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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  October 8, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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>> good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. i'm dani burger, and this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." kicking the can, the senate extends the debt limit cap to december, avoiding a default for now. stocks rally. the latest payroll data expected to solidify the november fed taper. treasury yields tick higher. china adds to risk sentiment,
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returning to the market after a weeklong holiday. the pboc pulls back support, joining cash from the system. happy friday, and happy jobs day . we are expecting a solid jobs number. 500,000 jobs added to the u.s. economy. will that be enough to lift the fog of uncertainty that is plaguing markets? late yesterday, the market is keeping an intense mood, and numbers today might help give us a rally in the equities market. what we really need for the rally to gain a stronger footing is a sense that inflation is getting under control through the narrative of the fed, and indications that supply chain pressures are easing. we need time, and we are far from pressures easing. tesla talking about the continued supply chain issue that is not allowing them to meet demands.
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we will have the job numbers today that give us a sense of direction of a fed taper in november. let's see how we are looking today. that fog of uncertainty means we can push slightly higher when it comes to the asian trading session. we will talk to juliette saly about that. up 0.3% on the asia index. s&p futures flat to unchanged. not a lot to trade on until the jobs numbers. the 10 year yield marches higher. we are near 1.6%. finally, crude close to $80 a barrel. we have the inflation, the energy story weighing on us. in the u.s. there is a temporary reprieve. the senate extended the debt ceiling until december 3, breaking partisan stalemate.
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john, thank you for joining us. we have the temporary debt suspension past. is this a win? john: it is certainly a win for markets, investors, people who were concerned about this. it remains to be seen who is the ultimate winner or not. mitch mcconnell yesterday was seen as having pulled off a gambit by making the democrats -- by calling their bluff when they said they did not have time to pull together reconciliation. it is a laborious process of passing this on their own. today -- thursday -- some cracks started to show in that scenario because republicans like ted cruz and donald trump were
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critical of mcconnell for agreeing to this. and that he had given away the game. dani: do those criticisms matter? now it goes to the house, we get another vote. the democratic party has the majority. is passage assured at this point? john: it is much more likely. the senate vote was very close. you had people like mitt romney, a moderate republican, voting no. unlike in the senate were you have to have 60 votes to pass just about anything, a simple majority will do in the house. they have been on break, but they were called back. they will be back tuesday. president biden said he will sign this as soon as it gets to him. dani: thank you so much.
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let's move to china which is returning to the market after a weeklong holiday. a lot has happened. joining us is juliette saly in singapore. we have not had to worry about the chinese stock market in the past few weeks, but we have had to worry about the china story. what is the reaction in markets finally open again? juliette: as mliv put it, china markets have returned with a carefree spirit. so much volatility. we have seen the cfi rise by 1.5%. the pboc draining liquidity, the most in a year, suggesting authorities are trying to bring normalization to the market. government bonds declined. when it comes to the hong kong market. , you have that back to where it
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was. it is a technical catch-up for the china market. the hang seng fairly flat. evergrande concerns of contagion still remain. it is not showing up too much, showing little stress when you look at china's funding market. these concerns have not gone away. how long this rally last is anybody's guess. dani: thank you so much, juliette saly in singapore. let's switch to oil, which is heading for its seventh weekly gain. climbing to $80 a barrel, already at a 2014 high. ben, we have had a little reprieve in the oil rally yesterday. what sparked it higher again today? ben: oil is heading back to $80,
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and it will hit that threshold since the first time since 2014. sturdy was from a couple of factors, remarks from the u.s. secretary that a release of strategic reserves. later thursday we had energy department say it had no plans for release. that reversed losses and sent prices to rise again. the energy crisis is driving the latest gains. the market has tightened significantly recently. we have an economic rebound from the pandemic, supply disruption from hurricane ida, and opec-plus saying they will only put a modest amount of crude back into the market in november. overall, it looks like oil is headed higher. dani: that is really affecting at times when we have a supply
