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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  October 19, 2021 3:00am-4:00am EDT

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plus, an exclusive conversation with the barclays ceo. don't miss that interview later. dani: let's take a look at how the futures are trading. it is a calmer market. yields lower. we had a negative day yesterday, so that is certainly helping some of the picture we are seeing. how is that gmm board looking? tom: we will check in when it finally does open, but to your point about lower yields, that was reflected in terms of the technology space in china. part of that around the regulatory picture in china starting to ease up somewhat, but also that lower yield environment, the u.s. 10-year below 1.60. the ibex in spain gaining. the ftse 100 is up 0.2%.
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we have the commentary from the u.k. prime minister in that exclusive interview and more broadly as well the yield space in the u.k. continues to grind higher. the cac 40 is gaining 0.3%. and germany, the dax is gaining 26 points. let's have a look at the sectors. the likes of travel and leisure and autos that were near the bottom in terms of the sectors. today, you are seeing flat and terms of energy. energy prices started to move marginally. basic resources gaining. the banks, you are seeing losses of 0.2%. technology gaining 0.5%. dani: i want to dig deeper into the sectors. i have imap up for us. you can see the breakdown of how
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the sectors are looking. the really important ones, we you have financials losing some steam. some of that has to do with the lower yields. the higher yields helping this sector out without taking a leg lower. despite the fact that this overall risk on date. consumer discretionary, we are seeing infotech do better. a strong day for tech yesterday in the u.s. and asia. some of those trends just continuing. europe having to play a little bit of catch-up. we got the s&p 500 outperforming, nasdaq outperforming, then eventually having asia outperform, as well. tom: delivery hero is one company gaining. it is investing in a german grocery delivery company.
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that sector has been pushed higher by the pandemic demand for groceries in those deliveries. erickson did beat estimates. the warning in of the supply chain going forward, a potential drag on sales. wise is another company in focus coming out with their second earnings report since their direct listing in july. currently down. credit suisse warning investors may be surprised to the downside on this -- price cut. dani: price cuts definitely bucking the trend for companies hoping to increase their margin at a time when prices were high. u.k. prime minister boris johnson says the city of london will prosper outside of the eu, noting job losses and disruptions have been lower than feared since brexit. he told bloomberg's editor-in-chief john
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micklethwait that far fewer bankers have been moved out of the financial have then predict. >> the long-term reasons why the u.k. remains attractive in the short and medium-term reasons are all the fundamentals remain the same. the time zone, the language, the rule of law, the deep pools of liquidity in the city of london, the attractions of having some of the best university in the world, many of the best universities in the world. but this is also the moment. it is the moment. we have a series of things coming together. the u.k. is deciding to make a big bet on green technology. the government is going in, fitting the regulatory framework to encourage the private sector to come in in the way that they are. we are making a big bet on wind power, on hydrogen, on electric vehicles, on gigafactory, on all
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of those things. that is driving a lot of the investment. you are also seeing a government that is creating the bedrock, as it were, for industry -- for investment across the whole of the u.k. we are investing in huge quantities of new infrastructure, which we have long needed in this country, to address our productivity gap. we are putting about 640 billion pounds into infrastructure of all kinds, into technology, and into skills. that is different and new. >> you have the global captains, they are all coming to this conference, and they would all say the same thing that, yes, they like the city of london, but they are also hedging their bets by putting jobs in paris and amsterdam.
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behind all of it, they would say, look, we are an industry that brings in 160 billion pounds a year to the british economy. >> nonsense. nonsense. on the contrary, in 2008, 2 thousand nine, there was literally only one politician who spoke up repeatedly for the city of london, for bankers and that was me. i know that the city of london is crucial not just for our country, but for the whole of europe and for this hemisphere and for the world and that is why i think it is profoundly in the interest of our partners to ensure that we do have good relations, we do continue to see proper flow of capital and services between london and all the other parts of europe.
