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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  November 5, 2021 2:00am-3:00am EDT

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♪ dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. i am dani burger. global yields drop. -- kicks off the rally and bond markets from australia to the u.s. the stay-at-home trade fizzles. peloton shares plunge. uber has his first adjuster
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profit but the stock still falls. crude prices rise. investors await a u.s. response to the modest oil hike from opec-plus. we end the week with a surprise and a global reset in this bond market. this was supposed to be the week that the inflationary hawks were in charge of the show. a surprise from the boe that affected these bond markets. i think dan moss puts it really well in apc published yesterday. if the hawks could not score in london, a cause into serious question the past month's dominant storyline of central banks being pushed around by investors counting on early hikes. we did not get that uniform turned in tighter policy that perhaps many were expecting this week. what has the reaction in markets
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been? it's been a rather across-the-board in this global bond market. we saw everyone from u.s. to australia to the u.k. just rally at the front end of the curve. you are looking at the u.s., you can germany. u.s. five year yields dropping to a three year low. german two-year bond yields falling to the lowest in two months. this move from the boe caused those who are bearish globally to cover their shorts. how long can this rally continue? is this now the bias for bond yields? we have another record for the s&p 500 yesterday, hanging type this morning, a pattern we saw yesterday as well, basically unchanged. also, basically unchanged in your u.s. 10 year yield. we are looking at some pain in iron ore. we have china rising stockpiles in ports, on course for his
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fourth weekly decline. brent up zero point percent. earlier, -- brent up 0.1%. earlier, it was up 1%. let's get into the earnings story. a big question that has been lingering, we have seen this shift from pandemic lifestyle trends. peloton plunged in late trading after it slashed its revenue forecast, struggling to adjust to the post-pandemic recovery. uber also fell, over shadowing its first quarterly profit as a public company. airbnb rose on record sales and earnings which easily be consensus -- beat consensus. joining us live is mliv's mark cudmore. are there any trends we can take away from the sofar? mark: we are in this big
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rotation which has been coming and going throughout the year. even though the work from home idea is losing some traction, as you see with pilot error results -- peloton results. they underestimated demand for its cycles -- overestimated demand for its cycles as people started going back to the office. on the other hand, you have someone like airbnb, who is benefiting. you got this divergence going on as well. underlying all of that, what you have is this same idea that we saw, to some extent, after the pandemic started was that the companies that are well-positioned and are already winners will continue to be so and may just get bigger and bigger, and the losers are going to really -- any slight disappointment and
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the equity traders really punish you. if you are a company who has got it right, you can continue to do extremely well. just look at tesla. it has just gone further and further. because they are at the forefront of some of the tech advances in the vehicle space, they are just doing it extremely well. people are not being put off by the fact that the multiples are so high. that kind of rotation is likely continue right through probably past thanksgiving and towards the end of the year. dani: it really has been remarkable to see how those companies missed getting punished very extensively this quarter. thank you so much. fantastic insight. that is mark cranfield. over to d.c., where the white house says opec and its allies are putting the global economy at risk after the cartel rejected president biden's
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pleas to hike production. opec stuck to its original plan, citing pressure on oil demand from the coronavirus. the u.s. had asked for a hike of at least double that to alleviate some of the heidi cruz prices. let's bring in bloomberg's energy reporter. how are oil markets responding? what options is the u.s. now looking into? >> traders are trying to balance the idea that because opec is not increasing supply as much as places like the u.s. want, there's a lot of tightness in the market. bp thinks that oil demand is back at pre-pandemic levels, more than 100 million barrels a day. . there is a huge supply tightness in the market. the fact that opec didn't boost production more makes it more likely that you see a strategic petroleum reserve release from
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the u.s., or maybe from the u.s. and other nations that are part of the iea, which could push a bunch of barrels into the market and, at least in the near term, help to shorten that supply gap. prices fell yesterday because of that fear but they are rallying a little bit today. traders are waiting for the other shoe to drop, that makes sense. dani: it certainly does. that is bloomberg's energy reporter, dan murtaugh. the first week of the cop26 climate conference is coming to an end. world leaders and companies have reiterated their commitments to combat climate change but concerns still remain about the implication -- implementation of that. greater thunberg warns of great -- greta thunberg warns of greenwashing. we have the week one wrapping. would have the highlights been? -- wrapping up. what have the highlights been?
