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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 1, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EDT

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>> what we are seeing as just a reflection of continued uncertainty in the economy. >> the actual earnings and guidance -- >> we will stay in a positive environment for equities. >> this bond market isn't telling us disaster is ahead. >> i think there is probably more pressure to come. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: what a week we've got coming up for you. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. your equity market has a lift, a bid come up another one half of 1%. lisa: i find it amazing that the market is pricing in two rate hikes next year. this is a huge repricing and we
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see it increasing every day. it is not shaking the equity market? why? why does the equity market shrug off-- jonathan: things could only get better. kailey leinz, it is unreal. amazon, apple, nothing stops this market from turning out another all-time high. kailey: shrugging off disappointing results from two giants on friday. you said this could last until thanksgiving -- morgan stanley said this could last until thanksgiving but not much longer than that, and the fundamental picture is worsening so the bullish trend cannot last. jonathan: we have all the ingredients for the selloff without the selloff. do we finally get some pushback from this chairman on this rates pricing, which has really built up, not just in america but worldwide? lisa: you said everything can only get better. what happened to the no snark our?
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-- hour? jonathan: maybe i was just taking a few days off, i'm a changed man and i'm optimistic about the future. lisa: i will hold you to that. the ecb tried to push back and it didn't work. what does that mean? what if they pushback and the market doesn't buy it? is not worse for the market? jonathan: are recalling that pushback from the ecb last week? kailey: they kind of tried. lisa: could have tried harder. they said it doesn't cohere with anything we are seeing and nothing took the market for more conviction of sooner rate hikes. jonathan: let's just imagine the last game of the world series and someone says, softball. just to get a home run. do you think markets are getting ahead of themselves? they dropped the bat and walked away, not for me to say. kailey: i would argue she didn't
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try hard to pushback or could have tried harder. will we see more firm pushback from chairman jerome powell? jonathan: a message from frankfurt, germany, try harder. yields higher by a couple basis points on tens to 1.5768. the fx market, euro-dollar, 1.1572. prude come in the energy market -- crude, any energy market, 8397. lisa: not necessarily caving to president biden saying, please pump more oil and they are saying, no. that's the reason why we see oil prices climbing a bit which is in the that's interesting in light of cop 26 in glasgow where they are gathering and presenting lofty goals. will they get done with the g20 meeting? seems like not much, which is
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concerning to the people we've been speaking to. there needs to be more concrete action going forward. the idea of moving now is what can concretely be done for political officials and the private sector. around 9:00 a.m., we will hear president biden give his initiating statement as he takes the helm at a time his approval rating is pretty low, fallen to 42%. this is the lowest approval rating to this point in a presidency going back in history with the exception of former president trump. at 10:00, a slew of economic data. ism manufacturing pmi, construction data from september. how much are the numbers going up and supporting manufacturing in the short-term, versus hampering growth? to your point about people are able to shrug everything off, there are signs supply chain issues are getting worse. freight rates went down just
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slightly and it gave people confidence, but they've gone back up. at one point -- at what point do we see an end and do the markets care? jonathan: can we keep looking through it, that seems to be the big moment. the president of the united states has just touched down in and borough, scotland and will arrive in glasgow. we get leaders statements starting about 9:00 eastern time , the president of the united states is third in-line so we will hear from him, 9:10, 9:15. live on bloomberg tv and radio. lisa: how much will he talk to the international audience versus home, and which audience will he speak to? jonathan: that's interesting, as he engages abroad, we could get something done domestically this week in the united states. kailey: "could" is the operative word. they'd like to see votes in the
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house and senate for the bipartisan package, but even bernie sanders was saying we should iron things out in the senate before we send that package to the house. in theory, this week could be live in terms of getting something done but there is always a question mark on capital bill -- capitol hill. jonathan: glasgow, scotland, that takes place in about 54 minutes. you will hear from the leaders at about 9:00 eastern time, the president third in-line. sitting in this seat, there has always been an order for me to cover this industry. working in this industry is difficult and we are always very happy when someone we like gets a new seat. troy gayeski has got a new seat. congratulations. just talk to me about the new seat you've got. what's going to change? troy: incredibly excited to join fs investments as chief market
