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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 6, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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recovery cycle. >> we have seen roads accelerate. >> there is growth and productivity growth as well. it does not need to be inflationary. >> there are certainly plenty of demand out there across the board. the issue is can that demand be filled? >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> energy places -- prices are fueling inflation. >> good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg radio. i am jonathan ferro. we have work to do this morning. futures are down 53. we are down 1.25% on the s&p. we are -1.4%. >> this is a different take than we have seen in weeks and weeks. i have futures on corrections down 6%, which is down 4%. but there is a correlated nature.
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all about energy. i just featured alien -- asian lng with francine lacqua. you can go anywhere in the terminal and see yes, john, i go back to for five or six standard deviation moves in that gap area . jonathan: prices are absolutely surging. expectations are higher. what you buy with yields up with the dollar. the dollar is handling comfortably through 94, .4% on the session. it all lines up pretty well this morning. it is the story of today and the story going into your end. tom: going into year end as well,. atlanta gdp. atlanta gdp now has gone to 13% down to 1%. the fx market -- you are absently right, folks. foreign exchanges deepest when the markets is like this. what is jordan rochester doing?
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does he take that a big figure? jonathan: what did the governor of the bank of england do? what does the fed do? it is a divide -- an environment like this. what can they do? tom: going back to general pershing, they will be overcome by events, and you get that feeling, john, i want to speak and standard deviation moves. these are not small moves. four standard deviations is that sweat of august 2007, energy prices are way beyond that. >> lisa, this is a bit of fuel. lisa: this is a distinction between needing a pandemic stimulus before needing to juice growth further. there is a question, when you talk about central banks and other respond to this, do they start to remove some of the accommodation tapering or is this a moved tightening. that is still a distinction that is hampered by supply chain
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disruptions that persist be on the pandemic. jonathan: maybe well into next year. let's line up the price is 40. good morning. equity futures are down 54. we are lighter by about 1.26%. nominal yields are buyer by two base points. 15450. crude has done this for the last month or so. 78.59. there is the dollar strength. euro to dollar is 1.15. within .5%. >> dollar strength is not bode well for this market. that is the takeaway -- marginal growth is coming for the united states, and not from china. where does it come from if you see the united states hampered by some of the frictions we are seeing in the supply chain market? we make it a first read of that at 8:15 a.m.. the expectations are foreign to 30,000 from last month's three
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to 30,000. this foretold some of the weakness in last month's labor market report. the question is, how predictive is this. how much of the supply chain frictions and labor market frictions actually hampering the recovery? at 11 a.m., resident biden is hosting a meeting with business leaders on the debt ceiling debate. for the markets care? they do not. yes, you've seen a bit of a climbing t-bill rates, but it is not that dramatic. there is a sense that we are getting closer to a 2011 style discussion. about the deadline, cnbc -- i do regard october 18 is a deadline. it would be catastrophic to not pay the government's bills, and i fully expect it would cause a recession as well. let's see what those business leaders have essays well. this is the second day of the bloomberg invest conference. we expect to hear from a host of leaders in the field. michael are getting, greg jensen, and jean heinz.
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a lot of bearishness on china. this is compelling. we heard from jonathan fitzpatrick saying, we are not putting money into china right now. others are saying, perhaps it is on investable. jonathan: i always felt like secretary ellen is speaking directly to men. she's looking on the cameron speaking to me. thank you very much. will be catching up with him later. tom: boy does he go after them about their core response ability which is inflation and jobs. he speaks on inflation here, and it is the cliche, but we have real authority. the fed is fighting the last war on inflation. you really have to wonder -- there is a certitude here. it just cannot be the 1970's. the red sox cannot win. we cannot have inflation. jonathan: the red sox did win. tom: five minutes and 36 seconds late. i what might a small tie today
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-- i want my baseball tie today. are we fighting the last war? is disinflationary war or is there something different going on? jonathan: continuously over the last year or so, it is said that if we wait too long, we will have to go quickly when we start. that is the argument and i find it pretty compelling. others do too. tom: they are massively day-to-day dependent, but what do you do with the transitory gas price? jonathan: let's talk about that. christie and from the deutsche bank. what should we do it is a like this? >> way the market is changing, it is not that there is inflation coming in, but we've always talked about these numbers, especially in europe, with gas prices khairat getting yesterday. -- skyrocketing yesterday.
