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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 12, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT

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>> consumers now have an incentive to buy today rather than wait. >> we have seen a substantial repricing of both growth and inflation. >> the whole reflation recovery trade is still ahead of us. >> inflation eventually will come off. >> a taper is much more on autopilot. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.
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it is a tuesday before a wednesday, and we welcome all of you on radio, on television, to earnings season. it is upon us and it will adjust our economics, our finance and our investment, and the political landscape. jp morgan, we forget how big these things are. 260,000 employees. they coined $336 million in revenue per day. jonathan: and a massive capital return program in the mix as well. factor in higher rates. what does that mean? banks have really big-time. the kbw bank index up more than 10%. cpi tomorrow, retail sales on friday. a big theme has gripped investors coming into this earnings season. it is gross risk to the downside, inflation risk to the upside -- growth risk to the downside, inflation risk to the upside. tom: is it buy the rumor, sell the news, or buy the news, sell
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the rumor? jonathan: and how the policy maker response to it. the federal reserve decision november 3, before we get there, october 28, which is when we get apple numbers, the ecb meets. the bank of france governor out moments ago saying that some of the flexibility from the emergency bond buying program may need to stay. they may have to keep it. it might have to spill into subsequent years. that is important for the european bond market and perhaps risk assets beyond. tom: is the distinction hydrocarbons? is the distinction their natural gas and oil moment is so much worse? jonathan: they got a price pressure problem in europe i think worse than the u.s. does. the fixed income side really pushing that point on real yield over the last couple of weeks, that may be european margins are the ones most vulnerable to this
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building energy story and crude, and energy, in not gas. -- in gas. -- in not gas. tom: deutsche bank is resuming base metals trading in a growth push. it is timeless, isn't it? lisa: we will wait for more details on this specific story. where is the growth going to come from? is it going to come from consumer loan demand, from corporate loan demand? is it going to come from the trading activity which is still going absolutely bananas? this is the question i have looking at j.p. morgan earnings, especially with with spec to the fact that small business optimism has been fading on some of these supply chain disruptions. tom: i was once at the dorchester hotel for the lme conference, and they were arguing over banana futures. this is not hilarious, but it is
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timeless. we are leaving asia. asia picks up. we are going back to asia. here you have a major german bank saying we have got to get on board base metals. jonathan: this was what, eight years ago, when they left this particular business? now they are talking about going back into it. great reporting from sri natarajan on deutsche bank. i guess the good news for deutsche bank investors is we are no longer talking about trying to cut our way to growth. they are looking for sources of that growth now. maybe that is the upside to this story. tom: i would do a quote on aluminum, but i can't find it. save me. jonathan: go to metals, go to aluminum, is at the top. we are positive 3%. lisa: what is going on? he is saying aluminum, you are saying alumin-ium. jonathan: that's what we do. [laughter] tom: the vix comes in.
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it he cares. -- nobody cares. lisa: i care. tom: yes, you care. [laughter] jonathan: david riley from bluebay on the program saying there's more space for this one to correct higher. what does that mean for this market? tom: we will have to see. on aluminum, on the equity markets, alicia levine, bny mellon, joins us right now. this is really in the zeitgeist this morning. do you buy on the rumor of banks doing better, or sell on the news tomorrow? alicia: i think the market is set up for this particular quarter to be tilted more towards the reopening and cyclicals. i think here you buy the banks, but we have already had a huge move in energy and banks coming into the quarter. the key, as you have been talking about, is the loan book.
