tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg October 26, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
hiking and tightening cycle. >> the market is repriced significantly. >> they have been quick to price out interest rate hikes the fed in the middle of next year. >> the fact of the terminal rate is not rising give them less room. >> we don't think it will be raising rates until 2023. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: all-time highs into tuesday. for audience worldwide, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. your equity market up another 19 on the s&p advancing four tents of 1%. we had a drawdown that did not last long. tom: i've been calling this the draw up. from the beginning of the pandemic, this is really important. have never done this in my career prayed him taking earnings comparisons pre-pandemic, basing off 20.
if you look at the draw up, the dow up 22% of the good news of early february of 2020. spx up. nasdaq up and the interest, forget about 2020 in the market seems to be doing that this morning. jonathan: the nasdaq included 1% away, let's talk about tesla. can we say congratulations elon musk? a $4.2 billion deal at 120 billion dollars to the market cap of tesla. we have a $100 trillion stock. tom: a different -- a $1 trillion stock. tom: it is long -- log convexity. it was accelerating yesterday over that $1 trillion statistic. jonathan: you've got to love elon musk. tesla is very much a production
ramp problem. lisa: elon musk of about to become almost twice as rich as the next richest person in the world. he might become the world's first $1 trillion man. people pointed to the fact tesla still has a junk rating. my question is what does it indicate that we are looking at companies that have gotten ahead of their skis in terms of evaluation trying to figure out what these companies are. jonathan: we know it ups is. the earnings come in. a reason to year end for ups. adjusted etf's. a nice bead for them. tom: out of atlanta you know they are rooting for the braves against the astros. they permeate the american economy. i see guidance there up what you
see this morning. jonathan: much more to come on the earnings front. equity futures up 19, advancing 4/10 of 1%. yields to 1.6185. tom: it is range bound. it's something we struggled with. you of the equity dance going on and there's some interesting percent -- yields for global wall street. kids looking back -- back to the advent of the euro. the euro has done nothing for a brief moment like is never done nothing before. >> that ecb decision. >> interesting to see what the ramifications are in the markets with the yield curve flattening. today i think it will be fascinating. we have two sides of the same coin. at 10:00 a.m. we have new home
sales. an hour before that we have how much housing prices have been going up. the expectation is 20% year-over-year although a deceleration in the pace of increases, how much does this dampen appetite for homes and also at 10:00 a.m. we get consumer confidence, how much is consumer confidence coming down, of the expectation for just a dampening. that dampening consumer confidence has not bled into in revenue. i know i'm watching this very closely. we all want to know when our kids can be inoculated. frankly the interesting thing is the pickup in terms of who is getting vaccinated goes up as far as a proportion of the overall population as people get older. how much of a pickup can you get even after we have a vaccine out there.
microsoft and twitter reporting. interesting to see the diverting shortage. when it comes to google or microsoft where shares have been on a tear. google shares, alphabet shares up 58%, how much is this a tech story and how much is it a cloud adoption story? jonathan: just call it google. it's ok. tom: what's the name of facebook? jonathan: we will keep calling it no matter what it is. facebook, let's not do facebook prayed microsoft. it's something year-to-date. tom: joe feldman publishes definitively, he is staying with cloud growth. did you know i will say this is amateur. the british secret service
decided to go amazon cloud. jonathan: i missed that one. when you begin the sentence with a little bit of amateur it doesn't bring a lot of credibility. tom: what i like about feldman's he's got even margins and ups, united postal service just comes out and they raise their operating margin to 13%. jonathan: tony joining us. tony, this cycle is moving so quickly. the center for the outlook. tony: we'll elect to about the yield curve and movement speaks to this idea of a fast-moving cycle. we are probably at midcycle meaning look at the unemployment rate, what is a late cycle
condition. that lower rate can be achieved for full employment next year. the federal reserve will be in the mid-threes by the end of next year. it's important to be on your toes, it's a -- it's important to be active with portfolio management to be thinking more about security selection and regional selection, one final note, it is flattened reasonably and that something that happens later in the cycle. the federal reserve is raising the short-term rate. tom: two cent spread this morning. where is two year yield to the matters to you, 0.44%. where is the two year yield a tip point or a critical point?
