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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  October 5, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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will remain elevated. >> for either the economy employing mint is important. >> you have to still worry about the service sector in those areas connected to travel and leisure. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: big tech on sale. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. your equity market, futures bounce back up 4/10 of 1%. we need to discuss the damage to the index level and the damage done to big tech. lisa: you have to partition it -- tom: tech there is some real damage. we are back to support, by on the depth. we will find out where it is this morning.
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jonathan: the moves on apple, facebook, amazon. apple down 11%. amazon and facebook about 15% for the highs. tom: these are real moves. i will tell this again, if not percentage moves it standard deviation moves. it's a bigger move i will go with that. a standard deviation basis around 11% on big tech is contained, it's sitting on one of the moving averages i look at. jonathan: the latest just occasional years blame the bond market. two fridays ago, 1.45. tens this morning 1.49. it hasn't seemed a big move over the last week to justify this gap we've seen in the s&p 500. that in the last 24 hours is felt like a lazy story. lisa: i think it's overly simplistic where there unique stories for each one. they will have delays on some other apple products, facebook
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with the outage yesterday and then amazon with the pressures from increased wages paid a whole host of different pressures. my question is how much until you get this correction visits are leading into sentiment around equities. at one point is it a buy the dip moment ended one point is it feed into increasing pessimism for investors. jonathan: wasn't that a lovely six hours yesterday, just nice, take a break. lisa: are you on facebook? jonathan: we can talk about it another time. tom: it's piece volumes about our modern age. also volumes that were thrown up , the headlines that were thrown up. organic revenue doing better than what was estimated. this is the beginning of what i've been talking about for two weeks which everybody is focused on margins.
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if revenues pick up, that helps margins. jonathan: eps coming in it 179. the raise and now the fourth-year organic revenue plus 8% they had seen plus six. >> it highlights how each company that has unique story. how do investors get ahead of this and what is priced in. tom: apple down 11%, pepsi down 5% or 6%. jonathan: futures up 17 on the s&p. i've given up on you, tom. let's move. ok. tom: i'm not focused jonathan: i can tell. negative there is little more than a 10th of 1%. crude, 77.84.
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approaching the 78 handle on crude. lisa: we are the highest levels since 2014, how much more do we have to go, it's really putting some of the frictions in the market will be highlighted by the economic data. we are going to be getting a trade deficit. it's near to all-time high in terms of a trade deficit, this is the u.s. still wants stuff despite the anger china. delays keep on increasing, a do we see an increasing deepening in trade balance as we ramp up negotiations with china. we also get ism services sector data. how much does this bleed into a weakening picture which is what is expected for the services sector. at 10:00 a.m. talking about facebook. facebook's whistleblower is planning to testify to a senate subcommittee. here's my question bread facebook shares up more than 50% year today. they had a bad day and the
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outages and gave jon ferro a break. however, what is going to happen on a regulatory sample. we hear this again and again, they talk about regulating big tech more. what actions have we seen around them. also just to wrap it up with the first day of the bloomberg best conference. the key question is how do you invest at such a parallel time in terms of valuations and uncertainty given the fact you have over the past month bonds and stocks selling often tandem. this is a big question and a conundrum, an alternative for investors. and john rogers. that big question of is an opportunity for them to get higher fees. it's very hard to outperform. >> what a lineup. i figured out why you are distracted. yankees and red sox. it makes sense now.
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tom: if you're the only one on the planet distracted by ac malan and see what ac malan will do, it's an incredibly important game. all that matters is bucky dent is not playing. the only good sign red sox have. tom: why does it's -- jonathan: why does it start so late? tom: my whole plan today -- don't get me going. dumbest thing they are doing, i cannot convey how stupid it is to have the important parts of the game on at 10:30 and 11:00 and john, at midnight. jonathan: i agree. global head of research joins us now from just outside of sydney. eric, let's start with this bond market. your message, of the message from u.s. yields is not entirely validate the renewed inflation. >> good morning everybody.
