tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg November 15, 2021 9:00pm-11:00pm EST
kicking off a 30 day grace period. taking a look at markets here right now, equity markets a little bit on the good side here, i'll give you the warm tone as you mentioned between president biden and president she adds the virtual summit kicked off. it certainly did set up a tone here today for the markets, although bond markets in particular is where you're seeing signs of red, deep in the red territory. overnight on inflation concerns, former fed officials talking about how the fed is behind the curve and they need to speed up the taper given the inflationary pressures out there. when it comes to the two-year,
the tenure breakeven rates at multiyear highs right now a 2.74%. that is something that is wearing the bond markets. equity markets, not too much just yet. haslinda: that's right, it's all about inflation. cpi at the highest level in years. that is fueling inflation concern from the likes of bill dudley, saying if the fed doesn't taper aggressively is going to get caught behind the curve. two ways to look at it. it all depends on what jay powell has to say about that. yvonne: and there is still lots to talk about when it comes to the virtual summit. we heard about 10 minutes of it and it seemed to be quite upbeat, talking about cooperation, how the two nations are going to coexist, according to president she.
nash president xi. a good start so far. haslinda: a good start, and also biden said that u.s.-china relations are of profound importance to the rest of the world. it is interesting, two years ago , there were said to be on the cusp of a cold war. we've seen the likes of the u.s. getting its allies in a row. the u.k. behind it as well. china seeing the pressure from the world to perhaps come up military action when it comes to taiwan. that is the redline we are all
watching for. yvonne: the fact that these two have a personal relationship is a great asset on how they're going to continue in conversations moving forward. that's something that perhaps the markets might be overlooking . i'm not sure if they are at the moment but when it comes to trade talks, they are still very negative. but it's interesting that it could be more meaningful when it comes to anything tangible on trade. haslinda: under the obama administration, biden did meet with xi jinping. he talked about i don't want to be formal because we know each other. that's why the conversation was described as candid. we will hear from henry kissinger himself, a host of
voices to weigh in on that u.s.-china relation. and don't forget, one meeting will be hosted by mike bloomberg himself. yvonne: we will bring you a full coverage of what is going on. stephen engle will talk us through what we've learned at these virtual summits. talk about the significance of this and the fact that we start out pretty warm. steven: you can never steal my thunder. i was struck by this as well, the tone was obviously set and in the opening 10 minutes, you saw xi jinping smiling and giving president biden -- very happy to see president biden, and biden is smiling and waving
back. it does set the tone, and i'm not being disrespectful to president xi, but he usually has a desist are said -- disinterested and dour look on his face. but it was a good opening salvo. biden saying he look forward to a candid and forthright discussion. however, all countries he said have to play by the same rules of the road. and that gets it -- into the various granular details of economic policy that the u.s. feels they are put at a disadvantage from china. xi jinping opened up by calling to say that the u.s. and china should coexist in peace. taiwan is a flashpoint and there have been comments from the biden administration and biden
himself that questions whether the biden administration is still sticking to the teaching ambiguity policy and saying that the united states and its allies would come to the aid of taiwan if china ever invaded. so i'm sure xi jinping wants clarification behind closed doors, has the view toward taiwan changed? and the u.s. wants to know if xi jinping's -- what his intentions are. haslinda: he also mentioned that both countries are at critical stages in development, almost hinting that perhaps china needs that space to grow and be the power it wants to be. stephen: absolutely. this is a critical time in china's trajectory, as xi jinping as well was able to last week deliver that historical document, he is able to essentially submit himself as
the mount rushmore of china's leaders, he is for the modern era of china the quintessential strongman in supreme power with possible indefinite rule. he does want to see china treated equally and respectfully on the world stage. joe biden wants to reassert america's legitimacy as well as a democracy and the leading economy, and let's face it, the leading military in the world. that these two have to coexist and they will go through a lot of issues. they will talk about taiwan, about the south china sea and about human rights. trade will be talked about but trade won't necessarily be the center point or it won't dominate the several hours of discussion which are going on
right now, and trade is a very critical one because the biden administration basically assumed the trump trade tariffs and the parameters of the phase one trade deal, which some say needs to either be unwound or revisited. yvonne: stephen engle with the latest. that's get the first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. >> president biden has promised americans that his new infrastructure law will improve their lives and keep the economy moving forward. the president signed the measure at a white house ceremony. he has appointed officials to guide the law's enactment. recent polls show americans feel pessimistic about the economy, especially about inflation. pres. biden: here in washington you've heard countless speeches and promises but today we are
finally getting this done. so my message to the american people is this, america is moving again, and your life is going to change for the better. >> a governor has hit back at critics accusing him of misleading the markets. lawmakers in the treasury committee took a traditional statements and turn them into unconventional views of the world. oil reversed losses to go slightly higher in new york after an announcement from the biden administration on what's happening, the present increasing -- facing increasing pressure on gasoline prices. saudi arabia and the united arab earmarked's -- united arab
emirates remain cautious in the ability to increase output. a developer had coupon payments worth about $90 million due last week but sources say investors have yet to receive any funds but end of monday. shares are suspended in hong kong and trying to sell assets to raise cash. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. yvonne: the cathay pacific situation, hong kong considering discussing limiting out -- aircrew activity upon return, considering restrictions on aircrews as well after a cafe pilot contracted covid from a flight to frankfurt.
they're doing some tighter restrictions among the company as well for cargo and passenger flights. will they have enough pilots and crew members to keep operations going? and we're hearing some news on jamie dimon as well. haslinda: that quarantine and we had carrie lam saying the reason jamie dimon had been exempt from the quarantine because the risk for controllable, it's typical for ceos of companies because it is crucial, after two years of being under lockdown and need to be able to meet their goals all over the world. financial company ceo saying hong kong needs to start to open up its borders. yvonne: there's a lot of questions and controversy around this as they did drop those exemptions. we will talk more about that
inflation is rising, it will not be temporary, neel kashkari from the annapolis fed said no way inflation is going to be temporary. let's listen to a good portion of what he said. >> no one is making a lot of that at all. let's take the supply and demand one a time. supply chains have been disrupted because of the pandemic. barring some introduction of some new wave or some new strain of the virus, though supply chains should work themselves out, some taking longer than others. on the demand side, and some say it's about a demand shock and a lot of fiscal stimulus, we know the past two fiscal stimulus. fiscal stimulus provides a one-time boost and then tapers off and then it itself becomes a drag on the economy.