tony: relative to other yields it matters a lot. it will tell us about the two-year window and we know markets looking at shorter-term interest rate and forward interest rates is projecting the federal reserve increase its policy rate sometime next year. the markets pending in several interest rate hikes. this two extraordinary things about the spread, one is the fact it starts to flatten earlier in the cycle when we've seen since the 1980's. in the last three cycles, their spread between the two-year and the 10-year note was as wide as 300 basis points. markets were patient about the idea of federal reserve interest rate hikes. the thought they were out there in the distance horizon. long-term yields and stay high -- had stayed high.
the peak this time was half the level of the previous cycles. the second part of the extraordinary part of the yield curve spread is the 10 year yield is projected to be low. on bloomberg, the function shows forward interest rate and we see the market is saying there is a benign story to unfold over time that interest rates probably won't get above 2.5% this far out. lisa: to tie this all together, what is the message from the yield curve? is it that the economy cannot necessarily handle too much tightening from central banks or is it just that the margin will naturally be narrower because of this feeling on longer-term yields? tony: those are probably the conclusions most would draw from it now. perhaps forward interest rates are wrong.
perhaps the marketing consensus embedded in these rates is the 2010s will be repeated in the 20 20's. but the 2010s is probably the wrong analog for the 20 20's. there was a lot going on in the outlook. more inclusive, the three major transmissions we see. and simply doing the math, it's 4% the projects next year. in looking at five years. the whistle have a rate that's about 2.5%. and therefore rates will go higher. we may return to certain normal
conditions. jonathan: we are out of time. haven't even got time to plug your book. have to go. thank you. there is a developer in china you might've heard of. china is urging the founder to pay the debt with personal wealth. tom: i don't know what to make about it. jonathan: that's how you make of it. you don't want to go there. tom: i'm looking for an entry point. jonathan: futures up 19. up 4/10 of 1%. from new york, you will jump in right at the end. this is bloomberg.
>> with the first word news, i'm laura wright. the u.s. and chinese governments have made some incremental progress in their economic and trade negotiations. janet yellin and china's vice premier held their second call in around four months per beijing described the conversation as pragmatic, candid and constructive. china has said the u.s. should lift tariffs on chinese exports imposed during the trump administration. senate democrats have moved closer to an agreement on president biden's economic agenda. senator joe manchin expressed optimism that could be a deal this week. he's been pushing to shrink the size of the social spending package. some lawmakers raise doubts about some of the deals being discussed. hong kong will soon end most quarantine exemption for
overseas and mainland travelers. the city is under pressure from the chinese government to tighten up what's already one of the world's strictest coronavirus containment programs. hong kong's goal is to eventually reopen the border with mainland china. in the u.k., the chancellor of the exchequer will end the pay freeze on public sector jobs. he made the announcement tomorrow -- he will make the announcement tomorrow. it took effect for 2 million workers in april. the treasury cites what it calls a strong economic recovery as a reason to raise salaries. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪
a few more things to work out. >> do you think you will have a plan before wednesday? >> do you want a deal by the time you leave for cop? >> that is my hope. jonathan: a lot of hope in the past when he four hours. that was the president of the united states. this tuesday morning, all-time highs coming into tuesday. equity futures up 19. the recent rally up 4/10 of 1%. the nasdaq aggressively lower from september 7 and eating its way back to within 1% of a record itself. crude pulls back in tk. and about $.40. >> we are really going into the heart of this tech earnings stream today. i don't think we expect earnings from non-tech companies to be this poignant. we are not where we thought we
would be right now. >> the likes of ups doing nicely. within sectors, winners and losers. unilever raising prices passing them onto the consumer. kimberly-clark struggling with costs. it's a story of curved winners and losers. it hasn't been that broad story. tom: a brilliant tweet overnight beneath the market there's some interesting dynamics. need the politics of this nation for some interesting dynamics as well. the president can have a televised moment and say let's get it done. who is doing the let's getting it done this morning in the white marble of washington? >> if the leadership. we've been talking to lawmakers every day here in the washington bureau. i speak within many put -- in many cases sources to committees