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strategist, a firm i've known since 2013 when i had a dutch had the pleasure of meeting -- had the pleasure of meeting the owner. they took investment excellence and found pretty unique ways to package sophisticated strategies so that retail investors could actually access them. as you remember, our industry in the early stage, sophisticated alternatives were for sovereign wealth funds or pensions, so working with a fund's dna is tied to finding ways for retail investors to participate, very exciting. as you know, one of the biggest challenges for all investors is what to do with fixed income allocation, and they have a variety of exciting solutions. jonathan: i will never underestimate anybody's ability in this industry to deliver a marketing pitch. troy: i do what i can. jonathan: the federal reserve, big buildup. how much pushback this week? troy: i don't think there will
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be a lot of pushback from the fed. they will talk more broadly about being patient, but at the end of the day, and lisa brought this up, markets are getting more comfortable with the probability of hiking at least twice next year. that's good news from a standpoint of market stability, but other than that, what will stop this rally -- and i disagree with mike wilson, with all due respect -- it will probably go into january, when the quiddity starts to wane -- liquidity starts to wane. the nominal gdp, and given the seasonality, we expect the green light to stay go but as we get into next year, the light is starting to flash yellow because as the fed tapers, you will have slower m2 growth as markets focus more on the potential hikes. you will see that flatline and that's where we could have multiple corrections. lisa: another way of tracking this is the real yield.
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lori calvo seen no was saying what's behind the rally is that yields remain so negative on a real basis in the 10 year and five years base, meaning inflation expectations are rising faster than nominal yield. at what point do you expect that to reverse, if at all? is this unsustainable? troy: go back to the last cycle. we only got to real yields towards the front end in the powell hiking regime and the markets did not take that well. next year, a couple accidents could happen. the fed is forced to tighten faster, even if they should they probably won't. the bond market starts to price in meaningfully higher inflation like we are living in, and should get the big back and in the curve. closer to flat. i do so closer to flat, and that leads to some type of dislocation.
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at multiples at these levels, and you think about where yields are rising and where liquidity will slow down, it is time to diversify into alternatives. jonathan: i often say the strategists job to read bedtime stories to people nervous about the market and help them sleep at night and stay invested, is that harder or easier? troy: it is easier because it is a risk on environment and there is a lot more fomo than during the eurozone crisis or 2015/2016. the challenge is to get investors to focus on other aspects -- assets where they might have less upside but also less downside. other more hybrid strategies incorporate fixed income, things that can hit the mid to high single digit return with less downside when the inevitable happens next year.
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jonathan: always listening. troy: that's good. i'm always listening to you too. jonathan: troy gayeski. nothing seems to stick. lisa: i'm not actually pessimistic over the next be months. jonathan: just a little bit. lisa: i see lori calvasina's argument of real nields -- real yields being so negative, where are you going to go? jonathan: all-time highs on the s&p 500. are we going to cut that and replay that? lisa: press the button. jonathan: kailey leinz info tom keene. your equity market advancing one half of 1%. i will be on repeat all week -- what a week coming up. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: what the first word news -- laura: there's a change at the top of barclays.
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jes staley is stepping down amidst an investigation of how he characterized his ties to jeffrey epstein. on friday, staley and the british brink -- bank received preliminary conclusions. staley intends to contest the findings. parkways will replace staley. british prime minister boris johnson is expected to deliver a stark warning at the start of the united nations climate change summit in glasgow. johnson will say "it is one minute to midnight and we need to act now." he will call on leaders to improve their promises after the g20 summit produced a lukewarm agreement. u.s. and european union have reached a tear of busting -- tariff busting agreement. it would penalize countries that don't meet low carbon targets when producing the metals.
