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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  October 13, 2021 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT

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singapore. the authority unexpectedly tightening policy by increasing its currently see -- it's currency flow. your about to get a rate decision in sri lanka. the central bank governor joins us exclusively. let's take a look at what is going on market wise. seeing currently a bit of status. equities in the u.s. moved to the upside. we have recovery hopes stoking some positivity. any k2 25, 9/10 of 1%. -- the nikkei 225, 9/10 of 1%. looking at the kospi, continuing on from the gains we saw in the session tuesday. part of all this is the yield picture as well. the u.s. 10 year, 1.5 5%. overnight because of the cpi read, we did see a move to 1.6% handle. currently, also a bit of thinking that if the yield
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should rise to one and three quarters of 1%, japanese lake insurers are expected to boost their buying of u.s. governments. the one point 75% mark for tenure notes as a potential entry point. looking at australia, the 10 year yield 1.64%. interesting decision coming out of sri lanka. the central bank deciding to keep things on hold there as we will be talking to the central bank governor right now. he joins us exclusively from colombo with the reasons behind the rate decisions or lack of rate decision with the standing deposit rate at exactly 5% as had been anticipated. let's get to the governor. thank you for joining us. we have david with me as well. we have no change. give us a sense of the thinking in these times for your economy
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facing all sort of headwinds as we discussed. >> thank you. always a pleasure. we are holding rates because we believe the last curve that started a few months ago is being responded to and we don't need to make any changes right now. we see the response being there has been a gradual increase in interest rates. we have seen the government able to manage finances with the initial rate. we have seen growth rising and we don't want that to end too soon. we have seen the growth momentum is back again after the lockdown was removed. with the global conditions moving toward the benign level and tourism once again being a real possibility in sri lanka, we think holding the rates would be the best option to go forward. rishaad: are you comfortable
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with the exchange rate? it has not been the best performing currency. >> this year khmer exchange rate has depreciated by about 6.8 percent, which i believe is somewhat higher than it should have had. at the same time, times are difficult. there have been some perceptions that have pushed the exchange rate to faster than we would have wanted. we are working toward ensuring that the inflows as well as the g2 g inflows take place, which would assist us to pull back the change rate so conditions would be much easier for the debt repayment as well as for the government's drive to ensure prices remain at reasonable levels for the people. rishaad: that has not been the case. that is one of the issues that
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you are having to face and that is one of the reasons you might have hiked. with all that behind you, let's take a look at how inflows are coming. you mentioned tourism coming back. what is the window for that and if it does meet your expectations, does it mean that your debt repayment efforts will be back on track? >> very much so. we are expecting the inflows to be quite strong during this quarter. we are expecting it to be even stronger next quarter. tourism will be back by december according to estimates. sri lanka has a vaccinated more than half its population and almost the entire population above 30, which makes us responsive to tourism once again. we expect new tourists will come in from roundabout december. we can attract at least one quarter of the taurus we had in 2018. that would be a substantial
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inflow, which we are expecting to have. that is the overall plan. we are already -- the six-month plan of the new inflows we are looking at. the inflows that involve the monetization is one of the key strategies. we expect that to materialize in due course. rishaad: does that mean -- it may be too little for the million dollar bond payment. also have to pay back a $1 billion bond in july. in the interim, do you need to go to the imf? is the imf route turned off? >> it is not necessary at the moment because we are comfortable about making the repayments in the january and july payments. we have got certain other inflows also lined up. at the same time, i did not