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it is tech flay sherry's deck tech flay sherry -- techfla tionary. it is not just the goal of economic growth but also price stability. we stay at these levels or even go further up, we are not in a situation to increase rates. that is what you would normally do if you see inflationary pressures. it is transitory. we are more than capable of boosting inflation higher, and if your time-of-flight debts fighting wars, it is not an inflationary war, it is a bit inflationary, but it is not bad for the central exit if you get a bit more inflation. the question is, is it too fast now? we need to act. lisa: is tapering tightening? >> yes. you take money that you do not supply to the market anymore. the question is, what is the speed of tapering? do we do it step-by-step or very fast? the markets can react to that.
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that is where the central banks are quite confident to get this done, so i would not say this is the same situation combined as 2013 tapering, no. >> are you a buyer of this weakness in the equity market? >> say again? >> are you a buyer of the weakness we see of the screens this morning? >> cautious in the markets. we have been expecting a downturn and we do nothing it is too early now. we are waiting to go back into the markets. i would say, if you look at the united states for example, i wouldn't be surprised if you see a setback. i would not rule that out because some topics like the way the market in the next days and weeks -- you see energy prices, gas prices in europe, gold prices in china, so the china gdp is maybe weaker than expected. this is the earnings season to start. i was say the growth rate is not the same as we have seen before, and that is because there will
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be some better opportunities over the next days and weeks. tom: we are being buffeted by the temporary -- how do corporations in europe, how do corporations in america, how do corporations in asia adapt to the temporary standard deviation stock of net gas? >> the issue is that companies have contracts with her client so they cannot increase prices as the incoming prices, and that is why the margin shrinking or even going negative. that is why some companies have been saying we are reducing output, and that is weighing on growth. that you have an issue with growth in general because everyone needs energy. that is why it is so important. i would expect the governments are saying what can we do to this? do we take some actions on prices? we've seen that in europe, in spain free sample, the u.k., but
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also the european union. jonathan: great to catch up. what a morning for. the deutsche bank cio. what are the central banks doing this environment? tom: meltzer, timberlake, bernanke, friedman shorts, they wait and wait and wait. i've said that for months. john, do we agree that the standard deviations are on inspected? jonathan: is a big move, tom. gas prices are exploding. there is no real agreement right now. it is how policymakers should respond to that. lisa, how do you respond to supply-side phenomena like we are experiencing right now? if you wait too long, if you wait wait wait, you're going to be late. lisa: one of the issues that are's -- is featuring into this idea is broad-based. it is not just natural gas. we are seeing a dramatic
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movement and natural gas but rises are rising across the board, and this is a supply chain disruption and labor friction. ultimately, how they respond to it is going to if they need to buy $120 million in bonds every month. jonathan: most people will agree on that. we are talking about, given the tone of the conversation to the first, so this program, we have a pretty decent set up. lisa: it is decent, but there are concerns. all of the notes were negative on the ism, even though people were talking about persistent frictions in the market boating poorly for the potential outlook for the labor market. jonathan: equities are getting hammered by about 2%. tom: you are paid per day a check. that's like derek cole getting paid per pitch. that is a beautiful full -- beautiful thing. jonathan: we are negative one point. 2%. from new york city this morning,
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good morning. this is bloomberg. >> it is a strategy shift by the white house. president biden's team is trying to broker a scale back. advisors are weighing the liberal policy priorities against moderate concerns about inflation and tax x. meanwhile, the president is trying to drum up support for the plan in michigan. those of his plan are complicit in america's decline. the fed reserve chair powell has gained support to lead the central bank. more than half of the republicans on the banking committee are backing him. not democratic senator elizabeth ward. the united kingdom is facing a historic surgeon inflationary pressures. one of the elitists -- leading business lobbies warns that they are warning -- ready to raise prices us is necessary.
