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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  October 26, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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biontech's booster shot for kids 5 to 11 is being discussed today. it is highly effective and the benefits probably outweigh the risks. the panel may focus on myocarditis, a heart related side effect, that has been seen in younger men after getting the vaccine. house speaker nancy pelosi said democrats are at a decision point on what will be included and what will be left out of their economic agenda. speaking after a meeting with house democrats today, speaker pelosi said lawmakers are helping to move forward with a sweeping social spending package and vote on a separate infrastructure bill as soon as this week. president biden is hoping to have an agreement. . before he heads to europe. with their latest tax proposal democrats are going after an elusive target, u.s. billionaires. more than $5 trillion held by
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americans worth at least $1 billion according to the bloomberg billionaires index. yet, the tax bills did not rise the same extent. democrats are weighing a "billionaires tax" which would be an unprecedented levy on america's richest. european union greenhouse gas emissions were 31% lower in 2020 than they were in 1990. the european commission says that was due to the pandemic and carbon policies. for the first time in the eu renewables overtook fossil fuels last year as the main power source. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg. powered by more then 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, 7:00 p.m. in berlin. i am matt miller. here are the top stories from around the world. another big day for big tech and the markets. we preview what to expect from today's earnings after the bell. microsoft, twitter and alphabet, or google, all report. we get a glimpse into the market for combating age-related disease with the ceo of cameron biofarma. later in this hour with go outside silicon valley to napa valley to speak with the ceo of the famous silver oak winery. he talks about the supply chain and labor crisis.
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let's take a quick check of what is going on in markets and we have a new all-time high on the s&p 500. we were trading around 4600 for much of the session so we have given up the gains but still up. the u.s. 10 year yield coming under 162 at 161.7. the dollar has little change at $11.57 and west texas crude gaining almost one dollar. the real focus is on technology. twitter, microsoft and google report earnings after the u.s. market close today. joining us for a preview of what to expect is angelo zino, cfra analyst. he has a rating on twitter with an $85 price target and day by rating on google they $3200 price target. safe to say you could've had a by rating on any mega cap tech stock. they have all done really well.
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why do you think they continue to outperform even in the face of regulatory concerns as well as inflationary pressures? angelo: apple has been the big winner among the group, among the big tech names. what we have seen the last couple of days snapchat clearly came out last week and rang alarms in terms of what is going on within social media, specifically as it pertains to ad tracking and apple's ios upgrade. alphabet is not nearly as exposed as you would imagine relative to snapchat and the facebooks of the world. there are significant regulatory concerns as well as what i just highlighted on the ios side.
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we do expect growth to de-accelerate in the coming quarter. it depends on what kind of investor you are. if you are a true long-term investor, this continues to be a great place to be overall and that is big tech. matt: if we look year to date, google has been the big winner overall. i mean, if you take out tesla from any of these calculations, google has beaten out facebook, apple, netflix, microsoft and twitter. especially twitter. it is still off 13% year to date. why is it lagging? angelo: i think that is a great point. in our view, it should not be lagging. we continue to believe in the shares over the long term. we think this represents a fairly attractive entering point for investors despite the concerns in terms of ios ecosystems. our view is it has been
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performing unjustly so. matt: microsoft has done very well, up 40% year to date. google distorted the picture with a 60% gain this year but if you look back over the five-year view, microsoft is the leader of the non-tesla, big cap tech stocks. are they going to continue to outperform? this guy has got to be in the hall of fame. angelo: as far as microsoft is concerned you look over the last decade and it is clearly -- we have seen multiple expansion stories out of microsoft but we have also seen nice earnings growth coming out of the company. when we start thinking about tech in general and with the most attractive growth story
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here over the next 5, 10 years has to do with the enterprise side. that is the bread-and-butter of what microsoft is all about. [indiscernible] it probably is as strong. we have a strong buy recommendation on the shares. we like it a lot. we think investors should be buying of the shares. matt: are there any areas you think are overvalued? i think of one carmaker that has had an incredible order over the past couple of days, but i am still not sure if it should be worth more than $1 trillion. does it make sense to you everything in the big cap tech space? angelo: as far as tesla's concern, to your point, we do have concerns about the valuation of the company. clearly when you think about the
