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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  October 8, 2021 1:30pm-2:01pm EDT

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amanda: welcome to bloomberg markets. alix: i am alix steel, infer matt miller. -- in for matt miller. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. jobs, jobs, jobs. we will have the full reaction in the september payroll report in the u.s., which was pointed to the downside is canada reported it recouped all pandemic losses. plus, we take a look at the unequal recovery in the labor market with william rogers, former director of the institute for economic equity at the federal reserve bank of st. louis. plus, we discuss the crisis made in the health care industry as hospitals struggle to find nurses. ceo of digital higher platform incredible health, iman abuzei. amanda: it has been a volatile session, partly because we did get job data, and the u.s. is disappointed, and a question on does it change trajectory doll all for the federal reserve?
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what we are seeing is nothing really has changed. there is still wage inflation and we see pockets of tightness out there, and relatively full employment. the tightness of the labor market remains when it shows up in wages, and that is something jay powell and company have mentioned. new highs today above $80 again from west texas. they have not been there since 2014, and that keeps energy as a pretty buoyant group across the markets and helping out, and our jobs helping, as well. that yield is notable. we saw that pop after wage inflation today, so we see recalibrating slightly on where folks think along and should be. or what it is worth, we have dual link job reports today and
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we have seen a big jump in jobs to recover the 3 million jobs lost to covid, adding jobs in september. that does not quite recapture all the jobs in the sense that some of the jobs lost were still gone, and we should have created about half a million more jobs if there had never been a pandemic do just economic growth and immigration. however, it is better news that we might have expected, and that chart paints a picture. are we back to the starting point to where we were with this pandemic began? alix: it could always be better, but here in the u.s., we have unique problems that are developing, and one of those in particular is labor force participation rate, lower, because people had higher wages and then people left the workforce, in particular, women, the theory is that when schools reopened, everything was going to be great and the women would
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go back to the workforce. that is not happening. something is wrong that we need to fix. we do not quite know where the dislocation is. maybe people have to feel better about covid being over question mark i don't know. that was a big one for me. amanda: there is a lot of uncertainty, but what is different this time and what we need to extrapolate, let's bring in chief economist with us to answer some questions, recently named director of the institute for economic equities at st. louis, thank you, for being with us, william rodgers. let's start with what alix is alluding to, the anomalies that we see. we have labor shortages and then we get the headline number that disappoints in the u.s. how do we square those things? william: we are one of those points in the economy where it is kind of an inflection point. are we going to moderate and in
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terms of job support and creation, seems to be where growth is the operative word, and it is much more tempered than what people expected. alix: how do we get women back to the workforce? where are they all? william: it is a combination of two things. one is that my colleague at the institute of policy reachers has said, it has been as she session and we have been doing the right things in first off trying to address the pandemic, now trying to address the issues around the delta variant. what do i mean by that? making sure that workplaces are safe. making sure schools can resume. and also making sure they can stay open. i think that is a big key here,
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that people's expectations have to readjust -- re-adjust that their children will be in school, and they can go out and look for jobs, and take these wages being offered. the other thing that is happening that showed up in this data is that for those who are not in the labor force, particularly about the increase over the last 12 months, by about 1.6 million americans who are not in the labor force in and they don't want a job here it we are trying to understand who these people are. our first round pass right now as it is competent to say they are 55 and above. it seems to be an equal split on men and women. the childcare piece i think is still very important. it is something we have to keep an ion. but i think -- keep an eye on. but i think looking up older workers and their choices is key right now. amanda: that is an interesting
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piece of this because there is a whole chunk of labor force made up of the 55 --. toluse -- 55 and up. toluse that, that would change sectors -- to lose that would change sectors. what or how do we add this up? william: for folks who are in that age group who have high school degree, they have probably been supported by various efforts and by some levels of government, and they are waiting to see as those resources are pulled away, a decline in labor forces is probably the story. for those who are higher educated and higher paying occupations with retirement resources, that could be an important story. in labor supply theory we teach our students, when you have
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labor income, that raises your reservation wage, the wage you need to be compensated in order for you to want to work. that could be going on. that is something we are looking at in this group intently right now. alix: what do you think companies do? because the lower paid jobs, the wages have been going up, there have been signing bonuses. i have anecdotal stories of restaurants that cannot open full-time because they cannot get the labor what they are trying to do to mitigate that. if that is not working, what do companies do? two they invest more in productivity and automation -- do they invest more in productivity and automation? william: it depends on the individual situation. some will increase wages. some will look to other forms of compensation. i know several companies i have heard and have been in contact with, they are talking about potentially providing relief on young millennials, so they're
