tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg October 11, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT
♪ >> covid is the enemy of everything, and it is absolutely the case in labor markets. >> it is still not back to the way it was pre-pandemic. >> the stagflationary environment, they are going to tolerate that higher degree of inflation. >> it is all about the hikes. i think the market has essentially priced in the start. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene,
jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. kailey leinz in for lisa abramowicz. the bond market is closed. abramowicz says i'm not coming to work. jonathan: but it is open in germany, open the u.k., and those bonds are lower, yields are higher. the u.k. joining the likes of new zealand, mexico, brazil, norway, hiking interest rates. tom: price down, yield up. along the way, there's got to be touch points. a german 10-year getting to zero is a huge deal in this 13 crisis. -- in this 13 year crisis. jonathan: can we talk about that $81, $82 handle on wti? we haven't talked about these numbers since the back end of
2014. tom: we have only come back to normal when you adjust for a lot of fancy mass, but i'm sorry, we had a rounded up $85 a barrel on brent crude an hour ago. when do we see $90 a barrel? jonathan: maybe soon. what does that mean politically speaking? the politics of $90, the politics of $100. we got to have a bigger conversation about that, tom. tom: as we dive into earnings season, kailey leinz, what do you see? kailey: it is oil, it is shipping costs. a lot of these retailers are going to be in pain, and it raises a question of the margin pressure as we head into the quarter. a lot of other companies, those in staples, for example, may have more difficulty passing those on and exercising that pricing power. tom: this is important. we are going to go to drew matus, always optimistic, but
what did you think about how jan hatzius framed the american consumer in his gdp markdown? jonathan: the back end of 2022 is where it is in that call from goldman. i wonder where it leaves this federal reserve and the conversation about rate hikes over at the fed. that is some deceleration on growth. where is inflation in the mix? what does that look like? tom: i was doing the math in my head while jan was going on about nominal gdp on 2% inflation back to normal, essentially. kailey: his whole point was that the consumer spending aspect of this is going to be delayed due to the delta variant, but that is coming back to the earnings conversation as well because consumers have to be tolerant of those price increases in order for them to work. some of that discretionary spending really comes into question. tom: the dow jones industrial
average down 100 points, 34,534. jonathan: he does that just to wind me up. the s&p down 0.5%. the nasdaq is where some of the pain is at the moment. in the bond market, you keep picking up the story in bunds. let's talk about it. we are having another look at zero on german tens. let's be clear, that could be seen as good news for a lot of people, that we get away from where we have been in germany for a long time, which is deeply negative through the bulk of this curve. tom: there's no question about it. those dynamics are there, and it is how the central banks react. i really wonder, with the compex politics lagarde has -- the complex politics lagarde has in frankfurt, it is more twisted in the fed. jonathan: the big one for the fed is november.
we all assume that they taper. next stop for the ecb is december, and there is debate about what replaces the pandemic emergency purchase program. i've got no idea. tom: i would think culturally and historically, we will have to see. nobel prizes, and a moment we will speak to one. right now we are honored by drew matus of metlife. years ago, drew matus made a shocking call in the gloom of a decade ago at an ok economy was ok for america. he nailed that call, and he joins us today on an ok american economy. explain how we prosper with just an ok economy. drew: well, if you want big growth, big inflation, that is what we have now. does anyone really feel good about it? the answer is, of course, no. as we look ahead, what we need to see is growth coming down a little bit. inflation would obviously be
better if it came down a little bit. but we also have to bear one thing in mind about inflation. it is the volatility that creates problems. you can have a higher level of inflation over a persistent period of time, and it is not going to be as disruptive as if you have a slightly lower level of inflation that goes up and down by a dramatic amount every period. the earlier one, the former one, it is easier to plan. it is less disruptive to hiring and less disruptive to investors. kailey: what was your take away from the higher jobs report in november? drew: my take away was it wouldn't sway the fed one way or the other. if you look at the headlines, the headline payroll number missed, and everyone was upset by that. but the details were great. if you look at the unemployment number dropping, it wasn't really great because the participation rate declined as well. so it was one of those cases