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it is becoming entrance. facebook ceo mark zuckerberg denies the company puts profit over safety. he is responding for the first time to a series of negative stories about facebook. he says the press conference -- coverage misrepresent their motives. the deutsche bank asset management unit has a greenwashing whistleblower. investigators are investigating deutsche's figures and say they were overblown. they consistently rejected those allegations. little news 24 hours a day powered by more than 24 a journalist and analyst, this is bloomberg.
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>> this is about competitiveness versus complacency. it is about opportunity versus
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decay. it is about leading the world are continuing to let the world passes by, which is literally happening. other countries are speeding up and we are falling behind. we have to reset the pace again. jonathan: the president's latest pits from york city is mooring. good morning, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. wednesday price action. we are negative down 50. a little more than 1% on the s&p. we are down 1.3 on the nasdaq. europe it is much worse. 153 63. you are not seeing a big move in nominal yields it in compared sin -- in comparison to the nominal yield. we are in today. session lows are at -5.6%. we are just about holding on to 150. tom: everybody goes to the fx market which is the deepest market here. they look at emp. we'll have a guest up by later.
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but before we get to joe mathieu, this market is different than the last number of days. you have nasdaq down 8% now on correction. that is beginning to get to where there is tension. i do not see it yet in the fix. needs more prints. jonathan: heavily weighted to the euro. the highest since september 2020. that is a week euro. tom: we are pulling an all-nighter. a xiaomi from boston -- a gentle move from boston joins us after a wonderful victory. joe biden needs a victory badly. he is adjusting for 3.5 trillion to whatever he can get. what is the whatever he can get. >> that is a great question. they will tell you not to pay attention to the top line number, of course, and an interesting column by paul kane and the washington post. i thought i would be quoting oil can boyd, but he is decoding the memo, and a lot of people are looking past the line from the
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memo that was leaked from mansion to schumer. 1.5 trillion -- but it also said in boldfaced print, stop quantitative easing at the federal reserve. what is that about? joe manchin has been pretty concerned about inflation, and there is a question. he knows that congress cannot affect what the fed is doing. quantitative easing is an out. if i can't make good on it, i am in no. they're are great questions about where mansion is on this. never mind the nuclear option which is -- tom: we don't have enough time on this, but let's touch on this and go deeper this afternoon. what is the nuclear option? that is confusing. >> to get rid of the filibuster. for one day, in this case for the debt ceiling. all you need is a majority vote, and then you don't have the filibuster to deal with. it is a carve out. this is been done. mitch mcconnell did this for a
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bunch of trump nominees a couple of years ago. this is sacrosanct. joe biden is not in favor of getting rid of the filibuster, but last night, he said it was a real possibility. the problem is the timeline. damaged that democrats not want to do reckoned that reconciliation. it is a lot of work. we have two weeks of a possible default. could actually pull the trickle? -- trigger? yes, if they get kyrsten sinema on board. all roads lead back to these two centers. lisa: you mentioned the default. democrat some enough time? >> it is one of these two options. can they get really conciliation -- reconciliation? if ted cruz or somebody wants to spoil the party, they could add a bunch of minutes. maybe they don't make it. mistakes happen. when you look at this, less than two weeks away, democrats would have to have a real guarantee from the minority leader, from mitch mcconnell and his rank and file, that they are not going to talk this out. in the meantime, i've been out here for three weeks straight
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document this. immigrants could've handled this at any point over the last month. they knew it was coming. obviously, this is not the preferred route for chuck schumer, and they are going to try again to pin down republicans on this. lisa: is this more of a political liability for republicans, or do we have people blame from both parties as we had to 22? >> if you're part of the part -- party in power, you are part of the blame. resident biden today -- jamie dimon in the oval office, and jb moynahan and represented is from a number of major companies, including nasdaq and aarp according to the washington post, are putting on the pressure. wall street, the business community is not happy with what is going on here. there is no indication that this will move mitch mcconnell from his position right now. he was around in 2011 for the s&p downgrade. he knows what the stakes are, and he is not budged. tom: ties and fancy shell dresses in the oval office and begging. the basic idea, boston guy, is
