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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  November 1, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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agreement he was counting on from congress to quiet skeptics of the u.s. commitment. the president has a handshake deal with lawmakers to spend 555 billion dollars fighting global warming. the united states and european union have reached a tariff -busting trade agreement to fix the steel and aluminum markets. they will try to leverage it into a broader global arrangement that would penalize countries that don't meet low carbon targets when producing the metals. the accord would remove tariff on goods worth as much as $10 billion. france and u.k. are headed for a full confrontation over fishing rights within the next two days. tuesday, the french government is sent to introduce new controls on goods across its border with the u.k. also, british fishing boats will be blocked from unloading their
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catching france. this is in response to what paris sees as unjustified restrictions on french fishing boats in britain's waters. apple reportedly wants iphones to detect car crashes and automatically dial 911. next year, apple will come out with a product feature called crash detection for iphones and apple watches. it uses sensors to detect car crashes when they occur such as by measuring a sudden spike in gravity forces on impact. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: it is 1:00 p.m. in new
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york, 5:00 in london, 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. i'm matt miller. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following on the bloomberg and from around the world. central banks turn hawkish. full market coverage ahead of the fed this week. and we will go live to the world leaders summit at cop26 in glascow, scotland and speak to the prime minister of belgium. more than 5 million people have died of covid-19 worldwide even as vaccines cut down on fatality rates. we will discuss the terrible headline there with the director of the center for adolescent health for johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. first, a quick check at what is going on in markets. right now, the s&p 500 gaining some ground at 4612.
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the u.s. 10 year getting sold off right now, rising to 1.5803. nymex crude oil rising $.64 a barrel. 84.21. thew federal reserve is expected to start scalinginiie cisar wednesday. it is also having to wrap up with elevated inflation, maybe stickier than originally thought. with us now is credit site global head of strategy. winnie, thank you for joining us. there is a growing concern that the inflation we are looking at now could lead to something worse, like a 1970's style inflation eventually. we are starting to see wages creep higher along with prices. what is your view? winnie: thank you for having me
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this afternoon. my view is not that we will reach a 1970's style of stagflation. there have been a number of changes in terms of the structure of the global economy, domestic economy, structure of the labor force, technology and productivity gains we have seen. i am not calling for a stagflationary environment. right now, we are focused on the inflationary pressures which are acutely on the supply side right now. there has been a deceleration in demand, topline numbers, gdp growth in q3 exacerbated by the spike in coronavirus, the delta wave. but there is still a lot of pent-up demand. we are very focused on how long it takes for that demand to play through the system and how quickly corporate america can react to the supply chain factors. matt: what is your view as we look at s&p 4600 now in terms of
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how much room we had to run. if i had cash to invest right now, would you suggest i buy stocks? winnie: i am a credit strategist at heart, so i will not opine on the s&p 500. what i will say is investors are very focused on inflationary aligned or protected asset classes. we have seen interest in leveraged loans, clo market, starting to see some chop your flows in demand for u.s. investment-grade, but ultimately it comes down to what is your investment mandate. do you need to put cash somewhere where you are earning somewhat more than zero? then u.s. high yield is a good bet. shorter duration, improving fundamentals. but if you are looking for the upside trade, may be corporate credit is not where you want to be in this current environment. matt: we had a story last week. i know you gave us your take on
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inflation, you are not as scared as everybody, but someone else wrote that bond investors face an old enemy, inflation. fixed assets don't offer much in the way of shelter. it is a concern if you are looking at credit. winnie: it is a concern, but there is still an awful lot of fixed income trading at negative yields right now. the broader investor universe is so concerned about inflation, and there is something wrong with the fixed income market given those negative yields. given what we have seen in the yield curve in the u.s., the flattening that has gone on indicates to me that investors are more concerned about some sort of policy error, bringing forward a expectations to address supply-side inflationary pressure. that may not be the course that actually goes through the market. i am a little skeptical of what we have seen in terms of the front-end of the market, but i
