tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg October 27, 2021 10:00am-11:00am EDT
alix: it is 10:00 in new york. 30 minutes until the trading day here in new york. happy wednesday. guy johnson is off the rest of the week. francine, we have tons of earnings, a budget in the u.k., but what everyone is talking about, shiba inu, a joke on a joint of a crypto coin, and now it is so hot, people are trying to get robinhood to enable it to be treated. francine: this is the joke of the joke that keeps on moving markets. it may force robinhood to put it on the platform. looking at the commentary around it, it is now more valuable than some indian tech firms. piling on the pressure.
if we get enough momentum, like we saw with reddit stocks, this will get momentum. alix: that is the fun story. now let's get to the other stuff happening in the markets. we get a ton of numbers coming out. the s&p is up .2%. consumer discretionary leading the way. oil prices are getting kicked out of bed, down by a full percentage point. you are dealing with earnings, margins, input costs. on the other site, in the bond market, a ferocious move led by the u.k.. u.k. growth will be better than expected this year. you have a budget that is bigger than expected but you have some serious buying coming in. yields down by 12% in the u.k. even though inflation is at a three-decade high in the u.k.
possibly this year, but we will dig through that. francine: also, we are hearing from the bank of canada who says they will move away from quantitative easing to reinvestment but have also adjusted the time for those rate hikes. a big day of earnings on both sides of the atlantic. senate democrats unveiled a billionaires tech proposal. annmarie hordern has the details. escalating tensions between beijing and washington as top military officers called china the biggest threat to the u.s. michael mckee also digging into the strengths we see in capital investment. abigail doolittle is looking at earnings highlights. after weeks of negotiations among democrats, they are closer to a plan to fund president biden's social spending by shifting the tax burden to the wealthiest in america. for more on this is annmarie
hordern. how big of a breakthrough is this? annmarie: there are two different approaches, and one of them is a breakthrough, the 15% minimum corporate tax. even if you are able to skirt some of it, and be able to get some of that money back, it will be black and white. if you are a company that makes billions of dollars, 15% of what you report to corporate shareholders, you'll have to pay a tax on that. kyrsten sinema of arizona, a hurdle for the hike of the corporate tax rate, says that she think this could be a compromise, a way forward, a common sense approach. the second tech proposal be got at 5:00 eastern time this morning -- so we are still digesting it -- that is the billionaires tax. that would target about seven hundred individuals, the wealthiest in the united states.
it would target the wealthy accumulate through stocks and bonds. that would get a gain. say in 2000 you about $2 billion worth of stock and now it is worth $30 billion, that 28 billion dollars, you would have to pay income tax on. that is what we are hearing from the house lawmakers and senate lawmakers, whether they think that is a reasonable way forward. already the house ways and means committee chairman thinks this could have hurdles because it could face challenges in the court. alix: we are hearing from the white house that biden and senators cinema and mansion have made progress. thanks very much, annmarie hordern. u.s.-china tensions escalating once again, washington barring a major telecom firm from operating in the u.s. over security concerns. meanwhile, general mark milley says that china is the greatest
geopolitical threat to this country. he spoke to david rubenstein. >> no question in my mind the biggest geostrategic challenge to the united states will be china, no doubt. russia is not unimportant. russia has significant military capabilities. north korea, iran will be there. but china is the most significant geostrategic threat we face. alix: with us now is our regulatory reporter. walk us through the significance of general milley discussing this, and what happened overnight with this telecom company. >> what general milley is discussing is a piece of the atmosphere that pervades washington, people are worried about china from top to bottom. at the federal communications commission, including republicans and democrats, have voted to bar this telecom
company. chairwoman rosenworcel said that the problem is, these chinese state owned telecommunication companies are suspected of mis-routing traffic , taking domestic u.s. traffic and taking it through chinese servers for no good reason. politicians in washington think for nefarious reasons. misrouting traffic or surveillance. those suspicions persist on the tech front and may only grow. rosenworcel says that the fcc will put forward its consideration against two other chinese telik medication companies, and a drone maker being under suspicion from a republican member of the fcc. meanwhile, the fcc is also looking -- there is more to come is what i'm saying. francine: thank you so much.