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that this is tip o'neill. tip o'neill would never have overreached like the democrats have done. now, they are under reaching. they're peeling back. how much? what is this like i say -- zeitgeist say. >> we keep hearing 2.2 is a magic number. no one is balking at that with the exception of some progressives. if you ask the lady who runs the progressive caucus, they will tell you there is not enough money to get done what they want to get done? what limb are you going to cut off? tom: lisa is a mets fan and showed -- and jonathan doesn't care. kiki fernandez was at home plate. it was the edge of boyd evidence, wasn't it? >> the dwight evans and jim wright era, my father was buried
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in the ground with the red sox cap in his casket. he was sitting up last night. i was wondering if i could step is latest tom keene? when you go to bed around here? >> think you so much. greatly appreciated. jon ferro, dwight evans was the iconic right fielder for the red sox, and he was the most magisterial a small throw was from deep right field all the way to third base to get the guy going. that is what we saw last night. that was a moment of that magic when they got judge out at home plate. jonathan: where she this morning? where did she go? fancy doing that to joe mathieu. making joe mathieu get up and missed again. don't miss joel later on weekdays at 5 p.m. we certain on bloomberg radio. tom, let's get back to the market. the s&p 500, down by 1.2%, and the nasdaq futures are off by 1.4%. at the start of this morning, what we have is a european story. baird and mine.
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this is a european story with european gas prices. they are surging and awake they have not surged in the united states, at least this morning. tom: i'm going to go with that, but you are seeing somewhat of a corn is eight -- correlation. it is in asia as well. it is global, i take your point. it is european -- everyone has the focus on your. there is more going on than we have seen in the last five days combined. jonathan: what is interesting about the energy story, lisa, as we are hearing about substitution. substituting gas with crude, for power. that is going to put more pressure on the crude market. brent crude is at -50. lisa: the reaction in the oil market is not the same because of the shift to decarbonizing global economy. how much of that can do to pressure -- frankel, a much does this mean that oil prices are less transitory because this dynamic will persist? jonathan: i can't wait to see what they say in the next news conference as we get closer -- tom: the cardinals of the
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dodgers? jonathan: are you fixated on the baseball? the season is over for the red sox as far as you're concerned. the futures are down 51. we are -1.2%. this is uber. -- this is bluebird. -- this is bloomberg.
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jonathan: this is what they call a messy morning. it is messy out there. s&p 500 futures are negative. 1.5% and the s&p is down 1.4 on the russell. across the board, we are lower, negative. here is a story that is positive. parabolic. gas prices in the u.k.. vertical. tom keene, vertical. up almost 40%. up 50%. here is what we are thinking about at the mormon best moment. high x peck nations of inflation. this is a change from q1 and it is q4. in q1 we had better demand and accelerated demand expectations. drove inflation expectations. this time around, is the fear of prices driving growth. a stronger dollar with yields higher a little bit.
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we will switch to a bull market. not a big move on treasuries. we are up 15363. 2.1%. that has been the story of the last month or so. it is the fear of higher prices and damaging growth, the central bank has responded that. it is overwhelmingly negative for the equity market. if that is the global backdrop, it is positive for the u.s. market. tom: it is the hydrocarbon story. is there a dogs, or is there a
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system where we now have to adapt to a tangible exhaustion is shock. jonathan: it is the piece of a broader puzzle which we have been discussing all your. supply-side. we've been push through this economy, with constrained economies. this time, i will repeat what i said a minute ago. i think it is important. before we are tail about strong demand, there will be higher inflation expectations. that is the good kind of inflation. we are talking about higher inflation and higher prices weighing on growth. that is toxic for risk and toxic for risk much more so if the central bank is a step in prematurely. that is the discussion we are hearing. fears, and not reality, the fears covering the urine. the 10 year real yield. his grinding down. we entrust with greg dayco, and he is the chief u.s. economist at oxford. he has a global feel to it. great, i'm going to do the math this morning. you go ahead and do the stagflation gloom and say wait a minute, we have a -- 11% inflation. we have 3% growth. now it is not the same. yes, we have 5% inflation, but we have 4% growth. should we fear stagflation. >> i do nothing so.
