tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg October 20, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT
♪ >> the idea that things are transitory is obviously wearing thin. >> investors will focus on earnings fundamentals, which will push stocks higher. >> the fed is saying from a monetary policy standpoint, this is just a matter of patience. >> markets are not comfortable with the idea that central banks are going to be dovish. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. in this hour, do you have the courage to be in the market?
biot occur -- beata kirr with us in moments. earnings not bad. jonathan: you know what the big mystery is kailey: how divorced -- mystery is? how divorced the conversations are we have a rose are -- we have every day are with the market. when people talk about the doom and gloom and margins, you've got an equity market just short of all-time highs. it is getting harder to reconcile the conversation we have daily on programs like this and where the market is. jonathan: andy pullback -- tom: and a pullback like today is crushing, negatives .07% -- -0.07%. jonathan: every time there is a pullback, we need to talk about the durability of the so-called fed put and how durable that fed put can be. have we finally broken out of this lower inflation regime? that's got to be top of mind for
bread much everyone worldwide. does the fed have the capacity to keep supporting and equity market if we break out of a low inflation regime that has dominated the economy for the last 10 years? tom: we heard it on deposits from the major banks. the wall of money out there is still there for the bid. lisa: which is creating a bit of a conundrum for economists. why isn't it being spent faster? a delete survey showing that the greatest number of individuals in the united states survey were not planning to buy holiday gifts this winter. the idea of the k-shaped recovery is still very much in the forefront, but not necessarily affecting the trajectory of the economy in a material way. tom: in washington on this hour, all of a sudden biden is center tendency. 3.5 trillion dollars down to $1.75 trillion. what happened? lisa: he has no other choice. how else is he going to get this through? he wanted to get something done.
if he gets nothing done, how does he going to the 2022 elections that are pivotal for who has the dominance in washington? tom: jon ferro and i can look at magnesium. magnesium to the moon, up 200 some percent off of the china quote. rotterdam showing much of the same thing. this is an underpinning of what commodities signal. jonathan: supply issues, near-term prices. spot price and copper, serious supply issues. stockpiles dwindling. what is the concept? backwardation. going to hear about that word for a few more weeks to come. tom: let's do a data check. do a data check. you lead with magnesium? jonathan: in the bond market, yields unchanged at 1.63%. until we don't talk on the show. we just go to breakfast and stare each other down for about 40 have minutes.
[laughter] down 011% on the s&p. no drama this morning. for me, it is a build up to november 3. it is not about tapering. it is about rate guidance. tom: what is so important, i am off of my magnesium pills today -- jonathan: in your sink as well -- your zinc as well. jonathan: very personal. tom: so let's do this. let's dive in now to the equity markets. dan ives will join us on tech. we are going to try to have him give us a $200 top tick on apple. we will not do that with beata kirr, bernstein private wealth cohead. what is the trajectory of earnings you see? beata: what we see is an earnings season that is likely to be more volatile than the last several. as we are coming off a
substantial rebound in earnings, whereas in prior quarters, earnings are up 45% year-over-year. so consensus view for 2022 has really moved to a 9% year-over-year view. that is still positive, and that is one of the fundamental underpinnings. but like you just said, this is going to be a story of figuring out supply and demand. demand still appears to be there. who's got pricing power is one of the fund mental differentiators. lisa: are you buying consumer staples, considering how much they have sold off in the fact that we have been able to see them pass along that pricing? beata: it is not about a sector. it is about fact picking. even though 30% of managers are beating the s&p year-to-date, we have had great success this year with that selection, so it is about the company. do they have the ability to pass
on price increases? some companies do and some companies don't, so you really have to differentiated by the individual companies. jonathan: talk to me about the support for next year in this equity market. what are the things you see right now they can persist into a new year? beata: what we still see his strong economic growth. obviously growth is fading from the incredible rate in this calendar year, but we are still looking for close to 4% gdp growth in the u.s. and over 4% gdp growth globally for 2022. so you've got that. we don't think the fed moves rates until 2023. the taper argument is out there and is well understood by the market, and it looks like we are still going to get some stimulus even though it is a measured pace. tom: you have 4% u.s. vision for how long? beata: that is for 2022.
