tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg October 13, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT
>> inflation that normally shows up later in a recovery, we are getting a blast of it early. >> you do have the sort of stagflation narrative. >> right now we are seeing narratives that are completely new to us. >> markets could be a little more fragile on disappointing news. >>'s growth going to slow next year? the answer to that is a resounding yes. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa
abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. from washington and the meetings of the imf and world bank, from new york and the meetings of jp morgan on conference calls, worldwide within inflation report this hour, a busy day. jonathan: and so far, so good. jp morgan doing ok. the imf predicting 5% gdp growth in america. it is about insufficient supply meeting that demand, and higher prices because of those things mixed gather. do those higher prices hit growth? tom: we forget the scale for the moment. jp morgan meeting on the upper end income line. these are giant companies. apple in the news, jp morgan in the news, and they survive this pandemic. jonathan: investment banking fees up by 52%. ipo activity good, and m&a
activity good. the banks are clearly picking up some these. tom: a little bit of transitory inflation worry. lisa, we will hear about inflation. every single person i ran into in the airport, on the airplane, started with inflation. lisa: this is what people feel in their day-to-day experience, whether it is going to the store in how much they pay freight a lot of milk, versus building a home, versus paying for gas. the question i have is are the biggest companies going to be the best qualified to be resilient through this period? it is something we have been talking about throughout the morning. jon pointed this out, jp morgan is expanding significantly. the big are getting bigger. how much is this going to be a feature of the economy going forward? it doesn't necessarily predict what is happening in some of the smaller companies. tom: i strongly take the point of the men opt in this -- of the
tendencies of jp morgan, they do it with an interest rate dynamic. both of us are looking at a yield regime today very different from 3, 4, 5 days ago. jonathan: this curve is flatter. the 10 year down a basis point to 1.56 47%. you can see it in the gilt market as well in the u.k. flatter curves, and this front end of story is not just a story of the belly of the curve anymore, about when the fed might hike, how quickly they will hike a few years down the line. we are talking about front end, twos, the conversation about next year for get that has been pulled forward in a way that wasn't in the mix. tom: part of the recovery from this pandemic, it is very different in other geographies. we spent a lot of time on australia yesterday. but at these meetings of the international monetary fund, not said is the missed call of last year. did you know the dollar was
going to be weaker? jonathan: and then what did we get? a stronger dollar through q1, and now we are seeing it again. because the fed, there's clearly a sensitivity to inflation. we thought they would really tolerate higher inflation, now you start to hear the likes of rough failed bostick of the atlanta fed calling transitory a dirty word -- of raphael bostic of the atlanta fed calling transitory a dirty word. i wonder if he gets more company in the months to come. tom: let's do the data right now. we mentioned yields hurting a little bit. green on the screen, and the vix nicely in under 20. jonathan: in the fx market, euro stronger, $1.1561, advancing 0.3%. we just about hold onto $80 on wti, down by 0.8% on the day. tom: we are going to sum it together. patrick armstrong has become one of our most nuanced and
interesting voices, with plurimi wealth. i had too many plurimis last night. plurimi wealth, their chief investment officer. we are setting up to get to the end of the year and frame 2022. in investment, how do you structure for next year? patrick: what i think the yield curve is getting wrong right now , and i see the yield curve is wrong because the bond market is smarter than the equity market, but i think the fed, some of them are changing their tune on whether inflation will be transitory. but i do think it is going to be a very high bar before we see hikes. i think that will lead to a steepening of the curve. you get to the point where there's going to be strong growth next year. unemployment is already below 5%, so that bar for hiking
rates, i think they have learned their lesson from 2018, and they're really not going to want to hike early. i do think they will let the economy run hot. inflation now is probably the wrong kind of inflation, with the logistical issues in the bottleneck issues, and monetary policy is impotent against that kind of inflation anyway. jonathan: if i am thinking about supply-side risk fading through next year, if i think about this conversation of higher interest rates, do i want to pivot away from the banks and back to industrials? industrials have lagged so far because of the supply-side issues. people think we are going to get higher rates. would you fade one and go back into the other? patrick: i think financials are going to be set for a very good 2022 because we are not going to get higher rates, but i think we are going to have a steepening of the yield curve.
