tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg October 1, 2021 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
and alix steel. ♪ guy: friday the first, 30 minutes until the close. eurozone inflation hitting a 13 year high with industry warning supply chain problems last well into next year. european gas prices hit a record 100 euros of megawatt hours. russian gas flow into germany apparently down nearly 80%. french utilities and energy surge as paris takes action to shield consumers from this energy price hike. that feels like -- let's take a look at what this means for markets. equities on day one of the new corner, the new month down. we are down around .5%.
what is interesting is the pound is popping back after being battered over the last few days, sterling up .5%. alix: a big part of that is the dollar is finally taking a break after that powerful rally. is it a buy the dip friday? i genuinely do not know. choppy economic data coming out. personal spending better than expected. inflation jumping higher in the u.s., then you have the ism with a long leadtime shortages but the order book was still so strong. we have that playing out within the market. again the rotation out of tech into cyclicals. cathie wood's etf's other biggest ever quarter outflows in the third quarter. if you use that as a proxy protect it is down .4%. energy higher 1.4%. natural gas futures off 4%.
as you pointed out, that story not over. large calls coming out of bank of america. prices could be $120. you could see brent at $100 if it gets bad. 10 year yield at 1.48%. as you get heavy on tech you're getting buying in the bond market. guy: let's talk about the inflation number. inflation in the euro area jumping to 3.4%. what does this mean for the next quarter, let's bring in bloomberg siena brando -- i keep hearing the ecb tell me the price hikes will be temporary. does today's data confirm or deny that idea? >> it certainly confirms it. it shows energy was very strong
in september. price pressures are expected to pick up further until the end of the year. that is expected. the risk policymakers have started to identify is the persistent supply pressures will mean inflation itself might be stronger than expected. the wages will increase as a result. it is much too early to draw any conclusions from this. for now they stick with the message. it is transitory. by high much -- by how much, we will have to see. alix: a huge part of that particular impacting inflation expectations is a deepening global energy crunch. natural gas prices in europe and asia pushing to the equivalent of $190 a barrel.
that is something the oil market has never seen. bloomberg's isis alameda joins us now. what is your focus today? isis: it has to be china. there is no other story but china coming into the market and ordering its energy companies to buy supplies at all costs. that is what is driving markets. it is going to be a battle for supply this winter and we are not just talking gas but we are talking coal, lng, how do we keep the right -- how do we keep the lights on will be the real focus of the global market. to me there is no other story but china. guy: the other story i would make is the weather. i keep coming back to this. in all seriousness, as i look at what is happening, and my looking at the biggest trading houses having the biggest advantage because they are going to have the best data? the question is a serious one. who has the best meteorologist?
is that what is going to determine who comes out of this on top from a trading point of view? isis: yes and no. but one thing we are seeing is people are going to be paying attention to the weather. every big oil nature or utility or trading company will have their meteorologist, but one thing we are seeing is utilities are being hit with governments, with governments trying to soften the blow for consumers in imposing windfall taxes on utilities. even the best meteorologist cannot offset that. i think a lot of what is left in terms of profits, the traders are out there to make a killing. guy: isis alameda. let's talk about the weather. a cold winter could skyrocket energy prices. let's bring energy aspects senior global gas analyst. james, slightly flippant question but it is a serious question.
are we basically now in the hands of the meteorologist in terms of what happens next? the energy prices have rocketed. i am assuming a lot of the bad news is already in the price. we simply do not know what the weather will be. james: it is true, the gas market is extremely sensitive to the weather. it is a global commoditized market these days. if it is cold in asia that will affect energy across the pacific basin as we saw last winter. we will also have a big draw in storage, big draw and heating supplies. it is going to be heavily dependent on that but we are already in a very high-priced market in a very difficult market for this winter. alix: a lot of other commodities like oil, brent, diesel prices are all moving higher on the
expectation we will see gas to call or gas to oil switching. have we literally seen that switching happen? james: the gas to coal switching has largely already happened. we have been monitoring this over the course of the summer. quite a long way to telegraph gas losing its defensive edge of her coal and the share that thermalenern has led to coal stepping in. part of the global coal market is linked to chinese coal caused by the atlanta basin going to the pacific basin. traditional coal prices, russia, columbia, south africa, all of those have been joining in the pacific basin. no indeed to the other commodities -- this is nothing we have been seeing in decades. this is quite difficult to generate that switch. it is a very tight market.