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respond to your earlier question. the global commodity prices have been rising. that is one of the reasons we need to ensure the rupee exchange rate is also not rising and we have a reasonable exchange rate so the vices of commodities in sri lanka, particularly oil as well as gas do not go up to a high. the imf would have asked us to keep the commodity prices to be reflect did in the condition -- to be reflected in the conditions of the commodity. we are also looking at new inflows. it is kind of a program we are putting in place that could sometimes -- that is why we believe without inflicting any pain to her creditors, since we are able to manage, we don't want to any further because we are
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comfortable about making all the repayments. rishaad: we mentioned other funds. tell us what they are and my second part of the question is is the next part of the meeting live and could we expect a hike anytime soon? >> the rights that we have now are appropriate for the time being. i believe the response of the markets is that we are still in the pipeline to have a few more adjustments in our policies. may not be a rate decision. we would have other policies being put in place to ensure it is converted. who have other policies. who will bring in other policies that will ensure the banking system becomes more sound. those policies are on the cards. the rates are sufficient for the time being. unless there is an extraordinary
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situation emerging, we can keep these rates at the same levels for the reasonable will period of time rishaad: rishaad:. always a pleasure. the newly reappointed sri lanka central bank governors joining us from colombo. data out early. inflation numbers from china. david: there are certain things we need to know at this point in time, we are getting a lot of inflation numbers coming through, 20 six your height takes you back to 1986 and kim ng well within the range of forecasts. the other thing is there is an adjustment taking place these last couple of days and you see it steadily when you see this next part coming up, two your yields climbing high this week and the central bank governor we spoke with, there is a rethinking. some central banks might hold,
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and because of the markets and what the fed will do, you see short fields try to push up and this is reflective of market expectations, tapering, rate rises are being rethought this week. when you look at the pricing, as things stand, the yellow line cannot markets have fully priced one rate hike from the fed come december of next year. that has been brought forward to where we are. this tightening is in focus amidst a market that seems to be looking through it, whether that is chinese bonds or asian equities. i will leave this year, vonnie quinn is in new york and has her headlines. vonnie: singapore central bank has tightened -- as pressures building. it's twice yearly decision -- given their high exposure to trade.
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core inflation in 2022 elaborated one to 2%. president biden wants to break a long jam of u.s. imports and a stable holiday shortages and delays. he said in the port of los angeles will operate around the clock and retailers have pledged to step up logistic efforts. shortages would be a political nightmare for president already facing concerns that his policies are stoking inflation. china promising people will be kept warm this winter and long-term climate goals will be met. they are speeding up construction of wind and solar projects. china's energy crisis will force nationwide power cuts to factories. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. in i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg.
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rishaad: bloomberg markets, goldman sachs telling us why -- were going to hear from the cohead of investment banking and others later. david: chips in focus, third quarter today -- sebastian will be coming on the show in a couple of minutes to talk us through his expectations and his call for the ongoing chip crisis. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> a>> college student during the great separation in the 70's, there are differences in persistence and inflation. yes. i believe it is more than
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transitory. >> there are transitory forces and as long as we see inflation expeditions remaining anchored and -- we expect to see a return to normalcy by next year. >> prices, oil, gas, coal prices are a serious challenge for the global economic recovery through higher inflation. >> the biggest worry to be sure is stagflation. >> my baseline case is not for stagflation. rishaad: the prospects of that as word -- s word amid these pressures, david: stephanie. no, stagflation.