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coca-cola reportedly is buying full control of the sport drink body armor for $5.6 billion. according to dow jones, that values the brand around eight alien dollars. the estate of the late basketball star kobe bryant will receive more than $400 million for his stake. also from the world's richest person, elon musk tells the united nations if it can prove they can solve world hunger, he will sell tesla stock. the head of the world food program called on mosque and bezos to come -- musk and jeff bezos to come up with $60 billion. global news 24 hours a day, on air and bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. than 120 countries.
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♪ >> one of the other reasons why it's so important to get childcare provision through his
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that's also going to help with inflation. we've got a lot of people who are unable to return to the labor market because they can't get childcare that the drag on our economy and creating upward pressure. jonathan: it's the continued push in washington, d.c., transportation secretary pete buttigieg. alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro with kailey leinz. your equity market is up 20 -- 21. all-time highs in this equity market to start a brand-new trading week. into the treasury market, up three basis points on tens to 1.5838. the repricing all about the front end of the curve whether it is the u.k., australia, or the united states, we are heading higher. lisa: a massive pricing -- repricing of rate hikes sooner. this massive dawn we talked about last week, but i wonder how much freedom central banks
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have to act given that risk markets are not faltering. i don't know what to make of that. jonathan: how much of a big deal should we make of goldman coming out and saying july next year? lisa: it is capitulation to what people are thinking broadly, what does the fed do? the employment cost index rising to the degree it did gives power to the fed to say maybe we ought to tighten sooner. jonathan: a very interesting meeting this week with chairman powell. we will take that special coverage as always on bloomberg tv and radio. a report from "the washington post" -- "janet yellen said democrats should be able to approve a fixed to the debt ceiling without gop support if necessary." emily wilkins, your take? emily: secretary janet yellen seems willing to say what a lot of democrats are thinking but
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don't want to go public with, if republicans don't come along, they will have to do this via reconciliation. they will need to raise the debt ceiling. it will be much worse for them if they do not. senate minority leader mitch mcconnell from kentucky said repeatedly republicans will not join with democrats on raising the debt limit long-term and it is something democrats need to do on their own. secretary yellen seems to put two and toast go together and say, we are going -- two and two together and say, we are going to have to do reconciliation. this is a process that takes multiple weeks. they are potentially looking at december 3 deadline, although they could use extraordinary measures to extend that into 2022, but if democrats want to address it before the new year, they might need to start the process in a few weeks. lisa: i love this quote from janet yellen -- "i don't want to
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play chicken and not end up raising the debt ceiling." there has been a shift in washington, perhaps a reality check, but perhaps more cohesion among democrats as they work to get a vote this week. is that real? emily: you are seeing democrats come together. at the end of the day, democrats are aware their party stands to benefit from this package being passed and without it, they are looking at a potential bloodbath for the 2022 midterms. you are seeing progress being made. they have come more together, but they are not quite there yet. they were initially teeing up for a vote on tuesday on the bipartisan infrastructure plan and the social infrastructure and tax plan, that vote not likely to happen, but could happen by the end of the week. next week, the house and senate are scheduled to be back in their districts, so it sets up a deadline.
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another important element on timing, if the house votes this week on both of those bills, the infrastructure bill is going to president biden's desk but the social spending and welfare bill heads to the senate where it could easily go, get some tweaks and go back to the house. this could take until the end of the month or longer. lisa: is this enough for the virginia gubernatorial race, as president biden has been stumping for the democratic incumbent who has been living -- and has been losing popularity? emily: this is not what the devin leonard -- democratic nominee wanted to pass -- wanted to happen. it is a tight race in a state president biden won by 10 percentage points, and that's not really democrats -- not really where democrats want to be. even if he winds up pulling off a win, this will be something they will have to go back and analyze what went wrong. terry mcauliffe, the last-minute
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hope for a win and something more he could play for the democrats, and that's going to set him up for a competitive race. kailey: how will the virginia race tomorrow set the tone for the midterms? emily: virginia, despite the fact that it did go for president biden with a pretty considerable margin is really seen as a swing state, particularly with a lot of suburban voters that we saw go for democrats in 2018 and now democrats are trying to keep, republicans are trying to back. this gubernatorial race is expected to be a bellwether for that. another thing to keep in mind is exactly how much influence former president donald trump is playing. democratic nominee mcauliffe invoked trump a lot and tried to tie his opponent glenn young can to trump.