like you said earlier, this really is murky, but there's a wider range around that. tom: ok, but how do you get to that optimism. we have most people way under you on that. what gives you that enthusiasm? -- [indiscernible] jonathan: can you restart the response to that? we just cut you off at the beginning. beata: no problem. i would say the bernstein bottom up view to get the economic perspective still that there is tremendous support and the overall output. what we are seeing is why you see manufacturing when you have services rebounding. the real issue has been in goods. services are coming back. you just said it earlier. consumers are coming back. families are traveling again. we do have to be careful on the lower end for consumers
especially, but what we see broadly is still support for that strong economic. lisa: one aspect of the debate on this show repeatedly has been what the investment thesis is around what is going on in washington, d.c. we have seen mostly dysfunction, but they are working to get something done. how do you price and the idea of more fiscal stimulus, but also the idea of higher corporate taxes. beata: we think the market is acknowledging the corporate tax rate will move up a couple of percentage points. you are looking at a mid-single digit earnings hit, so there is some vulnerability in that current consensus number. the market is in a wait-and-see mode to see what actually happens. if you look over the last six months, nothing close to what was originally proposed is going to happen. so while there is some downside pressure from a corporate tax rate likely to come, there is the offset of more stimulus
coming in to support the consumer. so i think market, it comes back to companies, pricing power and that supply and demand picture will be much more important for earnings for the market outcome. lisa: we have been talking about the pessimist about their, and markets have rallied despite all of that gloomy talk. what is the biggest concern among clients you speak to who have to figure out how to reposition? beata: it is not just the biggest concern among clients, but something we are watching as a potential risk for the market. it is what we have already brought up several times to is inflation transitory? our house view is that it is going to moderate from the extraordinary price increases we have seen over the summer. that is a likelihood of it being higher than it was pre-pandemic. so we are not talking about an environment such as 2% to 3%, in all likelihood compared to the much lower numbers we saw during the pandemic. jonathan: thank you, and our
apologies for that brief technical disruption. biot occur -- beata kirr. everybody speaking this week into chairman powell this friday. tom: these are my views, not the views of the fed. i have mixed feelings here. i think it is important for public officials to get out and speak at rotary clubs and big events and all that, but at the same time, do we overanalyze it? i really don't know. jonathan: i do wonder. not as much as they do in the united states. the regional fed presidents increasingly very busy talking. tom: but when tom asks -- lisa: but when tom asks are we overanalyzing, people are viewing it as noise. what are they actually going to say? increasingly, i here ignore everyone but for the big three at the top.
that has changed a little bit too to some of the political pressures. jonathan: that is the issue. who are the three of the year for this -- for the next several months. tom: with the data, if you get the bernstein 4% gdp, the vast majority of the people we are talking to our end modeling that in. jonathan: direction of travel matters in the model of inflation here. you say nominee people are pricing that in. that is consensus for next year when you look at the economic outlook. so most people look at that. tom: i've got to take some bloomberg terminal lessons. jonathan: yes, of course. ok. i love you. you know you know. some of my brand-new subscribers don't know. we will talk about it in the brakes. it is ok. i think the world of you.
tom: i took my magnesium and i just learned i need 420 milligrams a day because for older people, it helps in abusive call. at that why they gave it to me yesterday? jonathan: do you want to say something back to this? tom: cashew nuts. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. congressional democrats have made headway in breaking the stalemate over president biden's economic agenda by getting rid of or trimming parts of the multitrillion dollar tax and spending package. progress came after the president met with various lawmakers yesterday. expected targets for cuts include tuition free community college and a shortening of the expanded child tax care reddit stench of -- tax care credit
extension. able kino -- a volcano in southern japan erupted. the bundesbank president stepping down from his post at the end of the year. a statement from the central bank says he submitted his resignation to the german president for personal reasons. the 53-year-old has been germany's central bank chief for more than a decade and is considered one of the more hawkish members of the european governing council. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
performance and range at the same price will have to lose money on every car sold. 3000 is our base case, not our bull case. jonathan: always fantastic to hear from cathie wood, the ceo and cio of ark investment, sitting down for the milken conference. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. no drama on the s&p, -0.03%. the bond market basically unchanged, 1.1615 on euro-dollar , basically unchanged. on crude, $82.11. the focus now very much on the big tech players. i don't know if we can call tesla a big tech player, but we can call apple one. tom: widely anticipated by global want street -- global wall street. we bring in dan ives, managing director at wedbush.
