tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg October 6, 2021 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
reopen of mainland markets. it seems like the stars on those headlines are aligning for a decent start, if you will. negativity going away. yvonne: with the u.s. avoiding a default, that could move things forward to the upside. you have the whole energy crisis. you have geopolitics. it is complicated, but we saw oil drop substantially on the news of russia. david: a bit more details on that story. let's have a look at how markets are doing. sorry, here we go. [laughter] equity markets, first time in five days. we are on track for substantial gains. we are getting some volume coming across these market. equity futures also pushing higher. currency markets, not much to note. the u.s. 10 year yield pretty much at the highest level incrementally since mid june. you will see it in a couple
seconds here. the big story across the property space, these chinese estates. 75% majority-owned. it is getting taken private. $4 a share to minority shareholders. up 30%, very close to that offer price, if you will. we don't have it, i'm being told. okay. pardon me. yvonne: let me just check it for you here. we were searching double digits on the back of the deal to take it private. does it lead to any signs when it comes to ever grant? -- comes to evergrande. it is up 29% for china estates. the energy crisis is quite interesting as well, we are
seeing risk appetite return. it was also with the u.s. the energy secretary saying they would release some strategic reserves when it comes to petroleum. that could alleviate the crunch, but russia also mentioned they could boost exports. is it a way -- are they using it as a weapon to get approval of that pipeline? a lot of questions there too. david: that is to some extent taking the sting off some of these prices, which frankly moved insanely high this week. at one point, we were up 20% on monday and up as much as 40% before closing down. only up 380%. also the debt ceiling story coming on the offer of mitch mcconnell. the democrats we understand are still waiting for that offer to be given on paper. as we can see, it is falling as
we speak. this is the yields on the u.s. bill that matures on the back of the october deadline. credit default swaps are also on the way up. that is getting priced out. this is basically getting moved down. yvonne: we will see what happens as we get closer to christmas. our asia online editor and oil editor in singapore to talk us through the market moves we have seen. we highlighted some of the drivers of why we are seeing equities rebound across the region today, but how sustainable do you think this is? garfield: i think the big question is the china open tomorrow. it will will be interesting to see the way the debt ceiling dominated the conversation for assets this week. to some extent you could almost say that is a welcome dose of
normality. before covid, this was a completely normal situation. every october you would have the u.s. debating the debt ceiling. here we are again. i think it got some extra attire action this week because -- extra attraction this week because china was out. it is the biggest part of the benchmark indexes. it has so much play in so many ways and we are a long way from a resolution. it is positive, the msci china index in the time china has been off, is close back to flat after some declines. we are getting a fresh start. do we get some fresh good news out of china or do we get some more turmoil from regulatory claims downs or the taiwan situation which president xi will address over the weekend? interesting times indeed
tomorrow. david: that is the question, isn't it? the headlines likely for today is -- asian stocks are on track to gain for the first time in five days. what is the headline tomorrow going to be? are these gains sustainable? garfield: one might be the pboc. in the china press, there was speculation going into the break that we would see a cut. we might get one tomorrow. we might get further moves on that, especially as we are getting close to these crucial credit numbers, which have been disappointing for china recently. you want to see either china signaling that the economy is not as bad as people had feared, or that, if the economy is sagging, that the authorities are going to act to help the
economy and help assets, both by providing some monetary support. from the political side of things, providing a bit of peace and quiet. the best thing we could get tomorrow would be asian stocks, little changed as china has a calm return before payrolls in the u.s. david: that is right, there is that jobs report. i forgot about that. [laughter] adp was yesterday. garfield reynolds. let's talk about energy. the energy crisis in europe. when you look at prices, brent, natural gas is front and center. is that easing? what is the latest? andrew: as you mentioned before, the natural gas crisis ended up closing down after the putin comments. putin did not directly link the nord stream 2 gas pipeline to
his offer of ramping up gas exports to europe, although it is clear that is what he means. he noted the other way russia gets gas to europe through the ukraine was more expensive and pollutive. his deputy prime minister later said quick permitting of nord stream 2 would be a good way of increasing gas exports to europe. at the moment, that pipeline is built. it runs under the baltic. the eu needs to be satisfied that it meets standards around the separation of gas transport and production of sales. the current regulatory timetable means that may not be finally made until next year. putin obviously keen to hurry things up. it had an immediate impact on the gas market and a slow impact on to oil, which was down as
well. yvonne: walk us through that slowing effect, particularly when it comes to oil. we are seeing a lower in the asian session. what is the biggest impact when it comes to crude? andrew: a lot of the strengths we are seeing in crude at the moment is energy crisis related, as people switch to fuel oil and diesel to cope with the shortage of gas and coal. there are various estimates out there, the people saying the energy crises in asia and europe will create an extra 500,000 barrels a day of oil demand, possibly more. any signs that the electricity crunch isn't going to be as severe as anticipated will push down oil. that is what happened. we also had the u.s. indicating they could release crude from its strategic petroleum reserves.