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the republican nominee has tried to do the balancing act where he hasn't fully embraced trump but hasn't tried to create too much distance between him. if that works out. that if that works out, that will provide a roadmap for other republican and swing districts to go forward. jonathan: isn't this really strange the race is coming down to one candidate trying to make this a referendum on the current president and the other a referendum on the foreign press -- former president? emily: there are at their desk other issues at play, education, what role parents should play. that's been a big component of this race, those particular issues. jonathan, you are absolutely right. both democrats and republicans see this phrase as sort of an early testing ground for what will happen with the 2022 midterms. that's why you see more focus on the national message, even
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though obviously this is only to be governor of one state. jonathan: emily wilkins, government reporter in washington, d.c. this has to be the number one political event in this country. lisa: you framed it well, basically a referendum on one president or another, and it highlights the tribal politics. i wonder if it is because there is too much nuance in the market and too hard to tribal eyes and you go back to the lightning rod. jonathan: breaking news, i mentioned in the last couple of hours that spurs, the north london football team had lost their manager. this is tom keene's team. rumored to maybe be in the running for the job. i stressed "rumored" and "maybe." first statement from tom keene -- "crushed, just crushed." is he upset, trying to
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get the job? i'm trying to make him a candidate. lisa: trying to push a narrative. you go. jonathan: just break for a little bit, a six-month about a goal at the end of the season. lisa: he will take a road trip. jonathan: he likes touring europe. this could work. they are not in europe much.
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jonathan: every time i go to call this a teflon stock market i worry that is the day we get the correction. you throw everything at it and we keep running at a record high. s&p futures positive .4%. a slimmer lift on the nasdaq. -- a similar lift on the nasdaq. everything you throw on it, it is not sticking. get to the bond market. amazing to think how much we have priced into the front end of the yield curve and the equity market will not grind lower, lisa. lisa: you heard me? jonathan: on two through 50 basis points. we have real rate repricing at the front end of the treasury curve. at the front end in australia
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the rba has not stepped in. we basically doubled the front end of the u.k. and the united states in more than a month. lisa: some people say earnings have been so good, they crushed it. other people say liquidity is still going. pick your narrative and you can get legitimate data points to back it up. jonathan: if i said amazon would deliver the numbers they delivered and apple, too, that is what we got. lisa: is a tough one. jonathan: you will call it a teflon market? lisa: i am not. jonathan: i did not say either. let's finish on crude. wti looks like this. the president wants opec-plus to step in and do more. we can talk about the contradiction as well. 83.72 on wti. will opec respond? crude up .2%.