that matter they don't know what's coming next. they are waiting for cues from nancy pelosi and chuck schumer and they are waiting for cues from this white house. all roads lead to the gentleman from west virginia. you've got the president saying by the grace of god and the goodwill of the neighbors. as these climate provisions slowly leak out of the plan, it's unclear what the president will be able to show for it. >> the chemistry of this is serious. did you notice how matthew got his show plug in in the second sentence. jonathan: we will see that again at the end. you don't have to do it yourself. we can do a nice carafe -- graphic. it seems to be down in washington the president is negotiating with one man, that's not news. is he negotiating something that will pass this house? that's what confuses me at the
moment? >> saying here. it's unclear. we are talking but the same 10% is been left over, proposed expansion of medicare and climate. we've been focusing on climate in advance of top 26. i heard tom mention methane. you've got some clean utility component out. joe manchin opposing a fee on methane emissions. so is joe biden going to go to europe and talk about incentives for ev's that the centerpiece of the progressive democrat approach to climate change. they were hoping to have a heck of a lot more. as we look the next several days it's possible you get a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill. that has incentives for ev's. they didn't have to knock their heads together for six months over this bill to get that. president biden could be worn during what he has to show for it other than credibility. maybe that's it. we got something done. while he showing off what got done for world leaders it will
resonate here. one week from today is an election day and is an awfully important one around here in washington, d.c. with his gubernatorial election next door in virginia. >> what's enough to get the physical infrastructure bill over the finish line? this seems to be the key issue. what counts as an outline for the human infrastructure plan enough to get finally something past that everybody agrees on in washington? >> i'm not sure anyone has the answer. how long should the paid family leave be? what's the duration of the child tax credit and will there be an expansion of medicare the joe manchin can accept and doesn't believe will leave the rest of medicare in solvent and a couple of years. those questions have been unanswered. we seem progressive democrats did in, the chair of the democratic progressive caucus in the house is already saying next week maybe we'll vote next week. how many weeks, do this.
of been talking months and it always seems like he gets right up to the edge and then we delay things further. tom: you and i were weaned on the realities of one tip o'neill. i would suggest that mr. o'neill never overreached. is this a democratic party massively overreaching? >> it will look like that until something is done. i would remind tom and everyone, a one $.2 trillion on infrastructure. let's say they get 1.75, just shy of $2 trillion in reconciliation. the democrats will have $3 trillion in new spending programs that never existed before and get it all done before the end of the year, that may sound like an overreach but it would be a huge victory for democrats just as we are planning for this whole thing fall apart again. it took obamacare nine months to get done.
this could last a little bit longer. jonathan: you can catch joe on bloomberg radio at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. can you tell which bits are scripted. thank you sir. we appreciate it. tom, the optimism of the last 24 hours, is it warranted in your mind? tom: the optimism in washington. i don't buy it for a minute. they will come up with some form of a decision and glass cow seems problem -- and glasgow seems problematic. on ge earnings coming out, i'm going through the powerpoint right now and again they are raising a marginal view but on flat revenue growth. this needs more study. jonathan: what they see now is better than what they saw previously. fair to say? tom: it's a work in progress. jonathan: what they see now is
better than what they saw previously. lisa: this has been the underlying story. labor market shortages, the idea the optimism still is a prevailing sentiment. jonathan: rocksolid resilient optimism. lisa: it's not rocksolid. jonathan: you can bring it down. you just can't. it's a struggle. i'm with you. lisa: it's an uncomfortable time. thank you. tom: lisa, you are driving me nuts. year-to-date, up 18 percent. spx up 22%. dow jones up 17%. it's just not rocksolid. lisa: you can mock it on the headline numbers. if you look under the cover there are winners and losers and there have been laggards and that's interesting. i still think it's interesting and important to point out. jonathan: it's been tough out there if you are not long on
>> all-time highs in -- into tuesday. on the nasdaq 100 we cap lowered from september 7 then we gapped higher. 1% away from taking out that. i ton of earnings through the week. microsoft, google as well. get the tesla and facebook. intraday yesterday, up 12.66 % on tesla. what a move. a $1 trillion company now. over $100 billion in market cap. as we talked about several times, we have a junk rated
credit with a $1 trillion market cap in the equity market. tom: think of the competitors that will come in. that's all the doom and gloom. everybody is on board. it was accelerated. jonathan: here's the story right now on the bond market. tends right now 1.6238. pushing 180. -- pushing 1.80. the curve was around 160 basis points. right now it's about 80 or 90 basis points. the back end of march this year. the curve is gone the other way. that lift of the front and through the ballet. talking about rate hikes now. that's the difference. tom: i'm just noticing for the first time, i usually ignore the real yield. negative one point 04, that's going the wrong way. jonathan: all about inflation.
