tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 8, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EST
>> the markets are pricing in inflation, which is going to be with us for some time. >> we are moving towards inflation is the risk for markets. >> we are in the process of normalization, but it is painfully slow. >> inflation risk seems to be persisting for much longer than anyone forecasted. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting your trading week started this morning. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, could morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. your equity market advancing about 0.1%. this feel that came out of last week continues. lisa: progrowth, yet you are not seeing it in the bond market. we have been talking all morning, how much are we
bringing the future growth back into the equity market and pricing it in now? what is the path from here? that is where you get the real divergence among strategists. jonathan: as you say, the equity market telling you one thing for you looking -- telling you one thing. looking at the bond market, the jobs report was interesting. lisa: what we heard is we don't know. we don't understand the recovery of this market, as well as the economists. we will see. jonathan: what i heard is plug in your own forecast and make your mind up. that is what you heard? lisa: absolutely. which is why they stuck with their trade. we did see people diminishing the idea of rate hikes. i did not understand why, especially in the dynamism of that report. jonathan: tom keene is off today. matt miller's on the scene.
he will return shortly. lisa: is it us? [laughter] jonathan: it is something about that chair. your equity market positive 0.03%. yields higher to 1.4 860%. euro-dollar, $1.1572. and crude, wti $82.61, at one point up 1.65%. lisa: -- we do get some kind of release from the strategic petroleum reserve. how much are they going to focus on an economy that is still highly bissett by shutdowns? we are seeing some of the price is a producer products that have been rising at the fastest pace in 26 years. how much do they recognize this? also today, fed speakers are back after the quiet period.
six fed officials expected to speak, including fed chair jay powell and vice chair rich clarida. how are they going to talk about producer price increases in the united states? the cpi we will see probably rise at the fastest pace going back to 1990, coming on wednesday. today we are going to see some bond sales. the u.s. is selling $56 billion of three your notes today, setting off a cascade of options. how much are people going to reprice the front end after taking a look at what happened last week and deciding, didn't really make sense, or are we looking at a new arab -- a new paradigm? jonathan: why is he so against treasuries apply -- treasury supply? lisa: because he's always napping at one a click p.m. jonathan: that makes -- at 1:00 p.m. jonathan: that makes sense. matt miller is done napping and
he is back with us. matt: so tesla -- first of all, i agree with tom on treasury auctions. what a snooze. but i cover them every day, live at 1:00 p.m. on bloomberg television jonathan: there is the promo. [laughter] matt: this isn't a bad drop, almost 6%. but we are talking about a $1 trillion company here. if the founder is going to sell 10% of his stake, he softened the blow by tweeting about it over the weekend. everybody was following this. it seems like the people have helped him do this. they voted that he can sell his stake, and no you don't have to see such a huge drop in the shares. jonathan: a listener just wrote in, "did you put miller in the timeout chair for some of the crazy stuff he is saying this morning?" [laughter] matt: it could work. jonathan: is that the tees for
later this morning? matt: i know the people who watch this show care deeply about monetary policy, and i didn't mean to offend. lisa: do you think that is what it was? jonathan: i am guessing -- matt: i am guessing. jonathan: on a franchise that talks about baseball, you can't switch the focus. matt: baseball is really fascinating. jonathan: sarah hunt joins us now of alpine woods. romans ax had a 47 -- goldman sachs had a 4700 year end price target. ubs comes out with their goal for next year, looking for 4850. it is a little more than 3%. the consensus seems to be muted price gains from here. do you share that? sarah: if you look at the last several years, if we kept covid out of it, you would say
everyone has said we are pulling forward price appreciation, and therefore you are going to have a time of smaller returns. so far that hasn't happened yet. at some point that could change, but right now it has not changed. to lisa's point earlier, we still don't have an alternative. you have a lot of money out there looking for a home. even if we start to pull back on the taper in the u.s., if rates go higher, you have a lot of money that needs someplace to go . lisa: so in other words, what is the right paradigm that can keep equities grinding higher at paces that seem similar to what we have seen over the past few years while not heading into resection? -- into recession? sarah: rates don't seem to be moving much yet. we will see what happens. i think that saying they would