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in the current context, we should not fear stagflation. it -- you mentioned it correctly. in the mid-1970's we had growth contracting and the economy was conducting, and we had elevated inflation. that is not the type of environment we have today. we have strong growth and as john pointed out, that is the key source of inflation today. we have strong demanding growth and we have supply that is gradually adjusting. that need not mean that we cannot have the type of dynamic that john was highlighting where inflation is eroding demand. we have known and we have seen in the united states that if you have slower demand, you have different dynamics, because inflation tentacle. as we look into 2022, we should be in an environment where growth cools and that put some downward pressure on inflation at the same time as supply growth is increasing. tom: is the hydrocarbon move global. i we just speak global for a moment.
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gasoline and the united is up 2% from where was to hours ago. is it an exogenous idea we can ignore, or do we have to folded into recalibration? >> it is very much a factor. the original shock may have been exogenous in terms word is coming from, but we are an environment where growth expectations have been a key driver in this rise in oil prices, this rising gasoline prices. as you noted, we have seen a series of different supply shocks one after the other, putting up her pressure on prices. what is key is how the economy around the world reacts to this environment? it is a decent for knives global recovery. these types of price shocks around the world have different effects on economic activity around the world. and the united states, i am not excessively concerned about the
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rise in oil prices so far. i thinking europe, for instance, you have to be a bit more concerned about the potential downside and erosion of growth from these higher prices and these higher oil prices. lisa: when you talk about de-synchronize growth across the world, i'm wondering about the transmission mechanism of slower growth, and saying china. the united states economy looks like it has quite a bit of momentum. oxford economics cut the china growth forecast for the fourth quarter to 6.6 percent and they downgraded expert -- expectations. how does this lead into weaker growth in united states? >> i think the key thing, as we look into 2022 on a global basis, is really the decent criticized best decent rise nature. we have downgraded our forecast for china and some of the real estate pressures that we've been talking about for the last couple of weeks behind that. there is also the question as to how much further credit impulse
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we will see in china over the next year. the key question, really, for the niceties, is how much of a drag is that for global recovery? the nice taste tends to be focused on internal demand, but we had no a lot of the internal demand is fed by greater import, so if there are slowdowns around the world that affect the ability to serve that demand, that can become a key constraint. we have seen it, and turns of vehicle sales which have plunged to a degree that was comparable to recession levels, and that is not because there is not enough demand. that is because there's not enough supply. the supply shocks can have restraint effects on economic activity, including in the united states, which tends to be seen as a very close economy. >> you have a good look for the united states economy going forward. a good prognostication. but there is a question about the tr that we keep making fun of. the transitory idea that disrupt supply chains and makes prices go up and put a crimp in growth
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in the united states. when do supply chain constraints become something more the transitory and something that actually weighs down your expectations further? >> that is a key question. people tend to think that transitory means it will only last a short while. we have been in the camp of saying that a lot of the supply chain issues are going to be persistent and somewhat sticky, leading to a stickiness and inflation. that is a better way of perceiving it. it is not like any of these supply chain issues are going to dissipate overnight. we have had a number of shocks around the world that have affected supply chains. they range from covert to non-cofactors. in the end, what is likely to happen is that some of the supply chains are going to dissipate over time. they will allow for greater growth in terms of demand. they will not generate as much inflation. we expect the inflation outlook in the united states to fall from core inflation being above three and a half to 4% to the
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middle port -- part of 2022 to gradually decline to 3% but remain quite high from a historical perspective. tom: i want to go micro. the gdp is down 1.33%. it is gone from 13% to 1.3% through the decline of this boom economy. how do you adjust for q4 now? what is your q4 statistic? what's we have a cute alert -- what is your q4 alert. >> we have a gdp of around 1.2%. that is only about a quarter of the pace that we saw in the first half of this year. in the fourth quarter, we saw gdp growth just shy of 4% annualized. that is a slight acceleration as there is less of a covert fear factor in the fourth quarter, at least at the start of the quarter, but you still have supply chain issues which are constraining economic activity. much less physical -- fiscal
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impulse than earlier. tom: thank you. that phrase is just shy -- i think we will hear a lot of that. you have news in the u.k.. jonathan: boris johnson is addressing the conservative conference. quote, referencing margaret thatcher, the former private -- prime minister. margaret thatcher would not of seen the meteorite. it is right that this party should rise to the challenge. he is talking about public finances and the big hole that he things we need to fill. tom: it is there in every nation. paying for pandemic, i get it. the labour party would say, you can grow your way out of it with productivity and enthusiasm, just like the progressives and liberals in america are suggesting with president biden. it is something that gets you reelected within conservative confines. the democrats are making a point of same. lisa: they are saying we need to grow. i do wonder if the idea of
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conservative financial politics with liberal immigration system it -- i was struck by boris johnson the truck shortages. you're going to offer up your services as drivers, and you're ready to go. he will not let tom keene join because they are going to limit immigration still. jonathan: tom will come in. helen you want to do that for, tom? tom: from here to calais. jonathan: the primacy of the u.k., boris johnson, addressing the conservative party conference. architecture would not of ignored the impact of finances. tom: what is the body language? jonathan: they are with him. it is the conservative party conference. tom: if you're in the republican convention, you have six or 7 -- jonathan: i was joking. i think they would be clapping if they could hear. there claps. please clap. >> unemployment.