we will have more on that interview later in the hour and on david rubenstein's show tonight at 9:00. strength in business investment, orders placed with factories rose in september or the seventh straight month. michael mckee has all of the details. michael: the good news is business investment is rising but overall durable goods orders fell 5.4% largely because of jet aircraft. and you cannot get cars, so not as many orders being placed. this is a picture of the problem in the u.s. economy. this is a supply chain snarled. the white line is business orders. they are up to record levels at this point. this is shipments. they are ordering but they cannot get the goods. that's a real question for the
economy going forward. tomorrow, we get gdp numbers. we will be looking to see if companies are able to sell goods, to get the goods they need. this is business investment up to the third quarter. if it keeps rising, that should be good news. there is a feeling we will see a lower than expected gdp number this quarter. third quarter ended at the end of september and people are not sure where we are. you look at this and you have to say things are not too bad. the question is how wall street takes it. the gdp we have had a sense the pandemic, and even the expected 2.6 percent tomorrow is higher than we were in the five or six years before the pandemic it. the numbers are still coming in good. businesses are investing and americans are spending like crazy. does the rest of it at up?
a lot of wall street focus will be on tomorrow's number. alix: thank you, michael mckee. the u.k. upgraded its growth for this year. will growth actually surprise to the upside for the united states, particularly as fiscal stimulus has been so strong? politico is reporting that senator manchin and synema will be meeting again at 10:30. tech companies, consumer products are leading the gains today. abigail doolittle is looking at that. abigail: let's start with those consumer companies you were talking about, coca-cola and mcdonald's being rewarded for strong reports, beating on the top and bottom line. coca-cola also raising their outlook on reopening strength. mcdonald's, consumers in the u.s., larger orders, absorbing
higher prices. visa put out a small beat but the outlook was disappointing, as well as texas instruments. the outlook weighing on the chip space. as for chip names, let's take a look at what is happening. microsoft, another beat, this happening since the third quarter of 2016. basically five years of earnings beats, the cloud helping there. alphabet up 2.3%. sales being driven by that add strength. robinhood, the lowest ipo price. crypto trading coming in well below estimates. those shares are being punished to a degree. twitter also down 8.4%. the stock is lower, fourth quarter sales range a little bit soft. investors, analysts, strategists wondering if they can build out
there and business over the next few years. you can see, traders are not so optimistic there. alix: later on, we will be talking to ned segal, the twitter cfo, on how those opportunities will grow. coming up, banks, airlines, energy. james jackson discusses his favorite sectors that. this is bloomberg. ♪
margins, looking at the overall market. alix: that was matt skin from john hancock. joining us now is jordan jackson. i like what he said about the war on margins. you could've made that argument on this quarter because we had rising input costs, but we had not seen that because demand is so strong. you think we see a war on margins? jordan: i think we do, and for the reasons that we highlighted. higher wages, input costs, but the key is, will companies pass on those higher costs to the consumer? a lot of companies are worried about the health and resilience of the consumer, on passing on those higher costs, potentially impacting demand down the road. they are sitting on a lot of cash, they can stomach higher wages and input costs in the
coming quarters, but that it becomes a bit of a concern. francine: not all sectors are created equally.if you are a luxury company, you can maybe increase your price is 30%, maybe not the same if you are selling toothpaste or something more essential. who has the better margins going forward? jordan: you want to look at companies, and it boils down to operating leverage. if you think about walmart, a big box store, goods coming through the door -- you think about gas prices, across the country, gas prices are above three dollars a gallon. the immediate pass-through effect on some of those retailers. those with net operating leverage like tech companies can probably stomach those pressures
a little better in the quarters ahead. alix: in terms of sectors that you like, you like financials, energy, industrial. we have a pretty intense bull plattner today, energy prices started to roll over a touch. it is now the time to get into those sectors, or has the jews already been squeezed? -- juice already been squeezed? jordan: energy is up 16%, financials and materials are up. when you focus in on financials, you see a bit of a bull flattening, but when you look at the trend, we are expecting a pretty big steepening out of those margins. we think about energy prices. the sector itself has yet to catch up to the rise we have seen in oil prices. wti up about 75% on the year.
