tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg October 11, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT
a rate hike. governor andrew bailey warns of potentially damaging inflation. and hong kong's chief executive defends the city's stasis -- status as a financial hub as a covid risks choking growth. more on our exclusive interview this hour. what is your risk and reward? your risk is the stagflation narrative mounts. rate hikes might be something for next year but the tapir is probably going to be reaffirmed. and the energy crunch. to me, it encapsulates the essence of data. inflation surprises the highest -- inflation prices the highest ever. let's look at a quote, the personification of the day, the inflation surprises the highest
ever, the economic surprises have turned lower in the meantime. this toxic combination of ratcheting inflation expectations with a drop in the data is a bad signal for equities. the inflation narrative outpaces the growth narrative by the current margins paired this is -- margins. this is your risk. what stagflation might you get? 19 stephanie style -- 1970's or 1940's style? i want to show you the growth forecast. oil ratcheting above $80 per barrel. let's look at the risk radar, oil over $80 per barrel, on fire. what can happen there? special reserves in the u.s., could they be released? i knew something was up with the markets. look at sterling and dollar-yen.
yen at a two-year low purity interest rate differentials matter. that is why you see in on a two-year low relative to the dollar. 10 year paper, futures open, cash closed, 130.84. never let a reasonably good set of data go to waste at the fed. they need to show their mettle, they need to taper because the window is closing. headline figures were disappointing. juliette saly breaks the story down a little bit more in singapore. good morning. juliette: you mentioned a number of headwinds but we are seeing asian stocks rise for a third session and the weaker yen boosting japan, the nikkei helping the msci asia index gain.
also, the prime minister's reversal on the capital gains tax giving a boost as well. watching the hang seng, a smaller than expected fine for one player. also the beijing regulatory crackdown meaning a leg up. we continue to worry about contagion effects in the property sector. despite morgan stanley saying they think chinese property stocks are attractive. and you mentioned the goldman story on growth and they are worried about the semiconductor supply as well, weighing on the taiwanese market and south korea. many countries have been adopting very strict policies and asia. singapore and malaysia easing travel restrictions. travel -- airlines jumping to a june high. singapore announces 11 vaccinated travel lanes. air asia at a 20 month high. positively flowing through into a number of reopening plays,
including a casino and resort operator in singapore. manus: you know the instructions, dust off that passport, i feel a flight coming on. juliette: it is dusted. manus: it is ready for action. thank you very much, we will return in a moment. there is a narrative from the bank of england, to officials reinforcing the market bet that the u.k. rate hike might be imminent. andrew bailey is the governor, doubled down on a possible policy mood amid rising inflation risks. let's bring in daniel, tracking the story. a clear message from the governor and from saunders. is there anything that could delay the bank of england from hiking? daniel: sure, they could decide at the end of the day that the inflation we are talking about is going to slow the path of the economy significantly and you
are left with the choice -- do you tighten and risk of further slowdown and possibly have missed the transient nature of what is happening? or proceed, just because some officials have blocked themselves in with comments? some things could slow them down. having said that, when prominent central bankers make these kind of remarks, peddling can be tricky. there is definitely something happening. manus: absolutely. thank you very much. 56 rate hikes year to date, the most since 2011. it is more of a question of who pulls the trigger first in terms of g3. daniel, thank you very much, our bloomberg opinion columnist. let's pivot to asia and evergrande. more coupon payments due today but investors scouring the markets of signs of contagion. rebecca june wilkins is doing
that for us. what are investors looking for next? let's start with evergrande and then how the broader credit markets are faring. rebecca: sure, as you say, the $150 million worth of coupons on three dollar bonds today, and bondholders yet to receive payments on coupons from september so it is unlikely we will receive a payment. the other thing is advisors are discussing a potential contingency plan is evergrande continues to sell its assets and redirect funds essentially away from bondholders who are obviously trying to recoup as much as they possibly can. and the broader credit market, folks have been warning of contagion a long time and we are starting to see that. there has been a brutal selloff and china high-yield bonds and that market is dominated by real estate developers. we are also seeing refinancing risks for many of these firms rising, and because of that, we are seeing efforts by chinese
builders to avoid outright defaults. we are seeing more extension plans, distress exchanges, and it will create an opportunity for the firms that can't afford -- can afford to raise funds, they can buy back at a heavily discounted price. manus: let see with the flow of money looks like later today. rebecca, thank you very much. let's get back to juliette. she has your first word headlines. juliette: a president has been taking to hospital in a development that might slow negotiations after his closest ally suffered a shock defeat. he lost to a conservative alliance. he may play a key role in talks with the government. sidney emerging from more than three months of lockdown with restaurants and retailers allowed to open to fully vaccinated customers.