unless there is a massive new spending package that is not paid for, there's nothing i'm seeing that makes me think this is a long-term change in inflation or inflation expectations. we are seeing pressures that are real but most of the evidence in my mind seems to be that they will be temporary, even though people having to pay it. if we overreact by saying let's just change the cap on monetary policy to deal with the one-time effects, that could lead to a worse long-term outcome for the economy. >> the supply chain shortages, constraints, blockages or whatever you want to call them, they don't seem to be going away. >> i'm not suggesting we are out of the woods at all, but many of these sectors are working themselves out. some will take longer than others. kathleen: larry summers has been concerned for some time that the
fed is not moving fast enough and is going to let inflation get so high that the fed has to move way too fast to pull it back in. he is talking about things like demand driven inflation, prices rising because of a strong economy. some people going back to work. it is not just things like commodity prices, firmer housing prices in a hot market and things like that, although they are contributing to it too. what is the risk that this doesn't go away and does become entrenched? >> larry summers put out a piece earlier today, it goes back to the economic theory that it one-time boost to fiscal spending leads to higher prices, yes. does it lead to higher inflation, which means ongoing year after year continuing price increases? i don't understand the mechanism
by which larry summers thinks that one time fiscal stimulus leads to a change in the path of inflation unless he is saying inflation expectations will become unanchored. the federal reserve will never allow that to happen. if we thought that long-term inflation expectations were becoming unanchored, we would certainly adjust to make sure that did not happen. kathleen: there is definitely a pain that people across the country are feeling. when you look at the consumer sentiment survey from this friday, richard carton has been doing this survey since 1976. consumer sentiment fell to a 10 year low in early november. statement he put out is, because of rising prices and the growing belief among consumers at no effective policies have yet been about to reduce the damage from surging inflation. again, someone who has watched this for a long time, and authority here, how do you
respond to that, you don't see a problem? >> no, i do see a problem. the higher prices are real and people are paying them and it is causing pain. higher wage growth to the lowest income americans, we still have 4-5,000,000 americans who are out of work who would still be working had there been no pandemic. let's not miss out on the fact that the pandemic has killed 700,000 million americans a year. there is a lot of pain there, too. just to say we need to focus on inflation and ignore the labor market, that is only half of our mandate. so we need to pay attention to both sides of this. people who are out of work and would like to work but they are afraid because of covid and delta, they are suffering too, and we cannot lose sight of that. kathleen: i ask him to respond to what will dudley said about
how they will have to speed up that taper. he said basically that he didn't know any better or bill dudley didn't know any better than him what's going to be happening. quite a pushback there. he has his view and he is sticking to it. we will see in the end who proves to be right. yvonne: there seems to be a fine line between risk and uncertainty. when it comes to central bankers, uncertainty is what has happened with inflation and the pandemic. great interview with neel kashkari. and our fourth annual bloomberg new employees forum, will have face-to-face discussions with world leaders on topics from inflation, trade and finance as well as health. this is bloomberg. ♪
haslinda: singapore's front and center as they open up more of the travel lanes with the rest of the world. you think about the airline stocks, up about .4%. let's get more on the virus situation and bring in the director general from the international vaccine institute. as we see more nations like singapore decide to live with covid, i have to wonder, do you think the science is done? jerome: the science is definitely not complete. we are still looking for a vaccine that will prevent transmission. as long as we don't have that, we will have to figure out other ways. we know the vaccines work to reduce it -- severe infections but people are still being hospitalized. in increasing numbers, a good proportion of them are vaccinated. they will do well, hopefully,
and we have new drugs that make their outcomes even better, drugs that will reduce the risk of death. but a number things have to be used together. it's not only vaccines, it's about keeping distance, wearing masks, and the new drugs and treatment, and peeping -- keeping people who are infected isolated. no one has the magic formula yet. haslinda: we also have that new pfizer pill. how much of a game changer is it and what do scientists still want to know about it? jerome: the pfizer pill and the new drug from merck have the ability to dig -- decrease hospitalization and death in people with mild infections. they didn't really study them and people who had been vaccinated and infected. if you are vaccinated and develop an infection and mild symptoms, we take the medication and likely, because we don't
actually have that piece of data, the risk of hospitalization is lowered. now we have an effective vaccine and we have a way to treat people who have breakthrough infections. so we should be able to significantly impact mortality from covid-19, which is the goal. reduce morbidity and mortality from covid-19. it's not clear if that will allow additional countries to open up. yvonne: there was an ambitious target of delivering 2 billion doses to developing countries. they are still way off mark here right now. what went wrong, do you think? jerome: covid was a very ambitious effort. the world has to turn around and supported multilaterally because this isn't something a single nation can do. to extent, to some extent we failed to provide covax with the
support it needed and the leadership that it needed in order to accomplish its mission. we need to give them the authority, and we really didn't. whether it was a delay in the application of funding, difficulty negotiating long-term contracts with drug manufacturers, there are a lot of different reasons, and it remains the case -- haslinda: booster shots, how long will they last? jerome: we don't know. possibly 6-8 months, potentially longer. when we use booster shots, sometimes the six months dosed allows immune responses to be prolonged, maybe 6-12 months. but again, we don't have the data yet. haslinda: jerome, thank you so much. plenty more ahead, keep it here
>> we need to establish some common sense guard rails. and work together where our interests intersect, especially on vinyl growth issues like climate change. it is as responsible world leadership as major world leaders. yvonne: president biden they're beginning that first face-to-face virtual summit.