i think there is room left to go there. we have not had airline travel pick back up. that could bring another source of demand for energy and oil prices in the quarters ahead. this reflation trade, cyclical value parts of the market still have another 12 months to run. francine: a while ago we had the bank of canada accelerating its potential timing of rate hikes. what does that do to equities overall? jordan: it certainly spells concern for your longer duration equities, those that have higher valuations, that will be more sensitive to changes in interest rates. the concern is a lot of those rate hikes, you see the bank of canada, bank of england, expected to rate may be prematurely, and the fed, you are now seeing the first rate hike being priced in the in august of next year.
i think that is a little bit aggressive. i think the fed will take a wait-and-see approach to see how inflation evolves next year. but there is certainly a risk. that being said, where interest nominal rates are today are a long way away from spelling any concern for equity market performance, particularly where you are in the early innings of the expansion. alix: we got to get your take on industrials. you are bullish on them as well. the readthrough has not been bad. they can pass on those higher costs. how do you play it? jordan: airlines will do well. talks about physical infrastructure spending, could provide a tailwind to the construction and mining parts of the industrial sector. there are a few things underneath the hood happening, demand coming back online, additional fiscal dollars moving
their way into the sector as well, that i think provides support there. francine: thank you so much, jordan jackson. coming up, plenty more on the markets. boeing shares down this morning after a factory disruption. we will be speaking with an analyst who is bullish on the stock, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
boeing is still trying to resolve some of the problems, repair relations with regulators , trying to lighten its debt burden. what potential do you see at boeing? >> thank you for having me. the real potential is there are not many markets that are 30% to 50% below prior covid levels. the reason for the buy rating is the pickup and aerospace. we think aerospace is under owned in the investor community and the rate of growth have been pretty significant in 2022. no doubt that the near-term is tepid to say the least, and that is displayed by the cash outflow in q3 which was better than expected. it was a positive benefit to cash given they have some 737's and 787's still on the parking
lot. given how bad things have been over 2021. alix: a down was defense and security. for so many years, that was a bright spot for these guys. when can we call bottom on that? sheila: i don't it is defense being necessarily week. i think you see certain players like boeing, lockheed -- yesterday saying revenues will be down 1% in 2022. boeing is in a similar boat but we don't have this embedded into our forecasts. the winners in our defense group re-think on northrup. they report tomorrow. there will be a little bit of a dichotomy in defense. the market is growing at a 2%
clip, and then you have some growing at 5% plus, and then others may be flatlined. boeing has been one of the bigger ones as they have development programs, they are not seeing a big ramp in revenues yet. francine: are some of the aerospace and defense immune to inflation? sheila: it seems so from the earnings we have seen so far. the defense side, contract costs are being passed through to the government. whether it is fixed-price contracts are price plus. we are seeing inflation being passed through to the customer. some of our coverage, raytheon technology, labor intensive issues. they are highlighting that as a more challenging environment rather than monitoring inflation. aerospace and defense have
historically been immune to inflation. alix: you have cost inflation rising but you also have supply chain issues. i wonder how boeing will capitalize on that. they are converting some of their jets into freighters. how much of the market could they capture, how much of a topline driver could that be? sheila: we think the cargo market is in adjacent market that is helpful but by no means the driver. the biggest driver is boeing commercial, 60% of sales. it is really all about the max. about 20 per month now, slated to go to 31 per month in early 2022. we think producers are in the low 20's, so we need to see china and asian countries start taking in the max to see a pickup. freighter market has been study but we really don't have that as incrementally positive to earnings. alix: we appreciate it.