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and i'm sure that that will -- because if you want to raise money around europe, if you want to finance your merger or whatever it is -- london is still the place to come and it always will be. >> that is exactly what the hardheaded cap dividends -- captains of industry would say. you are stuck in these arguments about fishing, about finance. they are the people, as you well know, who are blocking the city of london's ability to be able to trade with the rest of europe. is it time to fix those squabbles? >> look, i've got great relations with the french government, with emmanuel macron, and will continue to ensure that the u.k. and france -- >> [indiscernible] >> i wouldn't dream, but -- of
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sharing a private conversation, but we have been whatever the phrase for a long long time. if you look at what we do around the world, we are close partners and we are friends and it is vital, it is the deep will of our population that should remain the case and we will continue to do great things together. is there a problem with the northern irish protocol? yes, there is, but we will fix that. i don't think that is the end of the world. tom: u.k. prime minister boris johnson speaking exclusively to bloomberg's editor-in-chief. the prime minister is hosting the global investment forum. we will beast -- be bringing you exclusive conversations. now, we will bring in our guest. thanks for joining us this
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morning. let's kick off with your views on the u.k. you are broadly constructive on the u.k. some would question that view given that the boe is clearly headed toward pricing in a hike as early as november, the concerns about the delta-plus variant in the u.k. what underpins your constructive view on u.k. assets at this point? >> the u.k. market at the moment is up over 15% year to date. you have valuations that are quite compelling. the other thing that is going on in the u.k.'s cyclicals have benefited from the market reopening opportunity with the covid vaccine rollout, which is seen as very market positive. you are seeing a massive increase in mende, so i think you've got the u.k. benefiting from lifting restrictions,
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economic data that is on the rise, and valuations that are very supportive of growth. you are right about the interest-rate sentiment. the bank of england is clearly very hawkish at the moment. they are expecting inflation up 4% by the end of the year. supply chain issues, all the narratives we have talked about for the last few weeks. we've got the cpi. this is good for financials. if you look at rates, they have gone from zero to around 61 basis points since march and the probability of a rate hike by the end of the year -- and remember the u.s. leads the u.k. in this regard, but the u.k. is firm. dani: markets have really repriced when it comes to the boe. 115 basis point moved by the end
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of 2022. given that the u.k. is still struggling with some of the issues, doubt, could we be heading for a policy issue if the markets do what we are expecting? >> there is always the potential for policy era, we have seen that in europe, the u.k., across the board. i think the market would be very quick to react in this situation, though there is a lot of talk around inflation and stagflation. there is a lot of talk around earnings numbers being too strong. it is clearly a time to be cautious. we are not expecting markets to run ahead. we are expecting very volatile markets in the short to medium-term governed by some of the policies that could be made based on the rhetoric around covid, global growth, china, stagflation, supply chain issues . they are all variables at the moment. tom: ok, thank you very much for
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your insight, as ever, this morning. coming up on today's program, and imminent hike in u.k. rates could be a boom for banks. we will speak shortly with the barclays ceo jes staley. more on the markets next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to the open. we are about 15 minutes into the european trading day, fighting to find direction. most of these benchmarks moving lower. broadly, the benchmark is higher by 0.6%. you can see the cac down. we have earnings coming on. some of the positivity premarket now turning around. prime minister boris johnson says the u.k. is still an attractive place to invest, adding the government is pumping billions into the economy as part of the level up agenda. johnson spoke exclusively with
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editor-in-chief john micklethwait. >> we are making a big bet on wind power, on hydrogen, on electric vehicle, on gigafactory, on carpet -- carbon capturing facility, on all of those things, and that is driving a lot of the investment. but you also see a government that is creating the bed rock for industry across the whole of the u.k.. we are investing in huge quantities of new infrastructure , which we have long needed in this country, to address our productivity gap, so we are putting about 640 billion pounds into infrastructure of all kinds, into technology and into skills. dani: let's keep that investing conversation going and get over to francine lacqua. she is joined by barclays ceo
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jes staley. good morning. >> good morning. amongst the turbines and first engine trains. i'm delighted to be joined by jes staley a barclays. jes: it's great to be here. >> we are going to focus on climate change and some of the things you are seeing out there. what do you need for finance at cop 26? jes: i feel a little bit guilty we are surrounded by steam engines, which created this climate issue, barclays was the first financer of steam engines. it is a great opportunity to come together and focus on the climate challenge and the role that the united kingdom is taking and trying to be a leader in dealing with the climate issue is terrific. one of the assets that the u.k. brings to the climate issue is