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we have seen anemic loan growth across the banks for the last few weeks. actually, for the last few quarters. when you think about it, households are so flush with cash, and businesses are flush with cash. so where is that demand for loans coming from? that is really the next leg of growth. i would say be long, be strong, but be faded a little bit because we have had strong moves here. i do think the quarter is going to be a higher yield for the quarter. i think we are set up for that. jonathan: set me up for next year, then. you are constructive next year. there's a distinction between the top you expect into year-end and what you're looking for through 2022. what is the difference? alicia: we have an issue here where we have to get through some thing of an air pocket. the supply chains turned out to be stickier than expected, inflation higher than expected,
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and growth came down faster than expected. if you look at the estimates, the estimates are actually rising for 2022 because the demand is still there. so this is still a supply shock. to the extent that this is still a supply shock and not a buyer's strike on the demand side, growth can be higher in 2022, and earnings also. what do we have to do to get there? we are sitting on a 100 a moving average. we are probably going lower from here. you can see how the markets closed for the last few days. we still have overhead on resistance, so we are probably going to have to test lower. however, i think earnings season is going to give us a really good clue of where we are going on some of these supply issues. so the two sectors we worry about are the industrials and retail because that is where the companies are not able to pass along price as easily, some of the reason why these have been
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stickier and not moving higher. if we get through earnings season with any comments such as in the last two weeks of september, we sought easing of these issues, then we are off to the races. but we have to hear it. lisa: if you do believe this will eventually pass and we will see stronger growth in 2022, do you buy those retail and industrial names when they selloff after reporting stickier than some people expected supply chain issues for this year, but perhaps not next? alicia: i would definitely buy because we are still constructive on the reopening and europe is behind us. more of a stagflation problem there, but on the tactical trade, the reopening's should work in europe as well, and you can do some trades in europe to add to the value tilt. overall, we don't think you should be tilted one way or the other in more of a barbell. everybody uses it, but the truth of the matter is this year, the market doesn't reward you for being overweight value or
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cyclicals. it really was a monthly or even quarterly story, and i think as we move into the second quarter of next year, those supply chain issues are going to lessen. commodity price spikes come down, and when that happens, you are going to see the flattening of the yield curve, and you are going to see increasing growth and a lowering of inflation. so you want to be prepared for that, but you have a short-term where inflation is moving higher as inflation expect haitians are moving higher. you have to get through it. we think by the second quarter, these supply issues will start to come down. again, commodity price spikes don't last. tom: if i wanted -- jonathan: if i wanted a call option on a better supply side story, what am i doing here? is it true industrials? where do i get that exposure? alicia: i would wait to get through earnings season because it could go either way. you need to hear some sort of
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language that they expect a better day one forward. but also, i would look at some of the growth sectors, and particular some more value areas of tech. in the end, we let companies that can earn through this, and not be such price takers. it is a stock picker's market, and that means you have to do the fundamental analysis of where the supply chains are and how companies can pass price on. i would look at growth sectors. i would look at companies that can earn through this. i would also add health care here as a bit of a defensive play if in fact we are not right. jonathan: alicia, we've got to run. sorry. producer gets in my ear and screams that we have got to go. almost bullied, aren't we? it is abuse. the story alicia levine is talking about i think is absolutely critical. the front page of every magazine right now is the everything
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shortage. i think there's some people out there itching to go the other way, to push back against being long supply chain issues and to get short. i am trying to work out what the call option is to do that on a better supply-side story through 2022. tom: it is the when of it as well. i want to go to jp morgan. if you take all their leverage up and add in equity, they are 6.2% of the american economy. jonathan: stocks doing ok as well. tom: we don't understand how big these super banks are. jonathan: we will get into that tomorrow morning. then we round out the week with goldman sachs at the back end of the week. from new york city this morning, good morning. love catching up with alicia. my apologies, alicia. tom: you were cruel. jonathan: some things out of my control. yields down a basis point on tens to 1.631%.