where the headlines were wrong, but the underlyings offset them. it was just a mess of a report. i think what it speaks to is there is a covid story going on, and expansion of government benefits story going on, and of course, there are a lot of delays and shortages in the economy, which i believe are beginning to show through in hiring trends. there's no point in hiring a worker if you are not sure the parts are going to show up at the factory. so it kind of creates a delay throughout the supply chain, where the factory is not going to hire the worker until they get the parts. the people making the parts aren't going to make more parts until they get the order from the factory, and they are not going to hire people. it creates this chain affect back through the economy that is really not a positive, and represents a real threat to growth. jonathan: let's talk about a positive, and it really is in the eye of the beholder. explain why you think higher interest rates can help, why they can be a good thing. drew: jonathan, you hit on my
favorite topic. zero rates at a policy level are incredibly distortive to economic activity. there has to be a price for risk. you have to get paid to save. if you are not being paid to save, it creates all kinds of distortions. i will give you one great example. people have talked about the low inflation environment we have been in for a long time. not if you are trying to retire. if you include retirement or some sort of payment into retirement plans as part of the inflationary basket of goods and services that someone is buying, that has become a lot more expensive because the yields have been so low that you can't actually assume you are going to get a decent return on your money for a long bubble of time, so then you have to save -- a long period of time, so then you have to save more. if you have a large cohort of
the population moving towards retirement, when interest rates go down in that environment, they have to save more and buy less, and it creates a downdraft on economic activity. jonathan: if there has been some intergenerational wealth transfer on the monetary policy side, can't we say the opposite on the fiscal side over the last several decades? don't those things cancel each other out? drew: i think we are talking about levels of scale. you can always kick the can even further down the road, and when we think about the environment that we are operating in the united states, we have a lot of people globally who want treasury securities and are willing to buy them. one other concern i have in the low rate environment, and when you about negative yields, things about this, negative yields represents people being extraordinarily aggressive in terms of risk.
no one, if they were going to buy a tenure security of any kind, would actually take a negative coupon unless they were planning on selling it on. if you have to hold it to maturity, those things would never price at negative yields because no one is going to take that. so what is really going on is that people are assuming they are going to become even more negative yielding, so they are basically making bets on how things are working. they are not actually buying because they like the security. jonathan: you and i have gone back and forth on it in the past. drew matus of metlife investment management. a headline from citi that would've been bigger six months ago, and maybe now the reality for many of you. citi says brent could hit $80 a barrel this winter. the reason it would have been up your headline is because now we are about six dollars short of that level at $84.32. tom: the game six months ago was
awfully lonely talking about $80 oil. i would give jeff currie credit at goldman sachs as well. but they change their way. why don't they go to $100 a barrel? i don't know. ed morse's approach is much more geopolitical then we get from someone like amrita sen. for him to go to $90 is more a persistent $90. jonathan: we've got morse come, blanche, currie. kailey: playing a little bit of a game of catch up as we are north of $80 on wti and brent. jonathan: your equity market down 20, negative zero point 5%. up next, one of the 2021 nobel prize for economics winners. we don't -- guido imbens joins
us next. this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. it is the end of an era in private equity. the billionaire cofounders of kkr, henry kravis and george roberts, are giving up their leadership roles. the to have dominated private equity for almost half a century. kkr's new co-chief executive officers will be joe bae and scott nuttall. economists at goldman sachs have cut their forecasts for u.s. growth this year and next. the bank blaming the delayed recovery in consumer spending. goldman expects 5% growth in 2021 and 4% next year. meanwhile, goldman also predicts the equity market will continue to rally. a report says investors will gain confidence that the current pace of inflation won't last. the international monetary fund's executive board will
deliberate today over the fate of its chief, kristalina georgieva. directors have spoken with her and the law firm that alleged improper actions in her previous job at the world bank. georgieva has denied any wrongdoing. the u.s. and european union plan to announce that at least 20 more countries will join the pledge to reduce emissions. canada and germany are among them. methane is one of the most powerful greenhouse gases. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪
jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. on tv, on radio, alongside tom keene and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa back with us tomorrow. on the s&p, down 0.4%. bond market closed in america, open in germany. we are -12. in the fx market, euro-dollar $1.1573. crude on wti just short of $82. you've won the nobel prize for economics, but you don't know. the phone rings. do you pick up the phone? tom: i don't know if you pick up the phone, but that is the great tradition, and maybe you miss it a few times. of the three men this morning, this is the mentor did the hard work at brown university.