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great universities and great scientists and new ways to deal with the climate issue. i was recently in glasgow, where we have a new technology center. it has also to of universities around it. cambridge, oxford. i think the investment in technology, innovation, and science is one of the things the u.k. brings to dealing with this great challenge we all have. >> this is only one city trying to compete for this global role, so you are putting out there some of the strengths of the city of london. is there anything the government could do better to be more credible and attract more? is this important? what happens if it fails? jes: first of all, the banks will play a very important role in dealing with climate issues. we have our balance sheets to direct investment, but only to deal with the climate issue ultimately which is a $3
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trillion, $4 trillion, $5 trillion a year issue for the globe, there is no question that london is a center of the capital markets. therefore, finding investors that want to buy securities issued by companies and governments that are involved in the transition to a greener economy, london is going to play a very important role with that. barclays will play our role in that. we were jointly manager in underwriting the first gilt green bond issued by the british government. finance will play a big part and because of that, london will play a very big part. financing that change and understanding the challenges we have around transition, that is what this symposium is all about. >> what are you expecting today? will there be money on the
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table? what does barclays do to speed up or exit ground financing? jes: the important thing is what the british government is laying down, from the prime minister to the chancellor, they want the u.k. to be a leader in addressing the climate issue. they are dedicating the resources of the british government and the city of london in order to do that. they want a leading role. they've got the ability to take a leading role. and the banking community and financing community should be supportive of the british government in doing that. >> is there anything you need from the u.k. government away from green finance that would make your life easier? what do they need to do for finance today? jes: we also need to acknowledge that we have gone through hopefully once in a century pandemic. governments around the world, but very much the u.k. government, stepped into some part the british economy -- in to support the british economy.
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the british financial system. if you think about what we were facing a little over a year ago when the pandemic really hit, and you had the greatest economic contraction we have seen in our lifetimes, and now we have a recovery we haven't seen since the end of world war ii, it is quite remarkable with the government has done to step in to deal with the pandemic and give places like london the financial wherewithal to do with this climate issue. >> but huge uncertainties ahead. you don't exactly know where interest rates go because of the inflationary pressures. is there anything they could do better? jes: they have a really, really tough game to play going forward. the deficit is high. the balance sheet of the bank of england is high. you are seeing signs of inflation, whether it is transitory or something more long-term. they have to begin to stop the quantitative easing, to taper like people talk about. that is going to be a real challenge.
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you have issues of supply chains. you have issues of growing inflation. to navigate economically what is going on for the next year or so is going to be a real trick for everybody. >> what is your biggest challenge going forward? i know you can't talk about earnings, but given all these factions and things you need to deal with, how does the return to the office go? jes: barclays, we have come out of the -- in the first six months of the year, it was the most profitable six months in the history of the bank. we have never had the level of capital that we have today. the bank is quite strong. we need to make sure we're doing our part to give back to the u.k. and to give back to the global economy. we need to do that. we need to understand how we help small businesses and consumers as they go through this. that is one of the particular challenges of the bank. we have a lot of resources to chase that challenge and i'm pretty optimistic that we and
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the governments will be able to navigate through the next couple of quarters and next years. there are challenges out there, there are people that are suffering, all of the challenges being called -- caused by the supply chain issue is real, but i think ultimately human ingenuity and the strength of the bank will get us through this. >> what is your take on people coming back to the office? are they happy to be back? i many people are back? --how many people are back? jes: in the united states, the vast majority of our people are back in. you are last -- allowed to ask if someone is vaccinated or not in the u.s., so we are only asking vaccinated employees back . people generally want to get back into the office. when you've got eight people on a zoom call, that works, but when you've got eight people
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where six are in an office together and two are on zoom, the two of resume want to get back into the office. i think there will be a momentum building about people getting back to work. flexible working is going to stay with us. i think it was here before the pandemic. i think the iphone created that. in the old days, you would work from 8:00 in the morning until 7:00 at night and when you got home, you were done. now, you get home and you are looking at your emails from your job at 9:30 get night. i think flexible working is here to stay. we did a survey prior to the pandemic, most of our employees were only working four days a week in the office and taking a fifth day somewhere traveling, etc. -- i think that will continue. i believe -- a brand-new campus has been opened in glasgow. it is a phenomenal facility. people will come into the office. >> how much time do you spend