the state of new south wales had been one of the world's most prominent success stories in containing covid, before an outbreak of the delta variant in june. meanwhile, dr. anthony fauci is warning the country should not prematurely declare victory against the virus, saying infections remain too high to return to normal. the hong kong chief executive has defended the city's ultra strict covid zero approach while eggnog is -- acknowledging that travel could -- travel restrictions could hurt. >> i am concerned, and we are working very hard to resume normal travel in a gradual and orderly manner with mainline -- mainland china and overseas partners. juliette: a recent approach to
acquire arrival, at about 16.6 billion euros, but talks have stalled because the offer was thought to be too low. it is on -- unclear if negotiations will be revived. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: juliette, thank you very much. let's set out the key things to watch for the trading week ahead. the key european data. -- points, italy's industrial figures. key figures gather in washington virtually for the world bank annual meeting. and the u.s. celebrates columbus day, which means you got cash bond markets closed but futures trading with fairly good volume. cunning up, goldman sachs downgrades the forecast for the u.s. -- coming up, goldman sachs downgrades the forecast for the
.1% for this year. .4% next year. the blame goes for the delayed recovery in consumer spending and the fiscal slowdown for the change. jane fully is the head of fx strategy at a bank. the size of the changes are not magnificent in themselves, not shattering in themselves. let's set the stage. a weaker than expected figure, a downgrade on the growth outlook, does it shake in any way the dollar narrative, leaning into taper? jane: i don't think it changes the dollar narrative because of the dollar is in a win-win situation. you've got the interest rate differential argument, if the fed is tapering. on the other hand, the dollar gains from safe haven. it does benefit. but it doesn't change the
dialogue for other aspects and adds into the stagflation dialogue and the growth of dialogue and i think that does alter the perception of where the world is going next year. manus: let's talk about stagflation, because a buddy of mine at one of the banks said are you going to get 1970's stagflation, are we going to get 1940's stagflation? i was standing on a sand dune in the middle of a desert and i did not have time to debate it. what kind of stagflation you think we will get and what are the consequences in the fx world? jane: i don't think i am going to compare it to the 1970's. hopefully we will not be in that situation, there are a lot of differences. at the same time, we are potentially in an environment where we will see growth not as firm as anticipated. for supply-side reasons in many
respects. but also the cost element, the fact that costs are coming through and this could be a draw on consumer pockets. we will not get the demand. this will be quite new, because if we look at what is happening this year, it is about supply. that exists. we have semiconductor shortages too, but maybe we won't get demand we anticipated. the u.k. is a shining example if you have -- where you have a lot of constraints coming at you it comes to demand. manus: absolutely and we are going to dig deeper into the u.k. in the next section, so i want to save my pounds, i want to save my cable and my euro sterling. the potential slowdown, the dollar is the win-win. you are looking at potentially a slowdown in china with inflation, a potential slower growth in the united states with a little inflation. when it comes to those other big
narratives, it is about energy and oil. we are in some kind of an energy redux crisis, i don't know quite what the right word is, maybe you can help me define it. do you believe the commodities currencies rally can indoor -- endure? does oil permeate the conversation? jane: it does, and it is interesting when it comes to emerging markets because all of the constraints you listed -- a stronger dollar, slowing u.s., slower china, higher energy costs -- these are particular concerns for em and those distinct from that are em that have an energy export component. those are the ones that stick out. what we will see i think is
going into next year, a distinction between the energy exporters and energy importers. and also perhaps even in g10. the aussie has been on the back foot for a variety of reasons but perhaps the liquid natural gas, coal exports give it a little bit of a lift. i think energy will remain at the fore of their mind for quite a while, i think. manus: the other debate is this -- we reflect on the jobs report on friday, the wages component a little higher, and many people saying this was reasonably good enough for the fed to taper. there is a cracking line from bank of america and what your interpretation, it is called the tale of the tape. the rate cuts since lehman, 56 this year, and that is the