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going have to be creative. we saw this summer with the national parks, they were overrun and they did not have enough staff. the typical way we address labor shortages are what people have been doing. the other issue that is also here is what we might call a skill shortage. if you take those who are unemployed, those who want a job, and they were offered it and they take it, and those who work part-time and went to work full-time, that is more than 18 million americans who are actively on tap and ready to go compared to the roughly 9 million to 10 million job openings. and then you have the lower film population ratios and they are doing what they have to do, but i think the other thing, what i call skill shortage is trying to address the challenges, the
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mental health issues people are facing, and it could be from depression but also the depression, where they have to refrain and where they will do their work, and how they will do their work. amanda: this skill shortage is something that we have looked at hard. you are describing a problem that has identified the groups the hardest. the vulnerable groups that are looking for work, they like to work, but they don't have the skills required, are you seeing the policies out there that will help address that? they cost money, they are not easy, but you can do it if they have the will. william: yes, i have seen them, those are the cares act, the aarp, and you have reconciliation bill, and
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structure bill, and are investments in what the united nations called human priorities, where human priorities are denoted as human capital, education, training, but also more importantly, social capital. that is investment in social safety nets, and incentives, investment in public health care , and if we do those, those have not only had the effects on one to two, based on one to three because you get a bigger bang for your buck. in particular, these are productivity enhancing investments where if we make those, we can help all americans, but especially those who get typically labeled as vulnerable. people with a high school degree, minorities, and these groups right now are recovering at the pace of the national
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path, but if we make it disproportionate enough, and that is why we talk about equity, if we make this proportionate investment individuals in the community, we will see greater productivity and economic growth. alix: thanks a lot. really great insight. william rodgers of the st. louis fed, thank you. breaking news, the fcc is in face -- is investigating for potential market manipulation. they are probing the collapse of the family office. they are scrutinizing trading activities and the size of bets on public companies, and that caused the massive volatility we saw in the likes of some of the names, and the liquidation we saw and the exposure to certain banks, as well. the positions were massive, and the sec is going to investigate for potential market manipulation. coming up, we discuss staffing shortages in the health-care industry with the ceo of incredible health. we will be joined by iman abuzei
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of incredible health, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: this is bloomberg markets. i am alix steel with amanda lang. in a statement by president biden, he said the global tax deal will have at least a minimum tax of 50% will help end the race to the bottom and help level the playing field for u.s. workers. a huge, huge significant moment for corporate taxes globally. we will give you any updates as they cross. back to the jobs number, september payrolls showed a decline of 38,000 jobs in nursing and residential
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care facilities, adding to the shortage weighing on hospitals. why? joining us is iman abuzeid, the cofounder and ceo of imagine health care why do you think we are seeing this declining health care workers? iman: great question. thanks for having me. health care is the biggest discrepancy in the number for workers. pandemics do not help, but the supply of health-care workers has not kept up with the demand. we are seeing some really big shortages. we are on track to be one million nurses short by 2024, and the reasons for that include not enough capacity at nursing schools, and not enough trainers and faculty to train more nurses. we are seeing shortages are not enough training programs for nurses, and a huge proportion of nurses choosing to retire, as well. amanda: how does your platform
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help? incredible health is a digital platform that aims to help match nurses with jobs. what do you do that is different and can help solve this problem? iman: we are the fastest growing career marketplace for health-care workers in the u.s. today. hospital and health care systems use our custom matching technology to higher nurses in 20 days or less. it normally takes 80 days or longer. we are working with over 500 hospitals across the country, including kaiser permanente, johns hopkins, stanford, and community hospitals. they are ultimately using our marketplace technology and our screening technology rapidly, up more rapidly, and more efficiently higher. alix: the demand is there. in terms of the supply, are there people that want to do it but there is not enough infrastructure to help them? iman: we are seeing it in a couple of areas. number one, nursing schools have
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long wait lists because there is not enough faculty. number two, there is a shortage after nursing school, so there are not enough hospitals and facilities willing to train nurses. and number three, we are seeing a bottleneck at the end of careers, where nurses are retiring over the next three years, 20% of nurses are expected to retire. the average age of an or nurse is 64 years old. amanda: training takes time. we want to fill the pipeline, and hopefully people will see these as careers they want to look to. retention is key. that piece of the puzzle you fill will likely be a big part of it. where do you see wages coming into this? how important is it going to be for those in the health care sector who think about what they are paying to keep the staff they already have? iman: great question. we launched our incredible health retention suite. that is because the nurses hired