i think inflationary pressures are going to remain. i think they will transition from supply driven to a relatively strong economy, where demand is continuing to grow. i think that is a healthier kind of inflation. if we do get wage growth, which i expect as well given the difficulties small companies are having and filling vacancies, that needs to higher costs. so i don't think banks are going to suffer because that steepening of the yield curve will be beneficial for them. lisa: it seems like you do think supply chain constraints are going to work themselves out sooner rather than later. this seems to be the big distinguishing feature in markets, the bulls and the bears. we saw a lack of reaction to the apple news yesterday, that perhaps some of the supply chain disruptions are fully priced. do you agree with that? have we fully priced for chip shortages and all of the delays we are seeing in shipments? patrick: the chip shortages have
to be fully priced. we have been talking about it for months now. no one is going to be surprised that apple is not able to get the chips. there probably will be issues may be on some of the consumer stocks, on manufacturing, covid related things like we saw with nike. maybe they haven't been headlined as clear as the chip issues, but it shouldn't shock anyone that there have been supply disruptions. the question is is that differing demand for one or three quarters down the line. maybe hard to say, but definitely a big chunk of it should be priced in by now. ritika: -- tom: daniel alpert, the gentleman of the age of oversupply, has just released a definitive white paper where he can players -- he compares to the inflation of the 1970's to inflation now. he says this is unique off of the pandemic. if we get subdued inflation, how
does that affect the stock market? patrick: if we get subdued inflation, we've got very accommodative monetary policy for a very long time. i think inflation is going to be stickier than people expect. i think we are in an environment now where the path of least resistance is higher prices. we have had a 30 year disinflationary backdrop based on globalization that i think has run its course now. clean energy is a higher cost structure. we had a lot of investments in fossil fuels and many aspects of production. you have seen low levels of investment and burgeoning demand, so i think prices will continue to move higher. it is a disinflationary brought drop -- it is the addition in -- it is the disinflationary backdrop that is probably over,
the pendulum swinging the other way now. jonathan: we've got to leave it there. thank you, patrick armstrong, plurimi wealth cio. cpi data 20 minutes away. this came from the federal reserve bank of new york inflation expectations survey yesterday. expectations, 5.3% from 5.2%. the reading for one year and three year consumer price expectations the highest in the survey's eight-year history. the question is, do they matter to policymakers? lisa: this is a heated debate on the federal reserve, as we saw from that white paper a couple of weeks ago. the idea being that perhaps they are predictive because people expect prices to rise, they are willing to spend more on goods now versus not necessarily being indicative. nonetheless, that is exact a what i was singing about as we were listening to much of the previous conversation. to me, this is a key question. is this persistent, and can it be good persistent rather than just something that takes growth
away? jonathan: consumer price expectations higher. put this together with the data we got yesterday. job openings fell back a little bit. take a look at the quick rate that rose to a record, just short of 3%. that is some real pickup that you've got to take notice of. people willing to quit their jobs because there is some confidence out there. you only quit your job if you feel confident you can get by and perhaps get another one. tom: it is a confidence of 4% gdp. i understand there's 47 decisions on glide paths, but the real glide path here is we are not in the boom economy of 12 months ago, but it is still a pandemic affected good economy. where will it be in a year? who knows? jonathan: you are unhappy with who you are working with. [laughter] plenty of other reasons. in the s&p come up 0.2%. good morning. on radio, on tv, this is
bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. the dealmakers at j.p. morgan chase posted their best quarter yet. fees from advising on deals almost tripled in the third quarter. that crushed analyst estimates and helped push j.p. morgan's net income to $11.7 billion. ceo jamie dimon says the bank has weathered supply chain disruptions well. on capitol hill, the house has approved a short-term increase in the government debt limit. lawmakers are sending the legislation to president biden just days before the treasury was at risk for running out of borrowing authority. there is likely to be another partisan confrontation over spending and debt in less than two months. opec is sounding a cautious note on the strength of oil demand, despite international crude prices surging above $80 a barrel for the first time in several years. opec has revised down estimates
for global oil consumption. this year, the cartel says the spike in natural gas prices could boost petroleum use in some areas, but hurt it in others, like refining cutting is 50% of customs protections for northern ireland and up to 80% of checks on food imports. the agreement keeps northern ireland in the civil market, as opposed to the rest -- the single market, as opposed to the rest of the u.k. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> the substantial further progress standard has been more than met, and as of the september meeting, has been met with regard to our employment mandate. expect progress to continue. a tapering and purchases might soon be warranted. jonathan: a green light on them or third for fed tapering. that was vice chair richard clarida -- on november 3 for fed tapering. that was vice chair richard clarida. yields are lower by a basis point at 1.561 2%. crude softer, down to $80.10. we've heard from jamie dimon a couple of times this week. we hear from him again this morning following earnings on the supply side story. "a good chance in a year, we won't be talking about supply chains anymore." they maybe will have moved on. tom: i would say that has some