thank you very much. we are watching shares of twitter. the stock is dropping after earnings lagged expectations. we will catch up with cfo ned segal. in the bond market, canadian two-year yields are seeing an unbelievable move right now. huge selloff happening as they are bringing forward their right height expectations by 26 basis points? francine: that was unexpected. the loonie also grinding lower. dollar-looney dropping right now. alix: 22 basis point move there. this is bloomberg. ♪
third-quarter results that lacked wall street estimates. joining us now is ned segal, twitter cfo, as well as emily chang. i will handed over to you, emily. emily: twitter cfo ned segal with us now on the back of earnings results. revenue is up 37% year-over-year. you said the apple at tracking issues and supply issues were not having as big of an impact on advertising as we have seen in other places. is that a longer term trend you expect to keep up over the holidays? ned: we see positive trends in the business broadly. 13% growth over the year. delivering 37% revenue growth gives us the brand at our back going into q4. we see a lot of advertising for services and digital goods on twitter. that is more than half of the ad revenue we get. although you can see great ads
for phones and tv's and other physical goods where there may be supply chain constraints, there's also a lot happening around streaming services and movies, services and digital goods such as our map business, which grew faster than overall revenue. lots of great things that we think can help us continue the momentum going into q4. emily: shares are down significantly over three months. we are investors seeing the weaknesses, what are they concerned about? ned: you will know better than i some other things they might be concerned about this morning, but we were so pleased to share a few different areas that we are focused on as we go into q4. one is helping creatures get paid on twitter. for years, they have building their audience and then getting paid somewhere else. they will be able to monetize their audience on twitter
through ticketed spaces, tips, super follows, so many more things over time. we also plan to continue to invest to drive growth. we will grow expenses and headcount over 30% this year, and that posture will not change as we look ahead. there is so much we can do to better monetize our service. emily: how popular has the tip jar been so far, specifically tipping in general, and tipping in bitcoin, which is now allowed. ned: i have received some already but i'm giving it to charity, giving people the opportunity to play with the product. we think of tips as an example of how we want people to be paid. if you like what someone says, if you want to contribute to a gofundme with bitcoin through lightning wallop, or if you want to use the cash app, we want to make it as easy as possible to allow value of transfer of
transfer 11 person to another on twitter. we think about it less from the revenue perspective and more about helping people get paid. if we do that, there will be more great content and we will continue to grow our audience. alix: thanks for joining us. fair enough, but you will still want to grow your revenue and topline i wonder how much of the new product you are unveiling will contribute to the topline growth and when we can expect similar numbers there? ned: we grew revenue 36% this quarter, so i think you are seeing it already. we guided for the typical strength we see in q4. the olympics were such a strong event for us. we exceeded our expectations. when advertisers came, 12 out of 14 advertisers amplified on twitter. it's a great example of how we can deliver for advertisers. we came out with a new format
called the multi-destination carousel, so you can go to different places on an advertisers website. that is driving 20% better click through rates. alix: when you look at your user base, u.s. users were flat quarter on quarter. it brings back the conversation of are you at the u.s. saturation point. do you not need to grow that base but just monetizing that base, you are at saturation? ned: we want to get the rest of the world to use twitter. today, 211 million people around the world use it every day. 20% are in the u.s., the rest are outside. there are groups of other people that looked just like the 37 million people who use it every day in the u.s. the top of the funnel is really healthy. we just need to keep doing a better job of converting people, to make twitter a part of their daily ritual. we expect to continue the
seasonal trends we have seen. it is often flat in the middle of the year. we thought it would be flat to slightly up as we go to q4 based on product improvements, seasonality, all the events happening around the world. emily: i'm curious what you make of paypal's interest in pinterest. perhaps this is a sign that social media is maturing. is it, what does that mean for twitter? ned: i'm not sure what conclusions to draw from that, but something that we see, they see as well, is the ability to get creators paid and bring more commerce to our platform. we have launched business profiles, so that a business can differentiate themselves from yours or mine. they can have hours of operation, a link to their website, and we are also testing selling goods directly from the profile. giving people different
currencies, different ways to complete their transaction, bringing the transaction closer to where people are learning about goods and services on twitter is a big part of the opportunity for us. that may be what you are hearing from others as well. emily: one of the wilder theories i have heard is given jack's love of crypto, twitter and square, one day they could merge. how wild is that theory, any chance of something like that? ned: there is so much in our control at twitter with $150 billion and growing adjustable market to show ads to our people. we are so focused on those opportunities. that takes up all of our time. emily: social media is in the spotlight, definitely facebook. yesterday, you had executives testifying about the impact on
children. senator blumenthal said it is not enough to not be facebook. the bar is incredibly low. i wonder how you are watching this controversy surrounding facebook, anything that you are taking away or learning from it, what not to do? ned: we are proud of the principles that we used to run the company about how transparent and consistent we try to be when we are enforcing policies, hiring people, working with advertisers. you can look at great examples of this over the years, whether it is stopping taking political ads year ago when it was not the consensus thing to do. that is the way that you build trust with the people you service. when we put a button at the top of the home timeline to allow people to talk back and forth between a chronological timeline and one with our algorithm in it, that shows how we want to lead, giving people transparency and choice.