as we've been talking about the optics, the tone of all this, it is slightly positive and it seems like that could go a long way potentially on building that relationship. but still a lot of questions remain about hard-hitting issues like taiwan and tariffs. we are not sure if they will actually be discussed. haslinda: coming at a time when tensions have been heating up, one of the things investors are looking out for is those u.s. sanctions on china. it's a very important topic, whether the u.s. decides to drop those sanctions is a very key thing. and impacting trade relations between the two. yvonne: let's talk more about
australia first. the rba governor is speaking at this hour, making his speech in talking more about inflationary pressures they are seeing after they dropped the yield curve target a few weeks ago. they think they could see a rate rise. talking about before 2024, so that is pushing closer to what we have been seeing earlier, the market trying to bring forward some of the rate hike expectations. still fairly dovish i guess you could say and wage growth is not the only determinant of inflation. still plausible for the first rate rise not being before 2024. haslinda: making it difficult for them to decide whether to have rate rises in light of the inflation. equinox was the first crypto
company to start trading in the u.s. last year. now it is in the process of being regulated other central bank here in the lion city. the ceo joins me. good to have you with us. you are in the process of moving your whole operation from hong kong to singapore. why is that? richard: actually the change now is me myself, i'm moving from hong kong to singapore. jamie dimon highlighted today that it's really hard for the ceo of a global business not to be able to travel freely. i have done seven quarantines in hong kong sought been a little bit restricted over the last year and a half. everything that's going on makes it a logical place for us to be. haslinda: is it about what it allows you to do, how do you
expect crypto space to evolve? richard: your point is important. singapore is a regulator that's taken and innovative approach. we don't know what is around the corner and how it is going to adapt. china has made some fairly bold moves over the last couple of months but even the u.s., when they fail to issue an etf approval for eight years, that's a 12,000% opportunity for people who want to access bitcoin in their savings. yvonne: seven quarantines does not sound good. i'm just wondering when it comes to the legislation side, finance and singapore and the fallout, has that changed how you do business and how you comply with the rules and regulations there?
richard: i think the key here is that we've always complied with regulations and we've always been someone effectively focused on being someone that regulators can speak to and understand how regulatory frameworks should progress in this brand-new industry. so we've spent a lot of time talking with them in their initial expiration of the area, how to think about derivatives, we are involved in that from the beginning. equally, if you look at our regulated custodian, that is something we work with the u.k. regulator for some time. we ended up being the first entity to be regulated under that framework. yvonne: in terms of flows, given the movement we seen in bitcoin, people saying the market be more
mainstream, you have more bets that this is more of an inflationary hedge. where are you seeing the most action right now on your platform? richard: it's interesting. if you look at the average transaction, its increase by about five times over the last few months. that's really indicative of institutions really coming to play in the space. our volumes are up about 20 since we listed on the nasdaq exchange and that has mainly been from institutional flow coming in and participating, anything from corporate's to hedge puts -- two hinged -- hedge funds to the corporate space have been very active. and all the moves we've seen recently around pimco announcing , the fixed income ceo at blackrock, a lot of fixed income people starting to move into the space. that is fairly natural, talking
about inflation, new look at bonds across the world, $18 trillion of paper with negative eels, that is indicative of a manipulated market. everyone is looking at where is the escape valve and they are seeing the moves in bitcoin. that is exactly what is happening. haslinda: you had the ceo waiting and saying bitcoin took increasing risks to financial stability. there has been so much volatility, retail investors are getting in without even understanding the asset. richard: volatility is just natural at where we are in this stage of the cycle. we are at an early stage of adoption. if you look at things on a bell curve of adoption, the bank of england has obviously struggled to fix their narrative around inflation and things are going to get blamed. i think bitcoin will end up
getting blamed for inflation but obviously the central banks want to be putting in place central-bank digital currency to have control over the way people spend their money and also help people through programs in these sorts of things. central banks are motivated to put people away. haslinda: some say the cdc will kill bitcoin. richard: bitcoin is a decentralized money so it is the opposite of see bdc. i will bring benefits to citizens but there are a few senator concerns around deeply negative yields or interest rates as a potentiality when you remove cash from the system. he takes -- you take what's happening in switzerland, with
negative interest rates going on for so long. people are taking banknotes out of the bank and sticking them in savings. yvonne: there is so much around the meta-verse. how will that be for cryptocurrency? what sort of boost or tailwind does that bring? richard: that is a fantastic segue because when you think about the meta-verse, and i've had recent experience within this when i was doing my seventh quarantine, my -- one of my investors suggested i buy a vr headset for our next meeting. it really is a different world, the future is here. the idea that gold should be the hardest money and that type of world is really starting to become illogical as an argument. i would say the meta-verse starting to help people understand the way the whole world is going and were moving
to a more digital world so we will end up with more digital money. haslinda: without giving your prediction to where bitcoin will be, where is it headed? richard: we've got dems calling for a fourth round of stimulus. for bitcoin, a recently said 175,000 for the end of the year. that was prolonged a little bit by elon musk and china but i still think we will see bitcoin north of 100,000 by the end of the year. i think in this cycle, even as early as march, think we will be looking at 175,000. haslinda: are you buying? we will discover singapore's hopes and dreams of becoming a cryptocurrency space and in the days ahead, we will talk fintech
trade and all things to do with the new economy. you don't want to miss that. that's happening tomorrow night. we will speak with the editor-in-chief of bloomberg news. let's get the first word news with vonnie quinn in new york. >> president biden and xi jinping have begun their first face-to-face virtual summit, saying they look forward to the discussion. the chinese president said the two nations will work together to ensure peace. officials expect the talks to last several hours. two former fed president said the central bank will probably have to raise its rate target to keep inflation in check. thing is possible the fed's fun
right will go as high as 4%. dudley says markets are overestimating the pace and scope of hikes. >> i think that will probably start in june our little later and then go faster than people think and to a higher degree than people think. probably 3-4. >> jamie dimon has added to the voices criticizing strict quarantine rules saying restrictions are making it hard to normalize. he should've been card to stay three weeks. a survey found almost half of international finance firms are contemplating moving south or even out of hong kong. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by
yvonne: china's credit markets are in focus today. here's what the docs are doing, mostly lower, down 11% after kaisa group. look at the details from our china credit editor. basically doing the same thing that evergrande did. >> i think it is highly likely that with all these firms facing these pressures, we see more funds referring to the 30 day break period to buy themselves a little more time to make the payments. kais owesa $400 million for an out bond that comes due.
there is now a key deadline to watch. even before today there was some concern that they would get paid. they have taken yields from somewhere in the 25% region to below 20% again. haslinda: the question is, will it be able to make the payments? >> absolutely. i think along with many of these stressed developers, they are under the gun here because the financial markets just are not open to many developers here. kaisa has a lot of offshore debt. it's definitely one of those developers that's concerned.