most since 2011. qe is dissipating. i was shocked when i read that, 56 this year. is the risk narrative changing for 2022? we can talk about the daily ups and downs of dollar-yen and the dollar, but the risk landscape going into 2022, jane, how does that look to you from a rate hike, central banking narrative? jane: i think it has really altered. we see it is very much on the performance of the u.s. dollar. the first thing we need to clarify is we might talk about rate hikes but we have to put that in terms of normalization. we had a huge amount of extraordinary cuts and stimulus because of the pandemic and some of that is off the table. a majority of central bank's are still in a very accommodative
mode. we are talking about accommodations and we have to get that perspective. at the same time, and change the dynamics of the market. look at the dollar. last year, it was extremely soft because of the extra fed lines, the promise liquidity was there if anyone needed it. now we are talking about the potential of interest rate hikes from the fed next year, maybe not next year but in 2022. that changes the dynamics, and even though we are talking about normalization, there is a different dynamic for markets to consider and that is where monetary accommodation will not be quite as generous as before and that changes the landscape. manus: jane, stay with us. get your sterling hat on, i knew something was on when i changed a few durham -- dirhams to pounds last week. coming up, rate hikes could be on the table for the u.k. and
manus: it is "daybreak: europe." the bank of england, two officials moving toward the narrative of shifting the policy down. michael saunders and andrew bailey doubling down on the possibility of an imminent rate hike amid rising inflation risks. what does jane foley think the risk is of a november rate hike? not just one but two, the
governor and his friend doubling down on the rate hike narrative. how live is november for a rate hike from the bank of england? good morning. jane: good morning. it is very live. the comments are certainly out there and the money market is bracing itself for a potential move. this might just be a normalization, a small move, that there are plenty of reasons to be worried. we only need to look at the headlines, energy prices going up, that will be a massive tax if you like on consumer incomes. then we have 20 pounds a week that was removed from people in lowest incomes and we have a tax hike next april in the form of an insurance hike. the question is, can demand sustain if they hike interest rates in this period? manus: you have just help me -- helped me re-stack the shelf of
risk and headwinds and we are obsessed at the moment. sterling is on the move, your sterling is moving, cable moving more than dollar, but i look at euro sterling, and would you say there is a policy mistake or error if they went for a hike so soon to quell the inflation risk? jane: i think it could potentially be. if we are looking at a november move, certainly, but they may only move a few basis points, 10 or 15 basis, something like that. it is possible that could anchor inflation expectations and that could be the game the governors trying to play. we did see the mention that inflation expectations had gone higher and that could alter consumer behaviors. perhaps the trend, inflation expectations might be a small hike too, and they might not do something for some time, but for
the november policy meeting, the signals they give will be very important. there is a risk of danger if they go too much in the face of the headwinds we've been talking about, and it could be a policy mistake. manus: maybe it has weaponized the language, but don't draw your gun. i looked at the strip, all the way to next year, we will show it now. this trip has a pricing of 85 basis points december next year. -- the strip has a pricing of 85 basis points december next year. is that taking it too far? jane: i would say it would be. if we didn't have the energy crisis, if we did not know that energy prices for just about everybody in the u.k. might go up, significantly in the winter, it we didn't have the tax increase coming in april, would
say maybe not, but we do have all of these headwinds. to see interest rates go up at the same time is a significant concern. i will really be watching the consumer confidence data and business confidence data too in the next few months, but i fear that might be too much of a headwind atop all these other ones we've got as well. manus: i quite like the narrative that you set out, maybe five, possibly 10 basis, not the full monty so to speak, 25 basis points. we close off with white interest rates matter. dollar-yen, the yen at a two-year low, does ago -- does it go lower? jane: it really could. interest rate differentials are beginning to play -- pay out and we know the bank of japan is not going to move on rates for some time and that is coming through in the dollar-yen exchange rate
right now. manus: jane, the well, come back -- be well, come back. coming up, energy prices at multiyear highs. we will speak to our guests. this is bloomberg. ♪ baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware? nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that?