be able to adjust one way or the other was not a bad way for the fed to try to do no harm which to something everyone was looking for. so you have to continue to see some growth in earnings and revenue, and if that starts to slow, i think you have a bigger problem. the inflation picture looks very robust at the moment, but if that starts to back off and that i'll gives you some room to move -- that also gives you some room to move. some of those shortages are easing, so it is really going to depend on whether or not you can continue to thread that needle between we still have growth and rates are still low. if you start to get higher inflation and slowing growth, that is going to be much trickier for equity markets to continue to perform. matt: if we do have economic growth and inflation slows down, don't you expect the fed to try and raise rates before the end of 2022? don't they want to get some liftoff if it is economically feasible? sarah: i think they want to raise rates, but how much can
they raise them, and what is the long end of the curve going to do? you have to see some real robust growth for much higher rates to be acceptable. to the extent that most governments have put out so much more debt than they had before, how far can rates go? you can't go back to seeing 6% on the 10 year, the world that most of us grew up in, because that it very expensive for governments to fund. i think the expedition that rates are going to stay lower for longer is more likely to be the case going forward. lisa: the environment you are portraying seems to give an argument more for big tech to keep the lead in terms of driving gains rather than value, rather than some of the russell 2000, the smaller reopening stocks a lot of people are betting. would you agree, or do you think they are correct in the cyclicals at this moment? sarah: i think it has to be embracing the power of both at the moment. even though you may see some pickup and rates, i think the
growth is still there. on the other hand, a lot of the small and big caps that are not involved can you do to do pretty well. some of the value stocks can also do pretty well. if we look at hewlett-packard, i'd spot a new printer. you are going to keep having this stuff at home. it is not going to be the secular decline we had prior. so i think people will so there's actually a decent story here going forward, but i don't that that means you rotate out of tech entirely. if i want to see the parts of the market there are going to act well, it is going to keep shifting. jonathan: thank you. sarah want of alpine woods. do you want my rant about printers, lisa? why can we still not make a reliable printer in 2021? why do they always break? matt: i've got to say, i always
have trouble with the printer. every time i use it. but i also feel like we need to use printers less unless, right? jonathan: they just break. lisa: they do. honestly, trying to put the roll of ink and proves to be a quagmire each time. jonathan: printer ink is a mafia scam, according to someone who just wrote in. matt: they never connect to the network is also a problem for me. jonathan: are we done with printers? is that sorted? [laughter] lisa: i think we are done. jonathan: next year, i want to -- to talk about this economy, to talk about this market. on the muted returns you can expect from this equity market next year, i just wonder if that is going to be the consensus view coming into next year, and whether this obsession over the backend and a return to trend distracts us from re-acceleration in the near term that we are seeing potentially in the american economy. lisa: the uncertainty with
respect to real wages, how much are wages going up relative to the inflation that we are seeing , and how does that change next year? to me, that is the intro to whether we see accelerating growth or a return to something more can to what we have seen in the past few years. jonathan: bank of america wrote about this over the weekend. how does the fed balance the rising wages we are seeing with the lack of growth in the participation rate? what does that mean for policy? lisa: no one has the real answer. people are waiting. jonathan: matt, we used a for that one? matt: if we continue talking wages. [laughter] jonathan: your appearance is conditional. ok. matt miller sticking with us at least for the next 10 minutes. from york city, on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: the pentagon plans to place as much is $2 billion in
rush orders by early march for custom semiconductors used in weapons like the b-2 bomber. global foundries have sold the you new york -- the new york state foundries. president biden and his party notched a big economic victory with the passage of a bipartisan book works bill. now he wants to sell americans on the merits of the new spending as they face rising prices for fuel, food and housing. the president is set for a tour to promote legislation, including both red and blue states, and will both local and national tv appearances. protesters rallied in glasgow over the weekend as the cup 26 summit kicked off. -- the cop-26 summit kicked off. former president barack obama is set to speak at the event today.
