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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 7, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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stocks. >> if inflation risks persist you will see breakevens to continue to rise from here on. >> there are elements here we are dealing with stagflation. >> there is this idea that higher prices become solution to higher prices. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. following the biggest one-day reversal on the s&p 500 since february, we add some weight to yesterday's rally. advanced by 6/10 of 1% on the s&p. tom: mcconnell to the rescue, prudent to the rescue. you capture the turnaround in european hydrocarbons. jonathan: i think you nailed it there.
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mcconnell to the rescue, prudent to the rescue? how much faith can you have in that lasting. tom: what i know as we go to the data check. we are in the midst of a market up. it's a draw up. standard & poor's 500 up to point some percent. nasdaq 100, was the opposite of craters. lisa: surge. let's think of what lingo we can come up with next. this is a question of what has material change. trying to lighten up heading into what should be -- so high. our valuations -- are valuation still so high given where we are on value expectations? jonathan: the image of a
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friendly russian bear telling us it's going to be ok. it's a little unnerving. tom: he made a really good point, he got chastised outside the show yesterday because he didn't use a long y-axis on the hydrocarbon surge. this is wicked inside baseball. the smart guy says you should look at percentage move, you showed the moonshot yesterday. adults go to logs and when they go to, in the drawdown isn't as big as it looks. jonathan: we will start with a percentage change right now. going to the bond market, good morning to you all. unchanged on tens at 1.52. in the fx market, euro-dollar,
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some great reporting over the team at frankfurt. the ecb said to be full studying a new bona fide program to replace the emergency bond buying program. tom: can you explain it. jonathan: crude softer. lisa, 7640. lisa: that seems to be the theme perhaps i'll be considering there is credibility issues. period the rescue as well as some others. we are getting the a: 30 a.m. jobs. the expectation is to trend lower and we will see probably a big spike lower, a big drawdown in the total ongoing claims. what i'm looking at is the auto sector in particular. temporary layoffs provide supply chain disruption. it's fallen off a cliff to the
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lowest on record. i'm wondering how much this indicates the slowdown we see that it continue to impede the labor recovery. we have the cleveland fed president planning to speak at a virtual panel on inflation along with philip. you've consumer price indexes out of the highest level going past 2008. disagreement about what's driving it. it comes out of the labor market. it's the final day of the bloomberg invest conference. is it a thing, is it not a thing. the former u.s. treasury secretary will probably have something to say on the debt ceiling debate. jonathan: thank you. looking ahead to tomorrow. 500 k is the estimate. this is from chairman powell in the last news conference. it wouldn't take a knockout
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great super strong employment report, it would take a recently good employment report to feel like that test is met. we have been a do this for the next 24 hours. once we get that number we work out whether that's a reasonably good employment report, whether it gets that done. >> so distracted with the other issues like the serious issues in washington. the energy is 30 days ago. with that said you could get a surprise. jonathan: looking forward to that report in a little more than 24 hours. joining us is sebastian. the column this morning. how durable do you expect that to be? >> not very durable. what you have is two narratives. particular what you try to do in the equity market just rally so high.