down on signals a rate hike could be imminent. governor andrew bailey warns of potentially damaging inflation. and the hong kong chief executive defends the city's status as a financial hub, but could covert curves choque growth -- covid curbs choque growth? what will the fed narrative be this week as all the speakers come out? will they reaffirm the jobs natures -- jobs numbers were good enough to taper? a quick/on what is going on -- a quick flash on what is going on in the markets. the goldman sachs cut, it is not staggering, but think about the price of a gallon of gas going into a car in the u.s., up by 50% this year, mortgages at 3%, just under. the constructs of the u.s.
consumer is changing. earnings, big week for u.s. banks. that will set the tone in terms of earnings on financials as you have a steepening yield curve. in europe, over $80, will the u.s. releasing special reserves provoke the saudis to do more? dollar-yen at a two-year low, jane foley says interest rate differentials are coming to bear on the yen. it is columbus day but you are seeing prices drop and yields rise as the belief that inflation is becoming a little more sticky. what is your medium term market risks? intermediate spike but not stagflation? the s&p 500 a little lower, early signs of the index is
focused on the headwinds rather than the upside. there is a fear of high prices that is likely to remain. it will be prominent this week and already in focus, attention turning to wednesday's cpi figures. the bank of england might be next in line to blink with policy members saying a rate hike might be necessary imminently. let's see what our guest makes of it all. good morning. i found a word i find difficult to pronounce but i find it fascinating. a fear of high prices. cpi is raging, energy is raging. are you suffering from this fear of high prices? good morning. >> good morning and thank you for having me on the show. let me keep it simple, really.
all of the talk of stagflation, is this really what we are going through? extremely high inflation and extremely weak economic conditions like the 1970's, for example? in the 1970's, we had very high and rising unemployment rates and we don't have that. we have unemployment falling, maybe at a slower pace than expected, but everywhere, including the u.s. with the latest jobs report. so that is different. and if you look at the market, it is barely different. if you look at the past century, the stagflation in the 1970's coincided with the lowest equity valuation, the highest levels in interest rates, while it is the opposite here. we have valuations very high, growth very high in some cases and interest rates rising close
to record lows. if it is a self-fulfilling spiral, i don't see that yet. the question is more how enduring the spike is. and we have a lot of -- coming through and they are slowing growth. there was pent up demand initially, and shortages compounded by the energy spike impacting a little bit. i don't think it requires a significant tightening and monetary policy, but it does require adjustment to prices over time, with the u.k. sooner than expected. manus: look, there is a lot to unpack there, so let's do it little bit by little bit. first of all to the u.s.,
because i just spoke to jane foley and she thought the bank might incrementally show strong language and a very small hike to regrasp the narrative in terms of inflation and expectations. must the fed continue as is consensus to start the taper in november, not miss the window of opportunity, perhaps to re-grasp and read anchor inflation expectations? daniele: yes, i think so. the question you need to ask yourself is is there anything in the macroeconomy that requires such loose financial conditions? the answer for me is no. the fed should announce formally to begin tapering, to scale back purchases, and at least a year from now, it should lead to interest rates.