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-- 1.6031%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. in north korea, kim jong-un showed off a buried arsenal of missiles designed to frustrate u.s. defense systems. it was a rare display that appeared to be kim's latest effort to break the diplomatic stalemate over his nuclear program. he blamed the u.s. for creating regional tensions. the house is set to vote on a short-term increase to the government borrowing limit today. that whatever to the immediate threat of a catastrophic default , but it sets the stage for an even bigger showdown on debt and spending in less than two months. the international monetary fund will keep kristalina georgieva as it managing director. board investigated allegations that she improperly -- china's business climate. georgieva has denied any
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wrongdoing. an indication of a stronger they were market may lead the bank of england to raise interest rates. payrolls rose by a record 207,000 in september. meanwhile, job vacancies rose 1.2 million, also a record high. bitcoin is flirting with a run towards its all-time high. largest cryptocurrency will see that happen. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i million get. this is bloomberg. . -- i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it certainly could go to $90. in addition to everything else that is happening, people around the world, particularly in europe and china, are switching from some natural gas to oil, so suddenly you have this upward pressure on oil demand that wasn't in the forecast a month ago. jonathan: wonderful to hear from dan yergin there, the ihs markit chairman and so much more. can we call him a commodity historian? tom: yes. jonathan: absolutely. from new york city this morning, good morning. we advance eight points, up 0.2% on the s&p. nasdaq 100 futures advancing about 0.3%. yields up a basis point on tens to 1.5996%. to those who reached out, i was joking. the show is totally unscripted.
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, and i like each other -- tom and i like each other. lisa: did people actually think it was scrip did? -- was scripted? jonathan: some people just think we do what we are told. you can't make some of this up. you ok, tk? tom: you are in the room there. jonathan: we are in different rooms, tom. tom: on radio, it is stunning. jonathan: do you want to understand why you are separate from us all? tom: no one has explained it. [laughter] let me know when you figure that one out. this is one of our favorite people. we never talk to him because he is 12 hours away. mark cudmore is bloomberg's macro strategist, with a wonderful career on wall street and acuity about the markets. young cudmore in london, so we get to talk to him on a more frequent basis. i want to talk about what you
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see in singapore about the supply constraints, the boats in the harbor, and the ginormous distinction that are all of those boats coming up to japan. what is the singapore distinction? mark: first of all, and singapore, we get to see it in real time. we look out every day and there are all of these boats that aren't moving. things aren't being unloaded, and there are people on those boats not being allowed to get off. so you can see it very visually, but i guess we haven't been allowed to travel up until recently, so we haven't got to fly over the boats. at the supply chain is clearly a global issue. singapore is right at the center of this story, but it is not unique to asia. we are seeing it around the world. the supply chains might be starting in asia, but they are ending in europe, and it is still the largest consumer markets that are going to suffer from this story. tom: is southeast asia linked to china and the pacific rim? are they one in the same as we
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go into 2022 economically and in terms of markets? mark: i think markets, for most of markets in the last 20 or 30 years, it is the idea that u.s. is leading everything. as of about 15 years ago, there was china. for southeast asia, china is way more important than the u.s. nowadays, but they are both these kind of counterweights. so i think economically, china is even more important than the u.s. because china is the biggest writing partner for all of these countries. it has much faster growth than the u.s. up until this year, and maybe even this year. the u.s. is still a way bigger financial market. they are still driven by capital flows out of the u.s. you've got to pay attention to china for economics and pay attention to u.s. for trade flows. we watched china for economic data, but we care about the s&p 500 for financial flows. lisa: a lot of economists view
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supply chain disruptions and higher oil prices bleeding into the stagflation debate. given that backdrop, doesn't make sense to you that along with higher energy prices, along with higher consumer prices, we are getting higher 10-year gilts for the united states -- 10 year yields for the united states? mark: i don't buy into the stagflation theory, but i guess if we are going to go into stagflation, how continues be higher? it makes sense in the stagflation excitement this week. we are seeing two-year yields come back to life. i had to put some of the front end yield back in my markets monitor, which i took off about 15 months ago. i realized no central bank was going to hike rates, and i have forgotten to restore them. so i only have u.s. two-year yields there, and i it was quite excited when the cash market open caught up. finally, we get to trade the idea of when there will be a rate hike again in the u.s., and