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growth story of tesla over the next decade you have whether or not they can continue that 40%, 50% topline growth rate. that is the story as far as the company is concerned. we do have concerns on other things but we are not going to tell investors to short it or not hold the shares to be honest. when we look at concerns within the market or within the tech side of things we definitely are more optimistic, i would say, on the software side then we are on the tech, hardware or supply chain side of things. clearly supply chains have been having difficulties the last few months. but typically the more semiconductor names start to underperform. [indiscernible] outside of a name like nvidia
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which could grow through the concerns we would probably start to lighten up on the chip industries. matt: apple has been the clear underperformer of the whole group. it is only gained about almost 13% year to date and they faced, i guess, the biggest head winds with regard to the supply chain. how much longer do you see those headwinds persisting? angelo: probably through the holiday selling season. our belief was we would kind of hit max in terms of supply chain issues in the second half of this year and that is what you are seeing. we would expect as some of the demand side of things starts to decelerate into early 2022 as consumer start to focus outside of technology purchases as we go through 2022, i think at that point we start to see some sort
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of flexibility or available capacity out there for a lot of companies, whether it be apple or other comply constrained areas. matt: let me finally get your take on inflation. there was an interesting discussion between cathie wood and elon musk on twitter. her argument is that, you know, with innovation and everything from ai to the human genome, that is a deflationary force. what do you think about inflation? angelo: to be honest, you're talking to a tech oriented guy. given where my roots are i would actually side with cathie wood. we believe tech is naturally deflationary and it historically has been. whether or not you are looking
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at iphone or looking at, let's say, the whole supply chain, tech in general has definitely been deflationary in nature. even with some of the transitory issues we highlighted we do think some of that does dissipate naturally as the cycle starts to cool. our view is over the next couple of quarters you do see those inflationary pressures start to ease. of course, there are more permanent aspects of the inflationary commentary, specifically as it relates to higher pay rates. but from a broader side of things, me being more tech oriented, i would actually side with cathie wood. matt: angelo, great to get time with you. thank you for joining us. angelo zino on the big tech week. let's get to that story that
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caught my eye this morning, the back-and-forth on twitter about inflation. the debate involved actually three notable names starting with jack dorsey of twitter who said last week hyperinflation is going to change everything. he said it is happening. that drew the attention of cathie wood as well as elon musk. musk wrote yesterday, i don't know about long-term, but short-term we are seeing strong inflationary pressure. wood answered partly by saying, new technologies are going to help bend the curve on inflation despite recent supply chain bottlenecks related to covid-19 and oil supply constraints. she pointed out she is doubling down on her deflationary outlook and it was a really interesting conversation to follow. maybe that is one of the big benefits of tesla -- twitter, sorry. tesla as well.
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coming up senator joe manchin of west virginia says taxes need to be fair and all options have to be kept on the table as congress looks to agree to a spending deal. you will hear from him next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ matt: this is bloomberg markets. i matt miller. after months of trying to get the info structure bill passed senator joe manchin remains skeptical on many parts of bided's economic agenda. earlier today he sat down with david rubenstein, cofounder of the carlyle group, at the economic club of washington, d.c. to discuss whether he supports the 15% minimum corporate tax. sen. manchin: we are going to do a deep dive and we should do a
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deep dive and that is why i have always said, when you do reconciliation in such a manner that is partisan, you don't go through regular order, doesn't go back to the committee, there is not a hearing, you don't have a chance for you all to come testify and tell us what is working, this could have this ramification, did you think about this. we don't have the professionals. basically you have a few staff trying to put things together and massage at the way they want it. i thought that wasn't a good way. do i think i know? i don't know. i went 25% on corporate net, 28% all in, got rid of carried interest. you have been hearing this wealth tax has got everybody excited to a certain extent. the only thing i said about taxation is it should be fair. david: the wealth tax, in your view, is something you support? sen. manchin: i haven't seen text on it. i am all for minimum 50% corporate -- 15% corporate. i think every individual, no
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matter how wealthy you may be, everyone should participate. nothing is going to affect you if you make less than $250,000. now it is $400,000. if you are not a millionaire, don't worry. that is not america. last time we had a balanced budget last time we had surplus it was under bill clinton and that was john casey putting that together in 1996, 1997. we would have been debt-free by 2006. matt: that was senator joe manchin of west virginia speaking with david rubenstein, carlyle group cofounder at the economic club of washington, d.c. i think pretty much everybody in the world who is following u.s. politics and spending plans right now does know how important joe manchin is. the swing vote so to speak. still ahead, can the fountain of youth be found in a pill?