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you've decent odds of doing it. it's been a miserable failure. this is really nothing paid on the other side, which is continued for months and months on end. particularly within growth as well as within quality. you're trying to slowly return to that fairytale we had before. the fed tapering gently. and it's not realistic in what sense of the future, but it's a very strange market. lisa: how much do you lean into the near term fairytale and by what you can at year end? >> when there is a drawdown you want to buy in it. bet on the economy doing well have not doing so well and probably not as well as people recognize, the labor market is
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tightening. that inflation which is expected to stay at elevated level for a long time is probably a lot faster boosting equity. some prudence knowing what you on and some say the future is there for you. tom: you write wonderfully dense notes. as only one paragraph that jumps out. for our viewers and listeners, explain the magic of the dollar. >> my father collected some books. we have the death of the dollar written at the end of the 70's. it shows a different variety of understanding of how the dollar is important to the rest of the economy. one of the very few places on earth were you can find safety. soon people feel uncertain, they
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feel the fed will hike eventually and there will be some tapering in these two arguments are not coherent. the dollars were liquidity is being pooled. over time you will see trade has more difficulties in reaching a lot of supply chains and so forth. that means a higher concentration of trade through the dollar. it is where our belief and their fears are based. some people are very nervous when we see the democrats turn to play with the nuclear bombs regarding the debt ceiling. and our sense of certainty and safety in the u.s. treasury curve. jonathan: there is a difference between a dollar bull, a dollar bear and what tom keene is getting at. why are they so wrong and always so wrong? >> we just saw china and russia
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during the great financial crisis. they shorten the duration. very little commercial, they pulled their funding out of american banks and put them all, they were very afraid of one thing which is the fed would print away inflation and surge across the board and that would kill the value of the dollar as well, probably with durations around five years in the case of russia as well as china. that cost them dearly. this is the essence of that fear you see not only for people who think like this, also bitcoin. jonathan: great to catch up. the dollar index, 94.19. just ask a fixed income strategist what they would do,
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they will tell you 99% of them will tell you they would buy treasuries. doesn't that just speak to this perfectly? tom: this goes into jobs tomorrow. you look at yield what john just said. do you look at the price. we forget the wall of liquidity looking for a warm spot. you can argue about duration, all the stuff lisa spends 28 hours everyday on. the bottom line is price matters right now and there's insatiable demand. jonathan: lisa has a long day ahead of her. when you get that central bank report on how big the balance sheet is print what you make of that note? lisa: this is where i wanted to go. saying it's time to reduce overweight positions in risk assets per probably not until the end of the year or next year. that partly has to do with the
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fiscal impulse per we are getting back to the economic cycle. everybody kind of feels like this is a near term fairytale, not a long term fairytale. when you take action. jonathan: we would reduce exposure to equities and high-yield credit into the new year and then start to fade the rallies as we get into 22. tom: i'm speechless. lisa: clearly. [laughter] tom: right now it is almost incoherent between the bulls and the bears. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. futures up. advancing 7/10 of 1%. tom: i have nothing to say. jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. >> with the first word news.
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democrats are signaling they will accept senate republican leader mitch mcconnell's offer to raise the debt ceiling which would allow the immediate risk of default. it increases another political fight near the end of the year. a federal judge has temporarily block texas' new ban on most abortions. he said the law outsourcing enforcement to bounty hunting members of the public was contrived to get around a constitutional right. it is a major win for the biden administration, which has sued to overturn the ban. damage from the coronavirus expand well beyond the virus according to a study from a health system in st. louis. it found even people never need hospitalizations are in danger of developing heart failure. in china travel during the , so-called golden week national vacation was down by a third from pre-pandemic levels. government measures to contain coronavirus outbreaks prompted vacationers to spend time closer to home.
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well, that may be why chinese movie theaters saw an increase in business. there is a booming market for finance jobs in london now that the lockout has been eased. there were more listings between july and september, more than twice that number the third of last year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are making good progress.