elon musk's social media followers have voted that he should sell tempers into his stakes after recent discussions on unrealized gains to support paying taxes. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
i wish the house would have moved earlier, but i was who would have spent less time looking about topline numbers and more time talking about what's in it. jonathan: that was senator mark warner, the democrat from virginia, speaking on cnn. alongside lisa abramowicz and matt miller, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p advancing 0.07%, up 2% on the week last week. this forecast from ubs, i keep thinking about it. we've got the likes of credit suisse and others up at around 5k for year end next year. just 6% upside from here from the team over at ubs for the next two years. lisa: michael purves of tallbacken coming out and saying he sees 5% by year end.
what we see a slowing growth backdrop? that is a scenario people see. they keep things chugging along. jonathan: eps growth to slow to 13 but 1% from a gain of 51.6% estimated in 2021. matt, you said earlier in the program, who cares about the fed? when it comes to the equity market, it has been a big earnings story. matt: i think the earnings growth figure is really key because as the comps get more difficult, you will not get the same kind of growth we will have from a total lockdown during the pandemic last year, but still, 13.1% isn't bad. compared to 50%, it doesn't sound like too much, but that is really good growth over a year like this. don't forget what kind of gains we have seen because at the end
of 2018, we have come a long way already. jonathan: there's a big difference between peak profits and peak profit growth which i think is the point you are trying to make this morning. emily wilkins joins us now, bloomberg government in d.c. let's start with a big win for the president, a big win for the white house. emily: this is absolutely what president biden needed after last week, that crushing loss for democrats in virginia, how close the race was in new jersey, really just losses all over the country. he spoke to house members and said you need to vote for this bipartisan infrastructure bill, and they did. they took the vote. 13 republicans joined them, although a number of progressives actually voted against the bill because they did not also pass that social welfare and tax bill. they did take a procedural vote that moves us a little bit closer to that bill's passage.
we are going to be continuing social welfare and tax bill, potentially up until the end of the year, but at this point president biden is going to take that infrastructure bill and run with it. he's planning on traveling with it. his cabinet is planning on promoting it as much as they can at this point. lisa: president biden said we could start to see some of these infrastructure plans go into effect in that its couple of months. emily: it is a pretty ambitious timeline. they are looking for federal funding to really get them underway. for the lawmakers i spoke with on friday, they said this will become really notable in the springtime, when construction season starts back up.
for a lot of it, they are not creating new programs. they don't need to spend a lot of time adjusting things and writing the rules. they are using programs that are already in place, and that means they can get the money out there pretty quickly, and people can start seeing various impacts as soon as next spring. matt: what are the chances now that we see the build back better bill pass? emily: at this point there's deafly momentum for them to pass. there was concern that they could not get the social bill across the line, but much more work has been done on this. various provisions have been set. lawmakers felt comfortable enough moving forward with infrastructure, confident they will be able to get to get the build back better plan done. that is key for democrats because they are going to be
facing very tough midterms in terms of health care, and terms of climate. democrats believe that is ultimately going to help them make the case to voters next november. matt: will they raise the soft limit that president trump put input -- the salt limit that president trump put in place? emily: if they don't, they might not be able to pass the bill. there are a number of lawmakers who have said we will not vote for a social welfare and tax plan if it does not include some sort of relief for their constituents who have been hit hard by the salt cap republicans put in place. jonathan: we have to expect senator sanders to water that down somewhat. emily: that provision is very much still in flux right now. paid family leave, expect that to potentially change. all of these parts of the bill, we have to see what the house winds up passing.
there's a sense on capitol hill that it will get changed when it gets to senator manchin and kyrsten sinema's hands. what we are waiting for now in the houses and actual score from the congressional budget office that will tell lawmakers what to think. for these moderate democrats to be able to go to their constituents and say it is not going to contribute to inflation, it is not going to contribute to the national debt. jonathan: emily wilkins, thank you. this president has done something -- we have congresswoman alexandria ocasio-cortez for some cold water over that. lisa: you have the centrist and
increasingly, the centrist party is getting bigger, as evidenced by the centrist party in the united states. how do you dovetail these hugely differing views into policy and then tell consumers what the can expect to see? it is highly difficult for both parties right now. jonathan: we've seen the president struggling with independents. matt: but this infrastructure is something that had to get past. if you travel around the world and compare u.s. infrastructure to infrastructure and other countries, you realize we are sorely lacking in terms of roads and airports, and we really need to spend more money and get a competitive edge that is lost. jonathan: you know what i get really upset? the trains in switzerland. just a beautiful thing.