that weighed on prices as well. the question around the energy crunch going forward is how coal is going to be. there is a 70% to 80% chance that brings coal into the northern hemisphere. if that does happen, things could get more severe and we see oil prices ramp back up again. david: andrew, great stuff. let's get it over to new york. su keenan there with an update of your first word news. su: we start with president biden, who plans to meet china's president xi jinping before the end of the year. the plans were announced after talks between the white house national security advisor and his counterpart, the senior chinese foreign policy advisor. a u.s. official called the zurich discussions more substantive than previous meetings between the biden administration and beijing.
democrats in the u.s. meanwhile had signaled that they will accept senate republican leader mitch mcconnell's offer to raise the u.s. debt ceiling into december. the deal would alleviate the immediate risk of a government default, but raises the prospect of yet another political fight near the end of the year. mcconnell said the senate vote could be possible. the ecb said to be studying a new bond buying program to prevent any market turmoil when emergency purchases are phased out next year. the plan would replace the existing crisis tool and complement an older open ended qe scheme that is acquiring $200 billion in debt every month. an ecb spokesperson declined to comment on the report. during china's golden week, national vacation is down by about one third on pre-pandemic levels. this has measures to contain coronavirus outbreaks are
weighing on tourism and spending. the number of trips taken on china's transport networks taken tuesday were 34% below levels seen in 2019. officials advised against unnecessary travel and gatherings over china's most important annual holiday, second only to the lunar new year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan. this is bloomberg. yvonne: still ahead on "bloomberg markets: asia" our exclusive conversation from the bloomberg invest global forum. david: also coming up, plans emerging of a possible meeting between the two presidents, president biden and xi before the end of the year. taiwan also comes under discussion. we discuss the impacts.
>> i hope these actions will cease because there is always the possibility of miscalculation, of miscommunication, and that is dangerous. david: it is dangerous. certainly what you want to avoid with antony blinken speaking in paris. yvonne: talking about the latest military flyby in taiwan, military drills in the u.k. as well. let's talk about politics between china and the u.s. biden and xi set to meet
virtually before the end of the year. angela mancini is partner and head of apac markets at control risks. angela: i think both sides recognize relations are not working well. xi and biden had not spoken in seven months up until the september call. there is a concern on both sides that there is some open channel of communication at the has levels to avoid any risk of accidental confrontation. it is clear the conversations of the lower level of government were not working that well. i think it is a good thing that they are planning some dialogue at the highest level to cover these issues. yvonne: it seems like this meeting in zurich seemed to be quite positive. it has come a long way since these two met in alaska. you had someone speaking days ago about the shortfalls of this phase one trade deal. what does this tell you about
the direction of where u.s.-china policy is going? do you think it is time for the u.s. to play a more tougher approach? angela: i think the u.s. is in a tough position. both sides are. the relations are at a low point. there has been discussion of potential buying, but it has been high levels of issues of climate change. there is no indication of any substantive concessions on anything substantial. i think the u.s. is in a tough position. both sides have a lot of domestic pressure. with respect to the trade announcements, that is not that surprising. the trade war is not working from the u.s. perspective. janet yellen said as much. the decoupling is not happening. the u.s. is investing even more in china than in the past. there is some discussion with
the ambassador saying we will talk about re-coupling. it was interesting, jake sullivan's conversations out of zurich, talking about a more responsible than strategic competition. i think the u.s. in particular recognizes they should be making moves to at least sure up the relations from the point where they have been, but both sides face significant domestic pressure, especially with the u.s. midterm elections coming up. we want to watch for some concrete outcomes, especially the apac summit and g20 as well. david: you described the rivalry and the phrasing they used, you are my adversary but not my enemy. how important was that change in language for you? angela: it is important. the very harsh rhetoric we saw coming out of the last u.s.