guy: where are we in terms of inventory, and where are the russians? that appears to be a key aspect of what is going to happen this winter with europe. i read a report earlier suggesting the russians might have to stepien in by gas in europe to satisfy some of their contracts. -- to step in and buy gas in europe to satisfy some of their supplies. how off of the pace are we in terms of supply? james: we have three storage you want to look at. one would be european storage. another is rusted nation -- russian destination storage. that is extremely low. that is a concern for delivery this winter. if they cannot increase pipeline if denominations are high. in terms of the aggregate european storage we are going
into below adpcm -- below 80 bcm. in ukraine we are down about 10 bcm. traders will be demanding more gas from the european nations. the final element is russian storage itself. russian has about 75 bcm of storage capacity. it has been going fast and china to fill that story ahead of the winter. if it does reset that storage, it could loosen the russian balance and give more gas to europe. a lot of that depends on when nf to -- on when nord stream 2 starts up. alix: commodities are cyclical. the more supply comes online then prices fall and supply is paired back. are we seeing the same kind of supply response we would have assumed if we had seen prices like this, or are we in for a new type of cycle? james: it depends on the lead
times for generating that supply. if you look the short-term increases we have seen that. we have seen how cheer increasing its volumes of gas for the southern european market . a big increase in iberia and italy. europe has been ramping up its production -- norway has been ramping up its production. russia is not delivering gas in line with the pre-pandemic baseline. that is able to increase and a significant way and will stay tight for a while until we get a global buildout and that will take years. alix: james waddell of energy aspects. if all you get more supply, what is the downside for prices? coming up come the impact on the equity market and your investment in europe. hannah gooch peters will be joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> we are heading towards the stagflation scenario. growth slowing across europe. also the u.s. data. they are slowing as well. this is manufacturing and services. alix: that was chris williamson, iah chief economist. what this shows coming you can see it echoed in the final read we got today is the stagflation debate. i did not get that as much in the ism in the u.s., but the idea that we had higher inflation and weaker growth because prices are weighing on that growth potential and weighing on those orders. guy: it'll be interesting to see
whether the market is going to price this in. we have seen a 5% drawdown. bank of america is shifting from a goldilocks scenario, low inflation, optimal growth, to an anti-goldilocks outlook scenario. that is francisco's call. basically be away saying they expect into -- basically boa saying they expect industries to suffer from energy shortages, risks out of china, and supply chain constraints. we have gone from goldilocks -- i imagine the interest in goldilocks is three bears, which does not sound good for the market. alix: that is very clever. nice jobs. guy: bears are coming. alix: if you take a look at francisco's quote which is we
are one storm away from the next macro hurricane. high energy prices will have disastrous impact on the economy. tie that in with the call about how you will see everything rollover a little bit. how do you price for that at this point, especially when something goes through every other economy? guy: no, but europe is a much more exposed economy to the global economy that the u.s. economy. that is part of their 10% drawdown call. the sell side does seem to be capitulating. a whole range of different firms like morgan stanley out in front. mr. wilson talking about a little bit in advance of others. that's get another voice into the discussion. hannah gooch-peters, global investment analyst. bank of america think european equities could be off by 10% by year end. what you think of that call? hannah: i think you have to be
very careful about your stock selection. there'll be opportunities left right and center for those willing to look through short-term volatility caused by energy crises and regulation area noise in china with ever grand and inflationary concern. globally you could be looking at drawbacks and parts of the market that have become very overvalued but also those drawbacks could present opportunities for people looking at stock selection but have a longer term view. alix: like where? hannah: for us looking in europe specifically, luxury goods could advance. they have come back around 15%. you locate the likes of lvmh, l'oreal. they have had worries about inflation, which we have managed to show through the strong pricing power. there will pass sectors without
impact the margins come that exposure to the end consumer in china which people are worried about because of this wealth distribution now, if you look at a company like lvmh, they have had about a 15% pullback, which has impacted valuations. it is still expensive. that said, if we are looking at a company that is growing, we reckon 8% compound growth forward, 4.5 percent free cash flow yield. it is two yield -- two years forward. it is not as impacted by these inflationary concerns because they have brands, so not having these pricing pressures. we are very positive on that going forward. guy: this speaks to one of the things that has been taking place in the market. that has been the rolling rotation. the luxury names got hit a few weeks back on china. we see it in the state with