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jonathan: seven-day winning streak on the s&p 500 going into monday. here's the price action. muted news this morning on the nasdaq. the russell with a tiny lift, up 0.4%. the outlooks starting to pour in from wall street. their 6% upside for the next two years. we can discuss a little bit later. that's the equity story. lisa has important questions about this bond market. two's, tens, and 30's. we talk a lot about the twos. the hands right now up by three basis points to one point 37 90%. why did yields head and the other direction after that really nice payrolls upside surprise?
lisa: some people have said perhaps that has to do with the fed hiking sooner and then being made mistake, hiking too soon. that is the takeaway on one read. jonathan: stick with this one. switch up the boarding get to crude. wti come what does the united states do next. wti right now a little bit lower, off session highs. up about 0.5% on the session. you can see the move on the intraday chart. suggesting the president could make an announcement later this week, and he's focused on other tools. the objective, he wants output higher. lisa: he wants that to be more of a match betwee output and
demand heading into the 2022 midterm election. jonathan: it $1.69 on wti. a lot of interesting movers this morning. we say good morning to romaine bostick. romaine: good morning, jon. the president will take to the road to tout the infrastructure bill. that is going to feed through to a lot of names on the market, including caterpillar. this is a $1.2 trillion packet. $550 billion of that is new spending. a calm -- aecom shares up about 3%. united rentals also moving higher on the day. basically everything in the ev charging space getting a boost. there's a lot of provisions in here to expand the rollout of ev charging stations.
flip up the board. let's take a look at bitcoin, crypto coins, up about 4%. higher this morning, largely on the idea that we have reached this new milestone for the crypto space, $3 trillion in market cap. a lot of that coming from bitcoin and a theory him -- and ethereum, both flirting with new record highs. the chinese government may be backing the cracked on that they rolled out in july. twitter says he should sell it. shares down 4%. who knows where this is going? if you are a tesla shareholder these days, you are used to
these type of questions. jonathan: romaine bostick coming up on "the close" a little later. that stock is lower, though matt, you have said you don't think that is the move. matt: it is a $1.22 trillion company, and just a couple of weeks ago was an $800 billion company, so they have made massive moves to the upside on just the idea that hertz will buy model threes without even signing a contract. i think he tweeted that to soften the blow. jonathan: i am still trying to figure out what that story is about with tesla. lisa: the idea that they came out, they are buying tesla cars, tesla said it is premature, they said actually we have already started getting deliveries of tesla cars, and then we got all
sorts of reporting that they were in talks to ramp up the deliveries. i don't know what you make of that either, except that elon musk continues to defy regulators with some of his tweets and comments that seem outside of regulatory oversight. jonathan: let's get to george survey lists out of london. always good to catch up with you. i want to start with something this morning. what would you make of the bond market move off the back of really solid payrolls data? george: good morning. i thing it is worth taking a step back and looking at this year. you had the highest inflation and 30 years, the fastest growth rates essentially on record, and yet if you take a look at the long end of the u.s. curve, real rates, breakevens, nominal it is
part of this theme that there is something bigger going on in the bond market than just the inflation story. to me it has been a story of excess savings, and i think unless we understand what is going on there, it is going to be very difficult to understand anything else in the market at the moment. lisa: what are some of the theories that you are coming out with, the people are actually spending their savings and we are not seeing a material change in the outlook for yields, at least as portrayed by the bond market? george: you also had the pond conundrum back then, and it ended up being china. i think this new source in the market is essentially the fiscal stimulus we had last year. if you look at what is happened to that, even those saving rates
are a slow concept. what happened to the money that was given last year and payouts? banks are using those deposits and going back and buying fixed income again. when i look at a lot of the flow metrics, they are suggesting a resizing of savings. that is what is keeping asset prices elevated. but then this is also this additional question of where is trend growth. if you look at some indicators, for instance the spread between forward and backward looking consumer confidence metrics, that is suggestive of a very flat curve. so i would say number one, flow. there's huge amount of excess savings in the system. even though we are pricing a lot in the front end, you are really struggling to price the backend. matt: a lot of the excess saving
has gone into crypto. the total market cap cryptocurrencies is now more than $3 trillion. what do you make as chief of ethics research on bitcoin at $66,000? george: crypto is an area we are starting to look at as well. it is a symptom of excess savings in the market, and then of course, we look at the impact of crypto in terms of the structure of payment systems. i think that is probably one of the most underestimated areas or underappreciated areas of crypto, the new development in decentralized finance. they have the potential to change the way the making system looks in 10 years, and we are trying to spend a bit of time understanding that as well. jonathan: let's talk about the pound, sterling against the u.s.