administration has frankly been continued through this administration. biden has not quieted the waters. it makes it tough for both sides. the challenge is there are long-term structural differences. it is hard to see where there will be any substantial concessions on key points. i think the real risk is as the u.s. is shoring up a strategy that is defense and diplomatic, there is a real risk of miscalculation or miscommunication. there has been no platform for ongoing formal coming occasion. that is particularly what u.s. businesses are calling for. we have nothing like that now. any open channel of communication and any change in tone is welcome. yvonne: this is coming at a time when china is ratcheting up tensions with taiwan and sending warplanes and drones near their area. are we likely to see military
tensions escalate, and what could go wrong there? angela: i think the biggest risk there is probably accidental confrontation, making mistakes as both sides -- from the u.s. side, the freedom of navigation operations, and the chinese side we have seen. there is recognition that could go quite wrong quite quickly if there is not an open channel of communication to wind things down if there was some accident or miscommunication. the u.s. is not looking too aggressively ratchet up anything militarily. they are walking a fine line. we see that with a lot of statements and actions they have been doing around asia. it is a fine line to walk. david: angela, thank you for your time. angela mancini for singapore control risks partner and head
david: let's have a look at chinese estates, suspended for a couple days against the backdrops of a market that is on the way up anyway. this stock is tearing on the back of this offer. a little bit below the offer price. 30%. to put that into context, the yellow line on this graph coming up has become cheap. here is the offer. let's take a private. $4 a pop. yvonne: let's bring in our china credit editor on this. why go private? >> like a lot of chinese
property firms, it is protecting itself from the evergrande fallout. chinese estates said it could cover losses tied to evergrande group. it started paring back some of that in august. it is just the latest example of another developer trying to safeguard itself against the messy restructuring or any messy default to evergrande. david: how does this fit into their broader narrative? is this a formula we might see more of in markets/ rebecca: potentially, yes. it is one way you can bolster yourself against times of volatility. not all property firms are owned by tycoons of this magnitude and not all will be able to buffer themselves. more broadly, it does feel like this is a turning point for china's developers. the surprise missed by fantasia
had spooked folks about how much cash these property firms had, not least because fantasia reassured investors it had enough liquidity. the weekend before it missed its payment, he made another payment on a private bond. people are spooked. it feels like we are in a different phase now. yvonne: what do we have to look ahead to now? golden week coming to an end, markets reopening tomorrow. rebecca: traders are saying there will be wild swings that we saw over the course of this week amplified by liquidity. the question will be next week whether, as folks return to the desk, that this will be a stabilizing force and more liquidity will even out the off bids we are seeing on the bond, or if it could go the other way and intensify the selloff. we are seeing things stabilize a little bit, but among those weaker rated companies, those single b-rated firms, there was
another selloff going on today. david: are you working tomorrow? [laughter] the open. you have to. [laughter] yvonne: our china credit editor. let's get the latest business flash headlines. an baidu owned video streaming site planned a secondary listing. the u.s. traded company is working within vice chair's -- with investors on the share sale. the listing could take place as soon as the end of this year and raise at least $500 million. one company is moving its headquarters to florida from november 1. the company will permanently close its new york office when it relocates to st. petersburg. it also says it will build an innovation center in the tampa bay region to retain and attract past talent. david: the state of your markets good. if you are a bear, you are on the bench today.