tech, you get a look at what is happening with tesla. energy has been on the upside. if we were to see an index correction, how my protecting myself below that? joy need to buy sectors that have -- do i need to buy sectors that have preceded the index correction with a sector correction? is that how i protect myself? hannah: you have to be mindful of valuations. we believe that parts of the markets that have exposed and stretch valuations such as small-cap tech, you can look at the biggest companies in europe, asml, five years forward it is still on a 25 forward price ratio. we want to be exposed to parts of the market that have sustainable secular growth trends, sustainable earnings we can predict going forward and we -- and more reasonable valuations we can help protect
on the downside and also parts of the market that are overvalued. alix: what you do with financials in that case? with expectations the highest since 2015, financials and insurers have not rallied to the same extent. you can make the argument they are more insulated. what you do with them? hannah: we had a move in financials, especially since the vaccine news came out last october. to be honest, we completely avoid them altogether. we do not like the detriment on the balance sheet. we tried to avoid that and invest in companies that have cleaner balance sheets and the growth in earnings we can see to predict going forward. we saw what happened in march of last year to those companies that did have that exposure in terms of balance sheets. it is kind of aware to scenario
-- a where to scenario. guy: energies have had a great run. i'm wondering if we are getting to the point where a lot of the negative news is already priced in and i'm wondering how you take that news and put into the energy stocks. energy stocks have not captured all of the upside in the energy price, but have we received a rollover in energy prices how would that hit the energy sector? hannah: there has been a huge move in the energy sector and the last month. 9.5% versus the s&p down 5%. there is a big diversion in returns. we do not have exposure. one of the major reasons we do not is if you look at the past 10 years the energy sector has only returned 20% in u.s. dollars on total return basis. if you look in a capital return basis, -20% versus a market
return overall of over 200%. these companies long-term and short-term have performed very well. over the long term they are not growing compound for investors and away we have invested in quality stocks. guy: always good to get your take. thank you very much. hannah gooch-peters, thank you very much, indeed. this is bloomberg. ♪
bloomberg business flash. a look at the biggest business stories in the news. they were two investing whales well-known to each other but invisible to the market except for the prices in their wake. one of their names became amos. bill hwang whose archegos spectacularly clapped. the other -- spectacularly collapsed. the other remained. as it turns out, hwang and lee have both piled into the same companies. market participants estimate it amounted to 40% of the shares. when archegos portfolio wrapped up margin calls, gfx wasn't tumbling. it took a hit and by the end of august was down 32%. how hwang and lee came so heavily into the same stock is now intense interest for
short-sellers, including carson block. in the u.k. drivers left to wait weeks for the dazzling surprised to return to normal. trade association says more will have no gas after the crisis started in another 27% have only one great in stock. a covid antiviral pill reduces the risk for harmful infection or death. merck is hoping the study -- will seek an emergency investors. that is your latest business flash. guy: more good news on what is happening in the fight back against covid. delta seems to have disappeared from the narrative. it is amazing. a few weeks back it is all we could talk about now we're focused on christmas, the supply chain story from the inflation narrative seems to have completely taken over. good news keeps coming like the story from merck that maybe
there is more evidence to support that. alix: the reaction to the market was not like we saw on vaccine monday, once we got the good data from pfizer. it did have an impact on merck in particular, also moderna and vaccine peers fell as we got that. the idea you will not get a shot if you can get treatment that is effective. there are still that trade in the market. much more localized. guy: i do not know what it will look like in a few weeks once we start getting seriously into winter. taking a pill is much easier than having to go to the hospital and get an infusion. astrazeneca is the biggest drag on the ftse 100. will return to that logistic story. mark manduca joining us in a few minutes time. this is bloomberg. ♪
the first session of the new month. it is turning out to be a fairly negative one. the main markets in europe, the ftse, the dax, the cac 40, all tracking lower today. the ftse is underperforming. we have a stronger pound. it is a translation effect in terms of the revenue story. you get that mechanical relationship. there are interesting narratives. astrazeneca is the biggest point drag on the ftse 100. interesting we have this on the same day we have burke out with its new therapeutic which you could take as a pill. much easier to distribute. the ftse 100 down around 1%. the cac 40 a little better. the energy stock or utility stop providing the support. i will explain the reasons why in just a moment. in terms of the breakdown let's talk about what is happening with the stoxx 600. we are actually well off our lows.