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maria: what a week we have had at bloomberg. francine lacqua doing a great job. the team on the ground are doing a great job. when you look at everything we have heard for the past week, we've heard from politicians, big government, the industry, greta thunberg also. she has the catch nine that encompasses this whole conference. more action. we are heading into week two. this is the moment where the cameras go away. this is not about the glamour, the speeches, the glitz. this is about the behind the scenes work. whether this cop is successful or not will have to wait until friday. somewhat argue that -- some would argue there is momentum going into this. on friday, we hear the results from this two-week conference. dani: your work not over yet
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with another week to go for cop26. that is maria tadeo in glasgow. we are going to be digging deeper into the markets after that surprise bank of england decision that really caused a reset in these global bond markets. we are going to look at the fallout over oil production and what it means for the global economy. we are going to be speaking to amrita sen from energy aspects. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> two messages. one, we expect there will be a rise in interest rates. two, however, because we condition our forecast on the market curve, as i did point
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out, our forecast suggests by the end of the forecast period, inflation was coming a bit under target. we had an output gap opening up. obviously, that wouldn't be what we are wanting to see. >> if we could go back to markets. it was this, we have to act. at times, you are pretty hawkish. why did you not temper it? at the time, were you not enough worried about growth? gov. bailey: in these conditions, particularly if we are seeing inflation expectations beginning to become active, then we will have to act. >> did markets misread you? is there a communication problem? gov. bailey: nobody in the bank of england, me included, had decided therefore there would be
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a rise in interest rates in november. we would not have said that. i think bloomberg, you published, your economists, and it was pretty balanced on what we were going to do today. >> but the market didn't. gov. bailey: that's interesting thing, isn't it? we pick up quite a lot of commentary which matched your survey. a lot of people saying it's pretty close. yeah, it was pretty close. it is a very, very finely balanced situation. markets -- [indiscernible] as you could tell from the commentary we made today, what direction some bit overdone, a candid view. >> there's quite a lot of traders, when you look at some of the analysts now, that say
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look, if mpc members had not spoken so much over the past month, market pricing would have been aligned with the statement. would mpc remarks to be more valuable if they were less frequent? gov. bailey: well, i do take that with a fair pinch of salt. we get comments at the other times that if the mpc does not speak, then markets get no guide. we don't speak to guide markets. the markets will draw what conclusions they will from what we say. i obviously take that with a fair pinch of salt. what i would say is that i think we have seen a correction in markets from the pricing we saw over the summer particularly. i am not surprised about that. it puzzled me at the time to see that pricing. dani: bank of england governor andrew bailey speaking to bloomberg's francine lacqua. that boe surprise kicked off a
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global bond rally, with traders trimming expectations that policymakers will raise borrowing costs to cool inflation. let's get to the market story. joining us is janet mui, investment manager at brewin dolphin. what we heard from andrew bailey, is this a change of tone from a governor that not too long ago said this is a single signal to the markets that we will begin to raise interest rates? janet: dani, thanks for having me. i don't think the key message has changed. i think the bank of england is still keen to raise interest rates because they are concerned about inflation, especially inflation expectations have gone up a lot. the meeting this month, it has been a close call. i think markets have gotten ahead of their self in pricing
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more rate hikes or earlier rate hikes in the u.k. we have, you know, said that there are still a number of insurgencies for the u.k. coming -- a number of uncertainties for the u.k. economy. there is still no -- we are still waiting for the labor market data. it does not change the fact that they may hike in the next meeting or in the next couple months. dani: of course, this is a global bond market, so this decision to hold did not just affect u.k. markets. we also saw u.s. markets reacting, we saw australian bonds moving, too. does it make sense, this interconnected trade, when at a time we have some interconnected factors in the u.k., especially
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things like brexit, that affect its growth? janet: yes. i do think that the global markets, they have been position for rising interest rates. you can see that in the short-term bond yields across the developed market. i do believe that they have gone a bit too far. because, as i mentioned, there are a number of uncertainties, which is not specific to the u.k. also globally. i mean, the u.s. labor market is recovering. for some time, there has been some disappointing data coming out. so i think central banks are being cautious there. there is no rush. the fed is beginning to taper. they have deemphasized the link between taper and rate rise. i think it makes sense for markets to stand back a little bit and reassess the trajectory of interest rate hikes. i think for a lot of companies, i think, for example, yesterday,
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qualcomm said the supply chain issues may get better next year. there is a risk that inflation could fall back next year and this could all be transitory. mark: -- dani: to that point, you have been underweight bonds. i wonder if some of the weighting from these central banks, if that causes you at all to be says that outlook? -- to reassess that outlook? janet: we are still very much [indiscernible] and underway positions. it is because we still feel that the economy is progressing. there is still room for bond yields to rise further. as a result, we have montaigne are positions and we favor equities -- we have maintained our positions. and we favor equities. we just think that the earnings through this very strong and
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it's just more attractive to hold equities at this point of the cycle, which we still feel there is a further way to go for economic growth to progress. dani: as we get these central banks to link the decisions, is there a risk that we get the bulk of them next year? perhaps they are more strong than they would have been if they were spaced out and that could derail the rally. janet: so, we still believe that central banks are going to raise interest rates in a very gradual and managed manner. i think -- i think the federal reserve has been doing very well. we had the taper, the markets did not react negative, because it's all been well communicated. i think if there's any change in that, they will communicate it well in advance to markets. we don't believe that bond
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yields will rise to an extent that would deter the current market. we believe that bond yields will be higher but it's not going to be rising very quickly or very -- because we have passed -- global growth already. there is a risk that inflation was transitory eventually, given what we are hearing about some potentially positive news from the supply chain issues. dani: yields still deeply negative. you are going to stick around with us. that is janet mui from brewin dolphin. let's get over to the first word news. >> france says the latest round of talks with the u.k.'s brexit minister over fishing licenses were useful and positive heard meanwhile, new data from the u.k. national ordered office found britain's trade within the eu fell 15% in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2018.