green across the equities screen. the other story that is not too obvious is the dollar. that middle column, you see how that is next. currency markets, whilst the equity market is on the way up, the dollar index on track for the fifth week of gains. u.s. 10 year yields are on track for the seventh week of gains. at 155, 156 on the u.s. 10 year. that is the highest level since mid june. in a lot of ways, equity rebounded because of commodities still pushing that inflation story forward. yvonne: at least you are seeing a reprieve when it comes to the power crunch in europe, but there are still a lot of questions about what the pboc will do when markets reopen tomorrow. how will die digest -- will they digest the latest news on fantasia, a default that they did not need to default on?
>> i'm not surprised to see the most recent retreat and correction we have been going through. >> certainly china has gone through a bit of a correction. >> they are moving consistently in the superpower direction. >> being at least somewhat better diversified geographically. >> you have to change. you have to be agile. >> asset management will be more important in the next decade than in the past. >> we have seen a dramatic growth in allocations to privates. >> the performance with the
reopening, we are seeing a real resurgence of demand. >> it has never been more punitive to hold cash. >> if inflation falls over, both thing falls over. >> there are no answers to it yvonne: top voices speaking on day two of the bloomberg conference. david: we spoke with greg jensen on this topic. they think despite all of these regulatory moves that have real the bees markets, he spoke with stephanie flanders at our invest global summit. >> everybody looks to the equity markets. this is across all -- stephanie: which has performed horribly. >> that is not our perspective. a balanced mix of assets, bonds,
commodities, is up steadily. yes, stocks are down because policymakers made decisions, balancing several goals they have. they have goals for shared prosperity and making sure no company becomes more powerful in the party. they have goals for becoming a world super bowl -- superpower. they are going to be. every once in a while, whether it is 2015 or whatever, they take a step backwards trying to achieve another step towards stability, but i wouldn't extrapolate that to mean they are moving away from building financial markets that can attract capital. every superpower has always had them. their plan is to be a
superpower, and they are moving in that direction. the health of those markets can be shown by the balance between assets has worked more reliable. it is more so in china than the u.s. and europe's. those are the issues, but unquestionably, there's regulatory risk in china. they don't have the rule by law set up we have in the west. they are coming up with the laws today and doing the rule of law, but they don't have a structure for how to deal with these companies, the profitability of these companies. that is happening on the fly and is messy, but if you look at that, a lot of that is price standard. the same asset in china relative
to the u.s. is at a 40% or 45% discount. maybe that should be worse. our point is, you are still better off having a diverse mix of assets with chinese assets. that has always been the case. stephanie: the bond market has certainly done well. the wild card, which could overturn the analysis you've given, is this potential for u.s.-china relations to deteriorate. you've got the chinese authority discouraging chinese companies from listing in the u.s. you headed the comer secretary gina raimondo saying the u.s. needed to rally its allies to slow down china's rate of innovation. this feels like potentially a difficult situation for investors.
>> that's right. it's difficult on both sides. the fact we are moving from a collaborative world to a competitive world between the u.s. and china, nor was it all collaborative before, but it is transitioning. economically and financially, who will win, that is a big question. i don't think it is clear. it is going to be competitive. fully, it won't come toward per se, but it is a competitive situation. that is part of the supply chain story. when china is struggling to meet production demand and they don't have the electricity, and met with at levels that they can't meet the production and their goals on climate, so now you have a constraint hitting
the whole world. those risks flow back and forth between china and the u.s. it is not china that will suffer in terms of financial consequences from those challenges. david: that was graying jensen out of bridgewater speaking with our stephanie. yvonne: it's been a great pipeline of sound we are getting out of the summit. we also spoke with hsbc wealth ceo in asia. we asked him about how his clients are feeling given the crackdown. he said they are cautious given what the market is like, but when it comes to expansion, business and usual -- as usual. >> we are the leading international bank in china. we hold the biggest number of licenses in china. we've been there since our foundation, 156 years.