this afternoon has been more positive, influenced by what we have seen in the united states. still down .6%. we are getting into the low 450's. we were in the four 70's a few weeks back. -- 470's. today down another .5%. let's move on and talk about what is happening with the story this week to give your idea of how the sector rotation story has worked. we are now in this ongoing sector rotation narrative, this ongoing correction for individual parts of the market. this week it has been the energy story and the bank story that has driven data. energy a driver on both sides of the atlantic. the banks a driver on both sides of the atlantic as well. a big move we have seen, the bank of england seems to have been the catalyst. seems to be helping out the banking sector. the bottom end of the market,
the stretch valuations as a result of the higher yields. technology down 8.2%. talk about the individual names. electricity de france, the french government out with how it will limit these high energy prices for consumers. there is some fear we could see this hitting utilities. the way they will do it is with attack story. they will reduce tax rather than the tariffs. as a result of which that is very positive for the utilities. it is not going to see that affect bleeding through to them. the tax will do the heavy lifting. concerned head of the election next year. we get a repeat of the story in france. iag up 4.74%. the airline sector doing well. this is interesting because i
wonder as we start to see increasing capacity being brought back on, whether there'll be some fear and some of these airlines. we talked to united yesterday about what impact higher prices could have. are you nervous? will you be bringing back capacity? is a higher energy cost going to be one of those factors that makes you even more nervous about bringing that capacity back online? then you have daimler. the auto sector has had a fairly good run. up .72%. we will get a vote on splitting the company. we will see the truck business and the mercedes business, which is what the company will get rebranded as. there is an ongoing fear in the sector about what is happening with chips. alix: we saw toyota saying u.s. car sales for september were down 22%. you can imagine that is still supply issue. here to talk about daimler,
let's hear from the ceo about it. >> we are working with our supply partners to gradually improve the situation. what the big chipmakers are saying is the constraints will be with us throughout the year of 2022. we are hoping on a better level than what we have experienced during this year. guy: it is just one of the issues. the story about ships feeds into so much. i appreciate what is happening on the car front. i am more interested on the truck front. not only do you have a lack of drivers, but there is also evidence that it is hard to get hold of new trucks as well. another factor that a starling the supply chain story. alix: i am interested to see, there's so much from the actual input cost of staff, that can be anything, like silicon prices are up 300%, it can be that all the way to labor. there is a huge chain that goes
there and you're seeing it everywhere. i'm interested in what will still be there in 18 months and what can we manage and deal with? that will be key in how inflation expectations wind up playing out. guy: what i'm trying to figure out is how much inflation is already within the supply chain. we do not know it yet but it is coming towards us. when we were talking to gmm earlier on, they manufacture their stuff in the middle of the summer for christmas. you are seeing that story being spread out. how much of that is still in the water? let's figure out what is going on in the supply chain industry in a little more detail. our go to guy in many respects is mark manduca, joining us now on the line. let's talk about what is happening. you see this on a day-to-day basis. what is happening in terms of deliveries? what is happening in terms of logistics.