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businesses say additional redtape, including form filling and hiring of customs agents. the white house has mandated covid vaccines or weekly testing for all staff at u.s. companies with 100 or more employees. those that don't enforce the rule or deliberately ignore it face fines. the administration had a ready expanded vaccination rules for federal workers. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani? dani: that is annabelle droulers in hong kong. coming up, is the stay-at-home traded dead? we are going to talk corporate earnings and all things stocks with janet mui next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london. equities continued their rally. we ended another session of an s&p 500 index at an all-time record. our guest at this morning is adding to u.s. equities. janet mui it is from who -- it is janet mui from brewin dolphin who is still with us. this is a very new position. why u.s. equities? why add more to that part of the portfolio? janet: yes. we are structurally bullish on u.s. equities to start with. and we believe that from our assessment of where we are in the economic cycle, we are now in mid-cycle. which, as we move towards the late cycle stage, u.s. equities has been a now performer versus other regions -- has been then
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an out performer versus other regions. u.s. is the primary destination for quality. we are comfortable to add to our u.s. position. and i think we get the comfort from the latest third-quarter earnings from the bulk of the u.s. companies, from the s&p 500 in the quarter, they're doing very well, strong earnings growth, wide margins. we believe that trajectory is going to continue as the supply chain problems continue to ease. and there is evidence that the u.s. companies are handling the supply crunch well. when it comes to adding u.s. positions as we head into full recovery in the u.s.. dani: janet, this is going to be so disheartening for all the value bulls.
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it definitely makes sense that you are pulling back from em x asia. you are broadly pulling back from those more cyclical markets. are there any sort of tactical opportunities within them that you would look at, or are these just regions that you don't really want to be invested in that the moment? bill: i mean -- janet: i mean, we are still marginal. overall, overweight is still maintained, it's just that we are making some regional shifts. we generally are marginally overweight in europe and u.k., for example. we feel that the momentum is going into the growth trade side of things, which will favor more of the u.s. the u.k., i mean, predominantly, the value has been driven by banks and energy. we feel that tailwinds have been
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fading. for the banks, for example, ally has been driven by the reduction in the loan loss provision, and of course, the higher bond yields. what we size that the yield curve actually has flattened because the short-term yields have [indiscernible] which is actually not as supportive to banks as you would have imagined. that value cycle traders probably fading into next year. dani: fantastic to have you on this morning. that's janet mui, investment director at brewin dolphin. we are seeing a lot of those large caps outperforming a lot of the growth stocks. we saw the nasdaq and s&p 500 hit a record yesterday. we are going to shift away from public market sent into private markets.
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ares real estate is finding an opportunity in today's u.k. housing market. companies focusing on addressing the supply of rentals. we will speak exclusively to them next.
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♪ dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. i am dani burger. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." global yields drop. as shock a boe decision kicks off a rowdy in bond markets from australia to the u.s. stocks edged lower before today's key jobs report card the stay-at-home trade fizzles. peloton shares plunge as the firm slashes its forecast.