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i hope we can come to an agreement tomorrow morning. >> the democrats who've run -- who run washington have squandered week after week after week. >> we are not going to default as a country. we will not default. engage, start working. it should not be a crisis. jonathan: chuck schumer, mitch mcconnell, somewhere in between, senator joe manchin. good morning. this thursday morning, this is what we look like, this is how things are set up. yields unchanged. euro-dollar unchanged. the next stop for this one, jobless claims 8:30 eastern time. 24 hours after that it's off to payrolls friday. why mcconnell back down. the former president, the president and was with one agree
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on something. mitch mcconnell back down wednesday. jonathan: we are really doing -- tom: in washington we are doing some real surveillance reporting. it's understood the compromise is that the debt ceiling will be pushed out to 37 days after the red sox win the world series, that the operative point this morning. you've got to be kidding me. if they move the can down the road, what happens then? >> this does not exactly solve the problem. this kicked the can down the road. we don't know how long it would kick the can down the road. one thing republicans are pushing his democrats will have to raise the debt ceiling instead of suspend the debt ceiling. you raise it to a specific number ultimately they will be able to campaign on that 30 plus trillion dollar debt. but by raising it that makes it less certain when it's going to,
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you can set up another deadline. the republican insistence that democrats act alone remains even though mcconnell sort of retreated temporarily here, there is no change in the overall republican position or in the democratic position that they don't want to do that. the issue is still very much up in the air with the two parties are not sincerely negotiating, this just happens to give them more time, it adds some uncertainty because of the difficulty of predicting the exact day to. tom: in the washington post, the senator from iowa -- has the senator from iowa running again. he said they have to provide the votes. do the democrats understand how narrow their majority is? >> they seem to understand how narrow their majority is and
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they've got some pretty good experience lately whipping votes that are pretty challenging and working on the infrastructure bill and the reconciliation bill. when it comes to this, this probably in the short term will not be difficult to get the votes because the democrats want dissolution, they want to avoid a crisis for now and if they can do 10 extra republican votes on board to make it to 60 that would not appear to be a problem. the challenge though is republicans are saying they have to do it alone eventually and it's not the democrats can come up with the votes because of any underlying issue it's that they don't want to go through the complex process of reconciliation that would allow them to do that because that would give republicans unlimited floor votes on amendments they want to offer and it's a matter of politics. the democrats can get the votes but they don't want to go
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through the politically painful process that gives republicans a lot of campaign talking points heading towards next year. lisa: i was an essay are we talking about infrastructure or the 22 midterm elections. that's ultimately what we are talking about. >> yes. that's absolutely overriding issue. particular with the debt limit. this become such a stalemate that they are fortunate to have a temporary way out of because for one, republicans are insisting on a process that would set up unlimited floor votes when it would really be messaging votes where they are focused on 2022 and democrats don't want to do that because they are so hesitant to raise the debt ceiling rather than suspend it. if you raise it it will be in excess of $30 trillion and that sounds bad. but both sides really are very focused on the 2022 midterms and very significant affecting how
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these negotiations play out. lisa: this is the backdrop for that. is this also the backdrop for an announcement from the u.s. energy secretary who said the u.s. is considering releasing strategic reserves of oil to bring down gas prices. this as gas prices rise to the highest in more than seven years. is this political into 2022 when the higher the price is at the pump, the worse it is for the incumbent? >> it's a bit of a -- truism to say they are significant issue heading into an election day. i don't know if we can entirely make the case that any action secretary of energy takes that would be aimed at lowering gas prices is entirely political. but it is an issue that pretty much everybody in washington you talk to understands is a major factor into 2022 them not your anybody expected to just immediately reverse itself and
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go away. that's a potential albatross for democrats as we get closer to november of next year. jonathan: put on a bit of a clinic for us. for people outside of america looking in, how important is this filibuster debate? for everything that's playing out in the last when he four hours. >> it's very important. the debt ceiling handoff highlighted -- standoff highlighted this a number of democrats who would like some sort of carve out to the filibuster. they have some carveouts like the reconciliation process they are using for some key bills. but the fact even though they have that route they want more -- a number of democrats want more carveouts of the filibuster is telling. we are not at the point where they are about to do it, but the rhetoric is heating up and you can sense a lot of frustration on the democratic side with the fibuer. jonathan: thank you, jack.