merit because of the worldwide context he must have an understanding what is going on in shanghai or singapore or others. i don't take that likely. jonathan: i don't either, but when you speak to specific industries, specific companies, they talk about these companies going on maybe through 2022. tom: certainly through the holiday season. we have already gone into full-scale shopping at the keene household. one of the great moments of "bloomberg surveillance," jon ferro was there as well, was joseph stiglitz onset with us in davos. it was a transient moment in world bank imf history. we have joseph stiglitz with us from columbia university to sketch out the uproar in washington over data integrity. joe, i thought you covered so much ground in your project syndicate essay in your defense of the managing director of the
imf. the question seems to be if we are going to do data, trying to do data that is not politically tinged at these meetings, and these institutions that you worked out, if they become too political. joseph: there's always going to be a political element. the report that was the subject of all this controversy was the doing business report. that was a report that was always problematic. in fact, just a decade ago, i testified to congress about why that was a bad report and ought to be scrapped. they said that doing business meant, doing well in that meant treating your workers well -- not treating your workers well.
my view was progressive taxation, finances, infrastructure, on this occasion makes for a stronger economy. so you are right, make sure that by its very nature, it is not a political database. tom: do you believe that dr. georgieva or whoever follows on from david malpass at the world bank, will they be tinged by this? does she have too much baggage now to do her job for the remaining three years? joseph: absolutely not. in fact, if you look closely at what she did, she stood up for data integrity. what she said is we are not going to monkey with the methodology. she instructed her staff to make sure the data is right, do exactly what i would have done if i were in that position, and
it turned out that when they looked at the data, there were some rounding errors, they adjusted some things, and this whole controversy is about whether china was 83rd or 75th in the ranking area that difference is not statistically significant. it is basically a tie. what they said was our data confirmed what we said before. what they should have done was explained the lack of statistical significance in this difference between 75 and 83rd. lisa: there's a broader story of increasing politicization of central bankers in general, of some of the financial authorities around the world. i thing about this with the federal reserve in particular, randy quarles stepping down as the vice chair of supervision. how much does this week and the role of the likes of the federal reserve at a time when there are more pivotal than ever to markets.
joseph: you cannot remove our regulatory authority from the political context. we had a crisis in 2008. some people seem to have forgotten that. one side of our political spectrum says it didn't occur, and we ought to deregulate. the other side says 2008 actually occurred, it occurred because we did not have regulation, and we need to maintain a strong regulatory framework. that has become political, but it is also the essence of economics. the same thing goes for climate change. climate risk is a financial risk. countries all over the world have recognized it. but in the united states, we seem not to have fully taken this on board. i am very concerned for the chairman of the federal reserve that has not taken aboard the real risks associated with climate change to our financial
system, to our banking system. jonathan: what do you say to the accusation that your own thoughts might be shaped by your own politics? i am reading the project syndicate piece. you defend the managing director of the imf, but raise issues with the world bank president david malpass, by the former administration. you are now going to the chairman of the chairman of the federal reserve, and unaided -- federal reserve, nominated by republicans. joseph: obviously, the issues we are talking about, regulation, climate change, are issues i feel very deeply about, but they are also economic issues. in the case of david malpass, bloomberg itself exposed the attempt of david malpass to interfere with the methodology that was used in the doing business report, a far graver
concern than telling your staff to make sure the numbers are right. and yet it is so strange that there has been no discussion about that intervention in the methodology, a far graver concern than what she did which is trying to maintain the integrity of the data given the methodology. jonathan: professor, thank you for your contribution this morning. joe stiglitz, the columbia university professor and nobel laureate in economics. good morning. tom keene over and washington, d.c. for the imf world bank meetings. it was me in new york -- here with me in new york, lisa abramowicz. in the bond market, treasury yields lower by a basis point on tens to about 1.566 4%. euro-dollar, $1.1559.