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crunch. let's go to the bloomberg first word news. juliette: armin laschet has signaled he is prepared to step aside as the head of the cdu after the conservative's electoral defeat last month. he said the cdu needs new blood across the board. the social democrats say they got off to a good start in coalition talks with the greens in the pro business. ireland is said to sign up to a global agreement for a minimum corporate tax rate, a climb that removes a key hurdle to the unprecedented deal. at the meeting between 140 countries, the irish government said it will join the push. the u.k. his eased entry rules for 47 countries and territories that were previously subject to the tightest covid restrictions. visitors from south africa,
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mexico, and brazil will be able to avoid a 10 day quarantine as they are removed from the red list. u.k. will saudi arabia is sovern wealth fund, a united football club. the prices over 300 million pounds was cleared by the premier league after the weight of the year and a half. the news comes a day after a major stumbling block had been removed by saudi arabi, agreeing to remove a ban on qatar. they have not won a major trophy in 150 years. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. dani: juliette saly with a little friday football news. investors are looking ahead to the key jobs report for clues on the strength of the labor
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market. we will discuss that next, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> there is no question we have inflation today. the fed models in the treasury models do not necessarily predict what will happen in the future, because again of the fiscal and monetary response. my concern is that we will have inflation and it will continue. some of it may be transition, but look at energy prices. something i thought we would never see during covid is negative prices of oil. now the biden administration is talking about releasing oil from the strategic reserve. clearly we have inflation in energy.
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the economy is rebounding. labor prices are up. i do worry that this will be ongoing inflation, and we could easily end up with 3.5% tenure treasuries, which increases the cost of the national debt and creates budget issues. dani: former treasury secretary steven mnuchin on the possibility of a 3.5%. department of energy saying they do not have plans to release those reserves yet. we also have the jobs report that will be key for investors to assess whether the abrupt decline in hiring in august was a blip or something with staying power. joining us is kiran ganesh, global head of investment communications, ubs wealth management. thank you for joining us this morning. all eyes on the jobs report later today. how would you characterize the risks going into the numbers?
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kiran: as i was with jobs reports, it is whether it is too hot or cold. investors will look at it on the risk side. a relatively weak month last month. if below expectations this month,, that could lead to concerns that the effect of the delta variant and weaker consumer confidence is weighing on the jobs market. if it comes in too hot, people may shift their focus away from tapering and maybe toward rate hikes. if it comes in line with consensus, then tapering likely to be starting to be announced in november this year. we think that will be in favor of things like the u.s. dollar as the fed. dani: it does seem like a careful balance that you're describing. in terms of what would prompt the fed to cut -- or to start
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tapering -- powell talk about this in his last meeting. listen to the sound of what he said. >> for me it would not take a knockout super employment report, it would take a reasonably good employment report to feel like that test is met. dani: reasonably good is what powell says. do we have in our mindset what that range would be? kiran: they will be looking at a range, the data this week -- the payrolls reflect that in any way, that would fulfill that test. in addition to the headline number, they will be looking at wage growth as a sign of underlying inflation pressures in the economy. if we see anything in that
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half-million range in terms of new jobs getting added, plus good wage growth, that would fulfill powell's test. dani: you also mentioned all of this could contribute to a stronger dollar. how much stronger you see the greenback's run going from here? kiran: over the course of the past year rates have been pinned at low levels, but if we look forward, the u.s. dollar is likely to benefit from higher interest rates, from the tapering, from the fed. we look at issues facing the rest of the world on energy issues and supply chain issues, they do not affect the u.s. as much as for europe and asia. we think this is in favor of the dollar. with volatility picking up, that risk aversion trade is getting attractive for investors. a number of factors are in favor of more dollar strength. dani: in terms of volatility, it