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also acknowledge u.s. oig at 2% with inflation running at 3% to 5% depending on the metric you are looking at, does not look like a compelling trade. matt: what do you make of the flattening of the yield curve? it looks a little bit crazy when you look at the one-year chart, but if you pull out, he is clearly not as flat as it had been creep into. -- pre-pandemic. winnie: some of it is a readjustment of growth expectations. everyone was looking for this while the boom post-covid. getting the economy back online. unfortunately, we have seen some idiosyncratic challenges in china with the property market, other em-specific issues. so the recovery feels less globally synchronized, which will slow things down, and then you add onto to it the reality that some pandemic related
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restrictions have slowed things down. you have this combination of a yield-starved investor universe, looking for any duration, plus the realization that it will take baby steps to get out of the pandemic. matt: have a control room has some fast fingers, they just pulled up a chart of the 5's and 30's. last week, the 20/30's inverted. some weirdness going on at the end of the curve. winnie: i am less willing to stick my neck out on 20/30's. 20's is still relatively new. having that often run dynamic does sometimes lead to some wonky valuations. the curve is still inverted, not all that much, but i think it has more to do with market
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technicals than any call on the long end of the market. matt: let me finally ask if you are looking for a place to go, if you had to pick a place, where would you invest right now? even if it is not a great market for credit, what would you pick, in terms of regions, industries? winnie: we are still very constructive on high-yield energy. it is a little bit painful for me as a strategist given energy has been a challenging trade over the past seven years. that being said, we have some strong fundamental tailwinds at our back. management teams have learned some hard lessons over the last few years, and valuations look pretty attractive relative to all other things. we will be looking at the opec-plus meeting this week, what comes out after that, but we are still constructive on high-yield energy. matt: thank you very much for joining us, winnie cisar.
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i want to get to something that caught my eye today, plays into the inflation narrative a little bit. a tentative deal has been struck between deere and united auto workers union. it offers substantial improvements over a deal that workers rejected before going on strike. the agreement has a larger wage increase, no new tiers to retirement benefits, a signing bonus of $8,500 per person, 10% raise this year, 5% in three years. the deal is subject to approval by union membership and considered a big win for labor. it is an important read across for unions and labor in general, not just for workers at deere. it suggests the company would rather not get drawn into a work stoppage with farm demand at the strongest in a decade. and the stock has done very well
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today. it suggests that investors just want them to get people back on the lines, in the factories, producing farming equipment. an estimated 15 million doses of kids vaccines will arrive at thousands of sites across the u.s. over the next week as the white house prepares for widespread and ocular lesions. the director for the center of adolescent health and johns hopkins joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg markets.
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i'm matt miller. an estimated 50 million doses of vaccines for kids will arrive at thousands of sites across the next week as the white house prepares for widespread inoculations, assuming the cdc signs off. this comes as moderna was notified that the fda will need extra time to analyze. for more, let's bring in dr. tamar mendelson, director for the center for adolescent held at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. let me ask you about the risks. we heard from moderna that there could be the possibility of heart conditions set off by these vaccines in teenagers. what do we know? tamar: i will say i am not an
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infectious disease expert, so i cannot speak specifically to medical risk, but all that i have read and heard confirmed the risks of having covid are far worse than the risks of the vaccination, so i am here to encourage parents and families to take advantage of this option for their young kids. matt: what are the options going to be? it will take longer for moderna to get an emergency approval from the fda. we are still not 100% sure about how the cdc is feeling about this process, but we are ready. what will it look like, and when? tamar: the approval for pfizer is very exciting. hopefully, the rollout will begin soon. hopefully in time for holidays as well. at this point, folks who are interested should start to gather information about where