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in the u.k. this is exciting for a macro pu nter like me to pay attention to the assets out there. the idea that front-end rates are going up, backend and yields are coming down, the front end of the curve ties into what is happening with the stagflation excitement at the moment. but medium-term, i don't think we are going to have stagflation. therefore, i would go back into curve steepeners at some point in the future. lisa: what gives you that confidence? mark: it comes down to that definition of what is stagflation. there was that great deutsche bank survey this week about different definitions of stagflation. to me, stagflation comes from the idea of stagnation. that implies growth pretty close to zero. goldman sachs cut their u.s. growth forecast from 5.6% -- or 5.7% to 5.6% for this year, 4.6% for next year. up until this year, that was an extraordinary level of u.s. growth. i have only been watching
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markets for the last five years. the u.s. basically never sees those gross levels -- those gross levels on a consistent basis. that is not stagflation. jonathan: you don't think we have worked through that story already? isn't that the issue? aren't we staring down the barrel of getting back to 1.5% and 2% pretty quickly? mark: i think we've got this weird bifurcation in the market. almost every economist you speak to think that inflation is transitory. they are adamant about it. you've got many real-world market per dispense out there. i met a bunch of traders and portfolio managers over the last few days, and the main thing they are all talking about is the jobs market. they are going for jobs with more pay, they can't hire people, they are losing people because the get outbid elsewhere. but as long as central bankers, who control the rules of the game, believes he transitory theory, that is a weird one to place. i don't think people are playing the persistent inflation there
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he, even though many people think the risk is higher. economists and central bankers have the upper hand, but that might change at some point. jonathan: you think about tilting may be in the other direction? mark: i think if you want to lean the other way in this trade, you are actually come ironically enough, even though we have been talking about inflation all year, the way to position against consensus is still to position for inflation to be persistent, for growth to hold up, for the demand side of inflation to take over for supply-side inflation. jonathan: go on, tk. tom: do you see a smart of next year with mark cudmore? jonathan: you know what i love about mark? the use of the word punter. i have not heard that in a while. i will have to explain that. do you want to make the trip down to davos in march? tom: we will go to singapore.
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jonathan: singapore, too. a global tour. have you got in trouble at home? you're constantly looking to go away. mark cudmore out of london. from new york city this morning, good morning. futures up 0.3% on the s&p. from new york city, on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪
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nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that?
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jonathan: live iron lady of ntb -- live on radio ntb -- and tv. it has been born pretty much of the session. unchanged. one third of 1% is a real lift. tom: off of the gloom of the night. jonathan: thank you. unchanged on tens. crude reverses. we are down one third of 1%. $80.28. the narration from you, tom, is really helpful.
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10:00 eastern time job openings in america, expected angelo bit closer to 11 million, really -- expected to inch a little bit closer to 11 million. tomorrow it is -- friday it is retail sales in america. tom: we dive into -- we do that with thomas porcelli on the linkage of labor to the economy. tom porcelli, which inflation series should our listeners and viewers pay attention to? tom p.: i do not think there is anyone. it is good to use all of the metrics that are out there. whether it is cpi, pce, i think they are all, that is how you get the mosaic of what is happening. they are constructed slightly different. as you and i have talked about over the years, i do like to break down inflation into two components, goods and services.
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i think you get a great sense from what is happening from an underlying perspective and as we all appreciate right now, goods prices are elevated, which has been the case for a number of months. the service part is very lax. in fairness we thought it would be turning up in earnest right around now. it is not for a host of reasons, not the least of which is delta got in the way of seeing the shift. we had long thought there would be a good spending shift away from goods to services. it is not materialized in large part because of delta. there are obviously other factors. their supply concerns in the service base. those of the right ways of thinking about inflation. tom:'s real estate a good or a service? tom p.: it will show up in services. it is the single biggest component of services in cpi.