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we talked to james peyer of cambrian biopharma which is working on treatment for age-related diseases. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ matt: this is bloomberg markets. i am matt miller. let's turn to silicon valley's search for the fountain of youth right in the heart of the big apple. cambrian biopharma closed a $100 million funding round to help develop therapeutics for age-related diseases. joining us is james peyer, ceo and founder of cambrian biopharma. he comes to us from our studios at 731. it is a fascinating topic, has been since before ponce de leon, but tell us what you are working on. james: thank you for having me. there has been a revolution
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in the last few years in understanding what the real causes are that drive the things that make us sick and ultimately die of aging and age-related diseases. and there are about 13 different topics we focus on within cambrian. each has the potential not just to treat diseases but to prevent them. and if we are ever going to create a cure for a disease like cancer or alzheimer's, it is going to happen by really getting to that disease before we get sick. that is the theme of the drugs we are producing an cambrian. matt: what is our best hope right now? james: aging is not caused just by one thing. i like to think of it almost as a systems collapse. there are so many things that go wrong with us little by little as we get older and as that happens one thing will eventually break and cause us to get sick first. but in order to make someone live healthier longer, for
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example, lifespans beyond 100, we are going to need to fix a lot of different things. bit by bit with a series of different drugs and that is why we have not just one but 14 different programs under our umbrella cambrian partnered with different researchers all around the world. and by combining those 14 different breakthroughs together we think we can make really good medicines for individual diseases in the short-term and in the long term create a solution to let people live not just a few years or a few months but decades longer, healthily, then they are right now. matt: so you have a phd in stem cell biology. it is not like you are a wall street guy who is dipping his toe into pharma. the other way around in a sense. how do you do a clinical trial on the kind of drugs in your pipeline? james: it is, i think, the key question you just asked.
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and this whole field, in order to reach its potential, really needs to have a way of getting to the market as fast as we can possibly do it. the way we do this at cambrian's you have an individual breakthrough, you know, a drug that can be a treatment for one of the causes of age-related diseases. instead of running a trial right away in, you know, healthy, older people which is hard to do, we find a disease that that drug can be a treatment for today to show it can be safe and effective at treating that disease. after you have that safe and effective drug then you can reposition that drug and say, hey, let's take this safe, effective thing and treat healthy, older people to prevent disease and approach that disease proactively instead of reactively. it is a two-step process. we call it the steppingstones to get to treating aging.
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matt: so silicon valley millionaires and billionaires famously have been chasing this holy grail for a long time as well. does that make it easier for you to get funding? james: it certainly does not hurt. as we approach this general topic of what we are going to do about an age-related disease killing 42 million people every single year, right now if you go to a doctor and ask, what are you going to do about -- what can i do to stay healthier longer? doctors can say two things, have a good diet and exercise regularly. but even if you are a vegan yogi , you have a 90% chance of dying before your 100th birthday. i think silicon valley is famous for recognizing where the world is going way before we get there and building a future. it is not an accident that we have some investors that were
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the first investors and key players in tesla and other companies ahead of their time. but this revolution in longevity is something that is happening globally. we have been able to work with groups across the u.s. and also in europe. we have 100 people working across four continents to bring these drugs into patients. matt: you know, i know you studied it in texas but when i think of the cutting edge of medical research i think of the east coast johns hopkins and, of course, harvard and yale. where is the most important work or the best work being done? james: we actually have partnerships with many of those institutions but there is something interesting that happens in academia. all of the greatest professors are not just hold up in harvard or stanford or hopkins. they are spread over institutions, great institutions, all across the u.s. and also over europe. the biggest challenge that we have seen from the intersection