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let's bring in kathleen hays to talk about this. kathleen, let's talk about prices out of china, 26 year high, we know what drove the prices up? kathleen: it had a lot to do with commodity prices, anything to do with energy, so many problems around the coal that china uses to power things and create power. the steel rebar prices, a 47% year-over-year, that is what is driving it up. let's look at the charts and i will tell you what the numbers are because year-over-year, almost 11% for china's ppi in the month of september, stronger than the forecast number. food prices have been falling, particularly pork so you get down to 0.7%, the number any central banks would like to see. when you talk about start inflation, one of the things that is interesting is you have
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to think about what rising prices do to consumers and businesses. especially when it is commodities like energy, if i have to pay more to heat my house or run my plate are not going to spend as much. you see china ppi versus the global cpi and they do tend to run together. you can see the spread is getting wider. that is the story there that people are concerned that china's price pressures as they go into producing china's goods at a higher cost are going to go into exports that other people by as imports and it turns their cpi higher. that's what people are watching closely. the contractionary effect it can have on economies when prices are rising. if there is any worry to the government, i would think that is the one for china. rishaad: u.s. cpi is also beholden to some of these
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factory get numbers out of china . kathleen: i would not doubt it. the closer we get to holiday shopping, we empty the shelves and anytime something from $32 goes to $52, it's going to be even more. write out 5% year-over-year on the headline cpi, bidding the forecast by the 10th. zero .4 on the monthly september number, but .1% stronger. the cpi that takes out food and energy it is not quite as high, but we are showing the china cpi -- china ppi against u.s. cpi. but it is still well above 4%. this shows up in the minutes of the fed's september 21-22 meeting, they announced a they are getting ready to taper, maybe november. as long as economic recovery
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continues even broadly, they're not asking for speed up, just keep moving ahead, we are going to taper in mid november or december. they're going to take their $80 a month and treasuries, make that 10 a month and then they take securities, they will reduce that to five. they will move down quickly so they can be done by the middle of next year. i am convinced that one of the reasons they want to make sure they are towed by the middle of next year's they cap start raising rates until they start -- stop tapering. that's why the timetable is important. by the middle of next year, maybe inflation has come down. navy it was longer than they thought but it has gotten more well. that's a big question. let's see if the bond market is confident about that as they have told us they are. rishaad: kathleen hays of--our global economics and policy editor. more on price pressures to the team today, asking how lasting inflation will affect assets.
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joining us now. inflation data coming overnight in the u.s., we finished talking about that and then occasions are that is pressures are far from that dirty word, transitory effects. it goes be on that. after volatile sessions, bond yields take a notable step down and it seems counterintuitive. -- i don't think he can hear me. we will try and get back to him. but it is on how we saw a move after 1.6% on the 10 year in the u.s. and now retrading? 1.5%. people can't make up their minds. david: when you look at the long
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and especially, as you move beyond the 10 year, markets are telling us that any tightening is starting to show up in growth numbers ahead. that is one way to look at it. equity markets are looking through this. we will see how long that lasts but risk assets are catching a bid as we speak. plenty more ahead, we will talk more about this and take a closer look at southeast asia and what is happening in singapore just ahead. this bird -- this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: this is bloomberg markets, we were just asking about inflation in the u.s.. this is some of those sources saying it could be transient as well.
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but after a volatile session, bond yields took a noticeable step down and that doesn't seem counterintuitive. -- does seem counterintuitive. >> i think what is happening is the transitory narrative is losing its potency. while the fed got minutes out this week, they also like that. we got a situation where investors are now pricing in that the fred -- fed will act by tapering stimulus it also it will be ready to pull the trigger on rate increases when needed. that reassurance has taken heat out of the treasuries market. that was where yields would take off because of the monster. instead, the policy outlook is better and along with one of the things that has happened with this stagflation narrative is we
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are also seeing expectations for growth. with or without fed policy tightening, because of the impact of high-energy prices and other supply shocks. bonds are looking a lot happier now than they were a few days ago. david: equities, too. does that last? garfield: equities are looking -- actually, equities are looking pretty calm mostly. you are outside -- in china japan, one noticeable thing is that there is concerned that equities are going down. yes they have come off the boiler but they are close to record highs. there just trucking along ok. the hope is that the central bank makers will pull the right policy triggers and they will
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overcome some of the impact. equities are calm for the moment. and bonds are happier. that is the picture. rishaad: garfield reynolds, thank you. let's move to the business flash headlines. roughly $1.5 billion in cash, it sold for 45% interest in the sierra. because of a copper mine in chile. a corporation includes a contingent consideration of up to $500 million. funding be via accommodation of cash on hand and an unwritten $1 billion acquisition. jp morgan -- reached a tripling here. just under $12 billion, results
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overshadowed by you did loan growth which fell shy -- muted loan growth which fell shy of expeditions. jamie dimon says we will take -- spend whatever it takes. so they do not lose their presence in fintech. david: a snapshot of what is happening across the big ribs in the region, asia-pacific, hong kong is shut and earlier, we are seeing equities moving through. concerns about tightening and inflation coming through, energy taking a step down. we are slowly making our way into the earnings season and your heaviest weighted stock on the nikkei to do five as you can see, up ¥800, about 1%, said to report earnings later today.