when you do that, you can attract and retain awesome teammates. you can show advertisers and content partners what your values are. we feel that has differentiated us in the market. emily: meantime, investors still need to buy into this story. jack has said the biggest thing is personalization, getting us to follow topics and not just users. how do you see that coming to fruition in 2022, should you be looking at other opportunities like the metaverse? ned: personalization has so much room to run, better notifications, helping you find almost 12,000 topics on twitter. we do the hard work finding the accounts that are talking about the things that you care about. continuing to improve your first few experiences, so we can introduce you to awesome follows, topics and events, and then bring you back to them at the right time. we are focused on continuing to
improve that experience when they come to twitter. emily: ned segal, thanks for joining us. cfo of twitter. alix: if you she the interview. -- appreciate the interview. oil inventory numbers are out, moving the oil markets. you saw a build from padd 3. more oil on the gold coast. -- gulf coast. cushing saw a 3 million barrel draw. we are at the lowest level since october 2018 in that main hub, so we are getting close to operational bottom in that area. that will be one place to watch, despite the bill that we saw in had three -- padd 3. i have to think it is not just the inventory number. francine: iran saying nuclear
talks will resume by the end of november. this feels like a pretty big breakthrough. nuclear talks have stalled since the election of the hardline cleric in june. iran has said that it was ready to resume talks soon but had so far failed to commit to a date, leaving observers decreasingly optimistic. now we have a date. maybe it is time they get back on track. alix: that has been the downside risk for the oil market, any meaningful turn from iran. brent trading under $85. this is bloomberg. ♪
chairman and ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪ let's check in on the first word news. democrats are trying a new and risky approach to taxation to help pay for president biden social agenda. they are proposing a tax that would affect about 700 people, those with at least a billion dollars in assets, and those who earned $100 million for three years in a row. meanwhile, a separate tax could require companies that report more than a billion dollars in profits to pay at least 50% in tax. and president biden is zeroing in on whether to renominate jerome powell as chairman of the federal reserve. the president has begun meeting with aids to review candidates and has not settled on a chair yet. it is unclear whether he will replace powell or replace him --
retain powell or replace him. xi told a military conference china must manage a modern system, at a time when the u.s. and china are rebalancing their forces to what the biden administration has called for to competition. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine: more on u.s. china relations in washington. general mark milley says that china is the greatest geopolitical threat to the united states. he discusses american security on the latest episode of the david rubenstein show. >> i think it is china, and i have said that publicly many times. as we look to the future, and i think we are living in an historical epic actually, where
we are seeing the rise of a country that is unlike something we have seen probably ever before. one of the great historical pivot points i think we have ever witnessed, which is the rise of china. from the reforms of 1979 up till today, 42 years or so, they have had an incredible economic run, and with that have developed a military that is the significant. as we go forward over the next 25 years, there is no question in my mind, the biggest geostrategic challenge to the united states will be china. russia is important, not unimportant at all, has significant military capabilities. north korea and iran are there. terrace will be around for a while. but china is the most significant geopolitical threat we face. >> there have been some reports that the chinese have a hypersonic missile that can
theoretically go into space and then come down with a nuclear bomb, escaping our ability to knock it down. is that something that americans should be worried about? >> i don't want to get too much into the classification of what we saw, but what we saw was a significant test of a hypersonic weapons system. it is very concerning. i saw in some of the newspapers, they used the term sputnik moment. i don't know if it is quite that but it is very close. it is a very significant technological test that occurred by the chinese. it has all of our attention. but that is just one weapon system. the chinese military capabilities are much greater than that. they are expanding rapidly in space, cyber, and in the traditional domains of land, sea, and air.
