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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  October 19, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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seeks a deal on his economic agenda before the end of the month. senator joe manchin, whose vote is pivotal, said yesterday that there is little chance that congress can complete work on the agenda by the end of the month deadline set by the parties' leaders. boris johnson says global talks -- that he is hosting global talks at the end of the month and that they will be extremely tough. in an interview, he made a last-ditch call for concrete steps to protect the planet. he says nations attending the cop 26 summit must harden their promises to slash emissions. >> we need to keep 1.5 alive. we need to restrict the growth in temperatures to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.
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we think we could do it, but we will need to see some real action from the participants in glasgow. mark: prime minister johnson is hoping to use the summit in glasgow to showcase the u.k.'s leadership on climate change as he carves out a new post-brexit role for the country. russia is signaling it will not go out of its way to offer european consumers extra gas to ease the current energy crisis unless they get regulatory approval to start shipments through the nord stream 2 pipeline. on monday come operators -- on monday, the operators said the line is ready to begin operation, although it cannot ship it into regulatory approval is granted. more than 10,000 children in yemen have been killed or injured and violence linked to war in the impoverished country. those are statistics from united
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nations spokesman who called it "a shameful milestone." officials admit the number might be even higher because many child deaths and injuries go unreported. the yuan has long considered yemen -- the u.n. has long considered yemen home to the world's worst humanitarian crisis. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i mark crumpton -- i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, 7:00 p.m. in berlin, i'm matt miller. welcome to "bloomberg markets." here are the top stories. we'll bring you the market latest and check on crypto as
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digital assets rise following the launch of the first u.s. bitcoin futures etf. netflix earnings out after the bell, we will preview what to expect with the success of "good game," and whether it has positively impacted growth. and later this hour, the international atomic association's head will join the program to discuss the situation in iran, as he says nuclear surveillance in the country is no longer intact. a look at the markets, another gain in the s&p 500, now back about 4500. 4517 with a gain of 30 points. the u.s. 10 year yield is up again today, looking at 163 right now in a month ago we were looking at a 120 handle. crude is rising.
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$83 62 four cents per. a barrel -- $83.62 per barrel. the most interesting thing to me today is the bitcoin futures etf has gotten so much demand, more than 13 million shares changed hands in early trading. how important is this to the crypto world? >> very important. talking to people in the etf industry and crypto industry, they are quick to tell you that you futures back fund is not ideal, that they would like to see a physically backed fund. there were questions on what the exception of this would be -- acception of this would be, but it has been booming. we know that roughly 480 million worth of shares have traded, easily one of the busiest etf launches ever. so, looking at what we are seeing so far, just a few hours
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into trading, people are really clamoring to get a hold of this. matt: you know, it looks like people are clamoring to let go of treasuries as welcome at least looking at the terminal -- as well. at least one month ago, we were at 120. we were below 120 in july. and now we are at 163, so why are people willing to let go of treasuries, and the curve is flattening as well? 530 is the lowest we have seen it since april of 2020. katie: if we look at 10 year yields right now, they are at their highest since june. it seems like people are eager to offload their treasuries. this dynamic is interesting, perhaps investors are rethinking their views on the federal reserve sort of letting go of those five-year bonds they put forward with their rate hike expectations.
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we have seen incredible flattening, even though bonds are selling off across the board. i'm interesting in the demand dynamics, because if you could buy the past few weeks of au ctions, we have seen showstoppers, even with the 10 and 30 year options. some of those were at a record. even though you have the big demand in the primary market, yields continue and continue to rise. matt: stocks also continue to rise. i noticed the s&p 500 is now more than 20% year to date, using the hpc screen. i can go back and look at the yearly gains for the s&p 500 for any index, or equity. and i see four other years up over 20%. 26% in 2003. 29% in 2013. 28% in 2019.