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and when vaccines will be available locally. matt: when i was a kid, my parents would make sure to put us all in the same room if one of us had chickenpox because they figured, if you all get it now, you will not have to deal with it as an adult. that is as good as a vaccine. the problem is, they already had chickenpox, they have not had covid thankfully. this is why we have to vaccinate the kids, not necessarily for the health of the kids, but also because they don't pass it on to grandma and grandpa. tamar: this is a situation where you don't want kids to get covid so they can have immunity. while you are right, in general, illnesses have been milder in children, there are still a number, and growing number, of kids who have been hospitalized and died from this. this is definitely not an
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illness that you want anyone to get. getting immunity based on a vaccine is the safe and evidence-based way to go. matt: you can sell me on this. i am a pretty easy sell. i have been vaccinated, waiting for my booster. but there are a lot of americans -- regardless of how much scientific evidence you present to them -- will not buy it. what do you do in this case? tamar: there are a lot of people who's minds are not necessarily made up that they would not be vaccinated or not have their children vaccinated, but they are confused, they want more information. they are sharing a lot of misinformation on social media that is confusing. we really need to think about ways of reaching those folks. in particular, communities may be mistrustful -- for good reason -- because of past abuses
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or unethical behaviors. one of the important things is to have trusted messengers be able to connect with communities. our team is working with partners on an initiative called voices on vax in baltimore, where young people do outreach in the community to talk to other young people about the facts on the vaccine. matt: how much can you work with those social media companies? they are obviously a part of the problem in terms of misinformation. my barista said that she was worried that vaccine could paralyze her. she learned that on tiktok. on the other hand, you see campaigns -- on instagram -- of disclaimers about anything having to do with a covid vaccine. is it possible to use social media as a tool to help
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vaccinate america? tamar: i do think social media can be used as possibly to help pass out facts and bust myths about vaccination. in our voices on vax campaign, young people are posting on social media, and we have a website associated, so that they can share young people's voices around the facts. the important thing for the public is to listen to social media that is connected with science in some way, to be careful about who your sources are. matt: thank you so much for joining us. tamar mendelson of johns hopkins. we will note, of course, that the johns hopkins school of public health is supported by michael r. bloomberg. coming up, jes staley is out
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suddenly at barclays. his ties with sex offender jeffrey epstein costing him his job, or at least his description of that relationship to his employer. more on what this means for barclays. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. a shakeup at barclays over the weekend. ceo jes staley has stepped down after early conclusions from a u.k. regulator probe into his description of his relationship with jeffrey epstein. apparently, he wants to contest that description, and he and barclays have agreed that he will leave immediately. let's get more details from sonali basak. this was sudden and unexpected.
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jes staley is gone now. the new ceo is already there. sonali: he was made the treating chief. important for barclays, they were the last of the big european banks to be fighting with u.s. banks in that space. jes staley, the timing was sudden. but this investigation was a couple of years running. what did jes staley say to the regulators that led to this? there's a lot that we don't know about the situation. matt: this is about what jes staley told barclays about his relationship with jeffrey epstein, and then what barclays subsequently told the regulator about that description. sonali: barclays had said the investigation didn't have any findings that mr. staley knew of jeffrey epstein's alleged crimes.
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that is one important defense. matt: they are just covering themselves legally with that, right? sonali: the investigation goes back to his time at jp morgan. it is not that u.s. regulators had looked at leon black, when the investigation at apollo had taken suit. a law firm was fired, that happened differently than what you are seeing at barclays, which was brought on by a regulatory body. matt: we should make it clear, we don't have these polemic every findings. this is something regulators have shared with barclays and jes staley, and they made their decision based on that information. but it seems jes staley wants to fight this and clear his name. he says i don't want to distract from the job we are doing at barclays, i don't want to be the spotlight for investors.