usually ignore me too. back to you. tom: thank you. lisa, do you want to jump in? lisa: i think you've done a great job. tom: andrew joins us right now. senior ford folio manager at morgan stanley. i love this idea of lots the internals. what are internals to a guy like you? andrew: this summer we had this growth slowdown and people were very doomsday. but the 10-year bottom early artist has been going up. that's been followed by the more economically sensitive stock starting to outperform the defensive. utilities was one of the best and worst performing sectors. the market has been screaming
that the economy was not going to roll over for quite a while now and it feels as though people are waking up to it. so the call of a big correction i thought was completely misguided because the internals would say no, the economy was strengthening. it big correction occurs with a growth scare not a growth acceleration. tom: watching revenues. i'm looking at 3m moments ago. it has been a challenging exercise for the last decade, yet there i am seeing revenue growth of 9%. higher than nominal gdp. what is that signal to you? >> it's strong. i was on a call last night and someone said the markets only up because the fed.
the market is up. the -- but keep in mind the estimate revision by wall street has revised up the estimate -- earnings estimates by 21%. tom: are you taking notes? lisa: i appreciated. andrew: the bears are running out of time. i think it will be a tougher year. jonathan: what are we under appreciating going into year end the do we think will start to go the other way next year? lisa: the third year coming up -- andrew: it's always a tougher year. it was a flat year, 2002 was up 4%. the market starts to worry about the fed moving in the other direction. the third year is a tough year. you get a combination of discussion of the fed raising rates plus fiscal policy is moving in the wrong direction
also. in other words higher taxes with liquidity. i think it will be a made single-digit year. before that we could have quite a good move. >> you to set higher taxes. is it your outlook that we get higher taxes? andrew: correct. is some of that embedded in earnings estimates already. estimate have not gone up as much as this year's. analysts raise this year and next year by the magnitude. there's been a lag into next year. there's a risk it's not as bad as possible. at the end of the day it's lower liquidity, fiscal, monetarily it is not as good for equities. naturally last year, this year it's a great year and next year
will be tougher. lisa: do you just lean into risk and cyclicals? do you wait for signals that perhaps it's time to shift? andrew: jonathan talked about the yield curve. the two to 10 year is only 150 base points and you look back at every recession. the post yield curve inversion brings us to 300 over. in that environment where the yield curve continues, you want to own value stocks, they work. they have not repriced back to where they were. i think there is a big opportunity in those stocks. we are working great but it's not over yet. energy is different because you have something called opec and so forth controlling energy prices. i do think the value trade is not over. i have very strong opinions on other places in the world.
tom, you mentioned real yields. look at europe. inflation is up more. lisa: are you saying you are bearish on europe right now after a story that supported that? andrew: correct. real yields are going down. rates are going up but not as much is inflation. breakevens. so it tells me there's a higher chance of stagflation in europe than there is in the u.s.. i would rather own cyclical stocks, value stocks in the u.s.. this is been our position all year long. and in europe. go look at how this is done as a financial etf here versus the bank financial in europe. it's doubled the return. to me i would rather bet on cyclical recovery in the u.s. then on europe. >> the language changes but it's the same.