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i guess there could be room for the market to continue to run. but what are you hearing from investors? katie: it looks like it. if you look at tech stocks, even though we talked about the selloff in the nasdaq 100, it is still up 7/10 of 1%. it's incredible to see the rally resume. the s&p 500 within 1% of its record high. even though there is risk in the outlook, if you thing about the fed expectations. the fact we are entering earnings season when we are expecting to hear about supply chain issues. it's a murky outlook, but there is optimism in the market that says, ok, the outlook is uncertain but companies have gone through a lot in the past year and a half. if it is supply chain issues we are worried about, we have been dealing with them for a while. we know that the banks have done well. but we have more earnings coming up, so it will be interesting to see how things shake out.
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matt: katie greifeld talking to us about crypto, rates and stocks. covering the gamut. the pandemic impact on investing cycles, we will hear from legendary investor, oaktree capital cochairman, howard marks from the mocon institute -- milken institute global conference, next. this is bloomberg.
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matt: this is "bloomberg markets." oaktree co-founder howard marks
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spoke with romaine bostick on day two of the milken institute global conference on how the pandemic has disrupted investing cycles. howard: in the usual circumstance, first of all, the cycle we have gone through in the last 18 months of the pandemic was not really a normal cycle. normal cycles, in my opinion, are the result of people becoming too optimistic and overshooting intrinsic value, fair value. and a correction that carries through to underpriced. and and then people get too pessimistic, and then you have a correction that overshoot and leads to excessive. excess and correction is not normal -- is the normal source of a cycle, but this cycle had nothing to do with the economy.
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this was like a meteor hitting the earth, an exogenous event, the pandemic, and than the government policies undertaken to correct it. so, our -- i saw an epidemiologist at the beginning of the pandemic, and he said we have three things, facts, analogies to prior experience, and supposition. in the case of the pandemic there are no facts, no prior experiences, and we have only supposition. that is where we have been. and that has made life tough. romaine: so how do you determine value? howard: you try to figure out what the cash flows will become eu discount that back at a fair discount rate, you apply for uncertainty, etc. that is what you normally do. what you normally do.
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but first of all, we had the lowest interest rates in history, which if interest or if something grows faster than the discount rate, in theory it is worth infinity so it is hard to operate in a world where things are worth infinity. and by the way, there are people willing to pay infinity for them. it makes it hard on a value investor. and then of course, since it is not a normally occurring economic cycle, it's harder to get your hands on it. normally, when we are at the beginning of an economic up cycle, and we are only a year in, you are usually pretty low in terms of the market. now we have a market that is high. and the economy is getting going in the first year of the recovery, getting going. but you could say the bad news is the economy has not done much and stocks are highly valued
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already, or you could say the good news is the stocks are highly valued by economic recovery lies ahead. so, investing is on the one hand and on the other hand. romaine: valuations have caused people to question the currency in the capital markets, but also to seek out riskier alternatives, something harder to pin value on, cryptocurrency for example. something you said yourself was basically worthless. you do not still feel that way? howard: i did put out a memo in which i said i thought my reaction to bitcoin in 2017, which was the year it exploded from 1000 to 20,000, that my reaction was a knee-jerk, skeptical reaction to something new because of its newness. my son and i lived together
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during the pandemic and he gave me a lecture every day on the fact that i had opined about bitcoin without knowing what i was talking about, which is certainly true. but, um, you know -- we have the lowest prospect of returns in history. my typical client, a penchant fund or endowment, for example, needs a 7% return a year to make the math work. and most people have accepted that you cannot make 7% today safely and dependably, and certainly not from stocks and bonds, developed world stocks and bonds. so that means you have to push out the risk curve and go for the review -- for the new things and all things. you have to go -- odd things. you have to go into private
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equity. or you have to invest in assets which are liquid in nature. so -- romaine: what about real estate? howard: that is another example. now, investing is always a place where the things that everybody like and feels good about are highly priced relative to the things that people have trouble with. so, everybody says, oh, logistics. and data centers -- great! i do not think that you can buy them cheap. it's counterintuitive that everybody could agree that an asset is great but it is a bargain. on the other hand, everybody says brick and mortar retail, i do not know about that. office buildings in coastal cities, i do not know about that. if people are skeptical, that