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tom keene, this feels very european doesn't it. tom: it feels european but we've been doing this for years. i can or member the statistic of how many times we've done it. it's an original politics, there is an election coming up. i get all of that and i may really be wrong on this and the people like me may be wrong where we go i could really be wrong. jonathan: year end with a fed decision. tom: i don't think we should go on vacation the three of us. lisa: you are making friends by suggesting nobody go on vacation. honestly this is going to be interesting especially because the longer we go without a resolution the longer the federal reserve will run -- may run out of tools to deal with the debt limit on an interim
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basis. jonathan: what did someone put in your tank this morning? why are you so upset? tom: i was sent a bottle of champagne. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: let's call the past 24 hours interesting. a reflection of where we are at the moment. equity futures are positive 27 on the s&p. the nasdaq up 9/10. the russell and small-cap up for tenths of 1%. from -1.3% to positive about 4/10 of 1% near the close. i'm not talking abut the debt ceiling, i'm talking about energy and what we had on both sides of the atlantic. from russia, the president of the european central bank weighing in and offering some soothing words, that of natural gas from plus 40% and negative at the close. right no natural gas down another 2.85 percent, look at
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wti close to an 80 handle. we are negative there 1.8%. the energy secretary leaving everything from the table to do summing about this oil rally. in the bond market, twos, attends and 30's. and around about two hours climb we get to jobless claims. tom keene, your next stop is payroll 24 hours after jobless claims. we're looking for some thing in the region of 500,000. we've got no idea. tom: maybe it's not as big a deal is what we saw before, but with that said, i think it's really going to be interesting to see the wage dynamic. what are we doing with restaurants and bars.
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jonathan: this is the september payroll a port, the range of estimates is still that wide. highly unpredictable paired we still don't know. tom: we will get to the first week in november and do the same ballet. right now what we will do is digress to an incredibly important essay for the year end but much more is it the essay across generations. richard haass came out of oakland college for what i'm good to call the eastern midwest with the council on foreign president and olivet harkens back to a midwest isolationism personified at the chicago tribune a zillion years ago. here is's writing in foreign affairs and he is absolutely blistering, no other way to put it. there is a paradigm shift in the united states approach to the world, the new paradigm dismisses the report -- the core
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tenant of our 20th-century approach that the united states has a vital stake in a broader global system. are we all reading the chicago tribune? are we going back to my grandfather's age? >> i wouldn't call it quite to that extreme. the last two administrations is a fairly muscular policy towards china. i wouldn't call it isolationism, but it is narrow, it's a domestic first. doesn't concern itself with rejoining many international arrangements or institutions. it really is a domestic first approach to the world. tom: our francine lacqua interviewed -- in the last 48 hours. are you conflating antony blinken with rex tillerson? >> no, but this administration
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has been surprisingly maladroit in its diplomacy. people who speak french fluently could have called the french and said it doesn't make sense to sell these diesel submarines, they don't have the range, they aren't sufficiently quiet, we want to find a way to compensate you for the lost submarine sale. this ought to have been within the realm of doable diplomacy lisa: how significant is it that we are talking about the fairytale of vladimir putin coming to the rescue for the energy situation in the united kingdom and europe more broadly. does it signify the changing world regime? >> what it signifies is vladimir putin as plate is limited cards very well, whether it's nuclear, conventional military or cyber, his energy. the europeans of bought into it whether if it's with nord stream
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2 and the germans. the brits have not been strategic and allowed themselves to become dependent. tomorrow he could take it away. >> it's interesting the likes of germany is facing increasing dependency not only on vladimir putin, but she asian pain. a time when the u.s. is having a serious issue with both nations prayed i'm wondering the reason for this is because of the increasing isolationism of the united states. >> i don't think so. i think it's more about european commercialism print at -- putting economics first, not taking a serious role in the world, particularly true of germany under merkel. i know she's getting lots of positive things said about her, but the lack of a strategic approach was remarkable. you are seeing similar things. many parts of europe, what you're seeing in the united states, we may change the label
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here. we've got foreign policy for the middle class. but the -- is pretty similar. tom: when you wrote a world in disarray you could not imagine the fiscal chaos. jonathan ferro was describing the debt ceiling. how do we prosecute whatever foreign policy with our domestic front in such disarray. >> the short answer is can do it well. we are not predictable, we are not reliable. those were dependent upon security, they look at us and there is a wise choice. you mention some of my previous books. the book i'm writing now is on america's domestic turmoil, on
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the threats to american democracy. i think the greatest threat to our standing in the world to our standing at home is not china or north korea or iran or russia, it's ourselves. it begins here. tom: how do the moderates take the high ground. looking at the zany us of what it's done every day. how do we rediscover the middleground of american politics. >> by the answer to that i put it out there. we talk about redoing civics education, americans understand why democracy is valuable. we also need some profiles in courage. the republican performance on the debt ceiling is --.