the vogue is gam a squeeze. it's a greek letter for an accelerated second derivative movement in this case up typically. andrew: i'm not smart enough to figure all of that out. [laughter] tom: should we join some form of tesla catharsis will be set us up for the big drop? >> there are stocks that are beloved stocks. i'm very wary to take a market in that picture. if a look at my portfolio stocks , almost every company in our portfolio so far has beaten and raised numbers. i think the earnings fundamental are validating, and i can point to specific stocks. it's a crazy market. and that's true. don't miss out, fundamentals are
good. tom: liz and saunders was good on that. tesla is not the market. jonathan: it's just the two of them. thank you sarah as always. great work. 3m, there's another stock to have a look at. just want to work through a little bit of this. that's with a scene previously for for your sales. now it's 9% to 10%. that comes in at the top end just a little bit. here's the headline. they see raw material and logistic headwind of $.80 to $.90 a share. just getting an idea of how much we headwind that is. jonathan: it is as well. eli lilly completely different
area. again, this is like gina martin adams territory. futures are up 17. jonathan: as you've said, what your phrase of the year, companies adapt. you kept saying it and companies continue to adapt. tom: what's so important here and i give our team a great credit, we should talk about earnings with companies because it actually matters. the media is so short-term in its view on equity performance and i'm not saying we are drawing it out to a three or five year vision, but it would be nice to begin the summer of next year. jonathan: separate the equity market from the business. we talked about the resilience of this market. we can get into that another time. let's talk of the resilience of corporate america. lisa: the idea they could pass along a lot of price hikes and consumers will keep buying.
margins have held in much better than expected even if you see these higher material costs. the issue i have is -- and one of the big question marks is if they pass along higher wages, at what point does this bleed into persistent transitory or whatever you want to call it. jonathan: when you use the word but or however, everything before just doesn't really work anymore. i think you know that anyway. equity futures up 17. advancing 4/10 of 1%. a big day for earnings. i think we get 30% of s&p 500 companies reporting earnings this week. this is bloomberg. >> with the first word news, i'm
laura wright. china has asked the founder of evergrande to use his wealth to help the debt crisis. bloomberg learned beijing's directive came after evergrande missed an initial deadline for payment paid the demand says china is reluctant to orchestrate a government rescue of the company. ubs has joined its wall street rivals with a third-quarter profit surge. the wealth management sword the most in three years. like a number of banks, ubs is looking to asia for profits. >> absolutely can be. we know the country very well and a very successful both in the onshore business and offshore. a very good combination of businesses and asset management business. and we plan to invest more. >> ubs is starting a digital
management welfare in the u.s.. president biden will probably be unable with its key campaign promises to roll back the 2017 tax cut. there is unyielding resistance. the president has acknowledged there aren't enough votes to raise 21% corporate tax rate paid ups -- ubs posted third-quarter profits. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm laura wright, this is bloomberg. ♪ g. ♪
and that's what the projections show. the question is how low they will go and that will depend on how money people get vaccinated. jonathan: good to catch up with the vice dean of johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. the earnings this morning, so far so good. equity market still positive up 4/10 of 1%. microsoft and google. yields unchanged. down 83.68. stronger euro, just euro-dollar positive 1/10 of 1%. tom: what you have to do to continue this on the nasdaq is you have to do the math. on this important day when the government decides should little kids be vaccinated.
i know you've got a sleepless moment. off second shot, the number of working with, of scientific notation. ok fine. does the public understand how small the likelihood is of a frightening myocarditis of the second dose? >> it's unclear. i think sometimes we talk with numbers like that, the general public, because of their head. it hurts some anecdote from somebody who had a case. to them that's 100%. sometimes it's very hard to teach people how to risk calculate because they are swayed by anecdotes. we have to show them how rare it is. tom: this has to do with social media. it doesn't do the math. jonathan: even when i hear from
health officials directly i'm still confused as to what i need to do. i was fully vaccinated in and around sometime in may. i'm trying to work out how protected i still am from this virus. do we have any idea? does it vary from person to person? to the only last six months? >> it does vary from person to person but you have to tap -- take a step back and say what you wanted to protect you from. from serious disease, hospitalization and death or do you want to protect you from every breakthrough infection even if it's mild and doesn't even require a doctor's visit? when it comes to the former, unless you are above the age of 65, immunocompromised, your vaccine is working really well for you. for breakthrough infections i don't think these first generation vaccines should be used to chase breakthrough infection and kicked them down the road.