jonathan: cbi in america is seconds away. from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market update points. we advance .2%. with your data, here is mike mckee. michael: these are not the inflation numbers jerome powell was looking for. cpi up .3% -- up more than .3%. at this point it is a .4% gain. .3% in august. over the last 12 months the all items index is up 5.4% before seasonal adjustment. food and shelter rose,
contributing more than half of the all items index, the decks for food at home up 1.2% on the month. as for the cpi core, we are coming in at .2% gain, which was what was anticipated. it does not change the court rate, it stays at .4%. we are getting more inflation. it is not going away but it is showing up in the headline numbers more than the core numbers. jonathan: i want to get through the market action, up 10 on the s&p, positive .2%. pretty choppy. 30's are still firm, yields lower by two basis points. the lift in the front end, we are up about two basis points, 35 basis points or so.
the five-year up a couple of basis points. euro-dollar, 1.1556. up .2%. mike mckee, your thoughts on what this changes and will not change for the federal reserve conversation november 3? michael: it does not change a lot. as i titled the chart, the inflation numbers have more than met the fed's target. the fed will be on track, probably for its taper. it does not mean anything at this point in terms of a tightening. the fed is at pains to make sure the market understands that just because they start tapering they're not ready to start tightening. the numbers today might create an argument. you and neil dutta can get into that about whether the headline number is something the fed should react to or the core number. core number state where it is and could start to come back down.
gasoline was up 1.2%. in august it was up 2.8%. the oil price rise is not filtered into that headline number. that will come next month. tom: 3.27 dollars a gallon on aaa unleaded. whether it is topline or poor, 47 other flavors of inflation, it is an art unto itself. on this and on the american economy we welcome neil dutta, renaissance macro research head of u.s. economic research. we are addicted to 7%, 8% economic growth. omg, economic growth is coming down, but what permeates your growth, demand is pretty good. are we still in a boom economy? neil: absolutely. there's a lot of talk about
stagflation but what is going on is we have an inflationary boom. stagflation is when demand is slowing down and prices remain firm. one of the reasons why prices are firm is because demand is quite buoyant. that is true whether you look at ism. new orders are quite strong even though prices paid are still elevated. that is also true in the heart economic data. that is basically a rough -- for real gdp. that is alongside strong growth and prices. it is more like an inflationary boom. tom: at new york university they weaned you on microeconomics and the many ambiguities of the dynamics. for small businesses, for midsize businesses, even for apple computer, if things are good and you need to bid for
labor, what is the ambiguity of paying a higher wage? that is the cost of doing business, right? neil: we are seeing that. the bigger story is the labor market looks a lot tighter then you would think given the fact we are still 5 million or so jobs in the hall relative to where we were before the pandemic. i think it is a risk that labor supply is not reviving in the way many of us were expecting earlier this year. if that remains to be the case, i do not think it is the base case yet, but if that remains the case, the fed has a problem on its hands next year. lisa: i want to go there. the first thing i did when i saw a five point 4% annualized cpi consumer price rise, i looked at the real wages, and basically
they are negative. wages rose 4.6% in the month of september, that is not keeping pace with the price of gas, the price of housing, the price of so many other basic staples. at what point does this become concerning and present a real issue with the debt? neil: -- a real issue for the fed? neil: it is not about average hourly earnings yet. what matters is the sum product of jobs, hours, and hourly earnings. it is about how many people are working and how long they are working. that is what we call formulate the index of aggregate daily payrolls. that number is growing robustly even though we are still millions of dollars in the hole. if you look at that number, it rose 1.4% over the month in nominal terms. ex inflation is still a very healthy in real terms.