if we see a default or missed payment on the outstanding amount of that bond, that would shake the credit markets beyond what we've seen. it's very popular among many different types of funds. yvonne: these property developers are selling good debt, it's something haven't seen for some time since china introduced the three red lines. is this a good sign for the developers? >> absolutely, it is certainly a positive sign, it's worth bearing in mind that these developments which typically issue on the interbank bond market and now it looks like they are returning, they are merely those feeling the most pressure here. the next thing to watch is whether those issuances from the
interbank bond market are followed by sales at smaller and riskier firms and whether it becomes an alternative to ease liquidity pressures. if they're not able to remit the funds on shore to pay off offshore debt, that will remain an area of pressure for many developers that have substantial bonds outstanding. yvonne: good to have you with the latest on kaisa. and talking about the second half of the xi and biden summit, we will see what the top of the hour brings. haslinda: we have the two sides wanting to ensure that they speak to each other and communication remains open so there is no misunderstanding. lots of issues between the two
yvonne: this is bloomberg markets asia. there may be some relief in the shipping space, suggesting some of the supply chain issues are easing in the busiest shipping routes. while consumer indexes on the longest streak of decline since march of 2018. meanwhile europe is looking at easing restrictions on state aid for the semiconductor industry after france called for more intervention in the approach to overcoming the chip crisis. the european commission may agree with that when it meets on wednesday. major retail earnings ahead of the shopping season, walmart results on wednesday, followed by lowe's, target, and much more throughout the week. those earnings will be a key
barometer for the economy. we could be in for a tough quarter, and investors will look for clarity on when supply disruptions could end. and how the companies are positioned heading into the all-important holiday shopping season. bloomberg terminal users can read more about that in our newsletter. haslinda: speaking of the supply chain crunch, we heard how it is affecting the company outlooks. >> it is specific to each supplier. there are more difficulties to find people, young people that need to be trained and plan for them.
that is the message i want to convey. haslinda: the ceo speaking exclusively to bloomberg. let's do a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. kkr and business partners acquire data on $15 billion, the agreement is a 25% premium for -- the transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of next year. we work shares gained after reporting a narrow loss in his first financial results as a public company. compared with six cents a year ago while sales declined 18%. his said is making progress bringing people back into shared spaces expecting an occupancy rate of 59% in october.
and mitsubishi ef j raised its financial forecast more than expected. a record $9 billion in the year ended march, a projection of $7 billion. in cut its outlook. sources tell us bnp paribas could sell its bank of the west. possible bidders may include the bank of montreal and pnc financial. it has been in the bnp stable for more than four decades. valuing the business at $15 billion. tesla shares nearing bear market territory after tumbling, selling a chunk of the stock and hinting that may sell more. shares dropped as much as 5.3% in yields on monday before
paring some losses. the stock is down nearly 18% from a record high. yvonne: we will get part two of the biden-xi summit to be held potentially around 11:00 our local time in beijing. pretty interesting. they are taking a 15 minute break right now. the first round was just saying hello, nice to see you come over and. the second half is expected to take a turn more serious and get into more hard-hitting issues. haslinda: it could be totally different from what is being discussed kind the scenes. what is important is that they are having a conversation. they both know each other from the obama administration days so perhaps they can make some progress. yvonne: jp came out with a
pretty interesting call, saying they are thinking that maybe it is time to lift the terrace because that could help ease some of the inflationary concerns out there. that would be a good move for equities in the u.s. and china as well. a rare call but they are saying this could be a potential relief or some of the consumers out there after the u.s. government stimulus does wear off. it's a pretty mixed bag but mostly in the bond market were seeing that global bonds selloff continue once again, the 10 year on australia up five basis points. it seems like not enough to change the market direction at the moment. there is still a chance at rates will not go up before 2024, so still dovish there from the rba. haslinda: worth noting the index
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♪ haslinda: it is almost 11 a.m. in singapore and shanghai. i'm haslinda almond. yvonne: i'm yvonne mann. president biden and xi begin their summit with a range of contentious topics. the second round kicking up any second now. rising inflation problems and new calls for tapering by the minneapolis fed warning against
overreacting. yvonne: india's economy reopens faster than expected. we will trace the pace of recovery. haslinda: markets really about surging yields on the back of a stronger than expected manufacturing numbers. that follows the cpi surging to the highest in 30 years. 10 year yield higher than 1.6%. 30 year yield rising by 2%. we are seeing a similar story for the aussie bonds and new zealand bon surging as welld. tapering could be more aggressive than has been flagged by the fed itself. the equity markets front and center. the summit between biden and xi jinping. the second half is starting any
minute now. we have the msci asia index up. the gains in the csi 300 index up by .5%. there is optimism something will come out of this -- the talks we are seeing today. yvonne: yeah, we will see how long lasting that boost from these trade talks are going to be given the fallout we have been seeing in the property sector, also when it comes to prosperity. we have been talking to our guests. the rba central bank governors talking about inflation. saying there's a low probability of meeting the cpi target in 2022. he's ruling out the fact when it comes to data, when it comes to the forecast don't warrant a rate hike next year, but perhaps a little less dovishness that the faster cpi target progress
could see a rate rise before 2024, which is basically what the market has been pricing in now and pushing forward a lot of the rate hikes for australia. inflation pressures for now when it comes to next year not going to reach that target. haslinda: let's get back to the summit between biden and xi. both presidents have begun their face-to-face summit, aiming to stabilize relationship between the nations. downplaying expectations for major breakthroughs. pres. biden: it seems to me we have to establish common sense guardrails. to be clear and honest where we disagree and work together where our interests intersect, especially on vital global issues like climate change. it's responsible world leadership and you are a wager world leader. yvonne: the second round begins
any time now. joining us this stephen engle and our bloomberg opinions economist. let's see how things kicked off and what could the second half bring. stephen: it was a cordial beginning as we saw 10 minutes with the tv cameras in the white house, showing joe biden and his team. i saw antony blinken and janet yellen. from the chinese side, xi jinping was cordial. he used the old adage which means "old friend." they knew each other when joe biden was the vice president to barack obama. xi jinping was coming up in the ranks of the communist party before he became the chairman and president in 2012. they do have past history, but they also have the past nine years or so of acrimony between china and the united states,