they have gone from a peasant-based infantry army to a very capable military that covers all of the domains and has global ambitions. china is very significant on our horizon. >> can i presume the united states has thought of doing a hypersonic missile as well and we are not completely caught flat-footed in our ability to be something like that ourselves? >> we are clearly experimenting and testing and developing technologies to include hypersonic's, artificial intelligence, a whole wide range. if you take a step back, what we are in history wise is one of the most significant changes in what i call the character of war. today with the introduction of precision munitions, being able to see all over the world, robotics, hypersonic's, this is an enormous change in the character of war. we will have to adjust the military going forward.
alix: that was general mark milley. tune into the full conversation on the david rubenstein show tonight at 9:00. in the morning when we came in, it was a risk off field to the markets, whether it was fx, bond, equity markets. you saw some buying come into the u.s., and then it shifted. maybe it was this interview coming out or hitting the record highs in the s&p's. then we saw some serious moves in the bond market. selling on the short end in the u.s., buying on the back and led by canada. francine: we heard from the bank of canada accelerating the timing of their rate hikes, so they said they would stop their bond buying program and moved to reinvestment. that also moved markets in canada significantly. the canadian dollar is now rising. overnight rates maintaining at
0.25%. it reminded me of what happened at the bank of england. you don't have one of the major central banks reprice, but if you say if they are hawkish, what does that mean for the fed? we are all using the same supply chain, so maybe something to look at deeper. alix: the difference is the canadian dollar is higher. when the boe gets more aggressive with rate hikes. in essence, they are pricing in a policy mistake. in the u.k., what i find interesting is the huge buying we are seeing across the curve. i wonder how much this is related to the budget and how borrower will be paired back. tax receipts are doing well. i wonder if that is a technical factor leading the bond market over there. francine: it could be. if you look at what we consider stagflation, what economists worry about, you could have a
prime example here in the u.k. one of the questions we need to dig deeper on is if you have this budget spending that was announced today that could be beneficial to sectors, what does that due to the sector when the bank of england is repricing some of their rates? it could be some of the yield buying on the back of what we heard on the budget, or it could be something more significant. alix: it is hard to parse out, and now we have some this kebab belated central-bank movement. lots more to discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪
shiba inu coin to its platform. it has driven the cryptocurrency to new heights. it was 100% over the last week. robinhood says it is considering adding new coins to its offerings. the price of bitcoin fell below $60,000 a day, the lowest intraday price in almost two weeks. analysts say speculators are cutting back on positions. the launch of the first bitcoin etf had launched prices to new highs. tom brady wants to throw a bitcoin to the tampa bay fan who ended up with the football he used to throw his 600 touchdown pass. brady asked the company to give the customer a bitcoin. one expert says the football could be worth up to $900,000. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: that is an amazing story. usually you go to the game and
catch the ball, cool. you don't walk away with $60,000. francine: i have to read the story three or four times just to get my head around why tom brady was doing this, and then i realized that he and his wife were involved in this. when you read up on stuff, they make sense. alix: when you actually read what you are talking about, which is a novel idea for us sometimes. what is interesting about bitcoin is how the introduction of these etf's, futures markets wind up distorting the curve or increasing the contango bc when spot prices are cheaper than future prices, and when you have to buy future contracts, you push the prices more ended because this interesting self fulfilling prophecy. i wonder how that will change once we see more future-backed etf's. francine: i love talking crypto, but if you are a crypto bull,
what would it take for you to turn bearish on that? as long as that doesn't change, there will be support at some point along with volatility. also, coinbase.com, we understand has been experiencing connectivity issues, so a major outage if you are trying to get connected. alix: that is it for the 10:00 a.m. our here. huge moves in the bond market. we will dissect that more. the u.k. upgraded its forecast for growth this year and inflation. we will break that down with john glenn. apparently, you are going to tax rose less for me. that is a good thing. this is bloomberg. ♪
alix: here is everything you need to know from europe at this hour. it is pub time time. alcohol duty rates are cut for lighter drinks. germany's growth scare. the company downgrade its growth cast to 2.6% as the company is squeezed by raw material shortages and rising energy prices. we will speak to christine mcwilliams. analysts say the results from deutsche bank were reasonable while still searching for the growth driver for the bank. in the midst of these headlines, noris moves in the bond market in the u.k., spreading to the u.s. and has now catapulted with the bank of canada being