reaffirm the accounting integrity that gets you to $1000 on tesla and ms. wood to $3000. dan: it comes down to can they do 1.3 to 1.4 million units next year. will they be profitable? i think $1000 is the least case. bull case, you get to $1300. tom: we got to reset on apple. the new chip is extraordinary. all you need to know is that technological marvels. do you adjust your bull case to get out to a $3 trillion apple at 181 dollars a share, or $4 trillion at $241 a share? state the bull case. dan: the bull case now to try to
$25 -- now 220 have dollars. -- now $225. i think the story now is the innovation you're seeing on the chips. but right now, demand is outstripping supply by about 10,000 to 15,000 iphones per day. put that together, this is something that i believe right now we are running into, about 5% shortages in iphones coming into the holidays. jonathan: is it the high-margin goods that can't get the chips? is it broad-based? what is your read on that? dan: we call about five to 10 million shortage owing into the holidays, but the one thing is that asp is continuing. china is going to be front and center going into next week. i think you put this all
together, we think this is a $3 trillion market cap into early next year, as well as the services that continue to be the accelerant in that cupertino growth story. now you've got two new products from a hardware perspective. i continue to think this is just a massive growth renaissance. jonathan: hard to game this out, but just for this quarter, given the supply issues, can you envision a story where we miss on the top line but beat on the bottom line for everything you have described? dan: i see it a beat on september across the board, mixed guidance for december just on that unit shortage, but ultimately, 20 do numbers come up. looking through -- 2022 numbers come up. looking through the growth story, that is why haters will continue to hate on apple, but in my opinion, this stock continues to move higher.
right now they have a supply issue, not a demand issue. lisa: how would you like to see them use their money? dan: outside of buying a country, which is an option for them -- [laughter] i think right now, it will continue to be about the buybacks. the only acquisitions i have seen them do, and it is more and more strategic content acquisitions as it goes on apple tv. but this is all the drumroll to the next initiative, the ar/vr apple glass next year and the apple car in 2024. i think $3 trillion next year, and then looking at a $4 trillion market cap as this plays out. lisa: you have said the accelerant is the services component. apple is still very much a consumer product company. we see pressures with was back
to the app store. what services do you see relate driving the charge as we continue to look for the product side of apple to innovate? dan: it is a great question. it is all part of the rating story. months ago, services were signing 300 billion dollars. with inc. it is worth 1.4 trillion dollars to 1.5 trillion dollars. it is all about monetization on cloud come on the app store. just go back to some of the headwinds. the epic trial and regulatory. the street is ewing that is background noise. that is why this stock continues to power through that in what is a $70 billion annual revenue stream. jonathan: i missed this one. when did you start covering gm? dan: we started covering gm over the last six months because my view is that this is going to be an ev transformation story as it gets re-rated. i think what you are seeing in
gm is the renaissance in detroit. start to get more of a raise from that. tom: are they going to make a car that america wants, not some fancy thing like tesla, but something you can get the family and? -- the family in? dan: two weeks ago i test drove a bunch of the models. i think it is going to be a game change what they are coming out with. i think the team has done a phenomenal job with what they are doing on the screen tidal wave. they will be a big participant. jonathan: just quickly come up for people who aren't familiar with the stocks you cover, apple , microsoft, docusign, are you expecting them to get a tech like multiple overtime? dan: my view is gm and ford start to get rerate on disruptive technology. you start to do some math, you convert about 10% of gm space by 2025, i think this is a three digit stock.
i think that is the key as it starts to get more of a re-rating. a $5 trillion green tidal wave. many others are going to benefit by what you are seeing. the biggest transformation to the auto industry since the 1950's. jonathan: amazing. fantastic to catch up, sir. dan ives of wedbush on gm comedy price target $85. right now, 50 $6.85. a bee that is the trend still to come, that some of those legacy names in detroit start to fall on the coverage like dan ives. tom: no surprise about this, that the technology is grossly underrated. matt luzetti could probably talk about this. it is real simple. do we actually understand the technology of the next 10 or 20 years? jonathan: i started this segment by saying is tesla a tech firm. we have had that conversation many times, haven't we?