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between breakthroughs on the research side and development of drugs and funding of the development of drugs is, do those research groups have access to capital? which is why we have been able to work with these early-stage scientists that have made fundamental breakthroughs and create a drug development program under the cambrian umbrella for those groups. . it has been a great way to bridge this gap that is sometimes called the biofarma valley of death, were so many innovations come to die. matt: james, it is a fascinating topic. hope we can get you back on. james peyer, cambrian biopharma chief executive and founder. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. democrat terry mcauliffe
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distanced himself from president biden in a bid formal -- for more votes in the virginia governor's race. as polls show extreme late tight race, the former virginia governor's counting on the power of the presidency to give him an edge in the november 2 vote. he's planning a campaign appearance with the president tonight, just weeks after he blamed mr. bidens saddened -- sagging approval ratings for his own slump in the polls. the united states will expand visa processing efforts to accommodate an expected spike in applications under a new policy that loosens restrictions on vaccinated travelers. the u.s. will open its borders to fully vaccinated people 2 -- recent delays throughout the pandemic have mounted as counsel -- as consulates closed, creating a backlog that could be made worse because of backlogs because of the new policy. iran says cyberattacks -- cyber
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attackers were the reason for a major delay at gas stations today. state run media in iran says the disruption may have been timed to coincide with the upcoming anniversary of widespread and violent protests at a rapid after the iranian government raised fuel prices in november of 2019. the united states and chinese governments have made some incremental progress in their economic and trade negotiations. treasury secretary janet yellen and the chinese vice premier held their second call in about four months. beijing described the conversation as pragmatic and constructive. china has repeatedly said the u.s. should lift tariffs on chinese tariffs imposed during the trump administration. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i'm mark crumpton. amanda: i'm amanda lange, welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: welcome our bloomberg markets and bnn bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following around the world. draftkings jumps in trading after a potential $22.4 billion merger unraveled. we will bring you what is moving on the back of those failed talks in our stock of the hour. and we will take a look at the global economic pictures as the second largest country faces defaults and china claims down on leverage. but we go from silicon valley to napa valley and speak with the
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ceo of silver oak winery about the state of his business amid later -- amid labor shortages. i'm looking forward to that. amanda: that will be interesting. a quick check on the averages and we see something of a mixed picture. back into positive territory. for the s&p 500, it tells the story a little bit because the subgroup is utilities today. we will get a read on inflation this week, but a lot of flight -- a lot of stories and big swings in that regard. facebook today, trading lower on the day but facebook is upping its capex and bank of america says that will benefit chip stocks, particularly nvidia, going for a big ride as a result. lockheed martin down sharply on the outlook it is facing slower
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sales in 2022. definitely seeing some big moves based on individual stories. one of those individual stories is our stock of the hour -- draftkings has decided a $22 billion bid was not worth the odds. analysts think the run and sports books is not over. kriti gupta has a look at this. >> really interesting to talk about the fact that this is the owner of party poker -- this is the company that used to own the hilton hotels brand outside the united states in the late 1990's and early 2000's. now a big target for a gambling company. they have actually rejected a bid, the 22.4 billion was quite the figure they were after.