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uber has its first ever adjusted profit but the stock still falls. crude prices rise. investors await a response to the modest output hike. from opec-plus. . ending the week with a global reset in these bond markets. we saw bond markets rally yesterday after that boe decision to hold really spurring moves across the spectrum. let's check it out where we stand so far this morning. we are seeing basically those moves in the bond market holding tight. we are not even up one basis point here. again, most of the moves emanating from the u.k. u.k. bond market closed at this time in the morning. after a record in u.s. stocks, we are looking at an unchanged s&p 500 futures session as well. we were just talking to our last guest, janet mui of brewin dolphin, who likes regional stocks and is making a shift into the u.s. iron ore up 2%. we are looking at brent crude
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now moving into losses after some gains after yesterday opec decided to hang tight with their planned output increase. let's talk about real estate. we have workers returning to cities throughout the u.k. that means demand for new homes and rental units has ballooned, but shortages have weighed on construction volume, sending homes to record high prices. taking advantage of that demand is are management -- ares management. i am thrilled to say that joining us exclusively is that head of real estate at ares, bill benjamin. happy friday to you. this planned housing project, it is basically looking at price accessible single-family homes. why concentrate on this market? bill: good morning. it's great to be back. good to see you. this is a growing market, both
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in the united states, where we have been very active, and here in the u.k. and people want to own a home, they want to live in a home, particularly after the pandemic. they want a bit of green space and breathing room. the u.k. has consistently, for decades, been undersupplied in housing of all types. the country needs 250,000 new units a year. production ranges -- production and delivery ranges from 100,000 to 125,000. there is a chronic and compounding shortfall. adding to that, housing affordability has deteriorated. the ratio of home prices to incomes has grown, so young people in particular don't have the money for the deposit, so it drives them into this very exciting sector, built to rent. single-family homes where you get the physical amenity of your own home but you rent while you
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build up the ability to make a deposit on your first home purchase. dani: i do wonder whether the renting model how important that flexibility is at the moment in this covid world where, sure, people are heading back. . into cities. but there's this question if employers will send them home again if questions -- cases a spike in. how key is that -- cases spike again. how key is that flexibility picture? bill: the u.s. is the most flexible market. in the u.k., workforces tend to be less mobile, but it's increasing. people, young people in particular, who stay at jobs for shorter time than previous generations, do want their flexibility and their life. their lives changed. they had children, they moved. flexibility is important. dani: in targeting the middle income earners, i wonder how difficult it is in this environment simply to keep prices down. how much of that supply issue
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ways on the housing market, given there are shortages of materials and shortages of labor as well? bill: it's a problem in housing. it's a problem in industrial, where there's a chronic undersupplied as well. first of all, and in the u.k., it is very pronounced. we like this green and pleasant land. would like to preserve the -- we like to preserve the green belts. planning permissions for all sorts of developments are -- added to that, the supply chain shortages we have been talking about, compounded by the reconfiguration from brexit, solve that. and the slowing down of sites during the pandemic. you almost have a perfect storm in terms of supply. population continues to grow, you got some economic growth, and household formation, and that's key here.
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household formation is smaller and smaller, so a little bit of population growth may generate a disproportionate amount of housing demand, because people are living alone or its two people or smaller families. dani: of course, in all of this, there's a sharp increase in living costs. we have seen some consumer confidence start to weaken in the u.k.. does that weakening consumer confidence picture, is that something that would draw people to these more affordable rentals or would it make them hesitate on these types of new developments? bill: i think that, again, that would drive them to rental. everyone has got to live somewhere. if your budget is tighter, how are you going to save for that deposit and get on the housing ladder? that's the issue. rental will benefit from that. dani: so, before i let you go, i
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have to mention the hot in the u.k., and that's of course the boe holding rates in yesterday's meeting. if this does lead to next year, where we do start to have more rate increases, what does that do to the housing market, which at the moment has been enjoying very low rates? bill: it's pretty clear, cost of your mortgage goes up, you can afford less house. if you own a house and you are on a floating rate mortgage, you're going to cut back other spending. it's really a question of degrees. a 25 basis point, 50 basis point rise should not have a material impact. it will cool something down. it's when we get to the 100, 150, 200 basis point increase is that i think you will see a real leveling off of some demand. dani: bill, really great to catch up with you. appreciate you waking up early. that is bill benjamin, partner and head of ares real estate group. let's get over to the first word
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news with annabelle droulers in hong kong. >> hi. president xi jinping says china is open to discussing key points of his trade tensions with the u.s., including subsidies to industrial firms and state owned companies. he says china will take an active and open attitude to talks on issues such as the digital economy, trade, and the environment. xi spoke at the opening of the china international import expo in shanghai, where he also mention policies aimed at boosting imports. portuguese prime minister is to face an early election on january 30. this after parliament rejected his budget last week. costa, whose minority socialist government is halfway through a four-year term, is heading for the but with a lead in opinion polls. peloton shares plunged after the fitness company cut its annual revenue forecast by as much as $1 billion and lowered its projections for subscribers and profit margins. on an earnings call, pellets on