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watch out for that. you can still see -- the dollar yen trading, an inverse relationship between the current index. rishaad: come up -- coming up we discussed semiconductor supply chain issues. we (announcer) if you've struggled to lose weight, you might think you were born with a slow metabolism, but what you may have is insulin resistance. fat becomes trapped inside your body and it becomes very difficult to lose weight. now there's golo. golo works to reverse the effects of insulin resistance, increase metabolic efficiency, and targets stubborn belly fat. join over two million people who have found a smarter way to lose weight and get healthier. go to golo.com and change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com.
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>> it is 10:20 9 a.m. in hong kong and shanghai. opec has lowered estimates for global oil consumption this year. demand growth has seen $5.8 million a day. expected to boost petroleum use in some areas such as power generation. opec says that could curb demand in other fields.
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the eia has hiked its 2022 oil price forecast by six dollars a barrel. the finance ministers of the world's biggest economies have endorsed a global tax overall. governments reached a deal over a minimum rate to be set at 15% for corporations. plans for digital taxes has been scrapped after the u.s. said they were discriminatory. the stage has been set for g20 leaders to approve the accord later this month. the big bet against the hong kong -- the hong kong dollar has fizzled. the sec said the wage ensnared some high profile names. steve bannon among them. alleges he gave cash to a start up through an illegal stock offering. some of this money was allegedly directed to a hedge fund. the sec says more than 90% of more than the $30 billion was lost. it has been revealed netflix employees raise concerns about a
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dave chapelle comedy special before its release. they weren't executives -- they warned executives jokes about transgender people were damaging. netflix told bloomberg it supports artistic expression. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. david: semi conductor stocks have been in focus. you have one of the biggest if not the biggest. tsmc said to report earnings. we're looking at some gains across some of the big chipmakers. let's zero in on tsmc out with earnings. a quick look at valuations. we have come down in terms of
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price, which has taken or pulled back some of these multiples from 30 times earnings at the start of the year. no trading at 21, 22, 23. two standard deviations above where you are historically on the stock. is it time to get in given the chip crunch? rishaad: i cannot answer that but certainly we can get over to a senior investment analyst. joining us now. thanks for joining us. to david's question. >> i think the key focus on the earnings today, it will be on -- more focus on the capital expenditure outlook. i think we are seeing the massive investment requirements for other countries and also the
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chip shortage. every country has wanted to have a secure supply chain. everyone adding the capex. tsmc is one of those companies that are going to internationally, globally one to expand the capacity. different from the strategy in the past. the company we talk about, the three-year investment will be 100 billion. u.s. dollars. i think the consensus has been stated that has to be raised. that is the potential. if it does not happen this time, it will happen in the next one to two quarters. that will be the key spotlight for the after earnings call. david: i'm glad you brought it up because a quick glance at cash flows, investing cash flows has pointed to the fact it has
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been investing. how large of a number can we expect -- that goes into the bigger picture. the capacity issue that the industry is grappling with. >> i think the one thing we can get from the tsmc chairman, he did an interview with the media. he mentioned that the three-year will be just enough. there is a chance that is not enough. it could be higher. this year has already passed. the next few years for an outlook, there is a chance for the capex to be higher. i think the consensus looks like they are looking at 115 to 120. the reason we have made a report
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about that, it will be more to build there. they also implied that that has not been included in the previous guidance. currently, that is another million. that is where the numbers could be -- could perform. david: the other big news this week was apple and market rethinking how much it can ship because of the shortage. not just one factor. a couple of factors leading to the shortage we see. which of those factors do you think goes away this time next year? >> i think there are two elements. first is the supply chain disruptions. the locked down here and there that caused the shortage.