david: doesn't he have a great lock of hair? let's have a look at how markets are trading. energy is still a big story with russia stepping in with an offer, and we are still higher on u.s. futures. asia is doing well .announcer: -- asia is doing well. the philippines and malaysia, mixed bag across the board. yvonne: we have su keenan in new york. su: antony blinken in the spotlight, criticizing china's actions towards taiwan, saying they are provocative and destabilizing. china has ratcheted up attention, sending scores of warplanes into its air defense
identification zone. lincoln said those sorties could escalate the situation and result in unintended consequences. >> what i hope is these actions will cease because there is always the possibility of miscalculation, miscommunication , and that is dangerous. >> meanwhile, treasury department officials are debating to ask whether they should ask their imf acting director to resign. they designed pressuring bank staff to rule in china's favor. the u.s. has the biggest share of the imf's voting rights. in russia, president putin has intervened in the energy market, offering to stabilize europe's gas crisis and saying russia
could potentially export record volumes of fuel this year. his deputy said quick certification of the nord stream 2 pipe would be one way to boost exports. u.s. natural gas futures plunged on putin's remarks. in canada, prime minister justin trudeau has announced details of a vaccine mandate for federally regulated industries. all employees will have to prove vaccination against covid-19 by the end of october or face being suspended without pay by mid-november. passengers on planes, trains and cruise ships must be vaccinated as of the end of october. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg.
yvonne: part of the reason we are seeing markets rebound, mitch mcconnell has offered a deal to raise the debt ceiling into december, which would alleviate the immediate risk of default, but it came as president biden enlisted corporate leaders to put pressure on gop lawmakers. >> it would lead to a self-inflicted wound that would risk of the marketing came and wiping out retirement savings and costing jobs. david: kathleen hays, or global policy editor, is here with us. this proposal from mitch mcconnell, does that move democrats and republicans to the end game of raising the debt ceiling and not pushing it down the road? kathleen: doesn't kick the can sound familiar? both sides know they need to raise the debt ceiling. both sides assume they will get it done eventually, but for now
because there is a big issue on separating how they go about it, how they get it done -- republicans want to one thing, democrats want another. by october 18, if they don't raise the debt ceiling, that is when the u.s. moves towards default. this is what mitch mcconnell said. this will remove excuses and give the unified democratic government more than enough time to pass standalone debt limit legislation through reconciliation the. let's take the first part. chuck schumer, the democratic leader, hasn't commented, but democrats leaving a meeting with schumer told bloomberg they are ready to accept this short-term debt limit hike proposal, but not agree on reconciliation. reconciliation would be if the democrats use a special process to pass the debt limit, raise the debt ceiling to a certain amount based on 50 democratic
votes. they don't want their fingerprints on it. that is what is going down a. as for reconciliation, schumer has said, it is too cumbersome. mitch mcconnell said, we can streamline the process. we can have it make two weeks instead of four. a lot of people say the democrats don't know what they are going to do. this is mcconnell calling the democrats' bluff. they have to get this done and have to get it done soon. yvonne: we heard from the president in that soundbite. was there anything ceos told republicans that could get them to change their position on the debt ceiling? kathleen: the important part of this isn't what they said. biden is hoping, did you hear the head of j.p. morgan chase and citibank and the president
of the nasdaq saying the same thing? i think republicans know all of this. we should get rid of the debt ceiling to avoid future disputes. we can't wait until the last minute to do this. deena freeman saying, we are starting to see elevated volatility because of uncertainty. we've seen that at the. let's look at the chart. you can see how it spiked up in yields. what if they default? i won't get this thing paid off. it came down quickly when mitch mcconnell made his short tear -- short-term proposal. this is volatility we will see more and more.