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that is one area, we have been talking about this for months and months, you would see this floor underneath inflation because of real estate and all of the price gains we have seen that bleed into rentals. that would put a floor on inflation and it has been happening. that will take more time for that to start to feed through. it feeds into price gains we see from inflation perspective into the rental component. it is something that will persist for many months. lisa: how concerned are you about a high cpi print antelope retail print, leading into the stagflation debate in a bad way? tom p.: famous last words. i do not want to outright dismiss it but i sort of do. the stagflation part of the conversation is a tricky one.
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i believe the inflation part of it because we've been talking about more persistent inflation. it is the stag part i have a hard time with. the consumer is in fantastic shape. they are sitting on a mountain of cash. you can look at it through the lens of excess savings, through liquid assets, but on the same measure the consumer is looking in fine shape. my word of caution is defined stagflation. if you're just talking about growth going from 6% down to 3% or 4% which is what we expected next year, is that stagnating? i have a hard time with that part of this. lisa: that is all fair. you put aside the controversy over the world -- over the word and how it is being used. there is this conundrum. there is so much money to spend
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and yet consumer sentiment has been declining pretty steadily. this has raised concerns from danny blanchflower, who says this is one of the most predictive elements of recession. no one else is talking about recession. how much can you dismiss consumer sentiment, which seems to be on a downward trend? tom p.: what i would suggest, and you have better access to this than me, look at the languor confidence measure. it comes out on your bloomberg. bloomberg may have been involved with it at one point but i think they pushed it off to another company. when we talk about inflation measures, i think you can look at different confidence measures. when we look at the university of michigan, the university of michigan measure will be more influenced by things like prices. that is down much more. people are feeling the pinch of that. the measure is hanging in a bit better. it is also down a bit.
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that is more focused on labor. then we have something like the languor measure which is done well over the course of the last several weeks and months. it is which measure of confidence do you want to look at. they're all telling you a story of their is caution. prices are eroding some element of confidence. the consumers lack of ability to buy what they want because of lack of inventory, that is hurting. if you think about the labor backdrop, which is one of the key drivers from a confidence perspective, it continues to pull through pretty well. jonathan: the word stagflation is a massive distraction. tom p.: i agree. jonathan: you can easily disprove that it is not stagflation. market participants are focused on the bounds of risk around growth come around inflation,
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the upside risk to inflation and the downside risk to growth. my quest -- my question to you next year is how the balance of risks evolve as the year grows older next year. what are you looking for? tom p.: we are looking for slower growth. forget about these words, transitory or stagflation. all of these words are a distraction. what i would say is if your question is is growth going to slow next year, the answer is a resounding yes. you cannot maintain 6% growth. where we are going from and going to is critical to the conversation. if you will remain north of growth, which is what we expect -- i know there was some big downgrade, someone sent me a message on that. i did not care who downgrades, i want to know where it is was and where it is going to. we are looking at less than 4% growth. i do not know what more to say about that. tom: what about next year?