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jonathan: there we go, the primacy of the u.k.. -- prime minister of the u.k.. tom: if i went there, it would be in hr violation. jonathan: come on. be respectful of the office of the primacy. futures are down 52. we are negative one .2% on the s&p 500. we did a market check, so let's move on. 1.5 397 for the yields. everyone is half-asleep. the dollars at 1.1537. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. >> with first word news, brinkmanship is on capitol hill bringing the united states closer to a catastrophic default. democrats and republicans must
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decide in the next day or two how far to take their deadlock over the debt limit. senate republicans plan to bulk another, credit effort to raise limit. the former united nations ambassador nikki haley is setting the tone for a possible presidential race in a speech at the reagan library in california. she urged republicans to return to their roots. at the same time, haley defended president trump and promised to consult with him on the 2024 race. in hong kong, there were plans to develop the border with china. more than 900,000 homes will be built to ease a housing crisis that has led to social unrest. they want to develop the area with intelligence and technology. tesco plans to buy back shares to boost his pop debts profit ability. his lackluster stock performance -- tesco's price has trailed private equity firms as they take aims and circle that super markets.
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the buyback will begin this month. snap chat with the biggest winner among rival apps when facebook went dark. it had its worst outage in years on monday. snap chat experience 23% boost on app. at the same time, telegram and signal record a big usage. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg.
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jonathan: if you wanted a quiet start of the morning, you are not getting one.
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the morning. your equity market is -55 on the s&p. we are down by 1.26% on the nasdaq. we are down 1.5% on the market yields. we are at 1.5 415. we are behaving ourselves. crude is at 78.55. down about half a percent. the big moves have been a net gas in europe. absently surging. putting some weight on the euro. euros is at 153. the u.s. dollar is really strong this money. tom: we have to get to a really important conversation. you mentioned vertically earlier, and that his leg which i do not want to use, except you are right. it is on the edge of your -- vertical. what is this due to commodity players? people hedging? people who have to cover their heads? people who have some form of intelligent, particular -- protectable arbitrage. jonathan: it is pretty
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well-known. lisa, what was it up? let us be clear here. people will be suffering. some people have been bullish and they are doing well. tom: we will have more on that as a brakes. that is after a bit of trade. right now, we go intelligent on this pandemic. we are going to do this with a doctor who is very different. johns hopkins associate professor for medicine, but in a younger career, a massive southern hemisphere study, nation to nation, about what is going on. something you know about. l tour, which was a cholera epidemic. i was modestly aware of in my undergraduate years. the early 1960's all the way through the 70's. out of indonesia, cholera. it was ugly and persistent. they did not have facebook or social media back then to fan a horrific cholera epidemic. what has social done to us?