that is what drives consumer spending. it is not just what everyone is making every hour they are working, but how many people who are working and how long they are working. that informs the aggregate wages and salaries the labor market is producing. if you look at it that way it is still underpinning strong consumer spending growth. tom: to fold in the moment of this wednesday and to combine different stories we are facing, there is a colossal mystery and worry about how we unwind ourselves for this fiscal access. to a great optimist like you, how can we confident we get beyond the trillions of dollars of debt we have had to incur in this pandemic? neil: i think ultimately there are two ways to deal with that. it is either inflation or growth and it looks like we are having both. stronger economic growth will
help alleviate the debt service issues. that is how i think about it. i think the main policy risk is demand is not a problem, we have policies that are being set as if demand is the problem. that to me as the principal concern of the u.s. economic outlook. what it means is if we overdid it we will have to abruptly shift course in some point. i think for financial market participants, that means the fed may start later. that is what their guidance seems to suggest. once they start they will go more aggressively than the forwards imply. the post financial crisis was about them going sooner to go more slowly. i think the post-pandemic experience may be they start later, given their new framework.
lisa: i was looking at the two year yield it is going higher, the biggest mover on the cpi report, bringing forward the potential for a rate hike. you think markets are wrong? do you think this is follow the old playbook for the fed and not the new one? neil: i do think the fed reaction function is very much in flux. there may be some people at the fed who want to get going with rate hikes sometime in the middle of next year. are they going to be here next year? we know the biden administration will be able to pull the lever next year, which makes it in their political interest to pack the fed with people that have more dovish proclivities. they mailed -- they may well look at the economic data in a different light and hold the line on the front end of the yield curve more so than some of the people there right now.
if more dovish members rotate in, you could see a dovish bed in 2022. if that -- a more dovish bed in 2020 -- a more dovish fed in 2022. i do not see is a risk for 2022 but i think is a risk going forward. jonathan: what do we expect to hear from the administration on picks? we have a lot of open seats. neil: they have their hands full now with trying to pull the trigger on the bill back better program. i think the biden administration needs to corral some of these progressives to get that over the finish line before they essentially piss them off by nominating jay powell again. that is what will happen. he needs to use them for this before he abuses them on the fit. jonathan: neil dutta of renaissance macro follow the
inflation data in america. coming up in about 20 minutes we will catch up with erin browne of pimco alongside julian emanuel and tony dwyer on this earnings season as earnings get underway. tom: that is a hell of good lineup. stay in touch with that with where we are going, not only this week but into the end of october. i would point out that tony dwyer has a cardinal rule, if you do not see a recession, it is able market. jonathan: and the discussion of rate hikes, money market see the bank of england rate of 1% in december next year. that is not one hike, that is a few. interesting conversation starting to build in money markets. futures unchanged on the s&p. yields higher by couple of basis points. that is a turnaround. 1.5962. with tom keene in washington,
lisa and i holding the fort in new york city. earnings season underway. big banks tomorrow. on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: congressional democrats are still divided over how to -- president biden's economic agenda. there coming together over a taxing and planting -- taxing and spending plan of about $2 trillion but they cannot agree on which parts of the president's agenda to keep and how long to pay for them. next month the u.s. will relax coronavirus restrictions on its land borders with canada and mexico. that will allow the resumption of non-essential travel like tourism. the move comes up to the white house said it would start allowing airline passengers to enter the u.s. with proof of vaccination and a coronavirus test. vladimir putin says russia is
ready to supply as much natural gas as your needs. speaking at an energy forum in moscow, the russian leader said it was important to stabilize the markets. europe faces a gas crisis ahead of winter due to a surge in prices and a drop in reserves. the man who played star trek's captain kirk in the 1960's is set to become the oldest man to go into space. jeff bezos's robert -- rocket company will launch william shatner and three others to the encz of space. -- to the edge of space. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪
oil, gas, coal prices are a serious challenge for the global economic recovery, and as such those i would like to see lower than they are now. tom: fatih birol of the iea with comments on the energy market. we welcome all of you to an exceptionally important conversation. birol's iea put out a blistering four page executive summary which flat out says the distance from madrid to blast out is profound -- to glasgow is profound. with the it leads in the gathering and scotland in a matter of 26 days.