exacerbated some would say by the trump administration's trade war, tariffs, and rhetoric against china. we're hearing from white house sources that biden is expected to, in this several hour long virtual summit, which now should be starting its second half after a 15 minute break. expected to press xi on a number of issues. taiwan front and center, but also human rights, south china sea, trade issues. industrial policy terms of subsidies to industrial giants in china that biden would like to see clarity on. officials telling bloomberg that trade officials will not dominate the conversation. there will be discussion on those tariffs and the implementation of the trump era preliminary phase one trade deal. yvonne: david, you have been writing about how trump's phase one trade deal, the biden
initiation should put that to rest. why is that? david: that is not going to happen. we saw a trade representative saying last month they want to enforce that. the key part of this is this $200 billion of additional purchases china is expected to make. that never really made sense even in january 2020 when it was agreed but a lot has happened since then. there has been a pandemic, a semiconductor shortage. it makes even less sense now. i think the problem is it becomes more of a stumbling block than a foundation stone of the talks. so, really, it should be cleared out at this point. haslinda: david, the argument is made that holding beijing's feet to the fire in this issue is necessary to accelerate the market economy. also moving manufacturing to the u.s. david: sure. it is worth bearing in mind,
u.s. exports to china over the past 12 months, they are as healthy as they have been in any time in the last 10 years. excluding what happened last year. in terms of moving china to the market economy, one way i suggest that it wouldn't be a good way to do that is to say your economy has to direct an extra $200 billion of trade flows as we come into a governmental treaty. also, one of the keys of the biden approach is to get other allies on board in terms of pressing china on some of these trade issues. the easiest way for china to fulfill this deal is to buy planes from boeing and airbus. yvonne: we talk about how both presidents are coming from a position of strength, but who do you think has the upper hand here? stephen: it is tough to say who has the upper hand. they both want to see, as china
said in state media, even the foreign ministry spokesperson saying they want to get this relationship back on the right track. they say this is a critical crossroads in the relationship. obviously, xi jinping domestically has never been stronger. we have not seen as strong as a leader like this since the days of mao zedong or the years after the death of mao zedong. biden, a rocky road for his first year in office. he does have the wind in his sales from the infrastructure built, but it was hard -- bill, but it has been hard-fought. he's been battered even in his own party. it depends on what perspective you are coming from who has the position of strength. it seems as though they know each other, they will try to develop a relationship. i don't think it will be the kind of friendly relationship like when a former chinese
president wore a cowboy hat. a summit with bill clinton. reagan had good relationships with the chinese leadership. it is a different game now. china is a bigger, bigger player on the global stage, a figure economy and bigger military. haslinda: one could hope better relations between the two is good for the rest of the world. stephen engle, our chief international correspondent for north asia, and our columnist, david. let's bring in new york strategist at td securities. how closely are you watching the relationship, talks between the two sides? how do you think politics will play out? >> good morning. i think clearly, as you have just been talking about, it is very important especially after the acrimony that took place in alaska sometime back. it does seem like a warmer
beginning this time. whenever we get to see any resolution of concrete issues, from the market perspective, that will probably be focused on trade and tariffs and subsidies and intellectual property rights. it seems unlikely we will really make progress. this is good, the two leaders are face-to-face virtually. it is unlikely we come out of this with anything concrete to chew on. especially if anyone is expected to see any reduction in tariffs on china. i think this is a point of leverage from the u.s. perspective. it is unlikely that will change anytime soon. yvonne: we have seen inflows into chinese equities as well as bonds at a pretty record pace this year. do you think that is likely to last? mitul: i think the reality is we will continue to see inflows. china's index inclusions on the bond and equity side sort of guarantees and inflow of money
into a portfolio perspective into china. the question is at what pace? we saw some slowdown in recent months, so there has been some concern despite the bond index inclusions that the regulatory measures that have been put in place and other measures in china, like the weakening growth outlook, perhaps that has tarnished some of the attraction of equity markets to some extent. and that is why you may have seen some slowing in inflows. we still think china will benefit from a relatively strong inflow in the next year. when you add that to a healthy current position and robust flows, the position of china remains very robust and that continues to put the rnb under upward pressure and result in some sort of resistance from china. neither a weaker fixing but some intervention but we may see
more on that front. haslinda: goldman looking at sub 5% growth for china in 2022. mitul, hang tight. he's sticking around. plus, how singapore is navigating -- at the bloomberg new economy forum. his views tomorrow with us. yvonne: looking forward to that. let's get to the first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: thank you. president biden has promised americans is new infrastructure bill will improve their lives. the president signed the measure at a white house ceremony. national economic council director ryan dietz will guide it. recent polls suggest americans feel optimistic about the state of the u.s. economy, particularly inflation. pres. biden: you have heard countless speeches and promises. but today, you are finally
getting it done. my message to the american people is this -- america is moving again and your life is going to change for the better. vonnie: oil reversed losses after another day without an announcement from the biden administration on u.s. reserves. the president is facing increased pressure from his own party for rising gasoline prices. saudi arabia and the united arab emirates signals opec cuts will continue to be focused on its plans to raise outlook. kaiser group starting to talk on it 30 day grace period. the shenzhen based developer had coupon payments worth about $90 million worth last week. sources say investors have yet to receive any funds by the end of monday. shares were suspended in hong kong. the company is trying to sell
assets to raise cash. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haslinda: still ahead, more calls for a faster fed taper. td security strategist mitul shares his outlook. yvonne: we will have more from mitul. and look at india's steady recovery from the pandemic. this is bloomberg. ♪
real, but most of the evidence seems to be temporary, even though they are real and people have to pay it. the challenge is if we overreact by saying which change the path of monetary policy to try to deal with the one-time affect, that could lead to a worse long-term outcome for the economy. >> it has been slow to start the taper. they said we will not start the taper until we make substantial progress. now, the taper will not be completed until june of next year. that is a very slow path given the economic information we are seeing. by locking themselves in this way, i think they have doubled down on being late. >> the recovery continues and supply bottlenecks unwind, we can expect the price pressure on goods and services to normalize gradually. as a result, we still see