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i will step down so i can fight this vigorously. there must be something there that he wants to fight. sonali: i think back to that report that we got from credit suisse. that took a couple of months. this has been a years long investigation and we don't have details about what regulators found and why it led to his ousting. shares of barclays were initially down on the news. this is the guy who had been reshaping barclays. the fact that the jeffrey epstein situation has led to his ouster, it is a big surprise, and the timing, with such little detail, is a surprise as well. matt: bringing down ceos from beyond the grave. the new ceo, we wrote a great piece on a few weeks ago. he basically called the london whale risk, jp morgan pooh-poohed him, staley saw some
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talent and said, get over here. sonali: it is hard to be a risk manager and treat executive. usually, those two talents at a bank don't like each other. but to be able to rise within risk management and then trading, transform it into not only a saver but competitive division, is a rare feat. matt: it will be interesting to follow. thank you so much for joining us. talking about the big and sudden moves at barclays. jes staley is out. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. president biden says the united states is ready to be a leader again in the fight against
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climate change. addressing the u.n. climate summit in glasgow, scotland, the president's statement comes despite the discord in the u.s. concerning his ambitious plan for renewable energy. president biden: we will demonstrate the united states is not only back at the table but hopefully will lead by the power of our example. i know it has not been the case, and that is why my administration is working overtime, to show that our climate commitment is action, not words. mark: mr. bond and acknowledge that the u.s. and other developed nations were largely responsible for climate change and said actions taken this decade will be decisive in preventing future generations from suffering. more than 5 million people around the world have died from the coronavirus less than two years after it was first documented. vaccines have helped slash fatality rates in the latest one
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million deaths came slower than the previous two.the death rate has not returned to what was seen in the first year of the pandemic. in china, the economy showed further signs of weakness in october. economic indicators show the economy is under pressure from both supply-side and demand-side. manufacturers are struggling with electricity shortages and rising costs, while consumer spending remains weak, as the government's covid zero approach means a tightening of restrictions around travel and social gatherings. staff shortages are becoming more of a challenge for u.s. prison agencies. it has long been a problem given the low pay and difficult nature of the work, but the pandemic has pushed some corrections systems into crisis. many officers are retiring or quitting. officials are struggling to recruit new employees. also, some prisons whose
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population dropped over the pandemic, are seeing their numbers go back up. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ amanda: i'm amanda lang. welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: i'm matt miller. here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. crude on the rise, as opec members resist calls for increasing production. we will have the latest with the director of research at energy aspects. also, the rise of volume. -- boat buying.
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we will talk about the trend of boating and how it is handling the supply crisis. and is a messy holiday season upon us? american airlines describes 1900 flights over the weekend as razor thin staffing ways on the carrier. we will discuss in our stock of the hour. amanda: thank you for that pun-heavy series of cold opens. watching the markets versus internals. the s&p turning negative. the nasdaq still the better of the indices, despite that the techs on the s&p's are not showing up. we are seeing some big swings. tesla is up 5%. you were talking about john deere. interesting to see that stock soaring as it resolves what would have been a costly labor
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battle. it points to what brca, concerns about supply chain and cost. it showed up in the ism. with 80% of s&p companies reporting, we are seeing beats to expectations. for what it's worth, notable that the headline and the internals are not necessarily playing ball. the nasdaq 100 has been on a record-setting rally. not every stock pitching in. the equal weighted index of tech has gone 39 days without a meanwhile, the cap-weighted cage has made three in that same time. the last time it failed to match the cap-weighted peer this long was back in 2018. i guess we are just getting started, if that is any gauge. matt: on the other hand, you can look at the earnings beats and see how things are progressing.
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over the last four quarters, if you look at stocks on both sides of the atlantic, we had big beats, 15, 20%. now we are looking at 5%, 10% beats, in terms of how much higher profit is and the street is looking for. the amount by companies beat is coming down. that is true for big cap tech as well. as a result, we see most of them on the downside on the s&p 500 today. facebook was a big winner, now calling it the meta platform, but on the downside you have amazon, alphabet, google, adobe, netflix, etc. today, looks like tech is weighing on the stock market. amanda: totally. as you say, priced to perfection takes on a new meaning where you
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can beat your quarter but not by enough. matt: i said nvidia, they are actually up a percent. if you check out the s&p on your bloomberg, a great way to look at what is weighing on the index. . time for stock of the hour. airlines cut staff through attrition during covid, but now the strategy is fighting back. american airlines lost 2200 flights over the weekend. kriti gupta is here to break things down. i thought i flight from berlin was hard but at least i had a flight. >> it has to do with 2200 cancellations, a third event on sunday. it all comes down to flight shortages. there are concerns about limiting hours that pilots can work, so by the end of the month, if you have these high weather issues, why these cancellations happen in the first place, and you don't have
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the backup to support them, that is where you get into trouble. then by the end of the month, you have to cancel. two thirds of the cancellations happening because of a flight attendant shortage, the other third happening from pilots. this is something they are trying to fix, actively hiring pilots and attendance. at the end of the day, this has to do with the fact that airlines were not expecting demand to ramp up this quickly. here we are at 84% of pre-pandemic fly capacity. this is why so much of that push for getting the government payroll aid was happening last fall. this idea that we want our staff to be on standby when this demand ramps up. here we are, 84% of pre-pandemic capacity and very low staff. let's see if they can catch up to what the demand has in store for them. amanda: we talk a lot about these staffing shortages all over.