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does your vector move down to 4%? tom p.: we have not really moved our numbers that much. we are fine tuning your estimates, but we have not made wholesale adjustments. it is not like we are looking for some material slowing. i think it is hard to make the case. you have the consumer sitting on all of that cash, but you have to keep in mind if you look at the consumer balance sheet, it is in pristine shape. when people go knocking on the door of banks and look at the lone deposit ratio in the united states, it has collapsed. at some point people will go knocking on the doors. that is another leg of the conversation being missed with all of the noise of stagnation and transitory and all of other nonsense that could distract. jonathan hit the nail on the head. lisa: we are getting a number of
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analysts coming out downgrading the expectation that we are hearing the input data shows some of these disruptions have lasted longer. why has that not materially change your view? tom p.: we expected they would linger for longer. we had a pretty good call on this for a while. we've been saying these issues would linger for longer. we had it built into our numbers. we get that -- we never had to take down our numbers in any material way. tom: for those of you on radio, we have tom porcelli from the offices of rbc. jonathan: you and i are so on the same page. tom: this is the tom porcelli difference. this is the focus without the distraction of children and dogs. [laughter] tom p.: i am back in the office. it feels good to be here. tom: you did not bring the
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children or the dog with you? tom p.: i did not been my kids are very upset by this. the dog is making it worse. he looks a little down. no one is around all day to feed him. jonathan: has he cashed out that long nasdaq position? that is what matters [laughter] . [laughter] great to have that energy on the trading for in new york city with tom purcell he of rbc capital. tom: i do not have an opinion. i do what i will not say. jonathan: -- tom: for the people who say get back in the office they should bronze that interview. jonathan: a different kind of energy. it feels good. i like being in a packed stadium. lisa: i agree. that is my favorite part. i'm not going to give my opinion
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but you should frame that and understand the energy. my view is i am agnostic. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. agnostic, right. coming up on the open, monica dicenso. looking forward to that conversation later this morning. equity futures up a little more than a 10th of 1% on the s&p. nasdaq 100 futures advanced 131%. yields unchanged. a turnaround in the commodity market -- nasdaq 100 futures advanced one third of 1%. euro-dollar negative for little more than a 10th of 1%. the week begins tomorrow with j.p. morgan earnings kicking off earnings season. retail sales coming up on friday as we work our way through earnings on wall street. from new york on radio and on tv, this is bloomberg.
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leigh-ann: general motors says south korea's electronics has agreed to pay for the recall of chevy volt electric vehicles due to manufacturing defects in the battery modules and lg was the battery supplier. gm says the agreement will offset $2 billion in charges. in washington is that up to the house to avert the immediate threat of a catastrophic default . lawmakers are scheduled to vote on a short-term increase to the government's borrowing limit. it is good for less than two months and then congress faces a bigger slow down between debt and spending. west texas intermediate futures were little changed. there expectations that a power crisis from asia to europe will lift demand and the opec-plus alliance caution is adding to the upward price pressure. here in the u.k., parliamentary
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report has found that boris johnson's government made serious mistakes in the early handling of the pandemic. lawmakers say imposing a full lockdown more quickly would have saved lives. a spokesman says the government never shied away from taking quick and decisive action. the coach of the national football league las vegas later's has quit. he stepped down hours after the new york times reported he made, phobic and misogynistic remarks in emails following an earlier report he used racist language about the players union leader. he won a super bowl with tampa bay and return to coaching in 2018 with the raiders. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i personally think bitcoin is
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worthless. i don't care. it makes no difference to me. our clients are adults, they disagree. that is what makes markets. if they want have access to bitcoin, we can give them as clean access. tom: jamie dimon, he will be busy tomorrow. full coverage of j.p. morgan earnings, reporters call and an actual call. really looking forward to kicking off earnings season. right now we go back to the bitcoin discussion. we spent a lot of time talking about the regulation of it and what we will do with it in the transparency jamie dimon talks about. barry ritholtz joins with years and years of experience. he was at the back end of the two look mania in the 17th century. his bitcoin like the tulip
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mania? lori: i like to think -- barry: i like to think of bitcoin as a specific company. it is a microsoft run amazon. it has a narrative behind it. it has been for detractors and that is how it became worth $1 trillion and gave a lot of thataway and out as backup in that neighborhood. are there many bubbles, are there many pockets of excessive speculation in this market? yes. that is what happens when there is a ton of capital sloshing around. everyone keeps saying where this is 1999-2000. i think we are more 1996, 1997. we are lot -- we are not in the ninth inning but there's a lot of speculative excess out there. tom: when i look at bitcoin, i hear from the detractors there