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thinking about crypto and what you should be doing in that space? jes: we think a lot about crypto. we are working quite a bit with the bank of england. they are very focused on it. i don't think that unregulated crypto market has much room. it will have its place. clearly, the regulators need to be focused on what is it being used for? is it illicit, etc.? the real issue is about central-bank digital currencies. digital currencies supported by central banks around the world. i know the bank of england is very focused on it. one of the critical points that people need to realize is one of the central functions of banks is we take deposits. we take those deposits and we make loans. we give mortgages, loans to consumers. if we lose the deposit base, we lose the ability to make loans. i don't think the central banks
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want to get into the business of extending credit. there is going to have to be a navigation. i do think we will be digitizing the transactional part of payment in some sort of cryptocurrency supported by a central bank, has a role, but we have a lot of thinking to do first. >> thank you so much for the time today. we saw a whole lot of delegates going to the plenary. jes staley from barclays. back to you in the studio. tom: great conversation, thank you very much indeed. plenty more fantastic guests coming up from the global investment summit taking place today. bloomberg is speaking exclusively to the goldman sachs ceo at 11:45 a.m. apple has unveiled its revamped macbook pro lineup featuring its most popular -- powerful homegrown chips yet. it is a major step toward ending the 15-your reliance on the likes of intel.
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more on that after the break. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are 30 minutes into the european trading day. >> is there a problem with the northern irish protocol? yes there is, but we will fix that. >> boris johnson vows to solve an impasse over northern ireland's post-brexit status. we bring our exclusive conversation with the prime minister. apple ditches intel chips.
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next on the earnings, netflix tonight. plus, optimism over the upcoming launch of the first bitcoin futures etf in the u.s.. certainly a more calm day. bond yields moving lower. the bank of america investor. survey hitting the wire. -- investor survey hitting the wire. >> guests tell us there is a lot of cash. a lot of dry powder that can be put to bed. a lot of that has been put to play in the european markets on the back of this rokeach and -- rotation for cyclicals of value. i was off, i missed it today. the stoxx 600 essentially flatlining. the dax is flat. the cac slack. the ftse 100 as well.
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gilts edging higher. broadly, it is the lower yield picture. you in play in hong kong. basic resources gaining 1%. a mixed picture when it comes to commodities. u.k. gas prices lower. brent and wti comfortably past $80 a barrel. that momentum seems to continue. in terms of technology, that is part of the slightly softer yield story. telecoms, health care, and insurance. that is the shape of play 30 minutes into the trading session. >> that dreaded unch on some of
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those indexes. boris johnson says he does not want to turn away investment despite concerns of his own lawmakers. he spoke exclusively to bloomberg in a wide-ranging interview. they also discuss what actions the u.k. is seeking on climate change ahead of the cop-26 summit. >> when i was running london, i went out several times to china and had fantastic trips. there is no investment in stuff that drives jobs and growth, whether it is development. look what is happening in greenwich. things have taken off because of chinese investment. i'm not going to tell you the u.k. government is going to pitch away every overture from
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china. of course not. china is a gigantic part of our economic life and will be for a long time, for our lifetimes. that does not mean we should be naive in the way that we look at our critical infrastructure. you mentioned power, you mentioned 5g technology. those are legitimate concerns that many other governments around the world have. i have said this many times, it is worth repeating. i am no sign of hope. >> cabinet -- >> china is a -- >> would you let them by wind power? >> you would have to look at
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what you are defining as strategic or critical. i certainly think having -- our trading relationship with china, in spite of the difficulties, all the angry conversation, the difficult conversations about the dalai lama or hong kong for the uighurs, we will continue to stick to our points. we will stick to our views. but trade with china has continued to expand for a very long time and probably will continue the rest of our lives. that does not mean we should be -- we should be cautious about rcn i -- our cni. that is why we brought in the legislation we have. >> xi jinping looks unlikely at
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the moment, what do you think is a realistic goal? >> i think cop was always going to be extremely tough. we are hoping we will get a wind turbine's in spite of the pandemic. what we will be focused on is contributions in decreasing co2, making hard pledges. plus we want commitments on coal, cash, and trees. we want to move away from coal by 2040. 2030 for other developed nations. we want to make sure everybody stops using hydrocarbon fuel internal combustion engine cars. the u.k. is in the lead. we said we would stop that by 2030. we want the package in the developing world to help countries that have not been historic emitters. we need that $100 billion a year. the last thing is we want to
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make sure we plant millions and millions of trees to help fix the balance of nature. we need nationally determined contributions. we need to keep 1.5 alive. we need to restrict growth in temperatures to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century. we think with commitments we are seeing we could do it, but we need to see real action from participants in glasgow. >> boris johnson speaking to bloomberg's editor in chief. let's get the first word news now. >> the fda is reportedly planning to allow a mix-and-match approach for covid booster shots. the agency could act as soon as this week. it is likely to not recommend one vaccine over another, but may say it is preferable to use the same vaccine when possible.