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that is the process at price action. let's get you some movers. we can do that with romaine bostick. romaine: it is all about the future. a lot of bets on the future. tesla closed out the month at a record high. stop that it been range bound for much of q2 and q3 rally 43%. starting out the new month up 4%. also in the ev space lucid motors up about 8% in the premarket. it finally delivered its first vehicle on saturday. stocks rallied 53% last week. we are talking about a stock that if this percentage hold it will have a market value that rivals ford motor company. harley davidson getting a boost. all of the companies exposed to the steel and aluminum tariffs and more portly the retaliatory tariffs the eu had imposed on
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motorcycles, liquor, and all of other things all rallying. bloomberg reported that a truce has been set, not necessarily written down, but that should be done by december. harley davidson up about 8%. keep an eye on the vaccine stocks. novavax finally seems to be getting those rolling submissions going. they had who submissions last month and the eu submissions last week and getting word this morning they finally submitted canadian papers. they will seek u.s. approval by the end of this year. meanwhile moderna going in the opposite direction, down 3% after the fda said it needed a little bit more time to analyze the covid vaccine for teenagers, 12 to 17-year-old. this is the semiconductor company that went public last week. a lackluster debut. it fell on thursday and rallied
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on friday and making up ground. this is the third biggest ipo of the year in the u.s.. jonathan: thank you as always. looking forward to the close later this afternoon. kailey leinz, your thoughts on lucid. we do have a market cap the equivalent of ford on a few million dollars of sales? kailey: it goes to show the equity market is not always attached to the fundamentals. you could have also made that argument about tesla. the numbers they've been putting up lately have been pretty good. do they support the equity where it is? jonathan: tesla is the $1 trillion company trading like a penny stock. unbelievable. lisa: is it a car company? jonathan: they make cars, don't they? lisa: is at the main business? jonathan: should we value the stock as a tech company is what you're getting at. lisa: you talk about companies being what they are because it is main purpose.
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i wonder if we will think of tesla as a battery company or a space company. jonathan: interesting. lisa: is there snark? jonathan: i did not spend enough time thinking about that. why do you think everything i say is snarky? it is authentic reaction. i am fascinating listening. joining us is the global debt and rate strategy had at ing. we have going through the central bank decisions, the bank of england, the federal reserve, what do you make of the repricing of rate expectations we see? >> is overdue, i would say. the front end of the u.k. curve is a step ahead of the rest. there has been a big -- of the
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front handle of the u.s. curve. a really benign reflection of where we wanted to go. we have to remember if you buy a two year today and november 2020 3 -- that matures in november 2023 in all probability there will be quite a through -- quite a few rate hikes between now and november 2023. when i look at that two or three rate hikes think it is neutral and we are a bit more aggressive than the marketplace in terms of rate hike expectations. it should be up close to 100 basis points. last time the fed pulled the trigger the two year was up 90 basis points. the fed night -- the fed might not pull the trigger anytime soon. it is quite a move. the one that looks little bit off as the front end of the
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euro, we are not convinced that is as true as it sounds in terms of rate hike expectations. lisa: some people argue the reasons why markets are not responding is because it is not when the fed lifts off, it is how many hikes there are, and if there is a sooner hike it means a shorter cycle and we will see growth decelerate significantly thereafter. do you buy into that narrative that we are bringing them forward, we are not increasing the number of hikes are making it a tighter cycle? padhraic: i think the issue is the room that is provided to the fed by the 10 year curve. we look at the 10 year today. it is one .60. it -- it is 1.60. it has had a tendency to fall. it is important that rises towards 2% so the fed has room to hike. if that drips down towards 1.50 or 1.40 there's an issue.
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it is why the two years having a difficulty because the tenure should not be at 1.60. there is a real dilemma in terms of where the two year should be going. kailey: where would that 40 basis points of upside come from? what catalyst? padhraic: one of the interesting thing in terms of we should get a taper announcement for the fed. the big thing is not the fact the fed will be buying less. we know that is what taper means . the important thing is the fed will morph from adding reserves to taking reserves out of the system. they will take about $1 trillion out of the system and that is where the pressure will count and it will force rates up and it will put pressure on risk assets. not a lot is spoken about that. lisa: -- jonathan: you think the chairman has some form of consensus? do you think it exists?