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the shortage of particular components. leading to months from now, theoretically, the covid situation should be improved given the more vaccination. also on the supply side, we are seeing the semi conductor manufacturer putting in capex. they are adding capacity to address the issues. the problem is the capacity will take some time to come online. by the secnav of next year, we think some of the supply tightness situation will ease. by the same time next year, the next generation iphone will probably face less of the tightness situation as we sell today. rishaad: part of the problem has
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been it was the auto industry that first of all flagged up the semi conductor shortages. it spread to others. is it because these big foundries are not interested in producing low edge customers to high-tech chips, which they are also struggling to keep up with demand i guess because they must have bigger margins? >> exactly. there are a couple reasons behind that did you highlighted two reasons. the first is the economy. those -- and they are running at fully depreciated assets. it is not -- there is not much incentive for them a fracture is to put into new cap because there is a new depreciation burden. it looks different from what they are already producing today. the pricing needs to be higher before they have interest to put
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into capex to build the capacity. second is on the supply side. given that many people added capacity or by the equivalent in the nice -- the past decade, which means equivalent suppliers have not been making the equivalent. that is why -- there is a supply issue on the equivalent. that is why you see -- supply is the key problem because the uneven component shortage of this time around. that will also take some quarters before that can be resolved. rishaad: very quickly here, the nature of the industries changed a lot. does that mean one has to look at the pick and shovel makers rather than the companies themselves? >> we always forgot about the
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frugality. we will be much reduced compared to the past given we have so many new applications as compared to the past and only driven by smartphone or personal computer. auto electric vehicle, iot, new applications. the structural demand driver is pretty strong. good prospects that will reduce the cyclicality. that is likely to be reflected in the earnings the next couple quarters. even the some concerns about the supply disruption. we think that will be short-term because the strong demand will digest that in the short time.
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rishaad: thank you. we are getting some headlines that taiwan will not strike first to cause a war. that is from the defense ministry. we also have china opposing certain things that taiwan may be up to. david: that is meeting with personnel in the u.s. not to any of these headlines should come as a massive surprise. china is also urging as it pertains to this, opposing u.s. officials meeting. taiwan reiterating that it will not strike first to cause a war. that is according to the defense ministry. let's tell you what is coming up on the show. the singapore central bank just
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a couple of hours ago unexpectedly tightening monetary policy settings, joining other global policymakers sounding the alarm over inflation. we will talk about that. sticking to the targets this year. all that is just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: with give a brief look at southeast asia. latest to come on is vietnam. nothing consistent. the big surprise was in singapore. david: it is this unexpected move to tighten its currency policy. the way it manages things. it is a sign they are worried about inflation. we have growth rising in line with estimates. let's get to ramsey in singapore. give us a sense of the thinking in the mas. >> good morning. the mas surprised a lot of folks in the market. going into the decision, most
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economists were expecting it to hold steady. they came in and they take into policy in the unique way they do here. they're going to let their currency rise slightly. the reason why they do that is they counteract imported inflation they will start running about. inflation is a concern for global bankers everywhere. as they start to pull back from the pandemic era stimulus. what singapore is saying is they are worried about import related costs. rising commodity prices we have seen in china. coming through into power and energy prices. they are seeing riser labor costs as businesses begin to reopen. because it was a surprise, the market was surprised. the singapore dollar popped .3%. against the u.s. dollar. the highest in three weeks. it brought people by surprise by
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tightening but the reasons why they are doing it our own trend with what we are seeing in other countries. david: it does not seem that the inflation factors that they talked about whether that is supply or labor shortages are issues that can be resolved by changing the currency or tightening policy. what is the underlying thinking and how does it feel does it feel like an economy that might be overheating? >> that is a great question. the way that they tried to tame price pressures is by letting -- by managing the currency. i hope i don't mess this up. it is a complex process. the local currency is depreciating against a basket of currencies. that means it takes out some of
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the imported caused pressure because so much of the inputs in this economy come from imported goods. it is hard to -- it is easier to manage that sort of cost pressure if you are letting your currency strengthen against your trade partners. and so i would say the outlook for inflation is still fairly tame, about one to 2%. the economy itself, they still see -- there is going to be a risk to the economy. in singapore, they have a robust outlook for this year and next year. a lot of that depends on global trade in general. they are so interlinked to the global economy. it is slowly getting back. they are trying to get it back. they have a high vaccination rate. they're trying to ease restrictions.
