short table. i'm going to have a hard time over the next couple of months. jonathan: kit juckes, thank you, sir. shorting cable into next year. it could be tough. let's see if they hike interest rates. i can't say that without smiling given the moves of the bank in england over the last month and five to 10 years. lisa: every time you mention it i think of lucy holding the football for charlie brown and pulling it out. jonathan: governor carney, the unreliable boyfriend, and may be bailey will follow suit. numbers out of air france. they flew 26,000 passengers during the week starting november 8 versus 13,200 the
previous seven day period. these are u.s. bound passengers and of course travel reopens, and they get to double their traffic. numbers look good. tom: you saw with singapore opening up to india as well, but i look and matt miller was great , the germany data and austria is stunning. jonathan: they are not good. tom: it is not a visible story in america and it should be. jonathan: in the u.k., to be fully vaccinated you might need a booster. that seems to be the direction the british government are going and i'm wondering how quickly we will follow in the united states. tom: are the three of us totally distracted looking and the headlines? jonathan: just waiting. your echoed it -- equity market unchanged. lisa: i thought he was saying, are the three of us totally distracted? we are waiting to see who will get nominated and whether there
will be a difference. is there a difference between powell and brainard? what does this administration wants, a more dovish or hawkish fed. jonathan: perception versus reality. on the reality, i've seen a governor that's been pretty consistent on the employment market, the chairman and line with her. i don't see much daylight between the two. perception drives markets and will shape the confirmation proceedings. lisa: the one legitimate difference is lael brainard is less tested than jerome powell and it typically takes a couple months to get the communication right. what could not do in terms of increasing volatility? that is legitimate. other than that, not a lot of daylight between the two. jonathan: changing leadership and data points, it is one that resonates with a lot of people. tom: it is not like i am bored
by the whole thing. jonathan: you look bored. tom: did you buy your christmas tree because you want to front run cable weakness? jonathan: there is going to be a rush to get your christmas tree. first it was purchased on williams-sonoma and they outsource that to a vendor that got backlogged and it hasn't arrived, so this weekend i thought, i'm not waiting around for them. that fills my fake premium with williams-sonoma so i went to home depot, on the website -- saturday morning went on the website, found a tree, look at the customer photos, looked ok. it came in the afternoon. tom: that's amazing. jonathan: you can do it online. great delivery. lisa: this segment was sponsored by -- jonathan: i knew i had home depot earnings this week and i need to get a feel for the company, do the research. that's why i paid for it.
lisa: [laughter] jonathan: futures unchanged. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. joe biden and xi jinping tried to accomplish much as possible in their first summit agreed to keep on talking without letting tensions derailed the u.s.-china relationship. the conference lasted more than three hours longer than expected. moderate house democrats expect official estimates may show president biden's tax spending plan won't pay for itself but that might not doom the legislation. projections come out on friday and the cbo and white house are likely to disagree. in germany, the number of daily covid deaths has risen the most in five months. authorities reported 265 deaths.
cases in the last seven days had a record. lawmakers plan to introduce -- hong kong has defended its decision to let j.p. morgan ceo jb diamond skip -- jamie dimon skip the quarantine, carrie lam says the bank does a lot of business and jamie dimon is relatively low risk. global news 24 hours a day, on air and bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am reddick a group to. -- ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
do more things which is what they are supposed to be doing. but if you are unvaccinated, that's dangerous and pretty much everyone who is unvaccinated can expect to get sick. tom: from new york city, good morning. lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. equities up 0.06%. yields come in about a basis point, 1.974. in about an hour and 40 minutes you will have u.s. retail sales. news on the vaccine front, the covid bill. pfizer recent -- reaching a licensing agreement to allow generic drug manufacturers to produce inexpensive versions of its covid-19 pill. they follow a similar move by merck. tom: it is about profits and i guess they take no royalties on it off they go. that's again another way of first world research being
efficacious to say the least, and then you move on and give it away to the poor countries. huge move -- news flow this morning. doctor, good morning to you. i want to go back to first principles which is what we see in germany and the research that the weather changed, people went inside and the unvaccinated were hammered by covid because they are inside. a year ago, we talked about that. is it still valid, being inside is not a good thing? dr. adalja: definitely if you are in places with low numbers of unvaccinated individuals and high community spread. this virus spreads more likely when ventilation is indoors rather than outdoors so if you have unvaccinated indoors and this virus is ever present, you will get infected. that is happening not just in europe but in u.s. states.