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creates the possibility that these things can be achieved, but you need subject matter expertise. matt: great conversation there with howard marks, oaktree's co-founder. always great to hear what howard has to say. you can follow the events at the milken institute global conference on your bloomberg terminal, just type is a look at some of the biggest business stories right now. johnson & johnson has raised its profit forecast. a strong performance in their main division has helped drive quarterly results. johnson & johnson benefit from gains in its pharma and consumer divisions. health care company results have been improving across the board this year as patients return to hospitals and clinics. barclays returning to the office
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is well underway, in new york at least. the ceo tells us that the majority of u.s. employees are back in the office. staff are required to be vaccinated to come back to the offices. in new york, more than 90% are. while flexible working is here to stay, the ceo believes there's momentum around people returning to the office. a unit of credit suisse, by the way, is pleading guilty to its role in a fundraising scandal that looted money from mozambique and tipped that country into an economic crisis. the bank will enter into an agreement and have a subsidiary pleading guilty for conspiracy to commit wire fraud. the agreement is the latest action in a multiyear international legal saga that came out of 2 billion dollars of deals from 2013-2014 to state owned companies that were supposed to fund a new coastal
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patrol force in mozambique, one of the world's poorest countries. and that is your bloomberg business flash update. still ahead, the south korean series "squid game" is expected to drive their third-quarter results. we will speak with an analyst who covers netflix. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm matt miller. netflix reports after the bell, investors will be paying attention to subscriber growth, as usual. but it is something different this quarter because of the success of "squid game." has boosted their market value since its debut. joining us is tuna amobi,
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consumer analyst at cfra. he has a guy reading on -- buy rating on netflix. it is understandable that the success of this one program has been amazing. i think that they expected to generate about $900 million and it only cost about $20 million to produce. tuna: i think there is a lot of excitement in the air. you alluded to "squid games." no question changes the narrative for netflix coming out of the pandemic. i think that they were desperate to get something going after this very difficult first half, which is why we think a $3.5 million guidance -- there's definitely upside to that. a big part of it will come from the asian-pacific, but more importantly, i think that the
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show has put that looks and a good position as they continue to evolve their videogame strategy with the acquisition of night school. so, i do not know about the $900 million value that you alluded to, but i think we can agree that this is going to be a tremendously great franchise for netflix. matt: they will make another season, it has already gotten the green light. any other surprise hits like this, you think, in the pipeline? i guess they would not be surprises if you knew about them, but my question is do they have other foreign language properties that you think are going to be attractive, after people, you know, were willing to go the subtitle route and tune into "squid game." tuna: we are trying to predict
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breakout hits. but what i think this does is really provide a major indication for netflix's original production. i think now -- they have titles that are slightly below the radar that can all of a sudden breakout nd become global -- and become global hits. one mantra of netflix is to key in on content, locally, that has global appeal. it travels really well. and i think they have gotten better at that, which is why i would bet you are going to see more of these, you know kaman heard of breakout -- you know, breakout hits. and i think that they will be moving across more linkages and audience that otherwise would not have access. matt: how far away from saturation? i would expect that in 2021,
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that everybody who is going to get netflix already has it, so how far off my? -- off am i? tuna: that might be true in the u.s., where we are seeing slowi ng penetration levels. no surprise there. but there is runway in international markets. take asia-pacific, the market there is huge. and i think that streaming video has only just penetrated. so you can get a sense of the amount of upside in the international markets. granted, those markets are less than the u.s. and canada, which continued to be the major driving force for revenue and free cash flow. but ultimately, i think that you will see a convergence, whereby international will catch up.