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the moderna ceo told us the company expects an fda decision soon. >> we expect this week. ac/dc meeting is scheduled this week. -- a cdc meeting is scheduled this week. i'm hopeful by next week americans can get the booster. >> the eu may trigger a new tool to freeze funding to member states failing to adhere to democratic standards. the so-called conditionality mechanism could be applied against hungary and poland which are accused of rule of law violations. hungary would forfeit billions of euros. the eu justice commissioner says the legal order could be deployed within days. >> democracy and fundamental
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rights. if we are not doing that at home like we tried to do, it is going to be difficult to be credit -- credible when we are speaking outside of europe. >> global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> thank you. coming up, apple's macbook revamp. tech giant taking on its most aggressive step yet to strip intel chips from its computers. netflix earnings due out today. that is next. ♪
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>> welcome back to the open. we are 42 minutes into the trading day. in terms of a sector breakdown, basic resources at the top of the list. at the bottom you have telecoms down 0.5%. health care lower by 0.4%. personal care, food and beverage also lower. i want to check on the yuan.
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this is the offshore. 6.39. some of the strategists suggesting stability in the energy prices the past 24 hours of the chinese currency. also the view this rrr cut could be pushed out until the first quarter of 2022. we will be looking for the fix. 9:15 local time in beijing tomorrow, to see if this is causing discomfort. >> let's turn to tech. yesterday apple showcased their latest lineup of devices. the new macbooks, airpods, and speakers. they unleashed their own processors. apple unveiled the new macbooks are powered by their m1 chips. it disrupts a relationship between the companies for about 15 years.
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apple shares rose as much as 1.4% following the event yesterday. for more we are joined by bloomberg's alex webb. i'm not sure if you are planning to buy any of these, but what do you make of apple's latest move to get away from intel? how damaging will this be? to intel itself. >> they have gradually been -- manufactured by tsmc in taiwan. any impact on intel is going to be built into the stock already at this stage. intel is not really the big money spender anymore. it is not good news for them. mark: what about netflix
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earnings? can we expect more positive results? that very addictive show, squid game. >> analysts are looking for 3.7 million additional subscribers in the first part of the year, a slowing in the pace of new subscribers. we are seeing the drip of new show lineups hit the platform, that is driving new subscriptions. whether they can drive the pace of what is expected, and of course how we look ahead into the fourth quarter of the year is going to be accelerating even more. those are the headline numbers
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people are going to be looking for. >> successful shows setting the expectations bar higher. netflix internally, we have this scoop that the korean megahit was valued at $900 million. what do those numbers mean? how did they arrive at that? >> that is the sort of analysis, you think of the lifetime value of a customer. if i sign up for netflix, they might expect me to keep that subscription for two years on the basis i am paying $10 a month. that means my lifetime value is $240. so many tens of millions have signed up for netflix because of various shows. that helps them work out the driving subscription and lifetime value each show is generating. it helps them work out how much they should be spending on
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content and how much they should be spending on marketing. that is the customer acquisition cost. >> thank you for breaking that down. how netflix values its shows ahead of those earnings. talking about apples build out of its own semiconductors and chips, replacing intel, on the back of that story you have alibaba revealing and unveiling one of the most sophisticated chips china has ever seen. a five nanometer chip. it has been seen as marking a milestone in terms of how china is building out semiconductors. they are going to keep his in-house but it is building out into their own service. let's get the bloomberg business now. >> american express will allow staff to work from wherever they
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want for at least four weeks per year. employees will be placed into one of three groups. the company's ceo said in a memo to staff that the staff will work hybrid schedules and beat in the office an average of two days a week. goldman sachs raised its forecast for a benchmark european gas price by 70% as tighter than expected supplies from russia worsened sector shortages as winter approaches. natural gas units up. the sec has debunked concern -- conspiracy theories around gamestop trading. a new report analyzes the period when retail traders took on wall street, sending gamestop shares and other meme stocks soaring. the commission says market dynamics warrant closer scrutiny