david: there we go. we are good across these equity markets so far. let's talk about vaccines now and some new data and research showing immunity provided by the pfizer beyond tech vaccine weakens significantly. as you make your way through several months, it disappears. the study bolsters the case for booster shots. yvonne: let's get to michelle cortez joining us with more. how telling is this report? michelle: we are hearing from israel who has been watching their case rates very closely. some information coming out of qatar that shows the same thing. the first month after the second vaccine, we see a decrease in
infection rates, 77% to 20% after six months, so the amount of protection you have against infection declines. david: it bolsters the case for booster shots. is that what we are talking about or the need for it? >> if the goal is to get the virus under control, which it is , we need booster shots. the conundrum comes in and seems to be effective against hospitalization and death. if you are trying to prevent infection and keeping the virus from getting into people who are vaccinated, you need boosters for every one a. if your goal is to prevent hospitalizations, you need
people who are not vaccinated and get them protected. yvonne: what is the debate on boosters? people are saying, we shouldn't get boosters until people who aren't vaccinated or em countries that are looking for supply -- where is the debate right now? >> it depends on where you are sitting, but the truth of the matter is, what the scientists are saying is eventually not only boosters. it will be the prime shot. everyone will need three doses or more meat -- or maybe four. that will be the norm once we get to the manufacturing capacity we have. in countries with access to the vaccines, we are moving to boosters. eventually everyone will be getting that many shots. david: to clarify, for the world to reach herd immunity, it is
four shots per person? >> i don't know if we are at four shots. definitely three. to protect her population, everyone is at three or maybe four. yvonne: and there is a pill. there's more hope.a quick check of the latest headlines. boeing will unveil its 777 in the next few weeks and is in advanced talks with qatar airways as well as left lonza and singapore airlines. boeing's first new jet is likely to be launched next month and will compete with the airbus a- 350. air asia malaysia will only allow fully vaccinated adult passengers on its flight. on vaccinated people under the age of 18 -- on vaccinated people under the age of 18 can accompany parents.
david: some nice gains coming through in hong kong. hsi is on track for its best state in about seven weeks. before you get truly excited to come it it doesn't take you back to friday. here's a breakdown of what we are seeing. yvonne: let's stick to the positive for now, this on the back of chinese markets reopening tomorrow. this is one of the worst tech players we've seen when it comes to their ipo. we've got plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
yvonne: some breaking lines out of india, reliance retail in a pack to a lamp 7-eleven stores in india, this after we heard that india ditched that deal. david: master franchise agreement, and you are looking at shares of related stocks. reliance in the next hour and when tokyo reopens. carlyle group is talking about a
push to standard died data on data -- standardize data. >> it's not really about any one firm. it's about all of us. the environment is shared by everybody, so we are all trying to make a difference, but it is also good business for us to do this, and i will tell you why. we have different types of data requests coming from different lps. we have different data metrics. none of us can make sense of the data despite our good intentions. it is not a common standard. for us to be able to come together and do this, it only
makes each and every one of us in the industry better. we are all self-interested here. this is a cultural thing. it's a mindset thing. we are trying to drive better performance because if we build better companies, they perform better, and if they perform better, we can do better. >> carlisle itself has gone into many of its initiatives. incentives tied to diversity goals. can you speak to how you are seeing these changes from a business perspective? why is this so important for you to do, and what hasn't med in terms of talent retention?
what has come of this? >> it goes back to what i said. this is cultural. it's a mindset. we cannot talk about esg with respect to diligence. if we are focused on driving a mindset to improve everything we do, i think it drives better decision-making and performance. some examples of that in terms of diversity, we have over 50% of our a um led by women in. over 80% of our employees go through that training. in our portfolio companies, we are putting more diversity on our boards.
this year, 60% of all the board members we've introduced are from diverse backgrounds. we are putting in credit facilities, which are linked to improvement in the esg. we have one company where if they reduced their water usage their cost of capital comes down, or chiral lot -- or carlisle, if we can improve diversity, the cost of borrowing goes down. we have implemented throughout carlisle this is an important element as to whether or not you get promoted or what your bonus is going to be. you've got to have a lot of different actions. yvonne: that was the carlyle group ceo joining us. we continue to see risk assets outperform on the back of hope that potentially we will see a xi and biden virtual call.
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