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that is the story, the upside to the international market, and the continued opportunities, whether it be merchandising, like the deal with walmart, or video games. there's areas yet untapped. matt: it has been a pleasure talking to you. we are looking forward to the results after the bell. tuna amobi analyst at cfra, with a price target of $720 on netflix. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: on mark crumpton with first word news. north korea has fired what appears to be at least one
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ballistic missile for the first time in two years. south korea's military described the weapon as one designed for simmering base to launches. it is the latest in a series of tests from the north korean leader's regime. it came hours after the u.s. reaffirmed its offer to resume diplomacy on north korea's nuclear weapons program. in russia, officials are taking steps to battle a surge of covid-19 infections in the capital. at the moscow mayor said today that unvaccinated people over the age of 60 should stay-at-home for four months, beginning next week. moscow will also include a percentage of workers facing mandatory vaccinations and reintroduce a work from home requirement for at least 30% of employees until february. ireland will drop more virus restrictions this week, although it will retain rules that had been planted because of a surge in covid cases. the prime minister said today
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that capacity limits have been lifted for outdoor events, weddings and religious services. people must show proof of vaccination to enter bars and restaurants. their covid numbers have almost doubled in the past two weeks. the u.k. will allow london's heathrow airport to raise ticket surcharges by as much as 56%. heathrow has been at odds with airlines, over seeking to raise charges by as much as 95% to recover from the covid-19 pandemic. airlines have denounced the higher fees as they tried to bounce back from the downturn -- as they tried to bounce back from the downturn -- try to bounce back from the downturn. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ [bell ringing]
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matt: -- amanda: welcome to "bloomberg markets." matt: welcome our bloomberg audiences each day at this hour. here are the top stories from around the world. proctor and gamble shares fall as rising costs counter robust health care demand. we'll break down the company's earnings, hit by supply chains. and vivid goes public. we speak to the ceo of the company about their debut and the pent-up demand for live experiences. and the director general of the international atomic energy association will join the program. he sits down to discuss the situation in iran as he says nuclear surveillance in the country is no longer intact. amanda: quick check on the markets. and a focus on positive
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corporate earnings keeping things more buoyant. we have broad-based gains for the s&p 500, only consumer discretionary and stables are moving weaker. and we are seeing positive action. energy is one piece of the puzzle. a small component for the s&p 500. but it does paint a picture of what could be driving expectations for growth. the reopening trade doing well. the outlook for many is while the news on covid has been largely positive recently come in terms of trending global cases, so we will be talking about the reopening coming up. all of that in the mix. the 10 year at 1.6. steepness in the curve, but questions about how strong growth will be. we have been talking about bitcoin. and the new york stock exchange and grayscale have filed to convert the world's biggest
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bitcoin fund into an etf. competition is heating up in the space. the filing to flip the trust comes as we have been talking about the bitcoin strategy etf, the first trading in the u.s., investing in futures of that digital asset. and trust traded at a discount, giving this one an opportunity to compete in that etf space. matt: i think a lot of -- there's others that want to trade in the etf space as well, but will it be allowed. when i spoke to mike mcglone and other analysts who look at bitcoin more deeply than i do, they say that one of the problems is they would have to consider bitcoin a security in order to regulate that kind of etf, something they do not want to do.
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so it is unlikely you will see bitcoin etf in the u.s., actually back to buy bitcoin rather than a futures etf. amanda: much to be sorted out. the regulatory piece is no small piece at all. matt: i think it is the biggest one. time for our stock of the hour, p&g sales advance fine this quarter, but that and a price increase could not overcome a big rise in costs. we examine the supply chain squeeze in our stock of the hour. >> the maker of pampers diapers, for breeze and bounty paper towels, proctor and gamble actually beat estimates, but shares are lower on the day and has everything to do with supply chain issues. let me show you the numbers, because they had a 5% rise in revenue. but it was, like you say, that margin squeeze that has everything to do with this. and it has been a trend in play
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for a couple quarters now. the margin is something that you have not seen in years, 3.7% decline expected for the first quarter of 2022. really important when we talk about supply chain concerns. but what is contributing to it? it has to do with commodity costs, they continue to rise. specifically the chemical costs. you have diesel expenses, pulp expenses as well. not orange juice, i am talking about cardboard packaging. who knew it would have a major impact on p&g? this is something that analysts are pointing out that is good for the company because they are so big they can absorb the costs. in some ways, they are raising their own prices, just not enough to offset all the costs when it comes to the supply chain. amanda: where does that leave its competitors? do they have similar issues or are they responded in similar fashion? >> today is an up date in the