there are bottlenecks all over the place. how much of a mess is this? mark: i would not be canceling christmas just yet. christmas is definitely happening, it just may be happening a different way across the supply chain. obviously as you would expect companies such as gx will be a solution to the problem. let's not confuse the short-term and the long-term. the northstar and final destination of everything that has happened has clearly not been derailed. on all cyclical seasonal and short-term front you mentioned, this peak season we are going into, this will happen as we mentioned. customers are increasingly choosing to fill their orders on e-commerce channels given the speed e-commerce offers over other channels. it can be more like two to six weeks if you go through the traditional brick-and-mortar route. peak is not canceled, the flow
of goods is changing, we are the magic dust that will solve things through the christmas period. alix: does that mean i can still get what i need to get, i will just have to pay more and be more creative and where i am looking? mark: we will see a shift towards a couple of things. reverse logistics will be an important part of helping the problem. if you think about how the market is shifting away from brick-and-mortar and more towards e-commerce, reverse logistics allows you to get that inventory into the back of the store at the front end to allow the customer to buy it again. an era died beacon of hope such as us that can get that inventory back into the front store will be a demand during this period. the answer is yes, christmas is happening and you will get the goods. guy: explain reverse logistics
for a minute. i assume this means all of the stuff that turns up at my door that we want half off that we are returning? mark: it is slightly worse than that. in some cases it is half, in other cases it is more. in some cases one in three items are being returned. a lot of people are scratching their heads on the macro front. also on the micro front. you're sending 1000 t-shirts into a warehouse in than 1000 t-shirts are going to the consumer and 300 are coming back. it is chaos. you need a partner of choice, one that is technology proficient, to drive the savings and drive the inventory management. alix: it is funny. i ordered items over the coronavirus shutdown period. they would not take it back. they said you can return it, we will refund the money, but do not ship it back to us.
we do not want it in our warehouse, which was a little bananas. we were talking to raven gandhi and he rose prices 20%, what are you seeing in terms of pricing? mark: labor information is an increasing -- labor inflation is increasing problem. not just in the port of los angeles but across the east coast and west coast of the u.s. markets. what i would say is if you think about that macro point, inflation is here to stay, particulate given the various labor subsidy schemes till prevalent in the market. at the micro level, if ever there was a moment for differentiation with employees of choice, now is the time. we have a few open positions and our goal is to win that race by hiring the best talent at great prices. we are seeing strong demand to work in our firm in a tough environment. i also think what will happen is
there will be an added increase for tech. not only is christmas happening, i would say robots are also saving christmas along the way. guy: excellent. just put little white beards on them. in many ways this started a while ago when the airline sector shutdown and cargo disappeared. as the airlines come back online, how much of what is now being shipped by ship or truck goes back onto the airplanes, and how does that affect the cascade effect back down through the supply chain? mark: i knew it was only a matter of time before we started talking about the airlines. you made a good point, which is this idea of hesitancy about bringing capacity back on. affable global aircraft capacity goes in the belly of the plane. capacity has come down, there has been less space that means freight rates have shut up in
the air side. that means people have cascaded their goods from air into see. with the high demand for e-commerce, what you are left with is unsustainably high demand alongside extremely low supply. if there is any hesitancy about bringing that passenger capacity , a.k.a. belly capacity back into the market, you will see those air freight at high rates. sometimes rates can be eight times or 10 times what you see in the container shipping space. do not think people will ship back from containers to airfreight as quickly as you're describing. guy: that is interesting. always a pleasure mark manduca. gxo logistics chief financial officer. we are through the auction. ftse 100, astrazeneca big drag. the pound is something you want to bear in mind. the dax down .6%.
ritika: you're looking at life out of the principal room. coming up, u.s. senator bill haggerty of tennessee. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> my top line has been 1.5 because i believe in my heart that what we can do with what we have now and what we can afford to do without changing our whole society to an entitlement mentality. i do not follow any of them. they are month -- i do not fault any of them.
for them to get theirs, elect more liberals. i'm not asking them to change. i am willing to come from zero to 1.5. alix: joe manchin is a key player in getting past that 3.5 trillion dollars human infrastructure bill which progressives are holding the realtor structure bill hostage to get the progressive one through. it is complicated. greg valliere joins us now. do we get a vote on the real infrastructure bill today in the house? greg: my guess is no. if there is a vote it will not succeed. nancy pelosi is famous for not bringing bills to the floor she is going to lose. guy: the longer this goes on the more the market will get freaked out. what would you say to those who are worried? greg: i would say do not freak out. it will not be a humongous bill like $3.5 trillion. it will be a lot less, if there is a bill.