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this is going to be crucial after the supreme court let sports betting expand outside of nevada. let's talk about draftkings in particular because this is a booming business. revenue expected to hit $3 billion. that's essentially one year of ad revenue for linkedin. sports betting is a growing business and this is why it is such an important target. but this is the latest in a year of where you start to see that. draftkings has been on quite the tear when it comes to acquisitions. they've had to acquisitions and this was going to be potentially the third one and that is where you can see draftkings trying to get bigger and bigger. i want to end here talking about the market reaction. . matt: can i jump in and commend
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you for saying acquisition. the term merger is so wrong. i find it hard to believe any kind of combination can be a merger. certainly it has to be pretending to be a combination of two equals. draftkings was going to buy them. this was not a merger at all. after that rent about how they gaming industry has reacted. kriti: indeed, acquisition it was but now you are seeing them walk away. this was a big deal for the casino industry. there is going to be rising sympathy with draftkings. who isn't doing so well is mgm because they have a joint venture with them at when they lost that potential deal, mgm is
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down on that. amanda: that is our stock of the hour. for what it's worth, the bloomberg businessweek analysis of 15 global cities and how they rank for women shows there are failings for all of them. i'm happy to say toronto was ranked first. the score was a 3.66 out of five, so clearly some ground to cover. your town, berlin, six. sow apollo come a total of 2.68. the narrow lead toronto shows is because of maternity and wealth. traffic, aging subway systems, things that make the quality of life deteriorate. it's interesting seeing the data trying to be gathered and compared. i don't know whether this will change anything but it is interesting to see what life is like for women in different
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cities. matt: i have been struck by the lack of gender equality in germany ever since i moved back here in 2016. spiegel did a big report on it and you would expect this modern, kind of socialist society to lead the way in gender equality, but germany really does not. that is not a surprise. this surprises the safety issue. i can't imagine many large cities being any safer than berlin. on the other hand, as a man, i'm completely ignorant to these kinds of safety issues because even in a dangerous city, i don't feel that threatened. it's an eye-opening story and fascinating perspective that a lot of men need to get their heads around better stop --
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around. amanda: all of these things are more complex than the surface would allow. i'm fascinated to be reminded that europe, which can seem so progressive can be less so in the corporate boardroom. it's interesting to hear you say that about germany. matt: hopefully that is changing, certainly a lot more focus has come to this issue if we can say post-pandemic. beijing forces the founder of ever grand to pay down companies. you must've cnet coming. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller amanda lange. china is selling the bill -- is telling the billionaire founder of evergrande to personally alleviate the debt crisis. they missed an initial september that line for a coupon payment. here to discuss this is our new economy editorial director, andy brown. i can't say this is surprising. evergrande has plunged chinese property developers into a crisis. this guy can't expect to be let off the hook, right? >> exactly. this is the final chapter in the rags to riches story. he grew up dirt poor and ended up as one of the richest real
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estate developers in the world. at his height was worth $42 billion in looks like it's going to be a rags to riches back to rags story. they are going to clean him out. matt: in terms of the situation right now, how does it look? the big concern was contagion and we started to see that. andrew: you are seeing contagion. you are seeing other real estate developers getting into trouble, but none are in deeper trouble than evergrande, which has debts of 300 alien. even if you clean out the founder of this company, it doesn't get you very far. no one knows quite what he is worth. bloomberg reporters think he's worth something around $8 billion, but he's in a dangerous, risky position right now. he's in the crosshairs of
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president xi jinping's campaign to build a more egalitarian society, what he calls common prosperity. just when that campaign has reached a critical phase, he's trying to figure out what to do about the biggest driver of inequality today, which is the real estate market. matt: he's not the only one. everybody in not only china but globally is asking the question what does this mean for my business, for our industry, for the economy, and you've got a conference coming up. i assume this is going to be the main topic on your agenda. andrew: we are bringing together 300 or so of the world's most influential business and government leaders to singapore. singapore using us to
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demonstrate they can reopen their economy safely. one of the major topics is going to be china and the outlook for the chinese economy. real estate is going to be part of that conversation because there's no question whatever decision they make to tackle the real estate conundrum in china, growth is going to suffer. if growth in china suffers, then commodity producers, including australia, brazil commend others are also going to take a hit. amanda: we do know there is a sense that xi jinping needs to take control and show he is doing so. in many cases, doing the right thing politically. it can be popular to do what's right. is that likely to happen with the reforms needed here? andrew: xi jinping has then
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awful dilemma. he also has to bring down the price of land. high land prices account for property prices. the problem is they are dependent on land sales for the revenues. how's he going to replace those lost revenues? one idea is a property tax. the problem is, if you make the tax to high, you tank the property market and destroy the wealth of the chinese middle class and that's where the wealth of china has been invested. if you do that, you end up with in norma's social unrest. so they are going to have to calibrate this very carefully. but the first act is going to be to take down the chairman. he is going to be a scapegoat for a lot of problems. even though he was merely part of the capitalist system which has given rise to this