the unvaccinated will be infected, that is inevitable. tom: what do you see in this nation as the next approach to the unvaccinated? dr. adalja: it's very difficult. we still want to encourage them to get there first and second doses because that's the best thing they can do. we can strategically use testing for unvaccinated individuals to make sure they are not harboring the virus. there's also the use of strategic masks so all of those blunt tools that we use for macy's some role for the anti--- may see some broad role for the unvaccinated. we don't want them to get infected so the best thing is to prevent them from getting infected. when you are not using high tech tools like vaccines, it comes back to the blunt tools and excluding them from events. jonathan: how do we decide what is and was not -- what is not
fully vaccinated? dr. adalja: to me, i think what you mean is do you have a high level of protection against serious disease, hospitalization, and death? two men debtors -- two doses of moderna or one of johnson & johnson, the definition holds. i don't think we want to be in the business of -- we want to get the primary series done in individuals because if you look at who is infected and spreading this virus, it is not people who don't have their boosters. it is people who don't have any vaccination shot that's the real tipping point between getting your primary series or not having anything at all, that's the demarcation. jonathan: you mentioned a conversation in the u.k. and also in new york, that people should self assess their vulnerability as to whether they need a booster. what do you make of that? dr. adalja: i understand local
governments and public health authorities are frustrated because the booster story has been convoluted and mixed, a lot of bad messaging so people don't know if they are eligible. local places want it to be simple, if you want it, go get it who benefits the most? people at high risk who are 65, with high risk conditions, and people who got the j&j vaccine. the ordinary public, there is not much evidence of benefit. i don't think the general population, and i've not seen compelling data that they need boosters, but the high risk groups should be getting boosters. if people want to be simple and nobody has to try to figure out they do or don't, but it is not boosters that will change the pandemic, it is first and second doses. lisa: that is the issue, getting people who need to be vaccinated vaccinated to help that has
prevented this from being a systemic problem. what do you think about singapore's approach, kicking people off national healthcare, or austria, you stay in knocked out -- not -- lockdown and everybody else can go out? do you think those are more appropriate? dr. adalja: it would be hard for that to be palatable in the united states because we've seen the way this has divided the country. if you are a third-party payer, you are an insurance company and your clients are not getting vaccinated, there should be some penalty because you will incur more insurance costs. from a business perspective, i have no problem with an insurance company saying you have to be vaccinated. they charge people a differential if you smoke or don't smoke. that could happen. i don't know if the austrian approach of keeping people indoors and lockdown makes sense in the way that we've got rapid tests.
you could probably fall short of doing that saying, if you are unvaccinated you have to do a rapid test before you come in. there are ways to ensure that draconian approach of keeping people indoors or not allowing them to interact, we have better tools and that's not the best way to do it. jonathan: doctor, always enjoy catching up with you. dr. amesh adalja of johns hopkins. i wonder what will happen with the u.k. if they consider someone with a third shot to be vaccinated. if you haven't been vaccinated you have to do 1, 2, wait six months, so you have to be -- you have to wait six months to be fully vaccinated? tom: do you partition germany as munich is different than hamburg? jonathan: eastern europe is different. tom: is it all-encompassing germany as a risk or do you see
it as regional, discrete? jonathan: in my view, what we are seeing in eastern europe is less take up of the vaccination in eastern germany and therefore more cases. that's what i've been reading. that's not my personal view. tom: compare that to the united kingdom. jonathan: cases are building around the world, that's the bottom line. that's why you've seen the prime minister push forward with the bigger effort to get boosters to people, away from the mall -- most vulnerable. tom: i am sorry, it is the cold. we behave differently when it is cold. lisa: the idea of people going inside i wonder at what point the six will get -- some of the ramifications in singapore and austria. jonathan: we've seen it in europe. we were hesitant about establishing a two-tier society when we started rolling out the vaccines and that hesitancy is not there. lisa: i wonder how much that
>> gridlock between the bulls and the bears. >> i think we are seeing evidence that the labor market particularly in the united states is pretty tight. >> stocks at the end of the day are an inflation hedge. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: and we wait a little bit longer. from york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up four on the s&p, advancing zero point 1%. we keep waiting. tom: it is almost like waiting for a new yankees manager. we are waiting, and what is fascinating here, get out the calendar, you were right week