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i think you highlighted it earlier, a 10 year yields over the last couple of weeks have been remarkably stable even with the increase in oil price. i think that tells us is not the long-term part of the yield curve that potentially vulnerable, we've been arguing short-term interest rates we need to go higher to reflect a higher probability of fed rate hikes and i think that's what's being reflected in terms of the cyclical narrative. you have not seen an increase in inflation expectations of last few weeks. even with that increase in oil prices, that meant death that was extremely important to keeping at stable. as you mentioned earlier i don't think interest rates are the cause of the uncertainty or the risk in the equity market. >> there's a question of whether yields have it right or if they are little too sanguine. it always has been a temporary move, there has been this virtuous cycle for the oil bulls
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and the oil market where production comes back online and then prices go back down. is this time different? >> i do not know if i would say it is different. what i think is interesting is in the first part of the year when we had a big increase in interest rates was also happening at the same time is a big increase in commodity prices and inflation expectations. so it's a very consistent correlation with the reflation narrative. what's happening this time is maybe more troubling witches oil prices higher, a long-term interest rate stable. maybe it's staying -- saying to us the increase might be a negative for consumer demand. i think that's possibly with the equity market is missing out. tom: standard chartered bank has a position in southeast asia. i love your slogan, here for good always.
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that speaks volumes about the standard charter approach. i want to know if you can confirm the asian bull case. we have selective guests saying forget the gloom in the bowl argument will be led out of asia . do you by the thesis? >> we might see southeast asian story. large parts of asia as well. let me give you a couple of interesting examples. even with the economic momentum in china over the last couple of months, exports out of korea, indonesia, out of singapore have been extremely resilient. we talked about the u.s. trade deficit and this is even with a number of these economies still struggling to get out of lockdown. i think they potentially under appreciate the story for the rest of this year and into early next year with that economic recovery story in large parts of
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asia. >> do you see them moving away from the zero covid elimination strategy. do you see them moving away? >> slowly is the honest answer. we seen a number of countries and economies around the world move away from the covid strategy. in a shape than a little more hesitant. we seen a few more countries move in that direction. singapore is moving in that direction. there are a number of countries where there lockdowns are having a big impact on supply chains. vietnam is a classic example. we think the growth potential is enormous, but the economic lockdown at the moment are slowing or delaying fat. jonathan: great to catch up. what do you call australia right now? that's what i call it. tom: i called it -- a surveillance correction.
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i call it the people's republic of massachusetts. jonathan: that's right. tom: seven republicans and everett said it's the people's republic of cambridge. you have to go more narrow. jonathan: on a very serious note, there is a zero covid strategy in australia. are they going to move away from that? tom: new zealand last night said yes they are. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, donovan ferro. futures up 15 on the s&p advancing a third of 1%. from new york city this morning, good morning. on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.
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facebook lends a global power service outage. facebook, instagram and whatsapp were blind for hours. more than 2.7 billion people rely on them to communicate, do business. a facebook whistleblower is set to share what she calls the frightening truth with the senate committee today. the plants testify the social network misled the public and shareholders about the harmful effect of its platform. democrats may have to live with a less generous expansion then they wanted. they may have to scale back the cost of the economic agenda from $3.5 trillion to $2 trillion. that's cutting the cost of every program including the ones to state and local taxes known as
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salt. vladimir putin has public goods miss climate change for years and is now prodding officials to take the threats the country's economy more seriously. j.p. morgan chase is rolling out new measures to prevent coronavirus infections. the bank's band business, travel. they will also face high payroll deductions to cover the cost of testing. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the bottom line is this
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chamber must pass legislation to avoid a default. accordingly i will soon file cloture on the proposal that will suspend the debt limit until december of 2022. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. here's the price action. 16 points on the s&p, up by 4/10 of 1%. a little bounce on the s&p 500. we are down from your previous high on the s&p. it's a draw down it's ugly out there. up a basis point per the fx market euro weaker 116 -- 1.1601. he did not care about this market today. he cares about one thing. it is red sox yankees. tom: this is all there is to it. we've already had a surveillance correction this morning.