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why are these centrist republicans following in a responsible path? i don't understand. lisa: how do you talk about the idea of globalization being a positive thing at a time when there are increasing supply chain disruptions and you have some of the consequences of globalization still impeding a labor market or at least that is the perception in the united states. >> is both positive and negative and the challenge is pushback. i think trade is blamed for all sorts of problems for productivity increases, innovation. people haven't done a good job of explaining it. it doesn't count for the fact that we don't of a trade policy. it could have been given by trump administration official. the united states is not doing anything to reform the wto.
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they are not participating in the principal trade agreement. we are hurting themselves strategically. for this rejection of localization. jonathan: great to have you with us on the program. helena croft, lisa mentioned earlier the comments from the energy secretary in the united states on the possibility of release from the strategic petroleum in america. coming across saying these comments were clearly aimed to try and incentivize saudi arabia and its opec-plus partners to put more barrels on the market. tom: it's like set your watch. i'll be honest. to me it's a sideshow. though we did learn decades ago.
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she says at some point as she calls it the central bank of oil will step in. jonathan: the remarks from her reflected growing concern a perilous run-up in prices could derail the global recovery. tom: they could also -- lisa: it also derail the 2022 chances. gas prices at $3.19 a gallon. morgan stanley analysts point out the reason gas prices are going up is because demand is going up. jonathan: it goes to summing francisco talked about. if we have triple digit crude, and he's got basecase, what is that look like going into the midterms? tom: going in, a three point x x per gallon, i'm dennis a 3.58
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with the average inflation-adjusted. you get may be up to four dollars, that's what it means for the election. jonathan: one day we will share addresses live on air. tom: when was the last time you drove a car? jonathan: 18. lisa: when you were 18 or 2018? [laughter] jonathan: maybe i was a little bit older. lisa: when we go on the road trip i'd be the driver. crude is 76.20. equities up 29. it's thursday or you are almost there. this is bloomberg. >> with the first word news, i'm
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ritika gupta. the senate is closing in on a deal that would avert a potential devastating default. democrat on the verge of excepting a proposal to push the debt limit into stte december. bloomberg learned by an administration is debating the fate of the imf managing director at she's been caught up in an ethics scandal from the time she was at the world bank. the u.s. could ask her to resign. the fund is reviewing an investigation. bloomberg has learned he bond buying program would be used to provide market -- protect market turmoil. it would replace the existing crisis tool and complement an older quantitative easing scheme. according to halifax, the average price of a home in the
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u.k. rose per the annual rate of growth increased 7.4%. there is a healthy demand despite some heck -- economic headwinds. a report highlights the surge in the use of financial --. including the option to pay in installments when they shop online. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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>> people don't know who to believe, what to believe, where to go for good information.
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as a crisis of misinformation. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. do you remember the middle of march last year. if i told you we would still be talking about in october of 2021, what would you have said? but here we are. tom: it's a really good point. i'd say with my limited knowledge we would still be talking about it but would it be like this, no. jonathan: the president at the time was struggling it off. a shrug of the shoulders here. here we are still talking about it. tom: this is a really important conversation. we all feel we are not in a play amateur doctor paired we will talk to adults about the issues at hand.
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david is at johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. it's much more than just anybody me i'll adjust, someone with an international perspective and holistic knowledge of the research at hand. i want to cut to the chase. on cardiac research, this is follow-on six months, one year where we don't know what the internal medicine blood ramifications are of this odd pathogen. what is it going to be? do we know yet what the complications are? >> we do not know for sure, but what we do know is the overall rates of these cardiac complications are pretty low. what we need unfortunately even though it is a year-and-a-half in, we still need more research. tom: the percentage numbers are there and we get this scientific notation. forget about the math.