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feels we have been whipsawed by markets. in this type of volatile environment it seems easy to get carried away with day-to-day action. as we go through a more volatile period, where do you want to be position to protect yourself? kiran: we have been talking that the energy in the financial sector -- we like those because they are well-positioned in this high nominal growth environment. when we look today in a portfolio context to add additional value as the hedge against the risks, we think of two of the main risks, rising energy prices leading to weaker activity among consumers, or, higher bond yields leading to concerns about growth stock valuations. in both scenarios we expect energy and financial sectors benefiting. we like both of those sectors as
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part of a global portfolio because we think they will do well in themselves and this high nominal growth environment but as portfolio hedges. dani: that is oppressing call to say energy is the place you want to be. but is not just because financials and energy are seen as value stocks, and we want to see that rotation crystallize, but i wonder if this value rotation will the different than we typically do, if it will be energy and financials that lead the market higher. kiran: you might get more sector by sector approach because it is being driven by things like oil and on deals rather than a wholesale shift in investor psychology away from growth and towards value. when we hear the comments earlier about 3.5% treasury yields, we think that is very unlikely given where the neutral
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rate is. that kind of thing would try for more value, but we are being more selective and focusing on things like energy and financials. dani: always selective and was focused. you will stick around with us, that is kiran ganesh, global head of investment communications, ubs wealth management. coming up, yields continue to spike. more markets, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i do not think that is the current american situation. it could be a hurdle in the way to compromise, and a final agreement on all technical parameters of this new
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international taxation system. >> a lot of work has been done. i am optimistic that in time for the g20 leaders summit we will finalize an agreement. >> i share the quiet optimism. this is a once in a generation opportunity. it is a once in a generation opportunity to make the international tax system fair. dani: key voices on the global race to attacks deal. ireland is ready to sign up to an agreement, a key hurdle to an unprecedented deal. acta markets were stocks arising, as concerns about the u.s. debt ceiling ease. 10 year u.s. treasury yields have reached the highest insmed june. payrolls data is out today that could solidify expectations of the fed taper. still with us is kiran ganesh, global head of investment communications, ubs wealth management. we were talking about yields, and you are saying in the
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context of steve saying we get 3.5%, but you do not think we will get there. do you think we are nearing the cyclical peak in u.s. yields? kiran: there might be a little more to go. we are looking for 1.8% by the end of the year, a little more upside as we get tapering coming through from the fed. we do not expect to see more substantial increases in yields. when you think about where the neutral rate is, we think that is below zero. you have to think about yields being below the rates of inflation for the foreseeable future. then the question is, can we expect to see significant he high rates of inflation like at the moment persist into the future. we think that is relatively unlikely. dani: if you think that is unlikely, and we hear from the sideline, more calls for inflation, sticky inflation, even stagflation, is there
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anywhere you can take advantage of that if the market is getting off kilter? kiran: you are starting to see in some breakeven markets inflation picking up more than might be expected in the event of a transitory inflation shop. if you are more cautious on inflation, being relatively underweight insecurities relative to nominal treasuries would be a strategy you could pursue. we generally think this is a series of supply shocks we are facing. we have seen it in semiconductors, in autos last year, and now in the energy stocks. we do not see this is transmitting into a more persistent wage gains, a more persistent inflationary dynamic. we think while you get higher inflation in the near term, it is not persist over the medium term. dani: if we can shift gears, i
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know you like japan as a market. looking at the nikkei this year, 2.5% rise which compares to 70% for the s&p 500, what is the catalyst to allow japan to start giving that return? kiran: it has been a trip in recent months with hope's that fiscal stimulus will come through. and after the election, concerns about rising capital gains taxes. we think japan as a cyclical market should benefit from the reopening trade which is taking hold in the u.s. and europe, but also in asia. domestically the vaccination program in japan is accelerating as of late. we think the domestic reopening should and that market. as i said earlier with energy