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al from new jersey called in and said -- i have no idea lisa: have you ever worn that hat before? jonathan: are you implying it does not fit? lisa: carry on. tom: your standard red sox hat. we go to annmarie hordern. let's go to the board and explain what matters today. this is bill white on wpi yaks. the older will not get it, it's a home run. a three run home run. the yankees now lead it by a score of 3-2. when you see tonight? >> i think it's at the edge for the pictures. i cannot take it seriously with
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his hat on. i will be wearing my yankees collaborate jacket. and i think garrett cole is good to be starting. did you see that play when he ran into the dugout, he was injured after that. i'm confident. jonathan: we might have to pivot to something serious on the back of this. tom: it's staying on until they win. jonathan: it could be a while. going to wear that for next year. tom: for those worldwide, it goes back to 1967, all of my youth the red sox always lost. jonathan: i appreciate the romance of the moment. tom: talk about washington. jonathan: i plan to do that. talking to our washington
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correspondent about washington. press conference of the president in last 24 hours. are the republicans listening? >> they are not at all. mitch mcconnell sent a letter prior to that speech and it just game theory in washington regarding the debt ceiling. it's the same place we have been. what's nerve-racking is if the democrats are the one to blinken they have to go through this reconciliation process they have now 13 days to do so to meet the secretaries x state of october 18. that's what so scary. senator schumer post-e cloture. the problem is he doesn't have their republican votes to do anything with it. lisa: yesterday wendy had a great point. tell me one detail from the program other than we will help the children and families and help provide health care. what are the details they are haggling over? can we get our hands on the meat here? >> it's a great question.
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it's hard to think about exactly what the details are or the timeline because they are still negotiating what will be acceptable on the top line. the president met with progresses in a virtual meeting and what we learned is that top line will be anywhere from 1.9, a 2.2 trillion dollars. and then you start filling it in. it potentially could be child tax credits, universal pre-k and what they might do is shorten the time. under reconciliation you can even have a budget that goes past 10 years energy -- anyway. some of these may go to five years. there were a number of climate initiatives to boost the grid, to move towards greener infrastructure in the heart infrastructure package. but still, billions not included in that. once they get this top line figured then they will be haggling over who gets what.
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you have senator joe manchin from west virginia, he wants subsidies to continue for fossil fuel companies and then you have kyrsten sinema who was a green party candidate who is not pushing for -- there will be a ton of dispute about what goes in. speaker pelosi says october 31 so halloween is when she wants to try and bring heart infrastructure to the floor. now we know that it's lynched reconciliation at the time get it done. >> timelines and deadlines in washington. annmarie hordern. lisa, months end, is that really it? you are not convinced. lisa: what she was just saying is important for their trying to get the number done and then fill in the details. the details are the important
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thing, the thing they can try and sell. it's basically almost political malpractice to not talk about the details a lot of people agree upon because those details are controversial within the same party. can you actually create something concrete with this? can you imagine that. jonathan: great feedback. will you be able to tell us about the 1986 world series? tom: let me tell you about it. the only time in my modern life i've asked for an autograph was at the third base dugout of fenway park for game three and 86. i was standing with roger angel who is still with us, very elderly. you could see his knees were shaking, of the ball went into home plate, lenny dykstra hit
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the ball, it went over everett. they lost sight of the ball in the vicinity of nova scotia. >> all of this is a big buildup. the mets won. jonathan: has it happened since? lisa: [laughter] i will check that. i tried to blank it out. jonathan: i'm get a let you get away with that. tom: just so you know, alisa asked with the timeline was. the timeline is the red sox have to get the fifth inning. jonathan: are you serious the wearing that the whole show? tom: why not just keep it going. jonathan: you can write in and vote what do you think if you should keep it on for the show. up 16 on the s&p.