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we heard from jim bianco and bianco research. he said the chairman is probably finding it difficult at the news conferences because it is hard to put together a consensus and reflected in the news conference. does that resonate with you? padhraic: it does, but i think it is clear if you listen to chair powell he has slowly moved from being ultra dovish to a serious hint of hawkish nest. it does appear to us that he does have the committee. going with the tapering -- the technicals on the front end absolutely demanded. we have 1.5 trillion dollars going back to the fed last friday, which is the measure of access of liquidity. that need to be addressed. that is why the taper make sense from a technical perspective. it is relatively easy to pull
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off. jonathan: great to catch up with you. padhraic garvey. a drippy moment for the chairman of the federal reserve. lisa: i do not see why they wanted taper at this point. jonathan: that is done. lisa: the issue is how much will they push back against rate hikes and why would they even do that? i do not understand why they would push back the special employment cost index where it was on friday. jonathan: that is the issue. i know it sounds childish, but if you do not push back sufficiently -- you have to be so careful about what you say because the market participants start to think limited pushback, maybe they are leading that way, let's add some more. forgive me to all of the rates people out there, the market does behave a little bit like a toddler pushing its boundaries waiting for somebody to say enough. lisa: it definitely seems to be the way he reacted in 2013.
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some people have come out with notes saying the toddler is now a teenager and dealing with the guidance a little bit more. we can get into the parenting analogies. jonathan: these are highly educated toddlers. let me throw that out there. lisa: we all are. jonathan: your equity market up .4% on the s&p, advancing 20 points. and i slipped in the equity markets. -- a nice lift in the equity markets. their reasons for a lot of people this market should perhaps go lower. your bond market, yields up three basis points on 10. on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. laura: jes staley is out as ceo of barclays.
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the bank says it was made aware of the preliminary findings on friday night and says staley plans to contest the findings. it will be replaced by the head of barclays markets division. more than 5 billion people around the world have died from the coronavirus less than two years after it was first documented. still the arrival of black scenes -- of vaccines has/fatality rates. the death rate has returned to what was seen during the first year of the pandemic when the virus was still taking hold. france and the u.k. are headed for a full confrontation in the next two days over fishing rights. on tuesday the french government is set to introduce additional controls on goods moving across its border with the u.k. british fishing boats will be blocked from unloading their caption france as a response to what paris sees as unjustified
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restrictions on french fishing boats. in china the economy slowed further. power shortages and rising commodity prices weighed on manufacturing. the official manufacturing managers index fell below the market signal. meanwhile, strict coronavirus controls put the brakes on holiday spending. moderna says u.s. regulators need more time to assess whether it's coronavirus vaccine can be used for children ages 12 to 17. the fda is reviewing international analysis on the vaccination risks of a heart condition. the review they not be complete before january. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> there is a misperception in the market that the long end of the yield curve is flattening in
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that show some kind of economic problem. as long as the credit is ok the economy is moving forward and earnings are going up the market goes up. jonathan: the market keeps going up. that was tony dwyer. from new york city, alongside lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro together with kailey leinz. tom keene back tomorrow morning. your equity market higher, up .4% on the s&p. the curve a bit steeper this morning. tends up three in the front end up about one basis point. the 10 year .50 873. euro-dollar positive more than .1%. we love to check in with where guesstimates are ahead of friday. 450 is your median estimate. the highest is 750,000, the lowest -- morgan stanley saying
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we expect the decline in the delta variant and the reopening of stores and the full expiration of unemployment insurance benefits to drive labor force participation gains this month. they are looking for 460,000. lisa: i wonder what the market reaction will be to a big miss? will it be rates lower or rates higher because it means the market is tighter than people have expected given how much some of the employment cost have been going up. jonathan: did you think we would still be here talking about ranges of 450,000 on payrolls day? lisa: it is not what people were indicating. they thought there would be some kind of all clear and we would get the idea of reopening by september pushed back to october pushed back to never. we hear anyone talking about a moment where it will be over? jonathan: thomas koster on the low end, 250,000. kailey: we had a wide range for september as well but the number came in below all the forecast.