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and financials, if you are looking at a global market that benefits from rising u.s. yields and tighter u.s. policy, it is japan. a market people tend not to own much of, we think it is a useful hedge when you think about concerns about u.s. interest rate. dani: in general with china closed, japan has been hit hard, perhaps as a release valve. we have seen asia high-yield debt get hit hard by evergrande. your choice. do you think some of the second-order effects are overdone? kiran: i think in terms of the second-order effect, we would say that is overdone. there are genuine challenges china is facing, but in terms of regulation in the property sector, does that transmit beyond china into markets like
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japan? we think not. china will need to adapt to a different growth dynamic. that will have effects on individual companies around the world. we do not see this as a contagion event. that was widely talked about a couple weeks ago. we think that will be contained to china. dani: great to catch up with you this morning. that is kiran ganesh, global head of investment communications, ubs wealth management,'coming up, we will stick with the jobs picture because the market is waiting for the data to see if the fog of uncertainty will left, and any clues that jobs report might give us on the strength of the labor market. the other important factor, what does it mean for the fed policy? powell has been clear saying it does not need to be an exceptional report, just a strong one. 500,000 jobs added is the
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consensus. more details, next. is is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarter. it is 6:30 a.m. i'm dani burger. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the senate extends the debt ceiling cap to december, averting a default for now. it stocks rally. investors eye the latest payroll data. it treasury yields tick higher. china adds to risk sentiment,
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returning to the market after a weeklong holiday. pboc pulls back support, draining cash from the banking system. will the fog of uncertainty be lifted in this market? that is a question -- the jobs number could help the equity rally, but what we need for it is stronger footing, and the sense inflation is getting under control. and indication supply chain pressures are easing. we need more time. does not seem like it will be fixed anytime soon, hence the volatility in these markets. let's get a quick check. msci asia-pacific open in terms of china's market being open after a weeklong holiday. that is supporting the sentiment. the asia pacific index up 0.4%. in the past 30 minutes, s&p futures into the red, but a
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sickly flat. -- but basically flat. crude nearing $80 a barrel in new york trading. that is contributing to the inflation worry. investors will be closely watching that jobs report to assess whether an abrupt decline in hiring in august was a blip or something with staying power. joining us is sarah hewin, managing director, standard chartered bank, the september report seems to be a lot of hype, you have the calendar rolling over with kids returning to school, you have unemployment benefits expiring. how important is this data? sarah: it is very important. we have seen deterioration in activity through the late
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summer, and so this report really comes at the cost of one things started to improve, and we have this important meeting next month when we expect the tapering announcement. if we get a strong report or a week report, then markets will start to question how fast the pace of tapering need to be or if it needs to start at all. dani: how low is the bar for the fed to execute in november to start tapering? sarah: we have had such a strong signal they are prepared to pick up tapering soon that i think it would take quite a bad jobs report for them to pause at this stage. we did have late last week the
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suggestion we could see a dramatic drop in payrolls today, and if that were to happen and we were to see earnings on the weak side, policymakers might consider whether now is the right time. i think short of a dramatically bad number, the fed is probably on autopilot with that announcement early next month. we think tapering starts in december, and jay powell indicated into next year. dani: how do you look at the participation rate? how do you view whether people will come back or if they permanently exited the jobs market? sarah: participation has been disappointing.
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i think that is why this report will be interesting. we are in the period benefits came to an end. the problem is we are on the cusp. things are still lingering from the pandemic, but we expect numbers to rise. expected improvement in the on them limit rate. -- on the unemployment rate. dani: in terms of us being on the cusp as you put it, a lot of covid hit leisure and hospitality. how unknown is the jobs picture
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in that sector specifically? sarah: we have seen a pickup in activity in that sector. because when the payroll survey was carried out was earlier in september, we may not see the impact on restaurants and leisure being reflected in more jobs in that sector. the scope is substantial. it is the sector were covered fears are likely to be reflected in people making bookings and pulling out. the other impact is on earnings.