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>> social has brought us misinformation. people do not know who to believe, what to believe, where to go for good information. there is a crisis of misinformation. people are making poor decisions. poor decisions drive infection. tom: is it as simple as politicians with the new social media and the speed of its messaging, working at a slower and more traditional speed? >> that is part of it. we are much more conservative in our messaging that comes from our policy outlooks. the fact that politicians have also made science political has also fueled part of the misinformation, and that has spread like wildfire through entities such as facebook. >> how successful have these vaccine mandates from corporations been in terms of getting vaccinated and accelerating the push to the end of the pandemic? >> i think the vaccine mandates reassure individuals that this is the right course of action.
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it has given a little knowledge, but it has also caused a divided workforce. we've seen hospitals, where, the majority of the staff have resigned because they were anti-vaxxers. vaccine mandates and substitutions may have the opposite effect and divine workforce. lisa: can you elaborate on that? the idea that nurses did not want to get the vaccine. what does this do for the u.s. health care system, if even members of the practice will not believe the science that health officials and the nations are putting out there. >> is a -- it is a bit of a balancing act between fear and science. here is difficult overcome. it just shows that fear around faxing hesitancy and side effects, and the fear around long-term consequences is very real. the scientific community public
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health professionals still have a way to go to address that fear. tom: eight year on or two years on, and i am talking about meningitis, what happens in cold weather, supposed to be good. can you make a statement that cold weather diminishes the virulence of covid? >> that statement is not true. there is no evidence that cold weather diminishes the virulence of covid. in fact, cold weather changes behavior. individuals want to be indoors and they are likely to share how drinks and being close contact. it is more likely to transfer the virus. tom: there are all these confusions about the virus as well. one of the things we are hearing, dr., we are hearing that the virus will be permanent and will diminish over time down to some form of common cold. is that your study? >> potentially. that is a theory that is out there.
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covid -- coronavirus is very similar to what we have seen with influenza. it continues to evolve, change, and we continue to produce vaccines to combat it. we now come to an influx where influenza is seasonal and comes frequently. we do not know for sure if that will be the story with covid. covid has been a fearful enemy. it has evolved and passed our expectations. lisa: dr., we have been talking about supply change disruptions and labor markets shortages. we've been talking about from an economic perspective. i'm a health perspective, how much you see driven by fear of getting coronavirus or potentially, needing to stay home because of children or other factors. from a scientific perspective, how much has the ongoing pandemic really hamper the recovery on an ongoing basis more than people of understood? >> let me ask for clarification, do you mean a supply chain for
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health-care workers? lisa: broader supplies to the overall economy. supplies of basic goods have been hampered because the shipping is not in a normal range. people have not been able to get off the sea, and there is been a disruption in normal transport because of covid. >> that is actually in area for further study. it is unclear to public health professionals really what it is that is driving supply chain crises, given that many industries have found ways to continue business as normal. they've evolved and innovated zoom based working. one thing that may factor into this is the huge disparity between covid. industrial workers, rural committees, have been affected by the viruses. that is more significant than those in urban communities are higher levels of education.
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this is the interplay between the effect of covid and the health disparity. those individuals that were marginalized in society are responsible at the core of our supply chain issues, because they are the workers that are working in factories. jonathan: a good point, and we appreciate your time. as always, we are speaking a change of behavior for the first time yesterday. tom keene had preface inside. -- we had breakfast inside. it was the first time and how long? tom: there is a raging debate in new york about the safety of it. back to the market, i am beginning to see things click in with better quotes from early morning. 23.81 -- i'm going to suggest than market, as we see it, mastec at -1.5%. i am not judging anything, i am saying that today is different from what we have seen the last couple of days.
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jonathan: down 55 on the s&p. 1.54 on 10 year yields. the dollar is stronger at 1.1539. tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro -- this is bloomberg surveillance.
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♪ >> to be buying into the fed's inflation dismissal. >> you really haven't seen growth accelerated in the second half of the year. >> if you have wage growth and productivity growth as well, it doesn't need to be inflationary. >> you see demand pretty much across the board. the issue is can that be fulfilled. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a bit of risk aversion this wednesday. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this wednesday, futures -53, down on the s&p 1.2 percent. on the nasdaq, down 1.4%. tom: it is moving out there. you go to the currency dynamics as well.

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