dollar. just looking at our forecasts, forecasted to year-end just north of where we are at the moment. where are you on that currency pair at the moment, given what we heard from governor bailey in the past week? george: we have been negative on the pound since september. you so that massive repricing at the front end, but i key observation here is the repricing was entirely driven by inflation expert patients. real rates in the u.k. have stayed very low. we are worried about the growth outlook in terms of fiscal tightening coming in. of course, you have these new brexit risks. there's a risk that the entire deal unravels. so we maintain a risk. you see cable breaks your new lows in coming weeks. jonathan: can we not do brexit again? i thought we were done with that. at our headquarters in the city of london, too.
do you want to do brexit again? lisa: are you kidding? no one wants to do brexit again. this idea that all of the savings that are at the bank are getting directly recycled into these short-term debt instruments so that we cannot get an increase in that without a material change and growth. we've got something unleashing a look savings. the idea is that the people worth saving are the people who are wealthier, who built their wealth up over the pandemic and are less likely to spend that savings. to me that is such a key point that sometimes get lost. jonathan: how they deploy those what it means. you sound frustrated about not being able to get those goods.
lisa: i had to buy a dishwasher and a marker wave, sort of the apex of the entire issue. i paid a premium to get it quickly. but it was ridiculous. jonathan: everyone's got those personal stories. matt: i was looking at cisa sticks -- at statista's website on what would happened if you voted again, and it looks like they wouldn't happen. jonathan: are you see is icing --are used adjusting we will vote again? you can cover that one. i am so done. and don't take the way i feel about being done with this is a particular view on it. i am just done with it. equity futures up three on the s&p 500. yields higher by three basis points. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word
news, i'm ritika gupta the u.s. is lifting entry restrictions for more than 30 countries, allowing fully vaccinated travelers to fly from places including europe, china, and india. analysts expect lower demand. easing some covid-19 restrictions that were put in place to tackle a surge in infections. singapore is one of the most vaccinated countries in the world. indonesia is in talks to procure pfizer's covid-19 bill. officials want to eventually invest or partner with an indonesian company to make the pills on shore. the company it also mulling whether to extend quarantine requirements to seven days from three.
bnp paribas decided to exit the business. it says it may be -- to support its climate services customers. the unit lost billions in the archegos collapse. employees have three starbucks coffee shops in new york will take ballots this week on whether to unionize. a successful, they would be the first company run stores to recognize unions. they involve only around 100 workers, but have big implications for the company. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ta. this is bloomberg. ♪
we have seen tons of demand, so i would urge people to book now to get good prices because it is filling up very drastically. jonathan: the travel corridor reopens. that was virgin atlantic's ceo shave ice -- ceo shai weiss. congratulations. we have reopened in america. from new york city this morning, good morning. matt miller, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 0.04%. into the bond market, or yields of just a little bit higher after moving lower in friday's session. we are up two or three basis points. a final word on brexit, did you see the meme doing the rounds of the weekend about france and the u.k. 100 years ago fighting for world domination, and now they are fighting over fish? [laughter] how much i think that's how much things have changed -- how much things have changed. lisa: i think in all honesty,
that ship has sailed, no? jonathan: i hope we are done with it, that is my personal view. seven days of gains, five weeks of gains on s&p 500, the longest winning streak of the year so far. matt: the stock market has just been on fire. if you look over the last years, we had three years of gains in which we have almost doubled. we have gone from 2500 at the end of 2018 to almost 4700 right now, so we are almost there. the more interesting thing than that i guess is the forecast that you mentioned. ubs pushes it so far out. they don't think we will hit 5000 until the end of 2023. let's talk a little bit more about the market right now with dave wilson, bloomberg stocks editor. he's got his chart of the day for us. he looks at who could be the richest man in the world, where