>> live from new york city, on radio and tv, this is berg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan euro and lisa abramowicz, and the s&p is really making a statement around these levels for the last year and year-and-a-half areas we are going nowhere this morning. it is a bomb market. 160 2.67. jonathan: is this a big deal? tom: i think it is. exit london. they are taking the traders to milan. was clarify the exit. i think you're right when out the tray. it is most luncheon traders are headed towards milan. early planning is to move most
london traders to milan. jonathan: we have the details. of a chat with them and reach out to them in with them. tom: were going to set up with matthew was steady. deutsche bank is doing good. good luck with that. but it is important to talk about the changes in the dynamics of the fed policy and economic growth. you have a comment. jonathan: here's a quote. with the committee sensitive to higher-than-expected inflation data from earlier this year, we are expecting in assistance to lift off in december of 2022. walk me through. what is change that says we're going through? >> what a change from our perspective.
the middle of 2023, essentially. it is all about inflation from my perspective rate we have seen the latest data, car price data, up 5.4% in december. another 8.3% in the first half of october. we have seen oil prices and energy prices moving higher. that is important inflation expectations. we know consumer measures are sensitive to that. market measures are sensitive to that. we have seen supply chain disruptions for longer. on top of that, we have more persistent items. the atlanta fed measure, inflation been the highest it has been since 2001, and we have come to the realization that clayton is longer. it is likely to rise more than expected. that is going to bring forward liftoff into next year. jonathan: i want to be clear about this. you are questioning the forecast and the reaction function as well. are you questioning the forecast
or the reaction function, excuse me? >> a little bit of both. that's too low. we expected it to be a bit higher, and as you look for the past six months, you have a steady hawkish movement starting in foc to speech years from the vice chair which tom what tapering at the end of next year, and pushing to 50-50 with the rate hike next year. we will have upside surprises in the upcoming months and the s&p will show a rate hike next year. tom: what will the growth hike be of the american economy? >> we are grow with -- bullish on growth. there is discussion on stagflation and the economy
lifting inflation hurting growth. that is true for q3. we are down close to 2% growth in q3 and very clearly that was a supply shock kevin dent to the economy. we have pushed us on the growth in the next year. we'll push growth to about 6.3 percent. that should be sufficient to get the consumer a to continue to all, closer to 4% by the end of next year. there are downsides, and we have to get past the supply chain disruptions and the covid disruption and fears, but we remain ready bullish on the outlook. tom: how do you link that into markets when you talk to deutsche bank and strategists. how do you link it into nominal gdp and the revenue components? >> most interesting dynamic we have seen from my market spect of has been bringing forth liftoff. just over the past week, we have
seen a move forward into june. a route 50-50 rate hike in june. as not raise fed expectations, so we are looking at the five year and the terminal rates. it is only about 1.75% at this point, so it is pretty bearish in terms of how far the fed will be able to get, and that is all about the growth outlook. expectations that it would not be as strong as expected. we expect growth to be there. rate hikes will not be able to attend that sufficiently. we will raise rates more with what the market has priced in, particularly as we get to 2024 where there is big divergence between fears on the market. lisa: bankers and federal comments alike are asking how you parse out supply-side versus demand-side economics when it comes to inflation? >> it is hard. there was a great piece on this recently.