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it's a bounce in the equity markets. lisa: 1986 was the last time. jonathan: i can see how the show is going to go today. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: not quite ready to call this turnaround tuesday. equity futures bounced by third of 1% on the s&p. five percentage points lower from the high on the s&p. that's the index level damage. with talk about a stock level damage. for the likes of amazon, apple and facebook. bouncing back from a six-day losing streak. that has its own concerns. think about the damage done here. amazon is down about 15% from a recent high paid no negative on the year. apple is down 11%. that is real damage for the mega caps. i think it's a little bit too simplistic and perhaps analytically lazy right now.
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this morning, switch up on the board. your 10 year yield. they are not big moves over the last few weeks for this bond market from two weeks ago. this something else going on we need to discuss. >> i think for a certain percentage of the public is about guesstimating american gdp. >> yields higher by basis point or two. 30's up basis point. tom: yield curve goes nowhere. good morning. let me cut to the chase. if you amended your 12 on forward growth on america's economy.
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>> we are very likely to see a noticeable slowdown in the back half of the year. we haven't necessarily revived this, but i think it's reflecting more of the consensus view at this point because many have revised lower their latter expectations going forward into 2022. i think in part you will see a slightly reduced equity level on the part of the consumer but also we will see much reduced footprint from the federal government, as a lot of that stimulus wanes, the growth profile will grow down to a range of three to four. very much in line with pre-pandemic. tom: you were acclaimed for the micro the macro. from sector to service sector dynamics, better economy of service sector growth. >> we have seen consumers resort
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back to a more normal or pre-pandemic basket of goods and services shifting a lot of that activity, those dollars from those goods purchases are now allowed to return to the marketplace. however going forward there still are risks, there are health concerns, a lingering health impacts. the delta variant will play serious role and it may be capping service activity in the latter half of this year particular as it enters flu season and potentially more mandates and safety protocols, and play. there certainly are a number of risks beyond the economics with the health concerns. lisa: does the word stagflation trigger you? >> it is certainly a concern. when we talk about stagflation, it's essentially a combination of rising prices and a slower economy which describes what we
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expect in the latter half of the year. prices are continuing to rise. we don't see any near-term expectant for that and get growth is likely to be about half of what we saw at the start of the year. it's a very real concern and for consumers already struggling, rising prices, goods and services cost going higher. now they are faced with the potential slower economy. lisa: this goes to something eric was saying earlier, it's concerning to see oil prices going up and bond yields not responding. how much does it speak to what you're talking about. but going forward, one year, two year, three years out. something that looks very different even if not quite a recession. >> the market seems to be buying
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into the fed inflation rhetoric. the fed tells us inflation is elevated but not a concern. that they will recalibrate as the supply chains move out. you will see it fall down to a more normal 2% average target. i think the fed will have a difficult time with this language for much longer. they might lose a handle on inflation expectations if you don't see some of the translated to reality. particularly from a waste standpoint. that's good to be the component the fed will have a difficult time controlling. prices may rise temporarily because of disruption. that will come down eventually when we return balance to the marketplace. wage pressure tends to be sticky or longer-lasting brain these have been reflecting artificial policy measures distorting the structural balance in the labor markets. they have proven larger than
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expected but are likely to be more permanent in nature. tom: we have the trade balance today as lisa mentioned. it's now 70 gazillion, export imports, the port of los angeles, the port of long beach and how difficult it is to guess right now. >> all of these supply chain disruptions continue to impact the macro picture. it's not really on the radar. not many people are sensitive to the trade balance. the bigger focus will be the ism. going back to the previous conversation. tom: lindsay is a rockstar star at the microanalysis, so we will go, looks to the partial differential on the back end of the core equation. it is our mystery about trade