we are tightening in the markets, tightening economic conditions, not anymore, and they should begin to scale back. manus: if the taper begins in november as we expect and the consents is around 10 billion per month, where do you see this next cycle of rates, where do you see the next set of terminal rates being in the u.s.? what can the u.s. economy tolerate? goldman already concerned about the level of growth and consumer pressure we have. where do you see terminal rates in this next evolution of u.s. rates? daniele: i think we need to go step-by-step, and actually i don't think this is necessarily a new cycle. we have the shock, the covid upgrade, the lockdowns sort of interrupted the cycle, and now
we are starting over, but if this was a new cycle, the level of the unemployment rate would be really, really low compared to past cycles, in example. i think we are starting from a situation where real rates are extremely negative, also because of the inflation spike but also because of nominal interest rates. we could certainly get to a situation where you have a 2%-ish level over time. if the fed begins before year end at a pace of 50 billion per month into the middle of the year, you could have the first high toward the end of 2022, -- first hike toward the end of 2022, and two and three the year after. i would think the economy and capital maker -- capital markets could cope with that. manus: we started the discussion
and i am curious to get your input on it -- andrew bailey along with saunders talking about the potential for short shock action from the bank of england. what do you think the timeline is for action from the bank of england? do you think november is live, and what size or scale of potential hike might they do to re-anchor the u.k. side of things? daniele: so, i suppose first of all, my perception is that it is a little more difficult to place because we had global shocks -- covid, supply bottlenecks -- we've also had regional specific u.k. shocks such as brexit compounding the supply chain bottlenecks. think about the spike in gas prices, a lot more pronounced in the u.k. than elsewhere. that is the first point. secondly, also the latest great
-- was a small, just 15 basis points. so i would think it would be a sensible strategy if they go a bit earlier than expected, to get back to not going 25% bankrate. when it comes is an open question. whether they can do that soon as opposed to the earlier part of next year depends on how the energy shock, gas prices, oil prices, they are like a tax increase on the consumer. because of that, i think the bank of england would not be able to raise rates that much anyway. they would not be in a position of strength, but beginning to normalize very gradually with
such a small interest rate increase, simply getting back to where they were prior to the latest cut. manus: always grant -- great to get your input. there are a lot of headwinds coming toward the average u.k. consumer in the next six months. take you for joining us. coming up on the show, duty-bound, carrie lam defense the covid curves in hong kong come even as singapore starts to reopen. more from our bloomberg interview. this is bloomberg. ♪
manus: it is "daybreak: europe." the hong kong chief executive carrie lam defended the covid-19 travel restrictions that frustrated global businesses, signaling curbs will stay in place for the immediate future, and she's dressed that even a single fatality from covid-19 would cause major concern in society. >> the mainland perspective is the practices adopted in hong kong should be as aligned as possible with mainland practices. they also excepted we are operating under a very different regime. so the discussions between the two sides are meant to find a way forward that respecting the differences in the systems between the two places that could be assurance that we will not be the weak link in terms of covid-19 control. >> for hong kong to remain an
international financial hub, it has to be open not just to china but the rest of the world. are you concerned your competitiveness will be impacted? singapore is opening up and there is great competition between the two cities. might hong kong lose its competitiveness? ms. lam: of course i am concerned and we are working very hard to resume normal travel in a gradual and orderly manner with mainland china and overseas places, but as the chief executive in hong kong, i am duty-bound to protect my people, so any fatality or increasing in fatalities will cause a major concern in society. in dealing with the public health crisis, we have a lot of factors to take into account. it cannot be just a single factor of a financial center. coming back to financial center, i think bloomberg knows better
than everybody the we are doing very well. haslinda: the worries for international investors, lots of speculations about whether this is on the back burner or debt. talk to us about what is happening with the law. ms. lam: first of all, the anti-sanctions law is a piece of national legislation. there is a mechanism of four national legislation to be applied to hong kong by an act of inclusion by the committee. secondly, nobody could dispute the extension of the slot to hong kong if needed because this whole round of sanctions by the united states rose out of hong kong. ims sanction -- i am a
sanctioned officer. i am still being sanctions. if hong kong is put in that situation, of course we will follow the central authority's direction to implement any anti-sanctions measures. the most important point is i have been given to understand the anti-sanctions law at a national level is a toolbox. and extending a toolbox to the hong kong special ministry, the special -- the government will take account of hong kong's unique status, especially as an international financial center. the final point is i have no timetable. manus: hong kong's chief executive there, carrie lam speaking to haslinda amin. let's get the first word news from juliette saly in singapore. juliette: sidney emerging from more than three months of lockdown with restaurants, gyms and retailers allowed to open to fully vaccinated customers.
