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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  October 1, 2021 1:30pm-2:00pm EDT

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possible suspension or termination. that is new guidance from the biden administration is that all new hires must be fully vaccinated. the instructions mark the latest step in president biden's push to increase vaccination rates nationwide. he announced all federal employees must get the shot u.s. supreme court justice brett kavanaugh has tested positive for covid-19. justice kavanaugh has no symptoms and has been fully vaccinated since january. his wife and daughters tested negative. the court begins the nine-month term on monday and all nine justices are fully vaccinated or the u.s. government's challenge to a texas law banning abortion after six weeks to pregnancy will have an impact far beyond reproductive rights. that is what a justice
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department lawyer told a judge today saying the law encourages "vigilante justice." they are asking the court to temporarily put the ban on hold. it is the most restrictive abortion law in the united states. the white house plans for 30 countries to join forces against ransomware attacks and other cybercrimes. officials say the first meeting will be this month, hosted by the u.s. and held virtually they also plan on looking in to the illegal use of cryptocurrency. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
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amanda: welcome to bloomberg markets. alix: here are some of the top stories we are following. inflation red hot today consumer prices in the euro and the usp we will break down all of the data with a chief economist. less airline stocks taking off. reflation stocks -- inflation stocks. a record again. the energy crunch worsens, the latest on the supply crisis across the globe. amanda: reopening trained playing out across the averages. a pretty unmixed picture for the s&p 500. definitely seeing strength everywhere except health care and that is specifically in
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vaccine stocks. weakness out there you can see inflation definitely a concern but the enthusiasm and potential for looking beyond where we are is certainly on the minds of investors and so is inflation. coal hitting record levels. that has some more into crypto. take a look at is looking -- take a look at some of those. we do have the bank of international settlement, central banks getting together and talking about how to make a digital currency work. you can make the case that it is very good. alix: for what it's worth, inflation readings both sides of the atlantic, more than expected
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in the euro area, the highest in 13 years. here in the u.s., a measure rose from a month earlier and four point 3% from a year earlier, the largest annual increase since 1991. we reacted to the reports. >> inflation isn't going down. it is hot and if you do the physical calculation, it is very unlikely they can get to the target. they're going to and up again. alix: the number one song of 1991, everything i do i do for you by bryan adams. amanda: he was my first love
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when i was 16. he didn't know it but he was. looking at the energy crisis, some of the previous temporary or transitional crises will be with us longer than we thought. it will show up in the industrial base. this will have repercussions for sure. amanda: aneta markowska we have with us -- we have with us aneta markowska from jeffries. we have heard the federal reserve seems confident. are we seeing anything that should test the confidence?
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aneta: the fed seems less confident. we have gone from three months to six months and possibly seeing inflationary measures persist longer. i think the fed is getting concerned and that is why they want to get tapering underway, almost in spite of next week. alix: 20 think about inflation -- what do you think about inflation. are we looking at a higher inflation expectation world? aneta: we are back to the levels of inflation expectations we saw before the great recession, where it wasn't seen as a huge issue. they are moving in that higher direction if you consume that
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momentum continues, we can get to a point where it might become self-fulfilling. that is one of the reasons i disagree with the stagflation narrative is because in this scenario, people don't expect higher prices because they don't think they will persist. what we are seeing is spending remain very resilient and not seeing any lower demand except for maybe the auto industry but that is really just because of the supply chain issues. amanda: it has been a while
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since we talked about the shape of the letter. if he is like we may be back to a w. the pent-up demand is real and at some point we will get a sharp covering and that maybe what is trading into the sentiment on markets today here is that your expectation and when would that be? aneta: i think in the fourth quarter. we look at the spending numbers today. we are going to see weakness because of what consumption did in july. we have already reversed some of that negative momentum in august and that is a better trajectory. most importantly, consumers have the firepower. the combination with decreasing
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cases and kids started to get vaccinated, i think that creates a perfect storm around the holiday season when people are finally able to get together with their families and that could unleash the pent-up demand for travel and also increased spending on goods. i think the fourth quarter could surprise. alix: this may be splitting hairs, but is it inflation or reflation that you are kind of looking at when the demand comes in? aneta: i think in terms of inflation data we are past reflation. if you look at a lot of the categories, the level we were on before the pandemic, we are now overshooting. i think we are past the point of
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just relating, we are seeing real evidence of reflation. i think it will get better before it gets worse. now you have congestion and when you look at what is happening in the rental market, i think there is more upside for inflation. maybe things get better early next year when you see demand decline and businesses can start building inventories, but i think the next four to five months we are still going to see increased inflation readings. alix: really appreciate your time. as we look ahead, we are going to look ahead for the outlook for travel. we have the former ceo and chair of travel oscar munoz, coming up next.