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will be a point when the adult show up. the idea it will be a taxation authority or an sec type authority in a major country. do you think that will happen? barry: i presume that is a possibility or a probability. the whole concept that bitcoin is decentralized finance with no government controls and no taxing authority intervention, that is a key driver of this. that is why this has been so effective for rogue regimes like north korea and ransomware. at a certain point those problems become so large that the odds of the u.s. government or the eu or some other central authority stepping in and saying we have had enough of this nonsense, that will put a cap on how far bitcoin can go. lisa: there is the bitcoin
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debate and the value of it. jamie dimon was weighing in on that. he was also weighing in on clients who want to trade bitcoin. it raises the bigger issue of where banks will get growth. we also heard about deutsche bank expanding into trading base metals eight years after exiting that business. do you think banks at this place are a good buy and have the potential growth area, or is the sign they are going into bitcoin trading in going into base metals assigned they are limited in the number of areas they can go to truly grow? barry: there has been this issue with banks since the financial crisis and the implementation of dodd-frank and the volcker rule's. our banks fast-growing finance companies entitled to a high multiple or are they stodgy utilities that get a low growth but steady dividend multiple? i do not know the answer to that. if you can answer that question
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it will answer your question. i think the world has started to recognize that lower cost of capital, lower infrastructure costs, and high scalability is where the big money will be. that defines technology and software. there has been a lot of focus in that space. banks feel like they have been left behind by the growth investors. as you know, value has not done well the past decade. lisa: that is the issue. how they convinced have some issue other than the yield curve. we see this as we deal with the jp morgan kickoff. how important is it to you see the growth in lending and the growth in some areas that have been lagging behind due to the cash infusions in the economy? barry: this will be an interesting quarter for earnings across the board. it will be an asterix quarter
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because there is no doubt increasing expectations for earnings has been a key driver throughout 2021. look at the analyst estimates all year. they've crept up as the years have progressed. the analysts have been underestimating earnings and been behind the curve. the issue we will run into is how much of earnings are going to be somewhat compromised because we have supply chain issues, we have manufacturing issues. the banks have had a standard excuse, what you expect from us when the yield curve is this flat and rates are at zero? they are rooting for the fed to stop -- to start tapering, begin to normalize rates. banks do better when rates are higher so they have little bit of room. i do not mean for percent or 5% or 6%. 2.5 quarters would be a windfall for jp morgan and fantastic for bank of america. until we get there, they are
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having a hard time putting together a spring of earnings. that said, i would never want to bet against jamie dimon. he is the premier bank executive in america of this generation, and if anyone can squeeze out how discrete -- can figure out how to squeeze some growth without getting into the wells fargo problems, it is him. tom: barry ritholtz, thank you very much. we want to digress. we have interesting images. we have been going back and forth from the control room. we had an earthquake in crete. this is to the west. this is the canary islands. for those of you on radio, it is hawaii, but it is serious. i have witnessed off the water of hawaii that water flowing into the ocean. this is hawaii in spades. this is the la palma volcano in
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the canary islands. lisa, you want to weigh in on volcano physics? lisa: it looks like every cliche of a volcano i've ever seen. i will not add value because i do not know the physics of volcanoes, but you do not often see actual spewing lava coming up and rolling down the side of the mountain. tom: we see it now and i would say as an amateur this is hawaii on spade. there was a 6 point x earthquake. lisa: destructions of thousands of buildings. tom: the fragility of the buildings on that famous island. crete means we probably need a road trip. lisa: i cannot keep track of all of the road trips. let's reset ahead of the open.
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tom: john and i will carry your suitcase. lisa: looking forward to the markets. it is interesting yields have been as stable as they have today. tom: i agree. i will listen and watch g to go been at of the imf -- i will join her in washington thursday and friday. state with us. ♪
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this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards.
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jonathan: the week begins
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tomorrow. tomorrow we get inflation data. earnings season begins and then onto friday with retail sales. futures positive on the s&p, up a little more than .1%. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. rising prices jeopardizing earnings season. >> supply chain issues. >> it is a risk for everyone. >> there is no quick catch-up in terms of revenue. >> what will the supply shortage mean? >> our company is going to be forc

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