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said it the impact of economic reopening. uber has reported its first ever adjusted profit, boosted by a recovery in ride-hailing and sustained demand in its delivery business. however, third-quarter ebitda of $8 billion was wiped out by other expenses, including a lockdown of its stake in china. both pushed uber to a net loss of $2.4 billion over the period. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thanks so much. that's annabelle droulers in hong kong. coming up, crude prices in focus. investors away a u.s. response of the modest output hikes from opec plus. we will have more on that story next with amrita sen. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london. it was a thursday surprise at thread needle street after a market that expected a rate hike from the boe, though economists were evenly split, to be fair. we saw this major reaction from a boe that decided to hold because a global bond market rally from the u.k. to australia to the u.s. the issues that we had entered the week expecting this to be one the inflation bull were in charge on running the show. i think dan moss puts it really well in his piece yesterday, writing that if the hawks couldn't score in london, it
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calls into serious question the past month's dominant storine of central banks being pushed around by investors counting on early hikes. is it the end of the bond vigilantes? are they not able to be as forceful in this market as they hoped for? we certainly are still seeing some rate bets start to be pulled back. we look at bond market moves. let me give you some of the statistics. five year yield in the u.k. dropped to a three week low. u.k. five-year gilt yields which sank the most since the brexit vote. we had a germany two-year yielded that fell to the lowest and two months. from the bond markets are the oil market, the white house says opec and its allies are putting the global economy at risk after the cartel rejected president biden's pleas to hike production. opec stuck to its original plan, citing pressure on oil demand from the coronavirus. the u.s. has asked for a hike of
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at least double that to alleviate high crude prices. joining me now is amrita sen, director of research at energy aspects. this was a decision that many, including yourself, certainly expected. what do we make of the tone coming out of yesterday's conference from prince been someone -- prince bin salman? amrita: the press conference was nothing short of epic. for them, they are looking at 2022 balances. they can see a lot of downside risk in q1. i think -- said the same thing. all of them very much coming together to get that message across. for me, the biggest take away from the press conference, as the prince said, really, nobody gets to tell opec-plus what to do. the united front showed at the
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press conference. he rallied every minister from russia, uae, nigeria. everybody was there saying this was a collective decision. we are doing what we think is right for the market. nobody gets to tell us what to do, even if that person sits in the white house. dani: a very clear message. does that, to an extent, present political problems, political tensions between saudi, opec and the u.s.? or was this enough of a united front to avoid any of that? amrita: the united front was very much because they are trying to say, look, we are doing what's right for the oil market. they've shown some very interesting facts that oil has gone up the least compared to gas and coal. regular light markets have been better regulated markets have
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been better for consumers. the main reason for oil prices to be going up in the near term like right now is a demand recovery, but the structural issues underinvestment. the more we talk about energy transition and move oil from fossil fuels, higher prices are here to stay. that was the message they were trying to get. to your question about the political issues, look, the biden administration had been sending clear signals saying if opec-plus don't add, we will be ready to do something. that's currently a veiled threat towards an spr release. are sources suggest the same thing. the ball is back in biden's court. we don't think at these prices they are going to do it. dani: that was going to be my question, how likely it would be. should they surprise, should they actually release those strategic reserves? how dramatic of an action is that? amrita: well, the biggest
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problem is we have been doing a lot of work on the strategic trillion reserves and the criteria. technically, it needs to be a physical supply loss. how do you say there's been a physical supply loss? they want to do it in conjunction with the iea. we don't think the iea is going to join in. china and india have already been releasing spr's, much like japan and korea. spr is is the only available barrel to have her now. if the u.s. were to do it, about, let's say the maximum as a one-off, they can do 30 million barrels. prices will come off. china is going to come and buy. back in 2011, after the spr, we were down just for four days. it's a temporary measure. it's going to be a short-term measure. it will not solve the problem. stocks are very low. we ultimately need more supply,
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investment, investment in the upstream that gives us more supply and that's not coming. dani: so, it's not coming and there's some question over whether we get that strategic release. there's some question over what impact that would have in curbing oil prices. how high could begin this market? francisco blanche, who continually says we are going to get $100 plus oil,'s new estimate is $120 by june. where are you seeing prices go to? amrita: look, we have always probably been on the bullish side, and for structural reasons, because we have been highlighting this supply mismatch for some time. we had $87 brent for next year back last year. we kind of have been highlighting this. $100 of course is possible. we have not ruled that out, especially if you get a cold winter. inventories today are 35 million barrels below october 2019 levels globally. demand is picking up.