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people are going to compare cardiac internal medicine complications to say the flu or a cold or pneumonia. are they equivalent or is this much worse? >> it is worse, substantially than the flu or the cold. pneumonia depends on what kind of pneumonia you are talking about but we can draw comparisons all we want, this is still a more deadly and more serious infection by far than just the flu or the cold. lisa: this brings up long covid and what we know in terms of how long it lasts and how prevalent the existing symptoms are paired with the latest on that? >> the prevalence depends on who you compare it to. it is certainly a real thing and certainly at least one in 10 to 20 people experience the symptoms beyond three-month spirit how long it lasts, we are
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still figuring that out. the longer you go, the more symptoms there are. but it definitely persists in for some people has persisted as long as we've been tracking symptoms. lisa: it is getting cooler. kids are back in school for the most part and might expose each other despite their best efforts to keep their masks on. are these symptoms more severe because of the one year hiatus between getting infected with anything? our immune systems down so much that other illnesses could have a severe impact? >> it's probably not because of the immune systems being down but rather because our immune systems haven't seen these things for a year-and-a-half because we've all been hunkering down. it is possible. we do not know if things like the flu will be more serious this year but it is a possibility paid that something
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we are keeping an eye on. tom: is delta fading away? i look at the maps in the washington post and the new york times, can you say we really rounded a corner? >> i think we have rounded a corner. it doesn't mean is not another surge in front of us, but things are definitely going down and all those cases are delta. i would not say it is fading away. we are still at about 100,000 cases a day, it is still a big deal. but it is going down and looks to be a real trend. tom: where are we on masks? i was on fifth avenue and i noticed a dearth of masks out there. there were a lot of people walking around without masks on. where do you stand on masks? >> i think we are still seeing enough transmission that it is
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still a smart thing to wear masks. it's more important indoors than outdoors. i think we are still in a place where we need to keep those on. lisa: people are getting sick of covid. i'm wondering how long we have to keep going at some of these same topics again and again at a time when we have prevalence but hospitalizations are going down? when can we stop? >> i think i'm sick of it to. but i think we still have a long ways to go. i do hope that this surge might lead to the last big surge and we might be turning that corner. so there's reason to hope that in the next two or three months we will be back down to where things were before, so no one can ever say for sure. i think we will be living with this at some level for many years, but hopefully not at the
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kind where it's on your new station all the time. jonathan: dr. david doughty, thank you. that will be the ultimate test, whether these daily conversations go away. we've got to know these s we've gotten to know these guys really well they are fantastic. they agree as well. they want to stop coming on. lisa: everybody who works in the medical field is exhausted. and the idea they have to keep repeating wear, be logical, it's just frustrating for everyone. jonathan: the next big test we all start to go inside. tom: to me the next big test is politicians have the vibrancy and courage, we talked to ambassador's about profiles in courage, do they have the
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profiles in courage to step up what seems to be working which is get vaccinated. jonathan: international travel, that's encouraging. i haven't seen a firm data for things to come. we've been told early november. i haven't -- i might be wrong. tom: just as one example i look at the train schedules in italy and they don't go to the end of the year. lisa: i'm looking at train schedules in italy as well. jonathan: you know he's been distracted to the first half of this. tom: three day weekend coming up. i may go below 59th street. jonathan: are you taking tomorrow off? tom: one of those days off. jonathan: when is the three-day weekend coming up? tom: there's a new name for columbus day now or something.
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jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. tom: can we talk newcastle when we come back? jonathan: if you are not into much trouble. tom: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪
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>> inflation isn't to love -- the problem isn't inflation too low. the problem is inflation to high. >> there's elements here that we are dealing with stagflation. >> there's also this idea that higher prices ultimately become a solution to higher prices. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: elude bit of calm before a payrolls -- a little bit of calm before a payrolls storm. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive zero point 8%. we advanced 36 points. a can kick set up downing d.c. -- set up down in


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