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is this a case that we will see the revenue flow to other airlines, or is this a loss as customers cancel their trips? kriti: a loss at the moment. this is important for american airlines and airlines broadly. last year, you had this massive debt issuance, where government payroll able be in the rear view mirror. that is why you see this debt being issued. $25 billion for american airlines coming due before 2027. fliers can go to other airlines, but right now the issue is, can american tread water in the face of the fact that they are dealing with costs like jet fuel , margins, and the labor shortage. matt: thank you so much for joining us, kriti gupta. opec facing the pressure to increase output. we will discuss calls from the likes of the u.s. and japan with
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the director of research at energy aspects. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i am more optimistic about the global outcome. for the first time in many g20's we were able to come to conclusions collectively. i am cautiously optimistic that we can get somewhere. matt: this is bloomberg markets. that was the dutch prime minister speaking earlier today on the sidelines of the cop26 summit in glasgow. some are saying another energy event this week may overshadow cop, and that is the opec-plus
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virtual meeting which is heading for a clash with the u.s. and others, as more members reject president biden's call for the group to raise production faster and keep prices low. it is interesting, on the one hand, it seems we want to save the earth and stop using so much fossil fuels. you would think a higher price is a great way to reduce consumption. on the other hand, the president, who does seem to want to do the right thing for the earth, also wants us to be able to buy cheaper gas, and that will lead to us more burning more of it. amanda: terrible when your ideals run into political reality, that is true around many countries of the world, where we are seeing energy shocks being brought home to consumers. it changes the way that we think about these issues and it makes
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it tougher for politicians to go to cop and say that we will hit the timing on these questions that we need to. matt: not only do you want to save the earth, but are you willing to pay for it? the answer to the first is, i think so, but to the second, maybe not. joining us now is the director of research at energy aspects, amrita sen. let's talk about opec's unwillingness to boost production. they don't want prices to get out of control either. they have an interest in keeping the oil price, if not low, then steady. amrita: absolutely. they don't want prices to go out of hand either, but from their point of view, you are coming into the winter -- for instance, russia talking about a high case count, and they are struggling right now. a lot of opec members we speak to are pointing to this, saying
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it is not that we are bringing production as a one-off. we have 400,000 barrels coming online every month all the way to september 2022, but there are reasons to be cautious. the winter is coming but we don't know what we will have ahead. will we have further restrictions? even if not as drastic as last year, they don't want to preempt anything. they were badly burned in 2018, when trump was talking about zero iranian waivers, increased production, only for trump to then turn around and give iran invoices. prices crashed. they don't want a repeat of that, so that is why they are being cautious. amanda: is there a scenario where opec can throw a bone to the u.s. and others, and an increase to some degree without capitulating in a way that harms the price materially? when we have $120 oil being
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called for, does that give a possibility that capacity could go up? amrita: if prices were to shoot higher -- and the velocity of the increase matters. if you have an outage and prices are at $100 tomorrow, of course, opec will want to do something to make sure prices don't go out of control. right now, for all the headlines around everyone asking opec to do more, we have stabilized around $85. that is what they are talking about. another thing that opec and the saudi energy minister is talking about, look at gas and coal prices. they are up far higher than oil. he is saying that all of this is a mistake on policymakers from the west. this is partly due to energy transition, so don't blame opec for this, because this is not opec's problem.