it was in the san francisco fed around the covid crisis. it really identified supply demand factors. what he came to a supply-side factors are critical for a number of factors, super durable, and particular. demand-side forces are really important for the end as you would expect as well. restaurants, it etc.. what we have seen is a week is from -- a weakness from the consumer's perspective. on the inflation side, it was all about the spring and summer, and you can start to see those forces dissipate. i really important trend is the pickup and supply and inflation process. we will see that over the next several months. inflation pressures on the supply-side story are persistent a longer than expected. lisa: if the fed raises rates because of the supply-side shock, it does not make as much
sense. but when you take a look at the demand-side and you take a look at pricing with respect to particularly rent, which you mentioned, that might have more of an impact. good raising rates be helpful in dampening inflation simply with rent in housing prices? >> you are right. it is a typical conundrum from a monetary policy. you can't help the chip shortage, you cannot help the digestive court, but you could -- congested port,. demand is pretty robust, and you can constraints apply. there is a demand-side to this. importantly, what you can do is maintain credibility for defending the 2% target. maintain credibility for wanting to get through inflation expectations too high. from their perspective, you can help rein in demand by raising
rates. that is an important part of it. but another part of it is defending your 2% target as inflation runs high and tried them back inflation expectations and make sure they are anchored run 2%. jonathan: how difficult is it to have a forecast of what the fed will do if you have no idea what the fed will look like next year? >> it is incredibly difficult. you really have to look at the labor art look and growth outlook, and on top of that, you don't know it today is going to look like over the next year. what we do know is the competition will likely look more dovish. we will have a more dovish forecast and it will be replaced with something more dovish. more importantly, the voting members will look a lot more hawkish. from original fed, voting block, in 2022, it will be a big lock of voters that will expect to raise rates next year. even if you get a more dovish
share, like governor brainard, it will be difficult to push back as long as inflation is above its current forecast. tom: full the china dynamic into it. in your calculations 12 months for, it is undoable is in it must mark >> sure. china and china growth, the impulse from that has been a really important driver for growth in mix over the past decade, and that is likely to be softened owing forward it offsetting that is the story at the moment primarily about service in the united states and it is a domestic oriented story. it is about rebuilding inventory and production. there is demand there. there is sufficient to there over the next year, so a lot of it is clearing up supply chains and getting services back in the united states economy. it is more domestically oriented compared what we are used to. jonathan: fantastic as always.
deutsche bank looking for a rate hike in december 22. in many ways, it is a guessing game, but it is about the process and understanding the process. the teams go through this to come up with, and a lot of homework goes into it. you can make euro decisions. what is going to happen? tom: we have these narratives of fear, and i don't mean this in terms of loans, but the uncertainty out there -- these conversations have been superb. i know we have to go off to something else, but we have to catch up with tv. i was reading tom for sally last night on inflation expectations, and he is a way of making things to the point sharp. here's the quote. inflation expectations are incredibly elevated, and that is a factor eroding consumer desire to spend in earnest.
he goes on to say, that is why inflation expectations matter. the matter for some people. lisa: they matter, and it may run hotter or it may be a natural dampening of the inflation because people are going to perhaps adjust how they behave. this is been a huge debate. i wonder if the demand-side versus supply-side inflation, and people try to parse that out. people are dealing with the fiscal runoff. jonathan: can you bring in someone more interested to work with you tomorrow? we have an auction. lisa: i'll bring you a waffle. there is a 20 year bond option. 1:00 p.m.. tom: bring the offspring in and we can do a kierkegaard and behind you. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg.
>> with first word news. goldman sachs chairman and ceo, weighing in on succession of the federal reserve. >> who offered the job? it would have to be apparent to the end of life, and typical of the platform. something like that. to make that kind of contribution, and be at that fulcrum of a very large lever, i joined it. >> a bipartisan push to make the united states more competitive with china and a message to production risks falling by the race site. -- wayside. the senate passed legislation including funding to strengthen the semiconductor industry, parking rare cooperation between progressive and democratic infighting. it could worsen the chip shortage.
facebook is planning to reap brand -- rebrand. the original facebook app brand may remain unchanged and could be positioned under a parent company with instagram and whatsapp and its portfolio. similar to google, with alphabet. it is expected to discuss the change at company conference next week. political news, 20 hours a day and on bloombergquint take powered by more than 2700 journals and analysts and more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg.
jonathan darrow. -- pharaoh. we are the chief executive officer of arc investment here with us. let's have a listen. >> there are the haves and have-nots in china, like there are around the world. china's taking it more seriously because there is more social unrest. what i don't understand is they are going after real estate which is 75% of the consumer savings and china. individual savings. of the prices are going down which they have been, i think that could really hurt consumer confidence and i think it already is. last weekend, that we can before, government, the national government went after the regulators, regulators who had focused on the financial industry as well as the
financial institutions, and i am sink they are playing with fire. talk about a cyclical risk. think about that if we lose china. at the margin, china has been responsible for a tremendous amount cyclical growth. >> tell me about bitcoin and what you see. it has been so debated. we are seeing more legitimization and regulation in the united states around the world before. today was a big day. one is the long-term way when it comes to something like cryptocurrency. >> bitcoin specifically gets involved when it is a six billion dollar market cap and this is in my life and arches life. it was a $6 billion cap and now it is over one trillion. we were asking the question -- this was 2015, could it going serve the three roles of money? we came to the conclusion that it was possible.