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markets, but you look at kimberly-clark, other competitors, they are down on the day by a significant margin and a lot of the expectation is based on in the coming weeks, as you see the earnings reports come out, you will hear the same dialogue that you heard from p&g, saying that they are going to have to absorb costs and it will affect their bottom line. they could buy the impact it is having on smaller companies that do not have as big of a balance sheet. matt: thanks for joining us, looking at p&g as our stock of the hour. vivid seats goes live. we will speak to the ceo on the pent-up demand for live experiences. we all want to get back out there, just give us a chance! this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is "bloomberg markets." online ticket market place vivid seats started trading today, making its debut just as live events are returning after a hiatus. joinin via -- well, via satellite, i guess, is the ceo, stan chia. would be great to have you live as well, but we will take this connection here. what has made you go public now and what are you going to do with the funds you raise? stan: thank you for having me. i love to be there live, but we
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will make do with the technology of today. an exciting day for the team and investors as we hit the public markets. for us, i think the vehicle and timing were important to us. we came to the public markets via spac. we went down that path to look for a strategic partner, and we struck the jackpot in who we found. we came to the public markets via todd bully's verizon acquisition. and when you look at the assets that todd has invested in threw himself or eldridge industries, you have ownership stakes in the dodgers and more recently the lakers. you have investments in draftkings. and when you look at vivid seats, we recently launched or enhanced our rewards program in july, were now we have 10% back in loyalty is on every single ticket that pans buy. we also have a draftkings perk. as we take about sports fans who
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potentially want to bet on the games at that they go to. so we are excited that we were able to find a strong, strategic partner in our journey to become a public company. amanda: of course, you will have a front row seat to how the pandemic unfolds. what is keeping you up at night? are you feeling good about the months ahead? stan: we are certainly excited about folks clamoring to come back. we saw the pent-up demand come back with some of the festivals during the summer, lollapalooza in chicago, which was such a credit to the venue and city for conducting a safe festival. thousands of people there in a safe environment there. and it would be disingenuous to say that we are not thinking about the delta variant, but again, much credit to the venue organizers for being stringent
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with safety protocols. but broadway reopening, ensuring that vaccines are mandated for folks to attend. we have seen, again, that vaccines are getting more broadly adopted. so we feel good about the pent-up demand. matt: lollapalooza is an event i can connect with. i look on your website and i see sean mendez, bts, and stuff i have never heard of, but now you are talking with lollapalooza. broadway, people have been so happy it's reopening and i have seen there is a lehman brothers trilogy, which i am excited to see. which events are the kids excited about right now? stan: i would say that bts, they have an army. and people are excited to go see them. when you bring it back to sports, tonight's game between the braves and dodgers, when we
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look at the data on it, it is the most in demand lcs game that we have had in the past five years. when you look at broadway, as it reopens, the joy of that coming back with some of the old favorites like "hamilton," and a lot of great productions there. the familiar names, the newer acts, i state -- i think the doors and fans, everybody is excited to get back to live events. amanda: you have capital raised, what is your plan for it? are there acquisitions in your future? stan: we have a net debt zero balance sheet coming out of this, combined with a new public currency. when you look at what we have been trying to do with the rewards program we started in july, i think that we have a great balance sheet that supports our strategy to invest organically in the brand, to
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drive awareness up. awareness is not just who we are, but why we are better. on the other side, should an organic opportunity surface, we will be ready to be aggressive, showed the opportunities arise. amanda: great to have you with us. we appreciate it. that is vivid seats' ceo. coming up, the board of the nuclear watchdog of the u.n. it is in the u.s. we will discuss that with rafael mariano grossi , next. stay with us. ♪
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amanda: this is "bloomberg markets." the head of the u.n.'s nuclear watchdog is in washington. our correspondent is with rafael
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mariano grossi, director of the international atomic energy agency. >> that is right, i am with rafael mariano grossi. thank you for joining us. you met with secretary blinken, and you just met with the foreign relations committee. how did this come about? who initiated this invitation to have these meetings? rafael: it is part of my normal business, to be close with all the member states. the u.s. is a key partner for the iaea, and of course there are topical issues of the day that we may be discussing, iran and other things, of which the u.s. has a great state. so it was logical for me -- stake. so it was logical for me to come. >> you met with michael pompeo on iran. what's the difference of the diverging policy, which is big with iran, before the form --