he to have made different decisions. dave: absolutely. it is kind of a thought exercise. i was reminded when microsoft passed apple to become the biggest company in the world by market value, i thought back to 1998, which was the time that microsoft first achieved that particular milestone. maybe one of the biggest differences this time around from back then is the effect on the personal wealth of its cofounder and former chairman and ceo bill gates because he had a little bit more than i-20 percent stake in microsoft back in 1998, and if he, rather than diversifying, which he has been doing for the past 20 plus years, and he had kept that holding, it would be worth more than $690 billion right now, twice the net worth of elon musk , whether he shells those tesla shares were not, and more than
three times worth jeff bezos. what it does show is that if these executives hang onto their stock, what it can mean in terms of their value. it is a diversification argument as opposed to the concentration argument, i suppose you could say. you have to run through the numbers. elon musk is one of the biggest shareholders of tesla. bezos at amazon.com, even after his divorce settlement. they have been able to benefit from the run in those shares, and bill gates was largely left behind. the last time we knew what his holding was, it was 1.3% of microsoft act in 2019, before he stepped off the board. matt: he may not have guessed microsoft would be worth $2.5 trillion so soon. dave wilson there, our chief stocks editor. we are going to talk a little
bit about brexit. jonathan: no, i am going to be done on that. i hate marking to market the wealth of these guys. by all means, you take the other side of that. the director of research of bloomberg intelligence. looking at things right now, this bill they have put out, reducing hospitalizations and debts and high list patients by -- high-risk patients, sam fazeli, the numbers look great. is it a game changer? sam: it can be, and thank for having me back on. it has been a while since i saw you. there are certain considerations here. let's not take away the fact that this was a great result. the issue is you have to be tested and then get treated
within the first five days of being positive. the way pcr tests are today, the cost it has in some countries, that may be an issue, but it was also an issue for the merck drug. but still, even if it comes down to 60% or 50%, that is a great result. lisa: one of the reasons why i love speaking with you is because of your deep pharmaceutical knowledge, having been your postdoc in your field -- in the field in your day. will there be even more game changers when it comes to fighting the coronavirus? sarah: i think -- sam: i think the key thing to do is to get our testing right, but also try to get the number of pills down. if you have to take these pills for the five days, it will be 30 pills. the merck one is 40 pills and
five days. if you can bring that down, maybe create a once a day pill or even twice a day, actually combining the mechanisms, you can have really high efficacy. matt: the chances of this virus mutating better or worse? sam: mutating away from the drugs? yes, the risk is there. this one has shown us it has the ability to continue randomly amassing mutations that affect their ability to do what they need to do which is in fact us. it is possible. but a five-day course should be short enough hopefully to avoid that for a while. jonathan: are we going to see you in new york anytime soon? sam: not judging by the prices of flights, even if wonderful bloomberg is paying for me. [laughter] having caught it once, i'm not sure i want to catch it again and have to quarantine somewhere else, with the added hotel bills
for whatever the rules are. jonathan: it is good to see you on the latest with pfizer. the price of those tickets over some key holiday periods are really pricey right now. it is going to dig a few months to normalize those. matt: is that because supply hasn't got back to where it was? jonathan: it is a bit of everything. it's going to be a new year, and i think the virgin atlantic ceo just months ago speaking on bloomberg basically said april 2022 to get back to where we were in 2019. matt: so a long time until prices come back to normal levels. but they were pretty cheap before the pandemic, right? think about what you are doing in terms of your carbon footprint and in terms of how much fuel you are burning. it is an intensive endeavor. jonathan: are you going to stop
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>> the recovery has been kind of delayed with delta, but not derailed. >> we are looking at harder -- we are looking harder at what is maximum employment. >> the labor market is on fire. >> the growth>> over the next couple of quarters is good. >> you have to be humble about the changes it might have inflicted. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: starting other we got all-time highs. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside lisa