guido imbens has been essential in econometrics. this is an award for labor and the choices a society makes in trying to figure out jobs and wages. discrete choice is the hallmark of your work. what are the modern choices we are making in labor in 2021? guido: thanks for having me. first off, it has been great sharing this with go -- with josh angrist and david card. they have been so fun to work with and have as colleagues. alan krueger, who has also worked in this area, all three of them have been working on this really important crisis.
having been there colleagues, that motivated me to look at all of the issues related to that crisis, to make it more credible and hopefully more useful for policymakers. tom: i look at the present work here, and the hallmark of this is to take david card and alan krueger over to econometrics and math over to the technology of amazon, target, and the rest, getting $16, $17, $18 an hour because they can't find labor. two where you sit, what does the marginal wage due to all of america, with amazon going out looking for the marginal employee? guido: at the moment, i think it is all very much in flux after
the pandemic, which has great effects on inequality. it has had such an equal impact on different parts such -- such inequal impacts on different parts of the labor market. i think the current administration is taking it very seriously. kailey: obviously your work focused on natural experiments, and the actual study of empirical data. as we talk about monetary policy and a federal reserve that wants to operate on actual, realized data versus expectations, is that something that can only really be done with hindsight bias? guido: no, i think a lot of things are very relevant for informing future policies. a lot of the literature has also
made inroads into macroe conomics. there's incredibly interesting work going on there. there is very interesting work trying to tease out correlation and causality. i think that is even more challenging than in the micro data that david, josh and i have looked at. tom: what is so important here, and i think we will do just one final question here as you go to your massive media day in celebration of this award, and the final question is we have a certitude about data. it is in our economics, and our academics. it is in wall street. it is in every thing to do with the financial media. you grew up in real doubt over certitude. are we too confident about our
data that we are trying to guess the future on? guido: i think that is an interesting question. that is something that occupies a lot of my thinking. i think recently, we have certainly erred on the side of too much faith in the models, so a lot of the methods we have been developing have been trying to get away from that, to make these methods more robust. but there's ongoing challenges in doing so. jonathan: before you run, did you miss the phone call? what time did they call? guido: i missed the first phone call. i got the second one. it has been a long day. i was sleeping well, and i wasn't expecting this. jonathan: there you go. as is often the way, sir, they miss the phone call.
congratulations, the 2021 nobel prize for economics winter. they always miss the call. that is what i always find funny about this. tom: they do, and there is a great tradition here. first of all, the tradition is you have to be alive to win the nobel prize, which is the emotion over the late alan krueger, but far more important is the idea of picking the theme. it is absolutely profound they have selected labor as the focus this year, given where the real wage is. this raging debate you and i deal with every day over is labor power and labor strength finally back, and all of that folding into our politics. jonathan: real world issues that are applicable today. that esoteric idea that you can't really apply to policy, i think it is important for doing something for where we are at right now. tom: we have shocking access to
these giants. it is something we have earned over the years. to give you an idea, david card, who won today, wrote a profound, sharp, critical review of blanchflower's iconic "the wage curve" of years ago. the conservative wing from stanford, as well as the late professor, it would be good to speak to secretary yellen about all of these people today. jonathan: i look forward to that. tom: i'm booking for you, jon. jonathan:jonathan: always thinking of the late, great alan krueger on a morning like this morn. good morning to his family, if they are listening or watching. equity futures down 16 on the s&p, -0.4%. from new york city this morning, with tom keene, i'm jonathan
jonathan: from york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. kailey leinz with us. lisa back tomorrow. earnings begin on wednesday. equities lower 16 points, down one third of 1%. yields higher on bunds by three basis points. foreign-exchange not doing much. $81.36, positive 2.6%. tom: we have to scope this out. people have a good idea of the 10 year yield from 1.12 up to 1.61. the german number is pre-much
foreign. the answer is it was massively negative and is almost back to zero. jonathan: getting back to zero and having another look. we did that earlier this year. we topped out on tens on treasuries. german bunds getting close to zero. interesting to see what that program at the ecb gets replaced with and what it does for this bond market. maybe more targeted at the periphery. tom: that is the european ballet, than there is the ballet on earnings. we have not touched on that. today we dive in with michael o'rourke. what do you expect? what is the expectation of wednesday for the next three weeks? michael: we will see a lot of what we have been seeing for the second half of this year. corporations talking about input
prices being high, you are seeing the margins getting squeezed, and overall is a lot of uncertainty about where the real trend of earnings is and where the real outlook is. jonathan: what is -- tom: what is the history of what we get wrong when we are in the spot? do we get wrong the income statement, do we get wrong revenues? what is the misstep you have your radar up on? michael: revenues are good. if you listen to companies they talk about business being strong. the most interesting aspect we have seen develop over the last three or four weeks is their customers have stopped ordering because they cannot get other component parts so they cannot build things, so now they stopped ordering for the future. in interest during -- an interesting story last week was advertisers have stopped advertising. the demand is there.