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it is not that they are not increasing production, they are. but they don't want to do more than what the deal already stipulates them to do. matt: we saw almost all the leaders going to glasgow for cup only six -- cop26. is there any reason that we can expect them to come up with something by moving from italy to scotland? amrita: maybe the cold gets them to come up with some numbers. no, the point you are making is valid. there is a lot of rhetoric, bold statements, but the numbers are still missing. and you point this out. there is a real dichotomy in the west in today's energy policy. on the one hand, a real push toward making the climate cleaner, fair enough, and greener. but at the same time,
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politicians are not willing to accept that the only way that you will transition demand away from fossil fuel is through high prices. that becomes politically on acceptable because then you are talking about the voters. you cannot have it both ways. amanda: is there any expectation that anything coming out of cop could be market moving? we think about things like a mission curtailment in canada for oilsands. may be priced in. would you think there would be any market reactions to cop26? amrita: in our view, most of the announcements happen pre-cop. we don't expect anything major. saudi arabia came out with the zero target, australia, china around what they want the renewable percentages to be. those were the big announcements in any case. amanda: great to have you with us, amrita sen, the energy
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aspects director of research. coming up, the rise of boat buying that was a pandemic trend shows no signs of slowing down. we are speaking to the ceo of brunswick about how his business is growing, and how he plans to keep it that way. stay with us.
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amanda: this is bloomberg markets. i'm amanda lang. alongside matt miller. in today's ism data, we learned this stage of the pandemic will be characterized by waiting period we know supply chain issues are alive and well. the average lead time for materials is only growing, causing massive issues for businesses. one that we are watching closely
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is brunswick. it did have record earnings, some of it driven by a 31% jump in new boat ownership during the pandemic. dave foulkes is the ceo. when i see that number, you have to ask, how is this repeatable as the pandemic lines down? is your success also the underbelly of your weakness? david: i don't think so. we see a lot of trends that are constructive in the long term for us. flexible working. we recently found people who are boating more during the week. 40% of people are finding time to do so, and some of them are even now working from boats. because of inventory availability, we are seeing purchases delete into 2022 and beyond. we think demand for boats will be strong, but we are in a
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supply chain issue, but we are working quickly through that. matt: you have some very popular boat brands at brunswick. i have a friend who picked up one of your boats over the pandemic, and they have been able to spend some time with their family on it. i have been jealous. but as my dad told me, a boat is a hole in which you shovel money into. how do you counter that perception? david: technology and quality have moved on a lot. if you look at our mercury propulsion brand, the quality is equivalent to companies like honda or apple. extremely reliable, high quality product. we pride ourselves on that.
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you cannot have our kinds of brands unless you support them with outstanding policy and support services. that is a dated perception of boating, and i think we are past that. we offer a very high quality product. amanda: some of that, the add-on services are important. a growing part of your business. how big can that get? i think that is a pretty sizable piece right now. can you grow that as part of your revenue or does it stay lockstep with the hardware, the boats that you sell? david: we think we can grow quite a lot. overall, about half of our total earnings come from what we would call annuity type of sources. a combination of parts and accessories sold in the aftermarket. it really depends how much people are boating versus buying new boats.
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freedom boat is a new service model for us, shared access, that is growing at a prolific rate. 320 locations. about 70,000 members. that is a subscription-based service, like joining a club. you joined a location. we think those annuity components about earnings and revenue will only grow. we are deliberately focused in those areas through our active m&a activities. matt: it has always been popular, boating. has gotten much more popular in the pandemic. people have learned to value their time more, time with family. what about the sports aspect of it? water skiing, wake boarding. do you push that as well? david: we do. we have a brand called heyday,
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which is a wakeboarding brand. and then of course, fishing, which has been popular in the u.s., has also grown in the pandemic. we offer the broadest range of fishing boats. about two thirds of the bows that we sell our fishing boats, although they can be used for other purposes. activity-based boating, whether it is fishing or even taking the family out to go tubing, is a popular thing right now. matt: appreciate your time. brunswick ceo david foulkes talking to us. for amanda lang, i'm matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. president biden says the united states is ready to be a leader again in the fight against
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climate change. addressing the u.n. climate summit in glascow, scotland, the president said his administration is working hard to show the u.s. climate commitment is action, not words. the statement comes despite discord in the u.s. concerning his ambition to steer billions in taxpayer dollars toward renewable energy. the grease prime minister - -greece prime minister talked about what leaders of the climate summit need to do to solve the problem. he says the number one priority is saving lives. >> what we see is fires are becoming much more intense, difficult to contain. we know this is a direct consequence of climate change, we know we need to do more to manage our forces better. as a european union, we need to do more to strengthen our overall protection.


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