we collaborated and tour our original paper up and as we were going through it, he said, this is the first -- this is the rules-based monetary system i have been waiting for since we left the gold exchange standard in 1971. i said, well. how could this be? he said, how big is the monetary base, and back then, it was explained dollars. back then -- back then it was a $6 billion cap. tom: carol massar, you could hear the conference in los angeles. we need to talk about los angeles county. lisa will talk to us about a must read essay of optimism on the strength of southern california. mr. winkler has provided real leadership out of california. it is going to fall off into the pacific ocean. we are going to get into that into a moment.
it is time for up victory lap. -- a victory lap. you did not say buyers sell, but you said here are the observable facts about tesla. it is 144% per year. what is the view forward for tesla look like for you and your research team? >> it is great to be with you. i would say the person who is cathie wood. -- most prescient is cathie wood. tom: she's opinion out and everyone hates her. why? >> she is data-driven in one of things she comes back to is just on which knowledge tesla has about people who own its cars and drive its cars. that is a huge advantage compared to all of the competitors. you can see that in the sales of
sessions -- tesla's in a time when you would've thought in the united states that tesla would be under pressure. is exactly the opposite. the outlook is far she is concern is that it is as bright as it ever has been. lisa: you challenge conventional wisedome -- wisdom at a time when we need to feed into the narrative that southern california has lost everyone and people are fleeing. it is an economic wasteland. tom: is falling into the pacific ocean. lisa: what you wrote contradicts that. why do you see such optimism? what people forget is that california is the most diverse state in -- and the united -- largest state. as the fifth largest economy if it were country in the world.
one of the strengths of california is that it is the supreme gateway to the u.s. treasury. if you took the long beach and let courts together, they are overwhelmingly responsible for just about everything that we take anywhere in the world. particularly in asia where we get most of our stuff. that in turn has created an enormous manufacturing base in california people forget that l.a. is the largest manufacturing center in the united states among all of our cities. that has been for consequence in part because so much of the infrastructure that is required to process goods and services that come from elsewhere go through l.a.. tom: i was out there with my family a while back, and i was stunned by the diversity.
forget about the modern diversity. they are doing diversity a decade ahead of america. >> something that mayor garcetti pointed out was that if you look at the los angeles airport, for example, which is one of the you that has, at least before covid, daily nonstops to six continents. just one big airliner coming in twice a day from outside the united states. that is worth a fortune 500 company. people forget that. that speaks to the diversity but it also speaks to the fact that los angeles has a lot of very small countries doing very well. tom: dodgers over brace? you want to continue with l.a. tone? >> i always go with the dodgers. tom: founder bloomberg news. a very important essay on twitter in a bit.
he really speaks to the vibrancy of the entire region. lisa: the winners and losers in the supply chain disruption are beneficiaries of being such a note of an economic importance in the niceties. it is a major part. talking about the winners and losers of this i change disruptions, talking about nestle being able to pass along price increases. procter & gamble, the same. the question is how much margin and what pricing can be, given what these companies and consumer product companies have latched high. this is the most fascinating aspect of earnings, going forward. tom: it is the most convoluted earnings season i've ever seen. the idea of what we are going to see. someone told me years ago that we should show a not tell, so we will try to show earnings and show the makeup of revenue here. we will probably be in trouble. lisa: there is a lot to show for
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countdown to the open starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of trading, this is bloomberg, the open, with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york we begin with the biggest issue. within striking distance of the all-time high. >> earnings growth has been off the charts. unreasonably involved. >> there are reasonable concerns about margins. >> we are talking about inflation. >> given supply chain issues. >> markets are pretty resilient. >> we haven't seen a huge impact on the supply chain disruption. >> concerns right now are earnings on the supply side. >> it is yet to squeeze margins. >> we are overpowered. >> earnings have been stellar.