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it is such an important reading today given the worries we have over inflation. the restaurant and leisure industry, if we do not see jobs being created, we could see a jump in earnings which would make markets more nervous about inflation. dani: obviously this would not factor much until last month, but this month we have concern about the energy crisis. do you expect that will get more into inflation adjusted earnings? sarah: yes, energy costs are rising. we continue to see all input costs rising, not just energy. food prices are. now we are getting reopening costs. in addition to energy, we are
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expecting inflation will stay and probably come in higher than the fed expectations for the fourth quarter of this year. how do people and businesses react to that? they have to offer higher wages to attract labor, or do we see wages squeezed? sentiment suggests consumers are becoming more cautious about making large purchases because there wages are being squeezed. dani: we have to leave it there. thank you for joining us. that is sarah hewin, managing director, standard chartered bank. let's get to the first word news. juliette: the senate has approved legislation will pulls the u.s. government back from the brink of a payment default. this raises the limit by $480
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billion allowing the treasury to meet obligations until december 3. the legislation is expected to pass the house, which could vote on it next week. bummer secretary steven mnuchin's warning about the risks of borrowing and spending by the biden administration, and concerns it could fuel inflation. he told david westin >> the good news is the economy is rebounding very strong. labor prices are up. i do worry that this will be ongoing inflation, and we could easily end up with 3.5% 10 year treasuries which increases the cost of the national debt and creates budget issues. juliette: armin laschet is prepared to step aside as the head of germany's cdu after the conservative electoral defeat last month. in a video call, he said the cdu
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needs new blood across-the-board. the social democrats say they got off to a good start in coalition talks with the greens and the pro-business free democrats. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thank you so much, juliette saly in singapore. with rising energy prices and bond yields, the ftse could follow suit, but why is there a disconnect? we will discuss that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe."
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i'm dani burger in europe. rising bond yields in oil prices have been creating havoc in the stock market, but with a quarter of the index leveraged, the interest rates and energy, the ftse should stand to gain. how is the market reflecting the scenario? the faces here being that rising yields and energy should help the ftse 100 does not seem to be playing out that way? >> is interesting in that the ftse has other challenges, no doubt. it has big consumers, big health care, big industrial. they'll have their issues and there are margin concerns. as you mentioned, 27% of the index is either in financials or energy, and the dynamics of those it comes back to the idea
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that if you cannot beat them, join them. in this case the ftse more than any other market in europe has exposure to these factors. dani: let's get into some of those, what is the relationship? tim: if you look longer-term, the ftse's financials trade very closely with the 10 year gilt if you look at relative performance. that is broken down over the course of the past few months since we have seen gilts rise. ftse financials have flatlined until recently. the same is true when you come to the energy markets. ftse energy with royal dutch shell trade in lockstep over time with crude or brent specifically, and they haven't since last autumn.
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we think both of those dynamics are likely to hold for a while. the market is just coming around. you think value as an investment factor is now coming into its own again. and these groups are something center when it comes to value investing. dani: you mentioned rates, they seem to be the catalyst to move u.s. rates rising rapidly. are you concerned that move is going to choke off growth? tim: clearly it is the 64,000 pound question. there is a difference between the boe taking back some of the punch volvo versus slamming on the brakes to slow the economy. they are not looking to do that. look at the longer-term.
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we have seen this 50 basis point spike in yields just in two months, up 100 basis points since last year. oil we have not seen this high since 2018. on the interest rate front, we have barely seen a move if you look over a 10 year. . we are at historically low levels. if we go through our quantitative valuation work, even if we saw gilts jump to 2%, which we are not anticipating, we get a half-point, half multiple point on valuation. it is not that big of a deal at this point given hello they are. -- given how low they are. dani: you have this u.s. private equity funds linked to pay 40 u.k. groceries, and we did not
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see those prices in u.k. markets. i wonder if the u.k. audience, if there is a sentiment issue. you can have international companies happy to pay valuations on u.k. markets, but the u.k. markets themselves do not see able -- do not seem able to live up to those. tim: there is no doubt there are points of reference like morrison's that are cheap. undoubtedly. you look at the overall multiples of ftse, and it looks in the tank relative to other global markets, but keep in mind more than 60% of the ftse is actually trading at 17+ times earnings. the big drag on ftse multiples are banks and energy, materials. those trade cheap multiples, they have to be big segments of the ftse.