inflation moderating in the next year, but it will take longer to decline than we had originally expected. haslinda: key voices weighing in on what else, inflation. yvonne: i think it is getting more and more. let's bring in mitul, strategist at td securities. it seems like you have the fed versus some of these former fed officials going against each other when it comes to inflation. i have to wonder, do you think the fed is behind a curve and at risk of making a policy mistake, or is the market just re-overreacting? mitul: we think the markets are overreacting. our view is that the fed will not hike rates until late in 2023. we are well behind in that sense compared to the market pricing which is pretty much pricing a
hike by the middle of next year. in that sense, we would like to own the front end of the curve because we think it is too rich compared to what has been priced in now. a lot of that is on the premise inflation is -- supply pressure issues, whether it is rentals or auto pricing, all of this stuff will come off next year. in the near term, inflation numbers are high. that is keeping markets on edge and volatility high as well. the real question is not right now on when the fed hikes, but it is tapering. we just heard from a few fed officials highlighting this. the fed will be more aggressive on the face of fed tapering. yvonne: what would do to markets? with the dollar continued to go up alongside yields? mitul: we would be bullish on
the dollar if that is the case. risk assets, equities more negative given that will mean less liquidity, less buying of bonds and you can see more bond volatility and yields pushed higher as well. i understand why the fed is taking more of a gradual stance in the $15 billion the month of tapering. nevertheless, given where financial conditions are and where the growth picture is at the moment, there is a strong argument for aggressive tapering. haslinda: this is still a data dependent fed, right? u.s. retail sales coming out shortly. how important is this data? how will it show where the fed goes from here? mitul: it is important. alongside the inflation numbers -- we know inflation was at decade highs. we saw the 6.2% on the cbi which
sent a few shock waves to the markets. for retail sales, we will probably see a strong number. our forecast is at least 1.1% gain. a lot of that will be due to price effects. real sales will actually be under some pressure. the fed will need to look through these price effects to determine exactly what is happening with consumer spending. the picture may not look as rosy as the headlines will suggest. yvonne: what does it mean for e.m.? it seems like the trade seems to be diminishing. where does it look better? mitul: it is diminishing. partly, the victim of higher u.s. yields and costs reducing the attraction. we have seen several central banks hike rates. outside of asia, mexico, brazil, for instance. india, hungary and poland. south africa may hike this week. there is still some opportunities to carry the high-yielding countries. we're bullish on the likes of
the brl. even in asia, the rupia, we are still constructive. we don't think it has died away completely but it may look less attractive as yields continue to push higher in the u.s. yvonne: mitul, thank you. setting the pace of the recovery in china with plenty of big-name guests at the bloomberg new economy forum. the founding manager partner, gary reichel. haslinda: next, look at the top morning calls. analyst recommendations. msci pretty flat right now but an outperform are right now with news it will be reopening to more destinations. keep it with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ yvonne: you are watching bloomberg markets: asia. time for some morning calls with sophie kamaruddin. copper rising with the base metals. are they focused on the summit? sophie: take a look at the pathway for copper. price is a $9,700. we have seen the spread narrowing as we see inventory finally picking up for multi-decade lease in london. capital economics, a note on a strong supply response underway in copper markets. earlier in the ship, we have the ivanhoe founder talking about the boost to production as their new copper mine in congo is going to be starting production. when it comes to then -- look for the broader industry, more miners will be enticed by the elevated prices we are seeing in copper. this after the mining industry
was hampered by strikes, covid, and poor weather. capital economics is cautioning copper demand will ease by china's slowing construction activity and the global shift from goods to services demand. we do have this view that copper prices will fall going into next year. goldman does see markets balancing at about 12,000 next year. haslinda: looking at the -- easing after testing 1183 this morning. what is the outlook according to morgan stanley? sophie: they are still bearish on the korean won. they do anticipate less volatility given the scale of outflows. flipping the board, morgan stanley does the downsized risks for south korea with elections being a factor along with some policy actions around industries like real estate and corporate
underway. morgan stanley has trimmed their end 2022 target by 3000 points. they have also changed the sector allocation with health care and utilities getting an upgrade, while industrials were lowered for south korean stocks. yvonne: sophie kamaruddin, markets reporter on the morning calls. market bond yields continuing the selloff. we look at the u.s. 10 year, back to around 1.6%. we have stabilized a bit. talking about the 10 year government bonds. we have seen yields picking up. china 10 year yield, 2.92%. we have seen a positive tone surrounding the xi and biden summit and you are seeing chinese assets look pretty good. take a look at equities, csi 300 up. the offshore and onshore. we are seeing some decent strength. 6.37 for your onshore right now.
also when it comes to a little reluctance from the pboc to step in to slow down the appreciation we have seen in the currency. that is certainly helping today. we have every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10.
vonnie: 10:29, new york. i'm vonnie quinn. the rba says inflation is different from any other advanced economies with consumer price gains in the picture. the ministers at the central bank's november meeting sages disabuse universe to the inflation forecast have widened. and how wages responded to very low unemployment. twoo forme -- two former fed
president says that they will have to change their rate to 3% to keep inflation in check. they tell bloomberg it is possible the fed funds rate will go as high as 4%. former new york fed chief said markets are underestimating the pace and scope of hikes. think of england governor andrew bailey has hit back at critics accusing them of misleading markets before this month's rate decision. he told lawmakers on the treasury committee that investors took a conditional statement on the direction of interest rates and turn them into unconditional views of the world. the boe has rates unchanged at its november 4th meeting. it is said to have missed bond payments. the developer had coupon payments worth about $90 million due last week, plus sources say investors have yet to receive any funds by the end of monday.
price of shares have suspended in hong kong. the company is trying to sell assets to raise cash. jp morgan's ceo jamie dimon has added to the criticism of hong kong's quarantine rules. he made a comment after arriving in the city and skipping several requirements that would require him to stay three weeks and it is a good hotel. a survey of financial firms said they are contemplate moving staff or functions out of hong kong. >> this is a very huge bank with key business in hong kong. he needs to come to hong kong for business for a day or so. his activity was restricted camesa entire trip was restricted. therefore the risk was considered marginal. vonnie: global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haslinda: thank you so much.