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through incredible health have a 50% retention rate as opposed to traditional channels. what we have done is we have been able to expose to employers what are the different factors that are driving nurse hiring a nurse retention. for example, we include benchmarking data so employers are able to compare themselves to other hospitals on their hiring funnels and operations. in addition, incredible health retention suite includes many features to help nurses, including mental health teachers that help them combat fatigue and stress that comes with this role, especially during a pandemic. alix: is there anything the government can do to help, particularly on it comes to the bottleneck of the programs? iman: absolutely. there are significant government subsidies when it comes to the training of doctors. every sufficient residency program across the country has some sort of subsidy from the federal and state governments. i think we could certainly
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subsidize some training and the cost of the training using government dollars. amanda: so good to have you with us. we appreciate your time, iman abuzeid of incredible health, thank you. we are hearing from president biden on this historic occasion. 90% of the world's gdp represented by the countries that have signed on to this tax deal, a minimum tax agreement, president biden saying it levels the playing field for u.s. workers. and the deal helps and the race to the bottom for tax rates. earlier today, bloomberg caught up with former treasury secretary larry summers. larry: this is the most important global economic agreement of the 21st century so far. it is important in reality because it is going to fortify tax collections to corporations from companies all over the world. it is important in principle because instead of countries running a race to the bottom,
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with respect to taxing business income, they are now going to level up in a way that is going to be fairer and permit tax reductions on working people all over the world. ♪
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amanda: this is bloomberg markets. i am amanda lang alongside alix steel. time for stock of the hour. oshkosh has no problems getting orders, but lately filling them is another story. there shortage of parts, uding computer chips, causits fourth-quarter outlook. dave? dave: let's be clear, we are talking about their fiscal fourth-quarter, which just ended. it is a company that makes fire equipment, the luke perry vehicles, and, yes, they brought down their numbers in terms of what they expect to report from
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-- fire equipment, military vehicles, and, yes, they brought down their numbers in terms of what they expected to report. analysts were looking for an increase, and so was the company. it is not going to happen. instead, you are getting a decline for less than one dollar a share. among other things the company talked about, significance of supply chain and logistics disruptions. basically they cannot get the parts they wanted. as a result, labor inefficiencies were there. they are also facing higher material and freight costs. if you want to talk about materials, look at the price of aluminum, steel, or freight. you can see why this company would be having issues. on top of that, for their current quarter, they are looking at earnings being down from the previous quarter. analysts were not expecting that either. we throwing what is going on with computer chips. they are having to wait longer for deliveries, as is pretty
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much everyone else when you consider the average wait time is more than four months now. they are responding by raising prices, but they don't figure it will catch up to the cost side until the middle of next year. alix: but they are not alone. other companies are reporting the same kind of thing. i wonder if we are setting up for the same stock reactions into earnings. dave: we may well be. considering earnings for the s&p 500, this is something i highlighted in a chart yesterday, or the fifth quarter in a row, we saw analysts raising their earnings projections. that certainly is not in keeping with the trend. in fact, you are talking about the longest streak of increases since 2005, according to our data. analysts are getting more optimistic, and certainly they have had a lot to be optimistic about. the question is whether companies can deliver it in light of what is happening on the cost side of their business.
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and what oshkosh had to say really does point out the issue. alix: of course, that gives us optimism about the quarter ahead i guess. dave: optimism, perhaps. we will see. it is a matter of how well companies can deal with the issues in front of them because they are not going away anytime soon. oshkosh made it clear. amanda: we know we will get it from you, too, thank you. dave wilson, stocks editor. i am amanda lang, for alix steel, thanks for watching. ♪
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the comfortable way to work out. -that looks fun actually. -looks like a paisley. -hey, a paisley, we'll take it. -yeah. oh my god, i could do this and watch tv at the same time. -exactly! -fantastic. oh yeah, i can do this. this is easy. and definitely better than the floor. -it feels sexy. -it feels good. i want this in my house. (host) wondering if the aerotrainer is tough? (engine revving)
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>> president biden is celebrating as u.s. drug growth in september weekend to the
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slowest pace this year. pres. biden: this is based on a survey taken during the week of september 13, not today, september 13 when covid cases were averaging more than 150,000 per day. since then, we have seen daily cases fall by more than 1/3 and they are continuing to trend down. we are continuing to make progress. >> while the un-employment rate dropped to a pandemic low, that was partly because thousands left the labor force and gave up looking for jobs. more than 130 countries have agreed to sweeping changes to how much multinational companies are taxed. under the agreement announced today, countries would enact a minimum global corporate tax of 15% on the biggest companies.
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