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export deficiency or an important deficiency. >> important deficiency. using demand outpacing the available supply in the marketplace pre-even when it comes to the mastic producers trying to fulfill demand, if they are requiring parts or components that are produced overseas, then we are a global integrated marketplace. with much of the developing world 1, 2 or even three steps behind getting production back online and returning to a normal level of output. this will have a sniffing lee negative impact on the producer's ability to meet that demand in the marketplace. it's outpacing the current market availability. lisa: i do want to turn to the federal reserve on a political level. is the internal oversight
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committee. it's looking at some of the trade made by richard clarida. all of these ideas keep coming out, that they may transactions that now are raising the spotlight on the fed in terms of personal interest. how much does this damage their credibility, how much risk in terms of composition of the fed heading into a very uncertain 2022. >> it will be on the shoulders of the chairman to make to the integrity of the federal reserve is maintained and that they do maintain this presence of autonomy separate from the government. we see a lot of integrated activities from former federal reserve chairman janet yellen, now treasury secretary yellen. there are a number of issues aside from individual trading that have raised some concern about the federal reserve's anonymity. it's really going to be a
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strategy of messaging on part of the chairman at this point. jonathan: there will be some big changes for sure. some massive changes perhaps. >> if you look at a lot of investor surveys, increasingly a risk factor is fed policy not because of uncertainty, but in -- uncertainty of who will be on the fomc. it's also important about what this does to jay powell in the eyes of president biden. i don't know, what will happen. >> we have a deadline for that. just asking. some headlines from j&j, submitting for a covid booster shot. the booster increased protection to 94%. j&j submitting data to support a
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covid booster shot. >> there it is. i'm scheduled i believe october 19. i don't think it's j&j, maybe pfizer. a set of better news here. better cases data. scientists are clicking in, they have to do the vera logical work. we are now look just clicking in to the successful work we were massively frustrated about three months ago. >> d.c. jp morgan yesterday. jp morgan telling anyone in the front office unvaccinated employees face higher payroll deductions to cover the cost of testing and health insurance starting next year and if you're not vaccinated, you won't be employed by jp morgan if your new employee and if you are current, you cannot go and meet
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clients. tom: this is a core reason i have an optimistic cast on lisa's gloom. it's as simple as this. companies are acting. united airlines, jp morgan, different strategies, same goal. lisa: i'm not pessimistic about the pandemic ending, it will end. there is an issue of what the underlying on the economy are praying -- underlines on the economy are. jonathan: futures up 4/10 of 1%. yields higher by a couple of basis points. up next on those booster shots, johns hopkins center for health security. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news. shares of facebook rebounding
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today after the global outage yesterday sent the stocks falling. the company blames its network integration. it took down facebook, instagram and whatsapp. senate democrat leader chuck schumer plans to vote this week on legislation to suspend the debt ceiling but republicans have vowed to block it. that raises questions about whether congress can avert this later this month. mitch mcconnell says, kratz can do it on their own by using the reconciliation process which would require a simple majority vote. the federal reserve's internal watchdog watches investigation should trading activity by senior central bank officials. this after revelations of transactions in 2020. trading as much as $5 million out of the bond fund one day before the fed chair issued a
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statement on corporate policy action. in manhattan, -- a fallen to the third -- for the third quarter. that's the most for any quarter dating all the way back to 1989. lester's covid discount are now -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is likely the worst of the delta wave in the united states is behind us.
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in certain places it is still horrifically bad. we could well be on a pretty steady downward trajectory. jonathan: joshua there johns hopkins. from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we advance by a third of 1% rate outside of that, yields high by two basis points. break again at 1.16. -2/10 of 1% per wti crude with a 78 handle. the highest since 2014. now 78. tom: i am brent focused, but i've got to admit the motion of american oil price lower would really be something. i think you are really on top of this with the whole transatlantic thing.