we check on where markets it out of japan. up 0.3%. as you know, japan has been a lackluster performer this year. it has prompted a massive buyback for the likes of softbank. the hang seng up by 1%. gains for the cost be rational marginal -- are rather marginal, 0.1%. inflation concerns are front and center. as we talk about inflation and brent crude suring upwards -- surging upwards by 1%. talk about u.s. coal hitting 12 year highs adding to inflation concerns and gold by 0.2% after sinking lower on the inflation. yvonne: we have more on the oil markets and we bring in sharon in singapore. the oil market is a limo. where waiting to see if the u.s. will release strategic reserves.
what do you think would prompt a move to the market? >> oil is heading upwards this morning. it has been moving up and down about five dollars a barrel in the last few weeks. as it waits for a decision from the biden administration on what it wants to do with supply. the oil that biden -- has caused producers to ramp up faster since it's fighting inflation and prices are really escalating at the pump. the most likely scenario -- may be even a ban on u.s. crude exports. still have not heard anything on what is likely to happen. the u.s. administration say they are putting all options on the table. some analysts are even speculating a potential deal between the u.s. and iran nuclear talks saying that is a more sustainable option. says it will enable iran to supply the market with oil.
before the u.s. put sanctions on iran, it was one of the top producers of oil. haslinda: opec rejecting the biden request to ed morse applying to the market. are they sticking -- his request to add more oil to the market. sharon: they are not changing their stance at the moment and we heard russia say that there is no shortage of oil in the market and that they would rather there would be could -- there could be a surplus early next your. russia said that the nation will be able to ramp up its production to pre-pandemic levels. as the market needs allow them to do so. so, it looks like opec+ is not going anywhere with this decision. russia added to the other opec producers that are pushing back against the push from the u.s. and other key customers.
haslinda: sharon cho in the lion city. energy trading -- any relief from the u.s. strategic petroleum deserve full not fundamentally impact prices. we got an outlook at a conference in abu dhabi. >> we're pretty much caught up with 2019. so, industrial demand has recovered well and is exceeding where we were in 2019. transport demand is still a little bit behind. people are moving around but people are not moving around quite as much still on airplanes. so, jet fuel demand is still lagging the 2019 levels and that is the main difference. we have got industrial demand exceeding 2019 and jet fuel demand bringing it back to about even. then, when you look forward, you begin to look forward into 2022.
clearly, demand is going to carry on increasing, industrial growth is there. there are some headwinds which we can talk about but industrial demand growth is there. people are getting back to more normal patterns in their lives. both in their personal transport and their international travel. we've got a reasonably optimistic view of demand for next year. >> where does that leave oil prices in the conversations that i have been having throughout the day with the ceo's and ministers around whether we are going to see $100 oil again. how sustainable that is. i'd like you to weigh in on that. >> there is always a chance we could get to $100, but there are many factors on both sides of the equation. and as we go to winter, we are, we're having these 400 increments from opec each month, which is helping to reduce the stock draws we have been
experiencing this year which will slowly take away the momentum of oil prices in my opinion, but clearly, there is a lot of potential for winter demand. there is a lot of potential for switching from other commodities, particularly gas, because of the gas situation in europe and in the far east in terms of its cost. to use oil as an energy source. which means there could be a pret decentt winter demand, whichy, that demand picture is pretty robust. and throughout the course of 2022, supply isn't expected to grow significantly outside of non-opec. there is a little bit of growth in the u.s. the cards remain pretty much in the hands of the opec haslinda: -- the opec+ group in terms of how much oil they want to
release to the market. our expectation is that that is their strategy and their trajectory, so prices should be reasonably supportive for next year as well. yvonne: and that was russell hardy speaking to bloomberg at the conference. coming up, india -- the head of research joining us for a look at the country's steady recovery from the pandemic. this is bloomberg. ♪
yvonne: we take a look at a live picture onto -- out of mumbai. a lot of questions about inflation what it means for economies like india. wholesale prices rose to a five-month high in october and increases in fuel costs, manufacture. what about the concerns of rising inflation pressures for firms which are trying to pass on the rising cost to consumers as domestic demand takes up -- picks up. haslinda: what will be rbi do now ? we bring in indranil sen gupta, an economist.
he spent a decade at the reserve bank of india. you are a good one to be speaking to. what will the rbi do? can it afford to keep rates lower for longer >> yeah. i think the rbi will retain its stance but continue to withdrawal liquidity. which they have already begun to do. the cash reserve ratio. they have introduced more aggressive-- corporations. with the majority of the banks. we think they will be more aggressive -- for now. from april we think the rbi begins to raise rates. we see 100 basis points in the next fiscal year, which is 2022. point is that the threshold
growth of maximizing inflation for india is somewhere around 5.5%. so, i don't personally think that over the next two years inflation will be interrupting that. haslinda: how do you think this will impact sentiment on the ground in terms of investment and in terms of demand? indranil: so, i think that, i would read it two ways. the first is that when you keep interest rates low, when you keep lending rates low, you. support demand we had a data survey where 70% of the respondents say they see lending rates is the key reason for taking loans. so that is one point. on the other hand, -- higher oil prices -- the consumer -- and
affect demand. now that the government has begun to factor in those prices. finally, i would say that we had a good trough. we will also get some support from -- yvonne: we have seen when it comes to high-frequency indicators that there is momentum coming back into the economy, but then again, you take a look at some of the pain that persists in the rural areas. i we likely going to see a two speed economy indranil: well, i think that i know, given the good harvest. rural areas should do well for now. we have to see what happens -- obviously, india and the whole world had to face this covid shock. now the numbers have gone down, so hopefully we have -- we will see the economy develop. haslinda: government spending.