the state of new south wales had been one of the most prominent success stories in containing covid before it tried to fight an outbreak of the delta variant in june. dr. fauci is warning the u.s. should not prematurely declare victory against a virus, saying infections are too high to return to normal. the czechoslovakian president has been taken to the hospital, which could slow negotiated -- negotiations. his opponent lost the election to a conservative alliance. he could take part in talks to form a new government. austria's new chancellor will be sworn in today, a close ally of the departing conservative leader. a career diplomat takes over after the current leader resigned on saturday. many key allies will remain in government as he tries to clear himself of criminal charges in at least two separate
investigations. nissan will spend more than $1.2 billion on technology upgrades to make global factories greener, and ready to produce ev's. it spent the last two years revamping a plant north of tokyo. other nissan factories in japan and the u.s. will get similar treatment. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: thank you very much. coming up, natural gas prices continue to soar, stockpiles are low and oil surges over $80 per barrel. we will discuss the global energy crisis. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> taking emotion out of it completely, staying educated is very important. staying disciplined and patient, especially in an environment where we have volatility. unbelievable intraday. >> there is psychology around understanding what is out there, not fighting the market and being respectful of the market and what the market is telling you and being very cynical about every input and questioning every assumption, which can be tiring, but you have to do it. >> i think it takes discipline and an ability to disentangle, which i know sounds weird, but to disentangle the decision-making process from the day today. >> the insane volatility of
crypto, it helps me manage volatility by an order of magnitude. >> you take all crypto, all tokenization, everything related has gone to $2 trillion. everything we do day-to-day that people don't realize, yet the market is telling you it will be disrupted. >> there is an opportunity when there is excess volume, and we've seen that with a lot of these meme stocks. the retail engagement is unbelievable for us. i am big on an equal system. manus: traders around the world speaking to bloomberg on how they have had to adapt to life in the pandemic. you can read much more about that, it is the big take on the
bloomberg platforms. one market is quite literally on fire, oil up $80. we have a global crunch, will it fuel demand? natural gas the story in europe. asia stockpiles low as we head into the northern hemisphere and winter prompting a switch to diesel and kerosene. joining me is dan. the sustainability of the price hike is what we are trying to understand. this is a tight market for a variety of reasons. will the tightness indoor -- en dure? dan: i think it will, with the one caveat that opec is still restricting supply quite a bit compared to what they were producing before the pandemic. they have the ability to open up the taps a little more if they wanted to and ease the tightness
but there's no indication they want to. many of these countries have been dealing with low prices for a year and a half and i don't think they are in a huge rush to flood the market with supply. i don't think there is a ton of upside to them doing so. there is already 500,000 barrels per day of extra oil demand from power stations switching from natural gas -- switching to natural gas from diesel. but is not like they can solve the energy crisis in a year in china. there aren't enough fuel stations out there. opec will not be the solution for the energy crisis. i don't think they are going to see a huge need to push to open up a ton of supply, which should support prices. manus: but that is not really the essence of why people are talking about the americas
perhaps drawing on the strategic petroleum reserve, adding oil to the market, which quells the frenzy in the market. this is about re-grasping a market narrative that has become quite frenzied and desperate. that is the point as to what opec's role is, not whether they will cure the energy prices -- crisis, isn't it? dan: the energy crisis isn't opec doing and they don't have the power to cure it. where the crisis starts from, it goes back several years and a lack of investment in upstream energy for a variety of reasons, mostly because of a low energy crisis a few years ago. it is a refrain opec had been supporting, to invest more in upstream energy, and low prices
could come back to bite people like this. manus: thank you so much, dan. joining me on the latest spike in the energy market. that's it from me. dani will be back from london tomorrow morning. the fed speak will turn into a fed frenzy as the week goes on. the european market open is next. have a good day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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