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including shortselling. and did not offer specific policy recommendations. that is your bloomberg business flash. >> coming up, copper continues its rally on the back of -- we will have a look at that with the markets live team next. ♪
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>> welcome back to the open. flat across the stoxx europe 600. the ibex gaining. a bond auction in spain later today. basic resources gaining 1%. telecoms down 0.7%. let's take a look at the stories we are following. we will have the latest rate decision from hungary's central bank and shortly after that it is u.s. housing as well. we know the housing sector in the u.s. has been red hot. we will get data on residential constructions, building permits, a key indicator. >> a big day for netflix.
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we are expecting the third quarter earnings off the back of the countries -- the company's successful series squid game. finally steve mnuchin and kathy woods do to speak at the milken institute global conference. let's get back to the markets. i promise i won't ask about squid game. one of the markets you and the mliv team have been watching his copper. copper prices above $10,000. usually this is seen as a sign of demand in a growing economy, but there are oddities. >> absolutely. the bloomberg commodity index, 33% this year? that is ridiculous value. the biggest since the 1970's. but if you focus on copper in particular, the thing to note here is that copper that is due for delivery has skyrocketed versus due for delivery three
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months from now by over $1000. a couple weeks ago it was at six dollars. demand is really skyrocketing for this metal. right now, the energy crunch is really pushing demand. >> that is interesting given what we are seeing in terms of the slowing growth picture for china. part of the story as well, ever grant -- evergrande. you have had the pboc governors saying they can contain this. where do we stand on all things evergrande? >> i have held that i don't see a wider contagion to all macro markets. it has never been a question of whether china can step in. it is whether they want to. recently they have said we will step in. they have encouraged banks to help the property sector recently. previously they stopped evergrande from their construction.
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they stopped them from their bond payments so they can meet other constructions. realistically you see a scenario where the pboc and china are in charge of the property market. they have said now is the time to face this and that is what we are seeing. a lot of my colleagues would argue otherwise. evergrande is a big story, i just don't see a scenario where the pboc stands by unless the financial status of their country crumble. >> i also feel like we can't let you go without asking about bitcoin's hotly anticipated futures etf launching today, the first of a few to come. it might attract more inflows to the triple qs, of course a very popular etf. what is the corollary or the function of the etf's versus a move higher in the bitcoin price?
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>> two schools of thought. initially, for cash-based futures equities, you are realistically diverting attention away from cryptocurrency. realistically as well, traditional funds have not dipped their foot -- their feet in the water when it comes to cryptocurrency. the sec has not regulated it. the concept of them accepting this ties back to the 1940's act that pertains to the volatility you see in cryptocurrencies and the risk that comes from them. the other thing to keep in mind is now you have seen the realistic manifestation of that interest from markets, especially wall street in cryptocurrencies. it is a step in the right direction for this market. >> thank you, from our mliv team on what is driving these markets. the stoxx 600 gaining just over 0.1%. basic resources at the top of the sectors, gaining more than
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1%. some stability in the energy prices. >> coming up we are going to have surveillance early addition. we have lots of earnings and we will speak to erickson. the market coverage continues. that is it for "the european market open." ♪
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>> we need to restrict the growth in temperatures to 1.5° by the end of the century. is there a problem with the northern irish protocol, there is, but we will deal with that. he is a staunch low tax conservative. china is a gigantic part of our life and it will be for a long time. that does not mean that we should be naive. >>

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