yvonne: we saw a key contributor in terms of supporting growth during the pandemic. that seems to be slowing down a bit. if you take a look at the government data when it comes to these very robust revenue collections. but they seem to be saving that for a rainy day. do you expect expenditure to pick up? indranil: i think that you cannot have that kind of fiscal expenditure that you had let's year. -let- last year. last year was an exceptional year. we have to reduce last year's level is liquidity picks up. to an extent as we go along, you will see that we had a big -- and there were these pressures. as you start to recover, obviously, you will see this process going away to some extent. haslinda: having said that, what about growth in 2022? is government spending and slow
down or pent demand expected to slow down? the economy, what will keep it afloat? indranil: lending rates remain very low. we think they will support -- in 2022. of course, the rbi will tighten, but then the data -- rates are so low that lending rates will take some time to react to that. that i think will be a major driver -- going into next year. haslinda: how concerned are you -- there's consumer optimism in the indian markets testing new highs. how concerned are you that perhaps there is an over exuberant among investors who are perhaps -- perhaps may not be prepared for slowdown in india's growth? indranil: let me answer at two levels again. number one, it is true that
valuations are high. and then they are high -- india trades at a premium to emerging markets. that is something it always has. so, yes, all over the world stockmarket have gone up. and we need to see whether there is a valuation correction that happens. so that is number one. number two, we need to get india -- when you say that growth wil l remain higher than almost any other, even though -- this has been a year -- then has -- that is number one. number two, the rbi has built up huge reserves. to that extent, we have stability. that answer should be in india.
so, i would think that, yes, markets are -- where they are. we will see when there is a correction, if and when there is a correction, but in that context i would say that india -- is better than the rest of the world. and even higher, the rupee will outperform india's typical year end. haslinda: thank you so much for your time. india economist and head of research indranil sen gupta. let's do a check on the indian markets, been trading two. now it does seem like stocks are under pressure. red across the board. we're keeping track of introglobe aviation, down by 0.7%. despite the rest of the world opening up, it will be slower for india. we have the nifty bank index coming down by 0.4%.
finance in focus, rated a new buy. and securities with the target of 8700 rupees. yvonne: we are live on the fourth annual bloomberg new economic form where has is in singapore this week. discussions among world leaders. featured back-to-back interviews as well. a line up of top ceo's. here is just a few of them. this is bloomberg. ♪
haslinda: singapore is opening up travel lanes to more countries as it tries to -- to reclaim its status as a trouble hub. we have 12 cities. it has been expended by the -- expanded by the end of the month. by the first week of december, we'll have uae and dubai, we are reclaiming the title as the international travel hub. bear in the mind, we held that title for eight years. yvonne: we got a give it to, right, has. and so we hope you are booking your flight soon, because that is a lot of places you can go. we will hear from the airlines.
sing air. cathay pacific is another story but following the trend that we are seeing globally but certainly a lot of questions around them, at least hong kong, these crewmembers and whether they should be quarantined. that's something that has been centered around cathay pacific and the pilot that did contract covid. what we're looking at more of is singapore. let's talk about that with our senior medical reporter. is singapore fully back? >> singapore is not fully back yet, but of course what we are seeing from the government there is that they are committed to reopening to the rest of the world. we're seeing these countries like indonesia and india which had huge covid outbreaks, which was really a concern for the world, the delta infection came from india and yet singapore is saying we are ready to get back in there, ready to open back up. they are doing it very slowly and carefully and want to make sure they do not seek -- a see surge of infections.
haslinda: the thing is, cases are rising just yesterday -- before that it was 2000 plus. is it a problem? michelle: the government did say explicitly when they were announcing increase in the travel reopening that they expect more cases to come, and that makes sense because we are going to get adding people and from different areas. some of them are inevitably going to be caring coronavirus. what the city is saying is they believe that their high vaccination rate will keep those outbreaks under control and they won't see an increasing number of severe deaths. and they know that they will have to take some risk in reopening, they are trying to make sure they do it more slowly especially when they are allowing people within the city to get out and mingle with each other and as -- add theii reopenin to other places they are trying to keep it in
control. yvonne: there was one story in hong kong. jamie dimon. why does he get a pass? michelle: there are still some exceptions when you are big enough and important enough you're able to get into hong kong. it is an interesting question if jamie dimon had to make any kind of concessions to hong kong which is still primarily -- focused on reopening with china and was to make sure it does not do anything to create a problem for that relationship. going forward, hopefully we will see some more opening in hong kong, fingers crossed. yvonne: thank you so much for that. haslinda: the senior medical reporter. of course, don't miss that fourth annual bloomberg new economy forum happening live here throughout the week. we will share face-to-face discussions on topics ranging from everything, finance, trade, climate, cities -- andfrom
dubai. manus, yeah, starting from the first week of december, you won't be able to do any quarantines, no testing. you can fly direct. that's good news. two years ago we met and we had some henry kissinger saying that china could be on the foothills of a cold war. and here we are with xi jinping and joe biden speaking. manus: it is a timely moment. we will have ian bremmer and the estrone trade minister. this is the fulcrum of 2021, which is one of the guardrails that joe biden wants to establish. how forceful will they be established? there are many areas of conflict between the and china, but from the tonality going into this, biden's says he once to find common ground but i was drawn to -- the lines about the
rules-based process the world needs to live by. then we can interpret that. for example we have the trade minister from australia. how is his spat going with the chinese iron ore prices are on the floor. we will have the political prism analyzed by ian bremmer and a number of other politicals from government. you'll be catching up with the dignitaries in singapore. how are asian governments managing that? because the ramifications are really quite profound and i think you and yvonne talking about covid, you look at the asian covid story versus the british and the americans, 2022 is going to be about booster shots. what are you doing to deliver higher booster shots? we're going to talk a lot about -- covid. haslinda: when you talk about normalization a lot of the issues come to the fore. we have rich versus poor and how the world will look like
post-pandemic. manus: the wealth gap is going to be debated. there are serious increases in the united kingdom whether it is your national insurance contribution or around europe and that is causing conflict especially -- in dubai, there is a big piece we will talk about from j.p. morgan. they talk about the tailwind. the potential tailwind from the reduction in tariffs between china and united states of america and that potentially is a compelling tailwind that can uplift -- that plus fiscal and perhaps you get a bull market in 2022 maybe. haslinda: lots of question. manus looking forward to making sure they have it. a snapshot of what we can expect in the next three days. yvonne: i'm -- to see manus in the lion city. glancing and upside when it comes to -- we are seeing it
announcer: from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide, in silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology with emily chang. emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." in the next hour, president biden promises change for the better with his new infrastructure law coming at a precarious political moment as polls show overwhelming pessimism across the u.s. about the economy. we will break down the detls