we are saying you cannot get the components or products to sell them. that becomes a supply chain distortion issue. jonathan: i want to know what to do with the banks. they have rallied so hard. we have jp morgan starting things on wednesday. friday, goldman. what you do with the banks now? michael: i'm still a big fan of the banks. we are still sitting here with his low interest rate environment where we are going to see higher interest rates in the future. i think that reflation/recovery trade is still ahead of us. we had about 50 years of massive growth outperformance. then about a year ago we saw the relationship bottom where values start to come back. then they hiccup of the past six months after you mentioned how treasury yields peter -- how treasury yields peaked as rates
came back in. the banks and other value trade components came off and underperformed growth. i think they're ready to outperform again. we will see when we get the bank numbers but i'm optimistic going forward. jonathan: did they do well on higher rates regardless of what is driving higher rates? michael: the fact that they have done very well, very flat yield curve environment where we start seeing meaningful steepening emerge, i'm excited to see that. before i came on we talked about policy. you had jan hatzius talking about the slow down to 2% within the next year. the long term fed funds target and the summary of economic projections, i thought it was higher than. going back to 2008, it is 2.5%.
we have not been at 2.5% since 2008. when you think about the yield curve steepening, it plays out well for the banks. kailey: did may play out well for the banks but what does that mean for growth stocks? michael: i think growth stocks have had an incredible run. they've been the drivers of this bull market. i think we are starting to see some cracks emerge that there are probably better places to put your money going forward. you look at this s&p 500, up 17% year to date. we started q4, there's a lot of uncertainty. these companies have driven the bull market. it is time for people to look elsewhere and be more defensive. if you want to be invested, i would shift towards those value names. kailey: does that include energy? the s&p 500 energy sector up 83%
but still lagging oil. michael: it does include energy. there are so many interesting dynamics because there is a political dynamic in the united states as far as the talk about energy and the debt. you are seeing some investors buy stocks and buy commodities because they're worried about the shortages we are seeing now. that scarcity value is making this sector more attractive. from a valuation perspective, relative to other parts of the market, energy does look good. whether it is energy, materials, you want to be in those spaces. tom: i want to focus on what jon ferro brought up, the massive ambiguities of rates and inflation grinding higher. i would suggest the media makes it a simple discussion. it is not. for people exposed to the stock market, list the ambiguities that can happen as we go to a
new rate regime. michael: new regime is such an important way to describe it. we have been in the current regime since 2008, where is a low interest rate environment. what investors have talked about is there is no alternative. lower rates, he could a higher premium -- you could pay a higher pe, now we are seeing this regime shift. when we talk about the 2013 taper tantrum, we talk about the 10 year yield to gets a lot of attention but the 10 year yield went from 1.5% to 3% in six months. we just moved about 1.5% here. what happens is now you have to take your multiple down. you have to look at the environment in the 70's and early 80's when the interest rates were high, you had very low multiples. that is the risk.