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we peeked out recently at 170 cases. i usually don't look at cases, we come back down, from 1.70 down to 1.20. we have to get back to 50,000. we have a long way to go to get the cases back with some form of society. >> we are heading in the right direction and that's encouraging. the last several months about booster shots. the lead paragraph, johnson & johnson asking the fda for -- to authorize a second dose of its covid vaccine for adults after his study showed it provided strong protection against infection and severe disease. let's bring in the johns hopkins center for how security senior scholar. we used to lead with protection against infection now it's protection against severe cases. can you walk me through what
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these vaccines are actually good at? >> what we've seen is it is tremendously effective against preventing severe disease, hospitalization and death. at the beginning of the pandemic we talked about flattening the curve. there was a curve and a line through it. that line was hospital capacity. that was the immediate concern, was trying to remove the ability of the virus to hospitalize and kill people. that's a metric that really matters when it comes to vaccines. early on we saw tremendous data showing high effectiveness even against symptomatic infections. something we did not expect. people ran with that number. but that was a most always expected to fall and was a product of the fact that those trials were done when there wasn't a more contagious variant and when people were not doing things without masks. the number fell, but what we see is we have very strong protection against what matters
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and that's with the primary goal was of these vaccines. jonathan: do you think we have a messaging problem and how much damage do you think it's doing? >> the whole pandemic can be thought of as a poor messaging problem. we've seen a lot of public health guidance that doesn't really make it into the public psyche in a way that's actionable and that's been a problem. because people don't understand that this is a virus that's not going anywhere, it's establishing itself in the human population. many people have this idea that a vaccine is somehow a bug zapper or a force field around you, not something meant to make disease that you get postvaccination something that's milder. so in general i think public health communication has to be revamped after this pandemic because so much of it went the wrong way. we made mistakes that were easy to forecast that would actually happen based on how nebulous guidance has been.
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lisa: how much does this have to do with the fact there is confusion in the health data with a fast-moving pandemic and a lot of unknowns. you talk about infection versus getting very ill. this does matter from a community health perspective in terms of transmission. how much are we getting closer to this idea we can take off our masks and having normal society even if we have vaccines if they don't necessarily prevent infection? >> the issue has to be when we come to a point where this becomes intolerable risk. covid-19 is going to become one of our seasonal respiratory viruses. transmission is going to fall eventually but it will rise again maybe when it gets colder. so there is going to be a time where people say it's not a big deal anymore because they know they are protected against serious disease, just like people are with influenza. we have antivirals coming from pulpit 19.
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but there will be a risk perception change in the country and the world about this becoming a much more manageable disease. there is going to be transmission, there will always be a baseline number. for some people that might be too much and they will continue to wear masks in crowded places and continue to be more cognizant of where other people are when they are in public transportation. for others it won't be that way. there won't be an easy way to know if people fall -- where people will fall on that spectrum. tom: when we get a children's vaccine, i believe five to 11, do masks finally go away? >> it makes it a lot easier. when you will probably see is local areas basing those decisions and those recommendations on local transmission dynamics. is this an indoor place, is it something where everybody is vaccinated, all of that will play a role. right now we have half the
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country that doesn't use masks as the other half of the country. i think that'll start to homogenize as more people are vaccinated and not worried so much about serious disease and as cases fall as more people develop some level of immunity because even if it's not sterilizing it will be much lower. vaccinated people are much less contagious than the unvaccinated. jonathan: thank you sir. got to leave it there. tom keene, we have a problem with the messaging. tom: the messaging is there, it's regional, it's geopolitical. i think every story is different , again i'm going to go back to the messaging of corporations, their profits in their future, certainly their short-term strategic plan is at risk and companies are making the action
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here. companies in the united states almost acting as surrogate for government. jonathan: you think others will follow jp morgan? tom: i think they will follow visibly and it will be interesting to see if we see people follow quietly paid jonathan: in the statement from j.p. morgan it suggests their clients are the people who are turning around to them and saying we want to make sure people come to see us are vaccinated. the clients were pushing it and jp morgan responded. lisa: how similar of a story will that be for the airlines. mandating vaccines, those will feel more comfortable getting on those planes. at one point -- at what point is it driven showing discretion for those that do prioritize. jonathan: incredibly divisive conversation still on topics like this one. lisa: they are politicized and perhaps that's a messaging problem. jonathan: lisa abramowicz,
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jonathan ferro, tom keene. we bounce back from yesterday's big loss. yields higher two basis points. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> what the fed does is essential. >> i think it is clear inflation is going to remain elevated and that will be an issue. >> appointment is important for market, it is earnings. >> you have to worry about the service sector and those connected to travel and leisure. >> it is hard to understand where we are in the cycle. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city and worldwide, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. up one third on the s&p. the damage done to the nasdaq, remarkable. tom: let's look at big tech.


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