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between the administration before and this one? rafael: one thing i can say is the support of the united states to the iaea has been steadfast and permanent, irrespective of whether you have a republican or democrat in the white house. >> you came out with a number of reports during the trump administration, will that continue? the robustness of that? rafael: that is my job. again, irrespective of who is sitting in the white house. we have to inform. we have a massive inspection effort all over the world, in particular in iran. and we have to have our quarterly reports. on top of that, when something important happens, we need to also inform, so people know and maybe countries can take a stance about it. >> you brokered the most recent agreement in iran in terms of the iaea being able to
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surveillance what is going on in the centrifuge workshops. that was in september. when do you plan to go back? rafael: within a few days, i hope to be back in tehran. in september, we agreed i would be returning, because at that point we had technical conversations. of course, this is a vast issue that has not only political implications -- sorry, technical implications, but also there are deep political issues we must discuss. to come to an understanding about. there's a new government in iran, a government coming from a group that expresses very strong views about the nuclear program, cooperation with international organizations. so we need to add just -- adjust to each other, like with any relationship. and i have not had this opportunity yet, so i am going
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back. >> after you leave the u.s., at some point this month he will be going. who are you going to meet there? rafael: that is for them to decide. we'll have meetings at a high political level. >> potentially the new foreign minister? may be raisi? rafael: if he is so kind to see me. > the new government -- >> with the new government, what is the difference between this regime as opposed to rouhani and his team? rafael: it is clear that they came to power with a critical view on everything about the iaea, the way things happened, and i think that they have a different approach in general. and as we speak, there is an intention, i think from both sides, from the five plus one so
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to speak, germany under the coordination of the european union, and on the other side you have iran. and there's still, i underline "still," there's still an idea to go back to the negotiations they were having to see if they can come back to the agreement of which of the iaea we are the guarantee years, -- we are the guarantors. >> because of that role, you are in touch with a number of key stakeholders. what is the outlook if the mead music has been negative -- mood music has been negative? rafael: there're phases. when anything goes on for so long, it is inevitable that you will have deep points and better moments. at this moment, we are in a sort of uncertain phase, because the
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process is supposed to be continuing but at the same time there is an interruption or a pause. and all of the negotiators are positioning themselves to go back to that, but i am not a commentator of their thing, i have to do mine. >> but you have maintained all parties are still trying to negotiate in good faith. rafael: they are trying, yes. >> i want to turn your attention to other countries that have nuclear weapons. i think of china, russia, and iran, what is going on with north korea. is there a new risk tolerance for nuclear nonproliferation developing, especially with china and russia? rafael: when we talk about china, or russia, we should not forget that these countries have nuclear weapons. and they have nuclear weapons as part of a basic agreement that they would keep them in the expectation that they will in the long term disarm.
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but there are five permanent members of the security council that are not proliferating. they may have more weapons or less weapons, but the thing here is that what we have is perhaps, with the current situation, there is a perception that nuclear weapons could be --, at lease the numbers. >> china is the biggest nuclear energy power. rafael: i would not say so, it has a lot of nuclear energy and it is building a lot of new nuclear missiles -- >> energy. but how are you dealing with affection -- rafael: but the u.s. has 20% of its energy coming -- >> it will be the biggest, likely. rafael: but china has only 4% of its current energy from nuclear
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sources, but it is important because, as you know, china is one of the biggest emitters of co2, which is part of the big problem of global warming. and so it is a welcome thing that china is leaning so much on nuclear energy. >> and i'm sorry that you will be talking about this at -- i'm sure that you will be talking about this more at cop. very important meetings this week. matt: a very important interview. thank you very much for joining us. for amanda lane, i'm matt miller -- lang, i'm matt miller. this is "bloomberg markets." ♪
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>> the most crucial moments in the trading day. this is bloomberg markets: the
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close with caroline hyde, romaine bostick, and taylor riggs. caroline: 2:00 p.m. in new york. 11:00 a.m. in los angeles. special edition of bloomberg markets: the close. caroline: the best -- romaine: the best and brightest of mind to tackle the world's challenges. date two of the conference. former partner going to be live. great interview with him and an interview with sheila patel. caroline: she's going to put her money to work. not all the heavy hitters are out here. you are in new


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