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yes, opec-plus are adding barrels but we all know they don't necessarily have the spare capacity, all of them collectively, to keep adding the 400,000 barrels per day. we are looking at an incredibly tight market. ultimately, prices need to go to the level where consumers start to react and demand comes off. that is around that $120 per barrel. dani: that's the price, so it could get to that. how volatile would the path there be? amrita: that's i think the most important question right now. there's downside risk to prices, right? there is worries about spr. the market will have to see if the biden administration acts or not. there are concerns about covid cases rising in europe, china. it is going to whipsaw a lot this winter. once we are through the winter internet steer, because again -- into next year, because again, q1, we always build, after that,
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you are going to be looking at a market with incredibly low stocks and incredibly low spare capacity. we always had that above $100 per barrel anyways. that gets brought forward definitely into 2022. the next 3-6 months will be a lot of volatility because of the winter pressures around covid as well. dani: great to have you on and helping us navigate that volatile environment heard that is amrita sen from energy aspects. coming up, global yields drop. a shock boe decision kicks off a rally and bond markets from australia to the u.s. more on the boe next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> market pricing, you know, i think, you know, as you could
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tell from the commentary we may today -- made today, the direction is a bit overdone, in our candida view. dani: bank of england and andrew bailey commenting after the boe's surprise decision to hold rates. we are joined by lizzy burden, always the wisest voice in the room when it comes to the boe. what was the main takeaway from yesterday's boe decision? is the bank having a communication crisis? >> the bank surprised markets by keeping rates on hold. that triggers the accusation the and your bailey, the governor -- andrew bailey, the governor, is the new, unreliable boyfriend. that was the name given to his predecessor, mark carney, for failing to deliver on forward guidance. part of the reason that markets were ramping up expectations so
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aggressively was because of hawkish hands dropped by -- hints dropped by the governor himself. he insists that he never said the bank would act in november, only that it must act if inflation expectations got out of control. but whether or not he accepts the label of the unreliable boyfriend, some element of tightening has already happened because markets priced it in. dani: the unreliable boyfriend is back. what was the reason we got from the boe in terms of why they did not hike? >> the monetary policy committee said there's not much you can do about supply disruptions. it cannot manufacture semi conductor chips. it wants to wait for clear data on the labor market, just like the fed really. andrew bailey said it was a close call, although the vote split on rates was 7-2. although markets were convinced that a rate hike was coming, to their credit, economists were not so convinced.
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bloomberg economics always said that it was not always a done deal. dani: where does that leave us for the future path for rates in england? lizzy: the bank of england now has raised its forecast for inflation to peak at 5% in april, the highest since 2011, above its 2% target. it sees interest rates rising, expects to hike them in the coming months. markets are pricing for the first post-pandemic rate hike not to come in december now, but in february next year. and the long-term, bailey, as you heard in the interview, pushed back against the idea that rates will reach 1% by the end of next year. dani: a really interesting question, whether all central banks are on hold and whether we get this tightening altogether from the u.s., from the boe. that is bloomberg's lizzy burden staying on top of the boe for us. a quick check on your markets. you're looking at the s&p 500
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futures session, which is little changed. we saw the s&p 500 and the nasdaq hit yet another new record yesterday, its third consecutive day. we did not see the russell 2000 do the same or the nasdaq, so perhaps it is cyclical stocks as we saw that bond market start to rally. bond markets this morning just under one basis point of a move higher, so a touch of selling in the asian session. still around 1.53. iron ore has been one of the bigger moves this morning. you have stockpiles growing in china. we saw aluminum selloff, and other metals as well. . it has not been a pretty morning for base metals. we are looking at brent crude above $80 per barrel, inching towards $81 per barrel. we were talking to amrita sen, who talked about the united front presented by opec pushing
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back against the white house, saying that they are doing what's right for the oil market and will not be moved by anyone, least the white house. that's it for "bloomberg daybreak: europe." bloomberg markets is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: good morning and welcome to bloomberg markets: europe. the cash trade is less than an hour away. a bank of england decision kicks off a global bond rally. the governor says it i

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