now if we see interest rates normalize, i would say we are talking about not policy tightening but policy firming, then you have to take your multiples down and that is what puts growth names that risk longer-term. i'm not talking about over the next month. i'm talking about the next five years. tom: this is the set for the next two days as we stagger to jp morgan. this goes to mike wilson. then there is dwyer, we will not talk about tony dwyer. it goes to lori calvasina, i know you have her coming up, all of the nuances lead from the massive ambiguities of what will happen. jonathan: lori likes the banks and will be talking about it all week. what i asked mike was do you like the banks on higher rates regardless of if it drives high rates. the move we saw at the start of
this year through the first quarter, that was on accelerating growth expectations. every single week it was upgrade after upgrade to the outlook to gdp in america. it is different this time around. we are seeing higher yields without a corresponding pickup in growth expectations. i'm joined understand if the bank trade still works in that environment? michael: i think it does. i think that rate move is important. it is an impressive year considering rates came back down. my move of the move back down in interest rates is chariman powell deciding despite the strong economic data, we had not made substantial firmer progress. that is what prompted the bond market to rally in pushing yields lower. i think that was a hiccup or a pullback but i think we are looking at that environment where we will see yields go higher.
we have this impressive rebound economy, but that is what happens after you have a massive contraction. we have had all of this fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus thrown at the economy. there is going to be a hangover going forward. that is a risk to every business, not just the banks. the fact that the banks perform so well in the past year in a flat yield environment or low yield environment is what impresses me to think that as we get towards a normal economy -- even as you talk about jan hatzius talking about the economy slowing down 2%, that is trend growth. that is the feds trend growth as well. that is where we are supposed to be. jonathan: good to catch up. michael o'rourke, jones trading chief strategist on the earnings season that is about to begin unofficially this wednesday with jp morgan. the banks always first. tom: it is the clarity of it. we know all of the banks are
different but there conference calls are different. i will suggest not just bank analyst but the street as a generalization will be on the edge of their seats from the j.p. morgan analyst call in the media call as well. interesting to see whether jamie dimon participates as people one to get a sense of their town, not even in q4 but into next year. jonathan: we have rallied hard into these earnings year to date and every last couple of weeks. kailey: sky high expectations and it raises the question, can the fundamental support that or are the banks that tied to the fundamentals. is a more about the macro story? if you have higher rates that will benefit the banks and everything else does not matter. jonathan: thank you for putting in shift and working hard. we appreciate it. kailey leinz, tom keene, jonathan ferro. lisa back with us tomorrow. top of the hour on bloomberg,
lori calvasina on this equity market run. this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: with the first word news, i am leigh-ann gerrans. the price of oil went over $81 a barrel today. west texas intermediate futures rose to the highest level in seven years. the global power crunch is boosting demand for oil ahead of the winter. the power crisis is also squeezing aluminum. the price jumped to the highest level since 2008. industry insiders show al you minium -- show aluminum is basically solid electricity. that is enough to run an average british home for more than three years. now chevron has set a goal of net zero emissions from its own
operations by the year 2050. the energy right -- the energy giant is responding to rising pressure to play a bigger role in the change to a low carbon future. it is the first time chevron has outlined a long-term strategic commitment. hong kong chief executive is defending coronavirus travel restrictions frustrating global businesses. in an interview with bloomberg, carrie lam signals the curves will stay in place for the foreseeable future, even while singapore allows more quarantine free travel. she says mainland chinese officials want hong kong to follow their own approach to wiping out the virus. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> the question is what happens as you going to 2022. that will be a more traditional cyclical slow down narrative, also with declines in inflation but we are not there yet and we will not be there for a few months. tom: jan hatzius with goldman sachs. kailey leinz and tom keene on a day of economics to celebrate the nobel prize winners. we are honored the professor from stanford university could join us. we talked to a nobel laureate and we talked to jan hatzius, let's talk to someone who has their thumb on the pulse of the american economy. we make light of it. the charge card companies led by mastercard, and i truly mean that, the mastercard economic institute, hyper-granular work on modern america. bricklin dwyer out of yale and
columbia joins the charge and we are thrilled he could join us. your work is incredibly important right now about the pulse of america. what does the mastercard work say about small business? bricklin: it is really fantastic, some of the analysis we have pulled out of this pandemic. we have seen small businesses underperform large by 10% during the crisis. businesses that closed during the crisis, small businesses were about three times more likely to stay closed then large. about one in four small businesses. a pretty significant impact as we talk about small business taking the brunt of the impact. it really was substantial. tom: they will and they must go digital. we see this in all of the cardboard boxes in the cardboard box shortages. does small business have the
ability to deliver the box in the last mile? bricklin: that is what a lot of small businesses have been trying to figure out. we have seen the rate of digital adoption increased substantially. we have seen the number triple in 2020 driven by the restaurant space, debt services, then retail. people are figuring out how to get their food online and figure out how to get there services. a lot of folks already have their stuff online. kailey: we were talking to don hobbs yes at goldman sachs. he downgraded his growth -- yen hobbs yes -- jan hatzius at goldman sachs. if consumers are not going to their local small businesses, how much damage does that do at this point in the recovery? bricklin: the trend in spending right now still has been very robust.