we don't how durable the response is an we might do this in another six months. for those above the age of 65 and those with high-risk conditions and those who got the j&j vaccine, they should get an additional dose. lisa: the implication here is significant. you don't think it's worth trying to prevent breakthrough infections for those were vaccinated to do not have pre-existing health conditions. is that what you're saying even though those people can potentially transmit the virus in a social setting? this is not summing that shouldn't be attractive they are not to get hospitalized or die from it? >> it is unclear how well it prevents breakthrough infections. we have limited data that says yes for some time after the vaccination you may be less likely to get a breakthrough. we don't know how durable it is since other individuals said this is like akin to rolling a boulder up a hill only to have it roll back down. i don't think that's the best strategy. the viruses and going anywhere.
hopefully it's a breakthrough infection and mild for them. that's what we have to do their there may be vaccines down the line that induce more immunity in your nose which may be more beneficial. i don't think these vaccines will be good for chasing breakthroughs. we don't know how contagious these individuals are. you should isolate and not expose yourself to others. i don't think this is something that's driving cases across. they are not being driven by breakthrough infections pray they are being driven by on vaccinated individuals. lisa: you've come on repeatedly over the past few weeks and months and said it's time to transition to a new reality where covid is present and we have to live with it. i wonder how controversial this is, how much pushback you get from colleagues. how heated the conversations are whether it's china looking for zero covid policy or even here in the u.s. it still is trying
to adhere to pandemic policies. >> i said this was going to be the fifth season of coronavirus in february of 2020 and we had to start thinking about it then prayed now i think people are coming to the conclusion that really was something that wasn't even questionable based on the fact it's a respiratory virus that spreads efficiently that this will be and mx. they are -- there are people having a hard time adjusting to a new world where covid will always be there. there will be covid-19 cases 50 years from now. that's because people weren't told that ahead of time and public health went on this abstinence only approach. and did not teach could a risk calculate to adjust their lives will recalibrate. the fact covid will be a respiratory virus we deal with year in and year out. you have to learn how to make good choices. the best way to do that is to be
vaccinated so it's not a problem. jonathan: i'd like to finish share with you. do you think there's been a risk over the last year that a lot of public health officials now are conflating science with what they would like to see in social science. do you think that's the confusion? >> i definitely think people took their values and applied them to covid-19 policy, over masks, vaccines, all of that has to do with the way society views covid-19 and how they viewed it through the lens of whatever tribe they are in and that was how they viewed it. whether that was the tribe on the right or left. with the data shows, how can we do the same thing. what's the best way to do it. we live in an increasingly tribal society. then it becomes difficult for anyone trying to break those bubbles.
jonathan: we expect politicians to be politicians. was this a failure of groups like the cdc? >> when you look at what happened with covid-19. this was a failure at -- of government. i do think the cdc had a lot of failures. you can't really blame them because they were captive to politicians. the trump administration where we saw lots of political meddling, where the cdc director was bound and gagged and put into a trunk. the same thing is happening to a lesser degree during the biden administration were we are wondering did the cdc director overrule that group, did she herself believe the science was a certain way or did she try to make the promise to get boosters to everyone whole. i think the cdc has been damaged by this. jonathan: a conversation you and i and all the rest of us need to continue.
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♪ >> powell and the fed are increasingly open to the prospect of perhaps a quicker hiking and tightening cycle. >> the market has repriced the cycle significantly. >> the market has been very quick to price out interest rate hikes in the middle of next year. >> the fact that the terminal rate is not rising gives them less room. >> we don't think they will actually be raising rates until 2023. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this is not the earnings season the bears were hoping for. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up another 0.4%. the earnings so far, so good. tom: the vix under 15. there's a reaffirmation