the other thing i think is enough get is taxes. the markets have worried about a big chunk of new taxes. i'm beginning to think the tax kit is either going to be modest or nonexistent. i think there is a chance because of kristin cinema -- senator kyrsten sinema who says no taxes at all, there is a chance there to be no taxes as this bill continues to stumble. that is a good story for markets. alix: what you think markets are pricing in an terms of deal? $1.5 trillion or is the market price zero? greg: $1.5 trillion, maybe $1.8 trillion is the most. the question becomes what are they willing to take. they have to know there is a decent chance in 2022 the democrats will lose the house. they may be well advised to take what they can give because there
may not be much more down the line next year. guy: you bring up the issue of elections. let's talk about the last election. i keep going back to a line i heard the other day. -- is the fed chair going to put this potentially? if it is not pile, is lael brainard far enough to the left? if not, could we see another name tossed into the ring. the consolation prize for the progressives could be don't get the infrastructure bill. the consolation prize is the regulation front. you look at new regulators,
these are very activist progressives who want to regulate with a heavy hand. then the ultimate story as you suggest is the fed chairman. i still think jay powell is the favorite, but he is no longer issue in as he was two or three months ago. elizabeth warren gave a lot of progressives cover by speaking so harshly about jay powell. i think a lot of other progressives may jump on board. alix: we are looking at a world where we may get an infrastructure bill for the human infrastructure part, a world with more regulation where the tax burden may not be as significant and we are still heading to a debt ceiling. does this calculus disrupt the fed and their monetary policy right now? greg: it is a great point. within the federal reserve they have to be making contingency plans for how to deal with a real default crisis. i'm not sure if it is october 18
or november 7. it may slip into november. the main point is the fed may have to come up with extraordinary measures. they do not want to advertise it because that can make people on the hill less cooperative for getting something done. i think the fed's trillions of dollars may have to be deployed, at least some of it, to buy bonds in danger of default. guy: the shockwave that would send around the global economy are absolutely enormous. this would be a massive financial event. how do you handicap that? you are portraying it as something we could handle if the fed steps up. how big of a risk is it? greg: i think maybe a 10% or 15% risk, a genuine default crisis. that is pretty low. at some point if the markets look a little jittery and an awful lot of people on wall street and businesses will pick up the phone and call mitch
mcconnell and say cut a deal. i think the democrats are willing to capitulate. ironically, i think the big battle in washington on the debt ceiling is the terms of the surrender for the democrats. i think they would like to surrender. mitch mcconnell is not making it easy. guy: as ever greg, we believe there. -- as ever. greg, we will leave it there bank. greg valliere. thank you much indeed. this is bloomberg. ♪
under the surface. kriti gupta is here with the details. kriti: one of the biggest movers is mark. not only were there -- is merck. it works across all variants, including delta. that will be a game changer in fighting the covid-19 virus. looking at some of these other vaccines. novavax, moderna, pfizer all down. you also have china saying -- australia sang china's vaccine is getting approved ahead of their reopening. let's look at another deal catching some news. we talked about how the reopening trait is losing steam. it turns out it is bid hitting zoom shares where it kills about one third of that value. why is the stock up. analysts say they are good standalone companies.
traders saying we think it is a fair bet. though shares up higher. i want to end with crypto stocks. you cannot do a market check without thinking about bitcoin. overdosed to a deviation moves. look what is doing to some of the stocks. merit, riot, coinbase all up in sympathy. let's see if it continues. alix: i do markets without bitcoin a lot, but i respect you keep doing them. monday china markets are closed for golden week. opec and non-opec meetings will happen on monday. that huge. there are calls for opec to ramp up its production of 400,000 barrels of oil a day. bless you get a touring conference in manchester. earnings coming out, and the services index for the ism pretty much for everywhere in europe. that should be pretty interesting. guy: absolutely. the key thing to look ahead is i
will see the bond movie this weekend. alix: it is so true. i am so excited. guy: i will tell you all about it on monday. alix: i know. guy: i hear it is quite good. tesla's virtual agm, looking forward to that. friday jobs day will stop we have a volkswagen esg conference. plenty of things to be looking forward to after what could be an interesting weekend. bond market, bond movie. that wraps it up on tv. coming up, julia coronado, macro policy perspectives founder and president will be joining david westin. me and guide are heading to the cable show on bloomberg digital radio. join us. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, welcome to balance of power. one down and three to go, they took care of funding the government yesterday and beat the midnight deadline but they still have infrastructure, the budget and the debt ceiling to address. return to our washington correspondent now. we will keep the government going, that's good but what's next? joe: no shortage of crises in the nation's capital. nancy pelosi left the house last night after midnight saying they would be a vote today on infrastructure. this follows hours of negotiation that led to no deal last evening, no vote on the