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i would argue the ftse is not as cheap as what a lot of people think it is on the surface. there is outbound ftse investment as well. there is big inbound interest but u.k. companies are making outbound investments in the u.s., in europe. there is a big outbound flow. dani: thank you so much for joining us, tim craighead, our bloomberg intelligence. with tensions escalating between the largest economies, there are plans for president biden to meet virtually with president xi jinping before the end of the year. singapore's prime minister said tensions have raising, and there is much to be gained by working collectively. >> i think the tensions have escalated. i think the rhetoric has sharpened. but both at the very top,
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presidency, president joe biden. these are experienced, seasoned statesman. i do not believe that they are aiming for conflict. but there are certainly issues they will have to work through. we need to give them some space and time to do so. what we're seeing from the point of view of southeast asia is to say, look, confronted by a digital revolution and the existential threat of climate change, and the acute challenge of covid-19 -- there is so much more to be gained by working collectively, working together. i really believe this does not have to be a zero-sum game.
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haslinda: president biden is reviewing his policy toward china. what needs rethinking? you talk about how their needs to be a rebalancing, readjusting. what would it take for both sides to come to a compromise and work together? >> this is where you are asking me to venture into dangerous territory and give advice. haslinda: [laughter] your thoughts? >> just bear in mind singapore is not even a midsize city in china or the united states. obviously we have skin in the game. 1.i would make is for the u.s. to understand that while china certainly became part of the multilateral system,
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particularly with its ascension into the wto 30 years ago, and this has been an avenue for an unprecedented historical achievement of lifting hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty. one caveat i would insert is the u.s. should not expect china to become more like the u.s. china has a deep historical sense of identity. it is a civilizational state. it has absolutely no intention to become like the u.s.. dani: singapore's foreign minister speaking to us as part of the bloomberg invest mobile forum. treasuries are on a tear this morning. a lot of selling going on in the bond space. the five year yield has made a
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round-trip to pre-pandemic levels. it is at its highest level since february 2020, buying on the curve intensely on the long end. the 30 year yield up three basis points. we have jobs later today, expecting a positive report. the energy complex is moving higher as well. coming up, we will speak about oil heading for its seventh weekly gain, after the u.s. energy department says it has no plans to tap oil reserves. more on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm dani burger in london. oil is headed for its seventh weekly gain, the longest run since december, with wti nearing $80 a barrel. oil prices have been volatile.
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wti is close to hitting $80 a barrel. opec is sticking to its agreement. what exactly has been driving the prices? >> there are a lot of factors involved. oil has been very volatile and wti and brent both rising almost 30% since the second half of august. a number of events or driving prices up and down, and the latest is the global energy crunch that investors are expecting to boost oil demand. the u.s. energy secretary came out in a conference saying they might use oil from the reserves, so gasoline prices have surged. then it was followed by the government remark that it had no plans to do so at this point. we are waiting for details on
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that. opec-plus is agreeing to keep to their output increase of 400,000 barrels per day. investors are concerned about supply deficit. dani: we have less than one minute, but analysts speaking to, what is the estimated amount that will add to oil upside? sharon: i think they will be accelerating the oil demand recovery, and we have increased oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day. we had the likes of goldman sachs, which expected 650,000 barrels a day of more oil being added to the current consumption. it looks like a lot of people might turn to other oil products.
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dani: thank you so much for joining us. oil marches toward $80 a barrel for wti. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the european open is up next. anna edwards and mark cudmore will walk you through that. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good?
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♪ anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." mark cudmore joins me, usually from singapore, today he is in london to take us to the market action. the cash trade is less than an hour away. kicking the can success. the senate passes a short-term debt selling increase, averting a default for not. stocks rally.


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