what jan is referring to is the sustainability of that spending into next year. fiscal stimulus starts to fade away and the organic need for business creation and wage growth needs to hold up the economy. that would be the test. thus far we have seen a strong pace of spending even as businesses have been reopening and people have been going back into those small businesses. that has been one of the key drivers of people spending right now. bricklin: people have -- kailey: people have had to be tolerant of price increases across the board because of the higher input costs. we talk about that on a large corporate america scale. how is main street and the local small businesses grappling with supply-side issues? bricklin: it is tough. if you are a bigger company in the u.s. today or in the world, you have a lot more buying power to get that product that you need. it makes it that much harder to drive sales for small businesses
today. that really is the crux of the challenges small businesses face for 2022. tom: a nobel prize in labor economics. we have been looking at the marginal wage. at mastercard we have amazon $17 or $18 an hour. do you do any research on the wage dynamics and the ability to get the marginal employee for small business? bricklin: absolutely. there's a lot of competition for the marginal employee today and trying to get that extra person at the counter, the extra person working to drive that creation. there also has been a tremendous amount of attraction for folks to work at small businesses if you look at the numbers of small businesses that were created in 2020, it was about 86% gain from 2019. there is a huge opportunity to
get involved in new businesses, new ideas that try to capture that digital economy as well as that mainstreet economy. tom: let's get in front of the news. what is the mastercard call on the holiday season? do not give me a lot of grinch stuff. bricklin: it is good. we have faith the season could bring a gain of 7.4% for the year. those are really good numbers. if the normal season is between 4% or 5% growth, we are seeing that strong holiday season into the end of the year. a lot of questions on the supply side, but consumers are spending and it is a healthy economy. tom: bricklin dwyer, important research with mastercard. legit research on the granularity of small business in america. edward morse is publishing a storm at citigroup. there is talk of copper. he resets were copper is right now.
kailey, i do not know the timeline. one year, two years, three years. his bull case for copper is 20% plus move. it is opaque to me, but nevertheless there is the bull case, much like oil to 100, copper right along. kailey: you are seeing in across the commodity complex with aluminum at a record, iron ore up over last month. with copper, this is a longer-term case because in the near term you are starting to hear more strategist talking about the potential downside for copper, given the fact that power shortages are impacting production and a lot of places in the country. in the near term it will be a lot bumpier for this metal in particular as we undergo a green transition. tom: i will go to the bull proxy , which is on pacific rim and asia. with copper, not that we are the
authorities, but it appears to be much more about demand out of china and the pacific rim. all of it is hinged on asia recovery. kailey: you also have to consider china is attempting to undergo a green condition. it wants to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. that has had an impact on iron ore. it has had to walk a lot of that back due to the supply shortages, the power crunch in particular telling oil producers forget about your annual quota, we just have to power this country in any way, shape, or form. it is an interesting conversation. tom: kailey, thank you for joining us. kailey: thank you for having me. the bond market is closed. tom: is columbus day and it is supposed to be quiet. it is not. we had a nobel economist.
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our audience worldwide, good morning. every futures -.2% on the s&p. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue. the beginning of the end of easy money. >> squarely on track for the fed to taper. >> close to peking. >> the field has been tilted too long to borrowers. >> inflation will run hotter and for longer. >>