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amanda: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm amanda lang alongside alix steel. merck' s new pill says it will reduce symptoms for covid 50%. it could lead to a simple way to treat many virus patients until they get to the hospital. and we are seeing a merck post their biggest gain on 12 years and hurting some of the vaccine stocks. alix: it was in outperform and has been being watched. moderna is down 12% on that news. i guess the idea is if you have
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the therapeutic is easy to take and would reduce hospitalizations and you would need a vaccine but it is very different than what we saw on vaccine monday. we had the whole market pop pick this more idiosyncratic. amanda: i think that is right and you identifying a perfect employee -- a perfect point. this is how we live is covid and return past the point that we think we will not have to live with it. u.s. airlines and air canada 5%. is this an accurate predictor of optimism for this industry. with the former united air chairman oscar munoz. thank you for your time they let's start with the state of the industry for airlines. there will be gathering next week. what do you think will be the prevailing mood here? we are way below pre-pandemic
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capacity. oscar: thanks for having me. i think the leisure market, when you see the airports as crowded as they are, it is the business market that will be important. data has moved the market because business travel will resume. other than that, everybody has come out of the cash burning a year that we have had as an industry and are starting to make off its and united was one of the first to report that. large quarters for -- orders for aircraft moving forward. i would say from the report before this, the fourth quarter or quarter we are hoping for that recovery fairly soon. alix: it looks like you are at a . i feel like they are few and far between maybe you had to travel.
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where are you, what was it like? oscar: it was my second one. in san francisco we had 1000, very safe, had lots of outer activities. today at latitude, it is dear to my heart and my latinx core. it is a conference where we bring together leaders from all over the country, business, politics, as well as entertainment and we announce several things. we announce gdp reports. as everyone has heard, a very significant to $.7 trillion of gdp in this country here to put it in context, if you match it for the rest of the world, the -- as we know, we announce reports like this, but we also
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announce reports like the report this morning where 50% of small businesses are latino owned and managed. 1% of those ventures ever get funded the big capital, venture capital, private equity, and banks. our path and objective of this conversation every year is to do nothing more than educate. with the ceo of nike, i could go down the list. i had marc benioff last -- the last couple of years. the financial capability, and the report stated if lupino businesses -- latino businesses were funded at the level other businesses, the annual rate of revenue to the country would be in the trillions. so it is a business concept instead of just diversity and
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inclusion in that is what we are trying to project. amanda: super important. we can't have you here and not ask you if you are running an airline today what would you be thinking and what would be keeping you up at night? the input cost must be on the mind of hardy lock-in and what do you see a. what is your thought about what your peers are dealing with? oscar: it has always been a difficult aspect. it is difficult to do all of that who you contrite many methods and everyone tried hedging forward with everything you do in the market. away to do this long-term and is what united started doing a long time in the world of sustainability. have to develop the market for alternative fuels. that is the only way it will happen. from the business perspective, the fact that the volatility of
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those prices kills a business model. if we could have sustainable fuel at a sustainable price it would be rate for investors and the client -- and the planet and consumers. alix: thank, oscar munoz, former united airlines ceo. prices rising around the globe. the latest on the supply crunch, not. -- next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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amanda: old program -- alix: visit israel margaret." energy -- this is "bloomberg markets." i want to bring in our commodity
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specialist. if you put on your trading hat and coat at the same time, are we looking at an asymmetric risk? so much price in on the bullseye for energy. is there risk of a series downside potential? >> that is what traders are thinking. it looks like bloomberg did at the first of the year. markets started to price in for the winter cold season. if there is any time natural gas spikes, it is between here and december. i think we will look back at this like we did lumber from a few months ago. amanda: as the saying goes, the cure for high commodity prices is a high commodity price. when you take it out, are we seeing the failure of the companies and i don't know whether that is enough on the
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supply side or fed is too much of a middle man to represent a change. is this different than lumber in the sense that we are seeing a bit of a shakeup in supply? mike: it is different. but 10 years ago that would've been more of a risk. the u.s. cannot wait to bring supply into europe. the question is time. i look at it as all the pent up supply in pennsylvania waiting to come this way. it is a matter of time. overly we don't have a cold winter but if we do that will be a bit of a problem. alix: i wonder what positioning is like. bank of america is looking at diesel at 100. lng prices trading at $190 a barrel for brent. our investors and hedge funds guys going on on commodities or
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staying out? how clean are we? mike: the shorts are getting stuck out. -- stopped out. making the calls typically when i hear that, that usually means a longer-term eke coming in. -- a long-term peak coming in. it happened in lumber, beans, i look at brent staying around 80 and supplies coming back and u.s. shale coming back and curtailing demand. we just hit and now there will be a gap in the way down and it is a question of how high it goes and that is the hard part. amanda: one piece that is different is china saying secure your energy supply at any cost. how does that factor in? mike: it is amazing how china has become bad for copper and good for natural gas. what is happening in china is bad for commodities across the
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board. they are pushing back on free market capitalism. they are just pulling back in the economic growth story and now it is a short-term situation. amanda: thanks so much that. how long it lasts will be a factor for lots of people. we will continue to watch a bit of reopening trade but a lot of factors that could make investors nervous today. that is it for us today. ♪
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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first world news. president biden is meeting with
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democrats on capitol hill today for talks about how to advance his economic agenda. disagreements between democratic moderates and conservatives on the size and shape of the larger plan delayed a vote on the infrastructure bill thursday. charting the course of the covid-19 pandemic during the coming months is likely to involve a more transitional winter nuisance -- the flu. as countries lift restrictions, travel resumes, and colder temperatures set in, it will probably start circulating as well. efforts are underway to lessen the strain on health systems dealing with both illnesses. a new u.k. study found it is safe for people to get covid and flu shots at the same time. a new covid antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 50%. that is according to an interim analysis of the trial. merck is

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