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it shows you how hard it is to forecast in this post-pandemic economic environment. no one knows what is going to happen. a lot of the dynamics that were supposed to hit the labor market in september. the return to school, that did not happen. the question is did that happen to a larger degree in october? jonathan: michael mckee joining us now. no forecast for this meeting. this is getting hard to forecast. maybe it is a good thing to skip this one. michael: we know what will happen. we know they will taper. if they do not the markets will go crazy and the fed does not like that to happen. expect tapering and $15 billion a month as they set up for some sort of rate increase possibility next year if things do not change. obviously we talked about the goldman call from july and bank of america fourth-quarter rate increases. this is a way station along the
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way. this is a big week for central banks around the world. the market view has shifted. we are going to see action in all of the markets around the world. it is only a question of who goes when and how far did they go. the bank of england expected to move this week and a big question about how the reserve bank of australia moves. ". we are 2 -- close call.s lisa: how closely our central bankers watching stockmarkets? stockmarkets are giving them a green light. michael: they want stockmarkets to gauge market reaction but it does not influence their decision as much as the economic data. you saw the reserve bank of australia. they had an interest rate yield curve control target which they let go on friday. you saw the two year rates skyrocket there.
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they are all getting ready because inflation is high and we are getting a little bit back to normal. they are getting ready to start moves. it will be a question of how hard lego and went winter they feel they have to go. i do not think stockmarkets will have a big influence on that. kailey: does it not matter where the inflation is coming from? we have had a lot of commodities related inflation. on the wage front we saw the employment cost index on friday. is that the kind of inflation central bankers have to pay attention to? michael: it is the kind of inflation central bankers have to pay more attention to. the question is does that kind of inflation continue? do we see a series of wage gains for workers versus a one-off as they try to get people back to work? it does not look like there is a wage price spiral developing but that is what the fed and other central banks have to keep in mind as they go forward. lisa: has the federal reserve
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failed to divorce the idea of tapering bond purchases with rate hikes? michael: they have divorce the idea, but even the fed admits they have made it clear they do not want to start raising rates until they have finished tapering because then you're working at cross purposes. you are adding stimulus to the economy at the same time you're taking it away. the timing of when the fed would finish would tell you something about when they might be able to start raising rates, which is why goldman moved it to july 27 of 2022. let's all make a date to be here for that. we will see what happens. that also gives time to see if inflation is transitory. if it starts to fade into 2022. interestingly enough, a lot of economists are predicting that will happen. it is not clear it will be a rate increase right away. jonathan: how much flexibility
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does that have on the unwind? could they go quicker? could we get a sign of that at this meeting? michael: they could. that is one of the things some economists are pointing to. if he says it is on on autopilot that leaves the market uncertain about how they react to inflationary pressures if they continue. they are expecting him to say we will adjust if necessary. we do not think it will be necessary, but do not think we will be on autopilot as you did during the last taper. we are going to react to the data as they come in. jonathan: are we taking bets on whether you get the last question or not? michael: you should and see if you can make any money. i would not know how to place a bet on myself. jonathan: mike mckee, thank you. i have no idea what happens next year. no one with any certainty has any idea. for markets and market
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participants, what matters is the changing probabilities around what happens that has shifted when it comes to rates in the last several months. lisa: what is the benefit to jay powell pushing back on the idea of rate hikes? michael gapen of barclays wrote in saying he i would be shocked if he pushes back on rate hikes. i wonder what a shorter cycle looks like given how much debt is out there. jonathan: can risk assets hold up? isn't this what tony dwyer started the conversation with? tony's view is if you do not have a recession equities keep going higher. lisa: what determines a recession? jonathan: you just use the term shorter cycle. lisa: what is the trigger. if it is not a policy era -- error, is it a cooling off of activity? jonathan: amazing we have economists forecasting 4% gdp growth and there is this
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conversation on the side about end of cycle. lisa: danny blanchflower is leading the conversation. jonathan: he will join us on wednesday. i did that one for you. lisa: thank you. jonathan: from new york -- mi i getting bullied today? lisa: no. jonathan: a bit. lisa: it is good to have you back. ♪
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♪ >> the market is certainly testing the limits of central banks. >> i'm hearing a lot about fiscal tightening and i'm not sure i buy it. >> the market is being pushed and pulled by what i believe. >> supply chains and unemployment are good problems to have. >> it tells us there is more inflationary pressure. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: new month, old story. for our audience

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