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incredible equity within chinese society. amanda: it is fascinating. great to have you with us. check out the new economy daily from bloomberg economics. you can sign up at coming up, and wine is flying off the shelves. we are talking to david dunkin on how the pandemic has changed the wine we drink. that's next. ♪
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amanda: this is bloomberg markets. i'm amanda lange alongside matt miller. with the holidays fast approaching, demand for wine is skyrocketing stop it comes at a time the industry is bidding hit by supply chain bottlenecks in food price inflation and extreme
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weather, -- extreme weather causing a bit of damage. david dunkin is with us. let's get started with the trends we've seen. we know through the pandemic, stay-at-home turned out to mean drink at home. but what are you seeing as lasting trends at the higher end of the wine spectrum? david: one of the things that happened during the pandemic is people had additional spendable income because they weren't spending money on going on trips and hotels and there was a flight to quality, if you're going to open a bottle of wine at home, you are going to open something great and enjoy it with family and friends. matt: what's the labor crisis, shortage of workers, supply chain issues, what does that mean for wine producers right now? david: in the u.s. wine industry, we just finished
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harvest. we didn't see a lot of big labor problems and the industry is facing the same kind of labor problem the hotel industry, hospitality, finding people to work in tasting rooms and enjoy those moments with our customers , it has definitely become a bigger challenge. matt: shipping is my main concern. i'm going home to ohio for thanksgiving. am i going to be able to find silver oak and stores? david: we are really on top of that from a silver oaks standpoint. for the industry, for the country at large, supply chains are a huge issue. i was reading this morning there are 100,000 trucker jobs available. but we do our own fulfillment at the winery. our direct to consumer, getting wine into people's hands at home is something we are able to do successfully. amanda: one of the observable
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trends in the last couple of years, especially california wines, the high end of that market got really pricey in ways a lot of people hadn't seen before. will that continue? is that a new maturation for the region? david: california wines, these north american regions are really coming into their own. for so long, people are chasing the old world and thinking about france in particular. french wines are way more expensive at the high-end. california wines remain an excellent bargain and i think the industry in general has done so much work to improve quality, so i do believe you have a great value proposition and you are getting what you pay for for napa, sonoma california wines in general. amanda: i want to talk about some of the extreme weather --
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you've got fires going back to 2017 and recent heavy weather. how's that affecting the rapes and how will the different years be affected over the past four or five years? david: i came from california yesterday and we got as much rain over the weekend as we got in the entire rainy season of last year. it was pretty crazy. but we are super happy fire season is over. hopefully we will have a pretty normal pattern. that is what the long-term forecast says. we made it through a year without any fires that really affected napa and wine country. it affected our state in a big and meaningful way and having been through that personally, i feel for the people who lost their homes and lives. but i think we are getting on top of it. there's so much activity in the industry, particularly in napa valley. i'm the board of the napa valley
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vintners and there's a lot of work being done by people to mitigate fires, to prepare and think about it in a whole new way. matt: what's interesting to me about silver oak and you are talking about how you deal with your own logistics. i know that your dad founded the business so you would have the own -- i think you're the only winery with your own cooperage there. how did you realize that was the right way to run it even before we had things like the covid pandemic come along? david: for silver oak, we are all about what's in that bottle of wine and quality. controlling the grape supply chain, making sure we could produce wines that were excellent, i think the cooperage was the next thing, to produce barrels that would be of excellent quality for our style
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of wine. we were looking at making our own glass, but i don't think that's going to happen. amanda: great to have you with us at head of the holidays. thanks for that. that does it for us. matt miller, i know you are a fan. sounds like you might be partaking of some silver oak. matt: i'm thirsty. maybe in the upcoming hour even. amanda: it's evening in berlin. enjoy. stay with us. ♪
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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. house speaker nancy pelosi says
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them a kratz writer decision point and what will be left out of their economic agenda. speaking at a meeting today, the speaker said lawmakers are hoping to move forward with a sweeping social spending package and a vote on a separate infrastructure bill as soon as this week. president biden is hoping to have an agreement before he heads to europe. law enforcement officials in the united states and europe have arrested 150 people and seized tens of millions of dollars in an international drug trafficking investigation stemming from sales on the darknet. the justice department says the arrests are connected to a 10 month investigation between federal law enforcement officials in the u.s. and europe. investigators seized more than 31.6 million dollars in cash and virtual currency as well as 45 guns. risks related to covid-19 and the economic havoc it has wreaked across the world are keeping corporate execut


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