ellen wald joins us this morning. within the pandemic and 2019, madrid's ancient news. fatih birol talks about the stoppard income basile fossil fuels. -- the stoppard incumbent -- the stoppard -- the stubborn incumbency of fossil fuels. they will not go away, will they? ellen: we do not have other options at this point. the technology is not there for us to rely on renewables for the kind of energy needs our modern life requires. lisa:, chicken the big energy players play a leading role, considering the transition fundamentally threatens their business model? ellen: the transition fundamentally threatens their business model, except the transition still relies on
fossil fuels. one of the most interesting things that came out of this report which in some respects is not so useful is that we are just under investing in energy all over the place. there's is not enough investment in fossil fuels, not enough investment in renewables, not enough investment and other forms of energy like nuclear and other things in order to meet our growing demand. energy companies definitely play a role. they play a major role in research. they have incredible resources to research breakthroughs in energy. it is just as likely we could see a breakthrough in clean energy technology from a company like exxon then we could from a startup in silicon valley. i would not front those out -- i would not count those out. lisa: the question is where does the money come from.
should it come from the public sector and the private sector. if we have seen the price of oil declined to the degree it has, does this expedite the tradition -- the transition to greener technologies from a market perspective as long as the oil price is allowed to rise? ellen: that is a good question. the answer is if you do want to have an effective energy transition you need to have money coming from both the private sector and the public sector. the public sector can be helpful in things like infrastructure development. some types of incentives. at the same time we need to see money from the private sector. higher oil prices can lead to more investment. this is a cycle we see over and over. we saw in the 1980's when oil prices became very high in the 1970's, but a lot of that money oil companies put into developing more resources. we know the big energy companies
will put resources into natural gas and other types of renewables for clean energy technologies. it is not like that money is going into -- where will we see more of that? right now we are seeing money mostly being returned to shareholders. tom: i will lean on mark madison , one of the giants of climate change analysis. a wicked nerdy, wicked science discussion. we drift from davos to davos and are trying to get something done. what he and many others say come at the margin is it about the big players. it was the big player that has to get their act together? ellen: china. without a doubt. at this point china is
manufacturing a lot of the world steel and a lot of other really important products. it is doing it the absolute earliest way. if you want to look at global emissions, if we are looking at climate change and emissions on a global scale, china is the big emitter. western countries emit more per capita, but with the way we rely on china for so many of these key goods that we consume, we have to address china's methods of production. lisa: how optimistic are you we will not lose this fight? ellen: i am generally pretty optimistic and i think we are not going to lose the fight, we are not going to see catastrophe happened in the next 10 or 20 years. i think humanity is very resilient and we will develop new technologies. the new technologies will come. they are not here yet.
i believe in the ingenuity of the human race and the human mind that we will develop that clean energy technologies that can support our growing energy needs. tom: what is the goal in glasgow . what is the goal to make ellen wald happy with the meeting? ellen: what i would like to see is an acceptance and acknowledgment of the reality of the energy situation. i think that has really risen to the forefront now that we are seeing much higher energy prices in europe and asia, the potential to experience brownouts and blackouts or to have to cut back on consumption over the winter. i would like to see a recognition that this is the reality of the situation we are in. we need to make a decision. do we want to cut back on our power consumption and say you
might not supply continuous electricity to everyone in the developing world or the developed world if we want to pursue these ambitious clean and renewable energy goals. at the same time i would like to see in acknowledgment of what is going on in the developing world and the need to bring energy and electricity to these people. tom: nobody cares, all we want to know is when we get a new addition -- when will you put out a new book? ellen: we will see about that. it is definitely coming. tom: definitely coming. a movie target -- a moving target. ellen wald, definitive on saudi arabia and the atlantic council and their senior fellow as well. i was at paris, and all i can say is paris had a lot more common sense, where it was about tangible solutions by smaller players rather than what we do
about china? lisa: big questions, big ideas. a lot of senior officials thing we are not winning yet and we are concerned. tom: much more coming up. flat markets. futures off a little bit. the inflation statistic is important. tomorrow we look again at the banks. francisco blanche on oil at the 12:00 hour. this is bloomberg. ♪
this morning. your equity market a little bit softer, negative dennis: points. the countdown -- negative two points. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. earnings season is underway. >> earnings. >> earnings. >> earnings season. >> but start with what is happening. >> supply chain disruption. >> are companies going to eat these costs or will they be able to pass it along in terms of higher prices? >> which companies have pricing power. >>