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they are starting to ease travel as well. so people who have been here for a while can get in more labor from overseas and get things back to normal. as they are doing that, they want to make sure prices don't get added themselves as the global economy start coming back towards normal. david: great stuff. let's stay in southeast asia where we have the philippines sticking to its growth target this year. that is four to 5%. restrictions from covid being eased nationwide as case numbers fall. going to give the economy some breathing room. let's hear from the finance secretary who spoke exclusively to kathleen hays about that outlook. >> we are sticking to that growth target. we think we will hit it. we had 11.5% in the second quarter. >> what about inflation? it is a big worry around the
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world. it is it -- is it a worry? what is the government doing to make sure these high prices don't broaden out and prevent the expansion from broadening out as well? >> we have identified the source of our elevated inflation. we are a bit over target this year. we have identified the cost. the effects of the african swine fever are taking it's toll on our pork producers. what we have done is eased the quantity restrictions on the import of pork as well as lowered the tariffs. that has stopped pork prices from increasing. now we are facing increasing fuel prices. but our estimates are that are inflation targets will hold as
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long as fuel prices stay below $90 per barrel. >> so you are starting to issue retail dollar bonds. this is precedent-setting. that is part of the satisfaction. you expect it to become a substantial vehicle for financing the government? >> we decided to issue a retail dollar bond. we were quite surprised that we -- that the uptake was four times more than we were expecting. as you know, we have relied mostly on domestic finance for our financial needs. up to 75% of our barbary is done -- our borrowing is domestic. we decided to open the market for retail dollar bonds.
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we have a lot of foreign workers who hold dollars. the banks are giving the interest rates. we decided to give our small depositors a chance at buying retail dollar bonds. you can buy retail dollar bonds in small quantities like $300. and you can buy it on yourself i'm. >> i will have to look at myself i'm. in terms of overseas sales come are you planning any for early next year? >> we are looking at a possible issuance of bonds. we issued three very successful bonds this year. $3 billion in the u.s. market. we issued two and a half billion dollar equivalent in euros and around $500 million in the
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samurai market. now we are looking at the three items we look at always. what are the rates people are willing to take? what are the tenors? we want to stretch them further. and what is the exchange rate? rishaad: the finance secretary having an exclusive general -- exclusive chinwag with kathleen hays. you are with bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: david and i are back. let's have a look at the latest headlines. second quarter profits of $720 million. a 12% increase on the year before. raising the revenue outlook until the end of march of 2022. spending continues to grow as the pandemic forces more migration online. honda doubling down on the letters vehicles and china pledging all models introduced end of the country will be battery-powered by 2030. it will build two new factories
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in china starting in 2024. planning to introduce tender electric models. wanting to completely ditch combustion engines by 2040. sources telling us amazon.com is shopping for new long-range boeing 777x and cargo aircraft. more evidence of amazon's ambitions to move products. it would see amazon step up his revelry with the likes of ups and fedex. david: with get a brief look across the markets. sentiment is ok. considering the not just inflation reads we have from the u.s. and china but also the unexpected move out of singapore. it is only mainly market seeing pressure. couple of stocks we are tracking. we talked about tsmc.
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also set to report. those two stocks are the heaviest weighted. about to come up with gold prices. 2.6%. the dollar, a little bit of dollar strength as far as the yen is concerned. brent, 84 books. that takes us into the bone story. year two's all the way into your 30 plus. a little flutter compared to a couple days back. watch this closely. five intends are close now to recouping the highest levels going back to 2007. inflation conversation back in focus. we will see what happens. that is the market. opens in the next hour.
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we are at 60000 and 100. very near. we could see that soon. rishaad: we also have the thai open coming up. going to be looking at the baht. looking at economic data out of india itself. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide, in silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology with emily chang. ♪ emily: i am emily chang.

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